1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,080 Speaker 1: But let's go back to that turbulence. I was speaking about, 2 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: in particular the massive impact of the war in and 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: around run on the availability of fuel in the world 4 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 1: in general, and of course the price at which has 5 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 1: been bought and sold. My next guest is the see 6 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:20,599 Speaker 1: of the Road Freight Association. He would know very very 7 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:23,680 Speaker 1: clearly what impact this is having on those big trucks 8 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: we see on every type of road in every corner 9 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:29,639 Speaker 1: of our country. Gavin Kelly, A very good afternoon, and 10 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 1: welcome to the show. 11 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 2: Good afternoon, John, get after into your listeners. 12 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 1: So just a kind of factual point of departure. What 13 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:44,159 Speaker 1: proportion of the national haulage fleet runs on diesel? 14 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 2: You started the difficult question, don't you, John, is probably 15 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 2: going to be easily around about eighty percent. It's all 16 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 2: a fair to medium hauling, the long hauling, so really 17 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 2: in town you would hind guys running on ninety two 18 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 2: or ninety five. It's got a big portion of the 19 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 2: feet at all. 20 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:09,119 Speaker 1: Okay, So I mean ballpark eighty percent, and that's really 21 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: all I was looking for. No two numbers after the 22 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: decimal points or anything like anything like that, but that 23 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:22,759 Speaker 1: that would obviously suggest a significant vulnerability to your members 24 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: and other haulage companies that are not part of the RFA. 25 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 1: What are your members saying about the availability of diesel. 26 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 2: Well, that's interesting because there are a couple of speculations 27 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 2: that have been going around on a number of bits 28 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 2: of media here and there. Diesel has not been in 29 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 2: short supply. What has happened is that is that some 30 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 2: deliveries to too large operators they have held back twenty 31 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 2: percent of the delivery, saying, you know, we haven't quite 32 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 2: got yet, but we know there's lying in the depots, 33 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 2: and there is out at the storage tanks. So the 34 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 2: diesel has been flowing here and there been four courts 35 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 2: with you and I will call a petrol station that 36 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 2: have limited supplies so that people don't come rock up 37 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,079 Speaker 2: with ten ten tanks or cans and run those in 38 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 2: their car. But at this stage there isn't a shortage. 39 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 1: I'm sure you guys have a maybe not long range, 40 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: but certain medium range dashboard as to where everyone gets 41 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 1: their diesel from. How much is in the country, how 42 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 1: much is on the waters, how much is still the 43 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: subject of arm wrestling and negotiation. I mean, if we 44 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: were to look three months down the line, if this 45 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 1: hasn't improved, are we still in fairly steady and stable 46 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 1: waters or does it get choppy down the line. No, 47 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: we're in. 48 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:49,839 Speaker 2: Pretty stable waters. It's one thing that the government has 49 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 2: actually got right, even if it's only two about seventy percent, 50 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 2: so sixty eight percent of our cost or fuel if 51 00:02:57,280 --> 00:02:59,639 Speaker 2: you want to use that term, whether it's crude or 52 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 2: for product, is coming from Nigeria. Another twenty one percent 53 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 2: comes from the far East. Of course, that could be 54 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 2: impacted by what's happening up on the other side of 55 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 2: the moose straight That's what I had that motorbike apost 56 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 2: it's got no fuel problem. And then the remainder it 57 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 2: comes from from you know, the straight up a moves 58 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 2: of Iran, that that sort of area. So we really 59 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 2: don't have a problem in terms of sourcing fuel. But 60 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 2: if that goes paar shaped, if our good, good uncle 61 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 2: Donald decides to do some really strange things, we might 62 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 2: find then that the world starts to go crazy in 63 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 2: terms of price. And that's really what's killing us, isn't it. 64 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 2: Because Nigeria is selling it's oil in a dollar price, 65 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 2: it's not selling it in a real I saw a 66 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 2: nine Gerrian dinner price or whatever the currency may be. 67 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: So one of the things I've just read and I 68 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: don't know it's what it is. We have a vulnerability 69 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: to India's policy decisions. But this was coming out of 70 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg today. Nigeria's in a big part in India has 71 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 1: announced a series of tax changes, including a level levee 72 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 1: on fuel exports, and apparently we import as much as 73 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 1: twenty four percent of both petrol and diesel from India. 74 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 1: First of all, is that correct? And secondly, if they 75 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,720 Speaker 1: put this levee, it's a twenty one point five rupee 76 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 1: per liter and eight cents more or eight rupees more 77 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: on jet fuel. Does does that start hitting the price? 78 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 1: Or does do haulage companies not use a lot of 79 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 1: diesel from from from India? 80 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,920 Speaker 2: Well, when you full, you know your tank, there isn't 81 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 2: the sign saying from India or right right? So the 82 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 2: twenty one percent I said that came from the east 83 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 2: is India and that area the roopee, thank goodness, is 84 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 2: still a little bit we in the rand. So eight 85 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:06,039 Speaker 2: roopee doesn't equate to eight rand. It's about four rands 86 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 2: more at least four round a little bit less than that, 87 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,720 Speaker 2: So that's not going to have a tremendous impact. But John, 88 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 2: every time you add something, you know, even if it's 89 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 2: twenty cents down and fifty cents then around here it's 90 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 2: all eventually going to add up to that. The question 91 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 2: is going to be where the India, and India doesn't 92 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 2: have its own oil reserves, if India starts to feel 93 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 2: a sharp down with trend in theirs, whether they suddenly 94 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 2: push that price up as well or limit you know, 95 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:38,239 Speaker 2: what's allowed to go out of the country. 