1 00:00:00,520 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Let's walk with the Tom mis Clemens Mania Tela on 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:04,960 Speaker 1: seven two. 3 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:09,480 Speaker 2: So we continue with our focus on the big developing 4 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 2: story this morning around the seas fire that America and 5 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 2: Iran has agreed to. I want us to get some reaction, 6 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 2: and we'll start with reaction from the US. I had 7 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 2: a conversation this morning before we started the show, pre 8 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: recorded it because it was eight hours in America. I 9 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 2: spoke to David Smith, who is the bureau chief in Washington, 10 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:35,879 Speaker 2: d C. For the Guardian newspaper, to give us some 11 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 2: perspectives on how America is responding, Americans themselves, the Democrats, Republicans, 12 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 2: and how everybody else is responding to this sea is 13 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 2: fire that's been agreed to between America and Iran. Here's 14 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 2: the how that conversation went. David, thank you so much 15 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 2: for making time for us. 16 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: Good morning, Good morning. 17 00:00:55,480 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 2: So we moved yesterday from Donald Trump threat to wipe 18 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:06,199 Speaker 2: out a whole civilization last night if Iran doesn't open 19 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 2: that Strait of Hormuz to now I'm waking up here 20 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 2: in South Africa to the news that there is a 21 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 2: ceasefire of swords in an agreement to pause on the 22 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 2: attacks until negotiations continue in two weeks. 23 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 1: What's been the reaction in America. 24 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 3: I think there's a huge sense of relief, because for 25 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 3: some time there many people really feared this was the 26 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 3: start of something quite apocalyptic, judging by Donald Trump's very 27 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,839 Speaker 3: dire threats, and there were, you know, there was great 28 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 3: concerns just how far would he go here? And you 29 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 3: actually even saw some Democrats calling for Trump's removal from 30 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 3: office and questioning his mental health. But there's still a 31 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 3: great deal of skepticism about Trump's handling of this war 32 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 3: and a feeling that he may have been out maneuvered 33 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 3: by Iran strategically, diplomatically, politically, militarily, and so on. And 34 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 3: some of those critics, for example, saying that under this ceasefire, 35 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 3: Iran is effectively going to control the straight of hor Mows, and. 36 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 4: In many ways that actually gives. 37 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:27,240 Speaker 3: It more control than it had two months ago before 38 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 3: this war even began. And there are still Democrats saying 39 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 3: Trump's conduct in US twenty four hours is cause for 40 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 3: him to lose his job. 41 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, and before we look at possibly what's likely to 42 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:45,079 Speaker 2: be under negotiations over the next two weeks, you mentioned 43 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 2: that there are some critics of Trump who are saying 44 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 2: he's been out maneuvered here by Iran strategically speaking, And 45 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:55,240 Speaker 2: I mean it's very difficult to disagree with that, because 46 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,359 Speaker 2: when you look at the strategy of the uwers for 47 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 2: this war, it looks like they've ndered a weapon to 48 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 2: Iran that is even more usable than a nuclear weapon. 49 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:08,919 Speaker 2: So that Strait of Homus that chokes up the global 50 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 2: oil supply and disrupts the global economy is now something 51 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 2: that Iran uses as power. So what's interesting to me, David, 52 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 2: is the US strategy in the beginning was nuclear weapons. 53 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 2: We don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon, But 54 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 2: it looks like the war is now shifted to you 55 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:28,399 Speaker 2: have to open the Strait of Hormuz. 56 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 4: That's right. 57 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 3: There's been a lot of shifting objectives and targets. Remember, 58 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 3: right at the beginning, Donald Trump talked about the Iranian 59 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 3: people rising up and overthrowing the regime. And we've heard 60 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 3: less of that in recent weeks. And you know, the 61 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 3: US is still claiming there has been a regime of 62 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 3: change of sorts because numerous leaders have been killed, but nevertheless, 63 00:03:57,520 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 3: in fact, the same regime stays in place and of course, 64 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 3: while the Ayatollah was killed, his son took over, and 65 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 3: many would argue, actually, the Readi leadership is more radical 66 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 3: than it was, so that goal was not met. I'm 67 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 3: sure the White House will claim it has set back 68 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 3: Iran's ability to obtain a nuclear weapon, which was the 69 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 3: starting point for this, and then be the main reason. 70 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 4: Again, that's hard to demonstrate. 71 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 3: And I think there will be some who argue around 72 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,720 Speaker 3: it's still capable of pursuing that in the coming. 73 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 4: Years, and. 74 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 3: Those critics will wish the US and around had just 75 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:49,919 Speaker 3: stuck to the nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama. And 76 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 3: then yes, on top of all of that, the straight 77 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:58,239 Speaker 3: of hor moves seems to be more, not less, under 78 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 3: Iran's control than it was previously, So again is a 79 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 3: bit of an. 80 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 4: Own goal for the US well. 81 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 3: Around the ability to sponsor terrorist groups in the region 82 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 3: have been curtailed. Again, I think that the jury's out 83 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 3: on that. Not a great deal of evidence that's been achieved. 