1
00:00:01,320 --> 00:00:05,560
Speaker 1: And now The Money Show with Stephen Crittis on seven

2
00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:07,440
Speaker 1: oh two. Let's walk little.

3
00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:09,840
Speaker 2: The Money Show with Stephen Curtis is brought to you

4
00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,600
Speaker 2: by ABS Islamic Business Banking celebrating twenty years of banking

5
00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:17,320
Speaker 2: rooted in values. AMSA is a registered FSP. Good Evening,

6
00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:20,560
Speaker 2: ten minutes after six times, Stephen Curtis, Welcome to the program.

7
00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,560
Speaker 2: How small a man? How smaller boy? Is? Donald Trump?

8
00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:28,920
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't want to go if Cyril goes,

9
00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:32,320
Speaker 2: so you have to say to Cyril, no, he can't go,

10
00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:35,560
Speaker 2: Otherwise I won't come. I mean, frankly, I mean it

11
00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:38,879
Speaker 2: sounds so stupid and immature to put it like that,

12
00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,519
Speaker 2: but how else can you put it? So from everything

13
00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:45,720
Speaker 2: we understood, everything we know, the US put pressure on France,

14
00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:48,000
Speaker 2: who are hosting the G seven, to say don't let

15
00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,400
Speaker 2: the South Africans come, and France gives in, well, thanks

16
00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:54,520
Speaker 2: a lot. France will remember that. But just astonishing, I mean,

17
00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,640
Speaker 2: just how sort of small. What I find so amazing

18
00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,000
Speaker 2: about this is that there's a much bigger thing, actually

19
00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,000
Speaker 2: much deeper thing, which is they're not scared of US.

20
00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:06,400
Speaker 2: Trump isn't scared of South Africa. He's scared of our ideas,

21
00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:09,600
Speaker 2: and isn't that the problem? And when you're scared of

22
00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:12,600
Speaker 2: ideas and you can't actually argue with the idea, you

23
00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:15,240
Speaker 2: shut the person up. I mean time and time and

24
00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,120
Speaker 2: time again. Every dictator you've ever seen, they're not scared

25
00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:20,480
Speaker 2: of the person, They're scared of the idea taking hold.

26
00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,360
Speaker 2: It really seems to me that's what Trump has done here.

27
00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:27,640
Speaker 2: So I mean, just a bizarre, immature, childish thing. And

28
00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:29,679
Speaker 2: it can only be because he doesn't have an idea

29
00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:33,040
Speaker 2: that's better. It must be that anyway, be very excited,

30
00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,080
Speaker 2: to very intrigue to hear your views on it. I

31
00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:37,319
Speaker 2: know seven two seven, two one seven or two that

32
00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,880
Speaker 2: decision by France to withdraw the invitation. I mean, they're

33
00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,360
Speaker 2: withdrawing the invitation for our president to go to the

34
00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,280
Speaker 2: G seven. And it's not about our president, the person

35
00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:50,800
Speaker 2: of President Sama Pausa. It is about South Africa and

36
00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:54,760
Speaker 2: what he represents. Again, the idea of South Africa well

37
00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:57,640
Speaker 2: plenty to come. Obviously, interest the Reserve Bank keeping interest

38
00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,240
Speaker 2: rates on hold, and you can imagine why we will

39
00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,720
Speaker 2: speak to Kevin Ling's, the chief economist at Standard Asset

40
00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:06,080
Speaker 2: Management about that. In just a moment. On the same day,

41
00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:10,200
Speaker 2: some scenario is released for our economy. There are bird

42
00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:13,360
Speaker 2: names this time. There's hardy Dar. I mean, of course

43
00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:17,200
Speaker 2: there's a hardy Dar. There's the Maraboo stalk, also known

44
00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:20,840
Speaker 2: as the undertaker bird. I think you know which scenario

45
00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,720
Speaker 2: that is. And then the fish eagle, in which we

46
00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:27,239
Speaker 2: grow very quickly and things start to really move after

47
00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:29,520
Speaker 2: sixth thirty. We're going to do something I've been wanting

48
00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:31,720
Speaker 2: to do for quite a while. Actually, I'm quite excited

49
00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:33,920
Speaker 2: about it. And here's my thesis, and I'll be very

50
00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:35,880
Speaker 2: interested to hear your views that it seems to me

51
00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:38,840
Speaker 2: when we talk about our unemployment rate, which we do

52
00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:43,360
Speaker 2: all the time, we don't necessarily consider how regional it is,

53
00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,160
Speaker 2: and how all of the countries around us have exactly

54
00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,120
Speaker 2: the same problem. They are slightly different rates of unemployment

55
00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:51,400
Speaker 2: to us, but they have exactly the same problem. So

56
00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:54,000
Speaker 2: we'll do a deep dive into that. We will speak

57
00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,480
Speaker 2: to Titus mccorvet who's an economist based in Zimbabwe Pardi

58
00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:00,320
Speaker 2: La Hotly you'll know he's the former Statistician General. He's

59
00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,840
Speaker 2: agreed to talk to you about the situation in La

60
00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:06,519
Speaker 2: Suitor Isaac Matzerko will explain the situation of Mozambique but

61
00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:08,720
Speaker 2: also sort of put it together for us. He's from Netbank,

62
00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,000
Speaker 2: so I'm really looking forward to that conversation. And then

63
00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,160
Speaker 2: don't forget after seven o'clock a Supermolelea Zondi is going

64
00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:18,840
Speaker 2: to be talking about that massive Facebook trial in which

65
00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:22,760
Speaker 2: a California jury found that actually Facebook was guilty of

66
00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:27,480
Speaker 2: making their social media systems more addictive and the impact

67
00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,320
Speaker 2: that had on a young girl. I mean, you have

68
00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:32,960
Speaker 2: children in your life, you really don't want to miss that.

69
00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:34,920
Speaker 2: Good to hear from you. Oh double one double a

70
00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,320
Speaker 2: three oh seven, O two two one four four six

71
00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,280
Speaker 2: five six seven and voice notes on oh seven two seven,

72
00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:41,440
Speaker 2: oh two one seven oh two.

73
00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:46,160
Speaker 3: The Loly Show with Stephen krudis live on ninety two

74
00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:50,080
Speaker 3: point seven and one six FM, streaming on the Prime Media.

75
00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,200
Speaker 1: Plus NAP and DStv channel eight five six.

76
00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:57,280
Speaker 2: Well, the Reserve Bank surprising precisely no one by keeping

77
00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,400
Speaker 2: rates on hold today, the Governor e Certa Niacopo out

78
00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:02,920
Speaker 2: there are just too many moving parts for anyone to

79
00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:04,760
Speaker 2: really predict what will happen in the Middle East and

80
00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:08,280
Speaker 2: therefore to oil prices and fuel prices. Kevin Lynx is

81
00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,760
Speaker 2: the chief economist at stanleyb Asset Management. Kevin, thanks for

82
00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:13,360
Speaker 2: your time, good evening. I mean, if you look at

83
00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:15,720
Speaker 2: all of the variables, all of the moving parts, I

84
00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:19,120
Speaker 2: suppose the bank didn't really have much of a choice.

85
00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,800
Speaker 2: A hold was probably the only prudent option.

86
00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:27,360
Speaker 4: Hi, Steven, Yeah, that's exactly right. There's been I think

87
00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:31,760
Speaker 4: about fifteen central banks that have met since the run

88
00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:35,400
Speaker 4: war started, and the vast majority of those have kept

89
00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:37,800
Speaker 4: rates on hold. There have been a couple of countries

90
00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:42,440
Speaker 4: that have hiked I think I remember Iceland heiked, Australia hiked,

91
00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:46,800
Speaker 4: But generally the thought at the moment is a wait

92
00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:49,880
Speaker 4: and see, And what you're looking for is how long

93
00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,279
Speaker 4: does this crisis last? How long does the oil price

94
00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:56,760
Speaker 4: stay at these levels? And obviously the longer it stays

95
00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:59,159
Speaker 4: at the level that it's at at the moment, the

96
00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:02,719
Speaker 4: more damage do both to inflation and growth. And the

97
00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:06,160
Speaker 4: primary focus is unfortunately going to be on inflation, and

98
00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,880
Speaker 4: so the tendency from most central banks will be to

99
00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:14,200
Speaker 4: wait and see, but keep indicating that the risk is

100
00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:18,440
Speaker 4: too higher interest rates. If the impact of the oil

101
00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:23,039
Speaker 4: price broadens into many different price categories.

102
00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,040
Speaker 2: We seem to be expecting. I mean, they are different views.

103
00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:28,840
Speaker 2: But a fuel price like of probably between five and

104
00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:31,960
Speaker 2: seven rand next week, what does that do to inflation?

105
00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,080
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm presuming we would see the impact pretty quickly.

106
00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:38,839
Speaker 4: It's immediate, so we'll see it in the April data.

107
00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,320
Speaker 4: We've only just had the February data, so the next

108
00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:45,479
Speaker 4: round of inflation numbers won't reflect that there was a

109
00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:49,520
Speaker 4: small increase in the petrol price in March twenty cents thereabout.

110
00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,640
Speaker 4: So we've got to wait for the April inflation data

111
00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,880
Speaker 4: and then we'll see all of that taken account in

112
00:05:55,960 --> 00:06:00,400
Speaker 4: that month. At the moment, inflation is doing brilliant well.

113
00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,719
Speaker 4: It's down at the three percent both at the headline

114
00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,760
Speaker 4: and core level. But when you push through the expected

115
00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:08,640
Speaker 4: petrol and diesel price increases, you're going to push inflation

116
00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,720
Speaker 4: immediately up to over four and a half percent. Now,

117
00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,560
Speaker 4: it depends on your perspective. You may say, well four

118
00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:18,640
Speaker 4: and a half percent still okay. But for the Reserve Bank,

119
00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,960
Speaker 4: they target is three percent and they'd made excellent progress

120
00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,560
Speaker 4: in getting it down to three percent, and now you're

121
00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:27,520
Speaker 4: giving all of that back and more, And what the

122
00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,320
Speaker 4: governor highlighted that I think is exactly right. Is it's

123
00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:33,360
Speaker 4: going to take us all into next year in order

124
00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:37,200
Speaker 4: to get inflation back down to where we are three percent,

125
00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:40,479
Speaker 4: And so that's a lot of damage, and that's worth

126
00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:45,520
Speaker 4: A good base case scenario where the war ends fairly

127
00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:47,880
Speaker 4: soon and we get a moderation in the oil price

128
00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:48,840
Speaker 4: fairly soon.

129
00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:51,760
Speaker 2: There will be an argument that will say, well, oil

130
00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:55,760
Speaker 2: prices are out of our control. You're bringing your hiking

131
00:06:55,839 --> 00:07:00,240
Speaker 2: interest rates to meet a sort of new target. You're

132
00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:03,440
Speaker 2: damaging the economy while you do it. Policy is the

133
00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,119
Speaker 2: phrase I think they used was mildly restrictive at the moment.

134
00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,920
Speaker 2: It would have to be more than that. So more restrictive.

135
00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:12,560
Speaker 2: Why not just wait it out, let inflation go a

136
00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:15,600
Speaker 2: little bit higher because you can't control the main driver

137
00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:19,000
Speaker 2: of it anyway, And when oil prices come down, if

138
00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:21,320
Speaker 2: oil prices come down, it'll go back to what it

139
00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:22,280
Speaker 2: should have been all along.

140
00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:27,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, So these validity in that argument, right, because you

141
00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,680
Speaker 4: are inflicting a high oil price. High petrol price is

142
00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,960
Speaker 4: pretty much exactly like a tax increase. You're inflicting quite

143
00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,400
Speaker 4: a lot of damage on your economy and it's going

144
00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:41,560
Speaker 4: to hurt. It'll hurt everybody, consumers' businesses, and clearly if

145
00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:43,840
Speaker 4: you're then on top of that hike interest rates, it

146
00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:46,840
Speaker 4: will hurt even more. So why hike interest rates? The

147
00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:50,200
Speaker 4: reason is that and it certainly happens in South Africa.

148
00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:52,120
Speaker 4: So let me just quickly describe it. You go to

149
00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:55,920
Speaker 4: the petrol pump and you fill up your tank next

150
00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:58,640
Speaker 4: week April or wherever, and you're going to be paying.

