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Speaker 1: The war in Iran is nearing the end of its

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Speaker 1: third week, all prices rising again today as energy infrastructure

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Speaker 1: is being damaged and the vital Strait of Homus remains

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Speaker 1: effectively shut. On the ground, the Israeli military struck the

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Speaker 1: area of Nur, which is east of Tehran, as Iran

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Speaker 1: continues to make retaliatory strikes around the region. Iran Supreme

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Speaker 1: Leader said in a written statement that security must be

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Speaker 1: denied to all Iran's enemies. Joining me on the line

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Speaker 1: is Xenut Adams Zenat is a deputy executive director at

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Speaker 1: the Afro Middle East Center. Zenata, Very good afternoon, and

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Speaker 1: welcome to the show.

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Speaker 2: Good afternoon, Africa, and good afternoon to your listeners.

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Speaker 1: The President of the United States saying that they are

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Speaker 1: considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's do you pronounce

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Speaker 1: it Kach Island took to us about the significance of this.

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Speaker 2: Well, we saw that they had attacked Kach Island a

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Speaker 2: few days ago, and that was where some of the

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Speaker 2: major oil facilities of Iran. Word, but it's also very

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Speaker 2: strategic in terms of being at the mouthway of the

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Speaker 2: Strait of Hormones. So the intention on the part of

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Speaker 2: the Americans is to try and occupy that and utilize

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Speaker 2: it from a strategic and military perspective to see whether

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Speaker 2: or not they would be able to reopen the Strait

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Speaker 2: of hormones. It's worth mentioning that the Iranians have said

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Speaker 2: the strait is only close to American and Israelis and

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Speaker 2: their allies, but they have allowed other ships to pass through,

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Speaker 2: including Chinese and Indian who are the major purchases of

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Speaker 2: oil and gas from this region. But that does come

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Speaker 2: at a surcharge as well. I think that the idea

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Speaker 2: of sending troops on the ground beyond Kuk Island, if

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Speaker 2: there is any intention, which Vibness and Yahoo mentioned yesterday,

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Speaker 2: to enter into Iran and to force the revolution there

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Speaker 2: or to have a full regime change, I think that

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Speaker 2: would be a dangerous escalation at the stage.

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Speaker 1: Because that is a real fit. Is it not the

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Speaker 1: option the possibility of having men and women be they

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Speaker 1: part of the IDF or US military on the ground

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Speaker 1: in Iran.

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Speaker 2: I certainly don't think that the Ideas would be able

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Speaker 2: to do this on their own. So there is a

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Speaker 2: lobbying being undertaken in order to get the Americans on

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Speaker 2: the ground. But I think that this is highly underestimating

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Speaker 2: the IRGC and their capacity to respond on the ground,

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Speaker 2: and also the terrain of Iran. I think that would

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Speaker 2: be taking this from simply a war of attrition and

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Speaker 2: survival for the Iranians to a long protracted war that

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Speaker 2: could last years. The difficulty that everyone in the region

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Speaker 2: is facing right now is that none of the parties

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Speaker 2: are interested in going to the negotiation table. The clovacy

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Speaker 2: seems to be the last thing on their minds. There

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Speaker 2: have been attempts by Chinese, by the Turks and other

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Speaker 2: golf parties to try and def relate the situation back

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Speaker 2: to the Iranians have said they are not interested in

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Speaker 2: a ceasefire, and they've set down quite a number of

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Speaker 2: demands that would include a complete withdrawal of the Americans

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Speaker 2: from this region and a reparations for the for the

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Speaker 2: losses that they have incurred.