96 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 1: So I mean, by and large, Gavin Kelly, we're getting 97 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 1: a sense of confidence from your side government as well. 98 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: Prepared stocks are reasonably abundant, although the flow might not 99 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 1: be great, and clearly the price is a problem and 100 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: looks set to perhaps be an even larger problem down 101 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: the track. But what are the kind of things that 102 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:06,919 Speaker 1: can happen if people are perhaps over cautious or even panicking, 103 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 1: If people would, for example, garden try and buy diesel 104 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 1: and fuel, maybe it became the subject of interest for 105 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: criminal syndicates. Could we start seeing some significant bottlenecks and 106 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 1: if that could happen, how do we stop it happening. 107 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 2: It's it's you've lost three very important little questions in there. 108 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 2: So the first thing is you remember that thing called 109 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 2: COVID where we all went out and bought the paper 110 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:40,720 Speaker 2: and baked Yes, exactly, I couldn't work outs bought baked 111 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 2: beans and toilet paper. Maybe the toilet paper was the insurance. 112 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 2: What So the first thing that will happen is you'll 113 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 2: have a huge demand on on the retail for cours. 114 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 2: That's where the average citizen will go. And of course 115 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 2: they only get deliveries x times a week. And with 116 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 2: there being some supply constraints, you would find that some 117 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 2: four courts would start to go dry. I mean around US. 118 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 2: I see they might have twelve pumps, they're only operating 119 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 2: part of out of six pumps. For example, whether signsane 120 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 2: diesel finished at this pump. So that's the first thing 121 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 2: that there would be, this run on the commodity and 122 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 2: whether local supply could keep up with that. Of course, 123 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 2: as soon as somebody puts the sign saying oh we're out, 124 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 2: that ups the ante and people start buying far more. 125 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 2: So you start having almost this world too drag on 126 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 2: what is actually available down the road from you. So 127 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 2: that's the first thing. The second thing is that there 128 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 2: will be two sets of those who want to profiteer, 129 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 2: those who've got the cash and the tankers and the 130 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 2: wherewithal to go and buy the fuel and then sit 131 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 2: on it and wait for the April the first increase 132 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 2: and then sell it at the nine ten or whatever 133 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 2: round a liter more or even just six rand a 134 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 2: liter more, depending on what they want to make quickly. 135 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 2: That's the first thing. So that's in general, I think 136 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 2: what the fuel companies are trying to prevent is trying 137 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 2: to prevent these opportunistic profiteers. I think something else starts 138 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 2: like at in Parliament and then then finally it's around 139 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 2: and there's been some speculation. You would have seen the 140 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 2: Central Energy Fund and the Department of Mineral Energies of 141 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 2: off the average person in the street in public to 142 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 2: tell them if there are four courtspetrol stations who say 143 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 2: they're empty, but they're not because they're hoarding products so 144 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,319 Speaker 2: that they can then sell the product they bought at 145 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 2: a lower price at a higher price. So it's getting 146 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 2: around those two things. Really, the fuel is lying off 147 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 2: our coast. As far as intech, it's being bought. The 148 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 2: question is are the players that are busy trying to 149 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 2: run the money. So I bought you know, that tanker 150 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 2: at ten million. If I keep it off shore until 151 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 2: the first of April, I can sell it, sell the 152 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 2: product at twenty million, for example. I'm just using numbers 153 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 2: to give the idea. So that's the other thing, and 154 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 2: that's where government, i think, is trying to get everyone 155 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 2: to play fairly, to say, listen, you sell the price 156 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 2: at the price that has been promulgated in the gazette, 157 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:19,440 Speaker 2: at the regulated price, or at the wholesale price, and 158 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 2: people mustn't go and start hoarding up or paying huge 159 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 2: amounts unfairly. 160 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 1: So thank you so much. Kevin Kelly, CEO at the 161 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 1: Road Freight Association. Very interesting what he has to say 162 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 1: that there are supplies, there's tankers waiting off sure that 163 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 1: he thinks might be being let's just say, not sailing 164 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:46,079 Speaker 1: as fast as they can to get here. But yeah, 165 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: there's a lot to keep track of, and I'm not 166 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 1: sure if government has the capacity to actually intervene as 167 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 1: often and as much as they can, but let's keep 168 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 1: and by the way, follow his suggestion if you know 169 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 1: of fuel being held back, or you want to engage 170 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 1: on that particular thing. Please do call us oh seven 171 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 1: two seven O two one seven O two and O 172 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 1: double one eight eight three oh seven O two that 173 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: says seven oh two drive