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Speaker 1: Called The Money Show with Stephen Crudees Live on ninety

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Speaker 1: two point seven and one six FM, streaming on the

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Speaker 1: Prime Media Plus.

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Speaker 2: Now and DStv channel eight five six.

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Speaker 3: Well more momentum behind the RAN today and towards the

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Speaker 3: end of last year, finally going below the seventeen dollars

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Speaker 3: to the rand mark yesterday through sixteen forty, been touching

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Speaker 3: at some point sixteen thirty to the dollar today, but

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Speaker 3: coming back a little bit towards the end of the day.

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Speaker 3: Annabel Bishop is the chief economist at Investing. Annabelle good evening,

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Speaker 3: Good to talk to you again. What's driving this rand

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Speaker 3: strength and presumably the fact that the dollar is continuing

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Speaker 3: to slide is an important part of the story.

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Speaker 4: Yes, oh, Stephen, Yes, that's exactly it. So both of

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Speaker 4: those factors, and of course what we have seen is

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Speaker 4: phenomenal rand strength against the dollar on a numeric basis

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Speaker 4: if we have a look at it, obviously close to

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Speaker 4: sixteen now and getting to its worst point of around

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Speaker 4: twenty previously. I mean remember those days before the election.

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Speaker 4: So I think you know, what we're actually finding is

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Speaker 4: that it is definitely more positive optimism both in global

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Speaker 4: financial markets, more risk taking and therefore towards South Africa.

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Speaker 4: But let's not forget that the rand has not seen

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Speaker 4: the same level of appreciation against the Euro or the pound,

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Speaker 4: for example. This has been very much integral to the

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Speaker 4: US dollars weakness.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I've seen some commentary that suggests this rally

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Speaker 3: for the rand looks really quite sustainable and in fact

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Speaker 3: might have some way to run, that it might continue

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Speaker 3: in this direction, certainly against the dollar for a while.

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Speaker 3: Do you agree with that?

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Speaker 4: You know, it's all going to depends on what happens

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Speaker 4: in terms of interest rate differentials, US interest rates, inflation.

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Speaker 4: But you know, in particular, we saw the US finally

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Speaker 4: starting to cut interstrate, you know, towards in the second

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Speaker 4: half of last year, towards the end, and of course

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Speaker 4: that was a great support to the rand, but a

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Speaker 4: great weakness for the US dollar. And of course, with

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Speaker 4: the US expected to cut its interest rates by more

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Speaker 4: this year, that's where this expectation is coming from, that

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Speaker 4: we're obviously going to see a further weakness in the

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Speaker 4: US dollar and you know, then against the rand, obviously

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Speaker 4: pushing the round stronger.

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Speaker 3: Gold has been getting stronger, certainly in dollar terms, because

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Speaker 3: of a week of dollar, but also because people are

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Speaker 3: looking for safe havens moving away from the dollars a

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Speaker 3: sort of safe haven currency. Does that affect the rand

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Speaker 3: in any way, the fact that we still are to

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Speaker 3: an extent an important gold producer.

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Speaker 4: Yes, So you know, if we look at the goldft,

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Speaker 4: I mean on a long term basis, it's certainly been

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Speaker 4: on an upward trend, but that's really accelerated over the

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Speaker 4: last few years, and particularly in the last year. So

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Speaker 4: you know, gold is close to seventy percent up here

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Speaker 4: on yeh, I mean, fantastic increase in PRISS. And of

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Speaker 4: course if we actually have a look at our exports,

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Speaker 4: we see that so Africa's largest export in fact do

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Speaker 4: fall into their catterprhy Our biggest export catchphy is gold platinum,

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Speaker 4: precious stones, and of course that has obviously been greatly

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Speaker 4: beneficial for us as the ran price. As the gold

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Speaker 4: price goes up, actually so too does that impact the

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Speaker 4: rand and obviously increase the value of the rand. So

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Speaker 4: commodity process and particularly metals and minerals have had a

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Speaker 4: very significant impact as well for the currency. And of

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Speaker 4: course you know, the state haven status of gold itself

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Speaker 4: is also key that you know, concerns have started to

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Speaker 4: pull back now in terms of the US economic growth

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Speaker 4: and of course concerns around tariff. So you know, from

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Speaker 4: that perspective we might start to see a bit of

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Speaker 4: a slowing in the ascent and the gold Press.

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Speaker 3: I made the point at the beginning of the show

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Speaker 3: that there's some things we can't control. We can't control

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Speaker 3: the interest rate differential between US and the US, we

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Speaker 3: can't control American inflation. What are the most important things

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Speaker 3: we can control? And I imagine in a word, we're

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Speaker 3: going to go back to politics very quickly here.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know what I mean, if you may be

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Speaker 4: looking at from a differently, it's a good worth the

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Speaker 4: bond market has done. You know, over the past year,

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Speaker 4: certainly over the past couple of years, we've certainly seen

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Speaker 4: significant strengths. You know, South African government bind our benchmark

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Speaker 4: bond had actually strengthened close to two hundred basis points

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Speaker 4: and that's a huge improvement in the yield. And again,

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Speaker 4: you know, as you said, that does come back to politics.

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Speaker 4: We certainly saw the posts the elections, in other words,

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Speaker 4: pre our national election, we actually saw very substantial weakness

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Speaker 4: in South Africa's government, bond market, and of course other

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Speaker 4: metrics as well, whether it was the RAND or you know,

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Speaker 4: other areas that financial markets players look at. So you know,

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Speaker 4: we have come through a difficult period politically. Meet countries

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Speaker 4: around the world has come through difficult political periods or

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Speaker 4: perhaps are still in them. But South Africa is really

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Speaker 4: shown to perform with the Government of National Unity where

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Speaker 4: that's an improved economic growth artlook and that's not just

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Speaker 4: Operation Brew and Lela even those two now, but obviously

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Speaker 4: other areas as well where we are already seeing significant progress.

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Speaker 4: South Africa is seeing its coalition partners really working quite

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Speaker 4: well together, and of course expectations that we're going to

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Speaker 4: see further fiscal consolidation. But let's not forget obviously that

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Speaker 4: revenue significant part coming from strong economic growth. So all

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Speaker 4: of these factors do lead into RAND strength as well

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Speaker 4: in thother areas where we can and do need to

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Speaker 4: improve further. So you know that that really was your question.

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Speaker 4: You know what can we do going forward? And of

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Speaker 4: course we know we've managed to end rolling blackouts in

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Speaker 4: South Africa, we've got off the gray list. We've obviously

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Speaker 4: know the inflation target which referred casually talked about earlier,

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Speaker 4: but also of course as well, you know, improvements that

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Speaker 4: trant need. The classis has been stabilized according to the

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Speaker 4: last results, and obviously now looking to bring the private

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Speaker 4: sector onto the line. All of these factors strengthen the

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Speaker 4: economy and improve investor sentiment and in turn are reflected

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Speaker 4: in our financial market indicators.

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Speaker 3: Annabelle, I mean, one of the things about our current

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Speaker 3: situation and sort of this week struck me as a

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Speaker 3: little out of the ordinary in the past, when there's

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Speaker 3: been a big geopolitical shock, and I think the United

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Speaker 3: States subducting the head of state of another country could

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Speaker 3: counter as that. What we've normally seen is that people

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Speaker 3: avoid risk, so they avoid emerging markets and they go

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Speaker 3: to the dollar, the safe haven currency. That's not happening now.

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Speaker 3: People are leaving the dollar and coming to us.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think, you know, really it's not really an

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Speaker 4: event which is expected to negatively impact financial markets itself,

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Speaker 4: you know, if you look at us through that lens,

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Speaker 4: and really what we actually have seen is rather fundamentals

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Speaker 4: driving the dollar weakness because of what's happening in the economy.

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Speaker 4: We've discussed all of us earlier, and as we said,

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Speaker 4: you know that the RAND has gained, but it only

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Speaker 4: gained above out two point five percent compared to twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty four. So if we look at the average from

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Speaker 4: the whole of twenty twenty five versus the average RAND

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Speaker 4: dollar rate from twenty twenty four is actually only two

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Speaker 4: point five percent up. So you know what we do

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Speaker 4: sometimes compare, We compare a point in time, We look

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Speaker 4: at them. You know, where the RAND is STAT sixteen

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Speaker 4: thirty five, which is much stronger than where it was

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Speaker 4: last year, very much stronger. And of course, you know,

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Speaker 4: we can see that there's been this rapid acceleration recently,

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Speaker 4: and you know that that difference really comes through that

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Speaker 4: there's been an improvement and expectations of your interest rate

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Speaker 4: cuts most recently for example. But more importantly, if we

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Speaker 4: look at financial market risk centerment, there's an expectations survey

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Speaker 4: show that there should be better performance coming out of

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Speaker 4: US equity. So, in other words, investor centers becomes significantly

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Speaker 4: more risk on the US economy is being anticipated to

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Speaker 4: perform better, not only because of US interest rate cuts,

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Speaker 4: but you know other factor as well. All all that

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Speaker 4: really does reduce market risk and in turn start to

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Speaker 4: provide support for riskier areas of investment, which of course

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Speaker 4: do include em currencies.

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Speaker 3: Annabelle, thank you very much. Indeed, annabel Bishop is the

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Speaker 3: chief economist at Investing nineteen minutes after six Good Money Show. Well,

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Speaker 3: on the show yesterday you would have heard me point

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Speaker 3: out there was a time when Venezuela was considered a

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Speaker 3: rich country, and considering how it does the world's largest

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Speaker 3: oil reserves, you would think it would still be rich.

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Speaker 3: So then how did it get to where it is now?

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Speaker 3: Javiepa Mongol is the chief economist at the Don Consultancy Group. Javiepa,

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Speaker 3: good evening, and I do appreciate your time. So central

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Speaker 3: to the story is the story of the Venezuelan Oil

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Speaker 3: Company PDVSA, sort of a transmittent charge of oil if

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Speaker 3: you like. Why is it so important to the story?

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Speaker 5: Well, good afternoon or evening to you.

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Speaker 6: Well, I think it is quite important in the States that.

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Speaker 5: D which is defined as a petorious Venezuela.

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Speaker 6: Was actually fromed in nineteen seventy six.

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Speaker 5: During that time that was when the dimension towards moving

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Speaker 5: to our nationalization of the whole industry in Venezuela was

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Speaker 5: actually initiatives through President Peres. So that created an involvement

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Speaker 5: in towards and mostly between the Venezuela as well as

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Speaker 5: with the American companies who are present during that time.

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Speaker 5: So most of the American companies that were pretting that time,

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Speaker 5: pocon Co Loco, Phylips Mobile.

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Speaker 7: Shabone was still there, and it's still there now, but

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Speaker 7: it's actually operating under the minorities.

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Speaker 5: Share ordy with THEDEST. So the history or for the

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Speaker 5: own national version of the oil industry in Venezuela actually

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Speaker 5: kicked in with the formation of DC in Venezuela in.

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Speaker 3: Nineteen You point out in your note this week that

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Speaker 3: one of the things that happened was that politicians were

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Speaker 3: using this oil company for factional politics or patronage. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's fascinating, but it would suggest then that politicians were

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Speaker 3: using control of the state asset oil reserves really for

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Speaker 3: their own purposes. Now, part of it was to increase

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Speaker 3: the living conditions of many Venezuelans, we must accept, we

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Speaker 3: must include that and mention that. But part of it

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Speaker 3: was also basically about control and money for them.

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Speaker 5: Well, it was more defined in that manner.

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Speaker 6: A partly the ost question actually came to what called

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Speaker 6: the west point when President Serbs Hugo Shabas took over

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Speaker 6: in the nineteen ninety eight.

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Speaker 5: So during the two thousand onwards, the whole improvement of

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Speaker 5: the old industrho actually highly disturberized and highly politicized and

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Speaker 5: they step owned the company which have mentioned add essay

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Speaker 5: became a destabrizing factor in the industry. Say, you know,

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Speaker 5: the political patternerer and motion in gear is more about

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Speaker 5: employment for political patronage. In terms of political bodies. You

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Speaker 5: know what you can even define as deployment. So most

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Speaker 5: of the people who are okay professionals from engineer, technicians

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Speaker 5: as well others specialisty individuals working in this institution actually

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Speaker 5: were even fired almost close to nineteen thousands were fired

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Speaker 5: in two permanent and two uh and then most of

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Speaker 5: them decide to leave the country and they are now

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Speaker 5: playing playing their tread in terms of working in the

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Speaker 5: countries that USA spend Canada, Argentina, even Colungia. So so

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Speaker 5: I think the essence about the funding of the ciscos

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Speaker 5: was actually defined in such way that no sixty percent

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Speaker 5: of the budgets from the government fiscals course actually coming

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Speaker 5: from the all of industries.

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Speaker 7: So when you're actually a CEO or for the owned company,

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Speaker 7: which is BDVCSA, you are.

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Speaker 6: In a way like a minute of finance in Venezuela.

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Speaker 5: So it stud that an environment where all the funding,

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Speaker 5: public spending, subsidy, social programs were all designed in ten

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Speaker 5: for manage or revenue coming through the PDVSA, and the

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Speaker 5: corps of the oil sector meant the corps of the

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Speaker 5: social contract with the people of Venezuela.

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Speaker 3: So I mean in a way, I mean it reminds

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Speaker 3: me maybe of some of the worst aspects of the

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Speaker 3: state capture era. The big differences, but there are some

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Speaker 3: similarities as well. How do you avoid a situation like Venezuela.

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Speaker 3: Their politicians were using the oil company and oil revenues

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Speaker 3: for very particular purposes, and I imagine part of it

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Speaker 3: would be to make sure that you had neutral people

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Speaker 3: in charge of state assets like oil.

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Speaker 7: That's correct stepan. In fact, there are two dimensions one

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Speaker 7: I look at in terms of how do you avoid that.

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Speaker 7: One is on the economic front in terms of police

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Speaker 7: management the allies of the political side. In terms of

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Speaker 7: how you created an environmental institutional building, so for instance,

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Speaker 7: UH on the economic side.

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Speaker 5: One can look it from the point of ther divistation

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Speaker 5: of the economy. You know, you can't be guy heavy

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Speaker 5: on the whole sector when you with other symptoms of

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Speaker 5: the column that I need to job it also lookaltation

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Speaker 5: of innovations for the growth in the economy, so that

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Speaker 5: some of the elements one you can look at in

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Speaker 5: terms of how you.

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Speaker 7: Can address from the economic side point of view.

