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Speaker 1: You're with Clement Manyaatela seven two A right eleven minutes

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Speaker 1: now after ten o'clock.

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Speaker 2: So, as you have seen overnight, we saw Iran announcing

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Speaker 2: that the Assembly of experts in that country have now

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Speaker 2: elected said Mushtaba Khamene as the new Supreme Leader of

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Speaker 2: the Islamic Republic of Iran, which indicates that the headliners

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Speaker 2: are still very much in charge. I mean, this is

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Speaker 2: the sun of their assassinated Supreme leader, Ayatollah Kamene Ali Kamene.

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Speaker 2: So David Smith is the Washington bureau chief for the

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Speaker 2: Guided newspaper in America. I thought we should bring him

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Speaker 2: so we can understand how the Trump administration is responding

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Speaker 2: to this and if at all it changes the US's

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Speaker 2: strategy in this war.

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Speaker 3: David, thank you so much for making time for us.

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Speaker 3: Good morning.

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Speaker 4: Thanks great to be here.

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Speaker 1: So let's start with the latest that came out of Iran.

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Speaker 1: Sayid Kameny has now been elected as the new Supreme

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Speaker 1: Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. How has the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration, if at all, responded to this.

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Speaker 3: Then what do we know about this new leader?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think Trump is not impressed by this, even

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Speaker 5: before how Many had been announced as the new leader,

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Speaker 5: Trump had acknowledged he was the most likely and said

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Speaker 5: he considered how Many an unacceptable choice, and also said

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Speaker 5: Iran's next supreme leader is not going to last long

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Speaker 5: if it did not get Trump's own approval first. And indeed,

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Speaker 5: I think the general view from the White House will

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Speaker 5: be that how Many, for his reasons, just represents too

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Speaker 5: much continuity from his father. He's a fellow hard and

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Speaker 5: Trump has been adamant that he wants to say in

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Speaker 5: who takes over in Iran. I think whatever the facts are,

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Speaker 5: Trump is going to want that sense of ownership that

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Speaker 5: he kind of steered the direction of the country. And

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Speaker 5: of course we've already got an example of that with Venezuela,

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Speaker 5: where the leader, Nicholas Baduro was captured and is facing

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Speaker 5: trial and his deputy basically struck a deal with Trump

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Speaker 5: and now relations there are being normalized. I think Trump

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Speaker 5: believes he's on a winning streak and a similar model

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Speaker 5: can apply in Iran, but this latest announcement suggests that

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Speaker 5: it's not going to go so easily for him, and

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Speaker 5: he basically the first time since nineteen seventy nine and

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Speaker 5: the Islamic resolution revelue that we've seen a transition like

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Speaker 5: this from father to son.

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Speaker 4: And you know, I don't know a great deal about

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Speaker 4: how many from you.

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Speaker 5: He's fifty six years old, born in a city called Mashad.

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Speaker 5: He studied theology in very seminaries and took part in

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Speaker 5: the final stages of the Iran Iraq war. I don't

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Speaker 5: think he ever necessarily expected to be taking over a

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Speaker 5: supreme leader, but of course non expected Donald Trump to

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Speaker 5: intervene in such a way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but been it would also be naive for the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration to think that just taking out the Supreme

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Speaker 1: leader would somehow destabilize the leadership in the Islamic Republic,

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Speaker 1: because it was a succession planned for sure. I mean

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Speaker 1: I had told a KAMENI it was what eighty six

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Speaker 1: years old.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, clearly he was not going to last forever. And

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Speaker 5: they have replaced one eye Tolla before and the regime

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Speaker 5: has dug in for decades. And yeah, I'm sure did

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Speaker 5: have some kind of plan and is not going to

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Speaker 5: go quietly. And I think again, because of some past

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Speaker 5: military successes, Trump perhaps assumed this is going to be

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Speaker 5: easier than it is whether, of course, and someone like Venezuela.

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Speaker 5: Actually it was not regime regimee g regime regime change.

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Speaker 5: It was just a decapitation, if you like, of the

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Speaker 5: the top person, and the regime regimes stayed in place,

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Speaker 5: and that may be what happens in Iran eventually.

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Speaker 4: I am.

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Speaker 5: You know, a commentator here was just saying recently, if

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Speaker 5: the Ranian regime can hold on, that's what represents victory

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Speaker 5: for them. They just have to weather this storm, and

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Speaker 5: that will actually have a defeat for the US and

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Speaker 5: Israel if they stay in tact.

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Speaker 4: And Trump has not thought this through.

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Speaker 5: And you know, in his opening remarks when they announced

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Speaker 5: this attack, of course he was suggesting that the Iranian

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Speaker 5: people might rise up and over further regime.

