1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,000 Speaker 1: Previous hour. We spoke to Migsine Bazeta, note who's with 2 00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: provincial traffic here in the Western Cape. She had stationed 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,040 Speaker 1: herself outside the huguen otannel for quite some time today 4 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: and saying that the levels of compliance have been really, 5 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: really promising as people make their way to other parts 6 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: of the country. We did not see a lot of 7 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: activity at the long distance bus interchange portals such as 8 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: Jokaby Balvo and City Center here in Cape Town. And 9 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: we presume that many people then chose to leave last 10 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 1: weekend already once the children went on school holiday, ahead 11 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:39,599 Speaker 1: of course of the petrol price increase that was effected 12 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: yesterday at midnight. Let's get the national picture, shall we. 13 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: Doctor Mateta is the lead Transport Systems and Operations at CSI. R. Mateta, 14 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 1: A very good afternoon, and welcome to the show. 15 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 2: A good afternoon. 16 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 1: Are we seeing a replication of what's happening in the 17 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: Western Cap in the other eight provinces? I wonder we 18 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:06,680 Speaker 1: do know? We worry very much about the corridor from 19 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 1: how Tang to Limpopo, where many people go on pilgrimage 20 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:12,679 Speaker 1: traditionally at this time of the year. How are the 21 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 1: roads looking. 22 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:22,119 Speaker 2: Well, typically the national roads tend to be busiest at 23 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 2: this time of the year, especially and three you know, 24 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 2: going moving from you know how them to Pusu Natal, 25 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 2: but then also any one from how Them to to Limpopo. 26 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 2: So it's it's typically a typical you know, traffic flow. 27 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 2: But with with increased price price ll who would expect 28 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 2: that the numbers will will will will drop quite a bit. 29 00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 1: Do we have any evidence as yet as to what 30 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: percent of drop we might experience, because quite rightly, some 31 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 1: people are going to go, wait a minute, filling up 32 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: a tank in order for me to drive the distance 33 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: from Johannesburg to Durbin, for example, might not justify the 34 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 1: trip anymore. 35 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 2: Yes, it's true. Typically with with price and demand, for 36 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 2: every one percent increase in the price of fuel, you 37 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 2: typically see the numbers dropping by about half a percent. 38 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 2: So you'd expect that from previous years, typically traffic would 39 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 2: probably drop as much as you know, fifteen percent, ten 40 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 2: to fifteen percent. That is what I would expect based 41 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 2: on the you know that elasticity. 42 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 1: The challenge of course with the Easter weekend is how 43 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,120 Speaker 1: short it is, right, so we're seeing the pressure the 44 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:04,119 Speaker 1: road network system starting today already probably all the way 45 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 1: to tomorrow morning. There will be a reprieve come the 46 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: afternoon Saturday and Sunday, and then we see it reversing 47 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,639 Speaker 1: on Monday. So this does place quite a bit of 48 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 1: pressure on traffic officials I imagine. 49 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:20,920 Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, but we are spoiled actually as South Africans 50 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 2: because when we design this you know freeways, a lane 51 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 2: is supposed to take up around two thousand or two 52 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 2: thousand vehicles per hour that is one lane, so you've 53 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 2: got two lanes. You're supposed to have, you know, capacity 54 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 2: of about four thousand vehicles per hour. But typically in 55 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 2: this period we have some you know corridial like anyone 56 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 2: going to the north picking at it around two thousand 57 00:03:57,760 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 2: you know, vehicles per hour. So there's still quite a 58 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 2: bit of capacity that we are not using in South Africa. 59 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 2: But of course, if the if the if the traffic 60 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 2: flow goes that high at capacity to two thousand equivalent 61 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 2: if you per hour per lane, then the speed would 62 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 2: drop to something like you know fifty you know kilometers 63 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 2: per hour that you're able to still drive at eighty 64 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:27,039 Speaker 2: you know one hundreds you know kilometers per hours. Meant 65 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 2: that the capacity that we have on our national roads 66 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 2: is actually good for the demand that we have. 67 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 1: I mean, driving at fifty clumpters an hour would probably 68 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 1: be ideal. It might take you longer to get your destination, 69 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 1: but you won't be burning as much fuel and therefore 70 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: the leader of petrol you've got in your guest tank 71 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 1: would go a lot further than would be the case 72 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: if you're driving at one twenty klumeters an hour. 73 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:56,280 Speaker 2: Yes, actually a blessing in disguise. 