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Speaker 5: But I think in terms of the area of.

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Speaker 7: Investment, it's more on political choices. You know, instution, decay,

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Speaker 7: missaligned or it became a case rather than a national asset,

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Speaker 7: which in the end peopled the whole entire standing sector

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Speaker 7: and to the extend, the entire eclomy. So I think

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Speaker 7: too much as you talked about the higher reserves, you're

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Speaker 7: talking about most close to three hundred and four billion

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Speaker 7: barrels of oil in terms of reserves for Venezuela, but

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Speaker 7: if you look at their production, it's only less than

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Speaker 7: one million uh a p barrow a day.

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Speaker 6: So that kills are not here.

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Speaker 7: They can't reach in terms of national ro but no

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Speaker 7: investment in the economy in terms of infecting the oil

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Speaker 7: because you can have reserves, but the resolved have to

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Speaker 7: be produced. So that depends in terms of the stable

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Speaker 7: property rights environment, transparence in terms of regression.

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Speaker 5: Perfectal management of institutions, but also for insystability, and I

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Speaker 5: think that is what was.

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Speaker 7: Lacking in terms of what I've been lating in Venezuela

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Speaker 7: with regard to how the oil industry hand have been

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Speaker 7: destabilized to the point where by no it used to

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Speaker 7: be producing almost cross to a mostly million barrels a day,

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Speaker 7: it's only producing now only one million barrows a day.

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Speaker 7: And I think the other disadvantage is that no from.

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Speaker 5: The periodic and forteen now almost.

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Speaker 7: Seven seven point seven million Venezuelas have left the country.

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Speaker 7: They are now living in other countries because of the

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Speaker 7: the economic decline and the economic decay intel of the country.

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Speaker 7: As you speak, you know seven I was watching something

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Speaker 7: that was being discussed on the BBC or one of

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Speaker 7: the channels here or where the are talking about the

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Speaker 7: dead levels that now is actually becoming.

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Speaker 5: In Venezuela, but also looking at the impression levels in Venezuela.

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Speaker 8: So the standard of.

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Speaker 7: Livings have gone down, the infrastructure espect in terms of

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Speaker 7: the care is also going down. So those are the

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Speaker 7: issue that no, the countries actually have been interesting because

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Speaker 7: of what transpirred nationalization but also a poor nationalization of

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Speaker 7: the economy with patronage, with we got employment Chavipa.

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Speaker 3: Thank you. Shavie Mango is the chief economists at the

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Speaker 3: Don Consultancy Group. A cautionary tail, if ever there was one.

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Speaker 3: The money show the market. Queno Maloco is from Equity

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Speaker 3: Research Sales at Absence CRB. Quena. Good evening, Thanks very

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Speaker 3: much indeed for coming in in the first working week.

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Speaker 3: I really appreciate Its good to see. I don't know

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Speaker 3: if you're celebrating the JC today. One hundred and eighteen thousand,

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Speaker 3: seven hundred and twenty three points is where they all share.

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Speaker 3: Ended still a lot of momentum from last year's really definitely.

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Speaker 2: I mean it's the als just continues to make new highs, right.

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Speaker 2: A lot of it is all the same things that

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Speaker 2: drove it in twenty twenty five. It's all the sort

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Speaker 2: of precious metal gold play. And if you remember twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five, the metal prices reacted very strongly to geopolitics

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Speaker 2: and trade tensions, and lo and behold we walk into

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty six is a US Benezuela situation, and you're

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Speaker 2: seeing the metal prices continue to hold, and yes, the

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Speaker 2: currency strength is maybe a bit of a downer in

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Speaker 2: terms of company results when they report, But in the meantime,

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Speaker 2: what you will definitely see is that the share prices

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Speaker 2: will continue to follow the metal prices. So that's what's

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Speaker 2: effectively driving the all share from here. Another theme we're seeing,

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Speaker 2: as we're talking about last year as well, is that

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Speaker 2: the laggards of twenty twenty five continue to struggle. If

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Speaker 2: you look today the retailers, the domestic stocks, they're sort

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Speaker 2: of languishing behind, maybe one percent up on a fairly

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Speaker 2: good day, and I think that for me is a

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Speaker 2: sign that until they can prove that corporate growth is achievable,

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Speaker 2: so sort of high single digit corporate growth and sustainable,

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Speaker 2: what you're going to see this year in terms of

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Speaker 2: return is probably similar to next in that your returns

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Speaker 2: are sort of concentrated in your PGM and gold place.

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Speaker 3: For sure, it's fascinating to see if they'll ever be

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Speaker 3: able to catch up. I mean, I realized that can't

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Speaker 3: control gold prices, but to see whether the rest of

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Speaker 3: the index sort of catches up in some ways, because

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Speaker 3: many people tell me South African stocks are undervalued.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that's a fair thing to say, right, they

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Speaker 2: appear very cheap. The multiples are probably single digits of

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Speaker 2: some of the lowest we've seen on a multi year basis,

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Speaker 2: And what you're contending with is sort of triple digit

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Speaker 2: returns that you've seen on the other side. I think

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Speaker 2: what's important then we'll maybe start to get a sense

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Speaker 2: of this mid January when the retailers come out and

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Speaker 2: tell us what Christmas spending was, is that they need

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Speaker 2: to be able to show that their top line is

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Speaker 2: improving in the face of a much better consumer. We

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Speaker 2: had one hundred basis points of cuts last year. We

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Speaker 2: had very low inflation. I'm talking three and a half

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Speaker 2: percent inflation last year. That should have translated into sales,

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Speaker 2: and that just did not happen. The caveat, though, is

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Speaker 2: that this period, or at least these two months of trading,

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Speaker 2: are quite significant for the retailer's top line. So if

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Speaker 2: they come in with let's call it high single digits,

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Speaker 2: you might be able to see those shares start to perform.

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Speaker 2: And because positioning is so light, and to your comment

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Speaker 2: that investors believe they're quite cheap. You might actually see

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Speaker 2: a rotation where people take profits off these shares that

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Speaker 2: have run so hard to maybe seize an opportunity in

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Speaker 2: the domestic side.

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Speaker 3: And about bushp quite bullish about the rand. Several other

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Speaker 3: people are particularly relative to the dollar. Do you share

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Speaker 3: that optimism?

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Speaker 8: Yes, we do.

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Speaker 2: I mean, as a house we had sixteen fifty by medio,

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Speaker 2: and yeah we sit at sixteen twenty five.

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Speaker 3: Like people who say, go mighty at five thousand city.

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Speaker 7: There you go.

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Speaker 2: But I think there's this sort of positive feedback loop,

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Speaker 2: right the rand goes down, petrol prices goes down, inflation

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Speaker 2: goes down, so it sort of feeds into itself. And

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Speaker 2: I think one of the things we have to look

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Speaker 2: at is, you know, maybe not to call it too

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Speaker 2: quickly and be like this is torough rand. We could

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Speaker 2: see what's driving the dollar continue to drive it lower,

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Speaker 2: and at the margin, South Africa is looking a lot better,

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Speaker 2: even just from growth perspective. I know we say this

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Speaker 2: every year, we walk in and we say this is

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Speaker 2: the year of two percent growth. But ultimately what you're

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Speaker 2: seeing is that growth has sort of trufed in that people.

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Speaker 2: There's not many endlests that expect some one percent growth

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Speaker 2: and like I said, we're going to start to see

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Speaker 2: the impact of one hundred basis points cuts last year

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Speaker 2: on the consumer. So potentially there is also a South

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Speaker 2: Africa specific story that starts to play into the RAND

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 3: Indeed, in the construction sector, numbers sort of bolster that

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Speaker 3: there are other numbers that don't. As always with the economics, Quinna,

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Speaker 3: thanks so much. Really good to see quenem locals with

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Speaker 3: equity research sales at absas CIB bringing the time on

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Speaker 3: The Money Show to six point thirty.

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Speaker 1: The Money Show on seven o two Monday till Friday

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Speaker 1: six to a pm.

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Speaker 3: There was a big briefing today by the National Student

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Speaker 3: Financial Aids Scheme NISFITS, and they were talking about how

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Speaker 3: ready they are for what we all know every year

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Speaker 3: is the annual big rush. Students will get their metric

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Speaker 3: exam results, then they'll obviously apply or confirm their applications.

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Speaker 3: Institutions will pick and choose, and then there'll be issues

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Speaker 3: around funding. It does look and I do get the

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Speaker 3: sense just from sort of watching it from advantage point

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Speaker 3: that NISPUS looks a little better than it was. One

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Speaker 3: analyst today on TV suggesting that in fact, things are

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Speaker 3: a lot more stable than they've been in the past

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Speaker 3: and it's kind of out of crisis mode, which is

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Speaker 3: very good news to hear. It did also, though, make

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Speaker 3: an important point, which is we spend a lot of

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Speaker 3: money on university students. And let me be clear about this.

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Speaker 3: I think as a society we all aspire. I think

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Speaker 3: all of us do I know I do. We want

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Speaker 3: our children to go to university. I was lucky enough

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Speaker 3: to go to university. I can't imagine how strong that

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Speaker 3: desire is, that aspiration. If no one in your family's

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Speaker 3: ever gone to university, it must be very, very intense.

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Speaker 3: You want to make that happening or do anything to

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Speaker 3: make it happen. But there are other questions around whether

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Speaker 3: we could spend money on higher education in a more

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Speaker 3: effective way, and in particular the fact that we don't

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Speaker 3: have enough artisans, we don't have enough plumbers electricians. I

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Speaker 3: know in some countries, if you go to Australia or

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Speaker 3: the UK or parts of Europe and you say to

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Speaker 3: someone who in your circle of friends is the richest

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Speaker 3: person you know, and they'll often say, well, actually the plumber.

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Speaker 3: Because this is a person who's in high demand. They

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Speaker 3: can sort of charge what they like this, you know,

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Speaker 3: call out fees and things, and on weekends they can

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Speaker 3: literally charge what they like if you've got a crisis,

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Speaker 3: and so, you know, you do wonder sometimes if maybe

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Speaker 3: we're kind of barking up the wrong tree a little

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Speaker 3: bit there, and there are other things we need to do.

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Speaker 3: I know, I've spoken to people in the business before

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Speaker 3: and they tell me that young people don't want to

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Speaker 3: be plumbers. And I can understand why I didn't want

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Speaker 3: to get my hands dirty, and I don't want to

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Speaker 3: get my hands dirty either. It's why I've owned them.

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Speaker 3: But I do wonder sometimes if maybe we need a

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Speaker 3: bigger sort of national conversation around the best way to

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Speaker 3: find young people into work. Be very interested in your

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Speaker 3: view O seven two seven or two one seven two?

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Speaker 3: What what field would you suggest your children or a

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Speaker 3: young person you know go into. And let's not just

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Speaker 3: go the university sort of elite route. Where would you

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Speaker 3: suggest a young person go now? Oh seven two seven

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Speaker 3: O two one seven O two seven two.

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Speaker 2: Stephen is on x at at Stephen.

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Speaker 3: Well Confirmation now that the medical Aid Scheme Discovery says

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Speaker 3: it's overpaid some people for their pharmacy claims pretty much

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Speaker 3: through the whole of last year. Now it wants to

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Speaker 3: get the money back, and as a result, some people

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Speaker 3: have been told they owe tens of thousands of rant

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Speaker 3: The schemes now getting the money back by refusing to

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Speaker 3: refund payments for services they're getting this year. One organization, Medicheck,

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Speaker 3: is demanding proof from Discovery that there was member enrichment

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Speaker 3: by this mistake. Now, this morning, the CEO of Discovery Health,

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Speaker 3: Ron Wheeland, spoke to Cape Talks John Maatham. It is

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Speaker 3: available for you as a podcast, but this is just

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Speaker 3: a small part of that conversation I thought was quite important.

437
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 9: There is an obligation for the scheme to recover money,

438
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 9: is that you were erroneously You're paid regulatory obligation, rules obligation,

439
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 9: So you know we're stinking to you know, we need

440
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 9: to keep to that your obligation.

441
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 10: And you haven't told me how much money is involved,

442
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 10: and you still haven't answered my central point about the

443
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 10: administrator paying for the error that it made putting the

444
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 10: money back into the Discovery Health scheme, why that is

445
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 10: not an option that you're prepared to consider or take.

446
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 9: So I was getting I was getting to that, John. So,

447
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,880
Speaker 9: in relation to our role as an administrator, you'll repride

448
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 9: ourselves on the rigor and the robustness of our systems

449
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:49,360
Speaker 9: and processes. We invest extensively in every effort and every

450
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 9: system to prevent your such areas. This particular error falls

451
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 9: well within the margin of our contracted your obligations to

452
00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 9: the medical scheme, you know, so you can accept John

453
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 9: that it is an extremely big organization with extremely complex systems. Yeah,

454
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:12,719
Speaker 9: in general, the accuracy of our claim system is ninety

455
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 9: nine point nine percent.

456
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 3: Ron Whillan speaking to Cape Talks John Maatham earlier this morning. Well,

457
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 3: Mark Hymen runs a company called Medicheck. It helps people

458
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 3: with medical aid claims, and in this particular case, he's

459
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 3: actually representing and speaking to some of the members of

460
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,880
Speaker 3: Discovery Health who have been told they have to pay

461
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:38,160
Speaker 3: money back. Mark, good evening. Does Ronald Wheland have a point?

462
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 3: Is Discovery obligated to get this money back?

463
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 8: Stephen, thank you very much for having me on your show,

464
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 8: and good eving to your listeners. Is Discovery administrator in

465
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 8: targets to do the climback or is the scheme entitled

466
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 8: to the Climbac in the opinion of Medicheck, and in

467
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 8: terms of currentlygislation, Discovery has in our opinion as Mediiceck

468
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 8: breached the law and they've reached the law in number

469
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 8: of instances. Firstly, a member of a medical scheme has

470
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 8: a contractual obligation to the medical scheme.

471
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 6: They do not have a contractual.

472
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 8: Obligation to the administrator of the scheme. And in this

473
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 8: particular case, Discovery Administrators Discovery Health Pty Limited, which is

474
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 8: the administrator, has made fatal errors. Now, in terms of legislation,

475
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 8: the scheme is entitled. It is entitled in terms of

476
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 8: if I'm not mistaken, it's Regulations seventeen of the Medical

477
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 8: Schemes Act to claw back if it is done within

478
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 8: city days of a claim being paid. Now we're looking

479
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 8: at claims that are dating back from January twenty twenty

480
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 8: five to December twenty twenty five. Now, the scheme had

481
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:10,120
Speaker 8: plentyeth time to pick this era up number one, number two.