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Speaker 4: But that's of.

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Speaker 5: Course a lot easier to say from his residence in

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Speaker 5: Florida than if you're on the ground in Tehran.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is the clarity I mean in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 1: Now where you are around what the strategy of the

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Speaker 1: US is, because, as you say in the beginning, the

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Speaker 1: justifications were so different from the different political leaders as

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Speaker 1: to why America decided to join in these attacks. It

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Speaker 1: is the strategy now, especially given that what America was

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Speaker 1: hoping for has actually not transpired. People have not really

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Speaker 1: risen up in their millions to call for regime change,

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Speaker 1: and that's what the Trump and administration was banking on.

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Speaker 5: No, still pretty unclear, and certainly Trump's critics in the

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Speaker 5: US would argue he went into this without any kind

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Speaker 5: of strategy and still doesn't have one. Now, we have

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Speaker 5: over the past week heard this shifting sess of explanations

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Speaker 5: from the President and others. Whether it's about stopping around

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Speaker 5: getting a nuclear weapon or ballistic missiles, whether it's about

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Speaker 5: overthrowing the regime for the sake of the people, or

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Speaker 5: containing proxy groups, or a little bit of all of

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Speaker 5: the above. And Trump keeps getting these off the cuff

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Speaker 5: phone interviews to reporters who call him, and shifting the

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Speaker 5: ground each time. It feels very improvisational and not thought through.

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Speaker 5: The White House has indicated maybe this's all gone for

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Speaker 5: four to six weeks, but but maybe longer. And yeah,

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Speaker 5: and I think no one in the US is entirely

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Speaker 5: sure what Trump Trump's mid to long term plan here is.

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Speaker 4: You know, will he.

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Speaker 5: Even consider sending in ground troops at some point that

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Speaker 5: there's been reports of maybe a small force to try

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Speaker 5: and take the enriched uranium that could be used for

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Speaker 5: a nuclear weapon that you know, will there be a

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Speaker 5: followed through in terms of installing a new government? That

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Speaker 5: seems very ambiguous right now.

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Speaker 3: And how about Americans.

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Speaker 1: I know the number of polls that have been done

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Speaker 1: by different groups, different news agencies. What are we learning

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Speaker 1: though about how Americans feel about this war?

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Speaker 4: Most are skeptical.

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Speaker 5: Opinion polls suggests that a majority of Americans oppose this war.

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Speaker 5: They don't really understand it, they don't see it as necessary.

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Speaker 5: Of course, what's difficult for the Trump administration a couple

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Speaker 5: of things is that the price of oil has just

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Speaker 5: gone above one hundred dollars a barrel, so that could

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Speaker 5: hurt Americans at the petrol pump. I mean, America has

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Speaker 5: become more energy independent in recent years, so they can

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Speaker 5: insulate themselves a bit, but it could still take a toll.

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Speaker 5: And on Saturday, we saw the first ceremony dignified transfer

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Speaker 5: of the remains of six US service men and women

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Speaker 5: who've been killed at a base in Kuwait. Since then,

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Speaker 5: a seventh death has been announced. And if that death

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Speaker 5: toll rises, then I think again many Americans will question

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Speaker 5: why is this happening? You have many Democrats speaking out

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Speaker 5: against it, and then even of course within Donald Trump's

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Speaker 5: own support based as the America First wing who elected

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Speaker 5: him because he promised to keep the US out of

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Speaker 5: foreign wars, no more adventures like Afghanistan or Iraq, and

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Speaker 5: at least some of them are accusing Trump of breaking

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Speaker 5: that promise.

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Speaker 4: And you know here he is just like George W.

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Speaker 5: Bush in Iraq and all the rest, just once again

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Speaker 5: spending huge amounts of money and putting lives at risk

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Speaker 5: for a foreign adventure they don't quite understand.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what about the Kiddish forces that it appears the

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Speaker 1: CIA has even been funding, according to reports coming out

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Speaker 1: of the US, even months before this war. Is that

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Speaker 1: really the strategy of the US And what are the

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Speaker 1: likely consequences of that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I mean, there's certainly been some reporting that the US

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Speaker 5: might consider backing Kurdish forces in Iraq to cross the

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Speaker 5: border into Iran and maybe take part in fighting, maybe

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Speaker 5: try to overthrow the regime. A long standing relationship between

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Speaker 5: the Americans and the Curds which has often resulted in

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Speaker 5: America turnning it back on the Curds and not following

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Speaker 5: through you know, just thinking of Gerald Ford in seventy

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Speaker 5: five and Ronald Reagan in eighty eight and so on.

