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Speaker 1: And now The Money Show with Stephen Criddis on seven

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Speaker 1: oh two.

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Speaker 2: Let's walk little. The Money Show with Stephen Crutis is

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Speaker 2: brought to you by Abscess cib Discover the latest trends

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Speaker 2: shaping digital assets across Africa. Download the Africa Digital Assets

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Speaker 2: Insights twenty twenty five. Good evening, eight minutes after six.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the program. I'm Stephen Critis. I was reading

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Speaker 2: for twenty four today and Carol Payton's piece about the

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Speaker 2: huge amount of money we're putting into infrastructure, governments putting

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Speaker 2: into the national grid, and we all know this is

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Speaker 2: the sort of next big problem. We seem to have

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Speaker 2: solved generation for now, no load jetting, but the national

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Speaker 2: grid is the next big problem. To do that, you

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Speaker 2: do need international help. I don't think there's any doubt

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Speaker 2: you need people with lots of expertise, people who who've

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Speaker 2: done it before. And we'll hear from Carol in a

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Speaker 2: few moments, we'll hear from one of the other role

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Speaker 2: players in this. But it does appear that essentially people

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Speaker 2: who are working in this field will not necessarily need

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Speaker 2: to have experience if they're to be partner. In other words,

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Speaker 2: anyone who qualifies to be a BEE partner, could actually

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Speaker 2: be one of the partners for these international firms with

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Speaker 2: no experience in the field. And Kashiff Wickham is the

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Speaker 2: CEO of one company that you would think would actually

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Speaker 2: be one of the obvious partners because they do have experience.

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Speaker 2: We'll hear his view in just a moment. He's the

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Speaker 2: as I say, the CEO of one of these companies.

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Speaker 2: But he's also the president of the Progressive Professionals Forum.

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Speaker 2: So very interesting. A lot more confidence that seems flying around,

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Speaker 2: and there's been suggestions that some of the good news

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Speaker 2: we've seen at the very top level of the economy

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Speaker 2: may be filtering down. Well. A new confidence survey coming

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Speaker 2: out from the Bureau of Economic Research and FNB, supermandlam

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Speaker 2: quanazis that senior economis to F and B will be

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Speaker 2: on your radio in about ten minutes from now, and

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Speaker 2: we'll also talk about policy uncertainty. So the Policy Uncertainty

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Speaker 2: Index that comes from Northwest University's Business School that's down

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Speaker 2: down is a good thing when it comes to policy uncertainty.

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Speaker 2: So looking for or to that conversation, Professor Raymond Parsons

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Speaker 2: there and I have to tell you or slightly outraged

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Speaker 2: when I saw the news for the first time that

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Speaker 2: Botswana has reinstated it's banned on South African vegetables. I

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Speaker 2: mean it was finally sort of culed earlier. It was

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Speaker 2: earlier in the year, late last year, but now it's back.

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Speaker 2: Makes no sense to me. Try and get an understanding

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Speaker 2: of what our vegetables do to Botswana farmers. But still

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Speaker 2: a very strange story. You'll speak to and Delisa Clabor

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Speaker 2: about that in a little while as well. Don't forget

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Speaker 2: Warren Ingram later and we'll also speak to Ibangakawe later

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Speaker 2: as well. He's been looking at the issue and as

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Speaker 2: you know, he's at the International Trade Administration Commission. He

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Speaker 2: is the chief commissioner there. But he's been looking at

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Speaker 2: the issue of intervention in steel markets and it does

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Speaker 2: seem to be something that's happening around the world. I

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Speaker 2: don't know, how would you respond to Botswana. I suppose

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Speaker 2: it would have to be my question. You keep banning

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Speaker 2: the sale of our the importation of vegetables, and you

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Speaker 2: do kind of mean our vegel. So what do we do?

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Speaker 2: Do we ignore them? Do we sort of knock on

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Speaker 2: their door and say way, Why are you doing it?

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Speaker 2: Do you think it would be good neighborliness to tell

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Speaker 2: us in advance? You know, in a month's time we're

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Speaker 2: going to do this. And I don't get the feeling

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Speaker 2: that they did. But your thoughts, how do we respond

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Speaker 2: to Botswana? Double one double A three oh seven O

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Speaker 2: two two one four four six O five sixty seven

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Speaker 2: in your voice notes please now seven two seven oh

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Speaker 2: two one seven oh two.

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Speaker 1: The Lonely Show with Stephen krudis live on ninety two

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Speaker 1: point seven and one O six FM, streaming on the

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Speaker 1: Prime Media.

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Speaker 3: Plus NAP and DStv channel eight five six.

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Speaker 2: Well an important piece in Form twenty four today by

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Speaker 2: Carol Payton explaining how the four hundred billion rand investment

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Speaker 2: program to build the national grid or electricity transmission lines,

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Speaker 2: we'll see international firms pairing up with BEE partners. The

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Speaker 2: BEE partners will not need to have any technical expertise.

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Speaker 2: In other words, an international company can be part of

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Speaker 2: a contract to build our electricity network using a BE

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Speaker 2: partner that is not currently involved in electricity at all.

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Speaker 2: And it would seem that government has refused so far

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Speaker 2: to use the situation to build the capacity to build

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Speaker 2: the lines ourselves. To put it another way, instead of

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Speaker 2: using b companies that exist with experience and then using

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Speaker 2: this to give those companies that capacity, then that capacity

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Speaker 2: would remain in the country afterwards. Government is doing this

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Speaker 2: in a completely different way. Well, we'll hear from Carol

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Speaker 2: Payton himself in just a moment, but first let's hear

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Speaker 2: from one of the firms that is fifty one percent

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Speaker 2: black owned and has experience in the sect. In a

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Speaker 2: company that maybe would be sort of near the front

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Speaker 2: of the queue to be part of this is called

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Speaker 2: a Denco Construction. Its CEO is kashef Wickan. As it happens,

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Speaker 2: he's also the chair of the Progressive Professionals forma body

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Speaker 2: which primarily supports the policies of the anc KA chief.

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Speaker 2: Good evening, So, I presume you were expecting to benefit

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Speaker 2: from this build program. You have experience, you'd be in

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Speaker 2: the prime position to work with an international companyany because

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Speaker 2: of that. Now they don't need a company with experience.

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Speaker 2: Where does that leave you?

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Speaker 4: Good evening, Steven, and thank you for having us. Look,

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Speaker 4: I always like to speak on the off of the

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Speaker 4: count large as opposed to of my own personal self

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Speaker 4: interest and narrow interests. The ITP program provided a perfect opportunity,

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Speaker 4: or provides a perfect opportunity for the state in what

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Speaker 4: is probably one of the largest procurement exercises in a while,

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Speaker 4: to push forward the statugy and objective of localization, combat

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Speaker 4: in unemployment and getting South African companies South African owned

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Speaker 4: companies internationally. Really and so we believe that with the

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Speaker 4: art off to the request for qualification, such an opportunity

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Speaker 4: was lost. And we are hoping that this will be

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Speaker 4: rectified in BED window two or even closer in the

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Speaker 4: requestful proposal, which or in the shortest which will be

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Speaker 4: published they say on the tenth of December sometime this week.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so let's put us another way. I appreciate you

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Speaker 2: don't want to talk in very particular terms or specific terms.

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Speaker 2: But if there's a company like yours, there are others

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Speaker 2: like yours that would be paired with an international company

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Speaker 2: and then they would be involved in this build program,

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Speaker 2: would be their partner. What kind of opportunity would that

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Speaker 2: be for a company like that, It would be huge.

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Speaker 4: Because you must understand, Stephen, that that locals are African companies.

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Speaker 4: And when we say local, we speak about contractors, consulting engineers,

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Speaker 4: manufacturers of equipment. They would be almost at the top

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Speaker 4: of the pier in terms of in terms of they

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Speaker 4: would have been the developer owner of these transmission assets

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Speaker 4: for the first time in the trade history. And of

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Speaker 4: course they would be able to keep the susage machine

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Speaker 4: alive as a contractor, design, engineer or manufacturer, but also

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Speaker 4: ultimately being a co owner with an international operator of

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Speaker 4: a transmission asset, similar to what large contractors did in

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Speaker 4: the toe roads or Published plus minus. In fact, that's

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Speaker 4: twenty five years ago. Local So African contractors parted with

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Speaker 4: international operates with experience to manage to roads for a

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Speaker 4: twenty period in the public crowd using the public prov

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Speaker 4: partnership model, similar to what the ITP is invesaging.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so I mean to put it another way, it

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Speaker 2: would create a huge amount of capacity in South African

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Speaker 2: owned firms and who knows what that capacity could be

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Speaker 2: used for. It could even be used to you know,

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Speaker 2: build another you know, to upgrade the grid in one

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Speaker 2: of our neighbors for example. I mean, it could be

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Speaker 2: the start of something pipility.

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Speaker 4: And you know, if one, if one thing's beyond South

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Speaker 4: African music requirements and you just love to it and

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Speaker 4: think twenty years from today or fifty years from today,

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Speaker 4: this opportunity could give rise to a South African company EPC,

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Speaker 4: design engineer or manufacturer to become an international operator and

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Speaker 4: go to another country and provide that international experience in

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Speaker 4: another company country. Similar towards the Chinese, the Spanish, the Asians,

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Speaker 4: the Turks, the Brits, the French.

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Speaker 2: Are wanting to do in this round.

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Speaker 4: So there is a massive opportunity that could be lost

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Speaker 4: if the procurement process is not firm on transformation and

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Speaker 4: Black economic dempartment.

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Speaker 5: And I must ask.

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Speaker 4: Stephen, probably for the first time in our country, is

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Speaker 4: to TIA history. The transformation agenda of the state is

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Speaker 4: to the benefit of sa inc so African Incorporated, which

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Speaker 4: means both majority black owned and white owned companies.

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Speaker 2: But that is to the benefit of the country at large.

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Speaker 4: Because you can't have you can't push for local content,

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Speaker 4: you can't push for using locals African companies itself. But

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Speaker 4: by the way, I'm not promoting automation.

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Speaker 2: In Black and American pound kashef Wickham, thank you very much. Indeed,

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Speaker 2: a CEO of a DNCO Electrical Construction also present of

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Speaker 2: the Progressive Professionals Forum. Well, Carol Payton is the person

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Speaker 2: who wrote this, a writer at large at News twenty four. Carol,

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Speaker 2: Good evening. I mean from what you say, it would

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Speaker 2: seem we're missing quite a big opportunity.

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Speaker 6: Good evening, Stephen, Yes, I think Kaschef Wacom really put

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Speaker 6: it well. You know, it is exactly that. It's exactly

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Speaker 6: these are black empowered companies, companies that are homegrown South

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Speaker 6: Askan companies. They've built themselves up. Here's this opportunity for

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Speaker 6: them to go the extra step, to take the next

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Speaker 6: step up and to become global players on the continent.

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Speaker 6: Because we always talk about how South Africa should be

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Speaker 6: a global player on the continent and that's what we

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Speaker 6: want to see. And here's an opportunity to build back

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Speaker 6: capacity and it's not being taken up. And you know,

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Speaker 6: it really just requires a very small change, because nobody

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Speaker 6: is saying this is not a debate about, you know,

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Speaker 6: we don't want white firms to get more business. This

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Speaker 6: is a debate about, you know, we've got fully empowered,

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Speaker 6: black owned companies that are fully competent, that are building

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Speaker 6: power lines, that are building substations they've been doing it,

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Speaker 6: some of them for one hundred years actually in their

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Speaker 6: former iterations before. They will sort of majority black owned,

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Speaker 6: and they are not gonna. They're not gonna. They're gonna

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Speaker 6: They're not going to get this. They're not going to

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Speaker 6: get this opportunity because politically the opportunity should go to

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Speaker 6: bee holding companies. Now, the thing I think that you

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Speaker 6: didn't explain, and for Shieff didn't explain, is that these

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Speaker 6: global players, so the requirement is they do need to

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Speaker 6: have an empowerment partner, but the empowerment partner doesn't need

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Speaker 6: any expertise. So for them, it's preferable to say, oh, well,

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Speaker 6: it's going to save me a whole lot of helpful

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Speaker 6: if I don't have to do any negotiating about the tressing,

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Speaker 6: the supplying the equipment, and I'll just go in with

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Speaker 6: a bee holding company or finance company and they'll just

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Speaker 6: take forty nine percent shareholding and they'll well, they won't

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Speaker 6: bother me for the duration of the project.

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Speaker 2: Why do you think government is going this route? I mean,

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Speaker 2: I've been scratching my head. You know the area much

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Speaker 2: better than I do. I mean, could it be simpler

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Speaker 2: for international companies. Could that be the benefit? Could there

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Speaker 2: be something else? And I'm afraid Carol, as you know,

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Speaker 2: we live in a cynical time, and all I could

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Speaker 2: think of was cynical explanations.

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Speaker 6: No look for it is actually the only reason to

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Speaker 6: prefer this option, which is, you know, international firm plus

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Speaker 6: black owned entity with no experience versus international company plus

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Speaker 6: black owned entity worth experience. The only reason to do

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Speaker 6: that is for rents seeking purposes. There's no other reason

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Speaker 6: to do that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it would seem that that's the only

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Speaker 2: way to do this. Eryl Payton, thank you very much. Indeed,

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Speaker 2: writer at Larger News to me four the only way

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Speaker 2: to understand it is what I meant to say, because

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Speaker 2: it does seem like that. I think probably after listening

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Speaker 2: to that and after listening to our guests, we do

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Speaker 2: owe the electricity Minister or the ministry whichever a right

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Speaker 2: of reply. We will make some calls tomorrow morning or

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Speaker 2: later tonight perhaps and see if they are available. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if the minister himself might prefer to respond,

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Speaker 2: or if someone from the ministry, but I think there's

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Speaker 2: a lot to look at here. Your thoughts on this

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Speaker 2: seven two seven O two one seven two Stephen is

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Speaker 2: one x at AB Stephen Well confirmation today that as

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Speaker 2: a consumer, you're feeling a little more confident than you

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Speaker 2: were a few months ago, but you're still feeling less

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Speaker 2: confident than over the longer term average. The F and

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Speaker 2: B Bureau for Economic Research Consumer Confidence Index being recorded

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Speaker 2: at negative nine in this quarter, an improvement from the

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Speaker 2: figure of negative thirteen in the quarter before that the

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Speaker 2: third quarter. Supermander and Quan Nazi is the senior economist

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Speaker 2: to death and be Supermander Good evening. We're still not

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Speaker 2: very confident, but why are we feeling more confident than

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Speaker 2: we were?

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Speaker 7: Thank you, David, Good evening to your listeners. Yes, we

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Speaker 7: are still below that negative one average since nineteen ninety four.

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Speaker 7: There were a number of developments, positive developments that contributed

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Speaker 7: to this relatively positive outcome. The first is that we

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Speaker 7: are in an environment where inflation is stable. Food inflation

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Speaker 7: has come down a little bit. You know, from the

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Speaker 7: time of the of the previous savey to the current savey,

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Speaker 7: we've seen fuewel prices going down about forty three cents.