151
00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,320
Speaker 4: Let's say you end up paying four hundred five hundred

152
00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,880
Speaker 4: rand more for your lead for your tank of fuel,

153
00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:05,680
Speaker 4: which is pretty much what you're going to end up

154
00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,800
Speaker 4: paying for many cars. Now what you should be doing is,

155
00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,720
Speaker 4: therefore you've paid four hundred rand more, You've got the

156
00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:15,200
Speaker 4: same amount of petrol. Now you should be actually spending

157
00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:20,080
Speaker 4: four hundred rand less somewhere else. Now that's not what happens,

158
00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:22,280
Speaker 4: certainly not in South Africa. What we tend to do

159
00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:24,720
Speaker 4: is we continue to consume at the same pace for

160
00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,840
Speaker 4: those other items, and we pay more four hundred rand

161
00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:30,720
Speaker 4: more for our fuel. And so where do we get

162
00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:33,480
Speaker 4: the money to afford those other items? We monetize. We

163
00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:36,600
Speaker 4: put it into our credit card. And so what happens

164
00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,600
Speaker 4: is that our credit starts to go up, and we

165
00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:44,760
Speaker 4: start to accommodate these price hikes, and it allows much

166
00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:48,200
Speaker 4: more easier for companies to look at the situation and

167
00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,320
Speaker 4: pass on the petrol price increase through a whole range

168
00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:54,800
Speaker 4: of other items. And so the Reserve Bank says, well,

169
00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,560
Speaker 4: I've got to stop that pass on effect. I've got

170
00:08:57,600 --> 00:08:59,800
Speaker 4: to try and control it. And the only instrument I've

171
00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:03,360
Speaker 4: got is to make credit more expensive. So then it

172
00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,880
Speaker 4: dampens down the ability, the willingness to use credit, which

173
00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:11,080
Speaker 4: then dampens down the ability for companies to pass on

174
00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:15,119
Speaker 4: these price increases. In other words, you squeezing the economy.

175
00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:18,000
Speaker 4: You're trying to get the economy to take the pain

176
00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:21,120
Speaker 4: of the petrol price hike and not simply pass it on,

177
00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:25,280
Speaker 4: and it becomes embedded. So yes, it inflicts additional pain.

178
00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,040
Speaker 4: The Reserve Bank would argue that it's short term pain

179
00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,680
Speaker 4: for long term gain. Keeping inflation under control is much

180
00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:36,520
Speaker 4: more important over the longer term than the short term

181
00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:38,440
Speaker 4: pain of adding interest rate hikes.

182
00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:41,520
Speaker 2: Kevin Links, thank you so much, really appreciate that. Chief

183
00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:45,320
Speaker 2: economist at Standard Asset Management, nineteen minutes after six. Well, well,

184
00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:47,280
Speaker 2: we look at the current state of our economy and

185
00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,800
Speaker 2: hope against hope that somehow oil prices come down or

186
00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:54,199
Speaker 2: the Middle East conflict eases and we get a chance

187
00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:56,880
Speaker 2: to start growing again. The release today of a series

188
00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:01,280
Speaker 2: of scenarios that look at what could happen three likelihoods

189
00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,720
Speaker 2: for our economy. They come from the Bureau for Economic Research.

190
00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:08,560
Speaker 2: They painting three different pictures. One's called the Maraboo Stalk,

191
00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:11,199
Speaker 2: an undertaker bird. I think you know what that means.

192
00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,960
Speaker 2: The hardy edar scenario in which we muddle through, and

193
00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,360
Speaker 2: the African fish eagle and which we obviously have sustained growth.

194
00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,760
Speaker 2: Senior economists of the Bureau for Economic Research, Doctor Roy

195
00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,680
Speaker 2: Harviman joins me. Now, Roy, good evening, and thanks for

196
00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:28,640
Speaker 2: your time. Let's do the worst scenario first. Please, what

197
00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:30,960
Speaker 2: happens in your Maraboo stalk scenario?

198
00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:34,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, thank you, and good evening, Stephen, and good evening

199
00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,920
Speaker 5: to your listeners. The Marraboo Stalk is pretty much returned

200
00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:41,079
Speaker 5: to our guess what stay captures. We describe the Marriboo

201
00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:44,280
Speaker 5: economy as one that scavengers on hope and various growth,

202
00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:48,800
Speaker 5: but it really failed to reform at locks and decline.

203
00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:52,160
Speaker 5: We see bad spending again, so.

204
00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:56,760
Speaker 6: For example, an increase in spending on unproductive tricker to

205
00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:04,360
Speaker 6: utilities and poor decisions, to tax policy and overall policy environment,

206
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:06,280
Speaker 6: and obviously.

207
00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:08,600
Speaker 5: A return to the days of corruption. So in a way,

208
00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:12,640
Speaker 5: the Marraboo stalk is going back a few years to

209
00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,480
Speaker 5: the state capture the.

210
00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:17,520
Speaker 2: Hardy do We sort of muddle through. I mean, look

211
00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:19,600
Speaker 2: at the hardy doar, So we probably throw a stone

212
00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,240
Speaker 2: or two at the thing. But when we muddle through,

213
00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:25,000
Speaker 2: what does that do to our economy? Does much really

214
00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:25,640
Speaker 2: change at all?

215
00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:27,000
Speaker 7: Yes?

216
00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:28,839
Speaker 5: Well, somebody actually message me and said, oh, they're quite

217
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,040
Speaker 5: offended because they rather like hardier darts. I think it's

218
00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,120
Speaker 5: about the only person I know that lacks the hardy do.

219
00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,200
Speaker 5: Most of us have a very love hate relation for

220
00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:39,080
Speaker 5: the heard, perhaps much like we have a bit of

221
00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,320
Speaker 5: a love hate relationship for the South African economy. At

222
00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:44,160
Speaker 5: the moment. You know, it is growing, but it's not

223
00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:49,079
Speaker 5: growing particularly fast. It's twice as fast as last year,

224
00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:51,640
Speaker 5: but it's still not fast enough to get us going.

225
00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,560
Speaker 5: The hardy dart, as we all know, is a big

226
00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:57,960
Speaker 5: bird that muddles along and squawks and flaps and pretends

227
00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:00,520
Speaker 5: to be doing things. It isn't really making much of

228
00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,240
Speaker 5: a difference. And that's sort of our guess. Where we

229
00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:04,720
Speaker 5: are at the moment is that we are struggling to

230
00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:09,760
Speaker 5: take flights. The economy is muddling along. We're not creating

231
00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:11,800
Speaker 5: jobs at the rate that we would like to create.

232
00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:14,600
Speaker 5: There are reforms, but the reforms are taking a little

233
00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:16,720
Speaker 5: bit of a while to come through. But there are

234
00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:19,679
Speaker 5: signs of hope, there are signs of despair, But overall

235
00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:22,360
Speaker 5: we're just kind of muddling along and flapping our wings

236
00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:23,160
Speaker 5: and hoping for.

237
00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:28,080
Speaker 2: The African fish Eagle scenario talks about three percent growth,

238
00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:32,559
Speaker 2: a three percent pudget deficit, and three percent inflation all

239
00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,000
Speaker 2: in the next three years. I presume quite a lot

240
00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:36,520
Speaker 2: would have to happen to make that work.

241
00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:40,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, quite like it have to happen. We set up

242
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:44,800
Speaker 5: ten things that we think are really great in terms

243
00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,959
Speaker 5: of getting that to happen, and that would be in

244
00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:50,800
Speaker 5: addition to I think the things that are happening at

245
00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:54,200
Speaker 5: a moment in terms of operation. But in later What

246
00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,560
Speaker 5: I find really interesting about the ten things that we

247
00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:02,360
Speaker 5: did is that we did this work based on texts

248
00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,080
Speaker 5: we got from our surveys. You know, we run a

249
00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:09,040
Speaker 5: business confidence index and a Consumer Confidence Index, and then

250
00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,760
Speaker 5: we had two very big sessions with leading CEOs, senior

251
00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:16,520
Speaker 5: civil servants and academics and general business people on the

252
00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:20,400
Speaker 5: economy and that came out as having the same results

253
00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:24,560
Speaker 5: as a Social Research Foundation from correct survey which asked

254
00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:27,200
Speaker 5: ordinary at Africans and it was really interesting that it

255
00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:30,560
Speaker 5: turned around crime and corruption and what is the government

256
00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,200
Speaker 5: doing about crime and corruption? And so we decided to

257
00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,000
Speaker 5: put that as our number one big intervention for getting

258
00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:37,199
Speaker 5: the economy moving again.

259
00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:40,200
Speaker 2: I mean part of that would be removing the National

260
00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:44,920
Speaker 2: Police Commissioner who currently faces criminal charges. What do you

261
00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,000
Speaker 2: say needs to happen to get us to the Phish

262
00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:53,640
Speaker 2: eagle scenario? Is it a political possibility? Is it? I

263
00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:57,520
Speaker 2: mean sometimes with economics you sort of have potential growth

264
00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:00,480
Speaker 2: and potential potential and things like that. So could we

265
00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:02,840
Speaker 2: actually do that in three yar is if we really

266
00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:05,440
Speaker 2: rarely put our minds to it.

267
00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:07,440
Speaker 7: Yes? I think so.

268
00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:09,959
Speaker 5: It is a little bit on our hopeful side. A

269
00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,400
Speaker 5: lot of people ask, well, whilence we aim for five percent?

270
00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:14,960
Speaker 5: You know, we said, well, maybe not five percent, maybe

271
00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,400
Speaker 5: less trial rather trial for three percent and then really

272
00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,160
Speaker 5: apply our minds to get it done. A lot of

273
00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:26,440
Speaker 5: it is a confident shock. And you know, I think,

274
00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:28,840
Speaker 5: as you said, the crime and corruption thing is, you know,

275
00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,200
Speaker 5: one of our first things is simply to do things

276
00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:33,040
Speaker 5: that we are trying to do a ready, which is

277
00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:38,720
Speaker 5: to implement Zondo and with longer Commission recommendations, make the

278
00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:42,640
Speaker 5: National Prosecuting Authority institutionally independent. The sort of issues there

279
00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:46,360
Speaker 5: with both independence and how their function supports the revenue

280
00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,320
Speaker 5: services push on the lsted economy, and those are sort

281
00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:51,440
Speaker 5: of very practical things that are sort of in train,

282
00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:53,040
Speaker 5: but are taking a bit longer than I think we

283
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,440
Speaker 5: all would hope, and that will give a bit of

284
00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:57,440
Speaker 5: a boost of the confidence. Perhaps by the end of

285
00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,920
Speaker 5: twenty thirty we could see those two percent numbers start

286
00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:01,280
Speaker 5: to start appearing.

287
00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:04,880
Speaker 2: Is it really all about I mean to just I mean,

288
00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:08,240
Speaker 2: I realize you've given us a summary of the scenarios

289
00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:11,000
Speaker 2: and there'll be a lot more to it, but just

290
00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:13,840
Speaker 2: to listen to you now, Roy makes it seem like

291
00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:17,320
Speaker 2: it's really just all about government. I mean, yes, of course,

292
00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,760
Speaker 2: so the biggest actor in the economy, but it really

293
00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,640
Speaker 2: seems it's actually government that this rests there.

294
00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:26,320
Speaker 5: Yes, I mean, I think what we're making the argument

295
00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:28,000
Speaker 5: is that, you know, we've come out a long period

296
00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,840
Speaker 5: of very poor governance and actually getting that governance system

297
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,560
Speaker 5: writing and will help us a lot. And it's really

298
00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:35,600
Speaker 5: interesting if you go back into the GDP figures and

299
00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:40,240
Speaker 5: you actually take yourself back to even the late twenty tens,

300
00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,880
Speaker 5: we were growing at three percent. You know, we weren't

301
00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,240
Speaker 5: a post World Cup. There was a little bit bump,

302
00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:48,800
Speaker 5: but then we sort of good about three percent after that,

303
00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,680
Speaker 5: and then as the governance issues started coming in the

304
00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,880
Speaker 5: deterioration of the economy. One of the most interesting things

305
00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:59,960
Speaker 5: about that is is where the money goes. So when

306
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,400
Speaker 5: you raise a round of taxes, how does the government

307
00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,280
Speaker 5: spend that money. When the government spends that money on

308
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,520
Speaker 5: madupia casillia, that money is basically just last to all

309
00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:11,520
Speaker 5: of us. But if the government, for example, spends that

310
00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:14,640
Speaker 5: money on new roads, or gets our ports to work,

311
00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:18,640
Speaker 5: or improves the transmission line, then that actually crows in

312
00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:21,520
Speaker 5: a lot of other money. So I think that it's

313
00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:23,560
Speaker 5: possible for us to get back to that sort of

314
00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:29,720
Speaker 5: twenty fifteen era, maybe even twenty twelve, where things were

315
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,840
Speaker 5: actually better than they are at the moment. Not amazing,

316
00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:36,120
Speaker 5: but much better than they are amazing. I mean, this

317
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:37,760
Speaker 5: is not an overly ambitious scenario.

318
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,480
Speaker 2: I think, Doctor Roy Harrman, thanks very much. Indeed, I'll

319
00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:44,280
Speaker 2: give your love to every hardy diar I see. Doctor

320
00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:47,480
Speaker 2: Roy Harveman is an economist of the Bureau for Economic Research.

321
00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:51,720
Speaker 2: Twenty six minutes after six the Money Show, the Rudy

322
00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:55,000
Speaker 2: fundamvi's portfolio manager of advice works really good evening well.

323
00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:58,840
Speaker 2: Interest rates and as I say, the decision for a

324
00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,360
Speaker 2: whole surprising apsiduce nobody.

