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Speaker 1: Political open the effing straight of Hormuz, or I will

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Speaker 1: destroy an entire civilization. So began the week as the

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Speaker 1: President of the United States threatened to bomb Iran back

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Speaker 1: to the Stone Age after more than a month of war.

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Speaker 1: For the eight hours, it seems is a long time

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Speaker 1: in geopolitics, because as matters stand, the Strait of Hormus

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Speaker 1: is still being controlled by the Iranians, who are toting

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Speaker 1: any ships they allow passage US. Ally, Israel has continued

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Speaker 1: to rage against neighbor Lebanon in a sustained aerial campaign,

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Speaker 1: and the Iranians are targeting Gulf countries in retaliation, and

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Speaker 1: so has the needle shifted at all. Terence mcnamie is

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Speaker 1: a global affairs specialist and senior fellow at the Montreal

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Speaker 1: Institute of Global Security in Canada, and always a pleasure

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Speaker 1: to have you on the show. A very good morning

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Speaker 1: to you.

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Speaker 2: Hi, Good morning, bon Gunny.

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Speaker 1: So I want to know, firstly, how did you react

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Speaker 1: to that profanity laden post by Trump? Was it? I mean,

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Speaker 1: is typical blaster or a man clearly panicking, if not

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Speaker 1: even unstable, as some of his critics would now suggest.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the latter is probably more accurate Bonkani.

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Speaker 2: I mean, even by his standards, that tweet sent shockwaves

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Speaker 2: around the world for a number of reasons. Obviously, to

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Speaker 2: threaten to do that is a clear violation of international

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Speaker 2: law and a war crime. Obviously if he had taken

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Speaker 2: if he had acted upon it in terms of attacking

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Speaker 2: civilian infrastructure. But I think it did reflect a tremendous

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Speaker 2: frustration that he has found himself in this very invidious position,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think he's quite sure how he can

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Speaker 2: get out of it and legitimately claim a strategic victory.

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Speaker 1: We understood that there was a ceasefire that had been

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Speaker 1: agreed to, certainly the American seemed to think so. But

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Speaker 1: of course, now with Israel continuing to attack Lebanon, Iran

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Speaker 1: has also attacked some of the Gulf countries. I'm thinking

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Speaker 1: that oil installation in Saudi Arabia. So is there a ceasefire?

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Speaker 2: Well, there is chaos, there is confusion, There are very

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Speaker 2: highly contested interpretations of what was agreed upon, and I

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Speaker 2: think in the next twenty four hours forty eight hours

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Speaker 2: we're going to have some more clarity. But this is

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Speaker 2: obviously a very perilous situation for the reason and for

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Speaker 2: the world in many ways. And I think that, you know,

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Speaker 2: the idea that Pakistan is kind of coming to the

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Speaker 2: rescue in this situation, a country that doesn't even recognize

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Speaker 2: the state of Israel, is really really extraordinary. But there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of reporting going on, a lot of heat,

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Speaker 2: but not much light. So I think we probably have

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Speaker 2: to hold fire in terms of any kind of definitive

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Speaker 2: assessments of what's going on, because, let's face it, there's

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Speaker 2: a tremendous amount of uncertainty and confusion.

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Speaker 1: The two leaders at the center of this bromance, Trump

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Speaker 1: and Natagna, who are viewed by some as not having

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Speaker 1: achieved any of the aims they stated at the start

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Speaker 1: of this. And now we have, for the first time

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Speaker 1: a majority of Americans, according to Poling, who now have

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Speaker 1: a negative view of the state of Israel.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so Prime Minister in Natagna, who tried to convince

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Speaker 2: President Bush Junior to attack Iran, he tried to convince

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Speaker 2: Obama of the same thing, and he tried to convince Biden.

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Speaker 2: All three of those US presidents said no, And in

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Speaker 2: part they said no because of what we're witnessing now.

