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Speaker 1: Well, you can imagine the situation at petrol stations around

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Speaker 1: the country. Government confirming it'll cut the fuel levee by

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Speaker 1: three round e litera but petrol going up by over

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Speaker 1: three round a liter, diesel up seven round a liter

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Speaker 1: from midnight in Kosikona, Malinga and Nissi is the e

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Speaker 1: WN reporter who's been out and about, still at at

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Speaker 1: one of the garages in Santin in Cosyconic. Good evening

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Speaker 1: to you. You've been in Santin, You've been driving around

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Speaker 1: other places as well. What have you seen today? What

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Speaker 1: are drivers telling you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, good evening to you. As Stephen, I think the

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Speaker 2: reality is really setting in for many of the drivers

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Speaker 2: that are the scaged with today, and it's certainly clear

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Speaker 2: now that this is no April fool joke. This is

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Speaker 2: the huge reality for South African motives, and many of

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Speaker 2: them saying that Stephen, that they are already buckling under

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Speaker 2: a pressure and that this only signals even half the

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Speaker 2: times ahead for them. So I'm at one of the

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Speaker 2: petrol stations on Race and Drive and I can tell you, Steven,

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Speaker 2: that the line is backed up right onto the busy

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Speaker 2: routes here and many of the motors have engaged with

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Speaker 2: saying we were really trying to get out of work

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Speaker 2: as quickly as we potentially could have to try and

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Speaker 2: then make it on time before the clock strikes at midnight,

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Speaker 2: which is of course, as you've mentioned, Stephen, when we're

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Speaker 2: expecting those new petrol apprices to come into effect. And

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Speaker 2: I can also tell you that this particular petrol station, Stephen,

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Speaker 2: has also devided some form of strategy to ensure that

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Speaker 2: it can control the volume of vehicles here. So they

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Speaker 2: are essentially finding ways blocking off some sections of the

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Speaker 2: petrol garage to ensure that they can do this as

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Speaker 2: orderly as possible. As I said, the traffic is going

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Speaker 2: onto the road and hence also there's concerns around the

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Speaker 2: safety of the motors in those particular vehicles. But it

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Speaker 2: seems for the petrol attendance for the stuff at the

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Speaker 2: central station, and I can only safely assume across the

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Speaker 2: country is going to be a very busy nighte And

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Speaker 2: you also touched on this a little bit in your interest.

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Speaker 2: Even the concern around the shortage, I mean governments that

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Speaker 2: continues to insist that there is enough supply nationally, but

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Speaker 2: really the situation on the ground where you look at

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Speaker 2: birth other reports even from other provinces that some petrol

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Speaker 2: stations are already putting limits to how much fuel consumers

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Speaker 2: can actually purchase. And also I told you about how

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Speaker 2: motives there were saying that we were rushing to get

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Speaker 2: out of work. You know, that really demonstrates how worried

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Speaker 2: they are that petrol brand could then run out of fuel.

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Speaker 2: But as I said, government continues to then assure and

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Speaker 2: you know, moving to a layers that the country won't

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Speaker 2: run out of fuel. And there's also some interesting conversations

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Speaker 2: I've had with motors around what they think government could

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Speaker 2: have further done to essentially fused them against the situation

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Speaker 2: that we're seeing a develops of course as a result

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Speaker 2: of those at tensions in the middle. I mean, some

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Speaker 2: of them are saying days fillis of government should have

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Speaker 2: gone the whole way and completely stepped that sue levy.

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Speaker 2: But people, that's no more part of nise even about

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Speaker 2: how these things really work. We'll tell you that it's

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Speaker 2: simply not possible. We're speaking about six billion rand and

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Speaker 2: losses that government now needs to recover in some ways

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Speaker 2: because of cutting that fuel levy by three rand eight

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Speaker 2: least even quot.

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Speaker 1: In Cozy Coana, thank you so much and Cosconoma Linga

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Speaker 1: and Nisi's the e WN reporter on this in Sentin tonight.