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Speaker 5: So it's been a difficult relationship. I think the nightmare

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Speaker 5: scenario some people foresee is if the US starts backing

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Speaker 5: and arming certain groups like that, it could really descend

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Speaker 5: into some sort of chaotic civil war and we might

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Speaker 5: see a repeat of what happened in Iraq with various

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Speaker 5: militia groups fighting each other, or Libya more recently. However,

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Speaker 5: on Saturday, I think it was Trump said he's not

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Speaker 5: considering this at the moment. He said, the war is

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Speaker 5: complicated enough as it is, and we don't want to

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Speaker 5: make it more so. So right now, that just seems

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Speaker 5: to be a sort of a report and a rumor

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Speaker 5: and a speculation rather than something that's definitely happening.

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Speaker 4: But I guess watch this space.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And then in terms of intensifying the missiles, intensifying the attacks,

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Speaker 1: what have we seen from the US side, Because from

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Speaker 1: late last week already Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State

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Speaker 1: as well, except was indicating that the attacks are now

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Speaker 1: going to intensify, and years, you know, over the last

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Speaker 1: couple of days, we've seen some you know oil, you know,

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Speaker 1: infrastructure in Iran being targeted.

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Speaker 3: But is that what we have seen?

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Speaker 1: Have we've seen the intensity or does it look like

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Speaker 1: the US is still strategizing as to how to move

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Speaker 1: forward here?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it seems to have been pretty intense last couple

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Speaker 5: of days, including Yeah, there's oil facilities in Iran, quite

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Speaker 5: apocalyptic explosions. You've also got, of course, Israel carrying out

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Speaker 5: attacks in his Bala in Lebanon reports there of nearly

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Speaker 5: four hundred people dead. And you mentioned the Defense Secretary

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Speaker 5: Pete Hegserth. I think he alarms many people just with

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Speaker 5: his fiery, bombastic rhetoric. Is the way he seems to

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Speaker 5: revel in this violence, and he you know this awesome

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Speaker 5: fire power of US military, and you know, he talks

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Speaker 5: a little bit like a bully about it's not a

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Speaker 5: fair fight and around his down and we're going to

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Speaker 5: beat them further when they're down. Does appear to be

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Speaker 5: just this very hyper masculine warmongering. They've released videos which

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Speaker 5: intersperse real war footage with Hollywood movies or video games.

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Speaker 5: That is setting off a lot of alarm bells in

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Speaker 5: terms of you. Critics have always said the US is

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Speaker 5: this this global bully, this aggressor, and now they're really

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Speaker 5: leaning into that, and so I suspect, you know, there

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Speaker 5: could be more display of firepower to come. And you hear,

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Speaker 5: you know, living here in the US in Washington, you

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Speaker 5: hear very little discussion of the cost of that, especially

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Speaker 5: in terms of civilian casualties. And we've got that example

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Speaker 5: of the school in Tehran where more than one hundred

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Speaker 5: and seventy people died, including many students, and you know,

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Speaker 5: New York Times and others have reported that was probably

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Speaker 5: a US military military strike, and Donald Trump, Donald Trump

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Speaker 5: has flat denied that, yeah, even though.

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Speaker 1: Though the Trump but administration did say that the investigation

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Speaker 1: is still underway to determine if it was the US

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Speaker 1: forces that bomb that That girl's.

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Speaker 4: Cool, that's right.

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Speaker 5: And there was an awkward moment on Air Force one

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Speaker 5: on Saturday when Trump just flatly denied it was the

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Speaker 5: US involved and suggested it might have been the Iranians

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Speaker 5: misfiring somehow, whereas Pete Hexath, who was standing mixed to

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Speaker 5: Trump on Air Force one, couldn't quite bring himself to

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Speaker 5: say that and just said, you know, an investigation is ongoing,

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Speaker 5: certainly right now, you know, an analysis by the New

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Speaker 5: York Times and other media reports, it's not looking good

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Speaker 5: for the US. It was like they well have been

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Speaker 5: then involved. And of course, you know, what we've learned

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Speaker 5: from history in Iraq and elsewhere is that when a

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Speaker 5: major power inflicts these kind of civilian casualties, it shows

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Speaker 5: the seeds of years, if not decades, of resentment and

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Speaker 5: hostage and they pay the price.