325
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:02,960
Speaker 8: Steven.

326
00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:04,920
Speaker 9: Yeah, I don't think anybody was surprised.

327
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,080
Speaker 8: You know, our observed bank cares over quite a long

328
00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:11,280
Speaker 8: period of time become learned to be very conservative, and

329
00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:16,719
Speaker 8: possibly they were criticized in the relatively recent past before

330
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,160
Speaker 8: not cutting more aggressively. As it turns out, right now

331
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,120
Speaker 8: we do have sort of a little bit of fat

332
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:21,719
Speaker 8: in the system.

333
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 9: You know, our interest rates are probably a little bit

334
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:24,399
Speaker 9: higher than they.

335
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:29,320
Speaker 8: Realistically should be for for where inflation historically finds itself,

336
00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:31,399
Speaker 8: and that gives us a little bit of room in

337
00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:34,120
Speaker 8: terms of not having to hike aggressively now.

338
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:38,560
Speaker 9: When the world becomes more uncertain, So that that is useful.

339
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:41,919
Speaker 8: And I think they've certainly their view that this is

340
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,800
Speaker 8: a supply driven shock, and you know when one needs

341
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:46,440
Speaker 8: to sort of at least in the short term, look

342
00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:49,480
Speaker 8: through that until we start start seeing or or getting

343
00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:51,800
Speaker 8: more certainty that it isn't a short term phenomena.

344
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:54,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean we all know, no one knows

345
00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:57,119
Speaker 2: what's going to happen. Our first rand they spent I

346
00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:59,280
Speaker 2: think it's a billion and a half or thereabouts on

347
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 2: increasing their stake in Optasia. They now own around twenty

348
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:04,880
Speaker 2: six percent. How do you view that? I mean, first

349
00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:09,000
Speaker 2: round is can I call them a traditional lender? Optasia

350
00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:10,560
Speaker 2: is completely different.

351
00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,560
Speaker 8: It is completely different, so that they're obviously taking quite

352
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 8: a big bet on the fintech space. And I actually

353
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 8: thinks it's almost two bets. One one is on fintech

354
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:23,320
Speaker 8: and that they want to get ahead of the curve

355
00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,520
Speaker 8: of their competition. And I suspect it's also a way

356
00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:30,320
Speaker 8: for them to get better coverage in Africa without doing

357
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 8: it via rolling out a branch network of optationis obviously

358
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 8: quite significantly exposed in African lending, So it's a both

359
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:43,320
Speaker 8: I think both the technology and a geographic approach from

360
00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,840
Speaker 8: first round, and yeah, they're taking quite a big bet

361
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:51,240
Speaker 8: roughly another billion and a half on round to increase

362
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,160
Speaker 8: the stake to twenty six percent, which has to make

363
00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:57,480
Speaker 8: one wonder whether they will at some stage and try

364
00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:01,320
Speaker 8: and increase that further to actually go and of dominance

365
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,919
Speaker 8: take in the business. But certainly they seem to be

366
00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,399
Speaker 8: comfortable with the rate of growth at this stage and

367
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 8: the art for growth for our pleasure going forward, and

368
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:14,320
Speaker 8: so that is positive. And certainly bus Trends has got

369
00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:19,680
Speaker 8: a history for investing in technology and adding value to

370
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 8: the customers via that process. So one sort of prilly

371
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 8: has to give them the benefit of the darta.

372
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:30,080
Speaker 2: I mean, there's so many different things going on. I

373
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:33,760
Speaker 2: mean that essentially the US President Donald Trump seems to

374
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:37,199
Speaker 2: be suggesting that in fact, you know, ten boats are

375
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,760
Speaker 2: allowed through the gift of Moses, a gift from Iran.

376
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,120
Speaker 2: I mean, it's impossible to know how this plays out,

377
00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 2: and oil markets are still in a very difficult position

378
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:46,399
Speaker 2: as a result.

379
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's very true.

380
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 8: And you know, typically these geopolitical things don't the impact

381
00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 8: on markets, don't tend to last for four extended periods,

382
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 8: and markets reason ptably soon get used to the idea

383
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 8: that things are changing, and then then tend to tend

384
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:08,359
Speaker 8: to relax. But I must say this is the probably

385
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 8: the circumstances with the worst quality information that I've seen,

386
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 8: you know, since since I've sort of been exposed to

387
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 8: financial markets, and and I.

388
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,840
Speaker 9: Think that's part of the problem. At the moment. We're

389
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 9: getting very very poor quality information.

390
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 8: It doesn't matter which side of the spectrum on sort

391
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:27,240
Speaker 8: of both sides are claiming that the other side is

392
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 8: begging for a shooting stance a little basically, and that

393
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 8: leaves everybody who's trying to make decisions based on our

394
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,959
Speaker 8: pressing activity in a bit of a quandary.

395
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 9: Certainly the situation.

396
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 8: And it also means I think the markets haven't although

397
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,879
Speaker 8: they've sold off quite materially, they're not pressing in a

398
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 8: very very bad case scenario. And one can dream up

399
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 8: really nasty scenarios if you, if you put your mind

400
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,119
Speaker 8: to it, you know, we I think the world is

401
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 8: hoping that we see things calm down and come to

402
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 8: a more peaceful set maybe June July or so.

403
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 2: Rudy, Thank you. Rudy vandamva's portfolio manager Advice works. Just

404
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 2: gone six thirty.

405
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:09,159
Speaker 7: What's up?

406
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 1: Stephen on seven to seven O two one seven o two.

407
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 2: Well, earlier you heard me ask how small a man,

408
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,879
Speaker 2: how small a boy really is Donald Trump? That he

409
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,239
Speaker 2: has to put pressure on France. Do not invite us

410
00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 2: to the G seven otherwise he won't go. Well a

411
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:29,200
Speaker 2: voice note in response to that, Steph, and your houssle

412
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,400
Speaker 2: man is Donald Trump. But how the smaller man.

413
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 10: Is the French president for going I go find Donald

414
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 10: you have your way.

415
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 11: Go nuts.

416
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,640
Speaker 2: My goodness, I have to say that was my thought

417
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 2: as well. France has always was so independent. I've got

418
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 2: to tell you I don't think Trump has anything to

419
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 2: do with this. I think frankly it's all about rugby.

420
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 2: But anyway, we've got another voice. Note this evening we

421
00:21:52,680 --> 00:22:01,959
Speaker 2: were talking about those birds scenarios for our economy. If

422
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 2: you don't recognize it because you haven't heard it for

423
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 2: five minutes, obviously a hardy dart one of the bird scenarios.

424
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 2: It's nice to know there's not only human beings who

425
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,120
Speaker 2: listen to the Money Show. Thanks for that twenty two

426
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 2: minutes You've made my day. Twenty two minutes to seven

427
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 2: seven o two with Stephen Curtis.

428
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 1: Email him on Stephen at seven o two dot co Dotzi.

429
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,439
Speaker 2: Seventeen minutes now to seven. As you know, one of

430
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,160
Speaker 2: the most important conversations we have on the Money Show

431
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 2: all the time is about our unemployment rate and how

432
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 2: and why nearly thirty three percent of our people don't

433
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 2: have jobs. But sometimes I think we miss the fact

434
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 2: that most of the countries around us have the same problem.

435
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 2: Just to throw some numbers, Namibia's unemployment rate is nearly

436
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 2: thirty seven percent. In Iswatini it's thirty four, in Lasutu

437
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 2: it's thirty. Zimbabwe officially claims their rate is eight point

438
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 2: six percent, but I think you and I both know

439
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,880
Speaker 2: that's not true. So what's happening in the Southern African

440
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 2: region that's leading to such high levels of unemployment in

441
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 2: so many countries? We start this conversation with Titus macconve

442
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 2: and economists based in Zimbabwe. Titus, good evening and thank

443
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 2: you for your time. I've seen estimates of Zimbabwe's unemployment

444
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:19,919
Speaker 2: rate ranging from five percent to ninety five percent. Do

445
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 2: you have an idea of what the real figure might be?

446
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 11: Okay, thank you very much for that important question.

447
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 12: Yes, indeed, the official figures that will get from Zimbabwe

448
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 12: is that inflation is sortry unemployment is just above eight percent,

449
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 12: which may be misleading, and some economic agents indicate that

450
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 12: the unemployment could be above eighty percent. But so what

451
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 12: causes this huge disparity in the figures that I just

452
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 12: closed is that Zimbabwe is highly informalized. And the argument

453
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 12: that comes from the government in Zimbabwe is that yes,

454
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 12: in the people are employed in the informal sector, would

455
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 12: you consider them as unemployed or they are employed? So

456
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,439
Speaker 12: about seventy percent of zimbab economic activity is done in

457
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 12: the informal sector and there's huge employment in the in

458
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,920
Speaker 12: the informal sector. So it depends from the point of

459
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 12: view that you are arguing. Are you saying that those

460
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,479
Speaker 12: that are in the informal sector and those that they

461
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 12: have employed are the employable citizens? Is employment in Zimbabwe

462
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 12: or should we excluded from calculating the unemployment rates? And

463
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 12: if you know, zbabweans is gone through a series of

464
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 12: economic changes, structure or changes in the economy. We were

465
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 12: in agriculture driven economy and a significant number of people

466
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 12: was employed in the agricultural sector, but there was a

467
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 12: structure of declining that in that cratural sector due to

468
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 12: interventions that were done by the government the lend reforms

469
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 12: things like that, it significantly affected the supply chain and

470
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 12: that is disrupted employment formal employment in those along the

471
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 12: supply chain. So yes, indeed, it's always a problem that

472
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 12: we have in Zimbabwe in that do we classify people

473
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 12: that are employed in the informal sector, is employed or

474
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 12: should we exclude them? If we do include them, yes,

475
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:21,400
Speaker 12: the unemployment rates in Mbabwe is significantly low. But if

476
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 12: we are to exclude those that are into subsistence way

477
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 12: of saviving and those that are employed in the informal sector,

478
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 12: you find that unemployment rates Zimbabwe is significantly high. So

479
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 12: the formal employment in Zimbabwe excluding the informal sector, yes,

480
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 12: it's a what is some trend. But if we are

481
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 12: to filter in the informal sector and those that are

482
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 12: employed in the informal sector, you find that the unemployment

483
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 12: rate is significantly low. So that is the reason why

484
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 12: we have got a huge difference, is huge margins in

485
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 12: terms of the figures that are disclosed in terms of

486
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 12: the unemployment rates.

487
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 11: In Zymbabwe and titles.

488
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 2: I mean, has the government over the years, and I've

489
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,360
Speaker 2: been different presidents and power, has it just not invested

490
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 2: in development and moving away from mining and of course

491
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 2: agriculture's decline so quickly.

492
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 10: So.

493
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,919
Speaker 12: You find that we have moved in phases and the

494
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 12: economic circles in this Babe, they moved very fast. We

495
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 12: move into economic recesions quickly, we moved into economic recovery

496
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,640
Speaker 12: as quickly we get into booms and then we got

497
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:26,679
Speaker 12: into the slums again.

498
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 11: So that is significantly affected.

499
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 12: The police approached by the government in terms of trying

500
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 12: to create unemployment and the focus in the Zimbabwe mainly

501
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 12: has been drifted away a build from employment police targets

502
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 12: to mainly targeting inflation. Both the problem that we've experienced

503
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 12: over the last years or so he has been inflation.

504
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 12: We have recorded the highest levels of inflation in the

505
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 12: world some figures by the end of two thousand and eight.

506
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 11: If I'm not mistaken, we're not even able colic and inflation.

507
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,879
Speaker 12: The focus of the burbling policies mainly have been on

508
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 12: current stability as well as inflation targeting.

509
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 11: We have not been really focusing as a country on unemployment.

510
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 12: But to answer the question, years the government has been

511
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 12: trying to come up with ways in supporting the supply

512
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 12: chain along the water supply chain, because these dependence on

513
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 12: extraction industry. Yes, it creates serious problems of unemployment. And

514
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 12: the significant about seventy percent of economicativity in the BBWE

515
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 12: is around the agricultural sector, of which it was disrupted

516
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,439
Speaker 12: by lend reform. So most of the people that are

517
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 12: in the creatural sector, which is the primer or the

518
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 12: first first stage of the supply chain, they are a

519
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 12: significant jump of people that are there, and it does

520
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 12: affect the water apply chain and this barbe the cost

521
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 12: of doing business is significantly. I saw you find that

522
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 12: areas such as the manufacturing sector in the civil sector

523
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 12: actually first significant.

524
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 11: I love Hi coast of running business.

525
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 12: That's why we have been mainly relying on them on

526
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 12: the primer center. But of late the government is trying

527
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 12: to come up with the economy that is private center

528
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 12: driven by supporting the manufacture and center to raise the

529
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 12: business only five fears are going to do to take

530
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,360
Speaker 12: about thirty days or more. But of late they've come

531
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 12: up with is of doing business reforms in order to

532
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 12: support that is of doing business our side by producing

533
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 12: the licenses as well as some registration fees which are

534
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:34,199
Speaker 12: restrict in growth in the latter stages of the subplachin.