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Speaker 7: If you look at food prices as well, inflation picked

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Speaker 7: it around. It was around that five. It was around

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Speaker 7: five point five percent from the previous savey to around

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Speaker 7: three point nine. Now we've also seen interest rates coming down,

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Speaker 7: you know, so there a lot of these developer positive

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Speaker 7: development and especially for the high income household middle income households,

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Speaker 7: the rent has firmed since the last time, so affordability

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Speaker 7: overall has improved.

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Speaker 2: Quite a bit.

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Speaker 7: And you do see that in how consumers are engaging

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Speaker 7: at the shopping centers.

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Speaker 2: So from what you're saying, the richer you are more confident,

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Speaker 2: you're feeling I imagine we see different feelings of confidence

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Speaker 2: in different parts of the economy, you would.

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Speaker 7: Think, so, Stevin, which is confusing for me at least

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Speaker 7: out of this outcome, because a lot of what I've

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Speaker 7: counted for, you know, a positive budget or doctrict have

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Speaker 7: been upgraded by S and P, so doftrict have been

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Speaker 7: removed from the prey list. That is the stuff that

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Speaker 7: more of your high income households tend to care more about.

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Speaker 7: But what we saw in the outcome was that in

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Speaker 7: fact the assentiment actually went in the opposite direction. The

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Speaker 7: assentiment is that negative twelve from negative eleven in the

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Speaker 7: previous qulture, which is quite difficult for me to understand

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Speaker 7: why that would be the case. But also context is

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Speaker 7: also is important to you. The save was conducted between

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Speaker 7: the tenth and the twenty first of November, so I

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Speaker 7: presume the latest interest rate cut, which was on the

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Speaker 7: twentieth of the month of November, would not admit that

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Speaker 7: much of an impact.

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Speaker 2: Yere as you say in interest rates are clearly a

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Speaker 2: part of this. Inflation is clearly a part of this

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Speaker 2: general feeling. Is politics a big part of this? I

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Speaker 2: suppose to what it's another way, is consumer confidence tied

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Speaker 2: somehow inextricably to the national coalition? Yes?

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Speaker 7: Yes, no, that is one person. That is one possible

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Speaker 7: better staving. It has been quite volatile this year, not

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Speaker 7: just from a domestic political landscape perspective alone, but also

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Speaker 7: from a global perspective. In feat, if you look at

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Speaker 7: the confidence of your high income households, those again who

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Speaker 7: generally care about such stuff, now they were very much

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Speaker 7: they were much more persimistic at the beginning of the year.

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Speaker 7: Now that is the time when you know there was

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Speaker 7: this a heightened uncertainty around global politics. Now it has

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Speaker 7: improved over time. But I would have expected that given

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Speaker 7: the relative stability we have enjoyed in the last couple

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Speaker 7: of months that it would have supported their sentiment. It

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Speaker 7: wasn't to be the case. Possibly that would be one

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Speaker 7: of the biggest drivers.

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Speaker 2: Things in South Africa are mainly things we can control,

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Speaker 2: but things outside South Africa, things we can't control. I

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Speaker 2: think you know who I'm talking about, Supermandler. How big

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Speaker 2: a factor is that I'm talking specifically about the.

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Speaker 7: US and absolutely absolutely that's possibly one of the biggest slectors,

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Speaker 7: particularly for those eye in households. But out of that,

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Speaker 7: out of that, Steven, there also is a blessing in

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Speaker 7: the sense that you know, with with with the spet

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Speaker 7: between the US and China, the Chinese have had to

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Speaker 7: find alternative markets. So the exportant deflation, we are seeing,

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Speaker 7: you know, bigger and bigger confinements of your household content

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Speaker 7: and your furniture, your your your your electronics, and they

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Speaker 7: are coming at a much more lower price as well,

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Speaker 7: So we're getting all of these goods at the cheaper price.

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Speaker 7: To their end is stronger overall, affordability is improving. That

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Speaker 7: those developments tend to, you know, support sentiment. We do

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Speaker 7: hope that we will see much more of that in

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Speaker 7: the in the next in the next quarter.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's fascinating that because new car inflation I

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Speaker 2: think I saw was at one point six percent at

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Speaker 2: the moment, which means that suddenly there are many people

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Speaker 2: who may now be able to buy a new car

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Speaker 2: for the first time in their lives. I've never bought

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Speaker 2: a new car now that I think about it, But

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Speaker 2: you can buy a new car which you considered unaffordable before,

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Speaker 2: simply because of how the car industry has changed so dramatically.

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Speaker 7: A one hundred percent, one hundred percent and abit evident

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Speaker 7: in the volume of new cars that are that are

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Speaker 7: shooting out their lives at the moment. So you take

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Speaker 7: that cheaper level price, you take lower bottowing car, and

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Speaker 7: you also take the changes in the funding models. Now

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Speaker 7: we can have a debate about whether this is a

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Speaker 7: correct model or not, but you know, it is getting

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Speaker 7: cheaper and cheaper to own a car, and we are

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Speaker 7: seeing consumers taking bigger balloons. We can own cheaper cars,

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Speaker 7: even those that are coming from the est. So because

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Speaker 7: it is getting cheaper and cheaper, hence we are seeing

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Speaker 7: this level of volumes.

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Speaker 2: Of new cars by now cry later. There is a

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Speaker 2: big believe Supermandler, thanks very much, Supermandola and Guanazi is

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Speaker 2: senior economist at F and B. Twenty six minutes after

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Speaker 2: six the Money Show, Ryan Hill is they had a

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Speaker 2: fundamental sales at abs CB Ryan good even good to

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Speaker 2: talk again Togella are four percent today they seem to

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Speaker 2: get higher co volumes going through, but a bit of

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Speaker 2: a warning about the future.

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Speaker 8: Yeah evening, Stephen and good to be here.

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Speaker 5: Look.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, differently, the numbers were well seen, well.

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Speaker 2: Received by the market.

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Speaker 8: You had South African production pretty much a head of guidance.

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Speaker 8: Australia seemed as though it came within expectations, so looking

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Speaker 8: good operationally, but they've got some of course tail winds

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Speaker 8: on the pricing side. Filmal coals now basically run up

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Speaker 8: to the sort of low ninety dollars, but they do

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Speaker 8: have a bit of a headwind in the form of

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Speaker 8: the TZAR at the moment. Having said that, it does

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Speaker 8: sound as though they're continuing to benefit from trans nets

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Speaker 8: improved performance, So it looks as though we might see

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Speaker 8: some bitter volume coming through over time.

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Speaker 2: Well, my amateur account, I think Tim Gaela are the

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Speaker 2: first South African company to complain about a stronger rand.

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Speaker 2: They may not actually be the last if you look

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Speaker 2: at the way things are going.

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Speaker 8: Well indeed, look, I mean it's it's ultimately going to

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Speaker 8: be a function of what happens to the dollar. So

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Speaker 8: it'll be interesting to see how the mix of currency

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Speaker 8: and commodity prices play out overall for the commodities complex.

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Speaker 8: Of course, a weaker dollar means a stronger rand, but

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Speaker 8: it also means a higher commodity prices.

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Speaker 2: So at the end of the day, it's really going to.

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Speaker 8: Be about that mix and how that plays out.

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Speaker 2: SPA down three percent on the day we spoke to

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Speaker 2: their CEO yesterday. They've got rid of a lot of

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Speaker 2: their death They've sorted out their issues in Poland and Switzerland. Finally,

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Speaker 2: I mean, their future seemed to me their outlook seemed

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Speaker 2: to be a little more optimistic than perhaps they last

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Speaker 2: two years agen.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, look, I mean, so when the numbers came out,

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Speaker 8: just I think the one thing was clear that their

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Speaker 8: group even continues to remain.

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Speaker 2: A little bit of pressure.

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Speaker 8: Those numbers are down about six percent, and frankly, we

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Speaker 8: found it quite challenging going through the numbers to sort

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Speaker 8: of split out the performance. Very clearly between the first

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Speaker 8: half and the second half, and that's largely because there

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Speaker 8: were quite a couple of restatements going through the accounts.

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Speaker 8: It is fairly clear that they also had a.

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Speaker 2: Very strong Black Friday.

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Speaker 8: Now, of course, one could argue that that's probably a

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Speaker 8: function of aggressive discounting, which is what we heard through

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Speaker 8: the grapevine. But I think the market's being a bit

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Speaker 8: discouraged here by the shifting guidance with respect to their margins.

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Speaker 8: So they're looking for a three percent margin. I think

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Speaker 8: the initial target was twenty twenty six. They're now talking

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Speaker 8: about twenty twenty eight. And to be that in context,

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Speaker 8: they're currently sitting at about one point eight percent. So

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Speaker 8: I think the market basically just you know, marking down

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Speaker 8: expectations here.

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Speaker 2: As sappy down six percent. What's happening there? And I

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Speaker 2: realized they're in a very complex position.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, So you saw that a deal announced a couple

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Speaker 8: of days ago, down to the fourth of December, around

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Speaker 8: combining the European graphic paper business with one of their competitors,

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Speaker 8: UPM Community. Look, I mean we didn't think the deal

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Speaker 8: was particularly positive. It was really just shifting around furniture

403
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Speaker 8: on is sinking ship. But the graphic paper market's been

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Speaker 8: very very difficult. In fact, prices continue to decline there,

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Speaker 8: and to be frank, I don't think we're going to

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Speaker 8: see any bounce as far as dissolving with pulp pricing

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Speaker 8: is concerned until we have some resolution of the US

408
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Speaker 8: China tariff situation. So yeah, for now, I think the

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Speaker 8: market's probably going to continue being putting pressure on sap BE,

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Speaker 8: just given how difficult does fundamentals look.

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Speaker 2: I mean, in a way, this is all about the

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Speaker 2: long term future of that company, and they have so

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Speaker 2: many different different things to manage.

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Speaker 8: I know, and you know there's there's little excess capacity,

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Speaker 8: there's a weak European demand environment. Yeah, management toply we're

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Speaker 8: cut up for them.

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Speaker 2: Ryan Hill, thank you so much really to appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: They had a fundamental sales at abscess CIB. What's up

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Speaker 2: Stephen on seven two seven two one seven two twenty

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Speaker 2: four minutes now to seventh time? Will you heard that

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Speaker 2: conversation earlier around the ve issues around the new Department

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Speaker 2: of Electricity's policies towards building the new grid essentially upgrading

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Speaker 2: the grid, that we have a huge amount of money

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Speaker 2: being spent on that and the sort of as you

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Speaker 2: heard in the Conversation news that in fact the Bee partners,

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Speaker 2: these are the companies that will be pairing up, the

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Speaker 2: big international companies that will be doing a lot of

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Speaker 2: the work, don't need any technical expertise, don't need to

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Speaker 2: be working in electricity.

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Speaker 8: Now.

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Speaker 2: It's a strange thing because it seem like an opportunity lost,

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Speaker 2: certainly from what we heard tonight. Just to update you,

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Speaker 2: we have already sent messages to the people at the

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Speaker 2: Electricity Department. I'm hoping that the Ministry or maybe the

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Speaker 2: Minister will be available to talk to you tomorrow on this.

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Speaker 2: I do think it's an important story. I saw today

437
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 2: a fascinating story about Steers and Debonair's and they've now

438
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 2: launched the first Stiers and Debonair's combo in Malaysia. And

439
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 2: it does make you think about where South African fast

440
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 2: food ends up. And we can complain about the McDonald's

441
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 2: and the Burger Kings and all the other things that

442
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 2: you get here, but think about it like this. If

443
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 2: you go to many parts of the Middle East, you

444
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 2: will find Spur, you'll find Nando's, and it is quite

445
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 2: something that actually in many parts of the world, you

446
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,120
Speaker 2: do find South African fast food brands. And I say

447
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 2: that because it is so competitive. There are so many

448
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 2: different types of fast food around the world, and yet

449
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 2: our brands seem to be doing really rather well. Nando's

450
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 2: has sort of taken over the world. People in Britain

451
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 2: find this hilarious. Think it's British. They also think they're

452
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 2: good at rugby, but they seem to think that they

453
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:09,400
Speaker 2: literally that Nando's is a British thing. I mean, obviously

454
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 2: it's not. It's from Bears Valley. How do we know

455
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 2: we were there? Anyway, if you were overseas, if you

456
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,400
Speaker 2: were in a different part of the world, Let's say,

457
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 2: maybe you're in le Goss or you're in Beijing, which

458
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 2: South African fast food brand would suddenly make you feel

459
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 2: a little more cheerful? Oh seven two seven oh two

460
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:28,880
Speaker 2: one seven oh two.

461
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,679
Speaker 1: The Lally Show with Stephen krudis live on ninety two

462
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 1: point seven and one six f M, streaming on the

463
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 1: Prime Media Plus.

464
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 2: NAP and DStv channel eight five six eighteen minutes two

465
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 2: seven The Time are good Year from you tonight own

466
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 2: double one double A three oh seven oh two and

467
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 2: O two one four four six O five six seven

468
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,880
Speaker 2: voice notes two. Which South African fast food restaurant would

469
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 2: you be the happiest to see if you were in

470
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 2: another country? Oh seven two seven oh two one seven

471
00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 2: oh two. You heard the conversation around consumer confidence a

472
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 2: little while ago. Well, also today, I suppose coincidentally, news

473
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,959
Speaker 2: from the Northwest University's Business schools policy uncertainty and X

474
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,159
Speaker 2: that's looking better too. It's gone from a record high

475
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 2: of eighty one points in the third quarter to just

476
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 2: under sixty five. Now, just to be clear, when we

477
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 2: talk about policy uncertainty, lower is better. Professor Raymond Parsons

478
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 2: is the economist at the NWU Business School. Raymond, good evening,

479
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 2: Thank you for your time. What is pushing your policy

480
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 2: uncertainty and X down? Which factors?

481
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 9: Well, good evening to you. Look, I think in the

482
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 9: last few months, compared with the first half of the

483
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 9: we've seen a convergence of a number of good news

484
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 9: items which I think some of us will be familiar with,

485
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 9: such as a good medium term budget policy statement well

486
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,360
Speaker 9: received by the markets, the fact that we got off

487
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 9: the gray list, the fact that one of the major

488
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 9: one of the major rating agencies has upgraded our status.

489
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 9: I think it was the accumulation and the convergence of

490
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 9: this better news this has enabled us to reflect it

491
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 9: in this index. This is now saying that as we

492
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 9: move into next year, there is less uncertainty, there's more

493
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 9: of a platform on which to build a better economic

494
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 9: performance next year. So I would say that, in a sense,

495
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 9: what the index is now saying, and what some of

496
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 9: the other indices are saying as well, is that the

497
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 9: table has been laid for next year and now we've

498
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 9: just got to ensure that we can serve a good growth,

499
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 9: job rich meal.

500
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 2: The thing that sort of struck me over the last

501
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 2: month or so with the issues around the good news

502
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 2: you talk about lower inflation target, lower government debt, clearly

503
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 2: a determination it seems from government to pay back that

504
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 2: debt and lower debt and all of those things together.

