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Speaker 1: There has been surprised on the Israeli and US side

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Speaker 1: on a few fronts, the degree to which Iran could

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Speaker 1: maintain the capacity to hit back, but especially that Iran.

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Speaker 2: Had a strategy.

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Speaker 1: It's operationalizing its strategy, and it's a strategy that has.

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Speaker 2: Achieved considerable successes.

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Speaker 1: Now we keep having President Trump say no one would

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Speaker 1: expect that they were going to hit the Gulf States.

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Speaker 1: Everyone expected it, and that really raises concerns. Obviously not

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Speaker 1: at the seriousness or coherence of the individual occupying the

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Speaker 1: White House today.

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Speaker 2: I don't think we needed this war to.

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Speaker 1: Question that, But what is the information environment in which

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Speaker 1: he's working? Have you purged, kicked out down Grey did

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Speaker 1: isolated so much of your own expertise and analysts, you know,

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Speaker 1: your basic intel people that you genuinely didn't know what

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Speaker 1: was going to happen. The Golf were pretty sure what

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Speaker 1: was going to happen. Iran broadcast what was going to happen.

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Speaker 1: The Golf States didn't want this war. They pushed back

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Speaker 1: against it. They are now on the horns of an

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Speaker 1: acute dilemma because Iran is striking, but they have also

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Speaker 1: seen how little their interests count for how little purchase

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Speaker 1: they have when it impacts their existential interests, how little

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Speaker 1: purchase they have on US policy, especially when compared to Israel,

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Speaker 1: which which obviously kind of drove without suggesting there's no

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Speaker 1: such thing as US agency which, because there is which.

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Speaker 2: But it was Israel that drove the US into this.

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Speaker 1: So I think there's been surprised at the effectiveness of

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Speaker 1: the Iranian strategy.

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Speaker 2: Israel was euphoric when this war began.

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Speaker 1: Not only did it have massive public support, but there

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Speaker 1: was a sense that finally America is going to fight

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Speaker 1: our Iran war for US with US and with this

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Speaker 1: American firepower, we're good. A month in, there's still public support,

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Speaker 1: but there's frustration, resignation to what is happening Israelis. And

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Speaker 1: again this isn't me doing some special pleading. It was

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Speaker 1: their government that started the war. And look at what

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Speaker 1: they've done to Gaza, and look what they're still doing

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Speaker 1: to Gars, are doing in Lebanon. But Israelis have spent

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Speaker 1: four weeks running to the shelters, not really getting sleep.

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Speaker 1: Schools have been shut, so their lives have been significantly disrupted.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they expected Iran to have that kind

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Speaker 1: of capacity, and then they go and extend a second

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Speaker 1: front in Lebanon, as you mentioned in your opening, their

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Speaker 1: Leicester and go after his ballar, put troops in on the.

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Speaker 2: Ground, massive aerial attacks. And they had been told for

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Speaker 2: the last year in a.

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Speaker 1: Bit since the uh the ceasefire. Again, Israel continued operating

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Speaker 1: militarily even after the so called sea but after Ceas

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Speaker 1: five eleven, and they were told his Bolla was a

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Speaker 1: spent force.

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Speaker 3: Also, the miscalculation around popular support for regime change in Iran.

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Speaker 3: The expectation was you decapitate the senior leadership structure, you

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Speaker 3: create enough of a vacuum and people will rise up.

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Speaker 3: But they're not going to rise up if firstly you're

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Speaker 3: going to target a school in which innocent children have died,

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Speaker 3: and you're going to target utilities and power infrastructure and

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Speaker 3: water infrastructure. That's not really the arene in which you

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Speaker 3: would then see popular uprising against the Iranian regime. What

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Speaker 3: we've seen is actually the opposite, people saying well, let

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Speaker 3: me defend my country first and afterwards we will deal

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Speaker 3: with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard afterwards.

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Speaker 1: No one should make light of how Iran has treated

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Speaker 1: its own people.

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Speaker 2: What happened during the protests at the start of the year.

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Speaker 1: However, the leap from there to imagining that the regime,

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Speaker 1: the government in Iran, the governing forces don't carry popular support,

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Speaker 1: and then.

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Speaker 2: The illogical extrapolation.

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Speaker 1: That if you go after the country, and if you

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Speaker 1: state that your intention is to degrade the country's capacity,

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Speaker 1: and if it's America that you use this AI programming

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Speaker 1: very little human input, extremely dangerous, that then attacks the school,

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Speaker 1: if it's Israel, openly boasting about the civilian infrastructure it

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Speaker 1: was targeting.

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Speaker 2: We now seen.

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Speaker 1: Medical facilities, schools, universities. By the way, no one's surprised

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Speaker 1: after living through the genocidal campaign against Palestinians in Gaza.

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Speaker 2: But that has precisely the effect that you said. It

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Speaker 2: unites most people because it tells them that this.