535
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 2: When titles locover, I'm afraid we are going to have

536
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 2: to leave you there. Thank you. I really appreciate a

537
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 2: very clear explanation. And economists based in Zimbabwe. Doctor Paril

538
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 2: Hotler is our former statistics in general, but a man

539
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 2: with a lot of experience of the situation in las Suited.

540
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 2: Doctor Hotler, good evening, good to talk to you again.

541
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 2: The unemployment rate in Lasuit is thirty percent. Why is

542
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 2: it so high there?

543
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 13: Oh?

544
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 7: Yes, Lesuto unemployment relatively high, not very far from the

545
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 7: one in South Africa. But this unemployment came about factually

546
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 7: since the mining activities in South Africa flowed. Otherwise the

547
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 7: sout you enjoyed levels of employment that were very high.

548
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 7: For one hundred thousand or one hundred and thirty thousand

549
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 7: men would be employed in the mines in South Africa

550
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 7: and maybe another five thousand people employed in their farms

551
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 7: in South Africa. So those levels of the current levels

552
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 7: of unemployment taking with the closure of the mining industry,

553
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 7: particularly in the gold field, to a miliorate the situation.

554
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 7: There has been a lot of manufacturing that came by,

555
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 7: particularly employing women agriculture. Yes, the is but drought and

556
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 7: land erosion were minimized the scale at which agricultures the form,

557
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 7: although I could see now that the kind of stock

558
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 7: livestock that too now real improved, quite improved. The cemental

559
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 7: the Brahman they've moved away from the Africana and unfortunately also.

560
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 5: From the Gurli hading be Gui.

561
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 7: Bulls. They they've moved to the Brahman Cenental and then

562
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 7: of course the ship. So agriculture is a very predominant fact,

563
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 7: but largely in animal husband But yes, the unemployment have

564
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 7: increased because of the closure of mind industries of.

565
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,719
Speaker 2: Africa, and has the government there not try to develop

566
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 2: the economy there to employ Basuto people in Lasutu they have.

567
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 7: That's very difficult when historically you have a relationship with

568
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 7: the county for over two hundred years, where you're almost

569
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 7: your structure of society is destined to a mind to

570
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 7: work in. The minds come back home to the so too.

571
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 7: But now young boys go over tools the sircumcision schools,

572
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 7: and then you can see that that culture emerging. And

573
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 7: previously there was the way out which man the present

574
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 7: once it's gone to in the world, and where on't

575
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 7: the mind and then come back. But now people are

576
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 7: trapped in the of course if they think like the

577
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 7: Highlands water scheme and they what there's a lot of

578
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 7: construction there.

579
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 2: Doctor Pardi Lahotla, thank you our former statistics in general.

580
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 2: But as you can hear the last experience of Lsuitu.

581
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 2: Isaac Matzerko's an economist at ned Bank. Isaac, good evening.

582
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 2: I mean they're very variable estimates for unemployment in Mozambique.

583
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 2: I presume there's a big informal sector there too. Which

584
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 2: figure do you think is the most accurate well stream?

585
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 14: Then if we have to look at from our sector employment,

586
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 14: I will say that, you know, it's a pretty good

587
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 14: a mining sector. We've got the fishing sector and you

588
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 14: know now the construction of the l gfils and tourism,

589
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 14: so you know it's it's sort of a similar situation

590
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 14: as South Africa's. You know, unemployment could be as high

591
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 14: in stay till forty percent. But as you highlighted, you know,

592
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 14: the informal sector is quite big in Mozambique, so that

593
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:30,239
Speaker 14: tends to you know, be a source of income for

594
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 14: the rural communities.

595
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 2: In particular, the Moses smelter is closing and I mean

596
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 2: some figures say it's been responsible for five percent of

597
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 2: Mozambique CDP. I mean, I presume that's going to push

598
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 2: unemployment or formal unemployment, if I can use that phrase

599
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 2: still higher.

600
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 14: Sure, the numbers I've seen indicate that five thousands direct

601
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 14: jobs will be lost, and the number for indirect jobs

602
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 14: i e. All the suppliers for us to this mussile plant,

603
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:06,959
Speaker 14: it's estimated at almost double that. So definitely that's a

604
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 14: huge impact on the Mozambique economy. Only not only through jobs,

605
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 14: by the way, but also text collections for insidance. You know,

606
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 14: the estimate is that muzzle directly accounted for about zero

607
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 14: point two percent of government taxes, So the mock boiling

608
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 14: of the plant is unfortunately a negative factor for government finances.

609
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 2: Isaac, I mean, the real bigger question with all of

610
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 2: this is we have these really high rates of unemployment

611
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 2: across Southern Africa. Are there any particular reasons as to

612
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:46,719
Speaker 2: why it's so high across this entire region? I mean,

613
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 2: there are other countries in the world with high unemployment,

614
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 2: but for us, it's the entire region.

615
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:58,239
Speaker 14: Sirl Stevens. I always sort of argue that it is

616
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 14: due to the history of dependence on primary sectors, particularly mining,

617
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 14: the Southern African economists, unfortunately have not been able to

618
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 14: significantly that specify from the mining sector primarily and even

619
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 14: or the excuse me, some of the major sectors are

620
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 14: highly tied to mining, and we've seen mining being on

621
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 14: decline relative to other sectors across the globe for a

622
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 14: number of decades. So as a result of that, you know,

623
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 14: unfortunately South Africa, Southern African economists have not been able

624
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 14: to create jobs on a large scale.

625
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 2: I mean, all of this was foreseeable, and I realized that,

626
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 2: you know, there's a very difficult political history in these countries,

627
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,399
Speaker 2: but all of the governments at the time, no matter

628
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 2: which government they were, would have known mining wouldn't go

629
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,839
Speaker 2: on forever. And yet it seems that none of them

630
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 2: really did much about it. I mean, do we need

631
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,280
Speaker 2: to stop seeing unemployment as just a South African problem

632
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 2: and see it maybe as a regional problem.

633
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 14: It is definitely a original problem, and I will say

634
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 14: to you, you know, another point I'll add is that

635
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 14: historically we know that the South African mining sector, which

636
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 14: was much bigger than in the region, drew a lot

637
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:31,799
Speaker 14: of labor from the neighboring countries. So with this African

638
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 14: mining sector shrinking at least relative to the science of

639
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 14: the economy, we saw employment being being lost and of

640
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 14: course that affected neighboring countries such as Lusoto for reasons.

641
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 14: And you know, we've been quite slow in diversifying, and

642
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 14: that diversification, for instance, should have started with upskilling labor

643
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 14: in Southern Africa, you know, moving away from the primary

644
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 14: sectors and ensuring that for instance, the educational outcomes are

645
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 14: better and help or at least pushed the labor process

646
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 14: chances of being chainable in non mining sectors of the economy.

647
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 2: So, I mean, if you look at the regional economic

648
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 2: history of Southern Africa is kind of still in a

649
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 2: way being dominated by what dominated it from I suppose

650
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:29,359
Speaker 2: around eighteen fifty, the discovery of diamonds in Kimberley, then

651
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,839
Speaker 2: the huge influx of people into the advices runt when

652
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 2: gold was discovered after eighteen eighty six. We all are

653
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,359
Speaker 2: kind of suffering from the same problem, the same kind

654
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 2: of I don't know, what would you call it a

655
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 2: minerals hangover.

656
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 14: If you like, yeah, you know, like economic history, you know,

657
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 14: literally a faid as the Dutch disease or the cause

658
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,840
Speaker 14: of natural resources if you like. And this is basically

659
00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 14: referres to economists that way on natural resources have and

660
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 14: sort of you know, grew. There's very high dependence on

661
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 14: natural resources. Can extend that when they are natural resources

662
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 14: were depleted, those economies were not able to move away

663
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 14: from that dependence. You know, it's happening a lot in

664
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 14: Botswana and right now Botswana and even Namibia and Angola

665
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 14: are to a large extent due to the decline in

666
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 14: the market for natural diamonds. Those economies are just under

667
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 14: so much pleasure and diversification of what have not really

668
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 14: benefited or really brought in you know, significant results.

669
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 2: If our economy, South Africa's economy starts to grow again

670
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,839
Speaker 2: and we created jobs, would that have an impact on

671
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 2: our neighbors the suit to Morzmbique Namibia.

672
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 14: Well, I mean, we've got to be honest about the

673
00:37:56,239 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 14: fact that we draw a lot of neighbor from bas economics.

674
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 14: But even you know, in addition to that, let me

675
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 14: say we as suppliers of goods and services to the

676
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 14: laboring economists, and what would they have to happen in

677
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 14: those economies is that you know, they would have to

678
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:21,760
Speaker 14: generate secondary jobs from the economics in talentages with South Africa,

679
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 14: I e. You know, just don't just buy finished goods

680
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 14: from South Africa if you can source you know, semi

681
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 14: processed are goods and then you know there's father value

682
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 14: edition in those economies that would be quite helpful in

683
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 14: creating jobs in those economists.

684
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 2: Isaac Matzo economists a netbank, Thanks very.

685
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 1: Much, and now The Money Show with Leven on seven

686
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 1: o two Network Little The Money Show with Stephen Curtis

687
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 1: is brought to you by Abst Islamic Business Bank celebrating

688
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 1: twenty years of banking.

689
00:38:56,160 --> 00:39:00,279
Speaker 2: Rooted in values is a registered FSP. Eight minutes after

690
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 2: seven Well plenty to come. Obviously, we'll speak to super

691
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 2: malele Zondie. If you're a parent, if you have a

692
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 2: young person in your life who's on social media, you

693
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 2: don't want to miss Supermoleres about a court ruling in

694
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 2: the United States and the impact that I think that's

695
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 2: going to have. We'll talk in Small Business Focus tonight

696
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 2: about the power of the face to face presentation when

697
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 2: you're setting across from someone and actually sort of able

698
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 2: to sell them on your product, Jeremy Lang's the managing

699
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:31,759
Speaker 2: director at Business Partners Limited. And then our momentum in

700
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 2: investment school tonight, our momentum and a very difficult global economy.

701
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 2: Yes we had an interest rate hold today, but the

702
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 2: investment case for South Africa I thought a very interesting subject.

703
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 2: Really looking forward to that. From seven thirty this evening,

704
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 2: good to have you along double one, double A three

705
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 2: oh seven, O two two one four four, six oh

706
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 2: five six seven and voice notes on seven two, seven

707
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 2: oh two one, seven oh two, The LNY.

708
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 3: Show with Stephen Kruger's Live on ninety two point seven

709
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 3: and one six, the streaming on the Prime Media.

710
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,240
Speaker 1: Plus NAP and DStv channel eight five six.

711
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 2: All of those sense statements that's going to be quoted

712
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 2: in newspaper, after websites, after radio broadcast today from Willworth's,

713
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,439
Speaker 2: and what they're saying is that the incoming CEO Sam

714
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 2: and Goomeni's the CEO designate for the moment, will receive

715
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 2: a portion of shares in Willworth's that are worth fifty

716
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 2: million round. He only gets them in five years time

717
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:30,719
Speaker 2: if the shares have doubled in value by them, in

718
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 2: other words, of their one hundred rand a ship basically

719
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,840
Speaker 2: has to get. I think it's fifteen percent growth in

720
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 2: headline earnings every year during that time. And it was

721
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 2: so interesting because we have been talking about remuneration, how

722
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 2: much we pay executives, literally for as long as we've

723
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,880
Speaker 2: had executives. I understand why Wilworth does this is a

724
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 2: pretty standard thing. Quite often. It's sort of, you know,

725
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 2: basically makes sure that his interest is aligned with the

726
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,720
Speaker 2: interests of Willworth's as a sort of long term ventance

727
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,319
Speaker 2: done around the world. But we still, after all of

728
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 2: this time, having debates about how best to reward CEOs.

729
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 2: I find that really interesting. Fifty million rand look at

730
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 2: would concentrate my mind. It will get me out of

731
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 2: bed in the morning, I must tell you. But if

732
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:14,760
Speaker 2: you're the head of Wilworth's Foods, I think you're probably

733
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 2: pretty well motivated already. I don't think he's someone who

734
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 2: requires the extra motivation. It's a really interesting conversation your thoughts,

735
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:25,280
Speaker 2: I mean, is that the best way to make executives

736
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:28,879
Speaker 2: actually perform give them shares in that particular way? Oh

737
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 2: seven two seven oh two one seven o two.

738
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 1: How many shows take Thursday?

739
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 2: Well, Matt has now been in order to pay over

740
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 2: six million US dollars to a young person because a

741
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 2: court found that she had become addicted to social media

742
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 2: at age six and that these platforms were deliberately engineered

743
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 2: to make that happen. YouTube also found guilty of the

744
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 2: same thing. You've never seen a young person hitting YouTube

745
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:58,239
Speaker 2: and just watching again and again in again, or just

746
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:02,320
Speaker 2: watching the videos go past their screen. It's astonishing, it's scary.