482
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 8: To come to a member on the eighteenth of December

483
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 8: when they claim that they've picked up this particular era

484
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 8: is totally totally outside of every legal obligation that they're

485
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 8: entitled to do. In terms of recovery, so in.

486
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 3: A way they timed out. They basically waited too long

487
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 3: to claim the money back.

488
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,119
Speaker 8: From our opinion, yes, in addition to which, the board

489
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 8: of Trustees, who remains responsible for governances of a medical

490
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 8: aid care because it's a non profit, they have reached

491
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,439
Speaker 8: Section fifty seven of the Medical Schemes Act because they

492
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 8: have not ensured that the fiducial duties that trustees are

493
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 8: required to have have been met, and they have not

494
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 8: reviewed those contracts agreements that sit between themselves and the

495
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 8: and the administrator, and therefore the administrator with whom Discovery

496
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 8: has a direct contract, despite the fact that they have

497
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 8: Chinese Wolves between the health scheme and the administrator, those

498
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 8: have been breached, and one cannot get away from the

499
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 8: fact that the administrator is liable for having made this error,

500
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 8: not the member.

501
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 3: Okay, if I, as Stephen, get paid too much by you,

502
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 3: as Mark, you would have a legitimate expectation that I

503
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 3: would give the money back. And in fact, in I

504
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 3: think the Nisphus case which involved a student who was

505
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 3: a given way too much money by Nisphus, they did

506
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:41,399
Speaker 3: actually demand the money back, and in fact, she I

507
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 3: think in the end jail. Yes, isn't that Why would

508
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 3: this be different? Why would it not be the case

509
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 3: that I would have to pay you the money back?

510
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,680
Speaker 3: And yes, it might prescribe, but that's three years. It

511
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:57,880
Speaker 3: hasn't prescribed in that sense in this case.

512
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 8: Stephens has that to do with prescription. In this case,

513
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 8: there is a very clear regulation in terms of the

514
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 8: Medical Schemes Act that says a medical scheme has thirty

515
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 8: days within which to dispute a claim. The member then

516
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 8: has sixty days within which to respond to the repudiation

517
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 8: of the claim, okay, and then there can be the clawback.

518
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:31,199
Speaker 8: We are talking now beyond that stuty and sixty day

519
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 8: notice periit because this is going back, according to Discovery,

520
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 8: going back to as far as January twenty twenty five.

521
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 8: So they have therefore breached not only the rules of

522
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,120
Speaker 8: the Medical Schemes Act, but they have breached their own

523
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 8: internal rules of discovery health.

524
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 3: I mean, on that reading then, and I'm sure there'll

525
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 3: be a lawyer someone who's going to make money out

526
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 3: of this mark, But on that reading, then they're just

527
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 3: trying it on. They're just trying to They're just trying

528
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 3: They're just hoping people won't mind in our.

529
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 8: Opinion, yes, but this has caused an absolute havoc in

530
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:09,239
Speaker 8: the marketplace. You know we're seeing we've got currently we're

531
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 8: sitting on eight hundred and forty two complaints that we

532
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,679
Speaker 8: have lodged with Discovery. We've only lodged what we had

533
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 8: at yesterday afternoon, which is about one hundred and eighty

534
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 8: seven that has now grown to eight hundred and forty two.

535
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 8: But you also need to remember that despite the fact

536
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 8: that Discovery make the statement that has affected zero point

537
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 8: six percent of their membership base, that is totally totally

538
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 8: incorrect because the claims paid by Discovery for the above

539
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 8: threshold benefits that they maintain were overpaid only apply to

540
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 8: plans in the Executive level of Discovery, which is the

541
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 8: most expensive plan available in the Classic Comprehensive range of products,

542
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 8: and in the in the Classic Priority range of products. Now,

543
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 8: the point six percent is across the entire base of

544
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 8: Discovery of one point three five one seven million principal members. However,

545
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 8: when you do the calculation on the people in executive

546
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 8: plans and Classic Classic plans, that number equates to ten

547
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 8: point nine percent of those members have been affected. And

548
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 8: so I take your point with regard to the clawback

549
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 8: and overpayment. This here is totally unknown to the user,

550
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 8: to the member when they went into a pharmacy to

551
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 8: obtain medication, and it's only on the medication platform that

552
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 8: this has occurred. When they went in and they didn't

553
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 8: have to pay anything for their medication. I'm sure you

554
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 8: as an individual would say, great, I don't have to

555
00:29:56,160 --> 00:30:00,040
Speaker 8: pay anything this month, okay. And this has gone on

556
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 8: for a period of twelve months. Now, if you've had

557
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 8: this extended period of time and you are not looking

558
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 8: at your financials effectively, and all of a sudden you're

559
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 8: seeing this tremendous growth in your claims ratio on medicines

560
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 8: going up, Surely the board of Trustee, surely the administrator

561
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 8: should have woken up to this okay and said, guys,

562
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 8: we think we've got a problem and investigated when it's occurred.

563
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 3: Mark Haymon, thank you very much, indeed do appreciate it.

564
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 3: See you of medi Czech A story I suspect that

565
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 3: is going to run for quite some time. I'm not

566
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 3: sure how it's going to be resolved. But if Mark

567
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 3: Hymon is correct on the law, and I have no

568
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 3: reason to doubt him that a medical scheme is only

569
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:48,760
Speaker 3: thirty days to dispute the payout. Well, that would seem

570
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 3: on the face of it, just to put Discovery in

571
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 3: a very weak position. Eight minutes to seven o'clock The.

572
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 11: Money Show with Stephen Quete is brought to you by

573
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 11: absce cib a Pan African bank invested in your story

574
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 11: and the potential it can unlock because your story matters.

575
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 11: Perhaps as the rest fsp.

576
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 3: Seven minutes now to seven the time with your thoughts

577
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 3: on the Discovery issue. Seven to seven oh two one

578
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 3: seven oh two are important Business Today, in Business Today,

579
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 3: in Business Day Today, Stephen that the retail property development

580
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 3: company McCormack, they're spending and they're involved in one hundred

581
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 3: million dollar development and building what's called the Mall of Zimbabwe.

582
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 3: It will be surprise, surprise in Zimbabwe. The idea I

583
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 3: suppose is to take formal shopping malls beyond South Africa

584
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 3: and into zimbabwean more further into the region. There are,

585
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 3: of course other malls they're already, but to basically sort

586
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 3: of deepen the reach of shopping malls. Jason McCormack is

587
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 3: the CEO of McCormack Property Jason, good evening. I have

588
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 3: to say what struck me when I first saw this

589
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 3: was that I think many of us have a sense

590
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 3: that Zimbabwe's economy is not growing, there's not a lot

591
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 3: of money for people to spend. And yeah, you invest

592
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 3: in quite a large amount of money, and I'm all there, and.

593
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 6: Good evening if youeven, and good evening to your listeners here.

594
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 6: Of course, certainly as a developer of the township, a

595
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 6: special if developer of township retail within South Africa for

596
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 6: the last forty five years, we've always kind of gone

597
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 6: where angels feared to tread, So you know, I'd say

598
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 6: Zimbabwe is no more fearful than any of the other

599
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 6: areas that we've been developing since the nineteen eighties. And

600
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 6: I think, yeah, it's the lived experience in Zimbabwe is

601
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 6: very different to what the media reports back here in

602
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 6: South Africa, and that's one of the really exciting things

603
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 6: we've been looking to get invested. We invested in the

604
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 6: land in in Zimbabwe about twelve twelve years ago, waiting

605
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 6: for the time to be right for this development, and

606
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 6: there's no doubt in any of our minds that the

607
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 6: time is now right. The economic activity that is happening

608
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 6: in Zimbabwe currently is certainly not reflected in my belief.

609
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 12: In the GDP figures.

610
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 6: So that we see the formal GDP figures that we

611
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 6: see in much the same way that we've been saying

612
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 6: for years that the formal economy economic figures that come

613
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 6: out of the townships and the employment stats and everything else.

614
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 6: It's been much of a bone of contention since capitech

615
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 6: ik Feree made the comments, but I think it's very

616
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 6: much the same way. You know, they say that between

617
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 6: thirty five and thirty three billion US dollars GDP in

618
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 6: twenty twenty five. I just think there's so much that's

619
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 6: not been counted. There's so much that's going out the

620
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 6: side door, there's so much barter trade, there's so much

621
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 6: cash flowing around that's not getting counted that I don't

622
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 6: think that those that read from AFAR the economic reports

623
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,959
Speaker 6: and don't see the little experience on the ground there

624
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 6: will definitely thinks it's a crazy, crazy idea. But then again,

625
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 6: so it was going into the townships twenty thirty years.

626
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 3: Ago and look where we are now. I mean, so,

627
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 3: I mean, I understand what you say and I accept

628
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 3: what you say I do when diclidly you talk about

629
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 3: the informal economy barter for example, you couldn't really do

630
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 3: barter trade in the shopping mall.

631
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 6: No, No, not at all, not at all. And my

632
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 6: point being there's actually people are surviving, people are making

633
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 6: money in their form of in the informal economy, a

634
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 6: lot more than I think is being very reflected. I've

635
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 6: seen the kind of say figure of seven billion is

636
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 6: what they put the informal economy in zimbob We at

637
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 6: that kind of a peck. But we certainly we're not.

638
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 6: We're that's not what we're targeting. Obviously from outside the

639
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 6: mall of zimbob We is very much like them all

640
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 6: of Africa, Like Santon City on the Vienna Waterfront, it

641
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 6: is going to operate at the top end.

642
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:28,720
Speaker 3: Of the pyramid.

643
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 6: So yes, whilst we've got we are planning. You know,

644
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 6: we like to go through all the LSM from the

645
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 6: bottom to the top in all our developments. But certainly

646
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 6: from our side, we've got interest from all all the

647
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 6: supermarket nationals. We're planning for supermarkets, which will make up

648
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 6: about fifteen thousand squares of the first phases planned forty

649
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 6: five thousand squares plus another ten thousand square meters which

650
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 6: we signed with Panda, which is a kind of like

651
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 6: a general merchandiser from China. So that's twenty five thousand

652
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 6: squares just in the anchors, and then we've got over

653
00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 6: the twenty thousand squares additional from local retailers in Zimbabwe,

654
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 6: which we're currently going through and working out who's the best.

655
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 8: Of that bunch.

656
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 6: Currently we're not planning on any South African retailers going

657
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 6: up there, and you know we've seen Peter Albret shop

658
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,399
Speaker 6: rights and everyone else. TA can have some trouble they're

659
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 6: South in Africa, but certainly the local demand for Phase

660
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,359
Speaker 6: one is more than sufficient for us to get going

661
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 6: with the first phase of all of Zimbabwe. And you know,

662
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:28,800
Speaker 6: hopefully with the performance of those retailers and the reporting

663
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 6: of of the actual figures that the GAHA they trade,

664
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 6: we'll see in the next couple of years that the

665
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 6: South African retailers would be interested in in Phase two,

666
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 6: because you know a lot of them are trucking their

667
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 6: goods through to Zambia, but I'm not you know, they've

668
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 6: got the logistics chains, the lines going up there, but

669
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 6: they aren't. They aren't stopping in Zim, so just from

670
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 6: a logistic standpoint, it makes it makes sense for them.

671
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:50,799
Speaker 6: But certainly from our side, we're not hanging our hats

672
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 6: on that because there is currently sufficient Zimbabwean demand.

673
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 3: And Jason building in Zimbabwe. When I take this from

674
00:35:58,120 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 3: the point of view of how difficult it has being

675
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:03,280
Speaker 3: to construct things in South Africa recently with a construction mafia,

676
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 3: I mean, could it actually be maybe easier in Zimbabwe

677
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 3: than it is in some parts of South Africa Right now,

678
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:09,760
Speaker 3: It's gonna.

679
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 6: Be much easier, you know, the political power everything to

680
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 6: get to get these things going. And I think, you know,

681
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 6: some of our best artisans in South Africa, unfortunate Pio Zimbabweans,

682
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 6: you guys on incredible tradesmen, incredible tiler's incredible, you know,

683
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 6: very good with their hands, so brick playing and everything

684
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 6: and everything like it was like that that they do

685
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 6: come in in droves up there. There's been a huge

686
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 6: amount of construction going on currently. The with the Chinese

687
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 6: steel mill that's up there, that's got its own its

688
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:38,800
Speaker 6: own power, it's got the cold's got everything. You know,

689
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 6: we're looking at as much cheaper steel prices up there.

690
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:46,720
Speaker 6: So yeah, we're quite we're quite confident that all whilst

691
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 6: cement up there is more expensive than we're getting in

692
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 6: South Africa, the steel price up there is going to

693
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 6: more than compensate for that. And I think that you

694
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 6: know it is. You know, we are going to take

695
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 6: extra time to no doubt we're not to have the

696
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 6: kind of scale economies that we've gotten and the deaths

697
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 6: of construction industry that we do have in South Africa,

698
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 6: but we'll give ourselves a bit extra time to do it.

699
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 6: And as I say, if you've been able to build

700
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 6: shopping centers in places like Lysiki Siki, well I don't

701
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:14,400
Speaker 6: think Herrari is going to be a problem.

702
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 3: Jason McCormack, thank you very much. Indeed, CEO of McCormack Property.

703
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 3: What an interesting response to the question. Is harder to

704
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 3: build here or in South Africa? Much easier in Zimbabwe?

705
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:25,320
Speaker 3: He says, Well, doesn't that get to the heart of

706
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 3: some of our problems. We will pick that up actually,

707
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 3: and we'll speak to the people behind the Civil Construction

708
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 3: Index in just a moment. They've been looking at the

709
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 3: situation regarding how the construction sector is feeling, and we'll

710
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 3: speak to the deputy Director of the Bureau for Economic

711
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 3: Research about those numbers. I think that is going to

712
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,319
Speaker 3: be very very important you with the Money show. Good

713
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:46,360
Speaker 3: evening at seven o'clock.

714
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:48,240
Speaker 13: Well, The Laney Show.

715
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 1: With Stephen krutis live on ninety two point seven and

716
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 1: one six FM, streaming on the Prime Media Plus NAP.

717
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 2: And DStv channel eight five six.