84 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 3: And meanwhile, in the midst of all this, the whole 85 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:28,839 Speaker 3: war has been a massive blow to America's reputation around 86 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 3: the world. 87 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really quite extraordinary because even with the Strait 88 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:37,719 Speaker 2: of Hormuz for forty seven years of tensions between the 89 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 2: US and Iran. I mean, it's never really been closed 90 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:44,479 Speaker 2: even though the tensions have existed between the two countries, 91 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 2: because America always pushed for for the freedom of navigation 92 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 2: has always been important to America. And now Iron knows 93 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 2: just how powerful that Strait of Hormuz is in negotiating. 94 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:03,039 Speaker 2: So here's a question, now, David, what do we understand 95 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:08,119 Speaker 2: about the relationship the US president has with Pakistan Because 96 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 2: it seems like they're the ones that were able to 97 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 2: get to him. They suggested, please extend the deadline, let's 98 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 2: allow for two weeks of negotiations. And who knows. Some 99 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 2: people are suggesting it's the US who went to Pakistan 100 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 2: and ask them please come out and ask for an 101 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 2: extension because Donald Trump knows that he really continued with 102 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 2: these threats to wipe out an entire civilization that was 103 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 2: going to have some incredible consequences. 104 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 3: To your point, if you just look at the social 105 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 3: post by Trump on Sunday railing about the straight up 106 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 3: Hormus and using foul language, it did feel like someone 107 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 3: who's losing control. 108 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 4: And lashing out. 109 00:06:54,920 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 3: And yeah, hard to know exactly how and why Pakistan 110 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 3: became such a central player in this. We certainly know 111 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 3: that Trump had a fairly close relationship with Pakistan over 112 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 3: the past year, and Trump claimed credit for. 113 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 4: Averting a war between. 114 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 3: India and Pakistan, one of his long list of wars 115 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 3: he likes to say he stopped happening. And I remember 116 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 3: at that time Pakistani officials lavishing praise on Trump. And 117 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 3: so they rose to the challenge here and have played 118 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 3: an important role. And hard to know whether the US 119 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 3: prompted that. Now Pakistan is saying they've invited the US 120 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 3: and Iranian delegations for talks, and there's Lambabad on Friday. 121 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 3: I noticed the US already pouring some doubt on wther 122 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 3: that's going to happen. But it was some welcome mediation 123 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 3: at a moment when this whole thing, when he seemed 124 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 3: to be spiraling out of control. 125 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, and the US President said in that social media 126 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 2: post that and I quote you, we've already met and 127 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 2: exceeded all military objectives. One of those objectives according to 128 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 2: the US, because I mean, I thought the objective was 129 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 2: one clearly regime change, which Israel wanted so badly, with 130 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 2: the support of America, but to America was more concerned 131 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 2: about is Iran in a tech I mean, is Iran 132 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 2: a threat to America through its you know, possible nuclear 133 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:47,959 Speaker 2: weapon or enrichment. So when the US President said says 134 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 2: we've exceeded all military objectives, what does this mean, because, 135 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 2: as you said, no evidence yet of some kind of 136 00:08:55,600 --> 00:09:00,439 Speaker 2: regime change the US wanted. But also to have they 137 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 2: obliterated their entire nuclear infrastructure. 138 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 3: Well that's a great question because and again it's so 139 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 3: hard to know who to trust. Of course, last year 140 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:18,200 Speaker 3: the US launched military strikes and claimed Iran's nuclear capability 141 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 3: had been obliterated, and yet months later they launched an 142 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:28,319 Speaker 3: entire new war over it. I'm sure the White House 143 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 3: is going to stay Iran has been set back tremendously 144 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 3: on its ability to enrich uranium and pursue nuclear weapons. 145 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 3: But hard to take anything they say without some pinch 146 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 3: of salt. 147 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 4: They will also. 148 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 3: Say the Iranian military has been devastated and the US 149 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 3: gained full control of the skies. But there have been 150 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:05,199 Speaker 3: reports of Iran's ability to quite quickly dig out missile 151 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 3: launchers from the rubble and pursue fresh strikes and Throughout 152 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 3: this war, we've seen Iran still firing missiles into Israel 153 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 3: and other countries in the region. Of course, just last week, 154 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 3: after we've been told that the US controls the skies completely, 155 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 3: a US fighter jet was actually shot down, and of 156 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 3: course there had to be a dramatic rescue of its crew. 157 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 3: So there have been several incidents that suggest the US 158 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 3: underestimated Iran's capability here militarily, and that might still include 159 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 3: the nuclear aspect. 