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Speaker 1: Is about attacking our country. So this doesn't become about

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Speaker 1: this regime or that regime. It becomes a national course.

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Speaker 1: It becomes standing up for ourselves. And you see, you

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Speaker 1: know a lot of videos from different parts of Iran,

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Speaker 1: precisely those areas that said, oh, this ethnic group is

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Speaker 1: being marginalized, is there and they're making this statement.

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Speaker 2: You know, if there's an issue here and for.

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Speaker 1: Many there is of how we are governed and how

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Speaker 1: we are not listened to.

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Speaker 2: That's our issue to deal with that. That's not an

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Speaker 2: issue you deal with bombs from the sky.

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Speaker 1: And you had these appalling comments from Nata Yoto and

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Speaker 1: sometimes from the American leadership as well.

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Speaker 2: Look to the skies, we're therefore, you know, look to the.

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Speaker 1: Skies, you're bombing everyone.

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Speaker 2: It's a It suggests either naivety or premeditated malice.

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Speaker 3: Daniel Levy is the president of the US middlest of

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Speaker 3: East Project. But Daniel, what have we not been focusing on.

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Speaker 3: We've been very focused on oil and fuel being transported

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Speaker 3: through the straight up or moves that's been shut down.

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Speaker 3: We're feeling at here in South Africa with a fuel

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Speaker 3: increase expected on Wednesday. But what have we been missing

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Speaker 3: from the story when it comes to Israeli expansionism into Lebanon?

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Speaker 3: What have we been missing in Gaza? What we have

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Speaker 3: been missing in continued settling encroachment in the Wist Bank.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so first let me speak to that first point

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Speaker 1: you're feeling in South Africa. The economic expectations here in

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Speaker 1: the UK, as with everywhere, have been totally thrown off kilter.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how many weeks away we are from

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Speaker 1: fuel rationing in this country.

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Speaker 2: You know, each day you'll see something you go oh wow, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Every Wednesday has been declared a national holiday in Sri

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Speaker 1: Lanka until further notice to consult. So the knock on

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Speaker 1: effect too, as usual, a host of countries in fuel, food,

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Speaker 1: fertilizer prices, People who were never asked about this war,

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Speaker 1: countries who if we actually had a multilateral architecture and

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Speaker 1: it had to say, would never have voted for this

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Speaker 1: to happen in the first place.

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Speaker 2: So I think, first of all, one just has to bear.

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Speaker 1: That in mind in terms of the US, And you know, Leicester,

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Speaker 1: when we read the history of how empires have fallen

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Speaker 1: decades ago or centuries ago, you read that history and

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Speaker 1: you go, oh, yes, they took on too much here,

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Speaker 1: and they bumped ump against an effective resistance force that

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Speaker 1: they didn't account for, or they had a slightly wacky

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Speaker 1: leader who overreached. When you're living through it, it's terrifying.

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Speaker 1: Because we are living through the collapse of and the accelerated,

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Speaker 1: it seems now collapse of American Empire, and everyone is

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Speaker 1: hunkering down to some degree or another. But also when

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Speaker 1: you're living through how on earth does this small country Israel.

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Speaker 2: Have such a say in in all of these things?

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Speaker 2: How is it allowed to get away with this? And

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Speaker 2: here I do want to note.

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Speaker 1: That if you had a larger cohort, a larger coalition

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Speaker 1: of country saying well, actually, the way to restabilize things

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Speaker 1: is to challenge that impunity, because Israel will only keep

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Speaker 1: getting more extreme if it is allowed to so by

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Speaker 1: going to the National Court of Justice as South Africa did.

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Speaker 1: I think it's taking one for the world, but it

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Speaker 1: won't help unless the rest of the world gets on board.

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Speaker 1: Second thing i'd say is Garza West Bank. I wish

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Speaker 1: I could say that it needed an Iran war to

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Speaker 1: allow Israel to get away with still controlling sixty percent

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Speaker 1: of the West Bank, still keeping killing people every day,

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Speaker 1: still not allowing in desperately needed assistance, and indeed expanding

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Speaker 1: its operations in the West Bank in addition to what

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Speaker 1: it's doing in Gaza, the largest campaign of displacement and

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Speaker 1: destruction since nineteen sixty seven. I don't think it needed

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Speaker 1: this war in order for Israel to get away with it,

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Speaker 1: but under cover of this war, Israel wants to achieve

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Speaker 1: as much as it can in terms of ending any

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Speaker 1: Palestinian national collective future.

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Speaker 2: Part of the third thing I will close with.