505
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 2: Plus the fact, and we shouldn't forget this, that difficulty

506
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 2: over the budget, the political fight over the budget at

507
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 2: the beginning of the year, seems to have completely disappeared.

508
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 2: Everyone seems to be on the same hymn sheet now.

509
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 2: It would seem to me that government, the National Coalition

510
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 2: has some direction and once you see a government moving

511
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 2: in some direction, you immediately reduce policy uncertainty.

512
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 9: Well, that's right, and the reverse of that coin is

513
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 9: it also pills confidence that more of the right decisions

514
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,199
Speaker 9: will be taken next year about the economy and that

515
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 9: they will be implemented.

516
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 7: I would just.

517
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 9: Say, though, that a lot of the progress that we've

518
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 9: made this year, which is reflected in the various indices,

519
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 9: is on the financial front, inflation, interest rates, what the

520
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 9: rating agencies think of us, getting our deficits under control.

521
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 9: What we've got now also understand that next year the

522
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:05,159
Speaker 9: focus has to be equally on the real economy, because

523
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 9: the things you and I talk about may sometimes seem

524
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 9: very remote to the average listener. What we've got to

525
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 9: say is, as we move into the next year, we've

526
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 9: got to use this better financial news, in particular to

527
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 9: up our growth rate, to get more fixed investment, and

528
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 9: to get lower unemployment. That's the real economy. So we've

529
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 9: got to use some of the better news on the

530
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 9: financial front and ensure the next year we'll take those

531
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,239
Speaker 9: decisions that will make a difference on the ground in

532
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 9: terms of high economic growth, more fixed investment, not just

533
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 9: just not the markets, the JSE or the financial markets,

534
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 9: and above all, begin to show further progress, as we've

535
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 9: done in the past few months in beginning to bring

536
00:28:56,280 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 9: down the high, unacceptable level of unemployment. So we are

537
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 9: in a better position now to be able to address

538
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 9: those issues, and the ball is in our court to

539
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 9: show that we will seize the moment next year.

540
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 2: To do it. How big an issue is crime? And

541
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 2: I say that from a number of perspectives. The one

542
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 2: is just I think in many places, if you want

543
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 2: to expand your business, you're just worried that actually you

544
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 2: might not be able to keep the assets you want

545
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 2: to buy it. Particularly and this is really a construction

546
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 2: question as well, because crime and construction mafia has been

547
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 2: such a big issue there, although there seems to be

548
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 2: some progress on that. And then I watch, I'm sure

549
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 2: as you do, with my jaw on the floor at

550
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 2: the revelations at the Madelunga Commission, the Parliamentary Commission, and

551
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 2: you wonder if we're ever going to get on top

552
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 2: of all of this. How big a factor is crime?

553
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 2: Do you think in the fact that companies don't really

554
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 2: want to invest in expanding production.

555
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 9: I think this feeds right into my point about the

556
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 9: real economy that we can talk about inflation targeting about

557
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 9: but on the ground and in people's lives, the issue

558
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 9: of crime is a real factor affecting the real economy.

559
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 9: So quite clearly, apart from the progress that we've made

560
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 9: so far and building a positive platform in which to

561
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:19,719
Speaker 9: go into next year, we've got to show that among

562
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 9: the other indices we're going to get right is to

563
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 9: reduce the level of crime in South Africa and change

564
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 9: the optics on that side of the equation. So that's

565
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 9: but we've had to get some other things right first

566
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 9: in order to get the markets and investors in the

567
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 9: right frame of mind. We have got them in the

568
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 9: right frame of mind, especially after the G twenty and

569
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 9: having had a very successful host thing of that. But now,

570
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 9: as I've said, we've got to show that in the

571
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 9: new year we're going to translate this cautious optimism into

572
00:30:55,960 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 9: real change, particularly on issues such as crime, so that

573
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 9: we can consolidate the better news that have experienced up

574
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 9: until the end of this year.

575
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 2: There really does seem to be a very strong link,

576
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 2: and it's an obvious link between politics and policy uncertainty,

577
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 2: and it seems to me that towards the end of

578
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 2: next year, so probably ten months from now we will

579
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 2: be talking quite divisive politics because we'll be going into

580
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 2: a local government election. There'll be a big fuss about

581
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 2: the results of that January twenty twenty seven. The conversation

582
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 2: immediately will be who will take over from Saramapausa as

583
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 2: leader of the ANC and presumably at some point as

584
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 2: president of the country. Do those things worry you.

585
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 9: I think it's important from an investor point of view,

586
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 9: and that's what we're really talking about. We want next

587
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 9: year to show progress on the fixed investment front. We

588
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 9: want more investors to commit themselves to the long term.

589
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 9: What do they want. They're not really into party politics.

590
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 9: What they say is we want to see political stability

591
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 9: and we want to see policy certainty. And I think

592
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 9: if if our politicians and our political leaders, whatever they're infighting,

593
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 9: can nonetheless bear in mind that they can be collateral

594
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 9: damage to both our political stability and our policy certainty,

595
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 9: if they don't play the game according to certain rules,

596
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 9: then we will not get the economic performance we want.

597
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 9: But I think the important point is if you want

598
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 9: to get if you want to get the good economics,

599
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 9: you've also got to get the good politics and that

600
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 9: is a challenge to our political leadership of all political parties,

601
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 9: whether inside the GNU or outside the GNU.

602
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 2: Professor Raymond Parsons, thank you so much, really do appreciate it.

603
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 2: The economists at Northwest University's Business School and of course

604
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 2: are the prime mover behind the policy uncertainty and ext

605
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 2: Ten minutes now to seven.

606
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 3: The money show is Deal Quit is brought to you

607
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 3: by Abscess c IV. Discover the latest trends shaping digital

608
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 3: assets across Africa. Download the as Africa Digital Assets Insights

609
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five.

610
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 2: Eight minutes to seven. When I was talking earlier about

611
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 2: Deboneirs and Steers, the first Steers and Deboneze Comba opening

612
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 2: in Malaysia. If you're out of the country, which is

613
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 2: your which is the South African fast food restaurant you

614
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:23,719
Speaker 2: would want to see?

615
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 10: My Hi, Stephen, Jenny g. Just for the record, Nando's

616
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 10: comes from Resettonville. My husband actually taught well the nando children.

617
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 10: Can't remember which one it was, but yeah. From a

618
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 10: resettable worldwide success story for me, it would be Simply Asia,

619
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 10: which would be quite strange. He if you're ready in

620
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 10: Asia at simply Asia. But I go there every Friday,

621
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 10: and I love their food. It's so fresh and perhaps

622
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 10: not too freemed to put it that way.

623
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 2: Cheers by lovely word free and thank you. I don't

624
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 2: think i've heard it on this radio show before. Thank

625
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 2: you for the correction about Resettonville. If you're from bes

626
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,959
Speaker 2: Valley and you would like to respond to Rosetteville and

627
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 2: reclaim the birthplace of Nando's feel free oh seven two

628
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:13,439
Speaker 2: seven oh two one seven o two. Stephen is gone

629
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:17,319
Speaker 2: x at at Stephen. And while we'll let them fight

630
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 2: it out, we should probably talk about something that's getting

631
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 2: a little more complicated. You may remember Botswana's ban on

632
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 2: some of our vegetables and they finally lifted it. Well,

633
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 2: I don't know how to feel when I tell you

634
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,359
Speaker 2: that has been reinstated. And for the moment, if you

635
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 2: are traveling to Botswana and you happen to, I don't know,

636
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 2: have some tomatoes or something in your salad, or potatoes

637
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 2: or many other vegetable products, in fact, you could be

638
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 2: in big trouble. One Deleasa Flowball is the chief economist

639
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 2: at the Agricultural Business Chamber. One Dila, good evening. I mean,

640
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 2: I remember I think you and I shared a similar frustration.

641
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 2: I think you might have been a bit more frustrated

642
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 2: than I was when this was imposed the last time.

643
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 2: I would imagine you're feeling a bit frustrated again tonight.

644
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 4: It's trade are more Night Stevens, not only just because

645
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 4: it's a disruption on prisoners activity, but also the fact

646
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:13,720
Speaker 4: that within the suck we seem not to be following

647
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,920
Speaker 4: the rules of what really is going on. And I

648
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 4: think that if each and every country, whenever they are

649
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 4: unhappy or they have certain aspirations, they wake up and

650
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 4: then they place a band and they don't communicate with

651
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:29,720
Speaker 4: the next country, but all communication press releases, that causes

652
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 4: a lot of disruption. That there will be better coordinating

653
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 4: us in South Africa, understanding the aspirations of what Botswana

654
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 4: attempts to do and then making sure that we support

655
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 4: them in those thoughts other than the current practice that

656
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 4: we see continue.

657
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 2: Do we know what impact our vegetables have on Botswana's farmers?

658
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,799
Speaker 2: I mean, are we preventing them from growing? I mean,

659
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 2: Botswana surely has strong commercial farmers.

660
00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 4: They do have a strong commissions, but more on the

661
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 4: livestock and I mean student they are not even a

662
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:08,720
Speaker 4: big way of Let me give you these few numbers.

663
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 4: South Africa ex sports about two hundred and eighteen million

664
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 4: US dollars worth of vegetable products to the world market,

665
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,359
Speaker 4: and Botsana is about eight percent of that. That might

666
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,720
Speaker 4: be seventeen million US dollars or so. But of course

667
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 4: it's not like we are making Botsana drown on this.

668
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 4: And someone on egg said, because of the storm over tomatoes.

669
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 4: The issues not tomatoes. The issue are the rules that

670
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:38,320
Speaker 4: are not being followed in Saku and whilst also away,

671
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 4: there's a lot of challenges for South Africa want to

672
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 4: do buy a lot of our trade agreements with countries.

673
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,800
Speaker 4: We are having to come back to consult countries countries

674
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 4: that do not consult South Africa. So for our economic

675
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 4: diplomises thinking, we are now running into a lot of

676
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:58,360
Speaker 4: friction here, which is why I always aide that FACU

677
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 4: needs to be reviewed both is now a trade of

678
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 4: a preemi, but also for eating up the friction that

679
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 4: we currently see so that the African businesses can plan

680
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 4: well on what.

681
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 2: To do in this dia. We are losing you a

682
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 2: little bit on that line. I don't know if you're

683
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 2: able to strengthen it. But I mean, this is the

684
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 2: one thing I just don't get if I were Botswana,

685
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 2: so because it's much bigger economy than yours, surely you

686
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 2: just tap us on the shoulder and say, look, I'm

687
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 2: battling with this, I'm going to do this. From what

688
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 2: I can see, there's no notice at all, or no

689
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 2: even better, look, can we get together and have a coffee.

690
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 2: I'm paying.

691
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 4: Absolutely stiven because the cored thing is that you can't

692
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 4: help on South African shoulders and say I am trying

693
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 4: to grow myxyz industry and in a way we can

694
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:43,760
Speaker 4: even assist on making sure that you have the inputs

695
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 4: to do that. Thereafter, the South African industries would be

696
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 4: able to plan and plan appropriately as to what to

697
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 4: do under these dynamics. The challenge is the inconsistency when

698
00:37:55,880 --> 00:38:01,360
Speaker 4: rules change at borddenly the fact that when South Africa

699
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 4: now has to negotiate trade agreements with any other country

700
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 4: in the world market, we cannot do that latter. We

701
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 4: have to come back and talk to SAKO and follow

702
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 4: the rules, and we've been doing that. But the challenge

703
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 4: I'm having that SACU members do not follow.

704
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:17,280
Speaker 2: The rules of SAKO.

705
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 4: What is constrained in a current environment where we are

706
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 4: trying to push export diversification and we cannot move at

707
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 4: our own pace without considering labors that are unconsiderate.

708
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:32,359
Speaker 2: Wandli Saidhobo, thanks very much. Indeed a lot more to ask.

709
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 2: Is that line giving up on us? The chief economist

710
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 2: of the Agricultural Business Chamber. I have to say, I

711
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:39,919
Speaker 2: mean I just sort of literally I'm scratching my head

712
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 2: because surely that's the thing you do. Is you still say,

713
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 2: can we talk about this? Can we have a negotiation

714
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 2: about this? But as wanting that says the sort of

715
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:51,840
Speaker 2: unilateral nature of it, the fact that it just happens,

716
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:55,359
Speaker 2: the fact that you know, there's no discussion, and then

717
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 2: this time it seems to be quite a wide range

718
00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 2: of vegetables, and from what I understand, I haven't done

719
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 2: it myself, but actually taking stuff through Botswana very difficult

720
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 2: to do. You're also, I mean, you're punishing someone for

721
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 2: carrying tomatoes. I mean it just seems a little bit bizarre.

722
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 2: I mean, sure, if it's a bucky of tomatoes, well

723
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,359
Speaker 2: then obviously there's someone's trying to break the law. But

724
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 2: I do just think that surely we can be a

725
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 2: little better about this. What it also tells me though,

726
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 2: and we mustn't. We mustn't, we mustn't fail to recognize.

727
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 2: This is what seemed to me that the Baswana government,

728
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 2: first time they have a new political party in power,

729
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 2: never happened in their history. Politics in Botswana is becoming

730
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 2: more accountable, a bit like ours in so many ways.

731
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 2: And what you're actually seeing is that the government is

732
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 2: clearly responding to a very organized, a very important constituency.

733
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 2: And that's a big part of this. It's a bit

734
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 2: like how do we make sure that actually the US

735
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 2: doesn't impose deep tariffs on our wine or oranges for example.

736
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 2: To really do it, you have to go deep into

737
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 2: American politics. You have to go into you know, whoever

738
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 2: the concer situency as farmers or whatever, and say to them,

739
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 2: get your government to change. Buttswana maybe we need to

740
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 2: do the same thing. We need to go and find

741
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:11,359
Speaker 2: the constituency and say to them. And it might well

742
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 2: be consumers in Botswana, because I presume but there are

743
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 2: fewer vegetables around that pushes up their pricing, and so

744
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 2: we need to go to them somehow and make the

745
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 2: claim there. You need to apply domestic political pressure on

746
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 2: the botswan In government. I mean, that's really how you

747
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 2: would do it, all right. Coming up, we will speak

748
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:30,920
Speaker 2: to as someone we've spoken to a couple of times,

749
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 2: is someone who has a very important position, Hya Banawe

750
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 2: is the Chief Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission,

751
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 2: and we'll speak to him about steel industries around the

752
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 2: world and how governments are intervening. Rotendo and Dingree will

753
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 2: be with you, and of course warrent Ingram as well.

754
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:47,879
Speaker 2: You're at the Money Show. Good evening at seven o'clock.

755
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 1: And now the Money Show with Stephen credits on seven

756
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 1: o two.