160 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they underestimated them strategically as well. The 161 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 2: fact that the US president was not warned about the 162 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 2: possibility of that Strait of Hormuz being weaponized, I mean 163 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 2: that really speaks volume about the intelligence that's been getting 164 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 2: to him, or lack thereof. Let's talk now about that 165 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:05,439 Speaker 2: this ten point versus the fifteen point plan, because Iran 166 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 2: says we've presented a ten point plan, the US President 167 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 2: says we've got a fifteen point plan. In fact, in 168 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:16,199 Speaker 2: his social media post, President Trump said this ten point 169 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 2: plan from Iran, that he believes that it is a 170 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 2: workable basis on which to negotiate. But when I was 171 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 2: listening to the Iranian foreign minister talking about what is 172 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 2: included in that ten point plan, and I just wonder 173 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 2: if it's going to be practical to America. They want 174 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 2: America to understand that they will continue with enrichment. They 175 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 2: want America to understand they will continue to have total 176 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 2: control of the strait of Hormus, and I just wonder 177 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 2: what that will mean for on the American side. Is 178 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 2: it even practical what Iran is asking for? And do 179 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 2: we know what's in Trump's fifteen point plan? 180 00:11:55,880 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it's all great questions. I think the 181 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 3: straight up hor mows. It almost just seems to depend 182 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 3: on Trump's mood, because of course he's gone back and 183 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 3: forth on that issue. 184 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 4: There were moments last week when he was saying, you know, we've. 185 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 3: Done the hard work Western allies, that other countries should 186 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 3: go to the straight off hormus and just take the oil, 187 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 3: and just just just got out as if he was 188 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 3: washing his hands of the matter and arguing that the 189 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 3: US has such energy independence these days, it doesn't need 190 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:33,199 Speaker 3: the straight of hormuse itself so much. 191 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 4: Other other countries are affected. 192 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:40,840 Speaker 3: That raises the prospect I think that he might just 193 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:45,440 Speaker 3: get bored of this issue, and well, we shall have 194 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 3: to see notably, that Iranian ten point plan includes US 195 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:54,439 Speaker 3: military withdrawal from the Middle East. 196 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 2: From the Middle East, I mean, how do you do 197 00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 2: you think that is something that Trump would find acceptable. 198 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 2: I mean, that would mean the US military they must leave, 199 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 2: what even Qatar, one of the biggest military bases there 200 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:10,199 Speaker 2: I have in the Middle East. And what would that 201 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 2: mean then for America? And what would it also mean 202 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 2: for the security of Israel. 203 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 3: Indeed, yeah, I think I'm utterly unrealistic and not going 204 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:24,360 Speaker 3: to happen, even though, of course, again there are moments 205 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 3: when Trump plays the isolationists. 206 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 4: And talks about bringing troops home. 207 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:34,200 Speaker 3: But as a practical reality, yeah, just that that is unthinkable. 208 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:39,960 Speaker 3: It appears to be an Iranian wish list, a maximalist approach. 209 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to get all of those 210 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 3: points by any means, And I guess this is what 211 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 3: the future negotiation is going to have to be. I mean, ultimately, 212 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 3: both countries are, of course eager to claim victory, especially 213 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:59,839 Speaker 3: for their own domestic audiences, and we're already seeing a 214 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 3: flavor of that on both sides. Celebrations in Tehran, boll 215 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:08,679 Speaker 3: stones from the White House about what a triumph this 216 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 3: is for Trump's diplomacy, and I think you know, what 217 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 3: we know about Trump is that he will quickly move 218 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 3: on to the next issue. He will leave negotiations to others. 219 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 3: He will just deal in the headlines of what he 220 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 3: claims as a great victory, and that will be that. 221 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 2: What are Americans saying? The last time we spoke to you, 222 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 2: you told us that the polls, various polls in the 223 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 2: US that were being done, were showing that most citizens 224 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 2: don't know why this war is happening. They were not 225 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 2: in support of this war. And in fact, I remember 226 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 2: when in the past when America went into Iran and 227 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 2: they asked Americans how they feel about the war. I mean, 228 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 2: it was like eighty percent or seventy percent or so 229 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 2: of support even when the US went to Iraq. But 230 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 2: that support has dramatically shifted and gone done now with 231 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 2: America going into Iran. Are the polls still consistent? Are 232 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 2: US citizens still expressing their unhappiness with the US going 233 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 2: into war with Iran? 234 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 4: Yes, this war remains very unpopular. 