747
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 2: Super maelea Zundie is a take expert joining us now

748
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 2: super Mallelo. Good evening. So what exactly was the accusation

749
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 2: against these social media networks?

750
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 15: Hello, Stephen, So the young person is basically saying or

751
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:22,359
Speaker 15: are suing them for saying one, she's been addicted to

752
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 15: to meta products since the age of six, and she's

753
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 15: been addicted to YouTube since the age of ten. So

754
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 15: the lawsuits was basically on how they are designed and

755
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:35,759
Speaker 15: engineered to make young people addicted to them. And once

756
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 15: you've created an account, it's very difficult as a young

757
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 15: person or as anybody really to leave these platforms. And

758
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 15: so it's not a landmark case because they've always been

759
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 15: conversations around this and but not quite a lawsuit to

760
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:53,880
Speaker 15: this leven on social media addiction, and it seems like

761
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 15: lobby groups. I decided to support the case, and very

762
00:42:56,760 --> 00:43:00,359
Speaker 15: many lobby groups were testifying on her behalf as well.

763
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,399
Speaker 2: So I mean, just to be clear, what I find

764
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 2: so staggering about this is you had adults, you know,

765
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:10,720
Speaker 2: grown people in a room at MATA and at Google

766
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 2: trying deliberately to make very young children keep watching. So

767
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 2: trying deliberately to keep my children, your children, super malele

768
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 2: addicted to their service. I mean the words for that,

769
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:25,840
Speaker 2: but the word I'm just going to use on the

770
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:26,720
Speaker 2: radio is evil.

771
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 15: Well, the thing is they I suppose they can always

772
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 15: say that they have age restrictions, and it's often thirteen

773
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 15: on a lot of these platforms. But at the same time,

774
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 15: you also do know that, and I think when this

775
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 15: is being done, there is a knownedge that, yes, in theory,

776
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 15: you might say that there's an age restriction of the

777
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 15: thirteen and to block them out if they say that

778
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 15: they are younger than thirteen years old, But who checks that.

779
00:43:56,640 --> 00:44:00,399
Speaker 15: That's also another thing because they can put in any

780
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 15: date of birth and suddenly they're hooked. They have friends

781
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 15: in school that help them with these accountants. Suddenly they're hooked.

782
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:09,800
Speaker 2: I mean, the other thing is that you're putting content

783
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 2: on four people younger than thirteen, and you know you're

784
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 2: doing that, so I think, you know, I think I'll

785
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 2: probably throw that back in their face. So, I mean,

786
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:19,479
Speaker 2: the other argument would come that the parents, the care

787
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 2: give us, the guardians had a responsibility here.

788
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 15: Totally. Yes, the care give us do have a responsibility,

789
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 15: and that's often been said, But how many caregivers can

790
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 15: actually say, or how many parents can actually say that

791
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 15: they know that their children don't have access through a

792
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 15: device when they're not around, when they're at school, that

793
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 15: there isn't another child who brought the device into the school,

794
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:47,799
Speaker 15: that they could be they could be checking when there

795
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 15: are wherever where there's a computer lapp, that they are

796
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:55,319
Speaker 15: not secretly looking at YouTube by logging on with an

797
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 15: account that has an age restriction, that they made.

798
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:00,839
Speaker 4: Up all these things.

799
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 15: And interestingly as well, that this is also not the

800
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 15: only case right where this one was looking at addiction,

801
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 15: that there has been another case where they have to

802
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 15: pay I believe it's about six billion rand in South

803
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 15: African terms in New Mexico again also in the United States,

804
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 15: and this one is on content, and on the fact

805
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:29,240
Speaker 15: that they knowingly ignore the fact that there are people

806
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 15: who pitch adult contents to young children. One of the

807
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 15: people testifying their said there was even a sex proposal

808
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 15: to an undera child that they also ignored, And there

809
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 15: are many such cases that they're accused of. And there

810
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 15: they also not that case because they said, listen, they

811
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:51,799
Speaker 15: need to pay an equivalent of what to be over

812
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,840
Speaker 15: six billion rand if in South African terms.

813
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 2: So, I mean, do you think meta and YouTube are

814
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 2: they going to change the way they do things because

815
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,880
Speaker 2: this is I mean, this is certainly bad for their image,

816
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:07,719
Speaker 2: for their pr and this is a court finding, and sometimes,

817
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 2: particularly in the States, one court finding can lead to

818
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:13,479
Speaker 2: other court findings can lead to all sorts of things.

819
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:17,439
Speaker 15: Oh well, in these particular cases, it seems like they're

820
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 15: saying that they're not at fault here. They feel like

821
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 15: they've been found guilty of something that they shouldn't have

822
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 15: been found guilty of. So in all nightiness, you we're

823
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 15: going to see appeals as they are trying to fight

824
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 15: this and saying that wait a minute, we've created all

825
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 15: sorts of mechanisms through ensure that safety is their children

826
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:44,240
Speaker 15: are not their children are not exposed to the content

827
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 15: that they shouldn't be exposed to. So already from the

828
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:52,960
Speaker 15: statements that they are releasing and from the spokespersons that

829
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 15: are seeing, they're saying, well, they're not at fault here.

830
00:46:57,600 --> 00:47:00,400
Speaker 15: They've been found guilty of something that is not to

831
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:00,919
Speaker 15: their doing.

832
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:03,920
Speaker 2: So I mean see Pumelaa. It's difficult to read this,

833
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 2: but you get a sense that bits of the world

834
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 2: are beginning to really turn against social media for people

835
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:12,239
Speaker 2: under the age of eighteen or sixteen, and thinks Australia

836
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:14,879
Speaker 2: that did this first. Other countries are looking at it.

837
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 2: I'm almost certain that if you went into South Africa

838
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:21,440
Speaker 2: and ask parents, that would be an overwhelming ban until

839
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 2: the age of sixteen. I mean, as the balance, as

840
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:26,839
Speaker 2: the tide. Let me use that phrase, turning against these

841
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:28,240
Speaker 2: organizations a little.

842
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:32,400
Speaker 15: Bit, well totally. It almost reminds you of some of

843
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 15: the cases, for example, the turn against the cigarettes industry,

844
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 15: the tobacco industry in the nineteen nineties.

845
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 5: For example.

846
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 15: This is sort of similar to that for something that

847
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 15: was one socially acceptable is being seen to have massive

848
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:51,640
Speaker 15: repercussions and negative repercussions, and in this particular case, the

849
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 15: young lady who was suing in that particular case said,

850
00:47:56,480 --> 00:48:00,440
Speaker 15: it's severely impact that has social skills and her self socially,

851
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:04,399
Speaker 15: and she fell into a deep depression because of her

852
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:08,200
Speaker 15: addition to these social media platforms. So that definitely is

853
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 15: a turn, and it's sort of like similar to a

854
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:13,880
Speaker 15: turn that once upon a time we saw against the

855
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 15: togack hole industry.

856
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:18,239
Speaker 2: See promellela Zante. Thanks so much, take a expert. I mean,

857
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 2: I'm not one to give parenting advice. I know how

858
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 2: difficult it is to bring up kids. I know keeping

859
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 2: them busy helps, but keeping them busiest hard work, battish.

860
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:30,759
Speaker 2: How you keep them of social media advice? Please? Oh

861
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:33,360
Speaker 2: seven two seven oh two one seven two eighteen minutes

862
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:34,799
Speaker 2: after seven The.

863
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:37,720
Speaker 1: Money shows small business focus.

864
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 2: Well, when you're going out there as an entrepreneur and

865
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:43,399
Speaker 2: you're trying to sell your business, you're trying to sell

866
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 2: your product, you're trying to get it into various places,

867
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 2: you're trying to get people to actually do business with you,

868
00:48:49,200 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 2: it seems there's probably nothing better actually than doing it

869
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:56,920
Speaker 2: face to face, not on zoom, I mean face to face.

870
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 2: Jeremy Lang is a managing director at Business partner is limited, Jeremy,

871
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,319
Speaker 2: A good evening, Am I right here? I mean it's

872
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 2: face to face interaction. You know that the feel of

873
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:09,080
Speaker 2: someone's hand as you shake it still really the most

874
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 2: effective way for a business owner to get someone a

875
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 2: potential client, to build that trust relationship.

876
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 13: Hey, good evening, Stephen. And also to your listeners, yes, yes, indeed,

877
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:23,280
Speaker 13: quantity to where the wall's going from a technology evolution

878
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 13: where the networking events get togethers that are still attend

879
00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 13: still very very well attended, and it seems to be

880
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 13: and maybe it's just the way we are wired as

881
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:34,800
Speaker 13: human beings. A desire to want to interact in person

882
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 13: shape the warm end of someone else meeting with a smile,

883
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:42,760
Speaker 13: welcome them to the event, and interact with people in person.

884
00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 2: So I mean an in person network event you know

885
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:49,080
Speaker 2: you have it's not easy to get. You have to

886
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 2: get a new car, you have to pay for petrol,

887
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 2: you have to go there. You could someone could say,

888
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 2: oh you could do this on zoom. I mean I'm

889
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 2: just trying to think of a zoom meeting with one

890
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 2: hundred people on it. How does that sort of in

891
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 2: person environments? I mean, what sort of opportunities do they create.

892
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 13: I think firstly, if you compare, whilst online is very

893
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 13: very convenient, it's maybe limited to one person speaking at

894
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 13: a time, versus going to an event where it's absolute

895
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:18,920
Speaker 13: chaos in terms of noise in a room, lots of

896
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 13: multiple conversations happening at the same time, and your ability

897
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:25,439
Speaker 13: to move between one conversation to the next is much

898
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:28,839
Speaker 13: easier in person, where online you're somewhat restricted in terms

899
00:50:28,880 --> 00:50:31,759
Speaker 13: of how many people can speak at a time, potentially

900
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 13: how many people you are limited to accessing within a

901
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:38,000
Speaker 13: thirty minute sixty minute period. So I think the energy

902
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 13: that you feel in the room, you get a sense

903
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:42,879
Speaker 13: of where the circles of influence are, where you need

904
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:46,360
Speaker 13: to move towards, or is close more closely aligned to

905
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 13: your objectives in attending the event. So in person, for me,

906
00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:53,640
Speaker 13: SI offers lots of benefit. You meet people across multiple

907
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 13: multiple industries and Stephen there I say, sometimes it's the

908
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:02,920
Speaker 13: odd conversation that the bridge table or in the bathroom

909
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 13: waiting to go into the bathroom. So unintentional opportunities also

910
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 13: presents itself from that perspective.

911
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 2: So I was going to bring that up. I mean,

912
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:14,600
Speaker 2: it's the element of chance, which I think actually plays

913
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:16,760
Speaker 2: a much bigger role in business than we want to admit.

914
00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 2: Where you bump into a person. I mean so often

915
00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:22,120
Speaker 2: someone will say, well this happened, or I bumped into

916
00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:24,640
Speaker 2: this person, or they have the same problem, or they

917
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 2: had lost their their parking card and so I you know,

918
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,560
Speaker 2: things like that. I mean that element of chance. Will

919
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 2: you bump into someone who actually suddenly you strike up

920
00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:35,920
Speaker 2: a conversation and two weeks later you know you're signing

921
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:36,239
Speaker 2: a deal.

922
00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:41,279
Speaker 13: Yeah, that's happened to me on several occasions, even to

923
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:42,800
Speaker 13: the extent of, oh.

924
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 11: This is what you do.

925
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 13: You should speak to that guy with the gray suit

926
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:48,880
Speaker 13: or this woman with the blue shirt. She's looking for

927
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 13: exactly what you're offering. So that kind of interconnectedness within

928
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:57,720
Speaker 13: an environment of an in person event is really strong.

929
00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:01,319
Speaker 13: And also it creates an impression and right people. I

930
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 13: think the memory it creates as much stronger. People remember

931
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:07,600
Speaker 13: a location, they remember remember an event, they remember the

932
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:11,640
Speaker 13: way in which you interacted with them, gestures, posture responses,

933
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:16,880
Speaker 13: those For me, the multi sensory encoding I think strengthens

934
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:18,399
Speaker 13: memory and experiences like that.

935
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,799
Speaker 2: So if you go to a networking event that has

936
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 2: has people from different industries. So if you go to

937
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:27,520
Speaker 2: people from your industry, that's one thing. Different industries. Is

938
00:52:27,560 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 2: that better? I mean you can there'll be a very

939
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 2: different vibe, a very different flow of ideas.