757
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 2: Let's walk little. The Money Show with Stephen Curtis is

758
00:40:57,360 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 2: brought to you by Abscess cib Discover the latest in

759
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 2: shaping digital assets across Africa. Download the Absent Africa Digital

760
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 2: Assets Insights twenty twenty five. Six minutes after seven, the

761
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 2: time will tend to and Dingue already here he of

762
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:14,880
Speaker 2: course is the funding director of Tribe Africa Advisory. We

763
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 2: will look to an extent in that conversation around Chinese

764
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 2: exports to Africa. We've been talking about the car industry

765
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 2: already tonight what that does for consumer confidence because new

766
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 2: cars are cheaper. The world is changing very quickly when

767
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,839
Speaker 2: it comes to trade, and it's absolutely fascinating. I find

768
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 2: it really interesting. So we'll talk about that. Aya Banga Kawe,

769
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 2: the Chief Commissioner of the International Trade Administration Commission. He's

770
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 2: been looking at the issue around steel and it is

771
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:43,240
Speaker 2: so devilishly difficult, but I think it's a very important issue.

772
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 2: And then, of course we will also be speaking to

773
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:49,320
Speaker 2: Warren Ingram this evening what to do if the stock

774
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 2: market crashes next year? Diversify Warren, why would you do

775
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 2: anything else?

776
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 1: What app Stephen?

777
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:02,839
Speaker 2: One to two one seven two. I should have known

778
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:06,280
Speaker 2: that somehow a conversation about vegetables would run me into trouble.

779
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:11,879
Speaker 11: Evening, Stephen, can you please stop referring to Botswana as Botswana.

780
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 11: Botswana is the name of the country. The citizens of

781
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 11: the country Bana are Batswana. Can you please refer to

782
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:27,359
Speaker 11: Botswana as Botswana and not as Botswana in the same

783
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:31,320
Speaker 11: way you see you'd say France and called France French.

784
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 2: Well, sorry about that. I did mean Botswana the country

785
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 2: in the way that I was referring to it, and

786
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 2: I am aware of the difference. I think I just

787
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 2: wasn't as clear as I should have been. Sorry, but yes,

788
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 2: I did know that the conversation around vegetables would get

789
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 2: me into trouble in a little while. All Right, I'm

790
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 2: still I just still think that the actions of the

791
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 2: government of Botswana need some further evaluation. Let me put

792
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,440
Speaker 2: it like that, eight minutes after seven.

793
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:03,720
Speaker 1: Seven two, Stephen has gone x at at Stephen.

794
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:06,480
Speaker 2: Eight minutes after seven Well, you know, there have been

795
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,760
Speaker 2: so many issues with our major steel producer, arsenal Mittal

796
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:12,320
Speaker 2: is had to shut down its long steel business, mainly

797
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 2: because there's an oversupply of steel on global markets. The

798
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 2: Chief commission of the International Trade Administration Commission, Hya Banerway,

799
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 2: writing in his personal capacity today, well this week rather

800
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,359
Speaker 2: that around the world, we're seeing governments having to get

801
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 2: a lot more involved in the steel industry. Well, the

802
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 2: Chief Commissioner is on the line now I have banker

803
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:33,800
Speaker 2: Good evening, and thanks for your time. I mean, you've written,

804
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 2: I thought, quite a robust argument, essentially saying governments have

805
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:40,279
Speaker 2: no choice but to get involved in the industry. What

806
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 2: are you saying here?

807
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 5: Well, good evening to you, Stephen, and good evening to

808
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:47,880
Speaker 5: your listeners. Well, I think you know, there are peculiar

809
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 5: features of the technological profile of making steel across the

810
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 5: world that have created all manner of market failures that

811
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:59,240
Speaker 5: have necessitated state intervention. And I think really the piece

812
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 5: was to locate hate our own debates and our own

813
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:06,360
Speaker 5: national steel crisis in a global context. This on the

814
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 5: back Stephen, as some of your listeners might be aware

815
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 5: of a decision by the lower houses of Parliament in

816
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 5: France UH to effectively push a motion to nationalize Aslo

817
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:20,840
Speaker 5: Metau fronts, and of course it still has to go

818
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:23,319
Speaker 5: through the process there. But we also did see earlier

819
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 5: on in the year the introduction of the British Steel Act,

820
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:31,280
Speaker 5: which effectively, for all intents and purposes, placed under steal

821
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 5: under state control the Scunthorpe Steel Works, which is a

822
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:38,400
Speaker 5: critical feature of the industrial backbone of the United Kingdom.

823
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 5: H And I could give you many other examples the

824
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 5: United States and their interventions in US Steel, the conditions

825
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 5: to the merger between US Steel and the Nippon and

826
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 5: then add to that, of course, UH, the intervention that

827
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 5: one sees in the steel sector in China, and add

828
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:59,240
Speaker 5: to that and further the type of intervention to secure

829
00:44:59,239 --> 00:45:01,879
Speaker 5: feed stocking in that we saw in the budget speech

830
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 5: earlier on in the year, and similarly measures by the

831
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 5: twenty seven nations in the EU to try and deal

832
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 5: with their scrap exports as a critical feedstock into making steel. So,

833
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:15,320
Speaker 5: if there's anything in the last over forty five weeks

834
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:17,919
Speaker 5: or so that we've had in twenty twenty five, you've

835
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 5: seen all manner of examples of state intervention in the

836
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:24,360
Speaker 5: steel sector indicating the extent of the crisis that we

837
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:24,680
Speaker 5: see that.

838
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:28,359
Speaker 2: So, I mean, the price mechanism is broken. I don't

839
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:31,240
Speaker 2: think anyone can argue with that. So that's the case.

840
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,280
Speaker 2: Is it true to say there are no good options?

841
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:37,439
Speaker 2: There are only bad options and expensive options for governments.

842
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:40,040
Speaker 5: But I don't know. I mean, I don't know what

843
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:43,040
Speaker 5: is good and what is bad. I think the necessity

844
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 5: of steel in almost everything that we have, whether in

845
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 5: our cars and our homes, in our washing machines, in

846
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:54,239
Speaker 5: our sinks and so on, makes a reliance on importation

847
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 5: of steel a massive resilience risk for any nation. And

848
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:02,919
Speaker 5: so if the price mechanism is broken precisely because you've

849
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 5: got a chronic rather than episodic overproduction in that market,

850
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 5: then it does necessitate not only nation state level intervention,

851
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 5: but increasingly we're starting to see that intervention taking the

852
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:18,840
Speaker 5: form of intervention by economic communities. I mean, take for instance,

853
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,879
Speaker 5: what the European Union announced a few weeks ago, where

854
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 5: they are effectively walking away from the bounded TIFFs they

855
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 5: had on steel that data agreed to over thirty years ago,

856
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:31,920
Speaker 5: and they are saying, well, conditions have changed and as

857
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:35,319
Speaker 5: a result, we can't rarely continue to trade in the

858
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:38,759
Speaker 5: manner that we did before, and we are triggering an

859
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 5: Article twenty eight process in the WTO. So I think

860
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:44,960
Speaker 5: every country that has had a steel or foundry industry

861
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:48,800
Speaker 5: is finding itself with what might be seen as probably

862
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 5: the least best option to retain whatever capability they would

863
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:53,359
Speaker 5: have had.

864
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 2: At some point you have to have a conversation around

865
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:01,319
Speaker 2: whether you need to retain the capacity that the capability

866
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 2: do we still need to be able to make all

867
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 2: of the to make this kind of stell In South Africa,

868
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:09,560
Speaker 2: We're not there yet, but at some point someone's going

869
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 2: to have to have that conversation.

870
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:13,000
Speaker 5: Well, I think it depends even I mean, I think

871
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:17,400
Speaker 5: you have to decide in the very diverse products range

872
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 5: of steel and the downstream uses of steel, Which are

873
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 5: the elements that you would preferentially want to retain some

874
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 5: capability in, and which are the other areas where you're

875
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 5: willing to say, maybe some of your trading partners might

876
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 5: be able to assist you so that you don't have

877
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:36,319
Speaker 5: an entire gluts as a perennial problem. But there are

878
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:38,480
Speaker 5: certain areas. I mean, take the defense sector, just as

879
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:41,719
Speaker 5: the argument there, armored grades of steel that you see

880
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:45,880
Speaker 5: in tankers and even cash and transits vehicles is the

881
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 5: kind of strategic steel resource that ideally you would not

882
00:47:50,160 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 5: want to have a reliance on someone you have antagonistic

883
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:57,360
Speaker 5: relations with, because what happens when those relations come to

884
00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:00,360
Speaker 5: a head, someone will starve you of the necessary steel

885
00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:02,840
Speaker 5: that you need. And I could extend that to the

886
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 5: steel grades that are used for armaments, or even the

887
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:08,279
Speaker 5: steel grades that might be used for industrial and even

888
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 5: household application. You do want to retain a certain capability.

889
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 5: I mean, if you want to build a dam, think

890
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:16,839
Speaker 5: of how much steel you would need, and I think

891
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,960
Speaker 5: it presents a foreign exchange and balance of payments challenge

892
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:22,239
Speaker 5: if you're going to import all of your requirements. I mean,

893
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 5: take the Basutu, the Lasutu Highlands Water Project, which is

894
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 5: being refurbished and maintained at the moment, massive amounts of

895
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:33,680
Speaker 5: steel take our transmission expenditure, that capital expenditure by s

896
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 5: com on transmission lines, massive requirements for steel. You probably

897
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 5: don't want a situation where you have over reliance on

898
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:42,880
Speaker 5: external sources for that kind of steel.

899
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:47,800
Speaker 2: Steel prices are low because there is so much steel

900
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 2: in the market.

901
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 5: And much more than anyone can absorb.

902
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, and isn't that they're not. There are many

903
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 2: reasons that many people who produce it. But the single

904
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 2: biggest actor, I mean, would it be and would it

905
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:03,720
Speaker 2: be the Chinese government that at a stroke could affect

906
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 2: us one way or another?

907
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:07,600
Speaker 5: Well, I think yes, China is a big part of it.

908
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 5: But I think often when we say it's only China,

909
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,799
Speaker 5: we overlook the massive capacity build up there's been since

910
00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 5: the global financial crisis in India. We overlook how Turkey

911
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:23,280
Speaker 5: without any iron ore, has effectively become a dominant steel

912
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:27,760
Speaker 5: producer in the EU and effectively in products like coil

913
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 5: wire and many of the things that are often seen

914
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 5: or unseen. They've dominated certain product markets in the European

915
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 5: Union on the back of building a massive electric ox

916
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:44,200
Speaker 5: furnace network that allows them, even without an iron ore

917
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:47,840
Speaker 5: presence like say Australia or South Africa, to still be

918
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 5: a dominant kind of steel producer in the northern hemisphere.

919
00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 5: So yes, China is a big part of it. But

920
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:55,880
Speaker 5: I think to only say it is China is to

921
00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:59,320
Speaker 5: overlook the massive capacity ramp up we've seen in the

922
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 5: last while coming through from Turkey and India. But for us,

923
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:04,120
Speaker 5: Steve and I must tell you, part of the other

924
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 5: capacity rampup we are beginning to observe is actually in

925
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:11,320
Speaker 5: our neighborhood. Look at the for instance, the billet imports

926
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:13,600
Speaker 5: we're beginning to start to see coming through from Zimbabwe,

927
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:16,359
Speaker 5: where you've got a steel mode that's been set up

928
00:50:16,400 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 5: there on the back of Chinese investment that is beginning

929
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 5: to bring product into South Africa. Right, And so the

930
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:26,840
Speaker 5: market is changing in ways that one are unprecedented, But

931
00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:30,320
Speaker 5: I think second to that that do necessitate different forms

932
00:50:30,320 --> 00:50:33,879
Speaker 5: of state intervention. It's not just about intervention for intervention's sake,

933
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 5: but it's about intervention to not just retain capability, but

934
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 5: to also make sure that you don't have a situation

935
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:45,840
Speaker 5: where unmanaged expansions of capacity end up kind of making

936
00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:47,240
Speaker 5: the entire balance out of KILTA.

937
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 2: I mean, if ever there was an argument for a

938
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 2: sort of internationally coordinated response, this would be it. But

939
00:50:54,719 --> 00:50:59,239
Speaker 2: that I mean, I don't know. It just raises so

940
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:00,319
Speaker 2: many issues.

941
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:02,000
Speaker 5: His Starting in the twenties, there used to be something

942
00:51:02,040 --> 00:51:05,960
Speaker 5: called the international Steel Cutels. And those who are a

943
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:09,279
Speaker 5: bit older than I am often say that, you know,

944
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:13,200
Speaker 5: after the First World War, that type of international solution,

945
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:15,839
Speaker 5: at least among those countries who are part of the

946
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:20,560
Speaker 5: kind of Commonwealth or the Imperial Conference, effectively came to

947
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 5: a head and was one of the trigger points for

948
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:25,799
Speaker 5: what you saw in the Second World War. So I

949
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:29,840
Speaker 5: think often when you begin to create cartels of a

950
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:34,800
Speaker 5: transnational character, they then also begin to portend all manner

951
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 5: of rumors of war.

952
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:37,319
Speaker 6: Hi A.

953
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:40,480
Speaker 2: Bunker, thank you really do appreciate it all came. I

954
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 2: should really call you the Chief Commissioner of the International

955
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 2: Trade Administration, HIA Bunker, seventeen minutes after seven too.

956
00:51:48,000 --> 00:51:50,720
Speaker 1: Many shows African Business.

957
00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:54,400
Speaker 2: Focus nineteen minutes after seven the time, Well, Doctor Rutendu Dingley,

958
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:57,040
Speaker 2: the founding director of Tribe Africa, Advisory author of the

959
00:51:57,040 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 2: book Grumble in the Jungle reloaded with US wettend to

960
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:03,239
Speaker 2: our houzard, good evening, Good to see you man the

961
00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:05,920
Speaker 2: last time this year. We haven't broken the news to

962
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 2: all re yet. We will, but surely we've been talking

963
00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:10,440
Speaker 2: a lot about trade.

964
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:13,760
Speaker 12: You heard Ibugera away from the International Trade Administration Commission,

965
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:18,279
Speaker 12: and we were talking earlier as well about how new

966
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:21,320
Speaker 12: car inflation in South Africa was at one point six percent.

967
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 2: Because of the new cars, the cheaper cars that are

968
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:27,000
Speaker 2: coming in, they're made in China. Bran and Chinese exports

969
00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:29,879
Speaker 2: African country is up to two hundred billion dollars this year.

970
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 13: Yeah, two hundred billion dollars. Last year, Steven, as an

971
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 13: end of December it was two hundred and ninety seven billion.

972
00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:38,919
Speaker 13: So by end of this year would definitely probably reach

973
00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:42,359
Speaker 13: that and peak that. Bearing in mind that globally the

974
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:46,000
Speaker 13: Chinese surplus and trade is are trillion dollars and collectively

975
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:49,399
Speaker 13: Africa has got a deficit of sixty billion dollars. So

976
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:52,880
Speaker 13: the upside obviously from a Chinese perspective. Even with the

977
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 13: global tariffs and the war with the US, business is

978
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 13: doing well for them. They're still exporting they're still in

979
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 13: porty into Africa a lot of their stuff. And another

980
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:05,880
Speaker 13: key dynamic Steven is that they've just had the announcement

981
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:08,320
Speaker 13: of the launch I think it's in December of their Input,

982
00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 13: which is an island in China and that is a

983
00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:13,440
Speaker 13: free track zone. So what they're going to be doing

984
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 13: there is that they've reduced tariffs for seventy four percent

985
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 13: of line items to zero tariffs. And also I think

986
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:24,520
Speaker 13: corporate text is going to be about fifteen percent, so

987
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:28,160
Speaker 13: they've really created incentives for people to export to China.

