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Speaker 1: Seven o two.

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Speaker 2: The Big interview Tuesday will be power Plant Day and

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Speaker 2: Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one. In Iran, there

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Speaker 2: will be nothing like it. Open the effing straight, you

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Speaker 2: crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just watch

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Speaker 2: Praise be to Allah. President Donald J.

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Speaker 1: Trump.

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Speaker 2: Those words there aren't mine, but they're an actual post

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Speaker 2: from the US President. Extraordinary language from the would be

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Speaker 2: leader of the free world. Doctor Oscar Vanjerden is an

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Speaker 2: international relations expert from the University of Johannesburg and joins

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Speaker 2: us now to wade through where we find ourselves in

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Speaker 2: this ongoing conflict. A pleasure, as allays to have you

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Speaker 2: on our show. Thank you for your time. Listeners, Ah

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Speaker 2: there you good. Good to have you on the show

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Speaker 2: as always. I don't know if you heard my introduction there,

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Speaker 2: but that post by the US President Donald Trump threatening

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Speaker 2: the Iranian regime with power Plant and Bridge Day, where

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Speaker 2: he says essentially he's going to bomb Iran back into

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Speaker 2: the Stone Angels. I mean, even for Donald Trump, it's

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Speaker 2: quite an extraordinary thing to say.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely. I mean, for the as you say, the leader

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Speaker 1: of the free world, the strongest economy in the world

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Speaker 1: and most mightiest military. Such explicit language suggests a serious

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Speaker 1: frustration on the part of the President of the United

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Speaker 1: States of America and also indication of just not having

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Speaker 1: any options going forward, and therefore you need to increase

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Speaker 1: the set level. Because, as you know, Bungani, the President

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Speaker 1: Trump has had a few occasions of threatening the Iranians.

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Speaker 1: On March twenty one, he said you'll have five days.

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Speaker 1: On March twenty sixty said ten days. And now the

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Speaker 1: latest is until today. So we'll have to see whether

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Speaker 1: he's going to see it through and what exactly the

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Speaker 1: Runnings are going to do in response.

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Speaker 2: One of the things that this conversation will no doubt

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Speaker 2: highlight is, of course that little inconvenient document, the Geneva Convention,

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Speaker 2: which prohibits attacking or destroying civilian infrastructure, and of course

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Speaker 2: infrastructure that's meant to make the lives of civilians work.

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Speaker 2: So we're talking nuclear power stations, bridges would be a

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Speaker 2: part of it. Certainly, dam's dykes, all of that is

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Speaker 2: prohibited from being attacked, if particular, if it would cause

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Speaker 2: severe civilian losses. If Trump carries this threat through, this

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Speaker 2: is nothing short of war criminal activity, is it not?

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Speaker 1: Absolutely? I think we must also operate within the real world.

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Speaker 1: Ban Guani, because unfortunately, we have seen the systematic distruction

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Speaker 1: of the international order, the rules based international order. We've

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Speaker 1: seen the ignoring of international law. We only have to

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Speaker 1: refer to the ongoing genocide that is being perpetrated by

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Speaker 1: Israel in Gaza and the complicity of so many European

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Speaker 1: countries and of course their main ally and back of

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Speaker 1: the United States of America. So we've seen the disdain

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Speaker 1: that Marco Rubio has demonstrated towards the United Nations and

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Speaker 1: the UN Charter and other multilateral organizations. As you know,

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Speaker 1: the US have withdrawn from them, whether it is the

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Speaker 1: World Health Organization, the World Trade Organization, et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: So unfortunately, I think it is Yet it is important

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Speaker 1: that we reiterate that this is indeed a declaration of

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Speaker 1: war crimes. If indeed he is going to do it,

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Speaker 1: I suspect he is going to do it. He is

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Speaker 1: doubling down because he does not want to accept the

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Speaker 1: strategic defeat of this war, and so he's going to

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Speaker 1: commit war crimes. And he doesn't care because the institutions

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Speaker 1: such as the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal

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Speaker 1: court are also institutions that he is himself and his

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Speaker 1: government has threatened.

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Speaker 2: Directly doxophen heerdon I want you to listen to what

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Speaker 2: the US President said just yesterday that in fact all

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Speaker 2: of this he is being urged and egged on by

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Speaker 2: the Iranian people themselves. Have a listen if.

