1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:03,440 Speaker 1: Everything you need to start your day. 2 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:04,920 Speaker 2: We all have a voice. 3 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: Use yours call to one double four six five six seven, 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: Join the conversation. Talk between two and three o'clock this morning. 5 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: An announcement from the White House Donald Trump announcing a 6 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: two week seasfire worth Iran. He's claiming a total and 7 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: complete victory, but there've been very few details on what 8 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:35,480 Speaker 1: actually has been agreed upon the seasfire. Peers conditional. There's 9 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 1: ongoing pressure around Iran's nuclear program. There are stal threats 10 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 1: hanging over key infrastructure in Iran. But it also follows 11 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:51,200 Speaker 1: the days and days of the extreme rhetoric from Donald Trump, 12 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 1: including his threats to not only destroy civilian sites, but 13 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 1: even threatened yesterday to wipe out Iran's civilization. But let 14 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:06,039 Speaker 1: me speak now to international policy and list. Mitchell Plitnik 15 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,759 Speaker 1: out of Maryland in the US. Good morning, Mitchell, really 16 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 1: appreciate your time. As always, let's talk about who chickened 17 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: out here, who folded or who tacoed out here? Trump 18 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: always chickened out. After days and days of extreme rhetoric, 19 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: even his stay threatening to destroy the entirety of your 20 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: own civilization, where do we stand? What are the details 21 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 1: of this two weeks cease fire. 22 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 2: Keen to resist the language of Trump Bowie's chickens out 23 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:38,399 Speaker 2: because not because he didn't. 24 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 1: He did. 25 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:43,400 Speaker 2: He clearly backed off of his threat and was looking 26 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 2: for an our. Fran Pakistan came along and provided him one. 27 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 2: But the problem with Donald Trump is that he makes 28 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 2: so many of his decisions based on his own wounded 29 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 2: ego and telling him me check it out is a 30 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 2: great way to get him to reverse his position because 31 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 2: they'll feel like humiliated, So we try not to use 32 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 2: that terminology. But in fact, he clearly had to back off. 33 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 2: This was a threat that had he carried it out, 34 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 2: literally could have sparked a global war, certainly a global recession. 35 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 2: Had he actually done it, Iran would have responded and 36 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 2: the entire region would have gone up, essentially gone up 37 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 2: in flames. And somebody clearly got to him and convinced 38 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 2: him to back off. Having said all that, the way 39 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 2: he backed off, there is some promise to it. He 40 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 2: did say that there is the basis for the permanent 41 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 2: peace talks. That he was approving was Iran's ten point proposal, 42 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 2: and that would mean that he's willing to talk about 43 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 2: some very serious concessions if he follows through with it. 44 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,639 Speaker 2: Of course, we never know. You know, tomorrow he may 45 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:58,239 Speaker 2: wake up and decide on something different. We really never 46 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 2: know with him. But that statement was promising. Now having 47 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 2: the situation now is still very very shaky. Apparently there 48 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 2: was still a tax being leveled against Golf States and 49 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:17,679 Speaker 2: against Israel and against Iran after the ceasefire was supposedly declared, 50 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 2: so we still have to see what happens there. And 51 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 2: the wild card is always is Israel, who insists that 52 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 2: this ceasefire does not cover Lebanon, whereas the Pakistani Prime 53 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:34,080 Speaker 2: minister said specifically that it does, so that could be 54 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 2: another potential time bomb for this whole thing. 55 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 1: So you're saying, this does look like a credible de escalation, 56 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: but still over the next two weeks, still a highly 57 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: unstable situation. I'm reading that a lot of the pressure 58 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: also coming from Golf State's Kata Dubai Saudi Arabia telling 59 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:58,839 Speaker 1: Donald Trump, well, if you go a hit with your 60 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 1: planned and three strikes on your run, where are the 61 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 1: primary targets that they needs to or out, if not 62 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: regional but international war? Because you don't know, then we 63 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 1: try to rush up the throws they locked. 64 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 2: Behind, that's right. Golf states have been actually pretty divided 65 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:23,160 Speaker 2: on this. They're sending different messages. Saudi Arabia particular has 66 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:29,920 Speaker 2: been sending both hostile messages, hawkish messages, and messages of diplomacy. 67 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 2: I am personally of the belief that they are more 68 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 2: keen for the diplomacy. It just makes more sense from 69 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,280 Speaker 2: their point of view. But the United Arab bevernments has 70 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:41,279 Speaker 2: been very clear about wanting the war to continue, so 71 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 2: we need to wait and see. So far, none of 72 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 2: those states have specifically said what they think about the ceasefire. 73 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 2: I'm waiting with baita bat to see how they do react. 74 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 2: But I think in any case, Trump hasn't been doing 75 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 2: a lot of listening to them, despite all the business 76 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 2: he does with them. I think he's listening a lot 77 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,839 Speaker 2: more to the people close by him who are telling 78 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 2: him he really needs to back away, at least for 79 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 2: the moment. There will be other voices in his ear though, 80 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 2: that are telling him if you do back away, you're 81 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 2: going to look weak. People are going to laugh at you, 82 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 2: and that's really a great way to get Trump to 83 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:23,239 Speaker 2: turn around and start this all up again. 84 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: Reticent too to talk about the cognitive abilities of Donald Trump. 85 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: But never in the history post World War Two have 86 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:40,799 Speaker 1: you had a world leader being so forth the right 87 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:45,039 Speaker 1: in the threats that have been made in the lead 88 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 1: up to the ceasefire, promising utter destruction of an Iranian civilization, 89 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 1: threatening to attack key civilian infrastructure, like, for example, a 90 00:05:57,400 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 1: power station, and it's not just a power station, it's 91 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: power station that then power is a water reticulation system. 92 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:07,919 Speaker 1: It's a power station that provides the electricity that could 93 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: supply power to a hospital where someone is on a 94 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:18,040 Speaker 1: life support machine. What do you make of the out 95 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: of touch threats to a modern post World War two 96 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: legal reality coming from the most powerful man in the world. 97 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 2: I have to say I am always reluctant to make 98 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,599 Speaker 2: statements that sound to bombastic or go too far, But 99 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 2: when it comes to Donald Trump, we are talking about 100 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 2: a man who is clearly not in possession of all 101 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:46,359 Speaker 2: his faculties, and is in control of by far, the 102 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 2: most powerful military in the world, by far the most 103 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 2: powerful nuclear arsenal in the world, and is a completely 104 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:58,719 Speaker 2: irresponsible individual. And unfortunately, the American political system does not 105 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 2: really leave us a path to get him out of office. 106 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 2: So people talk here about what we call what we 107 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 2: have in our constitution, the twenty fifth Amendment, which does 108 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 2: provide for forcing a president out if he's mentally incapacitated, 109 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 2: but you need two thirds of Congress to agree to that, 110 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 2: and his party never will do that. We don't have 111 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 2: a path to get rid of him. And unfortunately, as 112 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 2: I said, you know everything I talked about, you know 113 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 2: every promising note. I have to qualify because I know 114 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 2: that in an hour, in eight hours, in a week, 115 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 2: he could just change his mind, he could just feel differently. 116 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 2: That is incredibly, incredibly dangerous, and to be honest, the 117 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 2: world is not safe until he is out of office. 118 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: Mitchell Plichnik really appreciate your time Senior Foreign Policy and 119 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 1: the space in Maryland in the United States.