235 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 3: I think both ethical reasons of what it means for 236 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 3: America internationally and the fate of the Iranian people, but 237 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 3: also very pragmatic domestic reasons of people see it driving 238 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 3: up the price of fuel for their cars and the 239 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 3: cost of fertilizer for farmers and other products, just having 240 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 3: a negative impact on the economy. I think, you know, 241 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 3: millions of people who voted against Trump in the last 242 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 3: election horrified by this war and very much opposed to it. 243 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 3: Obviously on Trump's own side. Among the Republicans, it's more 244 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 3: complicated there. I think older voters, especially especially including those 245 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 3: who have long been hostile to Iran, they're broadly supportive 246 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 3: of this, and it's notable those for example, who watch 247 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 3: Rupert Murdoch's Fox News being told night after night that 248 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 3: this is a very important idea, And there's lots of 249 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 3: backing there for Trump and what he's doing. But there 250 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 3: are even on the right, there are younger voters. They 251 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 3: might have backed Trump, but they thought he would be 252 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 3: an isolationist keep them out. 253 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 4: Of foreign wars. There's the kind of wild rumors. 254 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 3: Among younger men about a military draft, so it's unpopular 255 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 3: with them, and that's reflected with some of the right. 256 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 4: Wing influencers such as Tucker Carlson. 257 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 3: And Megan Kelly who've been speaking out against this war, 258 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 3: and some of them even even joining the anxieties regarding 259 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 3: From's mental health. 260 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:06,120 Speaker 2: Right now, David Smith, thank you so much for joining us. 261 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 2: He is the Washington bureau chief for the Guardian newspaper. 262 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:14,879 Speaker 2: Thank you, yeah, thanks so that that is the the 263 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 2: reaction we got from America speaking to David Smith, who 264 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 2: is lived to us from Washington, d C. In America, 265 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 2: and I thought we should just get some analysis of 266 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 2: these movements that we have seen over the last twenty 267 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:28,919 Speaker 2: four hours. 268 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,120 Speaker 1: Your voice, your questions, your. 269 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 4: Morning Radio with Clement Manateela. 270 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 2: It's twenty four minutes now before eleven outlock. We continue 271 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:46,159 Speaker 2: our coverage of the developing story coming out of the 272 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:46,840 Speaker 2: Middle East. 273 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 1: The ceasefire that has. 274 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 2: Been agreed to by both Iran and the United States. 275 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 2: So over the next two weeks there won't be a 276 00:17:56,240 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 2: text on Iran by the US. Iran has also said 277 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 2: we also will stop our defensive attacks, and in these 278 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 2: two weeks we're going to see the Strait of Hormuz opened, 279 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 2: you know, but that is going to be coordinated. Any movement, 280 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:16,359 Speaker 2: they're going to be coordinated by Iran's armed forces. So 281 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 2: we had a conversation in the previous half hour with 282 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 2: David Smith, who was live to us from America in Washington, 283 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 2: d C. He's the editor or the bureau chief of 284 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 2: the Guidian newspaper in Washington, d C. And he was 285 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 2: telling us how Americans are responding to this latest developments 286 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 2: and helping us understand where the Trump administration's thinking is at, 287 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 2: not just now, but also with all the different threats 288 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 2: and the different deadlines that President Trump issued and missed 289 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 2: and moved over the last couple of days. What I 290 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 2: want us to do now is to understand what international 291 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 2: law says, because because there have been there's been a 292 00:18:56,359 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 2: lot of debate about intent. So if you are saying 293 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 2: and threatening to wipe out an entire civilization, what does 294 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,920 Speaker 2: the Geneva Convention actually say? Does it matter that it's 295 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 2: just a threat and you haven't followed through on it, 296 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 2: and what happens when you follow through on it. We've 297 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 2: invited Professor Henny Stradham, who is the professor of international 298 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 2: law at the University of Johannesburg to help us understand 299 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 2: international law much better in the context of what's happening 300 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,640 Speaker 2: in Iran. Thank you so much, always great to chat 301 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 2: to you. 302 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 5: Good morning, Yeah, good day and good morning to the listeners. 303 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 2: So I want to start with perhaps the Geneva Convention 304 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 2: and what it actually says, because often we hear about 305 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 2: deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure and how that is considered 306 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:54,120 Speaker 2: a war crime. There must be that doctrine of proportionality. 307 00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 2: How does it work like when it comes to even 308 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 2: the laws of wars. What's allowed and what's not allowed. 309 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, one of the fundamental principles is the principle of distinction, 310 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:10,400 Speaker 5: meaning that in terms of in terms of an armed conflict, 311 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 5: the party to that conflict must adhere to that principle, 312 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 5: meaning that they cannot attack civilian civilians themselves or civilian objects. 313 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:22,960 Speaker 5: So they have to maintain a distinction what is a 314 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 5: military object and what is not a military object. The 315 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 5: problem is that some civilian objects may be sort of 316 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 5: dual use objects. Let me give you an example. If 317 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 5: there is a strategic bridge over a river, it is 318 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:44,159 Speaker 5: used for civilian traffic, but is also used to transport 319 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 5: military equipment, soldiers, etc. So the moment that usually civilian 320 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:54,440 Speaker 5: object is used also for military purpose, it may be attacked. 