718
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 3: Well News Today from the F and B. We are

719
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 3: Civil Confidence Index that there's been a big jump in

720
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 3: confidence in the civil construction industry and in fact, the

721
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 3: sector is more profitable than it's been since around two

722
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 3: thousand and seven. Craig Lembau is the Deputy director at

723
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 3: the Bureau of Economic Research. Craig, good evening. I do

724
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 3: appreciate the time, Thank you. It looks like people are

725
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 3: feeling actually a lot more confident. There's been a big

726
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:23,880
Speaker 3: jump in confidence in this sector.

727
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,240
Speaker 12: Yeah. Good, good evening, Stephen, good evening to your listeners.

728
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 6: Yes, definitely, that's what our.

729
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 12: Services are show for the fourth quarter of last year.

730
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 12: And that index number now it's at fifty two, which

731
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 12: means that majority of respondents are actually satisfied with prevailing

732
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 12: business conditions and we haven't been in such a position

733
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:44,359
Speaker 12: in some time.

734
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,240
Speaker 3: What's really driven that quite sudden change.

735
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 12: Interestingly, Stephen, we also what our survey ask a number

736
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:55,840
Speaker 12: of underlying questions in this quarter, the sentiment moves murtters

737
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 12: the moves and activity and profitability quite closely. So we

738
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:04,320
Speaker 12: are seeing that that civil contractors indicate that activity is

739
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,880
Speaker 12: better than it's been in quite some time, and that

740
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 12: that activity is now leading to a better profit margins.

741
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 12: And as you know, the margins have been pepper thin

742
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 12: and so are relative to other sectors, but they are

743
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 12: there is an improvement, and I think that in and

744
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 12: of itself has been quite a boon for Sentimental's quarter

745
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 12: or in the fourth quarter.

746
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 3: So basically there's more demand for building and what the

747
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 3: construction industry.

748
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 12: Does so taken degree simples, which is actually a bit

749
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,360
Speaker 12: more of an optimistic story than it being the building

750
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 12: sector in particular. So it's infrastructure, and that's quite quite

751
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 12: quite key because that is what we've been talking about

752
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:44,320
Speaker 12: for some time around how can government unlock growth in

753
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 12: the economy, and that is through reforms and through reforms

754
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 12: that reflect in into such investment. And we're seeing some

755
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 12: of that, not all of it. We're seeing some of

756
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,959
Speaker 12: that peaking in the fourth quarter.

757
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:59,439
Speaker 3: I mean, we've been heart We've heard so many promises, Craig.

758
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 3: I mean you you've probably heard them as I have,

759
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 3: that this year there'll be a lot more construction for

760
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,080
Speaker 3: the first time in a while, that your survey is

761
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:09,280
Speaker 3: providing some evidence that something is actually shifting.

762
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 12: Yeah. Yeah, and there's some nuance of the results. Of course,

763
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 12: it's not across the board that we're seeing this improvement,

764
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 12: but we are quite optimistic around the infrastructure investment in

765
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 12: the mining sector, an infrastructure investment around renewable energy in particular.

766
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 12: It's been something that we've been waiting for. If you

767
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 12: look at the renewable energy registrations from the private sector,

768
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 12: those that have been growing, and we've not really seen

769
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:38,240
Speaker 12: the activity related to that. I think we are starting

770
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 12: to see some of those projects breakground.

771
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 3: It's interesting that because you would think that there would

772
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 3: come a point where all of the solar that's going

773
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 3: to be built has been built. Clearly there's I must

774
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 3: say the same for wind power. Of course, clearly it hasn't.

775
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 3: We may actually only be at the cusp at the

776
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 3: very beginning of that.

777
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 12: Yeah, I think what we've seen in the past was

778
00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 12: really survivalist investment in renewable energy firms that are just

779
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 12: trying to divorce themselves from load shedding. We are now

780
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 12: in that second phase from what we could tell, where

781
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:10,440
Speaker 12: actually it makes personal sense from a cost perspective and

782
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 12: from a competitive export if you are at a perspective,

783
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 12: if you want to export to Europe, to really invest

784
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 12: in these technologies. So we're in that second leg, and

785
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 12: as you're right, it's it's the cusp of the second

786
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:24,800
Speaker 12: leg where it makes financial sense to move towards renewable

787
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 12: and no longer just a case of trying to keep

788
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 12: operations and doors open.

789
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 3: Are the other sectors that you can see there's still

790
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:36,800
Speaker 3: major problems where actually there's not much confidence creeping it

791
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:38,359
Speaker 3: at all. There's just not enough to mind.

792
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:43,840
Speaker 12: So we've we've we've seen that the manufacturing sector, you

793
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 12: know you resolved to be published some time ago, their

794
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 12: confidence is still is still hiding somewhat compared to the

795
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 12: rest of the rest of the economy. We're all seeing

796
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 12: with interested cuts that the retail sector is doing well,

797
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 12: vehicle dealers are doing well, the building sector like Silvil

798
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:02,800
Speaker 12: is starting to see the revival in investment. But the

799
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 12: manufacturing sector has really been a laggot in terms of

800
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 12: the sentiments. Predominantly. We have seen some of the underlying

801
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:16,240
Speaker 12: production indicators look somewhat better, but it's such a volatile sector,

802
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 12: and I think because of the diversity, you would have

803
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 12: one sector doing well in a particular quarter and then

804
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 12: another doing poorly, and then a lot of really manifesting

805
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:28,800
Speaker 12: or reflecting in the overall sentiment numbers. So there is

806
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 12: one sector that I think we've identified as a lagot

807
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 12: in terms of this improvement in business conference, it is

808
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 12: the manufacturing sector.

809
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 3: I do have to ask about the construction mathia, and

810
00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 3: let me just explain where I'm going. Despite whatever demand

811
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 3: there was from government in the past, building things was

812
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 3: very tough, and part of that was because of let's

813
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 3: just put it under the broad category of criminal activity.

814
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 3: In the last nine months or so, it seems to me,

815
00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:59,919
Speaker 3: from the very safe vantage point of a radio's duty,

816
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,880
Speaker 3: uh that actually government seems to be pushing back on this,

817
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 3: that there's a lot more organization and dealing with the

818
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 3: construction mafia, that there's certainly a lot more will in

819
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:13,720
Speaker 3: dealing with it. They've been summits and things. But actually

820
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 3: I get a sense that now something really is being done.

821
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 3: Does that come through? I mean, if you don't get

822
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:21,320
Speaker 3: on top of the construction mafia, no one's going to

823
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 3: have the confidence to build anything.

824
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 12: Yeah, I think, I think the the the broader current

825
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 12: interruption elements are still plaguing the economy and plaguing the

826
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 12: construction sector. You're corrected, has been much more greater focus

827
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 12: on the state in terms of trying to address this

828
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 12: in time to speak to communities and work with communities.

829
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 12: But as a as as A as A as A

830
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 12: as a sort of inhibiting fact, at the sentiment I

831
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:52,320
Speaker 12: think it is it is still quite quite pervasive in construction,

832
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 12: but also even in in in townships.

833
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 6: Small businesses, not just civil construction.

834
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:03,399
Speaker 12: Related, but small businesses are under the sort of weight

835
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 12: of criminal activities in those communities.

836
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:10,440
Speaker 3: I can I can just imagine within all of this,

837
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 3: So if this keeps going like this, Craig, I mean,

838
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 3: you know, we all know how important infrastructure is. We

839
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 3: all know how a lack of investment in our infrastructure

840
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:20,280
Speaker 3: has been a major problem. I mean we can literally

841
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 3: walk around and see that if we continue like this,

842
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 3: you would like to think that in a couple of years,

843
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:28,800
Speaker 3: we'll start to see the economy growing as a result

844
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 3: not just of this investment, but of infrastructure actually working

845
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 3: and having an economic impact.

846
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 8: Yeah.

847
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 12: Yeah, I think the the sort of neoclassical view of

848
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 12: infrastructure creating the capacity for any economy going things through.

849
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 12: I mean, in the South African case, it's because we

850
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 12: haven't invested in infrastructure that are grateful to look as

851
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:52,280
Speaker 12: poor as they what they do. And if we continue

852
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:56,840
Speaker 12: on this sort of investment drive unlock energy, unlock transport,

853
00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:00,080
Speaker 12: and lock road infrastructure investment, then it can be we

854
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:04,400
Speaker 12: sit within noticeably high growth rate in coming years. But

855
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 12: it is around the continuation of this momentum, and it

856
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 12: is around I mean, we've seen this in renewables, we've

857
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 12: seen this in mining, very private sector driven, but there

858
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:16,839
Speaker 12: are still key reforms that are lacking that we need

859
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 12: to see greater movement on if we're going to see

860
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:23,360
Speaker 12: a sort of holistic lift in cross prospects.

861
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:28,359
Speaker 3: And does building infrastructure lead to more building of infrastructure.

862
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 3: You see a big project, you see government putting money

863
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 3: into a place, You see things actually happening in one area.

864
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:38,839
Speaker 3: It gives people confidence to invest themselves in that area.

865
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,280
Speaker 3: If you can see that a big bridge is coming,

866
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 3: or how train is coming to a suburb near you're

867
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:44,440
Speaker 3: going to put money there.

868
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:49,239
Speaker 12: Yeah, Yeah, most definitely there's enough evidence of the sort

869
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 12: of crowding in effect of infrastructure investment. In particular, if

870
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 12: you boil the road, then sooner or later and the

871
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 12: hotel pops up, the office block pops up, all of

872
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:03,759
Speaker 12: the around the sort of access that the road is

873
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 12: such is facilitated. So most definitely often we see with

874
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 12: these infrastructure projects that other office spaces also sort of

875
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 12: other building spaces also also directed.

876
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 3: Greg, thanks very much indeed for the time, ready to

877
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:22,400
Speaker 3: appreciate it. Craig Craig Lembo is the Deputy director at

878
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:24,160
Speaker 3: the Bureau for Economic Research.

879
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 1: Good Money Show with.

880
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 3: Eighteen minutes after seven. Well, if you take it, if

881
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 3: you take if you sort of look at the picture

882
00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:38,320
Speaker 3: of where we are as a whole. We've sort of

883
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,920
Speaker 3: gone through a couple of weeks with a fair amount

884
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 3: of good news and not very much bad news apart

885
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:48,040
Speaker 3: from and it is of course a big example Trump's

886
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 3: actions in Venezuela. But if you look at South Africa

887
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 3: at the moment, things do start to be looking positive

888
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:58,600
Speaker 3: and the civil there's civil construction figures. Confidence figures are

889
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 3: just the sort of latest indication of that. But money

890
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 3: coming in through gold through a stronger rand relative to

891
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 3: the dollar, to the fact that people need to put

892
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:09,719
Speaker 3: money somewhere in the are lots of places where they

893
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:12,400
Speaker 3: really don't want to put it at the moment, and

894
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 3: just the continuation of us getting our act together. And

895
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 3: Annabel Bishop was making the point earlier about how important

896
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 3: it is that we sort of keep going in this direction.

897
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:23,880
Speaker 3: And if you look at the politics of our situation,

898
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 3: it would seem to me that the President saw romopause

899
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,560
Speaker 3: is probably more in charge of the A and C

900
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 3: than he's been for some time. I would imagine that

901
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 3: any political party that wants to leave the National Coalition

902
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 3: now might feel a little silly if the National Coalition

903
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 3: is seen to make progress, they might feel that actually

904
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 3: they are not really sort of doing the correct thing

905
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:52,360
Speaker 3: and making a bad political decision. So then that of

906
00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:55,800
Speaker 3: course leads us down a pathway. Despite the factor we

907
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:58,480
Speaker 3: have local elections later in the year, things are looking

908
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 3: pretty good for twenty twenty six. The big issue, and

909
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 3: it's going to be nothing new to you, is still

910
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 3: that we can have political shocks, and no one knows

911
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 3: who the next leader of the ANC and then presumably

912
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:14,240
Speaker 3: or probably will be the next president of the country

913
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 3: will actually be. And that still leads to various questions

914
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 3: that I'm sure we'll linger. So things are looking good,

915
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 3: but where it all goes in the longer term, I

916
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 3: think is going to be one of the bigger questions.

917
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 2: Two with email him on Stephen at seven oh two

918
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:33,360
Speaker 2: dot co dot Z.

919
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:36,400
Speaker 3: Normally at this time, of course you hear from Rutuendo

920
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 3: and Dingui about what's happening on our constance, and he

921
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:41,399
Speaker 3: will be back with us next week. But something caught

922
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:44,120
Speaker 3: my eye yesterday that I thought could be quite important,

923
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 3: and also the suggestion that we should not ignore what's

924
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 3: happening in Uganda. There's so much noise around at the moment,

925
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,240
Speaker 3: but Uganda has been involved in a long running struggle

926
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,080
Speaker 3: for democratic change. And there's a piece published in Daily

927
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 3: Maverick yesterday by ten Dibet the form of Zimbarbwean Prime

928
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 3: Minister Greg Mills and Luis Ravina, and it explains how

929
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:06,000
Speaker 3: a group is really trying to bring democratic change and

930
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 3: along with it, I suppose finding themselves having to remove

931
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:12,279
Speaker 3: the present you wear Rimus seventy. The question is how

932
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 3: do you do that through democratic means? Greg Mills is

933
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:18,239
Speaker 3: with the Platform for African Democrats. Great, good evening, it's

934
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:20,280
Speaker 3: been a long time. Good to talk to you again.

935
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:23,279
Speaker 3: We've all heard of you. Where Rimus seven he's been

936
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 3: in power for what nearly forty years, We've probably heard

937
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 3: of the person who's spearheading these attempts, partly because of

938
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:32,840
Speaker 3: his name, Bobby Wine. He's been leading the opposition to

939
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 3: Miss sevene. What kind of group is he leading in

940
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:36,880
Speaker 3: opposition to Miss seventy.

941
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 13: Well, he's mainly leading a group that is led well

942
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 13: reflects the views of young people in Ugandan society. It's

943
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:53,120
Speaker 13: an extraordinary young society. The median ages under eighteen. It's

944
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 13: a society that's very fast growing, forty six million people,

945
00:49:56,880 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 13: projected to be over eighty million people by the year

946
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 13: twenty fifty. So he is reflecting what people really want,

947
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 13: and they don't want an eighty one year old or

948
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 13: nearly eighty two year old who's been in power this

949
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 13: month for forty years, who's increasingly violent and his methods

950
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 13: of staying in power given the democratic challenge, and they

951
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:24,320
Speaker 13: particularly it seems don't want his son, who seems the

952
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 13: most likely person to take over. So this is as

953
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 13: much an election on the fifteenth of January about the

954
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:34,520
Speaker 13: seventies rule, but also about who's actually going to take

955
00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 13: over from him as he heads towards his pension debt.