988
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:31,920
Speaker 13: And obviously Africa is a tea target market, so from

989
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:33,840
Speaker 13: a Chinese perspective, with none of the fallow, has been

990
00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 13: a big player in Africa. I think the challenge is

991
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:38,319
Speaker 13: for Africa to say, how can we position ourselves to

992
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:39,800
Speaker 13: go up higher the value chat and that's.

993
00:53:39,640 --> 00:53:42,279
Speaker 2: Always been the case. It also shows you, I mean,

994
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:44,440
Speaker 2: how the world is changing. I mean, isn't the United

995
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:48,760
Speaker 2: States losing its economic influence on Africa? And that's because

996
00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 2: of their own choices.

997
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:51,879
Speaker 13: It's because of their own choices. And I think what

998
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:53,800
Speaker 13: this shows if you see the growth in China in

999
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:57,839
Speaker 13: terms of whether it's important exporting to Africa, the key

1000
00:53:57,880 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 13: regions that are driving that growth of trade for China,

1001
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 13: Stephen are are trade with Africa and you in some

1002
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:06,960
Speaker 13: of the Asian markets. So although there's been a lot

1003
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 13: of distability from a world trade perspective, China doesn't it

1004
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:14,359
Speaker 13: doesn't seem to be taking negative No, although analysts still

1005
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:17,520
Speaker 13: predict that it's unsustainable this rapid growth that's happening from

1006
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:21,560
Speaker 13: a trade perspective, evenu of flatline, but at the moment

1007
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 13: they're smiling all the way to the Chinese Bank.

1008
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 2: Sorry to use the pun no no. So Ethiopia, they've

1009
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:33,680
Speaker 2: looked at a big sort of deal. It's twenty nine

1010
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 2: trillion dollars on the gas by rail agreement. That's huge.

1011
00:54:37,600 --> 00:54:39,640
Speaker 13: So the reason is Thethopia is the agreement has been

1012
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:43,880
Speaker 13: signed in Ethiopia. It's with Ethiopia and the inside Dynamic Resources,

1013
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:46,960
Speaker 13: it's a big consulting firm. The actual project, Stephen is

1014
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:49,360
Speaker 13: given this unique name. It's called the Iron River of

1015
00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:53,800
Speaker 13: Energy and the ambition Stephen is and twenty nine trillion

1016
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 13: US dollars a lot of money is to build a

1017
00:54:56,600 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 13: gas by rail network. That's about seventy three five thirventy

1018
00:55:01,600 --> 00:55:04,200
Speaker 13: three thousand five hundred kilometers long. So just to give

1019
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:07,040
Speaker 13: you in terms of the length of this from Cape

1020
00:55:07,080 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 13: to the furthest point in North Africa, which is Tunisia,

1021
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:12,840
Speaker 13: it's about eighty ten thousand kilometers, so seventy five thousand

1022
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 13: k's of gas by rail is a big thing. It's

1023
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:19,800
Speaker 13: been driven the key partnerships that have come together in

1024
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:22,440
Speaker 13: order to deliver on this is obviously it's based on

1025
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:25,160
Speaker 13: clean fuel, clean steel. In terms of the construction of

1026
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:28,440
Speaker 13: the pipeline, the ideas to reduce a cub on footprint

1027
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:32,040
Speaker 13: by seventy five percent by using clean energy. And two

1028
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:35,720
Speaker 13: key partners that have come together with the African players

1029
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:39,399
Speaker 13: are Germany SMS Group and the US Waste Coupe. So

1030
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:42,960
Speaker 13: it's a positive initiative. It's a it's a very ambitious project.

1031
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:45,279
Speaker 13: A lot of money is going to be spent, but

1032
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:48,600
Speaker 13: there's putting pen to paper and it's going to I

1033
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:51,240
Speaker 13: think it's going to cover forty sub seven African countries

1034
00:55:51,440 --> 00:55:54,399
Speaker 13: and Ethiopia, which is usually a birthplace of most big

1035
00:55:54,440 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 13: African ideas like the OU, is going to be signatory

1036
00:55:58,280 --> 00:55:59,560
Speaker 13: for this project.

1037
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:02,520
Speaker 2: It's going to have an impact everywhere, No, it will.

1038
00:56:02,360 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 13: Because I mean where does this sort of fall under

1039
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:07,400
Speaker 13: if you think about the African Continental fue Trade Agreement

1040
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:10,840
Speaker 13: free movement of goods and people. This is spot on

1041
00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 13: in terms of that. One of the big challenges we

1042
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 13: have in Africa, Steven is you know very well that

1043
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:17,840
Speaker 13: there about six hundred million people who don't have access

1044
00:56:17,840 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 13: to electricity or power, and we've seen a lot of

1045
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 13: initiatives around this. So this is an element of bringing energy.

1046
00:56:24,200 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 13: I think the estimated number of people who benefit just

1047
00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 13: from a beneficiation perspective is one point two billion. But

1048
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:33,319
Speaker 13: then think from a value chained perspective, from an eco ecosystem,

1049
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 13: jobs created, and it's not just it's not a Chinese

1050
00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:39,120
Speaker 13: play with the way I understand, it's actually quite a

1051
00:56:39,120 --> 00:56:42,840
Speaker 13: Pan African multinational place. So it's a humongous project in

1052
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:47,200
Speaker 13: such an English world but world, but ultimately I think

1053
00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:49,080
Speaker 13: it to bring the right impact in what Africa needs

1054
00:56:49,120 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 13: from a infrastructure perspective.

1055
00:56:50,640 --> 00:56:54,480
Speaker 2: Sure, the United States has signed a new deal with Rwanda,

1056
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:56,600
Speaker 2: and you're very interesting to see those two countries sort

1057
00:56:56,600 --> 00:56:58,720
Speaker 2: of teaming up. And this is actually about health.

1058
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:01,520
Speaker 13: It's about health and this is on the bank. Obviously

1059
00:57:01,560 --> 00:57:05,759
Speaker 13: we know that President Government and President SHAKEDI in the

1060
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:09,960
Speaker 13: US designed a piece deal. Although I heard rumors today

1061
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 13: that the guys are no longer trusting each other. But

1062
00:57:13,360 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 13: coming back to reality, the US has invested about two

1063
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:19,200
Speaker 13: hundred and twenty eight million US dollars and this is

1064
00:57:19,240 --> 00:57:22,560
Speaker 13: specifically into the health space. They've got any initiative called

1065
00:57:22,920 --> 00:57:26,959
Speaker 13: America First Global Health Strategy. I can see you smiling, Stephen.

1066
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 2: On the name.

1067
00:57:29,480 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 13: But I think the key thing about this, Stephen, that

1068
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:34,520
Speaker 13: if it does work, which is a good idea, they've

1069
00:57:34,560 --> 00:57:38,080
Speaker 13: moved away as America from investing in pure aid and

1070
00:57:38,120 --> 00:57:40,919
Speaker 13: the idea is that it's a strategic partnership, so they'll

1071
00:57:40,920 --> 00:57:42,520
Speaker 13: co invest with Wonder.

1072
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:44,040
Speaker 2: Why is Wander quite key?

1073
00:57:44,200 --> 00:57:47,480
Speaker 13: The reason is Wonder you remember from an a FCFT perspective,

1074
00:57:47,720 --> 00:57:50,040
Speaker 13: from an African perspective, they've become the sort of the

1075
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:54,480
Speaker 13: innovative biotech hub or with regards to develop developing vaccines,

1076
00:57:54,880 --> 00:57:58,360
Speaker 13: developing pharmaceutical solutions on the continent. So if this is

1077
00:57:58,400 --> 00:58:01,800
Speaker 13: two and twenty eight million US dollars and it's supposed

1078
00:58:01,840 --> 00:58:04,680
Speaker 13: to be spread out over five years, has got the

1079
00:58:04,800 --> 00:58:07,840
Speaker 13: vision and the deliverables that it's committed to, and if

1080
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:12,360
Speaker 13: it's a sustainable model in terms of helping cure hiv, as, malaria,

1081
00:58:12,480 --> 00:58:14,920
Speaker 13: TB and polio. Then it's definitely a step in the

1082
00:58:14,960 --> 00:58:17,560
Speaker 13: right direction in terms of the bigger picture for Africa

1083
00:58:17,800 --> 00:58:19,680
Speaker 13: and obviously East Africa and Wanda.

1084
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:21,840
Speaker 2: Obviously we need peace in that region though, and I

1085
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:24,280
Speaker 2: know that it likes to kind of almost enforce a piece,

1086
00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:26,680
Speaker 2: but I don't know nearly as much as about the

1087
00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:29,760
Speaker 2: conflict between the DRC and the M twenty eighth and

1088
00:58:29,800 --> 00:58:33,720
Speaker 2: all the Race twenty three and the and Rwanda, except

1089
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 2: to say that's been going on for so long. You

1090
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:38,600
Speaker 2: can't just impose a piece. It's a bad pieces and.

1091
00:58:38,560 --> 00:58:41,000
Speaker 13: That has been the complexity of the piece in Africa

1092
00:58:41,080 --> 00:58:44,919
Speaker 13: is that that that always been go so long, and

1093
00:58:45,080 --> 00:58:46,960
Speaker 13: the quar it of of it obviously is the issue

1094
00:58:46,960 --> 00:58:49,840
Speaker 13: of the precious minerals that are there and the dynamics

1095
00:58:49,880 --> 00:58:52,560
Speaker 13: around that. So I think it's easier to say that done.

1096
00:58:53,040 --> 00:58:55,680
Speaker 13: But we just pray and hope that it will the

1097
00:58:55,720 --> 00:58:57,600
Speaker 13: peace will be fine, that a solution will be found.

1098
00:58:57,840 --> 00:59:01,120
Speaker 13: But ultimately, you know, you you don't throw the baby

1099
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:03,280
Speaker 13: with the bathwater. If this two twenty eight million dollars

1100
00:59:03,360 --> 00:59:06,280
Speaker 13: lens in that pharmaceutical innovative have been run and makes

1101
00:59:06,280 --> 00:59:07,440
Speaker 13: the positive impact.

1102
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:12,240
Speaker 2: So be it. And then Ibrahim Mahamma from Ghana the

1103
00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:16,920
Speaker 2: first African to top the annual Art Powerless Big Achievement Stephen.

1104
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:21,440
Speaker 13: This is an art award that is analyzed by thirty

1105
00:59:21,840 --> 00:59:25,720
Speaker 13: anonymous experts from around the world and judges and it's

1106
00:59:25,760 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 13: been running for twenty four years. The first time an

1107
00:59:27,560 --> 00:59:31,479
Speaker 13: African has won it. Ibrah Mohamma from Ghana and uses

1108
00:59:31,480 --> 00:59:35,880
Speaker 13: a very unique style of art, uses old hospital beds

1109
00:59:35,880 --> 00:59:39,120
Speaker 13: and discarded trained carriers. And also one of the key

1110
00:59:39,120 --> 00:59:42,080
Speaker 13: things that he also does, Stephen, is that he actually

1111
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 13: used a drapery art piece which had to be designed

1112
00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:51,600
Speaker 13: or built or sworn son son on a football stagi

1113
00:59:51,640 --> 00:59:54,360
Speaker 13: and that's how big the material was. So he's number

1114
00:59:54,400 --> 00:59:57,560
Speaker 13: one and quite an achievement. And he was educated at

1115
00:59:57,640 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 13: Kama Kuma University. Obviously quite the if you can from

1116
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:03,720
Speaker 13: a historical perspective, and it's it's it's I think it's

1117
01:00:03,720 --> 01:00:05,840
Speaker 13: a great African story that we've got great talent. I've

1118
01:00:05,880 --> 01:00:08,120
Speaker 13: been to Ghana a number of times. In Akra, there's

1119
01:00:08,160 --> 01:00:10,480
Speaker 13: an art market that is there's all this fabulous. I

1120
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:13,120
Speaker 13: can never live with it. So for him and Ghana

1121
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:15,000
Speaker 13: in Africa. It's a big thumbs.

1122
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:17,680
Speaker 2: Up in art seis Mattic. I didn't know.

1123
01:00:19,400 --> 01:00:21,080
Speaker 13: Now you do see that, now you do. It's good

1124
01:00:21,120 --> 01:00:24,440
Speaker 13: to see Aubrey in his hat and smile back in

1125
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:26,439
Speaker 13: the little war. Come over, we'll fill it home please,

1126
01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:30,080
Speaker 13: let's two yeah, this is.

1127
01:00:30,000 --> 01:00:33,200
Speaker 2: His studio in half an hour twenty two minutes, thirty

1128
01:00:33,200 --> 01:00:35,960
Speaker 2: two minutes. A very important subject, especially when it comes

1129
01:00:36,000 --> 01:00:42,439
Speaker 2: to size. Okay, gentlemen, that'll do rot into. Doctor Dingue

1130
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:45,200
Speaker 2: is the founding director of Tribe Africa Advisory twenty eight

1131
01:00:45,200 --> 01:00:50,160
Speaker 2: minutes after seven at Many Personal Finance with Warren ingram

1132
01:00:50,720 --> 01:00:53,280
Speaker 2: twenty four minutes now to eight at the time. One

1133
01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:55,880
Speaker 2: of the great sort of fears that seems to be

1134
01:00:55,880 --> 01:00:59,520
Speaker 2: emerging more and more. One of the great conversations is

1135
01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:02,919
Speaker 2: is there a bubble in international stock markets and particularly

1136
01:01:03,440 --> 01:01:06,600
Speaker 2: in the US. And Warren Ingramley, set of financial planner

1137
01:01:06,600 --> 01:01:11,280
Speaker 2: at Galileo Capital, has decided cheerfully, Warren I noticed that

1138
01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:14,560
Speaker 2: this is what we should talk about tonight. What to

1139
01:01:14,640 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 2: expect if the stock market crashes? You know, as always

1140
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:19,520
Speaker 2: your questions for Warren o double one double A three

1141
01:01:19,600 --> 01:01:23,000
Speaker 2: oh seven two two one four, four, six, five, six, seven,

1142
01:01:23,040 --> 01:01:25,120
Speaker 2: and we'll take your voice notes as well in seven

1143
01:01:25,160 --> 01:01:28,240
Speaker 2: two seven oh two one seven oh two Warren, Good evening.

1144
01:01:28,680 --> 01:01:30,520
Speaker 2: We spend a lot of time trying to work out

1145
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:33,920
Speaker 2: what's going to happen in the next year, and actually,

1146
01:01:33,960 --> 01:01:36,240
Speaker 2: as I suppose you remind us, we don't really know

1147
01:01:36,320 --> 01:01:36,560
Speaker 2: a thing.