74 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,359 Speaker 1: Are we behaving as drivers? From what you are able 75 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 1: to witness from the lead transport well from the transport center, 76 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 1: I suppose typically the challenges are fatigued drivers who do 77 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 1: not stop to rest at appropriate intervals and of course 78 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 1: drinking and driving as well as speeding. 79 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 2: Yes, drinking and driving is one of our biggest problems 80 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 2: in South Africa. From the research done, it shows that 81 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 2: you know, about fifty to sixty percent of fatalities involved 82 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 2: drink and driving. So it's something that we absolutely have 83 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 2: to have to address. So if we solve that or 84 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 2: we manage that, we will solve essentially a half of 85 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 2: our problems. But then, of course, you know, just training, training, awareness, 86 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 2: you know becomes important. You know, overall in the ces R, 87 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 2: we we we've invested in what you call it transpolsivety 88 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 2: lab that we we're going to be using, or we 89 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 2: used to measure risk as opposed to just looking at 90 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 2: the crashes. So we're saying, if you're able to to 91 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 2: to to measure risk and report on risk and manage risk, 92 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:22,559 Speaker 2: you're able then to manage the safety outcomes. So often 93 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 2: what you hear is, you know, uh, political leaders uh, 94 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,479 Speaker 2: you know, talking about that the numbers have dropped, you know, 95 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,359 Speaker 2: from this match to that match. It doesn't say, you know, 96 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 2: this is how much the risk has changed. You may 97 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 2: still have that inherent risk that the numbers have gone down. 98 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 2: It could be, for example, that like this year, the 99 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 2: full pricess that have gone up and therefore the demand 100 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 2: has gone down. But what you're supposed to actually be 101 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 2: doing is to be saying, this is what how much 102 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 2: the risk has changed? And typically there are five key 103 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 2: things that we look at. Is the infrastructure quality, we 104 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 2: look at, the vehicle quality, the driver skills, but then 105 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 2: the enforcement the enforcement capacity as well, but also very 106 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 2: importantly the ability of emergency response, you know, to come 107 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 2: on board and rescue victims. Of course so that you know, 108 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 2: curshes don't shouldn't always translate into fatalities. 109 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 1: And out of those five factors, the infrastructure, vehicle, driver skill, enforcement, 110 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 1: and emergency response, which ones in a South Askan context 111 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 1: typically are the greatest contributor to a higher risk factor. 112 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 1: Would you say. 113 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 2: It's typically the behavior, the behavior of individuals that contributes 114 00:07:54,480 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 2: the most to to to the treasures. Often individual underestimate 115 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 2: what you know a second can do in terms of 116 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 2: resulting in a crash fatality. So distracted driving is one 117 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 2: of the basic major basards emerging driving while uh being 118 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 2: on a cell phone and other you know, distructions while 119 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 2: while driving. But of course the biggest is the you know, 120 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 2: you know, dr drag and driving. So behavior behavior is 121 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 2: uh a major major factor in all of this. But 122 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 2: with with commercial with commercial vehicles like buses and bus taxes, 123 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 2: maintenance you know, tends to be a major factor. So 124 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 2: from the from the numbers that you've seen, on average, 125 00:08:56,280 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 2: commercial vehicles tend to save their cost the operating costs 126 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 2: by cutting down on maintenance. So that is one of 127 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 2: the major risks that you know needs to be managed. 128 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 2: So the whole management of road wadiness of vehicles that 129 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 2: that whole entire ecosystem needs to be attendant to, you know, 130 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 2: quite agently. If if you look at the the public 131 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 2: testing stations, some of them are closed, they don't have 132 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,839 Speaker 2: the facilities to to to do this. And you look 133 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 2: at the private testing facilities, often don't you know, sometimes 134 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 2: don't don't don't go through the whole sort of tests. 135 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 2: They're chasing money as opposed to you know, doing the 136 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 2: tests as they should. 137 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 1: Absolutely, but Tata, thank you very much indeed for your 138 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 1: time this afternoon, doctor lead Transport Systems and Operations at 139 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: c S. I are reflecting, of course, on how we're 140 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 1: doing international, not internationally, but nationally as far as our 141 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 1: transport is concerned. At driver skooll behavior that is the 142 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:09,200 Speaker 1: number one contributing factor in private vehicles. That's something we 143 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: can do something about. You and I can change and 144 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 1: adjust our behavior on the roads and ensure that we 145 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: all get to our destinations safely.