1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Democratic Alliance gathered for what it calls its biggest federal 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:08,039 Speaker 1: congress ever, more than two thousand delegates at Gallagher State 3 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:11,600 Speaker 1: this weekend, and there will be elections, and the end 4 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: result of at least one of those elections will be 5 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: that John Steenez and replaces is replaced by Jordan Hill 6 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 1: Lewis as the leader of the DA. In addition, there 7 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: are apparently a record number of policy proposals which must 8 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 1: be debated and voted upon, and Professor Stephen Friedman joins 9 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: us now again. Hello Stephen, Hello Joe. What will you 10 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:39,520 Speaker 1: be looking for to judge this conference as something which 11 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: takes the DA forward or keeps the DA static or 12 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: maybe regresses in elements? What are the key things? The elections, 13 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: the policy proposals it accepted or denied? What is one 14 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: look at now? 15 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 2: John? The key issue I've become a bit of a 16 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 2: broken record on. 17 00:00:57,560 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 3: It that it is a key issue. 18 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 2: Key issue is their attitude to coalitions in general and 19 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 2: the National Coalition in particular, Because you know, the more 20 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 2: I hear about what is going on within the DA, 21 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 2: the more it becomes clear that the real divide in 22 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 2: the DA, the real issue in the DA, is you know, 23 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 2: how they manage their relationships with coalition partners and how 24 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 2: they manage the current national coalition government. You know, I 25 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 2: think that is that is, you know, really front and center. 26 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 2: As as as the issue, how much of it will 27 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 2: become clear from what comes out of a conference is 28 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 2: another matter, but you know that's the that's the key 29 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 2: issue that divides them and that's the key issue that 30 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 2: they have to sort out if they want. 31 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 3: To move forward. 32 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: Stephen, you say what you're hearing about the DA, do 33 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: you get a sense that there is perhaps a fairly 34 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: significant lobby against coalition governments to the DA is taking 35 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: part in it? 36 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:09,079 Speaker 2: Well, in effect, yes, John, I mean, the people who 37 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 2: lobbying against the coalition government don't say that they're against 38 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 2: the coalition government, but you know, from some of the 39 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:22,239 Speaker 2: conversations which seem to be going on, it is well, 40 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 2: we should be in the coalition government, that we should 41 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 2: be more assertive, and you know, it's very difficult to 42 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 2: me to see how they should be more assertive. I mean, 43 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:35,640 Speaker 2: as I've said before, you know, you can support the budget. 44 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 2: That's about as an assertive as you can get. If 45 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 2: you take the government of which you're apart of court. 46 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: That's about as assertain as you can get. So my 47 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 2: point is not that they shouldn't. 48 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 3: Have done these things. They have the right to do 49 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 3: these things, and to. 50 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 2: Be saying that if after they've done all these things 51 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 2: you still think that they're being too accommodaity. It's not 52 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 2: quite sure what you want them to do which would 53 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:03,079 Speaker 2: actually enable a government to hang together. It more or 54 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 2: less seems to need to be. You know, this coalition 55 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 2: was you know, sprung on both parties. There were substantial 56 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 2: opponents within the parties to them, and I think it's 57 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:17,959 Speaker 2: really you know, there's a man of people in the AMC. 58 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 2: On the other side, it's people who I think just 59 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 2: are not comfortable with governing with the AMC. And really 60 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 2: it wouldn't mediate be much what the Dad who didn't 61 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 2: do as long as it was in government with the AMC, 62 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 2: they would come go. 63 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: I don't know that my view matters at all on this, 64 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 1: but my sense is that most people, I say that 65 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 1: very tentatively would agree that by and large having the 66 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: DA in the national government in some quite important ministries 67 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:55,120 Speaker 1: is making a positive difference. You know, the degree of 68 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: positivity and how the level of the achievement can be debated, 69 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 1: and I think I would argue that the DA overclaims 70 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: and its critics under acknowledge its achievements. So I can 71 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: understand that some people might feel a sort of uneasiness 72 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: in their stomach about being in a room with the 73 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 1: A and C. But at the same time, surely they 74 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 1: acknowledge the political realities and the political gains to be made. 75 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 2: Well, John, they should have. What you're saying is that 76 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 2: they should and I agree with you entirely that you know, 77 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 2: people's attitude to these things are not always reasoned and 78 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 2: sought out. You know, there's there's This is what they 79 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 2: call a no brainer. The DA and the people who 80 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:44,040 Speaker 2: support the DA are infinitely better off inside this coalition 81 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 2: and without it. You know they there have been substantial 82 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 2: gains for them from this. The alternative, which nobody on 83 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 2: that side of the argument wants to talk about at all. 84 00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 2: The alternative is what Julius Malema was talking about yesterday, 85 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 2: an A n C, FMK coalition. And you don't need 86 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 2: me to tell me that. You know, for DA voters 87 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 2: and people who support the DA, that. 88 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 3: Be a nightmare. 89 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 2: So when you've got something which is working quite well, 90 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 2: and the alternative is something which would you know, you 91 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 2: would see as a nightmare. It doesn't seem particularly smart 92 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 2: to say that what you've got now is worth keeping. 93 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 2: But that doesn't mean that everybody agrees. I mean, my 94 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:30,480 Speaker 2: sense is that the argument will be settled in favor 95 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 2: of those who if you want to continue as they've 96 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 2: been for the last eighteen months or so. But that 97 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 2: doesn't alter the fact that there were substantial voices inside. 