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Speaker 3: Said, Iranians would be mad if you stop these attacks.

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Speaker 3: But why would they want you to blow up their

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Speaker 3: infrastructure to cut off their power. Wouldn't that be punishing

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Speaker 3: Iranians for the actions of the regime.

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Speaker 4: They would be willing to They would be well, and

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Speaker 4: it's suffering. They would be willing to suffer that in

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Speaker 4: order to have freedom the Iranians have. You know, we've

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Speaker 4: had numerous intercepts. Please keep bombing bombs that are dropping

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Speaker 4: near their homes, Please keep bombing.

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Speaker 1: Do it.

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Speaker 4: And these are people that are living where the bombs

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Speaker 4: are exploding. And when we leave and we're not hitting

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Speaker 4: those areas, they're saying, please come back, come back, come back.

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Speaker 2: He says, this is what the Uranians want.

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Speaker 1: Bani, I'm sure you've seen the mean where Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: is being asked by a psychiatrist. Are these Iranians that

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Speaker 1: you are talking about are they in the room with

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Speaker 1: us at the moment, yes, because this is unfortunately what

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Speaker 1: I'm reminded of. You know, he talks of Iranians, communicating

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Speaker 1: with them, saying that he's doing the right thing, and

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Speaker 1: he is. He is making up these falsehoods as we

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Speaker 1: go along. You know, you you you only have to

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Speaker 1: talk about we have completely obliterated the air defenses of Iran,

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Speaker 1: and yet this week two US jets have been shut

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Speaker 1: down where Trump had to go in with the Armed

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Speaker 1: Forces to do a special operation rescue operation to get

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Speaker 1: the air and out. But the air force have been destroyed.

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Speaker 1: We have obliterated the navy of the Iranians, but yet

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Speaker 1: they somehow, invisibly can maintain the state of harm closure.

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Speaker 1: So you know, these are just lies, and he makes

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Speaker 1: it up as he goes along, and we can only

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Speaker 1: but assume that he's yet again speaking to invisible Iranians

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Speaker 1: telling him please bomb our infrastructure and put us back

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Speaker 1: to the Stone Age, so that somehow there's going to

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Speaker 1: be a regime change. I think it is nonsensical. I

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Speaker 1: think that the fact that Western media entertains it and

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Speaker 1: not called it out is unfortunate. But yeah, we'll have

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Speaker 1: to see whether, indeed, once he bombs the bridges and

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Speaker 1: the energy infrastructure, whether there will be this popular uprising

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Speaker 1: which both him and the criminal LETANIAO war criminal LETANIAO

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Speaker 1: wants to somehow imagine.

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Speaker 2: How I mean you talk about the destruction of multilateral institutions,

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Speaker 2: or at least that the US has pulled out of

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Speaker 2: many of the of the very ones it helped design.

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Speaker 2: One of the things President Trump has done is to

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Speaker 2: constantly criticize his allies, particularly for not assisting the US

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Speaker 2: in this war. Efforts made reference to the number of

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Speaker 2: troops they have in South Korea, for example, in Japan,

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Speaker 2: and NATO seems now at least US membership of NATO

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Speaker 2: seems in doubt from the threats he has made. But

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Speaker 2: of course, as you well know, doctor Fanherda, NATO is

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Speaker 2: a defensive pact. It's an attack again against one is

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Speaker 2: an attack against all. But it certainly doesn't say you

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Speaker 2: may attack and the others are obliged to assist.

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Speaker 3: No.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, Article five doesn't apply here. This is an illegal

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Speaker 1: war of choice. As far as NATO and the Europeans

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Speaker 1: are concerned, the world are concerned, this was an illegal

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Speaker 1: act of aggression. Perpetrated by the United States of America

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Speaker 1: and Israel, and therefore the Article five of NATA doesn't apply.

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Speaker 1: But the Europeans have also made it very clear that

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Speaker 1: they don't want to be party to this particular war

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Speaker 1: of choice. It's not their war. They were not consulted

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Speaker 1: on it, and they're certainly not going to be dragged

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Speaker 1: into it now. Having said that, it is also most

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Speaker 1: unfortunate that most European heads of states, most European governments,

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Speaker 1: find it so difficult to actually condemn this war, to

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Speaker 1: actually say that it is illegal, it must not continue,

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Speaker 1: and it has to stop. They are not prepared to

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Speaker 1: do that either, and so we find ourselves in this quagmire,

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Speaker 1: and the very quagmia that is giving Donald Trumps touch headaches.