321 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 5: So this is the one thing that we have to 322 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:00,679 Speaker 5: keep in mind. But if the evidence is it's purely 323 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 5: a civilian object and the destruction will then you know, 324 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 5: lead to a war crime being committed. 325 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 1: I see. 326 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 2: So if it's a civilian infrastructure and it is used 327 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 2: during the war, and let's say, for instance, because in Gaza, 328 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 2: for instance, at some point Israel was claiming that Hamas 329 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 2: was operating from certain hospitals, So is that then justification 330 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 2: if there's evidence to that effect to then attack that 331 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 2: that that infrastructure, even though it's a civilian infrastructure. 332 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, you're quite correct with the example that you're using. 333 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:49,240 Speaker 5: So that is why you cannot use civilians as a 334 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 5: shield or civilian objects as a shield to escape and 335 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 5: attack or prevent you being a target. So that in 336 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 5: itself is a war crime. Use civilian objects or civilians 337 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:05,879 Speaker 5: as a shield. So, and the moment that takes place, 338 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:12,919 Speaker 5: then that facility may be attacked because the military objective 339 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 5: of the people that you assault as your targeting are 340 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 5: there on that spot and in that space, and that 341 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 5: makes it possible to attack them. 342 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:28,640 Speaker 2: Is there any onus on the attacker to prove that 343 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 2: in fact humans were used as a shield, or for instance, 344 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 2: that a public hospital or whatever civilian infrastructure was used 345 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 2: to in the war or is it a matter of 346 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 2: as a country. If you believe, if you are the 347 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:46,000 Speaker 2: one fighting, and you believe that the group or a 348 00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 2: government you're fighting is using civilian infrastructure to fight back 349 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 2: or to attack you, then that's that's enough. You know 350 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 2: that they're not need to be like some kind of 351 00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 2: evidence to that effect. 352 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:03,920 Speaker 5: I believe although it is taking place or speculation, certainly 353 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 5: not enough you need you make There's an obligation to 354 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 5: make an assessment of a target where it is, who 355 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:15,199 Speaker 5: is there, and does it constitute a military target. So 356 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,119 Speaker 5: that must be based on hard events, on factual evidence, 357 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 5: and it's part of the assess and assessment of any 358 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:25,439 Speaker 5: military strategy, and especially when when you are sort of 359 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 5: bombing place as sending missiles, et cetera. And it's only 360 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 5: that there is you know, sufficient or reasonable evidence that 361 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 5: that is the case that you can attack. But there's 362 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 5: another principle that comes into play. Then that's a principle 363 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:42,640 Speaker 5: of proportionality. If the damage that you cause is disproportional 364 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 5: to the to the military objectives, then it may also 365 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 5: constitute a walk crime. So for instance, in the examples 366 00:23:54,480 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 5: that you used, there are you know, arious number of 367 00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 5: civilian skilled in dis proportional to the to the to 368 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:09,200 Speaker 5: the military target that you are aiming to wipe out. Then, 369 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 5: depending on the facts, that might even in those circumstances, 370 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:14,400 Speaker 5: constitute a war crime. 371 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 2: Okay, So in that case then my question is about 372 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:23,400 Speaker 2: consequence management. So if we have seen international law being 373 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 2: violated by Israel in Gaza, what are the consequences then 374 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 2: for that? Because it almost flows like that their loopholes here. 375 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 2: You know, anyone can always claim that, well, I targeted 376 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 2: those civilians because amongst them where these terrorists, as they've 377 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 2: said before, and that's why we had to even target 378 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 2: a civilian infrastructure, because we know that they were operating there. 379 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 2: But when you ask for evidence, it's not always that 380 00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,359 Speaker 2: that evidence gets evidence gets presented. So my question is 381 00:24:55,800 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 2: what are the consequences then if countries violate Internet personal law? 382 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, what actually should take place in those circumstance stances? 383 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 5: There should be a proper investigation, for instance by the 384 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:14,199 Speaker 5: International Criminal Court to get the evidence to decide we 385 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,640 Speaker 5: have a case here of war crime being permitted or not, 386 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,200 Speaker 5: and that assessment by the court can only or by 387 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 5: the prosecutor can only be made when there is concrete 388 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 5: evidence to that effect, so that we have we have 389 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:36,199 Speaker 5: you know, judiciaries and bodies like that then have the 390 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 5: obligation to investigate. And there's also an obligation under the 391 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 5: Geneva Conventions where there's a reasonable evidence available that a 392 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,400 Speaker 5: war crime has been permitted, that it must be investigated 393 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 5: by the parties and bring those accountable to justice. 