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Speaker 1: How much capacity do you think the president of the

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Speaker 1: US still have for this war and even appetite, because

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Speaker 1: when you look at the Magabays, I mean, it's been

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Speaker 1: interesting listening and watching people like Megan Caley, Tucker Carlson,

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Speaker 1: Kendice Owens, and many others who supported Trump and still

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Speaker 1: declare themselves as Trump supporters, who are now saying this

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Speaker 1: decision to go to war is definitely surprising and it's

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Speaker 1: not necessarily what they voted Trump or does that mean

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Speaker 1: anything at all? How much influence do some of these

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Speaker 1: podcasters even have, I mean within the magabase.

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Speaker 5: Well, when he's been asked about this, Trump says they're

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Speaker 5: not maga. You know, I am the true mega as

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Speaker 5: in making America great again, and often has been that

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Speaker 5: strain that all of these policies. It's such a culture personality.

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Speaker 5: It's just kind of whatever Trump says, then people will

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Speaker 5: go along with that. But yeah, sure, I mean, there

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Speaker 5: are certainly some cracks showing in the support, and there's

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Speaker 5: people like Megan Kelly and Tacker Carlson questioning this as

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Speaker 5: really a betrayal of what Trump promised in terms of America.

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Speaker 4: First, and.

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Speaker 5: You know, Trump had talked a lot about what a

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Speaker 5: disaster the Iraq War was, and he criticized George W.

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Speaker 5: Bush and promise that on his watch, the US would

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Speaker 5: never repeat that and even accused his election opponent, Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 4: Had been the one who would start World War three.

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Speaker 5: And you know that's under her that your children will

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Speaker 5: be sent off to war. And now here he is

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Speaker 5: waging this very unpredictable and spreading conflict term in the

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Speaker 5: Middle East. All of that said, there are some MYGA

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Speaker 5: supporters who are just as loud in supporting him. I

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Speaker 5: think a prettcial distinction they make is that he is not,

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Speaker 5: at least so far offending American boots on the ground.

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Speaker 5: It's not like Iraq with thousands of US troops there.

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Speaker 5: It's been mostly wayed from the air display aerial power

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Speaker 5: and like Venezuela, like these other adventures. You know, Trump

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Speaker 5: thinks he's found a formula to really minimize US casualties

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Speaker 5: and operate these wars almost remotely.

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Speaker 4: So I think that would be crossing the Ruby Calm.

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Speaker 5: That would be really the red line for his supporters.

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Speaker 5: If you saw thousands of troops actually on the ground

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Speaker 5: in Iran, that then then he would have a major

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Speaker 5: revolt on his hands. But as it is, it's it's

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Speaker 5: more or less contained, and I think at least some

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Speaker 5: of them do.

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Speaker 4: Kind of gasp and.

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Speaker 5: Hold their breath and are amazed by this kind of

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Speaker 5: spectacle of US military firepower and all the match o

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Speaker 5: posturing and the glossy videos around that.

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Speaker 3: Mmm.

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Speaker 1: You've been reporting about these things for a while now, David,

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Speaker 1: you've been watching various administrations in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 3: How do you think this ends? What?

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Speaker 1: What are the what are the most likelihoods of how

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Speaker 1: this ends?

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Speaker 3: In your view?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a great question.

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Speaker 5: And one thing we've learned from the Trump presidency is

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Speaker 5: it's always a dangerous game to make any predictions. I

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Speaker 5: think the public appetite will wear out and Trump himself.

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Speaker 4: Will lose patience, he did claim the other day.

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Speaker 5: You know, I don't get bored if this is not boring,

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Speaker 5: you know, denying that he would get bored of this.

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Speaker 4: But I suspect he will at some point, and.

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Speaker 5: The US military will withdraw, you know, without a major

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Speaker 5: commitment of troops on the ground. But what they leave

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Speaker 5: in their wake is very hard to predict. I mean,

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Speaker 5: how much damage can they inflict in forces weeks? As ever,

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Speaker 5: Trump will try to claim victory and present it as

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Speaker 5: a major change, even if the regime is still in place,

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Speaker 5: even if Hamone's son is still the supreme leader. He

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Speaker 5: will say, look, Iran's military has been totally devastated. It

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Speaker 5: can no longer influence the region as it as it

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Speaker 5: once did.

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Speaker 4: I think the one thing we do know is that,

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Speaker 4: unlike George W.

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Speaker 5: Bush, you know, Trump will not spend time and money

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Speaker 5: trying to impose a democracy or rebuild the nation, because

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Speaker 5: we have learned he doesn't care that much about democracy,

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Speaker 5: and so in a strange kind of way, that makes

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Speaker 5: life easier for him.

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Speaker 3: M M.

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Speaker 1: David Smith, thank you so much for your insights life

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Speaker 1: to us from Washington. D C Here is a Washington

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Speaker 1: brewerchief for The Guardian,