940
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:40,839
Speaker 13: Perhaps, yes, And I've been too many of both. Industry

941
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:45,400
Speaker 13: specific tends to the similar narratives tend to come up,

942
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:49,319
Speaker 13: similar challenges tend to come up, similar solutions tend to

943
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 13: come up. The multi industry, for one, is quite dynamic

944
00:52:52,719 --> 00:52:57,719
Speaker 13: because although we share universal challenges sometimes in business, the

945
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:01,360
Speaker 13: way in which different industries so all them is different

946
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:04,120
Speaker 13: and you can actually learn from that from that, the

947
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 13: way in which they think, the way in which they

948
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:09,839
Speaker 13: approach a challenge, although the problems are universal from HR

949
00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 13: to access to capital and so on. So both have

950
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:17,400
Speaker 13: their place for sure. But the multi industry for me

951
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 13: is where I tend to learn more. And if you

952
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 13: look at the reports like Freeman, who's a global leading

953
00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:29,280
Speaker 13: events releases, still more than after people attend events actually

954
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:32,280
Speaker 13: to learn, not to buy, not to solve, but actually

955
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:35,880
Speaker 13: to learn. They want to come back enriched, knowing more,

956
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:39,279
Speaker 13: knowing more people, and increasing their knowledge base.

957
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 2: I mean, everyone talks about a digital first world, which

958
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:46,719
Speaker 2: I can't stand the thought of it. How do you

959
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:51,480
Speaker 2: manage your sort of online networking with actually in person connections,

960
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:54,760
Speaker 2: because you can't be everywhere at the same time, even

961
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:55,800
Speaker 2: in the digital world.

962
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 13: So I think there's a place for both. On the

963
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:04,200
Speaker 13: digital side, you have the opportunity to get reach, so

964
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:07,479
Speaker 13: you can have conversations with people on the other side

965
00:54:07,480 --> 00:54:10,480
Speaker 13: of the world, for example. I found that very useful.

966
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 13: Or the geographic location is quite fast, so you can't

967
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:18,279
Speaker 13: get there locally, but you can still dial in. But

968
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 13: like I said earlier, it has its limitations in terms

969
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 13: of access to the number of people and we can

970
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 13: speak at the time and so on, but they still

971
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:28,040
Speaker 13: a place for it. I must say, I prefer the

972
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 13: in person. I like to interact with people, human beings.

973
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:34,000
Speaker 13: It feels a little bit artificial for me through a screen,

974
00:54:34,560 --> 00:54:36,279
Speaker 13: but they still a place for it, and you can

975
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:39,640
Speaker 13: always follow up with an in person conversation, so that's

976
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:44,520
Speaker 13: always the opportunity. But I really enjoy the reach because

977
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:47,319
Speaker 13: I've reached people in different parts of the world where

978
00:54:47,360 --> 00:54:48,239
Speaker 13: otherwise would not have.

979
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 2: I mean, you also need to go into these things

980
00:54:51,080 --> 00:54:54,279
Speaker 2: with a kind of right attitude. Right whatever it is,

981
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:57,080
Speaker 2: I'm going to meet people today, you have to be

982
00:54:57,160 --> 00:55:01,040
Speaker 2: quite confident. People respond well to confidence. The way you

983
00:55:01,080 --> 00:55:04,600
Speaker 2: introduce yourself. I've always just find hi, my name is Stephen.

984
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:07,879
Speaker 2: What's your name? And going from there you're kind of okay.

985
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 13: Yes, I mean Stephen. Some some are better than others.

986
00:55:13,360 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 13: And it's just having the courage to step up to somebody.

987
00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 13: And the nice thing is that that person is also

988
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 13: there to want to meet somebody new, somebody that can

989
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:24,600
Speaker 13: add value in their life, in their network. Maybe it's

990
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:27,840
Speaker 13: not immediate, maybe it's in muture, but the contact is

991
00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:31,080
Speaker 13: really good to add to your to your networks. So

992
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:33,920
Speaker 13: and it's not off the cuff, Steven. You've got to

993
00:55:33,960 --> 00:55:36,479
Speaker 13: prepare well. You've got to know why am I going

994
00:55:36,480 --> 00:55:39,480
Speaker 13: there to one specific contacts or one specific contacts in

995
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:42,360
Speaker 13: this field? Who are the lead speakers, what is the

996
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:45,040
Speaker 13: profile audience that will be there. You've got to do

997
00:55:45,080 --> 00:55:47,400
Speaker 13: your homework and then I know we don't like it, Stephen,

998
00:55:47,440 --> 00:55:50,440
Speaker 13: but practice practice at home, practice and a family member

999
00:55:50,760 --> 00:55:54,239
Speaker 13: approaching somebody for the first time, introducing yourself and maybe

1000
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 13: you wanted to line about what you do, but more importantly,

1001
00:55:57,840 --> 00:56:01,239
Speaker 13: tend to try and listen more than you because that's

1002
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 13: what people value. They want to be able to tell

1003
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:07,160
Speaker 13: you about themselves and if you are genuinely interested, it built,

1004
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:10,920
Speaker 13: It enhances the experience and creates a platform for a

1005
00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 13: bit of relationships. So I would say sell more, but bold,

1006
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 13: sell less, but boldmore relationships.

1007
00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:20,680
Speaker 2: Jeremy Lang, thanks so much, Managing director at Business Partners Limited.

1008
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 2: The Money Show Investment School twenty three minutes now to

1009
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:27,839
Speaker 2: eighth the time. So the world suddenly looks like quite

1010
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 2: a dangerous place to invest in. Where are you going

1011
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:32,919
Speaker 2: to put your money? Oil prices are doing what they're doing.

1012
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:35,960
Speaker 2: You've got Trump, You've got Iran, You've got Israel, You've

1013
00:56:35,960 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 2: got the whole bit. A I wasn't that supposed to

1014
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:41,000
Speaker 2: be the fail safe? You put your money in there,

1015
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:46,080
Speaker 2: it'll be fine. So despite all of that, could actually

1016
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:49,239
Speaker 2: the best place to put your money be here at home?

1017
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:52,239
Speaker 2: Could home be where your money is? Well, we'll talk

1018
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:54,600
Speaker 2: about that in an investment school this evening, Gary Boys,

1019
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 2: and you know he's a portfolio manager director at ram Swiss,

1020
00:56:57,600 --> 00:56:59,759
Speaker 2: but a big welcome to investment school for the first

1021
00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:04,120
Speaker 2: time to Yucko. Chris Quits, a portfolio manager at Slum Investments.

1022
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:07,759
Speaker 2: As multi manager and Glacier invest gentlemen, good evening, A

1023
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:12,879
Speaker 2: yucko Chritsopher may start with you. I suppose we would

1024
00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:16,360
Speaker 2: start our investment case for South Africa with where our

1025
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:19,040
Speaker 2: politics is at the moment, and strangely, our politics isn't

1026
00:57:19,120 --> 00:57:19,800
Speaker 2: quite a good place.

1027
00:57:21,360 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 10: Yeah, good evening, Stephen, Thank you very much for having me.

1028
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 10: It's a great to be here. As you said, politics

1029
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:29,280
Speaker 10: isn't actually isn't a great place.

1030
00:57:29,280 --> 00:57:29,640
Speaker 11: Actually.

1031
00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:31,960
Speaker 10: So it all started with the with the g and

1032
00:57:32,080 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 10: U right, So the right people got on the bus proverbially,

1033
00:57:36,840 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 10: and the and the and the right people stayed off

1034
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:44,160
Speaker 10: the bus. That kind of led to a sequence of events,

1035
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:47,080
Speaker 10: a virtuous cycle kind of if you if you want

1036
00:57:47,120 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 10: to see it that way. That that started off with

1037
00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:55,080
Speaker 10: with us getting a bit more energy security with a

1038
00:57:55,080 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 10: few bumps along the road, but we seem to be

1039
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:03,960
Speaker 10: there now. That culminated in Operation willin Dlela, which kind

1040
00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:07,600
Speaker 10: of is being implemented in two phases. So Phase one

1041
00:58:08,360 --> 00:58:11,880
Speaker 10: was the clearing of the backlock, so to speak. So

1042
00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:21,880
Speaker 10: you can think about the longer waited, the longer waited

1043
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:25,160
Speaker 10: kind of clearing of all of the all of the.

1044
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:27,920
Speaker 2: All of the problems that we've had for such a

1045
00:58:27,920 --> 00:58:30,400
Speaker 2: long time, like load jading for example.

1046
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:34,400
Speaker 10: And and and and then we have government debt that

1047
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:37,880
Speaker 10: seems to be coming under control. We have inflation in

1048
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:41,520
Speaker 10: interest rates that's a little bit in the balance now.

1049
00:58:41,800 --> 00:58:43,920
Speaker 10: And then we obviously we got off the f A

1050
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 10: T f cray list, which was which was amazing. So

1051
00:58:48,200 --> 00:58:50,160
Speaker 10: so now we're looking towards the twenty twenty sixth Logal

1052
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:54,240
Speaker 10: government election to see whether whether the the virtual cycle

1053
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:54,960
Speaker 10: can continue.

1054
00:58:55,280 --> 00:58:58,280
Speaker 2: So Garry, I suppose in a way what happened, I

1055
00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:00,560
Speaker 2: mean in last year. I'm always reminded of by people

1056
00:59:00,600 --> 00:59:02,680
Speaker 2: we talked to that last year was a game of

1057
00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:04,480
Speaker 2: two halves, you know, in the second half of the

1058
00:59:04,680 --> 00:59:07,240
Speaker 2: things seemed to really accelerate. And is it just that

1059
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:13,240
Speaker 2: the formation of the National Coalition actually allowed reform to happen. Now,

1060
00:59:13,280 --> 00:59:15,560
Speaker 2: some of it had started before, but we started to

1061
00:59:15,640 --> 00:59:17,959
Speaker 2: really see the momentum of that, and then markets also

1062
00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:20,960
Speaker 2: partly because the DA is there, partly because the kind

1063
00:59:21,000 --> 00:59:23,440
Speaker 2: of let me call it, the reformist wing of the

1064
00:59:23,480 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 2: A and C is in charge, by which I mean

1065
00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:29,400
Speaker 2: the President. That that then gave people confidence that the

1066
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:31,240
Speaker 2: reforms will continue.

1067
00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:34,720
Speaker 16: I think certainly you know, the work that was done,

1068
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:38,200
Speaker 16: you know, by South African leadership, we can't really discount that.

1069
00:59:38,240 --> 00:59:40,680
Speaker 16: I think it's important to acknowledge that a lot of

1070
00:59:40,720 --> 00:59:43,920
Speaker 16: work was done. Having business friendly leaders in places is

1071
00:59:44,240 --> 00:59:48,520
Speaker 16: key for for investor confidence specifically internationally. But at the

1072
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:49,880
Speaker 16: same time, I think we need to look at the

1073
00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:52,439
Speaker 16: more macro picture as well and just how much heavy

1074
00:59:52,520 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 16: lifting something like a rocket and gold price that for

1075
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:57,320
Speaker 16: South African markets. So if you look at you know,

1076
00:59:57,400 --> 01:00:01,120
Speaker 16: the JS for example, the gold sector almost got I

1077
01:00:01,160 --> 01:00:03,840
Speaker 16: think it's almost maybe even more than a quarter of

1078
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:06,680
Speaker 16: the top forty is now accounted for by Harmony Goldfield's

1079
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:10,360
Speaker 16: Angler Gold. And obviously the super normal profits that these

1080
01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:13,680
Speaker 16: businesses were playing these businesses were making also fed into

1081
01:00:13,720 --> 01:00:17,080
Speaker 16: the fiscus as well, which which eased some of the constraints.

1082
01:00:17,160 --> 01:00:19,640
Speaker 16: So so from a market perspective, that certainly helped. It

1083
01:00:19,880 --> 01:00:23,680
Speaker 16: helped to accelerate our currency stronger. We often see it

1084
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:28,040
Speaker 16: as a commodity lad currency that that commodity prices and

1085
01:00:28,320 --> 01:00:30,640
Speaker 16: the South African rand, you know, moved very much in tandem.

1086
01:00:30,800 --> 01:00:33,960
Speaker 16: The correlation is very high and and with with kind

1087
01:00:33,960 --> 01:00:36,800
Speaker 16: of the rocketing precious metals price that that fed into

1088
01:00:37,160 --> 01:00:39,920
Speaker 16: the investment narrative around South Africa and certainly around our

1089
01:00:39,920 --> 01:00:42,480
Speaker 16: index as well. So I think we did also get

1090
01:00:42,480 --> 01:00:44,320
Speaker 16: a little bit lucky, but you know, kind of the

1091
01:00:44,840 --> 01:00:47,640
Speaker 16: points made earlier. I mean absolutely, I think we're now

1092
01:00:47,800 --> 01:00:50,560
Speaker 16: over three hundred days of no load shedding. Yeah, I

1093
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:51,960
Speaker 16: don't want to jink it. I think we should say

1094
01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:55,080
Speaker 16: very quietly just in case it's for that. Yeah, And

1095
01:00:55,200 --> 01:00:57,640
Speaker 16: I don't I don't know how secure this is because

1096
01:00:57,880 --> 01:01:00,120
Speaker 16: South Africa is obviously an oil importer as well, and

1097
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:04,080
Speaker 16: we obviously run big diesel generators, and you know, looking

1098
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:06,640
Speaker 16: at it, you know it's a very I suppose binary,

1099
01:01:06,800 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 16: very murky situation. And we're talking just just off air.