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Speaker 1: At which point do we start seeing the end of

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Speaker 1: the light of the tunnel? I suppose as in not

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Speaker 1: probably an inner proper use of the English language, but

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Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Because the Fed Reserve Governor

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Speaker 1: Chris Waller was speaking to c NBC a few hours

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Speaker 1: ago saying that if the war with Iran continues for

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Speaker 1: many more months, US consumers are likely to start backing

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Speaker 1: off because consumer spending drives two thirds of US economic activity,

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Speaker 1: and they're looking at their guest and they're looking at

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Speaker 1: the price, and they're seeking, or seeing rather how much

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Speaker 1: it's going to cost them. Essentially, I imagine Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: in the next while will start coming under pressure within

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Speaker 1: the United States to go, wait a minute, bro, why

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Speaker 1: are we in this because it's affecting our wallets.

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Speaker 2: He's already under significant preacter because he went ahead without

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Speaker 2: Congress and had that done later on exposed, you know,

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Speaker 2: after he had already invaded and after he had already

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Speaker 2: attacked Iran. Then you have the populace who are saying, well,

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Speaker 2: we didn't vote for this. We voted for a Trump

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Speaker 2: who said there were no more wars, and you based

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Speaker 2: your campaign on that, and yet here you are going

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Speaker 2: into war with Iran, which is disastrous. So that works

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Speaker 2: against him as well. Looking at the numbers, I think

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Speaker 2: there's about over sixty percent who are anti war at

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Speaker 2: this stage. And then, of course when you look at

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Speaker 2: the petrol prices, the oil prices. This morning, I looked

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Speaker 2: at it and for Americans, an average American would be

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Speaker 2: paying over eight dollars a gallon. That is a substantial amount.

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Speaker 2: But we have to also consider what this means for

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Speaker 2: the rest of the globe Africa, and I think that

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Speaker 2: we have not really absorbed how much of an impact

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Speaker 2: this is going to have, because it's not just about

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Speaker 2: the oil and gas prices. It's also about the fertilizer prices,

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Speaker 2: and that is going to affect Africa and our food

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Speaker 2: security in the long run because we're in a planting season,

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Speaker 2: so by the next season and by twenty twenty seven,

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Speaker 2: we're going to start feeling the impact of what is

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Speaker 2: happening right now. And I don't think that our government

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Speaker 2: or our country is fully prepared for a long term

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Speaker 2: war in that region and the impact it will have

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Speaker 2: on us.

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Speaker 1: Fully prepared, definitely, not in part because we are not

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Speaker 1: an economy with a lot of access or fat that

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Speaker 1: we can play with. Right Because let's be clear, come

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Speaker 1: the first Wednesday of April, we will be paying at

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Speaker 1: a minimum an additional four randal liter for the price

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Speaker 1: of petrol, and if you're driving a diesel vehicle, that

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Speaker 1: will be up to seven possibly nine rando liter that's

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Speaker 1: going to be significant.

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Speaker 2: That's why I'm planning on staying home. I don't think

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Speaker 2: I can manage this any longer. We've seen some countries

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Speaker 2: like Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Singapore starting to have work at

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Speaker 2: home like we did during COVID, but this is based

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Speaker 2: on trying to maintain their strategic fuel reserves and perhaps

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Speaker 2: that's something South Africa needs to look at. I have

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Speaker 2: seen that government has said we've just recently done some

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Speaker 2: purchases and so we do have sufficient fuel in our reserves.

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Speaker 2: But when we say sufficient, I don't think that this

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Speaker 2: is really looking in the long term for months ahead.

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Speaker 2: What that does to us is the impact at the

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Speaker 2: grocery stores. We already have a country that is on

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Speaker 2: the poverty index, we already have high unemployment, and when

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Speaker 2: you look at the cost of living that will go

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Speaker 2: up as a result of the oil price. I think

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Speaker 2: that we're looking at a tough few months ahead of us,

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Speaker 2: a potential world recession if this continues beyond the next

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Speaker 2: few weeks.

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Speaker 1: Sure zinad thank you very much as OUs for your insights.

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Speaker 1: Zenat Adam, the Deputy executive director for the Afro Middle

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Speaker 1: East Center