98 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 3: The DA taking the opposite. 99 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 1: View at the level of a faction, in the way 100 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 1: one would look at the ANC and say there's a faction, 101 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 1: particularly without taying that would prefer to be in coalition 102 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 1: with the FF and perhaps even the count sizwere party 103 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 1: and Action and other faction saying no, the better route 104 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: for South Africa is through collaboration with the DA and 105 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:11,479 Speaker 1: other smaller parties. As per the situation as it is 106 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: at the moment, I mean, is that level of dissent 107 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: factional because factionalism implies a kind of potentially negative consequence division. 108 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 2: No, it doesn't play itself out in the same way. John, 109 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 2: I mean, you're not you know, if this is an 110 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:30,039 Speaker 2: ANC conference, you know the question you asked me at 111 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 2: the beginning would be very simple. Well, you know there's 112 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 2: the pro coalition faction and that these are their candidates 113 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 2: and the anti coalitions that can faction, you know similarly, 114 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 2: and let's see who wins the debate and who wins 115 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 2: the election. You know, it's not like that in the DA. 116 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 2: I mean, there's not a clear slate of pro coalition 117 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 2: candidates and a clear slate of anti coalition candidates. It's 118 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 2: simply that, you know, for example, when people get caught 119 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 2: in to advise the gear, these are the kind of 120 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 2: questions they get on. So I asked what should our 121 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 2: policy on affirmative action be? They're asked what should our 122 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 2: the coalition be? And that's why I continue to insist 123 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 2: that it's the major issues. 124 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: Of the DA and the elections. I know that Jordan 125 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 1: hill Lewis as a challenger, but that is the one 126 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 1: of the elections this weekend that I think one can 127 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 1: predict with complete confidence Jordan eill Lewis is going to 128 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 1: win that. Are there any other posts the successes to 129 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: which will point to something significant in the DA's approach 130 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 1: to perhaps various policy issues, or are you know, is 131 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: this just a routine process and not too much to 132 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 1: be ready into it. 133 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 2: Move on, Yeah, I think more than Lester John. As 134 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 2: I said to you earlier, I just don't you know, 135 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 2: I can't say it to you. You know, the battle 136 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 2: for federal chair is between somebody who takes the DA 137 00:07:57,560 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 2: in this direction, somebody who takes in the opposite direction. 138 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 2: It's really not playing out that way. So to me, 139 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 2: the elections, you know, are not going to give to 140 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 2: answer that question. I think all that will answer the question. 141 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, I'm sure that they will issue, 142 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 2: you know, some clear policy guidelines, and we can have 143 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 2: a look at the extent to which of those bring 144 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 2: them into conflict with other parties in the National Coalition. 145 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 2: And they may well have something to say about directly 146 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 2: about the coalition and about their strategy towards the coalition, 147 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 2: and I think those will be the major telling point 148 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 2: it's going to be if that's going to be far 149 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 2: more significant than trying to figure out on the basis 150 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:41,559 Speaker 2: of who wins and who loses, who is winning that 151 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:42,679 Speaker 2: particular argument. 152 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 1: How much of citizens pay attention to this, I mean, 153 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 1: there's quite a lot of reporting about it, and there 154 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 1: will be more once the event gets fully underway. I mean, 155 00:08:55,600 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 1: is it is it a conference that stable? One description 156 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 1: of it that I've read is that Stiennasen has stabilized 157 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 1: the DA and Jordan Hill Lousimus now take it forward, 158 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 1: and so people will be throwing the bones who see 159 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 1: the degree to which the policy positions which are adopted 160 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 1: the people who put into power, how likely that is 161 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 1: to take the DA forward to make it a greater 162 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: contender for a more meaningful share in any coalition government 163 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: post the next general election. I mean, you've kind of 164 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 1: answered the question, but I'm putting it more directly. 165 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, I just don't see it that way. I mean, 166 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 2: I think there's a particular I think that view that 167 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 2: you just conveyed has a particular interpretation which I think 168 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 2: is open to challenge. You know, the sort of unstated 169 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:57,599 Speaker 2: assumption was that mostly my money messed it up and 170 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 2: John Stierna hasn't fixed it. And I think that's highly 171 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 2: debatable to put it markedly. So, you know, I don't 172 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 2: see it that way at all. No, I you know, 173 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 2: as I've been saying in previous discussions on this, to me, 174 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 2: the real issue is that during Sienheyesen's tenure, politics in 175 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 2: this country changed quite substantially, and the real question for 176 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 2: Hill Lewis and the people who are going to serve 177 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 2: with him in the leadership is whether they've adjusted to 178 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 2: that change or not, whether they have taken on board 179 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 2: the fact that the country has changed. And to me, 180 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 2: the fact that the country has changed is far more 181 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 2: important than the claims that the DA has changed, because 182 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 2: the DA now finds itself in a different environment to 183 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 2: the one that it was in the last time it 184 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 2: elected the leader. And the real question is whether it 185 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,679 Speaker 2: can adapt to that environment. And as to your other questions, 186 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 2: does this matter, Yes, it matters hugely because you know, 187 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 2: if we're entering a period of coalitions in this country, 188 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 2: we want our major political parties to understand how the 189 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 2: game is played and to be most effective as they 190 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,440 Speaker 2: possibly can within that. This conference will give us some 191 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 2: idea of whether the DA is moving in that direction. 192 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 1: Thank you very much to political analyst Professor Stephen Friedman.