1148
01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:40,760
Speaker 14: It's it's such a game we play, I think as

1149
01:01:40,800 --> 01:01:43,680
Speaker 14: an industry, but also as humanity. You know, we when

1150
01:01:43,720 --> 01:01:45,200
Speaker 14: we wake up every morning. I don't know if you

1151
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 14: do it.

1152
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:45,960
Speaker 2: I do it.

1153
01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:48,600
Speaker 14: I open my phone and I look at the weather

1154
01:01:48,640 --> 01:01:51,840
Speaker 14: app as if that's somehow reliable and it's actually going

1155
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:54,280
Speaker 14: to tell me what's really going to happen. And and

1156
01:01:54,320 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 14: we do the same thing with our investments. We listen

1157
01:01:56,920 --> 01:02:00,720
Speaker 14: to very clever strategists and economists and and they give

1158
01:02:00,800 --> 01:02:03,720
Speaker 14: us very detailed reasons as to why the markets are

1159
01:02:03,760 --> 01:02:05,680
Speaker 14: going to go up or down or whatever it is.

1160
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:09,040
Speaker 14: It there forecasting for the month and the year ahead,

1161
01:02:09,440 --> 01:02:12,240
Speaker 14: and somehow we feel better that, you know, we've been

1162
01:02:12,280 --> 01:02:15,640
Speaker 14: given this very clever sounding forecast, and now we know

1163
01:02:15,680 --> 01:02:20,080
Speaker 14: what's going to happen, so we value the certainty, and then,

1164
01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:23,120
Speaker 14: like our weather app, we get severely disappointed when things

1165
01:02:23,120 --> 01:02:27,280
Speaker 14: don't work out as promised. And you're right, we're living

1166
01:02:27,320 --> 01:02:30,200
Speaker 14: in a time nowst even where I mean, I'm so

1167
01:02:30,360 --> 01:02:33,400
Speaker 14: tired of talking about the bubbles, But that's what people

1168
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:35,840
Speaker 14: want to hear, is they want to understand are we

1169
01:02:35,880 --> 01:02:37,720
Speaker 14: in a bubble? Is it going to burst? When is

1170
01:02:37,720 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 14: it going to burst? You know what day exactly may

1171
01:02:39,800 --> 01:02:43,880
Speaker 14: be down to the minute. And then you know, kind

1172
01:02:43,880 --> 01:02:46,919
Speaker 14: of giving them the answer, which is for them deeply unsatisfying,

1173
01:02:46,960 --> 01:02:50,240
Speaker 14: where you say, gee, I don't know, you know, you

1174
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:53,640
Speaker 14: kind of leave them unsatisfied. And so I thought, how

1175
01:02:53,680 --> 01:02:57,560
Speaker 14: can we help people maybe get a parameter of certainty,

1176
01:02:57,760 --> 01:03:00,720
Speaker 14: in other words, if it crashes and and that's certainly

1177
01:03:00,720 --> 01:03:03,520
Speaker 14: not a forecast I'm making. I'm humble enough to say

1178
01:03:03,760 --> 01:03:05,480
Speaker 14: I don't have a clue what's going to happen tomorrow.

1179
01:03:05,600 --> 01:03:08,760
Speaker 14: Forget about twelve months time. But if it's going to

1180
01:03:08,800 --> 01:03:12,000
Speaker 14: crash tomorrow, what does that look like? And what should

1181
01:03:12,040 --> 01:03:14,400
Speaker 14: we prepare ourselves for do?

1182
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:17,360
Speaker 2: I mean, we talk about this as if it doesn't

1183
01:03:17,400 --> 01:03:19,960
Speaker 2: happen often, but do markets fall often? And I know

1184
01:03:20,760 --> 01:03:22,919
Speaker 2: at some point we need to remind ourselves that over

1185
01:03:23,000 --> 01:03:25,600
Speaker 2: the longer term, markets always grow.

1186
01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:30,560
Speaker 14: Markets do always grow, and they have always grown despite

1187
01:03:30,640 --> 01:03:33,920
Speaker 14: many predictions of calamity, and you know, the end of

1188
01:03:33,960 --> 01:03:39,680
Speaker 14: the world, somehow markets survive and continue to thrive. And

1189
01:03:41,000 --> 01:03:43,280
Speaker 14: we you know, we also know one of the good

1190
01:03:43,320 --> 01:03:46,080
Speaker 14: adages is that when America sneezes, the rest of the

1191
01:03:46,080 --> 01:03:49,360
Speaker 14: world catches a cold. And you know, that might not

1192
01:03:49,480 --> 01:03:52,040
Speaker 14: be as true for the dollar, for example, as it

1193
01:03:52,120 --> 01:03:55,040
Speaker 14: used to be, but it's certainly true for the American market.

1194
01:03:55,120 --> 01:03:57,920
Speaker 14: If the American market has a as a big crash,

1195
01:03:57,960 --> 01:04:00,680
Speaker 14: it will affect all other markets for a period of time.

1196
01:04:00,760 --> 01:04:04,600
Speaker 14: And so understanding what what happens with with big market

1197
01:04:04,600 --> 01:04:08,200
Speaker 14: crashes in America is key to understanding how we will

1198
01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:12,640
Speaker 14: be impacted. And in the US, the American market falls,

1199
01:04:12,840 --> 01:04:15,520
Speaker 14: and when I say falls, I mean if you measure

1200
01:04:15,520 --> 01:04:17,800
Speaker 14: it from the first of January to the end of December,

1201
01:04:18,280 --> 01:04:21,920
Speaker 14: it falls one out of every four years. So you know,

1202
01:04:22,280 --> 01:04:24,640
Speaker 14: you take a typical four or five year period and

1203
01:04:24,680 --> 01:04:27,160
Speaker 14: you would expect the market to have one year where

1204
01:04:27,280 --> 01:04:31,160
Speaker 14: where it is negative. And so it's actually rather common

1205
01:04:31,240 --> 01:04:33,880
Speaker 14: a quarter of the time you lose money by being

1206
01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:37,760
Speaker 14: in the market over a year. What's interesting is how

1207
01:04:37,800 --> 01:04:41,560
Speaker 14: surprised people are and and you know, whether it's you know,

1208
01:04:41,760 --> 01:04:44,280
Speaker 14: people like you and me when we're talking about this stuff,

1209
01:04:44,400 --> 01:04:47,640
Speaker 14: or you know investors who who just happen to have

1210
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:50,960
Speaker 14: money in the markets, or you know, professional investors always

1211
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:55,320
Speaker 14: seem surprised after a market fall, and the truth is

1212
01:04:55,360 --> 01:04:58,560
Speaker 14: that happens quite frequently. What's maybe more helpful is to

1213
01:04:58,640 --> 01:05:01,240
Speaker 14: understand what is that look click when the market is

1214
01:05:01,320 --> 01:05:05,120
Speaker 14: down over a year, and you know, typically it's going

1215
01:05:05,160 --> 01:05:07,800
Speaker 14: to be down about thirteen percent. So if you started

1216
01:05:07,800 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 14: the first of January's let's say we're on the first

1217
01:05:09,880 --> 01:05:12,720
Speaker 14: of January twenty twenty six, We've got a million round

1218
01:05:12,720 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 14: in the markets, but by the end of the year,

1219
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:18,200
Speaker 14: we would expect that to be down an average of

1220
01:05:18,440 --> 01:05:21,880
Speaker 14: thirteen percent. In other words, thirty onet of December, our

1221
01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:25,160
Speaker 14: million round is now worth eight hundred and seventy thousand round.

1222
01:05:25,440 --> 01:05:30,120
Speaker 14: So that's that's the typical movement of an average down year.

1223
01:05:30,360 --> 01:05:32,400
Speaker 14: And I think you know that that's a context we

1224
01:05:32,400 --> 01:05:36,040
Speaker 14: should be ready for. Is if there is a correction

1225
01:05:36,160 --> 01:05:37,720
Speaker 14: or a crash or whatever you want to call it.

1226
01:05:37,960 --> 01:05:40,360
Speaker 14: I know people don't like using the word crash, we

1227
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:42,960
Speaker 14: should talk about it, but that's what we would expect

1228
01:05:43,040 --> 01:05:45,720
Speaker 14: is that it's typically around thirteen percent a year.

1229
01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,240
Speaker 2: The four can be a lot bigger, can't I mean,

1230
01:05:51,080 --> 01:05:53,000
Speaker 2: you can have a four that's a lot worse than that.

1231
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:55,560
Speaker 2: I mean, particularly if you go back to the global

1232
01:05:55,560 --> 01:05:58,600
Speaker 2: financial crisis. I mean, wasn't more than that that was

1233
01:05:58,640 --> 01:06:00,160
Speaker 2: a big, big thing, though.

1234
01:06:01,480 --> 01:06:02,080
Speaker 8: It was.

1235
01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:05,520
Speaker 14: And maybe you know a lot of people are talking about,

1236
01:06:06,520 --> 01:06:09,560
Speaker 14: you know, the IT bubble in nineteen ninety nine up

1237
01:06:09,560 --> 01:06:11,680
Speaker 14: to the year two thousand, you know, because that's somehow

1238
01:06:11,760 --> 01:06:14,640
Speaker 14: related to tech, and now you know, the fear is

1239
01:06:14,640 --> 01:06:17,600
Speaker 14: that we're in another version of that. And and you

1240
01:06:17,600 --> 01:06:21,040
Speaker 14: know two thousand and the year two thousand and the

1241
01:06:21,080 --> 01:06:23,640
Speaker 14: two thousand and eight crash, you were looking at a

1242
01:06:23,680 --> 01:06:27,800
Speaker 14: fall of about forty percent over that one year period.

1243
01:06:28,120 --> 01:06:30,360
Speaker 14: So again, you start the year with a million and

1244
01:06:30,840 --> 01:06:33,480
Speaker 14: you end the year with just fractionally more than six

1245
01:06:33,560 --> 01:06:37,280
Speaker 14: hundred thousand by the end of December. So it is

1246
01:06:37,320 --> 01:06:41,520
Speaker 14: a big number. And what's frightening about that is not

1247
01:06:41,600 --> 01:06:45,080
Speaker 14: the fall. It's it's how badly people respond to that

1248
01:06:45,280 --> 01:06:47,880
Speaker 14: because what they do, and we do it on mass

1249
01:06:47,880 --> 01:06:50,439
Speaker 14: you know, we see it happen. But you know through

1250
01:06:50,480 --> 01:06:55,480
Speaker 14: thousands of investors that they they remain fairly logical, fairly

1251
01:06:55,480 --> 01:06:59,040
Speaker 14: irrational for the first five percent of the fall, then

1252
01:06:59,080 --> 01:07:02,400
Speaker 14: the next ten, the next fifteen, but somewhere along the line,

1253
01:07:02,760 --> 01:07:04,200
Speaker 14: you know, I don't know what the number is, twenty

1254
01:07:04,240 --> 01:07:07,400
Speaker 14: twenty five percent. People rarely start to panic and then

1255
01:07:07,600 --> 01:07:11,680
Speaker 14: they flood the market with their shares. They sell because

1256
01:07:11,720 --> 01:07:14,960
Speaker 14: they believe it will not recover. And of course, as

1257
01:07:14,960 --> 01:07:17,560
Speaker 14: you said, markets tend to go up over long periods

1258
01:07:17,560 --> 01:07:20,720
Speaker 14: of time, so they make a catastrophic mistake. But we

1259
01:07:20,800 --> 01:07:21,880
Speaker 14: do it, en mass.

1260
01:07:23,280 --> 01:07:26,480
Speaker 2: We need to talk about averages here, and averages are

1261
01:07:26,480 --> 01:07:29,560
Speaker 2: basically the key as opposed to investing, along with diversification.

1262
01:07:30,080 --> 01:07:33,360
Speaker 2: But over averages, I mean, we've had such a great

1263
01:07:33,440 --> 01:07:35,960
Speaker 2: year on the JC this year, and you kind of

1264
01:07:36,000 --> 01:07:39,120
Speaker 2: want that to continue, but we should realize that it

1265
01:07:39,200 --> 01:07:42,720
Speaker 2: is higher than average. What do averages tell us over

1266
01:07:42,760 --> 01:07:44,200
Speaker 2: the longer term.

1267
01:07:44,440 --> 01:07:46,040
Speaker 14: So I mean, I'll have to give you a real

1268
01:07:46,120 --> 01:07:48,040
Speaker 14: dad joke here, but you know, if you if your

1269
01:07:48,080 --> 01:07:50,600
Speaker 14: head is in the fire and your feet is in

1270
01:07:50,640 --> 01:07:53,040
Speaker 14: an ice block, you know the middle of your body

1271
01:07:53,160 --> 01:07:56,880
Speaker 14: is on average fine, but the ends are in real trouble.

1272
01:07:57,240 --> 01:08:00,360
Speaker 14: And so we need to talk about averages because hide

1273
01:08:00,400 --> 01:08:03,240
Speaker 14: a lot of noise and sometimes that they hide some

1274
01:08:03,600 --> 01:08:07,600
Speaker 14: potential dangers. And so when you're investing in shares and

1275
01:08:07,960 --> 01:08:10,760
Speaker 14: we're talking about a five year or ten year period,

1276
01:08:11,000 --> 01:08:14,200
Speaker 14: you would expect your your investment to grow by somewhere

1277
01:08:14,240 --> 01:08:17,720
Speaker 14: around ten to twelve percent. Yeah, that's the normal. But

1278
01:08:18,360 --> 01:08:20,400
Speaker 14: as you said, I mean, this year has been a

1279
01:08:20,400 --> 01:08:23,640
Speaker 14: fantastic year on the JC so way way more than that,

1280
01:08:23,680 --> 01:08:26,800
Speaker 14: probably double if not. You know, who knows what the

1281
01:08:26,880 --> 01:08:29,760
Speaker 14: last few weeks of the year delivers, but maybe triple that,

1282
01:08:30,479 --> 01:08:34,400
Speaker 14: and just a phenomenal time in the market. And so

1283
01:08:35,000 --> 01:08:38,040
Speaker 14: you know, we should be rightfully saying, you know that

1284
01:08:38,040 --> 01:08:41,839
Speaker 14: that's wonderful. We also need to know that it can't continue.

1285
01:08:41,840 --> 01:08:44,840
Speaker 14: The market just doesn't give you twenty to thirty percent

1286
01:08:44,960 --> 01:08:47,000
Speaker 14: year after year after year if it. If it did,

1287
01:08:47,000 --> 01:08:49,920
Speaker 14: none of us would be working. We'd all be professional investors.

1288
01:08:50,280 --> 01:08:54,120
Speaker 14: So we should anchor ourselves around that ten to twelve percent.