1100
01:01:10,560 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 16: I haven't seen volatility like this, and certainly not an

1101
01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:15,880
Speaker 16: interest rate expectations. I mean obviously have the SABA today

1102
01:01:15,880 --> 01:01:18,800
Speaker 16: as well, since probably two thousand and eight. I mean

1103
01:01:18,840 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 16: it's globally I'm talking. I'm talking about globally just just

1104
01:01:22,640 --> 01:01:25,560
Speaker 16: prices moving all over the place, and the idea that

1105
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:29,040
Speaker 16: if we don't see a quick resolution to the Iranian conflict,

1106
01:01:30,320 --> 01:01:32,920
Speaker 16: you know, remember with a strategic reserves released, you know,

1107
01:01:33,000 --> 01:01:35,280
Speaker 16: we see oil heading to one hundred and fifty dollars

1108
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:35,680
Speaker 16: a barrel.

1109
01:01:35,720 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 2: And if we if we.

1110
01:01:38,640 --> 01:01:40,760
Speaker 16: Just to you know, the highest oil price ever got

1111
01:01:40,760 --> 01:01:42,360
Speaker 16: on one hundred and forty four dollars a barrel for

1112
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 16: you know, the time value of money, and we adjust

1113
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:47,840
Speaker 16: that for inflation, that's north of two hundred dollars a barrel.

1114
01:01:47,880 --> 01:01:49,960
Speaker 16: That's very possible with the straits of all moves stay

1115
01:01:50,000 --> 01:01:53,280
Speaker 16: closed and we start seeing damage infrastructure. I don't know

1116
01:01:53,520 --> 01:01:56,600
Speaker 16: how our energy security looks like in that environment. And

1117
01:01:56,680 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 16: I think, yes, you know, the energy story is a

1118
01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:01,880
Speaker 16: lot better it was, but we are really we feel

1119
01:02:01,920 --> 01:02:04,080
Speaker 16: like we're on the precipice at the moment, and again

1120
01:02:04,160 --> 01:02:07,960
Speaker 16: not because of necessarily local events, but more the geopolitical

1121
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:09,320
Speaker 16: events feeding into the story.

1122
01:02:09,560 --> 01:02:12,360
Speaker 2: So yacho, Chris. I mean, the point about our goal, Chaz,

1123
01:02:12,480 --> 01:02:14,840
Speaker 2: is such an important one because that was not something

1124
01:02:14,880 --> 01:02:17,560
Speaker 2: in our control last year. At the very beginning of

1125
01:02:17,600 --> 01:02:21,440
Speaker 2: the year, everybody kept telling me, look, gold prices are

1126
01:02:21,480 --> 01:02:23,280
Speaker 2: going to stay high for at least as long as

1127
01:02:23,320 --> 01:02:26,640
Speaker 2: the Trump presidency, and I completely agree with that. Now

1128
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:29,800
Speaker 2: suddenly we have kind of the worst part of the

1129
01:02:29,880 --> 01:02:33,120
Speaker 2: Trump presidency and gold drops like a stone.

1130
01:02:34,880 --> 01:02:36,040
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's a very interesting one.

1131
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:36,640
Speaker 7: So just to.

1132
01:02:38,160 --> 01:02:41,640
Speaker 10: Color that in a little bit. So up until end

1133
01:02:41,720 --> 01:02:45,760
Speaker 10: feb the Aussie that fifty four point five on a

1134
01:02:45,800 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 10: one year basis, So everything looked amazing. As Gary said,

1135
01:02:51,160 --> 01:02:55,560
Speaker 10: there was the hopeful for lower interest rates, and that's

1136
01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 10: all been written back. In fact, our futures are now

1137
01:02:59,080 --> 01:03:02,480
Speaker 10: pricing and something like ninety basis points of interestrate hikes.

1138
01:03:02,520 --> 01:03:05,000
Speaker 10: We don't think that's going to happen, but it just shows,

1139
01:03:05,800 --> 01:03:12,280
Speaker 10: just goes to show how things have changed. The gold

1140
01:03:14,040 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 10: coming down, the gold price coming down is a very

1141
01:03:16,080 --> 01:03:18,920
Speaker 10: interesting one. So you would think that in an environment

1142
01:03:19,080 --> 01:03:21,520
Speaker 10: like we are currently that there would be a flight

1143
01:03:21,600 --> 01:03:24,520
Speaker 10: to safety and that gold would actually rally. But what

1144
01:03:24,680 --> 01:03:30,000
Speaker 10: we've seen is that the hike in the oil price

1145
01:03:30,120 --> 01:03:33,480
Speaker 10: has led to inflation expectations going through the roof, and

1146
01:03:33,800 --> 01:03:37,640
Speaker 10: that has actually led to interest rate hikes being priced in,

1147
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:40,520
Speaker 10: or at least in the case of the FED, all

1148
01:03:40,560 --> 01:03:43,680
Speaker 10: the interestrate cuts being priced out. Now gold being a

1149
01:03:43,760 --> 01:03:46,120
Speaker 10: non yielding assets, in other words, if you keep gold,

1150
01:03:46,480 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 10: it doesn't give you any interest in the bank. In

1151
01:03:49,840 --> 01:03:53,760
Speaker 10: that sense, gold looks a little bit less enticing. And

1152
01:03:53,840 --> 01:03:59,640
Speaker 10: then the other thing is if the market doesn't think

1153
01:03:59,760 --> 01:04:03,120
Speaker 10: this is an all fall down scenario yet I think

1154
01:04:03,200 --> 01:04:05,880
Speaker 10: we don't see that flight to safety. So in other words,

1155
01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:08,920
Speaker 10: the fact that the goal price hasn't continued to rain

1156
01:04:09,640 --> 01:04:15,120
Speaker 10: actually is, in a weird way, slightly a good sign

1157
01:04:15,720 --> 01:04:18,280
Speaker 10: because it tells us that the market is not yet

1158
01:04:18,400 --> 01:04:23,320
Speaker 10: pricing in a doomsday scenario. But perhaps we want to

1159
01:04:23,400 --> 01:04:24,480
Speaker 10: unpack that a little bit more.

1160
01:04:24,680 --> 01:04:29,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, they certainly should be according to Garry at

1161
01:04:29,440 --> 01:04:34,280
Speaker 2: least I suppose. The other question, if you want to

1162
01:04:34,320 --> 01:04:37,960
Speaker 2: put money into the South African South African shares, you

1163
01:04:38,080 --> 01:04:40,120
Speaker 2: want to look at how cheap we are compared to

1164
01:04:40,240 --> 01:04:43,360
Speaker 2: other assets. So you know you're looking for evaluation gap.

1165
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:44,960
Speaker 2: What do you think the value should be in what

1166
01:04:45,080 --> 01:04:47,680
Speaker 2: the market thinks it is. I'm probably not using quite

1167
01:04:47,720 --> 01:04:49,760
Speaker 2: the right language, but this is investment school, you know

1168
01:04:49,800 --> 01:04:52,920
Speaker 2: what I mean? So is our market still cheap? Is

1169
01:04:52,920 --> 01:04:55,480
Speaker 2: there still a gap between what the value should really

1170
01:04:55,640 --> 01:04:59,440
Speaker 2: be and what it currently is? Well, I think working

1171
01:04:59,480 --> 01:05:01,200
Speaker 2: out what then value on shares?

1172
01:05:01,560 --> 01:05:04,760
Speaker 16: Ye, that's I mean, there's so many different ways of

1173
01:05:04,840 --> 01:05:07,200
Speaker 16: doing it, and there's there's so much that goes into it,

1174
01:05:07,360 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 16: and you know, there's so much you can argue because

1175
01:05:09,840 --> 01:05:12,720
Speaker 16: so much of it does actually ultimately become subjective, you know,

1176
01:05:12,760 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 16: and that's finding where your intrinsic value is. That's I

1177
01:05:15,120 --> 01:05:18,360
Speaker 16: suppose the whole game of investing. Looking at the South

1178
01:05:18,360 --> 01:05:22,600
Speaker 16: African market, you know, it's such a South African market

1179
01:05:22,760 --> 01:05:25,000
Speaker 16: is such a disparate place. You've got you know, the

1180
01:05:25,440 --> 01:05:27,960
Speaker 16: gold mining shares which have taken over the top forty

1181
01:05:28,040 --> 01:05:30,720
Speaker 16: at the moment and now incredibly volatile, you know, bringing

1182
01:05:30,720 --> 01:05:32,800
Speaker 16: a lot of volatility into our market. And you know

1183
01:05:32,880 --> 01:05:35,560
Speaker 16: that kind of north of fifty percent run that we're

1184
01:05:35,600 --> 01:05:38,240
Speaker 16: talking about in dollar terms, you know, quickly unwinding. I mean,

1185
01:05:38,280 --> 01:05:40,600
Speaker 16: we're in a correction territory. We're falling a lot faster.

1186
01:05:41,240 --> 01:05:44,800
Speaker 16: But it's because of that link. That segment of the

1187
01:05:44,880 --> 01:05:47,440
Speaker 16: market I think maybe a little bit hot, but you know,

1188
01:05:47,480 --> 01:05:49,720
Speaker 16: it's commodities. It's going to be volatile. We've seen the

1189
01:05:49,800 --> 01:05:52,919
Speaker 16: resource index up and down massively in the last couple

1190
01:05:52,960 --> 01:05:54,920
Speaker 16: of weeks and that's to be expected as a very

1191
01:05:54,920 --> 01:05:57,800
Speaker 16: cyclical industry. And you know, you price off the commodities,

1192
01:05:58,040 --> 01:06:00,360
Speaker 16: Your prices stocks off the commodities, So it's going to happen.

1193
01:06:00,760 --> 01:06:02,560
Speaker 16: But if you look at the maybe the South African

1194
01:06:02,640 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 16: ink segment of the market, so you look at the

1195
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:06,600
Speaker 16: South African banks, for example, and you compare that to

1196
01:06:06,640 --> 01:06:10,280
Speaker 16: global counterparts, it's still very very cheap. You're training mostly

1197
01:06:10,360 --> 01:06:14,959
Speaker 16: on your single digit upper single digit multiples. They don't

1198
01:06:15,000 --> 01:06:18,160
Speaker 16: look particularly extended. And I think there's there's quite a

1199
01:06:18,320 --> 01:06:22,080
Speaker 16: large risk premium that the market and specifically international investors

1200
01:06:22,120 --> 01:06:25,160
Speaker 16: bake into our local financial institutions because they look at

1201
01:06:25,200 --> 01:06:28,040
Speaker 16: the sovereign risk and they price that off the credit

1202
01:06:28,160 --> 01:06:30,439
Speaker 16: ratings agencies and say, well, this is what the banks

1203
01:06:30,520 --> 01:06:33,040
Speaker 16: must be in South Africa. And I think as South Africans,

1204
01:06:33,080 --> 01:06:36,440
Speaker 16: I mean maybe maybe as my perspective as well, because

1205
01:06:36,440 --> 01:06:38,080
Speaker 16: I sit here and we deal with the banks, and

1206
01:06:38,680 --> 01:06:41,600
Speaker 16: you kind of have a feeling of safety around our

1207
01:06:41,640 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 16: big four, Big five banks. But at the same time,

1208
01:06:45,320 --> 01:06:47,480
Speaker 16: you know, our banks are well capitalized. You know, you

1209
01:06:47,560 --> 01:06:49,760
Speaker 16: look at our banks going through the two thousand and

1210
01:06:49,800 --> 01:06:53,080
Speaker 16: eight global financial crisis for example, I mean, they performed

1211
01:06:53,160 --> 01:06:56,120
Speaker 16: exceptionally well compared to overseas counterparts, yet they traded as

1212
01:06:56,120 --> 01:06:59,000
Speaker 16: a significant discounts. So I think that is potentially a

1213
01:06:59,080 --> 01:07:02,560
Speaker 16: very interesting setment of the market. You look at our retails.

1214
01:07:02,600 --> 01:07:04,919
Speaker 16: I think our retailers have been undervalued for a while.