956
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:43,319
Speaker 13: And Bobby Wine reflects he's forty three years old, he's

957
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:47,000
Speaker 13: a reggae star. He reflects a different future, different concerns

958
00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 13: for Ugandans, and he is I think this time round,

959
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 13: it's not the first time he stood for the presidency.

960
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:58,240
Speaker 13: This time around, he's led a remarkable campaign, almost Gandhi

961
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:04,880
Speaker 13: like in its resistance to continuous interference and intimidation. And

962
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 13: I think he's shown the way and invented some new paragraphs,

963
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 13: as it were, in the playbook for African Democrats about

964
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 13: how to confront authoritarianism and the extreme actions that some

965
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:18,839
Speaker 13: people take and try to stay in power.

966
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,280
Speaker 3: I mean, in some ways, it's the kind of classic

967
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:24,239
Speaker 3: thing that happens. You have a person's almost always a

968
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 3: man stays in power for a very long time, wants

969
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:30,919
Speaker 3: to see their rule perpetuated off and through a child

970
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 3: of theirs, and it's younger people in a society and

971
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 3: offering an African society that rebel against that.

972
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean, I think you made the point earlier

973
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 13: in your previous discussion that it's all about the politics,

974
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 13: and it is all about the politics. You've got to

975
00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 13: get the politics right. And what misseventy did back in

976
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:51,279
Speaker 13: nineteen eighty six, and it's a remarkable that we're still

977
00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:54,319
Speaker 13: talking about somebody who took part in nineteen eighty six

978
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:58,080
Speaker 13: was he attempted to get the politics right, and then

979
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 13: twenty years later he introduced democracy as part of a

980
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 13: phased in approach, which he had promised, but he's kept

981
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:07,840
Speaker 13: a very tight grip on it ever since. And what

982
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:11,960
Speaker 13: young people want is not an economy that's grinding out

983
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:17,440
Speaker 13: growth at three or four percent, where they scarcely exist

984
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:20,480
Speaker 13: one thousand dollars a year a covert of income. What

985
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:23,960
Speaker 13: they want is a very much faster growing economy. They

986
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 13: want some degree of renewal, particularly in urban areas which

987
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:31,440
Speaker 13: are congregating very fast in Campala, and they want a

988
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:35,239
Speaker 13: different way of doing things and Bobby Wine represents that hope.

989
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 13: And I think he's led his campaign this time round

990
00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:42,480
Speaker 13: with a degree of genius because every time the government

991
00:52:42,560 --> 00:52:47,200
Speaker 13: has attempted to prevent him from doing anything use his flag.

992
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 13: For instance, he's adopted the Ugandan flag when they've turned

993
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 13: off the Internet. He's put people onto Bitchat when they've

994
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:58,120
Speaker 13: said they're not allowed to import stylink anymore. He's encouraged

995
00:52:58,120 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 13: people to sign up immedity to startle and so on

996
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 13: and so forth. And he's also put pressure on businesses

997
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:07,480
Speaker 13: and donors who are doing business with the Ugandan regime

998
00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:11,000
Speaker 13: and in a sense supporting this level of authoritarianism. So

999
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 13: he's played very smart. Whether that's enough to win, we'll

1000
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:19,040
Speaker 13: have to wait and see. I suspect violence and intimidation

1001
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 13: will crank up over the next ten days as we

1002
00:53:23,160 --> 00:53:25,759
Speaker 13: approach that election date. But it's going to be I

1003
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:30,239
Speaker 13: think the most important election of the seventies tenure, and

1004
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:33,040
Speaker 13: certainly the one that defines his legacy, because, as I said,

1005
00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:35,919
Speaker 13: it's not so much about the seventie but but about

1006
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:37,160
Speaker 13: who takes over from him.

1007
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 3: They're always certain, I hate to say, common features in

1008
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:43,440
Speaker 3: this case and in these cases, and one of them

1009
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:48,120
Speaker 3: becomes around the integrity of the election process. Now we're

1010
00:53:48,200 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 3: lucky enough to very open system, partly because it was

1011
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:54,840
Speaker 3: negotiated at a time when nobody trusted anyone else, and

1012
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 3: party agents can watch the entire process. What's the situation

1013
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 3: like with the I presume an electrical commission or a

1014
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:07,040
Speaker 3: similar body in Uganda, and is that where the dispute

1015
00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:07,680
Speaker 3: might end up.

1016
00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean I think that no one's expecting the

1017
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 13: Independence Electoral Commission to be particularly independent or particularly free

1018
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 13: or transparent. There will probably be some degree of fiddling

1019
00:54:20,719 --> 00:54:24,879
Speaker 13: of the results. There will certainly be attempts to run

1020
00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 13: interference on those who vote for Wine. They'll be interference

1021
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 13: with parallel voter tabulation processes. They will just make life

1022
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:38,120
Speaker 13: very difficult for people. And traditionally the Ugandan authorities, I

1023
00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:40,520
Speaker 13: mean they arrested keys of the sieger who's been in

1024
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 13: jail now for nearly eighteen months when he was the

1025
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,960
Speaker 13: presidential candidate, a former colleague of mis seventy. They arrested

1026
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 13: them on election then, and the last time round they

1027
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:52,920
Speaker 13: had an election in twenty twenty one, they surrounded Bobby

1028
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:55,719
Speaker 13: Wine's house and kept him under house arrest. So they're

1029
00:54:55,800 --> 00:55:00,359
Speaker 13: pretty used to playing all these games to slow things down.

1030
00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 13: But the lesson from other processes in Africa elections is

1031
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:07,799
Speaker 13: very simple. Is If you're going to win, you're going

1032
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 13: to have to win really big. You're going to have

1033
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:13,120
Speaker 13: to win big enough that even when the rig is in,

1034
00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 13: even when the counting slows and we then know that

1035
00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:19,640
Speaker 13: the rig is in, that you win so big that

1036
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:23,359
Speaker 13: it doesn't make any difference. That's certainly the lesson from

1037
00:55:23,480 --> 00:55:28,080
Speaker 13: Zambia in twenty twenty one. To remove Edgar Lungu as president,

1038
00:55:28,480 --> 00:55:31,840
Speaker 13: Hikanda Hitchlima had to really win big sixty percent in

1039
00:55:31,920 --> 00:55:34,759
Speaker 13: that instance, and Bobby Wine is going to have to

1040
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:36,759
Speaker 13: do the same and that's going to take some doing.

1041
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:39,799
Speaker 13: If you see video footage of where he is, I mean,

1042
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:44,399
Speaker 13: he's continuously having the police Bryan push him off the road,

1043
00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:49,320
Speaker 13: send him down village roads, prevent him from sleeping overnights

1044
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:53,280
Speaker 13: in places. But he's maintained this degree of media scrutiny,

1045
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:57,239
Speaker 13: and I suspect he'll also do that with the Electoral Commission.

1046
00:55:57,719 --> 00:56:02,719
Speaker 13: He'll maintain a level of of transparency as spotlight as

1047
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 13: it were, on what the Electoral Commission does. And that's

1048
00:56:05,640 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 13: the way, the only way in which.

1049
00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 6: He can win.

1050
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:11,200
Speaker 3: When democracy came to South Africa, there was quite a

1051
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:14,480
Speaker 3: big economic dividend. There's a reason why many of the

1052
00:56:14,600 --> 00:56:17,319
Speaker 3: democracies of the world are richer than countries that are

1053
00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:20,480
Speaker 3: not democracies. Obviously one or two sort of outliers there.

1054
00:56:21,760 --> 00:56:25,000
Speaker 3: If you again, it becomes truly democratic, does that automatically

1055
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:28,600
Speaker 3: lead to an economic dividend of some kind, Well, it

1056
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 3: should give.

1057
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:31,560
Speaker 13: I mean, this is a lot of people say, you know,

1058
00:56:32,200 --> 00:56:34,759
Speaker 13: Africa should be like East Asia. You know, you don't

1059
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:38,880
Speaker 13: need democracy. What you need is a benevolent dictator, an

1060
00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:42,440
Speaker 13: authoritarian as it were, who gets things done. But the

1061
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:46,799
Speaker 13: record in Africa that the authoritarians that we have don't

1062
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:50,160
Speaker 13: get things done. They're even worse than the democrats. And

1063
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:54,520
Speaker 13: the correlation between democracy and economic growth in Africa is

1064
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 13: very clear and and economic wealth is very clear. And

1065
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:02,919
Speaker 13: that's because democracy. These tend to encourage diversification. They tend

1066
00:57:02,960 --> 00:57:07,040
Speaker 13: to encourage investment in things other than those things that

1067
00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 13: you dig out of the ground or pump out of

1068
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:13,360
Speaker 13: the ground oil gas and minerals. They encourage investment in

1069
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 13: secondary industries and services and so on. And you're not

1070
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:20,320
Speaker 13: going to get that without democratic protection. So I believe

1071
00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:23,120
Speaker 13: you will see an economic dividend, whether it'll be fast

1072
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 13: enough to satisfy people's expectations. That's another question. You'll have

1073
00:57:27,760 --> 00:57:31,520
Speaker 13: to probably tamper those down over time. But I do

1074
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:35,440
Speaker 13: think you'll see a level of investment into u Ganda

1075
00:57:35,520 --> 00:57:38,439
Speaker 13: that you're not currently seeing. And you're getting this real

1076
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:44,440
Speaker 13: rise of anger from young people about their future, about

1077
00:57:44,520 --> 00:57:47,440
Speaker 13: where they want to be, and the fact that this

1078
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:51,280
Speaker 13: regime is not really delivering to everybody. It's saying delivering

1079
00:57:51,320 --> 00:57:53,160
Speaker 13: to an elite few. And I think South Africa is,

1080
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 13: to go back to your earlier interview, illustrates the importance

1081
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 13: of getting the politics right. I mean, the difference in

1082
00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 13: South Africa, in my opinion, is because we have a

1083
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:08,080
Speaker 13: g and U. There's never a linear line in improvements

1084
00:58:08,200 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 13: and in reform. It's never straight up. It's always going

1085
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:13,720
Speaker 13: to be a kind of wonky wobbly path. But in

1086
00:58:13,840 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 13: South Africa's case, since the GNU, the path has tilted upwards.

1087
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:19,920
Speaker 13: And I suspect that's what you're going to see in

1088
00:58:20,080 --> 00:58:23,040
Speaker 13: Uganda with political change. You certainly won't see it without it.

1089
00:58:23,440 --> 00:58:25,600
Speaker 3: Greg Miles really appreciate the time, thank you with the

1090
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 3: Platform for African Democrats, very interesting, lots of resonances with

1091
00:58:29,000 --> 00:58:32,160
Speaker 3: many other countries. The situation in Uganda. He with The

1092
00:58:32,200 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 3: Money Show. Just gone seven point thirty for The Money

1093
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:39,640
Speaker 3: Show Personal Finance with Warren Ingram twenty four minutes now

1094
00:58:39,760 --> 00:58:43,200
Speaker 3: to eight. The time will not surprise you that Warren

1095
00:58:43,240 --> 00:58:45,360
Speaker 3: and Gram's been looking at He doesn't call them new

1096
00:58:45,440 --> 00:58:49,400
Speaker 3: Year's resolutions, but he does talk about one money habit

1097
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 3: to change this year. He's a Divide financial planner at

1098
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:56,040
Speaker 3: Galileo Capital. Warren, good evening and happy twenty twenty six

1099
00:58:56,080 --> 00:58:56,280
Speaker 3: to you.

1100
00:58:57,520 --> 00:59:00,840
Speaker 14: Thank you so much, Stephen. That's I'm hoping it's going

1101
00:59:00,920 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 14: to be a fantastic year like last year for South

1102
00:59:03,640 --> 00:59:04,560
Speaker 14: African investors.

1103
00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:07,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and certainly all of the things seem

1104
00:59:07,680 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 3: to be lining up in the right way. So there's

1105
00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:11,720
Speaker 3: a lot I think to look forward to in twenty

1106
00:59:11,800 --> 00:59:14,680
Speaker 3: twenty six. Okay, do you need to start at the

1107
00:59:14,720 --> 00:59:19,000
Speaker 3: beginning here? Why is it important at this time to

1108
00:59:19,360 --> 00:59:21,720
Speaker 3: sort of change your relationship a little bit with money?

1109
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 3: Which is really a question I suppose about why on

1110
00:59:24,320 --> 00:59:26,919
Speaker 3: Earth do humans do New Year's resolutions in the first place.

1111
00:59:28,080 --> 00:59:33,320
Speaker 14: It's one of my most frustrating behaviors to observe, you know,

1112
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:37,720
Speaker 14: with with humanity, where you know, I'm someone who exercises

1113
00:59:37,760 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 14: pretty consistently through a year, and sometimes I have to

1114
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:43,000
Speaker 14: go to gym and not not able to go running

1115
00:59:43,040 --> 00:59:47,040
Speaker 14: on the mountain or on the roads. And always at

1116
00:59:47,120 --> 00:59:50,960
Speaker 14: the start of the year, the gym is absolutely overcrowded

1117
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:54,800
Speaker 14: and packed, and you know, when you look around in

1118
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 14: sort of you know, three months later, the gym's pretty

1119
00:59:57,800 --> 01:00:00,720
Speaker 14: pretty back to normal in other words, largely empty. And

1120
01:00:01,440 --> 01:00:04,919
Speaker 14: and we see that same behavior, you know, somewhere around

1121
01:00:04,960 --> 01:00:07,800
Speaker 14: the beginning of spring, first of September, the gym falls

1122
01:00:07,880 --> 01:00:11,880
Speaker 14: up again. And and I think it happens in many aspects.