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Speaker 1: I fear, as I said Bongani, that there will be

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Speaker 1: no deal in the near future, because if you look

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Speaker 1: from it from the Iranian side, and this is another

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Speaker 1: thing that the Western media that very often don't do,

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Speaker 1: but to look from the Iranian side and stop just

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Speaker 1: calling them a regime that is evil and bad. From

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Speaker 1: their side, they are saying a forty five day ceasefire

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Speaker 1: is not in their plans. They are not prepared to

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Speaker 1: give Israel or the United States some leeway to rebuild

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Speaker 1: up their arms and then have a fresh round of attacks.

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Speaker 1: That's what they want to avoid. They want a permanent

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Speaker 1: peace deal, something much more substantive. Otherwise they're not interested.

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Speaker 2: So what happens next? I mean, one of the things

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Speaker 2: I've also, at least from what's been reported, they've asked for,

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Speaker 2: is reparations for the destruction already wrought on Iran. What

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Speaker 2: happens next? And perhaps is the last question, doctor Faniherd

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Speaker 2: And if you can think of our own engagement this

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Speaker 2: is now in South Africa, our own engagement with this

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Speaker 2: White House. There's been a lot of criticism in terms

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Speaker 2: of how we have handled the Trump administration and whether

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Speaker 2: we could have been more nuanced in our approach, read

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Speaker 2: the room a little better. I'm beginning to wonder if

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Speaker 2: anybody can do that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, I mean on the first part is what's

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Speaker 1: happening now? I think what's going to happen? Because we've

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Speaker 1: seen that the Gulf states in the region unanimously all

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Speaker 1: wanted to persuade America to continue with the invasion and

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Speaker 1: see this war to its conclusion. That was blocked by France,

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Speaker 1: Russia and China at the UN Security Council, but the

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Speaker 1: intent was made clear and that's what the Aralians are

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Speaker 1: seeing that their neighbor that are hosting these American bases

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Speaker 1: and the enemy as they call it, want to see

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Speaker 1: this war continue intensify against the Iranians. And so from

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Speaker 1: that perspective, plus the perspective of having negotiated twice with

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Speaker 1: the Americans and on both occasions will betrayed and their

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Speaker 1: leadership killed in the latest one, the Supreme Leader, they

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Speaker 1: are dealing with an dishonest, negotiating partner that says one

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Speaker 1: thing but acts another thing. They have a region that

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Speaker 1: is against them, so they are going to unfortunately find

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Speaker 1: themselves in the situation of doubling down. Now. The question

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Speaker 1: is on everyone's minds is how long can the Iranians

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Speaker 1: continue with this war? How much missiles and ammunition do

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Speaker 1: they still have? This is the big question. And the Iranians,

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Speaker 1: from what I can sense, and the hardline that they

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Speaker 1: are given, is saying that they can continue with this

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Speaker 1: for weeks, if not months. Store they know that Israel

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Speaker 1: and America has cut know has depleted most of the

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Speaker 1: interceptum ciles which is their defense of shields. They know

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Speaker 1: that the maker has to bring bombs and missiles from

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Speaker 1: America and other parts of the world, which takes time, logistics,

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Speaker 1: and money. So can the US actually sustain it? I

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Speaker 1: suspect and this is the last point in Bongani that

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Speaker 1: America is going to double down over the next couple

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Speaker 1: of days. They are going to bomb and bomb and bomb,

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Speaker 1: and Israel is going to do their part, and Iran

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Speaker 1: is going to respond with the towards Israel some of

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Speaker 1: the American military assets and the Gulf States in terms

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Speaker 1: of infrastructure, bridges and so forth. And then unfortunately, plump

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Speaker 1: is going to be and Israel is going to the

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Speaker 1: one to entertain the issue of nuclear weapons. That's what

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Speaker 1: I think is going to happen.

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Speaker 2: Fasten your seat belts is about to become a more

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Speaker 2: bumpy ride. Doctor oscar Fanjeredo from the University of Johannesburg

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Speaker 2: with Business News. The National Union of