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Speaker 2: It unleashes a whole set of unintended consequences. But as

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Speaker 2: The New York Times recently reported, it seems that this

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Speaker 2: time President Trump was persuaded about whether it was the

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Speaker 2: necessity or he could achieve a quick victory like he

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Speaker 2: did in Venezuela. But on your point about the United

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Speaker 2: States and Israel, it's very very important to recognize that

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Speaker 2: Trump came to power very much on the back of

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Speaker 2: the right wing media and of course all of these

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Speaker 2: social media influencers that really rallied the mega base, and

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Speaker 2: there's no doubt there has been something of a sea

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Speaker 2: change in the last few months, and you know, personalities

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Speaker 2: like Tucker Carlson and Meg Kelly and Alex Jones, all

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Speaker 2: of these people would seem to be turning very much

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Speaker 2: away from Israel, in part because Israel is seen as

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Speaker 2: dragging the United States into these foreign entanglements, which was

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Speaker 2: exactly anathma to what MAGA and America First was all about. So, yes,

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Speaker 2: I think you're correctly identifying that this is a serious

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Speaker 2: moment for the US Israeli relationship, and I'm not quite

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Speaker 2: sure how they're going to get that back on track.

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Speaker 1: These because the Iranians could be argued to have more

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Speaker 1: now than they did at the start of this in

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Speaker 1: terms of their direct control of the strait and deciding

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Speaker 1: who gets through and how much they pay as a

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Speaker 1: result of it. Look at a more broader picture. The

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Speaker 1: Chinese had an interesting reaction to that post by Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: We saw both China and Russia vito a Security Council

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Speaker 1: vote on the Straight. In fact, China's envoy to the

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Speaker 1: UN said adopting such a draft as proposed by Bahrain

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Speaker 1: when the US was threatening the survival of a civilization

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Speaker 1: would send the wrong message.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, very interesting point, Bonghani. So if you're China and

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Speaker 2: you're sitting back and watching this, there's two big wins.

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Speaker 2: The first one is that again China looks like the

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Speaker 2: adult in the room. It looks like the only kind

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Speaker 2: of superpower rational actor. I mean, this is a time

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Speaker 2: where to recall if the United States has ever been

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Speaker 2: less trusted by both its allies and its rivals. And

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Speaker 2: the second thing is the lesson from Iran's choking off

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Speaker 2: the Straight of horror moves and its impact on the

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Speaker 2: global economy is of course Taiwan. Look at the power

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Speaker 2: that China could exert if it executed a blockade on Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: I mean that would be far more disruptive for the

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Speaker 2: global economy because then in an instant you would wipe

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Speaker 2: out a third of the microchips, because about a third

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Speaker 2: of them are manufactured in factories in Taiwan. And that

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Speaker 2: impact on would be much more than oil. It would

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Speaker 2: be on computers, it would be on cars. I mean,

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Speaker 2: so China must be sitting back and just going, wow,

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Speaker 2: let's just let the United States make more of a

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Speaker 2: mess of it, and you know, they just have to

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Speaker 2: really sit.

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Speaker 1: Back, don't interrupt your arrival whilst making a mistake. Our

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Speaker 1: president has famously said, which brings us to the new

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Speaker 1: US ambassador here in South Africa very quickly, Dr mcnamie.

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Speaker 1: I mean he's striking a more conciliatory tone with his

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Speaker 1: host country. Is that his own independent thinking based on

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Speaker 1: the realities he's now seeing on the ground now that

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Speaker 1: he is here, or are we seeing some kind of

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Speaker 1: rapochement between the Union buildings and the White House?

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Speaker 2: Now? I think it has much more to do with

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Speaker 2: him as a person. If you remember, I think I

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Speaker 2: mentioned on this program even a year ago that let's

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Speaker 2: just wait till he arrives, don't prejudge him, and it's

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Speaker 2: clear that he is a thoughtful he's a reflective person,

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Speaker 2: he's a very engaging person. I think where the risk

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Speaker 2: is what I'm observing so far, is that you know,

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Speaker 2: the media may want to question him every opportunity they get,

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Speaker 2: and the ambassador is going to watch himself that he

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Speaker 2: doesn't get drawn into yet another debate or another internal

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Speaker 2: South African issue like he did over the kill the

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Speaker 2: bor Son. But I think, listen, I think it's promising.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's no doubt that there is a possibility

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Speaker 2: of arresting the slide because this ambassador seems open to it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he's clearly not a MAGA stooge. The extent

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Speaker 2: to which this opportunity can be seized upon by both sides,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think that's an open question.

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Speaker 1: Well, we keep inviting him. If he's listening, we'll go

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Speaker 1: easy on him, I promise. Doctor Terren's back to me.

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Speaker 1: Appreciates your time. As always, with this week's political Desk,