1123
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:14,080
Speaker 14: People look at their fitness, they look at their their

1124
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:17,600
Speaker 14: financial wellbeing, and and usually it happens when we're on

1125
01:00:17,680 --> 01:00:20,440
Speaker 14: holiday and and we, you know, take a moment to

1126
01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:23,600
Speaker 14: take stock of life. And you know, if it's if

1127
01:00:23,640 --> 01:00:24,920
Speaker 14: it's someone like me, you know, you look at the

1128
01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:27,320
Speaker 14: belly and you go, well, that belly's not as as

1129
01:00:27,400 --> 01:00:29,040
Speaker 14: tight as I would like it, that it needs to

1130
01:00:29,080 --> 01:00:31,160
Speaker 14: get a bit slimmed down. And you know, if if

1131
01:00:31,200 --> 01:00:33,000
Speaker 14: the if the money is not as good as it

1132
01:00:33,040 --> 01:00:35,440
Speaker 14: should be, the you know, the investment balances aren't what

1133
01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:37,640
Speaker 14: they what they would like, what I would like them

1134
01:00:37,680 --> 01:00:39,520
Speaker 14: to be, then that's the time when you've got a

1135
01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:42,560
Speaker 14: bit of time to reflect, to say, okay, let me

1136
01:00:43,000 --> 01:00:47,560
Speaker 14: reset and restart. And when we look at these resolutions

1137
01:00:47,600 --> 01:00:50,280
Speaker 14: that people make, it's it's a bit like you know,

1138
01:00:50,520 --> 01:00:54,360
Speaker 14: a government policy. We we have fifty priorities. And when

1139
01:00:54,440 --> 01:00:57,760
Speaker 14: you have fifty priorities, guess what, you don't accomplish anything

1140
01:00:57,840 --> 01:01:00,960
Speaker 14: because that's far too much for any one person or

1141
01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:04,560
Speaker 14: any one government to accomplish. So the reality is we

1142
01:01:04,680 --> 01:01:08,120
Speaker 14: need to narrow down and focus rather than have a

1143
01:01:08,200 --> 01:01:11,040
Speaker 14: long list of things that were unhappy with, because you're

1144
01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:12,960
Speaker 14: never going to get through, you know, five or ten

1145
01:01:13,040 --> 01:01:15,600
Speaker 14: years resolutions by the end of the years. It's just

1146
01:01:15,760 --> 01:01:16,400
Speaker 14: not possible.

1147
01:01:18,240 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 3: You suggest we should change just one money habit. And

1148
01:01:22,480 --> 01:01:25,320
Speaker 3: the problem I suppose that you're pointing to is that

1149
01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:28,920
Speaker 3: we'll often make a series of resolutions. This is what

1150
01:01:28,960 --> 01:01:31,240
Speaker 3: I'm going to change my finances this year. I'm going

1151
01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:33,280
Speaker 3: to have ten twenty bullet points under that I'm going

1152
01:01:33,320 --> 01:01:35,640
Speaker 3: to do all of these things. What happens when we

1153
01:01:35,720 --> 01:01:35,960
Speaker 3: do that.

1154
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:40,640
Speaker 14: Well, I mean typically we can't make a lot of progress.

1155
01:01:41,440 --> 01:01:43,120
Speaker 14: You know, if we've got five or ten things, and

1156
01:01:43,200 --> 01:01:45,440
Speaker 14: especially if they're relatively big, you know, I'm going to

1157
01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:48,040
Speaker 14: you know, run comrades by the you know, the end

1158
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:49,960
Speaker 14: of March and whatever. You know, I run a marathon

1159
01:01:50,000 --> 01:01:51,920
Speaker 14: by the end of March, and I'm going to have

1160
01:01:52,000 --> 01:01:54,440
Speaker 14: saved myself an extra million round all of those kind

1161
01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:57,800
Speaker 14: of you know, very big pipe dreams. And if we

1162
01:01:57,920 --> 01:02:00,520
Speaker 14: set those kinds of goals, you know, at the start

1163
01:02:00,560 --> 01:02:04,400
Speaker 14: of a year and they feel big and they feel

1164
01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:07,880
Speaker 14: very far away, what happens is we lose motivation because

1165
01:02:08,320 --> 01:02:10,600
Speaker 14: you know, human beings lack progress. We like to track

1166
01:02:11,160 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 14: how we're going, and we like to see that we're

1167
01:02:13,160 --> 01:02:17,160
Speaker 14: making strides towards a goal. And and so to me,

1168
01:02:17,960 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 14: you've got to give yourself, you know, a much more

1169
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 14: attainable goal. And and really, you know, you know, you

1170
01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:26,520
Speaker 14: want to find a way of saying, okay, if it's money,

1171
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:28,680
Speaker 14: this is the money show, let's talk about money and

1172
01:02:29,000 --> 01:02:33,560
Speaker 14: not fitness. Then actually I need to set myself a small,

1173
01:02:34,000 --> 01:02:37,840
Speaker 14: realistic goal that I can actually achieve, where where I

1174
01:02:37,920 --> 01:02:42,680
Speaker 14: can reward myself and feel the pride of making progress

1175
01:02:42,760 --> 01:02:44,680
Speaker 14: and taking my life, you know, in a direction where

1176
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:47,520
Speaker 14: I wanted to go, rather than saying I've got this

1177
01:02:47,680 --> 01:02:50,160
Speaker 14: you know list of goals and actually I've got nowhere.

1178
01:02:50,200 --> 01:02:53,560
Speaker 14: And then all the sense of shame and frustration and

1179
01:02:53,800 --> 01:02:56,880
Speaker 14: embarrassment builds up. And and when that happens, what we

1180
01:02:57,000 --> 01:02:59,480
Speaker 14: do is we go back to the old habits which

1181
01:02:59,560 --> 01:03:01,480
Speaker 14: got us into the problem we're in right now.

1182
01:03:02,760 --> 01:03:05,000
Speaker 3: I mean, it's like eating. You know, you you you

1183
01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:07,800
Speaker 3: miss your your dietary goal for the week, you feel

1184
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:09,440
Speaker 3: bad about it, so you have a chocolate. You know,

1185
01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:14,240
Speaker 3: it's exactly the same thing. In a way, does changing

1186
01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:16,920
Speaker 3: one habit are you likely to be much more successful?

1187
01:03:16,960 --> 01:03:20,040
Speaker 3: And I'm talking, I suppose about building momentum because I've

1188
01:03:20,040 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 3: found often in so many things, exercise, dieting, money, once

1189
01:03:24,680 --> 01:03:27,120
Speaker 3: you get momentum going life becomes a lot easier.

1190
01:03:28,840 --> 01:03:31,480
Speaker 14: Exactly. And I'm sorry I keep coming back to fitness,

1191
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 14: but it's such a nice analogy for money. If you

1192
01:03:33,840 --> 01:03:35,640
Speaker 14: one of those people that struggles to get up and

1193
01:03:35,720 --> 01:03:37,880
Speaker 14: go for a walk, let's just say you want to

1194
01:03:37,960 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 14: you want to start getting on the on the road

1195
01:03:39,720 --> 01:03:41,880
Speaker 14: and just start walking just to just to get the

1196
01:03:41,960 --> 01:03:46,680
Speaker 14: legs going again. The secret is, don't do anything tonight

1197
01:03:46,880 --> 01:03:50,200
Speaker 14: except pack out your walking shoes, pack out to all

1198
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:52,720
Speaker 14: the stuff you need to wear tomorrow morning, and then

1199
01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:55,440
Speaker 14: put it right in your bedroom door. So that you

1200
01:03:55,520 --> 01:03:58,680
Speaker 14: can't but avoid bumping into it. When you wake up

1201
01:03:58,720 --> 01:04:01,080
Speaker 14: in the morning, and it's one less thing you have

1202
01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:03,080
Speaker 14: to decide to do. It's already done for you. All

1203
01:04:03,120 --> 01:04:05,160
Speaker 14: you've got to do is put the clothes on and

1204
01:04:05,320 --> 01:04:07,720
Speaker 14: get out the door. And then the very last thing

1205
01:04:07,760 --> 01:04:10,160
Speaker 14: you do set the alarm appropriately so that you get

1206
01:04:10,240 --> 01:04:12,479
Speaker 14: up and go and And it's the same with money,

1207
01:04:12,520 --> 01:04:15,080
Speaker 14: where where if we can if we can just do

1208
01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:17,640
Speaker 14: one thing, even if it seems like a small thing,

1209
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:20,840
Speaker 14: that we can actually achieve. I mean, it doesn't take

1210
01:04:20,880 --> 01:04:22,360
Speaker 14: a heck of a lot to pack out your your

1211
01:04:22,480 --> 01:04:24,720
Speaker 14: your running clothes. It's the same with money. Can you

1212
01:04:24,840 --> 01:04:27,800
Speaker 14: do one thing that might not seem like saving a

1213
01:04:27,840 --> 01:04:30,360
Speaker 14: million round? But can you take one small step, one

1214
01:04:30,480 --> 01:04:33,320
Speaker 14: action that you do once a week or once a month,

1215
01:04:33,400 --> 01:04:35,680
Speaker 14: whatever it is, to get you on that goal to

1216
01:04:35,880 --> 01:04:38,040
Speaker 14: to the bigger goal eventually. And I think that's the

1217
01:04:38,120 --> 01:04:40,840
Speaker 14: thing here is then we start to build momentum because

1218
01:04:40,840 --> 01:04:43,720
Speaker 14: we start to feel good about ourselves. We've actually achieved something,

1219
01:04:43,760 --> 01:04:45,800
Speaker 14: you know, we we did that one step or that,

1220
01:04:46,240 --> 01:04:48,400
Speaker 14: you know, whether it's once a week or once a month,

1221
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:50,959
Speaker 14: and it encourages us to keep going and we don't

1222
01:04:51,120 --> 01:04:53,440
Speaker 14: you know, lose faith and and kind of build up

1223
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:56,560
Speaker 14: that that financial shame, which I think bothers a lot

1224
01:04:56,640 --> 01:04:57,439
Speaker 14: of people in the world.

1225
01:04:58,680 --> 01:05:01,160
Speaker 3: Okay, so one fin atial habit. How do we make

1226
01:05:01,240 --> 01:05:01,720
Speaker 3: it stick?

1227
01:05:03,600 --> 01:05:06,800
Speaker 14: I think there are three things to make make sure

1228
01:05:06,840 --> 01:05:10,200
Speaker 14: that habit sticks, and the very first one is please

1229
01:05:10,240 --> 01:05:13,480
Speaker 14: don't sit down and say, okay, I want to save more,

1230
01:05:13,960 --> 01:05:17,120
Speaker 14: because that doesn't mean anything more more. You know, if

1231
01:05:17,160 --> 01:05:20,440
Speaker 14: you save one cent more than you saved last year,

1232
01:05:20,520 --> 01:05:23,120
Speaker 14: then you've saved more, doesn't It's not a measurable thing.

1233
01:05:23,560 --> 01:05:27,800
Speaker 14: So rather say I'd like to save ten round a month,

1234
01:05:28,200 --> 01:05:30,480
Speaker 14: or I want to save you know, one hundred round

1235
01:05:30,520 --> 01:05:34,960
Speaker 14: a week extra than what I was doing before. Make

1236
01:05:35,040 --> 01:05:38,560
Speaker 14: it attainable, obviously, I think, and I shouldn't say obviously,

1237
01:05:38,600 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 14: a lot of people don't set attainable goals. But look

1238
01:05:41,320 --> 01:05:43,960
Speaker 14: at what you can can do, look at what's achievable,

1239
01:05:44,280 --> 01:05:47,440
Speaker 14: and then make it absolutely measurable and say, okay, if

1240
01:05:47,520 --> 01:05:50,000
Speaker 14: the goal is I want to increase my savings, I'm

1241
01:05:50,040 --> 01:05:51,960
Speaker 14: going to on the first of every month, you know,

1242
01:05:52,320 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 14: soon after pay day, I'm going to set up a

1243
01:05:54,640 --> 01:05:57,000
Speaker 14: debit order so that I move you know, one thousand

1244
01:05:57,040 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 14: and round from my current account into my savings. And

1245
01:06:00,360 --> 01:06:02,720
Speaker 14: if you set up a debit order, you've done something

1246
01:06:02,840 --> 01:06:05,560
Speaker 14: that's specific, You've done it on a particular day, and

1247
01:06:05,680 --> 01:06:08,120
Speaker 14: it's something you can measure and tick off and give

1248
01:06:08,160 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 14: yourself that pat on the back to say I've done

1249
01:06:10,840 --> 01:06:13,439
Speaker 14: the one thing and I'm on my way. I'm making

1250
01:06:13,800 --> 01:06:17,200
Speaker 14: a very significant difference to where I was last year,

1251
01:06:17,280 --> 01:06:19,360
Speaker 14: and it takes a bit of time to see the

1252
01:06:19,400 --> 01:06:21,240
Speaker 14: benefit of that. But if you can do that, and

1253
01:06:21,320 --> 01:06:25,160
Speaker 14: you can be very specific, then that's the key to this.

1254
01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:28,600
Speaker 14: When you just say I'm going to save more, it's

1255
01:06:28,680 --> 01:06:31,320
Speaker 14: not measurable, it's not attainable actually, because you don't even

1256
01:06:31,400 --> 01:06:34,400
Speaker 14: know what you're really trying to achieve. So my suggestion

1257
01:06:34,560 --> 01:06:37,720
Speaker 14: is make it specific, make it attainable, make it easy

1258
01:06:37,800 --> 01:06:41,320
Speaker 14: to measure, and then get going. And then I think

1259
01:06:41,600 --> 01:06:44,520
Speaker 14: the second step is we've got to manage human behavior.

1260
01:06:44,680 --> 01:06:47,880
Speaker 14: So one of the things is we shouldn't have to

1261
01:06:48,000 --> 01:06:51,680
Speaker 14: decide every month, Okay, how much money am I going

1262
01:06:51,800 --> 01:06:54,360
Speaker 14: to save. What we should rather do is decide once

1263
01:06:54,600 --> 01:06:56,680
Speaker 14: that I'm going to set up a debit order, or

1264
01:06:56,720 --> 01:06:59,040
Speaker 14: I'm going to put a reminder in my calendar. If

1265
01:06:59,040 --> 01:07:01,600
Speaker 14: you don't want to set up debit orders, and it's

1266
01:07:01,640 --> 01:07:04,040
Speaker 14: going to be on the same day every month, and

1267
01:07:04,360 --> 01:07:08,280
Speaker 14: I'm going to start then with that decision already automated.

1268
01:07:08,960 --> 01:07:11,680
Speaker 14: Because we do like things to be easy in life.