394 00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 2: So how powerful are those institutions the profit because I mean, 395 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 2: as you have seen, we are now talking about what's 396 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,560 Speaker 2: happened in Gaza, and yet there's still not been any 397 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:11,359 Speaker 2: accountability whatsoever. The ICJ case is still ongoing. Hopefully that 398 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,359 Speaker 2: leads to some level of accountability. But even when you 399 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,959 Speaker 2: look at the ICC for instance, so warn't of arrest 400 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:22,400 Speaker 2: on Natanyau but America as well, they're not as signatary 401 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 2: to their home statute. So what happens then if they 402 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:30,920 Speaker 2: continue to do as they please or violate international law 403 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 2: is the ICJ? Then what becomes an institution? And how 404 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 2: powerful and influential is it? Because it almost feels like 405 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 2: Israel and America are not even swayed by that court. 406 00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 2: They don't think it's powerful enough to make them do 407 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:49,159 Speaker 2: anything they don't want to do. 408 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 4: Yeah. 409 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,320 Speaker 5: You see, the courts, as you mentioned, do not that 410 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 5: as a power to enforce that I depend on enforcement 411 00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,880 Speaker 5: by the members of the Court of their own statute 412 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,639 Speaker 5: for instances in a cauise of So that is the 413 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,919 Speaker 5: enforcement mechanism that there should be to, for instance, to 414 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 5: execute a warrant of arrest and commence proceedings in any 415 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,239 Speaker 5: country under the domestic law of that country, if the 416 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 5: courts have urisnection. So that's one way. It's not necessarily 417 00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,240 Speaker 5: the case that it should be done by the ITC. 418 00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 5: But then it depends on whether the country willing and 419 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 5: able to do it, to have the mechanism and the 420 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 5: political world to do so. So if we take all 421 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 5: these instances as you mentioned into account, it is clearly 422 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:40,199 Speaker 5: whether we link in this whole criminal justice concept that 423 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 5: we have, and that is the enforcement issue. If you 424 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:46,720 Speaker 5: do that as the support of the other countries being 425 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:52,359 Speaker 5: members of that constitutive instrument, then you have a problem. 426 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 5: The court is then in a very sort of you know, 427 00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:55,879 Speaker 5: precarious position. 428 00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean we have We've had a case in 429 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 2: so that would go the Sudanese president of Al Bashir 430 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,439 Speaker 2: who had a warrant of arrest against him, and he 431 00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:10,240 Speaker 2: still was allowed to set foot here and we let 432 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 2: him escape. Thank goodness to our courts who have since 433 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:19,280 Speaker 2: come out and criticized government's position there. I want you 434 00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 2: to help us understand intent now, because often we hear of, Okay, 435 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:28,040 Speaker 2: this is a war crime and it was deliberate and 436 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:32,640 Speaker 2: committed with intent. What does that mean, whether it's intent 437 00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,280 Speaker 2: to commit a war crime, intent to commit genocide? Because 438 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 2: a lot of people are pointing to Trump's tweets and 439 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:42,360 Speaker 2: are saying, look what he has done. He says, I 440 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:47,960 Speaker 2: want to wipe out an entire civilization. If he follows 441 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 2: through with the attacks, would that constitute intent. 442 00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 5: In that example that you guys, certainly because they were 443 00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 5: first a threat to do it and sort of, you know, 444 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 5: give it evidence of the preparedness to wipe out a 445 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,600 Speaker 5: whole society. And if he follows through that it's a 446 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:10,680 Speaker 5: clear case of intent of direct intent, because there is 447 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:15,480 Speaker 5: no indication that he has the objective to make a 448 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 5: distinction between military and civilian targets. It's just a sort 449 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,920 Speaker 5: of blanket use of violence to wipe out the whole 450 00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:28,920 Speaker 5: society or the civilians in the country included. So that 451 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:34,200 Speaker 5: will be very helpful for the court year to determine 452 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,240 Speaker 5: direct intent, because that is one of the elements that 453 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 5: you have to prove in the case of genocide under 454 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:43,280 Speaker 5: the Genocide Convention. So it is not something that happens 455 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 5: as collateral damage. It must be clear that your intention 456 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 5: was to wipe out that community or parts there off. 457 00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 2: Really really, really fascinating stufff thank you so much for 458 00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 2: joining us. Professor Henny Stratum is the professor International Law 459 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 2: at the University of Johannes Back from the townships to 460 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 2: the suburbs and everywhere in between. 461 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:10,640 Speaker 4: The league. 462 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 1: It's the seven or two Empty and Small Business Awards 463 00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:15,880 Speaker 1: in and now on Prime Media Plus. 464 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 4: Let's talk shop. 465 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:22,239 Speaker 2: It's ten minutes now before eleven o'clock. Let's bring in 466 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:28,360 Speaker 2: Professor Christopher Isika, who's a professor of politics and international relations, 467 00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:32,440 Speaker 2: now to reflect on we now understand international law and 468 00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:35,880 Speaker 2: how far it goes, but do we actually understand the 469 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 2: positions that the two countries have put forward here and 470 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:43,280 Speaker 2: what is the likelihood that we are likely to see 471 00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 2: a kind of a peace deal at the end of 472 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,320 Speaker 2: these negotiations after two weeks. 