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Speaker 1: Senesia Pakaasani is the Momentum Investment's chief economists. Senesia, good evening,

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Speaker 1: Thanks for your time. Just the fact that so many

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Speaker 1: people are queuing trying to save themselves the extra cost

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Speaker 1: of what petrol will be in sort of five hours

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Speaker 1: time shows you how desperate people are. What is this

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Speaker 1: going to do to inflation? Has those new fuel prices

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Speaker 1: come in, so many people will feel an impact immediately.

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Speaker 3: Good evening, Stephen, and hello to your listeners.

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Speaker 4: You know it's completely understandable.

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Speaker 3: This is one of the largest petrol or fuel price

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Speaker 3: increases we've had historically, and that really substantiates, you know,

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Speaker 3: the reason that we see these long cues at the

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Speaker 3: petrol station. Of course, the big announcement from today was

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Speaker 3: from Finance Minister in Afkuda, Guada announcing that we would

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Speaker 3: get a three rand perleta cut on the fuel levees

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Speaker 3: and so that brings your overall price increase for your

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Speaker 3: ninety five inland petrol to three rand and six cents

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Speaker 3: poleita and for the purest form of diesel at seven

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Speaker 3: rand and fifty one saints polita.

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Speaker 4: Of course, remember.

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Speaker 3: That with your diesel these prices are unregulated and so

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Speaker 3: they can still be a retail and wholesale margin applied

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Speaker 3: to that, which of course then is a further drag

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Speaker 3: and consumer pockets.

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Speaker 4: When we look at fuel, it's only about three point

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Speaker 4: eight percent.

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Speaker 3: Of the consumer basket. But as we know, many of

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Speaker 3: our food products are actually transported by road, and so

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Speaker 3: they can potentially be a food price impact about three

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Speaker 3: to six months. There is a bit of a time

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Speaker 3: lag by the time the food gets from the farmers

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Speaker 3: to the end retailer, so the overall impact on the

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Speaker 3: consumer can be a bit more significant. Given that we've

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Speaker 3: had this announcement of the three rand cut in the

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Speaker 3: fuel levy, that should shave off about zero point four

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Speaker 3: to zero point five percent each points from that peak

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Speaker 3: rate of inflation as were heading.

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Speaker 1: To April, government's losing six billion round. As you say,

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Speaker 1: considering the impact this would have had in our economy otherwise,

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Speaker 1: is that a good investment? I mean, it might well

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Speaker 1: save us an interest rate hike.

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Speaker 4: I think that we were quite fortunate when we think

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Speaker 4: about twenty twenty two, and that was the last time

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Speaker 4: that government actually intervened with a fuel levee reduction. That

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Speaker 4: was around the third quarter of twenty twenty two, and

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Speaker 4: it was as a result of Russia's invasion into Ukraine,

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Speaker 4: which then of course saw oil prices picking up over

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Speaker 4: that period of time. We also had a pickup in

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Speaker 4: the food price over that period of time, and government

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Speaker 4: actually gave a relief of around one round fifty. At

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Speaker 4: that point in time, the fiscal measures were looking a

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Speaker 4: lot poorer than there are today. You know, going into

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Speaker 4: the February budgets of corporate tax revenue receipts and assumptions

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Speaker 4: for future corporate tax revenues were looking quite healthy. We

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Speaker 4: also have a contingency reserve that's bad into the budget,

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Speaker 4: and so there is a little bit of leeway for

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Speaker 4: government to in fact spend on that three rand liter

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Speaker 4: And as you say, I think it's going to be

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Speaker 4: a reasonably good investment from the fiscal side, given that

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Speaker 4: it does prevent that inflation spike from peaking at an

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Speaker 4: even higher rate, and then of course that alleviates the

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Speaker 4: pressure on the monetary policy side, as we see fiscal

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Speaker 4: policy work hand in hand with my industry policies.

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Speaker 1: Sensia paka Asami, thanks so much. Really appreciated the Chief

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Speaker 1: economists that momentum investments