1269
01:07:11,760 --> 01:07:14,600
Speaker 14: That's why so many people keep their bank accounts at

1270
01:07:14,680 --> 01:07:16,760
Speaker 14: banks that they don't like anymore, because it takes so

1271
01:07:16,880 --> 01:07:20,240
Speaker 14: much inertia to kind of overcome the thing that you're in,

1272
01:07:20,360 --> 01:07:22,560
Speaker 14: the habit that you're in. And one way to do

1273
01:07:22,720 --> 01:07:25,360
Speaker 14: that is if you make it automatic. It's out of

1274
01:07:25,440 --> 01:07:29,000
Speaker 14: your life already, the decisions made. Something's happening every month

1275
01:07:29,360 --> 01:07:31,720
Speaker 14: and it's something that works in your favor. So you

1276
01:07:31,800 --> 01:07:35,720
Speaker 14: don't need additional willpower. You pretend back to your chocolate example,

1277
01:07:35,760 --> 01:07:38,440
Speaker 14: you don't need willpower to not buy the chocolate if

1278
01:07:38,640 --> 01:07:40,240
Speaker 14: I mean, not eat the chocolate if it's not in

1279
01:07:40,320 --> 01:07:44,120
Speaker 14: your house. So it takes inertia or overcoming inertia to

1280
01:07:44,160 --> 01:07:45,640
Speaker 14: go and you know, get in your car and drive

1281
01:07:46,080 --> 01:07:47,920
Speaker 14: to go and buy the thing, or to order it

1282
01:07:48,040 --> 01:07:51,720
Speaker 14: from a retail and get them to deliberatey. So anything

1283
01:07:51,760 --> 01:07:55,280
Speaker 14: that requires willpower in a positive way will be difficult

1284
01:07:55,480 --> 01:07:58,480
Speaker 14: unless you automated. So to me that step two and

1285
01:07:58,520 --> 01:08:01,440
Speaker 14: then the last one is it measurable so that you

1286
01:08:01,520 --> 01:08:04,120
Speaker 14: can see progress. In other words, if you're saying I

1287
01:08:04,200 --> 01:08:06,480
Speaker 14: want to save one hundred rund a week, okay, that's

1288
01:08:06,640 --> 01:08:09,640
Speaker 14: four or five hundred rund a month, and track that

1289
01:08:10,040 --> 01:08:12,240
Speaker 14: once a month, look back and say have I done that?

1290
01:08:12,400 --> 01:08:14,880
Speaker 14: Have I saved that money? And over the year that

1291
01:08:14,960 --> 01:08:18,360
Speaker 14: should account to whatever the number is that you've set yourself.

1292
01:08:18,800 --> 01:08:21,200
Speaker 14: And so I've either you know, I've saved it for

1293
01:08:21,320 --> 01:08:23,679
Speaker 14: fifty two weeks of the year, or I've saved twelve

1294
01:08:23,760 --> 01:08:26,760
Speaker 14: thousand because the goal was one thousand round a month.

1295
01:08:26,960 --> 01:08:29,559
Speaker 14: But you want to see those goals in a measured way,

1296
01:08:29,640 --> 01:08:32,040
Speaker 14: and then you want to track your progress. It also

1297
01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:35,280
Speaker 14: motivates you if you're slightly off the goal to then

1298
01:08:35,400 --> 01:08:38,120
Speaker 14: get back on track again and get that back to

1299
01:08:38,200 --> 01:08:40,680
Speaker 14: the first point. It needs to be attainable. You want

1300
01:08:40,760 --> 01:08:43,880
Speaker 14: to know that your goals are measurable and within reach

1301
01:08:44,000 --> 01:08:47,240
Speaker 14: because then you keep the motivation. So to me, those

1302
01:08:47,280 --> 01:08:50,559
Speaker 14: are the three steps to make this habit stick. Stephen.

1303
01:08:52,000 --> 01:08:54,640
Speaker 3: There's some bad things that we do, and you know,

1304
01:08:54,680 --> 01:08:56,760
Speaker 3: if you can change the bad habits, you sort of

1305
01:08:56,920 --> 01:08:59,680
Speaker 3: you know, changing it to the positive. And one of

1306
01:08:59,720 --> 01:09:02,200
Speaker 3: them is and I mean I do this all the time,

1307
01:09:02,240 --> 01:09:05,360
Speaker 3: Warren is, I find myself looking at my bank account

1308
01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:08,599
Speaker 3: on my phone to see how I'm doing. You think

1309
01:09:08,680 --> 01:09:09,680
Speaker 3: that's a very bad thing.

1310
01:09:11,000 --> 01:09:14,960
Speaker 14: It is if you're in both respects. Let's say you're

1311
01:09:15,080 --> 01:09:19,759
Speaker 14: in a bad financial position. Well, then looking at your debit.

1312
01:09:19,920 --> 01:09:21,840
Speaker 14: You know, your credit balance is how much you owe

1313
01:09:22,000 --> 01:09:25,000
Speaker 14: the banks every single day. It's not going to change anything.

1314
01:09:25,040 --> 01:09:26,280
Speaker 14: You know, you're gonna look at it today and you're

1315
01:09:26,280 --> 01:09:29,439
Speaker 14: gonna look at it tomorrow. It's looking at something is

1316
01:09:29,520 --> 01:09:32,840
Speaker 14: not going to change the reality. And all it does,

1317
01:09:32,960 --> 01:09:36,560
Speaker 14: I think it actually just makes us more anxious, but

1318
01:09:36,880 --> 01:09:39,200
Speaker 14: potentially starts to affect other parts of our life. So

1319
01:09:39,320 --> 01:09:41,840
Speaker 14: you might not sleep as well, and that starts to

1320
01:09:41,920 --> 01:09:44,640
Speaker 14: spiral where you wake up in the morning tide. You know,

1321
01:09:44,760 --> 01:09:46,880
Speaker 14: then you end up spending on the extra coffee you

1322
01:09:46,920 --> 01:09:48,599
Speaker 14: promised you weren't going to buy so that you get

1323
01:09:48,640 --> 01:09:51,080
Speaker 14: through the day, and then you check your bank account

1324
01:09:51,080 --> 01:09:53,080
Speaker 14: at the end of the night again and you get

1325
01:09:53,160 --> 01:09:55,479
Speaker 14: more upset and you don't sleep, and so you can

1326
01:09:55,560 --> 01:09:58,479
Speaker 14: set yourself off on a very bad track. Where whereas

1327
01:09:58,560 --> 01:10:01,400
Speaker 14: if you say whatever your day is, but you know,

1328
01:10:01,880 --> 01:10:05,200
Speaker 14: let's just say it's it's Sunday, morning, you're going to

1329
01:10:05,320 --> 01:10:08,559
Speaker 14: check your bank account to measure your progress. So you're

1330
01:10:08,560 --> 01:10:11,799
Speaker 14: going to be saying, I'm checking my account for purpose,

1331
01:10:11,920 --> 01:10:14,120
Speaker 14: with the purpose in other words, I want to know

1332
01:10:14,240 --> 01:10:16,680
Speaker 14: that I've controlled my spending over the week and and

1333
01:10:16,800 --> 01:10:18,960
Speaker 14: I've actually managed to save a bit of money. So

1334
01:10:19,439 --> 01:10:23,600
Speaker 14: it's a reward for doing good. Or alternatively, it's the

1335
01:10:23,680 --> 01:10:27,040
Speaker 14: one day a week where you now take stock and say, okay,

1336
01:10:27,120 --> 01:10:30,200
Speaker 14: hang on, you know the week's about to start again next,

1337
01:10:30,320 --> 01:10:32,559
Speaker 14: you know, tomorrow, whatever the day is, and I need

1338
01:10:32,640 --> 01:10:35,080
Speaker 14: to just be very careful. I've overspent in the past week,

1339
01:10:35,160 --> 01:10:37,360
Speaker 14: and I need to reset to make sure that I

1340
01:10:37,720 --> 01:10:40,160
Speaker 14: control the expenditure so that I get to the end

1341
01:10:40,200 --> 01:10:43,720
Speaker 14: of the month and I've achieved the goal. So I

1342
01:10:43,840 --> 01:10:46,680
Speaker 14: think it's it's it's very positive if you if you're

1343
01:10:46,800 --> 01:10:49,719
Speaker 14: checking your account with purpose, but just checking it because

1344
01:10:49,720 --> 01:10:53,679
Speaker 14: it's you know, it's traumatizing. All that's doing is really damaging,

1345
01:10:54,400 --> 01:10:56,719
Speaker 14: damaging your psychology, and it adds back to the shame

1346
01:10:56,800 --> 01:11:00,200
Speaker 14: and all the horrible cycle that you're in. Now to

1347
01:11:00,280 --> 01:11:03,280
Speaker 14: break the cycle, just stop checking, and it's just a

1348
01:11:03,360 --> 01:11:05,559
Speaker 14: habit that we're in, and it's one we can stop

1349
01:11:05,720 --> 01:11:07,880
Speaker 14: very easily. Just stop, you know, just don't look at

1350
01:11:07,920 --> 01:11:08,240
Speaker 14: it again.

1351
01:11:09,000 --> 01:11:11,280
Speaker 3: That there are a lot of there are a lot

1352
01:11:11,320 --> 01:11:14,000
Speaker 3: of a lot of us who will on a particular

1353
01:11:14,120 --> 01:11:16,320
Speaker 3: day of the week go and spend money, and Saturday

1354
01:11:16,400 --> 01:11:18,840
Speaker 3: is a good example of that. And it's sort of

1355
01:11:18,880 --> 01:11:21,040
Speaker 3: Saturdays to day we go shopping, or Saturdays the day

1356
01:11:21,080 --> 01:11:23,800
Speaker 3: we do this and enjoy ourselves. You suggest we need

1357
01:11:23,840 --> 01:11:24,840
Speaker 3: to be very careful of that.

1358
01:11:26,160 --> 01:11:29,599
Speaker 14: Yeah, if you're if you struggle with controlling your spending,

1359
01:11:31,080 --> 01:11:34,920
Speaker 14: then you know, spend now, spend this time looking at

1360
01:11:34,960 --> 01:11:37,439
Speaker 14: the day of the week where where you might be

1361
01:11:37,520 --> 01:11:40,280
Speaker 14: doing that the most, and and you know, you're absolutely right,

1362
01:11:40,360 --> 01:11:42,600
Speaker 14: it might be Saturdays, the day where you kind of

1363
01:11:42,680 --> 01:11:44,479
Speaker 14: wake up and you're all happy with life, and you know,

1364
01:11:44,600 --> 01:11:47,040
Speaker 14: you go and you know, spend a bit on retail

1365
01:11:47,120 --> 01:11:50,160
Speaker 14: therapy because the week was hard or whatever the deal is.

1366
01:11:50,280 --> 01:11:53,240
Speaker 14: And when you look at what you're spending on that

1367
01:11:53,479 --> 01:11:56,240
Speaker 14: day where you kind of blow up a bit of steam,

1368
01:11:56,640 --> 01:11:58,840
Speaker 14: that might be the day of the week that's actually

1369
01:11:58,920 --> 01:12:03,080
Speaker 14: setting your whole finance, your position off track. And so

1370
01:12:03,200 --> 01:12:05,200
Speaker 14: it's not a case of saying that you know you

1371
01:12:05,280 --> 01:12:07,040
Speaker 14: can't have fun on a Saturday, or that you you

1372
01:12:07,280 --> 01:12:09,960
Speaker 14: know you must now live like a hermit and save

1373
01:12:10,160 --> 01:12:12,360
Speaker 14: and have no joy in life anymore. That's certainly not

1374
01:12:12,479 --> 01:12:14,720
Speaker 14: the deal. But it's just a case of saying, be

1375
01:12:14,880 --> 01:12:17,760
Speaker 14: conscious that Saturdays is your week point. So if it

1376
01:12:17,840 --> 01:12:21,000
Speaker 14: is your week point, then don't fall into the bad

1377
01:12:21,040 --> 01:12:24,560
Speaker 14: habit again. Just stop and say, Okay, I'm going to

1378
01:12:24,640 --> 01:12:26,960
Speaker 14: do one thing that's fun and I know what I'm

1379
01:12:26,960 --> 01:12:29,120
Speaker 14: going to spend on it. I'm going to control that expenditure,

1380
01:12:29,160 --> 01:12:31,799
Speaker 14: and then all the other stuff that I've been wasting

1381
01:12:31,880 --> 01:12:35,240
Speaker 14: on purchases on that day, I'm just going to eliminate.

1382
01:12:35,880 --> 01:12:39,280
Speaker 14: You change one day a week. And let's say you know,

1383
01:12:39,400 --> 01:12:42,439
Speaker 14: for some people you know that earned reasonably well, they

1384
01:12:42,520 --> 01:12:45,160
Speaker 14: might be, you know, spending two thousand round every Saturday

1385
01:12:45,240 --> 01:12:48,160
Speaker 14: on random stuff that just makes no difference to their

1386
01:12:48,240 --> 01:12:50,880
Speaker 14: actual lives. You add that up, it gets to over

1387
01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:53,240
Speaker 14: one hundred thousand around in a year, and one hundred

1388
01:12:53,240 --> 01:12:56,000
Speaker 14: thousand round. You know that that starts to become, you know,

1389
01:12:56,120 --> 01:12:58,800
Speaker 14: replacing your car money in a very short space of time.

1390
01:12:59,200 --> 01:13:01,479
Speaker 14: So I think that you can do a lot by

1391
01:13:01,600 --> 01:13:04,200
Speaker 14: just understanding what your bad habits are, and what is

1392
01:13:04,280 --> 01:13:07,160
Speaker 14: the week the weak point in your week, and and

1393
01:13:07,320 --> 01:13:11,760
Speaker 14: make that a controlled spend again, don't start the you're

1394
01:13:11,800 --> 01:13:14,320
Speaker 14: thinking you can't have fun or you can't spend on

1395
01:13:14,680 --> 01:13:17,160
Speaker 14: enjoyment stuff. It's just be a bit more controlled.

1396
01:13:18,800 --> 01:13:20,760
Speaker 3: We have I'm a couple of other bad habits who

1397
01:13:20,760 --> 01:13:23,599
Speaker 3: look at it as well. Tim's got in touch actually

1398
01:13:23,960 --> 01:13:27,160
Speaker 3: Warren and asked, I'd like to improve my personal finance knowledge?

1399
01:13:27,200 --> 01:13:29,840
Speaker 3: What suggestions do you have? Tim will have an answer

1400
01:13:29,880 --> 01:13:32,799
Speaker 3: for you from Warren injustament for The Money Show Personal

1401
01:13:33,000 --> 01:13:36,519
Speaker 3: Finance with Warren Ingram eight minutes to eight the time

1402
01:13:36,680 --> 01:13:39,120
Speaker 3: and Tim's question, Warren, I'd like to improve my personal

1403
01:13:39,200 --> 01:13:42,559
Speaker 3: finance knowledge? What suggestions do you have? Warren? Where would

1404
01:13:42,560 --> 01:13:44,080
Speaker 3: you start? Because I think for a lot of people

1405
01:13:44,720 --> 01:13:47,759
Speaker 3: to begin the process of educating yourself, you don't almost

1406
01:13:47,760 --> 01:13:48,559
Speaker 3: don't know where to start.