473 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,880 Speaker 1: Professor Izika, thank you for making time for us. 474 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 6: Good morning, Good morning, Clemens, and thank you for having me. 475 00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 2: So let's start with the bands that have been put 476 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 2: on the table by both these countries, Iran and America. 477 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 2: When I first looked at them early this morning, I thought, 478 00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:14,280 Speaker 2: I don't see America agreeing to Iran's demands, and equally so, 479 00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:18,680 Speaker 2: I don't see Iran agreeing to America's demands. And just 480 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:21,880 Speaker 2: to refresh the memory of our listeners or some that 481 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 2: may not have heard me, explain what the demands are. 482 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:30,040 Speaker 2: Reports in America indicate that Trump's fifteen point plan includes 483 00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:36,719 Speaker 2: dismantling of Iranian nuclear facilities, a permanent ban on nuclear development, 484 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:41,080 Speaker 2: the opening of the Strait of Homus, limitations on ballistic missiles. 485 00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:45,040 Speaker 2: And Iran on the other side, they've got a ten 486 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:48,480 Speaker 2: point plan, and that includes the withdrawal of the US 487 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 2: forces from the Gulf region, a continued control of the 488 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:55,479 Speaker 2: Strait of Homus, the cessation of war on all fronts, 489 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,960 Speaker 2: including in Lebanon, the acceptance of Iran's uranium in Richmond program, 490 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:04,160 Speaker 2: and of course, the lifting of all sanctions against Iran. 491 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,440 Speaker 2: When you listen to that, professor, is it realistic from 492 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 2: both ends? 493 00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:17,760 Speaker 6: Well, both both of them are actually maximalists in in 494 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:23,360 Speaker 6: what their expectations are. But I think there are For 495 00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:30,280 Speaker 6: us to have this ceasefire that we're seen, there had 496 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:35,080 Speaker 6: to be some some kind of convergences, even if temporary, 497 00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,960 Speaker 6: and one of those convergences would be about the strait 498 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,960 Speaker 6: off umus, which it Ran has shown capability to do, 499 00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 6: even if it's for a short while. Right, So that's 500 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 6: the convergence, and that's that's big for the United States 501 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,880 Speaker 6: right now. I'm sure they can then talk their way through. 502 00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 6: So despite the differences we see in in in in 503 00:32:54,760 --> 00:33:00,000 Speaker 6: in them, both plans reveal some areas of overlap particle 504 00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:04,760 Speaker 6: lally in terms of economic development, national security, and then 505 00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:09,320 Speaker 6: the emphasis on on on cultural you know, identity. 506 00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,240 Speaker 1: Mm hmm, what what what? 507 00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 2: What do you think of because some some experts are 508 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:19,360 Speaker 2: describing this as like a fragile cy is fire. It's 509 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 2: a term we often hear a lot. What do you 510 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:27,960 Speaker 2: think though, having seen how the two countries have communicated 511 00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:30,320 Speaker 2: with each other, I mean there has been lots of 512 00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:35,440 Speaker 2: trust because previously, when negotiations were underway, a text suddenly 513 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,320 Speaker 2: continued without warning. Do do you think that this time 514 00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 2: around the dynamics are different and they call for both 515 00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:47,880 Speaker 2: parties to take seriously this conversation because both of them 516 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:51,880 Speaker 2: can see that they will suffer consequences if this these 517 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:53,440 Speaker 2: are texts continue. 518 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,080 Speaker 6: Absolutely and that and that that's that's the incentive for 519 00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,360 Speaker 6: both of them to to to have this discussion. Now, 520 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:05,720 Speaker 6: the policical trust question is very important. You know, America 521 00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:08,799 Speaker 6: seems to have lost that trust because. 522 00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,319 Speaker 1: Of the dodginess. 523 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,239 Speaker 6: You know, clear acting in bad seat when you are 524 00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,000 Speaker 6: talking with someone and then you know, may while you're 525 00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:19,520 Speaker 6: planning to bound a statements that irrespreedible of what the 526 00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:23,960 Speaker 6: discussions were. Your decision was already made, right, So that's 527 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:28,440 Speaker 6: a big fact. But like you said again, the realization 528 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,400 Speaker 6: on both sides and on the American side that Iran 529 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 6: can hurt America's interests not just in the region, but 530 00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:39,480 Speaker 6: even directly if you look at Americans are receiving the 531 00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:43,160 Speaker 6: war at home and what that means for Trump's standing 532 00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:48,080 Speaker 6: in the politics of the country. That's an incentive. But 533 00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 6: you know, the the the the assessment of the currency 534 00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,920 Speaker 6: fire as as fragile. 535 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:56,440 Speaker 1: It's correct. 536 00:34:56,520 --> 00:35:01,200 Speaker 6: It is fragile, and it is very transactional and and 537 00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:07,560 Speaker 6: conditional on on the scale of Humos remaining open. The 538 00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:10,840 Speaker 6: fragility is in the fact that one we also have 539 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:16,120 Speaker 6: another bad seait in Tallycuto, which is Israel, whose interest 540 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:20,719 Speaker 6: in sea fire is not cannot be guaranteed. It's to 541 00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,800 Speaker 6: serve their interests more. I would say that was interested 542 00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:28,320 Speaker 6: more to continue the world because that is keeping politically relevant. 