1289
01:08:54,240 --> 01:08:56,519
Speaker 14: And when the market gives you much more than that,

1290
01:08:56,920 --> 01:09:00,280
Speaker 14: we should be prepared to say, okay, we should look

1291
01:09:00,320 --> 01:09:02,880
Speaker 14: at this with a lot more concern, a lot more

1292
01:09:02,960 --> 01:09:07,679
Speaker 14: consideration for what might happen differently next year. The only

1293
01:09:07,760 --> 01:09:10,800
Speaker 14: guarantee that you have with markets is whatever happened over

1294
01:09:10,800 --> 01:09:14,280
Speaker 14: the last twelve months almost definitely won't repeat itself in

1295
01:09:14,360 --> 01:09:16,439
Speaker 14: exactly the same way over the next twelve months. So

1296
01:09:17,200 --> 01:09:20,160
Speaker 14: it's very unlucky that we get another, you know, big year.

1297
01:09:20,200 --> 01:09:22,280
Speaker 14: We might get a flat year, we might get it

1298
01:09:22,320 --> 01:09:24,960
Speaker 14: down yet. But what's not going to happen is we're

1299
01:09:25,000 --> 01:09:28,519
Speaker 14: not going to get a repetition of what happened. And

1300
01:09:28,920 --> 01:09:31,720
Speaker 14: maybe with these averages when we're talking about ten to

1301
01:09:31,760 --> 01:09:34,479
Speaker 14: twelve percent a year, you know, when you measure this

1302
01:09:34,600 --> 01:09:37,120
Speaker 14: over five years, what actually happens if you had to

1303
01:09:37,160 --> 01:09:39,240
Speaker 14: look at it from one year to the next, more

1304
01:09:39,320 --> 01:09:41,800
Speaker 14: likely your returns are giving you twenty percent, and then

1305
01:09:41,840 --> 01:09:44,799
Speaker 14: it's twenty eight percent, and then it's down fifteen percent,

1306
01:09:44,840 --> 01:09:47,880
Speaker 14: and up fourteen percent and then down one percent. And

1307
01:09:47,920 --> 01:09:49,880
Speaker 14: when you do the average, it looks fine, it looks

1308
01:09:49,880 --> 01:09:52,360
Speaker 14: like it's ten or twelve percent a year, but it's

1309
01:09:52,400 --> 01:09:54,599
Speaker 14: been a heck of a roller coaster ride in that time.

1310
01:09:55,360 --> 01:09:57,400
Speaker 2: I mean, what that really tells you is that actually,

1311
01:09:57,439 --> 01:09:59,000
Speaker 2: to invest over the long term, you have to be

1312
01:09:59,040 --> 01:10:02,000
Speaker 2: able to handle the volatility. In the short term. You

1313
01:10:02,040 --> 01:10:04,920
Speaker 2: have to expect volatility. You have to expect a loss

1314
01:10:04,920 --> 01:10:06,800
Speaker 2: of fifteen percent at some point.

1315
01:10:08,040 --> 01:10:10,640
Speaker 14: Exactly right. And if someone said to me, you know,

1316
01:10:10,680 --> 01:10:14,200
Speaker 14: give me a firm, firm forecast for next year, what

1317
01:10:14,240 --> 01:10:17,280
Speaker 14: are you expecting. I'm going to say that that over

1318
01:10:17,320 --> 01:10:20,160
Speaker 14: a typical one year period, the market is down by

1319
01:10:20,200 --> 01:10:23,519
Speaker 14: an average of thirteen percent and up by an average

1320
01:10:23,520 --> 01:10:26,720
Speaker 14: of twenty one percent. So your range of returns that

1321
01:10:26,760 --> 01:10:29,960
Speaker 14: you should expect over twenty twenty six is somewhere between

1322
01:10:30,000 --> 01:10:32,799
Speaker 14: positive twenty one all the way down to minus thirteen

1323
01:10:32,840 --> 01:10:36,200
Speaker 14: and somewhere in there. I would expect that the market

1324
01:10:36,240 --> 01:10:39,479
Speaker 14: would give us the return, And yes, it could be

1325
01:10:39,800 --> 01:10:41,679
Speaker 14: it could be higher, and it could be a lot lower.

1326
01:10:41,720 --> 01:10:44,479
Speaker 14: But that's the typical range of the markets over a

1327
01:10:44,520 --> 01:10:48,120
Speaker 14: normal one year period. And we shouldn't panic and freak

1328
01:10:48,160 --> 01:10:50,400
Speaker 14: out if that's what we see next year, where the

1329
01:10:50,479 --> 01:10:53,200
Speaker 14: JS he's down eleven percent and we think, you know,

1330
01:10:53,280 --> 01:10:55,160
Speaker 14: this has never happened before and it's the end of

1331
01:10:55,160 --> 01:10:57,080
Speaker 14: the world. It's just another year on the market.

1332
01:10:57,680 --> 01:11:00,800
Speaker 2: Okay. Your question for on Ingram voice notes on those

1333
01:11:00,800 --> 01:11:02,479
Speaker 2: seventy two seven or two one seven or two what

1334
01:11:02,560 --> 01:11:06,200
Speaker 2: to do if the markets do crash next year? Warren?

1335
01:11:06,640 --> 01:11:09,400
Speaker 2: What happens if there is a big crash, And I

1336
01:11:09,439 --> 01:11:13,439
Speaker 2: really do mean something like the global financial crisis. I

1337
01:11:13,479 --> 01:11:15,880
Speaker 2: don't want to, you know, think of nineteen twenty nine,

1338
01:11:15,920 --> 01:11:18,200
Speaker 2: because that I think I'm hoping was a once off,

1339
01:11:18,320 --> 01:11:21,559
Speaker 2: was something very different, but a major downturn. I mean,

1340
01:11:21,560 --> 01:11:23,720
Speaker 2: what can you expect in that in that scenario?

1341
01:11:24,920 --> 01:11:27,920
Speaker 14: Okay, so very quick history lesson the reason that we

1342
01:11:28,200 --> 01:11:31,400
Speaker 14: can all be fairly comfortable that nineteen twenty nine doesn't

1343
01:11:31,439 --> 01:11:35,200
Speaker 14: happen again is because the banks at that time were

1344
01:11:35,360 --> 01:11:38,479
Speaker 14: really unregulated. And if you were doing nothing wrong and

1345
01:11:38,520 --> 01:11:41,880
Speaker 14: you'd been paying your mortgage every month and the bank

1346
01:11:42,000 --> 01:11:45,160
Speaker 14: was in financial difficulty, you know, in nineteen twenty eight,

1347
01:11:45,200 --> 01:11:48,000
Speaker 14: for example, they could knock on your door and say, okay, Stephen,

1348
01:11:48,080 --> 01:11:50,360
Speaker 14: you know, we know you've been paying your mortgage every month,

1349
01:11:50,400 --> 01:11:52,519
Speaker 14: but we would like you to now repay the remaining

1350
01:11:52,920 --> 01:11:55,360
Speaker 14: seven million round of your bond by next week or

1351
01:11:55,400 --> 01:11:56,320
Speaker 14: retaking your house.

1352
01:11:56,600 --> 01:11:58,280
Speaker 2: Now, you know, that's what they could do.

1353
01:11:58,479 --> 01:12:01,040
Speaker 14: Nowadays, they're not allowed to do that. So there is

1354
01:12:01,080 --> 01:12:03,960
Speaker 14: a lot around the regulation of banks that will prevent

1355
01:12:04,080 --> 01:12:07,720
Speaker 14: that kind of really bad behavior. And so if we're

1356
01:12:07,720 --> 01:12:10,240
Speaker 14: in a big we're a big crash, let's say it

1357
01:12:10,320 --> 01:12:13,799
Speaker 14: is it's a forty percent year, what you should understand

1358
01:12:13,840 --> 01:12:18,479
Speaker 14: is that the big dips they last somewhere around eight

1359
01:12:18,520 --> 01:12:22,200
Speaker 14: months at the shortest to around twenty four months as

1360
01:12:22,320 --> 01:12:25,880
Speaker 14: a normal kind of longer period, and the average is

1361
01:12:25,920 --> 01:12:28,720
Speaker 14: around sixteen months. So just you know, a year and

1362
01:12:28,720 --> 01:12:31,439
Speaker 14: a quarter. And what that means is, if you start

1363
01:12:31,479 --> 01:12:34,160
Speaker 14: a year with a million, you ended you know, December

1364
01:12:34,680 --> 01:12:38,040
Speaker 14: at six hundred thousand, you know, it could take another

1365
01:12:38,160 --> 01:12:40,559
Speaker 14: year for your six hundred thousand to get back to

1366
01:12:40,640 --> 01:12:43,200
Speaker 14: a million, and that would be normal. That would be

1367
01:12:43,280 --> 01:12:47,439
Speaker 14: the thing you should anticipate. And a one or two

1368
01:12:47,520 --> 01:12:50,600
Speaker 14: year period where the markets are down might feel like

1369
01:12:50,640 --> 01:12:53,720
Speaker 14: a lifetime if you're looking at your statements every single day,

1370
01:12:53,960 --> 01:12:56,439
Speaker 14: but actually over five or a ten year period that

1371
01:12:56,600 --> 01:12:59,840
Speaker 14: that's a very small period of time and certainly is

1372
01:13:00,040 --> 01:13:03,400
Speaker 14: part of what's happened in the history. So again reminding

1373
01:13:03,400 --> 01:13:06,360
Speaker 14: people when we talk about expecting to get ten to

1374
01:13:06,400 --> 01:13:09,479
Speaker 14: twelve percent per year over five or ten years, that

1375
01:13:09,560 --> 01:13:12,320
Speaker 14: includes years where you see in your market portfolio go

1376
01:13:12,439 --> 01:13:13,599
Speaker 14: down forty percent.

1377
01:13:13,960 --> 01:13:16,680
Speaker 2: It's normal. You should be okay with that. So you

1378
01:13:16,760 --> 01:13:17,800
Speaker 2: have to just ride it out.

1379
01:13:19,960 --> 01:13:22,240
Speaker 14: It sounds like such an easy thing to say, just

1380
01:13:22,360 --> 01:13:24,400
Speaker 14: ride it after that guy and the radios just told

1381
01:13:24,439 --> 01:13:26,680
Speaker 14: us all to ride it out. Yeah, you know, be

1382
01:13:26,800 --> 01:13:29,760
Speaker 14: calm and carry on. This too shall pass. But it's

1383
01:13:29,880 --> 01:13:34,120
Speaker 14: exactly what we should do. And the truth is we're

1384
01:13:34,120 --> 01:13:37,120
Speaker 14: not wide psychologically to deal with this. We want to

1385
01:13:37,120 --> 01:13:40,800
Speaker 14: take action when when something happens, our fight or flight

1386
01:13:41,720 --> 01:13:44,439
Speaker 14: urges kick in and you know, and so we want

1387
01:13:44,479 --> 01:13:48,280
Speaker 14: to do something to prevent more losses and actually take

1388
01:13:48,360 --> 01:13:52,360
Speaker 14: action to correct the problem and regain the money that

1389
01:13:52,400 --> 01:13:55,760
Speaker 14: we've lost. And one of the things to understand is

1390
01:13:56,160 --> 01:13:59,479
Speaker 14: you can't anticipate the crash, and there is certainly nothing

1391
01:13:59,479 --> 01:14:03,880
Speaker 14: you can do to anticipate the recovery, and recoveries happened

1392
01:14:04,120 --> 01:14:07,240
Speaker 14: very quickly, and so you know, we could be all,

1393
01:14:07,360 --> 01:14:09,360
Speaker 14: you know, sort of doom and gloom and worrying about,

1394
01:14:09,479 --> 01:14:11,240
Speaker 14: you know, the end of the world because the market's

1395
01:14:11,280 --> 01:14:14,439
Speaker 14: been going down for twelve months and then all of

1396
01:14:14,479 --> 01:14:16,040
Speaker 14: a sudden, we wake up one day and we go

1397
01:14:16,120 --> 01:14:17,960
Speaker 14: hang on, you know, for the last two months, it's

1398
01:14:17,960 --> 01:14:20,519
Speaker 14: actually been going up, and it's been going up very strongly.

1399
01:14:20,920 --> 01:14:23,240
Speaker 14: And there's been so much bad news in the world

1400
01:14:23,320 --> 01:14:26,519
Speaker 14: that we haven't paid attention to share prices. So the

1401
01:14:26,560 --> 01:14:30,680
Speaker 14: news and the markets are very different. And so I

1402
01:14:30,680 --> 01:14:33,559
Speaker 14: would say, if we're in this next year. And we're

1403
01:14:33,600 --> 01:14:36,839
Speaker 14: sitting in October and everything's down, you know, forty percent,

1404
01:14:37,000 --> 01:14:39,200
Speaker 14: and you ask me what we're going to do. I

1405
01:14:39,240 --> 01:14:41,400
Speaker 14: would be saying to you, we just ride it out.

1406
01:14:41,439 --> 01:14:43,959
Speaker 14: If anything, Let's not look at our statements so regularly,

1407
01:14:44,000 --> 01:14:46,840
Speaker 14: and let's focus on, you know, positive things like the

1408
01:14:46,840 --> 01:14:49,439
Speaker 14: weather and the spring box and whatever else that we can.

1409
01:14:49,720 --> 01:14:53,120
Speaker 14: Because the market will do what it does, it will recover. Indeed,

1410
01:14:53,200 --> 01:14:55,639
Speaker 14: we're talking to Warren Ingram tonight. There's a question Warren

1411
01:14:55,960 --> 01:14:58,559
Speaker 14: for you from Emily. She says, Hi, I'm supposed to

1412
01:14:58,640 --> 01:15:01,200
Speaker 14: host my family for Chris Lunch this year. They're usually

1413
01:15:01,240 --> 01:15:03,960
Speaker 14: twelve people who come to the family Christmas. We wrote

1414
01:15:04,000 --> 01:15:07,120
Speaker 14: tate houses to spread the load. My problem is actually

1415
01:15:07,160 --> 01:15:10,240
Speaker 14: don't have enough money to do a proper lunch for everyone.

1416
01:15:10,320 --> 01:15:12,320
Speaker 14: What should I do? That's from Emily. We'll have an

1417
01:15:12,360 --> 01:15:14,800
Speaker 14: answer for you, Emily after this nine minutes, not eight.

1418
01:15:16,560 --> 01:15:19,080
Speaker 3: The Money Show Steve Crotes is brought to you by

1419
01:15:19,160 --> 01:15:23,320
Speaker 3: Abscess the IB Discover the latest trends shaping digital assets

1420
01:15:23,320 --> 01:15:27,679
Speaker 3: across Africa. Download the as Africa Digital Assets Insights twenty

1421
01:15:27,720 --> 01:15:28,360
Speaker 3: twenty five.

1422
01:15:29,880 --> 01:15:34,080
Speaker 2: For The Money Show, Personal Finance with Warren Ingram seven

1423
01:15:34,160 --> 01:15:37,400
Speaker 2: minutes to eight and Emily's question for Warren. I'm supposed

1424
01:15:37,439 --> 01:15:39,720
Speaker 2: to host twelve people who come to my house. We

1425
01:15:39,760 --> 01:15:42,040
Speaker 2: wrote tate houses, but I don't have enough money to

1426
01:15:42,040 --> 01:15:44,839
Speaker 2: do a proper lunch. It's a difficult one, Warren, especially

1427
01:15:44,880 --> 01:15:46,559
Speaker 2: when other people have hosted you in the past.