1407
01:13:51,080 --> 01:13:55,479
Speaker 14: You know, there's this fabulous segment on this very well

1408
01:13:55,600 --> 01:13:59,160
Speaker 14: respected show called The Money Show. As an idiot and

1409
01:13:59,280 --> 01:14:03,160
Speaker 14: that Money Show, there is this thing called personal Finance,

1410
01:14:03,280 --> 01:14:06,680
Speaker 14: and it's actually available as a podcast, and and and

1411
01:14:06,960 --> 01:14:10,320
Speaker 14: and interesting thing here is I'm not no one asked

1412
01:14:10,360 --> 01:14:12,400
Speaker 14: me to say this, but I just think if you

1413
01:14:12,479 --> 01:14:16,200
Speaker 14: want to get something free that that's useful, you know

1414
01:14:16,320 --> 01:14:17,960
Speaker 14: that this is a place to go. I mean, I

1415
01:14:17,960 --> 01:14:20,080
Speaker 14: think you build up a store of knowledge over time.

1416
01:14:20,160 --> 01:14:23,320
Speaker 14: And again it's doing something once a week where you

1417
01:14:23,400 --> 01:14:26,040
Speaker 14: get a little bit of bite sized information that that

1418
01:14:26,160 --> 01:14:30,320
Speaker 14: builds up. So to me, that's one. The second. The

1419
01:14:30,400 --> 01:14:33,280
Speaker 14: next two are books, and I like books because we

1420
01:14:33,640 --> 01:14:36,160
Speaker 14: have to read them, you know, when we're not driving

1421
01:14:36,240 --> 01:14:38,880
Speaker 14: and when we're not distracted and we can absorb. And

1422
01:14:39,280 --> 01:14:41,160
Speaker 14: the first one is a book called The Psychology of

1423
01:14:41,240 --> 01:14:45,200
Speaker 14: Money by a guy called Morgan Haussel. He's probably the

1424
01:14:45,760 --> 01:14:48,080
Speaker 14: best money writer I've ever come across. And and so

1425
01:14:48,320 --> 01:14:50,479
Speaker 14: you know, unfortunately he's an American, but other than that,

1426
01:14:50,560 --> 01:14:53,280
Speaker 14: he's a very good guy. Uh And and that book

1427
01:14:53,360 --> 01:14:56,559
Speaker 14: I think helps us understand ourselves and how we build

1428
01:14:56,640 --> 01:15:01,000
Speaker 14: up our financial knowledge. And then there is the next

1429
01:15:01,040 --> 01:15:04,120
Speaker 14: book is and it got to read read word in

1430
01:15:04,160 --> 01:15:05,720
Speaker 14: the title which I'm not going to say, but it's

1431
01:15:06,280 --> 01:15:11,080
Speaker 14: Money like a grown up and that's written by Sam

1432
01:15:11,200 --> 01:15:14,400
Speaker 14: Beck Passenger, and I think for me, that's really detailed book,

1433
01:15:14,479 --> 01:15:16,599
Speaker 14: you know, to help you kind of full of framework

1434
01:15:16,680 --> 01:15:19,720
Speaker 14: for where you're going. So those would be my three

1435
01:15:19,760 --> 01:15:22,560
Speaker 14: tips to people to build up their knowledge. And for

1436
01:15:22,640 --> 01:15:25,760
Speaker 14: someone like Tim, you know, take time, give yourself a goal,

1437
01:15:25,960 --> 01:15:28,080
Speaker 14: I'm going to listen to The Money Show once a

1438
01:15:28,160 --> 01:15:30,880
Speaker 14: week or you know, every day if you can, and

1439
01:15:31,240 --> 01:15:34,120
Speaker 14: at least get the Personal Finance a segment going. But

1440
01:15:34,479 --> 01:15:36,880
Speaker 14: then give yourself the chance to read those two books

1441
01:15:37,040 --> 01:15:39,439
Speaker 14: over the year, and you'll find your knowledge starts to

1442
01:15:39,520 --> 01:15:41,080
Speaker 14: build and compound over time.

1443
01:15:42,400 --> 01:15:44,360
Speaker 3: I mean, and that's really the important thing is suddenly

1444
01:15:44,400 --> 01:15:47,360
Speaker 3: you find yourself. I've found just in the last sort

1445
01:15:47,360 --> 01:15:49,240
Speaker 3: of eighteen months, suddenly I know a lot more than

1446
01:15:49,280 --> 01:15:52,000
Speaker 3: I used to. We were talking about some of the

1447
01:15:52,040 --> 01:15:54,000
Speaker 3: bad habits, and one of them is subscription creep. And

1448
01:15:54,080 --> 01:15:56,240
Speaker 3: I do this from time to time, go through your

1449
01:15:56,280 --> 01:15:59,479
Speaker 3: credit card and your normal account and just see what

1450
01:15:59,600 --> 01:16:03,240
Speaker 3: you're act she subscribe to and you can astonish yourself.

1451
01:16:04,600 --> 01:16:06,880
Speaker 14: And and you know, we see it on two things

1452
01:16:06,920 --> 01:16:10,240
Speaker 14: as well as on our on our apps. You know,

1453
01:16:10,320 --> 01:16:13,160
Speaker 14: the number of apps that we buy. You know, you'll

1454
01:16:13,200 --> 01:16:15,519
Speaker 14: be very surprised where through a year you might decide,

1455
01:16:15,600 --> 01:16:18,800
Speaker 14: I'm buying this you know, this podcast app, or I'm

1456
01:16:18,800 --> 01:16:20,840
Speaker 14: buying this book app. And and you you know, you

1457
01:16:21,400 --> 01:16:23,800
Speaker 14: start with all these good intentions and you get to

1458
01:16:23,880 --> 01:16:25,320
Speaker 14: the end of the y and you look at what

1459
01:16:25,439 --> 01:16:28,400
Speaker 14: you've actually done, and you haven't read a single book online,

1460
01:16:28,439 --> 01:16:31,160
Speaker 14: et cetera. And and so go through all of those

1461
01:16:31,200 --> 01:16:34,519
Speaker 14: subscriptions and and cancel the things you haven't used for

1462
01:16:34,840 --> 01:16:36,840
Speaker 14: for for the year, or you know, for the last

1463
01:16:36,880 --> 01:16:38,880
Speaker 14: three months of the year, if if, if nothing else,

1464
01:16:39,280 --> 01:16:41,320
Speaker 14: and and just make sure that you're not paying for

1465
01:16:41,439 --> 01:16:44,320
Speaker 14: things that you've forgotten about. And and it's always surprising

1466
01:16:44,400 --> 01:16:46,840
Speaker 14: I'd do it. I try and do it it, you know,

1467
01:16:47,000 --> 01:16:49,400
Speaker 14: in the on the December holidays, and I find, you know,

1468
01:16:49,520 --> 01:16:52,479
Speaker 14: two or three subscriptions, you know, or apps that I've

1469
01:16:52,680 --> 01:16:54,880
Speaker 14: got that I can't even remember exactly why I did it,

1470
01:16:54,960 --> 01:16:56,640
Speaker 14: you know, And it was obviously a good idea at

1471
01:16:56,680 --> 01:16:59,280
Speaker 14: the time. And and so cancel those And that ends

1472
01:16:59,360 --> 01:17:01,280
Speaker 14: up being a few hundred or a few thousand around

1473
01:17:01,320 --> 01:17:03,760
Speaker 14: a year that you save yourself. And then you know,

1474
01:17:04,000 --> 01:17:06,880
Speaker 14: I'm going to add to that is then redirect that

1475
01:17:07,080 --> 01:17:10,080
Speaker 14: money to your savings straight away. You're if you're worth

1476
01:17:10,120 --> 01:17:11,960
Speaker 14: spending fifty bucks a month on an app that you

1477
01:17:12,040 --> 01:17:14,160
Speaker 14: no longer need, send that into savings.

1478
01:17:15,400 --> 01:17:17,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, and do it, I mean straight away. It suddenly

1479
01:17:17,240 --> 01:17:20,320
Speaker 3: makes obvious sense. And the I'll sort it out later, habit.

1480
01:17:20,439 --> 01:17:22,240
Speaker 3: Because there are quite a few things that build up

1481
01:17:22,280 --> 01:17:24,960
Speaker 3: over time, you just never get to We.

1482
01:17:25,320 --> 01:17:27,479
Speaker 14: Should be, as a matter of course, doing things like

1483
01:17:27,600 --> 01:17:29,760
Speaker 14: reviewing our short term insurance once a year. You know,

1484
01:17:30,240 --> 01:17:32,599
Speaker 14: do we still have that laptop that we were insuring

1485
01:17:32,680 --> 01:17:34,639
Speaker 14: three years ago? And you know, do you still want

1486
01:17:34,680 --> 01:17:37,160
Speaker 14: to ensure whatever it is, the watch or the phone

1487
01:17:37,240 --> 01:17:40,439
Speaker 14: or whatever that that item is, And so review your

1488
01:17:40,479 --> 01:17:43,759
Speaker 14: insurance now take an opportunity you might save yourself some money.

1489
01:17:44,240 --> 01:17:46,160
Speaker 14: And then I would add to that things like your will.

1490
01:17:46,360 --> 01:17:48,240
Speaker 14: When when last did you check your will? And this

1491
01:17:48,400 --> 01:17:51,560
Speaker 14: is a good time to do it. And then you

1492
01:17:51,640 --> 01:17:54,360
Speaker 14: know your your investments if you if you haven't updated

1493
01:17:54,439 --> 01:17:57,360
Speaker 14: your retirement and nuity contributions, for example, and you're still

1494
01:17:57,400 --> 01:18:00,320
Speaker 14: paying five hundred bucks a month like you were five

1495
01:18:00,400 --> 01:18:02,880
Speaker 14: years ago, well you know, if your salary's gone up,

1496
01:18:02,920 --> 01:18:05,679
Speaker 14: you should be paying more. So I would say, choose

1497
01:18:05,800 --> 01:18:08,479
Speaker 14: one thing again, don't give yourself a whole laundry list

1498
01:18:08,560 --> 01:18:10,160
Speaker 14: of things you've got to do, but choose one of

1499
01:18:10,240 --> 01:18:13,880
Speaker 14: them and just accomplish that one thing this week. Just

1500
01:18:13,960 --> 01:18:17,360
Speaker 14: get it done. And it's amazing how those accomplishments will

1501
01:18:17,360 --> 01:18:18,719
Speaker 14: start to grow on themselves.

1502
01:18:19,760 --> 01:18:21,760
Speaker 3: Is that true about longer term habits as well? If

1503
01:18:21,840 --> 01:18:26,240
Speaker 3: you sort of reassess yourself and create one new habit

1504
01:18:27,160 --> 01:18:30,920
Speaker 3: that would become almost I suppose a keystone, one change.

1505
01:18:31,200 --> 01:18:33,320
Speaker 3: A progress in one sector can lead to progress in.

1506
01:18:33,320 --> 01:18:36,640
Speaker 14: Others, exactly right. So we take a step in the

1507
01:18:36,720 --> 01:18:40,280
Speaker 14: right direction, and we start to feel good about ourselves,

1508
01:18:40,320 --> 01:18:42,240
Speaker 14: and we look around and we go, well, hang on,

1509
01:18:42,360 --> 01:18:44,920
Speaker 14: you know I've done this well. And actually it wasn't

1510
01:18:45,000 --> 01:18:48,519
Speaker 14: such a big deal. Wasn't as as fearsome as I

1511
01:18:48,600 --> 01:18:51,120
Speaker 14: thought it was, So let me try another one. And

1512
01:18:51,560 --> 01:18:54,000
Speaker 14: so you start to build layer upon layer upon layer,

1513
01:18:54,439 --> 01:18:57,760
Speaker 14: and eventually you realize life's going in the right direction again,

1514
01:18:58,439 --> 01:19:01,120
Speaker 14: and it wasn't such a big issue. But if you've

1515
01:19:01,160 --> 01:19:04,360
Speaker 14: given yourself that massive goal at the start, you go nowhere.

1516
01:19:04,560 --> 01:19:07,479
Speaker 14: So I think the way we change our lives financially

1517
01:19:07,680 --> 01:19:10,000
Speaker 14: is we do it one habit at a time, and

1518
01:19:10,200 --> 01:19:13,479
Speaker 14: one small, attainable habit, not a big goal. We don't

1519
01:19:13,520 --> 01:19:15,920
Speaker 14: get to climb Everest by starting at the bottom and

1520
01:19:16,000 --> 01:19:18,400
Speaker 14: jumping to the top. We do it one step after

1521
01:19:18,520 --> 01:19:20,519
Speaker 14: boring step to get in the right direction.

1522
01:19:21,720 --> 01:19:25,000
Speaker 3: All about momentum, isn't it. So often these things are Warren,

1523
01:19:25,040 --> 01:19:27,040
Speaker 3: thank you very much. Indeed you're as optimistic for twenty

1524
01:19:27,080 --> 01:19:30,479
Speaker 3: twenty six, as everyone else I am.

1525
01:19:30,600 --> 01:19:33,800
Speaker 14: I mean, I'm always going to start by saying, you know,

1526
01:19:33,920 --> 01:19:37,320
Speaker 14: all of my predictions are pretty useless, especially about sport

1527
01:19:37,600 --> 01:19:40,559
Speaker 14: and the direction of markets. But I think we've got

1528
01:19:40,560 --> 01:19:42,519
Speaker 14: a lot going for us this year. If interest rates

1529
01:19:42,640 --> 01:19:45,720
Speaker 14: keep going down, which I suspect they will, now that

1530
01:19:45,800 --> 01:19:48,800
Speaker 14: the oil price is going down as well, and if

1531
01:19:48,840 --> 01:19:51,360
Speaker 14: that carries on, I think we're on a good trajectory.

1532
01:19:52,600 --> 01:19:55,400
Speaker 3: Warren Ingram, thanks very much. Indeed a co founder and

1533
01:19:55,439 --> 01:19:59,439
Speaker 3: a certified financial planner at Galileo Capital with personal Finance.

1534
01:19:59,479 --> 01:20:01,240
Speaker 3: What was the name with that podcast you mentioned