543 00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,080 Speaker 6: And of course he has the greatest plan which he 544 00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:36,239 Speaker 6: has been hoping to achieve by destabilizing the region, fragmenting 545 00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:41,000 Speaker 6: it in order to emerge the strongest right. So all 546 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,880 Speaker 6: of these things mean that if Israel, for example, was 547 00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:49,200 Speaker 6: to continue to bomb Lebanon, Iran may be forced to 548 00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,839 Speaker 6: respond in some form and that can take us back 549 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:58,440 Speaker 6: to square one. So continued strikes in other theaters and 550 00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:03,400 Speaker 6: that lingering point of me stross means that escalation remains, 551 00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:07,799 Speaker 6: you know, high, and any incident of any sort you know, 552 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:13,360 Speaker 6: could quickly collapse the arrangement or less unless mister Trump 553 00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,720 Speaker 6: is able to exercise agency like he did in in 554 00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:21,719 Speaker 6: in in the last attack in June last year and call. 555 00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:23,439 Speaker 1: To order. 556 00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm just asked, I'm just thinking now because 557 00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,879 Speaker 2: I remember exactly that moment when he was so frustrated 558 00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,919 Speaker 2: the US president and even used the F word. Well, 559 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,120 Speaker 2: he's been using those a lot of late. But the real, 560 00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:40,839 Speaker 2: the real issue back then was that there was discussions 561 00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:43,360 Speaker 2: that were taking place, and then here you have Israel 562 00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 2: continuing to attack. So how do you then keep Israel 563 00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,040 Speaker 2: in check this time around, because as you say, in fact, 564 00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 2: I did see even some reports when I woke up 565 00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:56,680 Speaker 2: this morning on CNN that just as this ceasefire was announced, 566 00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:00,800 Speaker 2: there were still missiles that were being a change between 567 00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:04,680 Speaker 2: Iran and Israel. So if if Iran has made this 568 00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:08,000 Speaker 2: commitment on paper that for two weeks we stopped their text, 569 00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,759 Speaker 2: we opened the straight off our moves, I haven't seen 570 00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,160 Speaker 2: any commitment that Israel makes, and I wonder if that 571 00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,879 Speaker 2: becomes important given that should they continue with the text, 572 00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:21,560 Speaker 2: then Iran may walk away from the from the negotiations. 573 00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:23,120 Speaker 1: Yeah. 574 00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:29,760 Speaker 6: Yeah, Look, it's also correct that those those exchanges of 575 00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:35,560 Speaker 6: fire we saw was because of the the communications you know, 576 00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:39,359 Speaker 6: gap between when the fire was announced as something that 577 00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:44,400 Speaker 6: was immediate effect and some of those you know exchange 578 00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,640 Speaker 6: that had already been set in motion. So it's when 579 00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:50,640 Speaker 6: you when you fire and missile, for example, you can't 580 00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:53,279 Speaker 6: call it back if it is done just a few 581 00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:57,719 Speaker 6: minutes even second sometimes before the announcement. So that's that's 582 00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:02,040 Speaker 6: possibly an explanatory fact for that. But again to Israel 583 00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:08,160 Speaker 6: has shown it's disregard for you know, peace agreements or ceasfires. 584 00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:10,440 Speaker 6: We've seen that in the lebor Non case, we seen 585 00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,920 Speaker 6: that in the Gaza case, where they can decide on 586 00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:15,919 Speaker 6: the wind to to to simply break this is wire 587 00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,320 Speaker 6: and not in apples. And like I said, this frustrated 588 00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:22,160 Speaker 6: mister from the last time out. And look, the easiest 589 00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,600 Speaker 6: way for him to do to do this is to 590 00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:29,200 Speaker 6: withdraw or threasing to withdraw, because it's very good at 591 00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:32,720 Speaker 6: threatening to withdraw. The support that America is to Israel. 592 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:36,480 Speaker 6: America essentially funds ISSS military, the military aggression we see 593 00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:39,440 Speaker 6: from its largely funded by the United States, and also 594 00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:41,960 Speaker 6: of course also the police GALP protection that they give 595 00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:46,240 Speaker 6: it at the UNS Curity Council. So if America really 596 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:52,640 Speaker 6: serious about wanting to ren Israel in they could. There 597 00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:56,080 Speaker 6: are other factors that can limit that. The the the 598 00:38:55,800 --> 00:39:01,560 Speaker 6: the the you know impart of the a part in 599 00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:06,320 Speaker 6: the US in terms of internal politics, and of course 600 00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:08,760 Speaker 6: they have talked about there has been talking about corruption, 601 00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:14,000 Speaker 6: the Feam five and you know Israel. But having a 602 00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:18,480 Speaker 6: hold on mister Trump that could have made him to 603 00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:20,960 Speaker 6: to take this kind of decision without listening to his 604 00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:25,360 Speaker 6: own intelligence shifts, including the Pentagon right. So there are 605 00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:29,239 Speaker 6: number of factors that play. But giving his ego and 606 00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:33,440 Speaker 6: what this would mean for his presidency and his preferends 607 00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:35,560 Speaker 6: for wanting to be known as a peace president who 608 00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,960 Speaker 6: would not go to war, which is all now been filled, 609 00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:42,040 Speaker 6: I think that he wanted to servy himself somewhat from 610 00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:45,160 Speaker 6: all of this and exercise of agency, and it is possible. 611 00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:48,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. 612 00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,759 Speaker 2: Professor Christopher is thank you for making term for us. 613 00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:55,000 Speaker 2: Is the professor of Politics and International Relations at the 614 00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:56,799 Speaker 2: University of Pretoria.