1428
01:15:48,439 --> 01:15:52,320
Speaker 14: It's so typical of this time of year where people

1429
01:15:52,560 --> 01:15:57,640
Speaker 14: are you know, financially pressurized, and they feel shame or

1430
01:15:57,680 --> 01:16:01,160
Speaker 14: embarrassed because they can't you know, the presence for their

1431
01:16:01,560 --> 01:16:06,639
Speaker 14: their nieces and nephews or potentially even their own children

1432
01:16:06,720 --> 01:16:09,360
Speaker 14: or their grandchildren, and and or in situation like this

1433
01:16:09,479 --> 01:16:11,920
Speaker 14: where where Emily you know, needs to put on the

1434
01:16:11,920 --> 01:16:14,400
Speaker 14: spread and and she just doesn't have the money.

1435
01:16:14,880 --> 01:16:15,080
Speaker 7: Uh.

1436
01:16:15,160 --> 01:16:18,040
Speaker 14: And unfortunately, a lot of the time, you know, people

1437
01:16:18,320 --> 01:16:20,800
Speaker 14: resort to debt to to to deal with this, you know,

1438
01:16:21,040 --> 01:16:24,040
Speaker 14: instead of facing the problem head on, they you know,

1439
01:16:24,160 --> 01:16:26,280
Speaker 14: they go on they load the credit card and and

1440
01:16:26,360 --> 01:16:29,439
Speaker 14: set themselves up very badly for for for debt during

1441
01:16:29,479 --> 01:16:33,520
Speaker 14: a very expensive time of year. And and so my

1442
01:16:33,520 --> 01:16:37,280
Speaker 14: my suggestion, Emily is is to be clear, is to

1443
01:16:37,320 --> 01:16:40,120
Speaker 14: be kind, you know, I would be you know, speaking

1444
01:16:40,120 --> 01:16:42,080
Speaker 14: to the to the to the family. They are your

1445
01:16:42,080 --> 01:16:45,000
Speaker 14: family and just being honest. You know, I don't have

1446
01:16:45,040 --> 01:16:47,160
Speaker 14: the money. I don't I know it's my turn and

1447
01:16:47,200 --> 01:16:49,519
Speaker 14: I'm supposed to be able to do this, but I

1448
01:16:49,640 --> 01:16:54,360
Speaker 14: simply can't. And and then you know, find the solutions together,

1449
01:16:54,439 --> 01:16:56,840
Speaker 14: you know. So sometimes it's a case of asking everybody

1450
01:16:57,240 --> 01:16:59,880
Speaker 14: to to bring up you know, bring a bit, you know,

1451
01:17:00,400 --> 01:17:02,960
Speaker 14: a dish or whatever it is, whatever they can contribute

1452
01:17:03,000 --> 01:17:06,240
Speaker 14: to the meal. And I think, you know, often in

1453
01:17:06,280 --> 01:17:09,320
Speaker 14: this situation, we worry about what everyone else is thinking.

1454
01:17:09,360 --> 01:17:12,320
Speaker 14: And I can tell you they're probably dreading next year

1455
01:17:12,400 --> 01:17:14,519
Speaker 14: because it's their turn and they don't have the money.

1456
01:17:14,840 --> 01:17:17,559
Speaker 14: And so being the first person to be clear about

1457
01:17:17,560 --> 01:17:19,839
Speaker 14: what's going on might take a whole lot of pressure

1458
01:17:19,840 --> 01:17:22,880
Speaker 14: of everybody. And frankly, catering for twelve people is a

1459
01:17:22,960 --> 01:17:25,040
Speaker 14: very expensive exercise. I'm not sure I want to be

1460
01:17:25,040 --> 01:17:27,800
Speaker 14: doing that on my time off. So maybe spread the load.

1461
01:17:28,200 --> 01:17:31,600
Speaker 14: The one is the one suggestion, or secondly, you know,

1462
01:17:31,840 --> 01:17:34,320
Speaker 14: tell everybody and see what they come up with. And

1463
01:17:34,880 --> 01:17:37,880
Speaker 14: you never know what people value in a situation like.

1464
01:17:37,840 --> 01:17:40,880
Speaker 2: This, and just the honesty is always the thing. Okay,

1465
01:17:40,960 --> 01:17:43,720
Speaker 2: So it's just a terms of the main comment. We're

1466
01:17:43,800 --> 01:17:47,599
Speaker 2: worried about markets possibly crashing next year. Is there anything

1467
01:17:47,600 --> 01:17:50,080
Speaker 2: we can really do right now to sort of deal

1468
01:17:50,120 --> 01:17:51,800
Speaker 2: with our worry? I don't know if I need to

1469
01:17:51,800 --> 01:17:56,400
Speaker 2: ask you as as a psychologist or as an investor, both.

1470
01:17:56,240 --> 01:17:58,400
Speaker 14: Because I think that this is where we get to

1471
01:17:58,439 --> 01:18:01,479
Speaker 14: the art of investing rather than the science. The science

1472
01:18:01,520 --> 01:18:04,839
Speaker 14: tells us that we can measure the valuation of markets,

1473
01:18:04,840 --> 01:18:08,519
Speaker 14: and the valuation says that the tech sector in America

1474
01:18:08,760 --> 01:18:12,720
Speaker 14: is phenomenally expensive. There isn't a way to justify those valuations,

1475
01:18:13,160 --> 01:18:15,559
Speaker 14: and when you look at valuations in the rest of

1476
01:18:15,600 --> 01:18:18,840
Speaker 14: the world that they are much more compelling. So even

1477
01:18:18,880 --> 01:18:22,280
Speaker 14: the jac after a very good year is still better

1478
01:18:22,360 --> 01:18:25,519
Speaker 14: value than the American tech sector. And if you go

1479
01:18:25,560 --> 01:18:28,479
Speaker 14: across the globe, that answer is true for all emerging

1480
01:18:28,560 --> 01:18:32,000
Speaker 14: markets and potentially some of the other developed markets. So

1481
01:18:32,160 --> 01:18:34,960
Speaker 14: the science tells us that we should allocate more money

1482
01:18:35,040 --> 01:18:39,000
Speaker 14: to the better value markets and reduce our allocation to

1483
01:18:39,160 --> 01:18:43,680
Speaker 14: the expensive markets. So very simply, you shouldn't be overexposed

1484
01:18:43,720 --> 01:18:45,880
Speaker 14: to the tech sector in America now, you should be

1485
01:18:45,920 --> 01:18:49,840
Speaker 14: more exposed to emerging markets. But the art of this

1486
01:18:50,040 --> 01:18:53,479
Speaker 14: is that the American market can carry on running next year.

1487
01:18:53,560 --> 01:18:56,559
Speaker 14: It can do very well so don't sell out of everything,

1488
01:18:57,560 --> 01:18:59,879
Speaker 14: out of all of your tech shares. Reduce your allocation

1489
01:19:00,120 --> 01:19:03,800
Speaker 14: to tech and increase your allocation to other sectors. Make

1490
01:19:03,840 --> 01:19:06,799
Speaker 14: sure you're not overexposed to the stock market in general,

1491
01:19:07,120 --> 01:19:09,080
Speaker 14: and make sure you've got a good spread between South

1492
01:19:09,080 --> 01:19:11,960
Speaker 14: Africa and overseas, because we don't know what's going to

1493
01:19:11,960 --> 01:19:14,439
Speaker 14: happen next year, and it could be another great year

1494
01:19:14,439 --> 01:19:16,759
Speaker 14: for the JC and maybe a terrible year for American

1495
01:19:17,000 --> 01:19:19,640
Speaker 14: which case you don't want to be all global and

1496
01:19:19,680 --> 01:19:20,240
Speaker 14: no local.

1497
01:19:21,040 --> 01:19:22,920
Speaker 2: I suppose what it also means is you need to

1498
01:19:23,000 --> 01:19:26,719
Speaker 2: just think about what the scenarios are and who would

1499
01:19:26,720 --> 01:19:29,320
Speaker 2: be affected. And I mean, I suppose you talk about

1500
01:19:29,320 --> 01:19:31,640
Speaker 2: the evaluations for tech shares. It suddenly makes sense to

1501
01:19:31,680 --> 01:19:33,920
Speaker 2: me that the shares that are the most expensive will

1502
01:19:33,920 --> 01:19:37,240
Speaker 2: probably fall the quickest, because that's actually the share that

1503
01:19:37,920 --> 01:19:42,320
Speaker 2: really has grown so quickly over a short period of time. Yeah.

1504
01:19:42,479 --> 01:19:45,200
Speaker 14: Unfortunately, What we do, though, is its human nature is

1505
01:19:45,200 --> 01:19:47,240
Speaker 14: that we look at the thing that's done incredibly well,

1506
01:19:47,320 --> 01:19:49,840
Speaker 14: and we almost form an emotional attachment to that, and

1507
01:19:49,880 --> 01:19:51,880
Speaker 14: we say, you know, why on earth would I sell

1508
01:19:51,880 --> 01:19:54,280
Speaker 14: in Nvidia after it's done so well for me over

1509
01:19:54,320 --> 01:19:55,880
Speaker 14: the last two or three years. It's going to carry

1510
01:19:55,880 --> 01:19:58,679
Speaker 14: on doing that forever. And you know, why on earth

1511
01:19:58,680 --> 01:20:00,599
Speaker 14: would I go and buy south a FA and shares

1512
01:20:00,640 --> 01:20:03,280
Speaker 14: when they've been so terrible for the last decade. And

1513
01:20:03,280 --> 01:20:05,320
Speaker 14: and you know, if you'd made that decision at the

1514
01:20:05,360 --> 01:20:07,840
Speaker 14: start of last year, and you know, it would have

1515
01:20:07,840 --> 01:20:10,880
Speaker 14: been a very bad call to to to avoid the jas.

1516
01:20:11,400 --> 01:20:13,519
Speaker 14: So so I think you need to be clear with

1517
01:20:13,600 --> 01:20:17,000
Speaker 14: yourself that you know, when you've done very well, you know,

1518
01:20:17,320 --> 01:20:19,840
Speaker 14: take profits. You know, don't be afraid to to to

1519
01:20:19,960 --> 01:20:22,120
Speaker 14: sell some of your exposure to the things that have

1520
01:20:22,160 --> 01:20:25,160
Speaker 14: done incredibly well for you. And if they continue to

1521
01:20:25,160 --> 01:20:27,920
Speaker 14: do well, that's fine, because you still have an allocation

1522
01:20:28,040 --> 01:20:30,360
Speaker 14: to them. But but you should be you should be

1523
01:20:30,400 --> 01:20:32,880
Speaker 14: reallocating to the cheaper parts of the of the world

1524
01:20:33,000 --> 01:20:36,040
Speaker 14: markets and and enjoy that ride over the next two

1525
01:20:36,160 --> 01:20:38,840
Speaker 14: or three years. That might not deliver very well next year,

1526
01:20:39,160 --> 01:20:42,639
Speaker 14: but low valuations are a great protection against the market crash.

1527
01:20:42,840 --> 01:20:45,559
Speaker 14: If something's already cheap and it's and it's a good

1528
01:20:45,600 --> 01:20:47,880
Speaker 14: business or it's a good index, it won't get a

1529
01:20:47,920 --> 01:20:51,000
Speaker 14: heck of a lot cheaper compared to something that's phenomenally expensive.

1530
01:20:51,680 --> 01:20:54,839
Speaker 2: Warren Ingram, thank you very much. Indeed, sertivied financial planner

1531
01:20:55,120 --> 01:20:59,680
Speaker 2: at Galileo Capital, probably worth already just getting ready to

1532
01:20:59,720 --> 01:21:02,280
Speaker 2: share this podcast. I'm sure they are one or two

1533
01:21:02,360 --> 01:21:05,880
Speaker 2: jury investors that you know. Maybe just prepare them for

1534
01:21:06,320 --> 01:21:08,120
Speaker 2: what they might be a bit nervous of war. And

1535
01:21:08,120 --> 01:21:08,840
Speaker 2: thank you very much.

1536
01:21:08,840 --> 01:21:13,639
Speaker 3: Indeed, the Money Shows Feeble Protest is brought to you

1537
01:21:13,720 --> 01:21:18,080
Speaker 3: by abscess cib Discover the latest trends shaping digital assets

1538
01:21:18,120 --> 01:21:22,479
Speaker 3: across Africa. Download the as Africa Digital Assets Insights twenty

1539
01:21:22,520 --> 01:21:23,160
Speaker 3: twenty five.

1540
01:21:24,240 --> 01:21:26,479
Speaker 2: Well, in the US, things looking a little more positive

1541
01:21:26,479 --> 01:21:30,160
Speaker 2: than they were all really about interest rate expectations. Finally tomorrow,

1542
01:21:30,240 --> 01:21:33,120
Speaker 2: of course, we will know what the US Fed is

1543
01:21:33,160 --> 01:21:35,040
Speaker 2: going to do tomorrow evening. I should say that Dow

1544
01:21:35,120 --> 01:21:37,240
Speaker 2: Jones at the moment down point one eight percent, the

1545
01:21:37,320 --> 01:21:39,599
Speaker 2: Nastek up point one eight in s, and P five

1546
01:21:39,640 --> 01:21:44,439
Speaker 2: hundred up point one two. Interesting comment though from the

1547
01:21:44,560 --> 01:21:48,000
Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump today and Rout's reporting that he

1548
01:21:48,040 --> 01:21:53,200
Speaker 2: said basically that he would support anyone who would immediately

1549
01:21:53,240 --> 01:21:55,920
Speaker 2: cut interest rates. That would be a requirement essentially, so

1550
01:21:56,000 --> 01:21:59,800
Speaker 2: someone who believes that they should immediately cut interest rates

1551
01:21:59,840 --> 01:22:02,840
Speaker 2: in would be a requirement for that person to lead

1552
01:22:02,920 --> 01:22:07,519
Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve, and essentially that basically means he's looking

1553
01:22:07,520 --> 01:22:11,080
Speaker 2: for someone who will cut rates, and there's no sort

1554
01:22:11,080 --> 01:22:14,360
Speaker 2: of question of how difficult the economic argument is, but

1555
01:22:14,479 --> 01:22:17,280
Speaker 2: you would throw the political sort of argument on top

1556
01:22:17,320 --> 01:22:19,479
Speaker 2: of this, and suddenly it does start to get very

1557
01:22:19,600 --> 01:22:22,600
Speaker 2: very messy. In the United States, the politics around the

1558
01:22:22,680 --> 01:22:25,280
Speaker 2: US Federal Reserve is getting very very intense. I do

1559
01:22:25,360 --> 01:22:27,240
Speaker 2: think that is going to be one of the big

1560
01:22:27,280 --> 01:22:30,120
Speaker 2: issues leading us into next year, and how markets respond

1561
01:22:30,160 --> 01:22:33,040
Speaker 2: to that is probably going to be an even bigger issue.

1562
01:22:33,120 --> 01:22:35,479
Speaker 2: We'll be back tomorrow. Good evening. It's eight o'clock