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Speaker 1: People should should actually listen to what Israeli leaders are

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Speaker 1: telling us, because that's what they're intending to pursue, and

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Speaker 1: it is you know, I think this is going to

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Speaker 1: end very badly for Israel, which I don't take any

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Speaker 1: relish in because I think this is an overreach which

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Speaker 1: is going to generate tremendous blowback. But when it comes

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Speaker 1: to its zero some ambitions with the Palestinians, but more

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Speaker 1: broadly as well, Israel is trying to take advantage of

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Speaker 1: this moment of fluidity right when everything is up for

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Speaker 1: grabs and when Israel can still use American power and

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Speaker 1: pull American power into this. And the Israeli leadership know

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Speaker 1: that eventually things will settle down, there'll be some restraints

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Speaker 1: and constraints again in the meantime, how far can one

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Speaker 1: extend Israel's reach as a as a hard power? Hegemond

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Speaker 1: Israel's domination. I don't just mean territories to annex Israeld

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Speaker 1: seizes a buffer zone in Lebanon, in Syria takes all

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Speaker 1: of the Palestinian territories.

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Speaker 3: So, Daniel, what is the off ramp to this? I'll

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Speaker 3: give you a couple of scenarios here.

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Speaker 2: You could be brief on all of them.

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Speaker 3: There is the geopolitical international pressure, which I don't think

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Speaker 3: there is much of. We have heard not much from

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Speaker 3: the UN or the Security Council.

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Speaker 1: There is a.

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Speaker 3: Process in the ICJ, or in the United States it

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Speaker 3: is fifteen members of Donald Trump's cabinet invoking the twenty

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Speaker 3: fifth Amendment, or we need about sixteen senators in the

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Speaker 3: US Senate to vote to impeach Donald Trump. All of

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Speaker 3: those seem largely unlikely. But what is the off road

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Speaker 3: not only for peace in the Middle East, but also

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Speaker 3: for a global economy where an auntie and an uncle

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Speaker 3: in South Africa who can't point to Tehran on a

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Speaker 3: map to tell her why she's struggling and why she

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Speaker 3: will pay eleven rand more for a leader of illuminating.

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Speaker 2: Paraffin and you put your finger on exactly that. The

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Speaker 2: question when it comes to.

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Speaker 1: Israel, it is that long process of challenging, holding to account,

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Speaker 1: ending impunity, which ultimately will require a coalition of states

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Speaker 1: and a big question the US where Israel is losing support.

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Speaker 1: But when it comes to this war and then that

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Speaker 1: bigger picture of how do we prevent this from happening again? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we saw by the way that that with Ukraine, the

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Speaker 1: US move to pose all these sanctions again without asking

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Speaker 1: anyone had these knock on effects around the world. So

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Speaker 1: on the there's a short term and a long term here.

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Speaker 1: On the short term, in terms of this war not

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Speaker 1: getting worse, the US could easily relatively soon find itself escalating,

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Speaker 1: maybe special ops, maybe another way of putting some Americans

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Speaker 1: on the ground, thinking this will be this will be

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Speaker 1: the mission.

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Speaker 2: Accomplished, which it is very unlikely to be.

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Speaker 1: The way I think that in the short term is

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Speaker 1: there's one thing Trump looks.

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Speaker 2: At, which is markets. Is this.

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Speaker 1: Artificial attempt every so often saying to the markets, especially

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Speaker 1: on early on a Monday morning or late on a

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Speaker 1: Sunday night before the market's open after the weekend.

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Speaker 2: Hey, we're about to get a deal.

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Speaker 1: When did the art official attempts to hold off an

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Speaker 1: even more dramatic impact on markets?

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Speaker 2: Americans are feeling it. They have midterms.

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Speaker 4: So there's the internal US political economic piece of this Okay,

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Speaker 4: there's the external pressure that could be exerted on the

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Speaker 4: US again, financially, economically, hard to get countries to come

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Speaker 4: together on that.

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Speaker 1: Even the golf itself could decide because they're not united,

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Speaker 1: they're taking different positions. Some want to see more of this,

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Speaker 1: even at the risk. But could enough of the golf

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Speaker 1: countries and others see the risks and try and pull

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Speaker 1: America away from this, will things go sufficiently badly militarily?

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Speaker 1: That tends to take longer. So the one thing that

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Speaker 1: we may have going for us, I say this hesitantly,

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Speaker 1: is that because Trump has I was going to say

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Speaker 1: a loose relationship with reality, but let's acknowledge virtually no

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Speaker 1: relationship at all. Because of that, Trump could turn round

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Speaker 1: under any conditions, at any moment and simply declare victory.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's probably the way out of this

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Speaker 1: that enough people get in his ear to say, mister president,

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Speaker 1: as you said, is he's just said, by the way,

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Speaker 1: you know, you've done regime change. By the way, let's

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Speaker 1: hope he doesn't look up regime change in a dictory.

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Speaker 1: I think we're quite safe on that front. You've done

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Speaker 1: regime change.

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Speaker 2: We destroyed everything mister President, declare victory. And so you'd

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Speaker 2: get a victory speech.

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Speaker 1: In Washington, a victory speech in Jerusalem, a victory speech

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Speaker 1: in terran They'd sound quite different than Tehran and the

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Speaker 1: Washington was.

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Speaker 2: But at least we might get an end to this