1215
01:07:05,040 --> 01:07:07,720
Speaker 16: The problem is now as as we were discussing interest

1216
01:07:07,800 --> 01:07:10,640
Speaker 16: rate expectations moving all over the place. These are typically

1217
01:07:10,720 --> 01:07:13,919
Speaker 16: quite interestright senseitive stocks, and I mean we're talking about

1218
01:07:13,960 --> 01:07:16,080
Speaker 16: what's happening with the Fed. I mean on Monday, we

1219
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:19,080
Speaker 16: literally went from pricing in a cut to pricing into

1220
01:07:19,200 --> 01:07:22,000
Speaker 16: a hike to kind of settling the day at We

1221
01:07:22,080 --> 01:07:23,600
Speaker 16: don't think there's going to be a high or a cut,

1222
01:07:23,840 --> 01:07:26,600
Speaker 16: and that's a weird situation. But let's say things do

1223
01:07:26,680 --> 01:07:29,720
Speaker 16: get a little bit worse. Preserve thank speaking today saying

1224
01:07:29,760 --> 01:07:32,680
Speaker 16: that you know, potentially, you know, this is going to

1225
01:07:32,720 --> 01:07:35,280
Speaker 16: be quite a you know, maybe twenty and twenty seven,

1226
01:07:35,480 --> 01:07:38,400
Speaker 16: twenty eight, maybe we're going to see inflation returning, if

1227
01:07:38,440 --> 01:07:40,880
Speaker 16: the oil supply shop goes on for another month or two.

1228
01:07:42,240 --> 01:07:44,640
Speaker 16: You know, there's different scenarios, but that that typically is

1229
01:07:44,800 --> 01:07:47,400
Speaker 16: bad for our retail sector. And while our restale sector

1230
01:07:47,440 --> 01:07:50,360
Speaker 16: I think a month ago was looking very very attractive,

1231
01:07:51,080 --> 01:07:54,480
Speaker 16: suddenly maybe not so much specifically in the credit retailers.

1232
01:07:54,560 --> 01:07:56,880
Speaker 16: But again, you look at a day like today and

1233
01:07:56,880 --> 01:07:58,640
Speaker 16: you've got shop right up three and a half percent,

1234
01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:02,320
Speaker 16: and shop right that a nineteenpe still looks cheap to me,

1235
01:08:02,400 --> 01:08:04,520
Speaker 16: because in my valuation terms, I look at this and

1236
01:08:04,560 --> 01:08:06,760
Speaker 16: I say this is becoming more and more like Amazon.

1237
01:08:06,840 --> 01:08:09,919
Speaker 16: Amazon delivers in one day, Shopbright delivers in sixty minutes. Yeah,

1238
01:08:10,160 --> 01:08:13,080
Speaker 16: this is a tech company, a tech an logistics company

1239
01:08:13,160 --> 01:08:16,320
Speaker 16: that's being priced as a grosser. So I think, you know,

1240
01:08:16,360 --> 01:08:18,519
Speaker 16: there's lots of individual cases, and then you look across

1241
01:08:18,560 --> 01:08:21,040
Speaker 16: our small and MidCap sector. I mean, these just don't

1242
01:08:21,080 --> 01:08:23,840
Speaker 16: have proper price discovery. There are some fantastic gems in

1243
01:08:23,920 --> 01:08:28,120
Speaker 16: there that because large institutions just can't access them, you,

1244
01:08:28,760 --> 01:08:31,000
Speaker 16: they tend to get kind of chucked out. You know,

1245
01:08:31,040 --> 01:08:32,840
Speaker 16: the baby gets chucked out of the bath water. And

1246
01:08:33,640 --> 01:08:36,240
Speaker 16: I think there are opportunities for for individual investors to

1247
01:08:36,520 --> 01:08:38,400
Speaker 16: really make some interesting calls.

1248
01:08:38,880 --> 01:08:41,400
Speaker 2: Investment School tonight is sound that to get a place

1249
01:08:41,479 --> 01:08:44,839
Speaker 2: to invest right now. Gary Boyson's portfolio manager director adrants

1250
01:08:44,960 --> 01:08:48,439
Speaker 2: with Yacho Chris Qwitz is a portfolio manager Some Investments

1251
01:08:48,560 --> 01:08:51,840
Speaker 2: Multi Manager and Glacier invest Another few minutes to go.

1252
01:08:51,920 --> 01:08:53,720
Speaker 2: It's just gone eleven minutes NOWAD eight.

1253
01:08:55,520 --> 01:08:58,200
Speaker 17: The Money Show Stephen Fluette is brought to you by

1254
01:08:58,280 --> 01:09:03,040
Speaker 17: absa Islamic business bank celebrating twenty years of banking rooted in.

1255
01:09:03,160 --> 01:09:05,439
Speaker 11: Values as as a register FP.

1256
01:09:08,000 --> 01:09:10,320
Speaker 10: No Money Show Investment school.

1257
01:09:10,880 --> 01:09:13,599
Speaker 2: Well we're speaking to are we speaking about South Africa?

1258
01:09:13,640 --> 01:09:17,639
Speaker 2: The investment case for South Africa right now? Gary Boyson's

1259
01:09:17,640 --> 01:09:21,439
Speaker 2: portfolio manager directed around Swiss Yaco, Chris Kurtz's portfolio manager

1260
01:09:21,560 --> 01:09:25,599
Speaker 2: Sunham Investments, muorting manager and Glacier invest Jacko Chris. I mean,

1261
01:09:25,680 --> 01:09:28,400
Speaker 2: one of the other things that's really changed and has

1262
01:09:28,479 --> 01:09:31,960
Speaker 2: suddenly become so important again, thank you, Donald Trump, is

1263
01:09:32,280 --> 01:09:35,920
Speaker 2: the credibility of your central bank. We have a governor

1264
01:09:36,120 --> 01:09:39,400
Speaker 2: halfway through is the term he I think I can

1265
01:09:39,479 --> 01:09:43,360
Speaker 2: say he successfully lowered our inflation target team. Yeah, I'm

1266
01:09:43,360 --> 01:09:45,400
Speaker 2: sure we'd disagree, but I could probably put it like that.

1267
01:09:46,439 --> 01:09:49,080
Speaker 2: How important is that right now in terms of strengthening

1268
01:09:49,120 --> 01:09:50,639
Speaker 2: the investment case for South Africa?

1269
01:09:51,920 --> 01:09:53,760
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think it's very important. I think having a

1270
01:09:54,400 --> 01:09:58,320
Speaker 10: credible central bank is extremely important. And I think it's

1271
01:09:58,360 --> 01:10:02,040
Speaker 10: all about inflation expect and whether the central bank is

1272
01:10:02,080 --> 01:10:08,360
Speaker 10: able to anchor them. So you can see inflation expectations

1273
01:10:08,600 --> 01:10:11,679
Speaker 10: almost like if you look at it from the top,

1274
01:10:11,840 --> 01:10:14,080
Speaker 10: it's going to look like concentric circles, but if you

1275
01:10:14,160 --> 01:10:16,680
Speaker 10: look at it from the side, it looks almost like

1276
01:10:16,760 --> 01:10:23,400
Speaker 10: a spiral. And how inflation expectations work is if the

1277
01:10:23,479 --> 01:10:26,719
Speaker 10: central bank is able to anchor those at a point

1278
01:10:26,840 --> 01:10:30,200
Speaker 10: and in this case it's it's the much hallowed three

1279
01:10:30,280 --> 01:10:34,720
Speaker 10: percent with a target bank plus one minus one. But

1280
01:10:34,840 --> 01:10:36,840
Speaker 10: actually we are now at a point target, which is

1281
01:10:36,920 --> 01:10:41,440
Speaker 10: good because it puts us in in the same ballpark

1282
01:10:41,680 --> 01:10:45,560
Speaker 10: as say, there's the central banks of the US and

1283
01:10:45,880 --> 01:10:49,760
Speaker 10: and and England and and and the European Union. But

1284
01:10:49,880 --> 01:10:51,800
Speaker 10: it also puts us on the same footing as most

1285
01:10:51,840 --> 01:10:54,800
Speaker 10: of our emerging market peers. So it really was time

1286
01:10:54,880 --> 01:10:57,240
Speaker 10: for us to become a grown up emerging market, so

1287
01:10:57,360 --> 01:10:59,360
Speaker 10: to say, so to speak, and and and to to

1288
01:10:59,760 --> 01:11:03,400
Speaker 10: get this lower inflation target in place. But to come

1289
01:11:03,479 --> 01:11:07,760
Speaker 10: back to my point around the spiral, if you put

1290
01:11:07,840 --> 01:11:12,240
Speaker 10: yourself in the shoes of, say the main wage negotiator

1291
01:11:12,600 --> 01:11:18,280
Speaker 10: of a large labor union, and you expect three percent

1292
01:11:18,400 --> 01:11:21,760
Speaker 10: inflation to be the reality, so in other words, your

1293
01:11:21,880 --> 01:11:25,120
Speaker 10: central bank governor and your central bank is credible enough

1294
01:11:25,760 --> 01:11:31,759
Speaker 10: to really anchor that expectation, then you will definitely start

1295
01:11:31,880 --> 01:11:35,000
Speaker 10: at that three percent, and you might adjust upwards, say

1296
01:11:35,120 --> 01:11:38,560
Speaker 10: two or three percent. But if you don't believe it,

1297
01:11:39,040 --> 01:11:41,160
Speaker 10: and you actually think that it's going to be say

1298
01:11:41,640 --> 01:11:44,439
Speaker 10: nine percent in reality, then you might start with a

1299
01:11:44,479 --> 01:11:48,920
Speaker 10: twelve fifteen percent claim or a twelve fifteen percent requirement.

1300
01:11:49,840 --> 01:11:54,400
Speaker 10: So in that sense, it all revolves towards this point

1301
01:11:55,560 --> 01:11:59,720
Speaker 10: and it becomes this virtual cycle. To use that term

1302
01:11:59,760 --> 01:12:02,200
Speaker 10: for the second time in this in this investment.

1303
01:12:01,840 --> 01:12:05,960
Speaker 2: School, Gary, I mean, right now, at a time when

1304
01:12:06,720 --> 01:12:09,960
Speaker 2: central bank independence is not being taken for granted in

1305
01:12:10,040 --> 01:12:12,720
Speaker 2: some of the places that invented it, by which I

1306
01:12:12,760 --> 01:12:14,840
Speaker 2: mean the US, suddenly it would seem to me to

1307
01:12:14,920 --> 01:12:18,560
Speaker 2: become more important that our central bank is so independent

1308
01:12:18,640 --> 01:12:21,880
Speaker 2: and and I must just stress robust in its independence,

1309
01:12:22,560 --> 01:12:23,240
Speaker 2: of course.

1310
01:12:23,240 --> 01:12:25,920
Speaker 16: I mean, and there's you know, the history is littered

1311
01:12:26,000 --> 01:12:29,120
Speaker 16: with countries that remove the independence of the central bank

1312
01:12:29,200 --> 01:12:31,960
Speaker 16: and and economies that have been destroyed. And as much

1313
01:12:32,000 --> 01:12:33,600
Speaker 16: as you know, I think we we are going to

1314
01:12:33,640 --> 01:12:36,200
Speaker 16: go into a very difficult time now, you know, with

1315
01:12:36,320 --> 01:12:39,679
Speaker 16: a with a supply shock, as we are potentially seeing higher,

1316
01:12:39,960 --> 01:12:44,439
Speaker 16: higher inflation. The temptation is always to to let interest

1317
01:12:44,520 --> 01:12:48,040
Speaker 16: rates drag and and that's it's it's an incorrect move.

1318
01:12:48,080 --> 01:12:48,280
Speaker 7: I mean.

1319
01:12:48,400 --> 01:12:50,479
Speaker 16: The reason the central bank tightens the post, the reason

1320
01:12:50,560 --> 01:12:52,320
Speaker 16: that we have a hawkish central central bank in this

1321
01:12:52,439 --> 01:12:55,720
Speaker 16: environment is to create price stability, which you know that

1322
01:12:56,200 --> 01:12:59,800
Speaker 16: in itself, you know, is absolutely critical for long term growth.

1323
01:13:00,360 --> 01:13:03,320
Speaker 16: And you know you don't do that, you have hyper inflection,

1324
01:13:03,439 --> 01:13:07,679
Speaker 16: you have all sorts of terrible, terrible outcomes. So yeah,

1325
01:13:07,680 --> 01:13:10,639
Speaker 16: I think, you know, I agree, it is absolutely critical,

1326
01:13:12,560 --> 01:13:15,000
Speaker 16: and I think we are very fortunate in the strength

1327
01:13:15,080 --> 01:13:17,640
Speaker 16: of the South African Reserve Bank as an institution. It

1328
01:13:17,720 --> 01:13:19,920
Speaker 16: has done exceptional things and I think it's one of

1329
01:13:19,960 --> 01:13:22,679
Speaker 16: the reasons that that South Africa to a large extent

1330
01:13:22,760 --> 01:13:26,559
Speaker 16: has avoided the worst case scenario in the last say

1331
01:13:26,600 --> 01:13:27,320
Speaker 16: twenty five years.

1332
01:13:29,320 --> 01:13:31,880
Speaker 2: Ego, okay, we're going to invest in South Africa. There

1333
01:13:31,880 --> 01:13:34,719
Speaker 2: are some obvious ones. I mean, shop rights already been mentioned,

1334
01:13:34,800 --> 01:13:37,760
Speaker 2: is always mentioned in investment school for some reason. I mean,

1335
01:13:37,840 --> 01:13:40,559
Speaker 2: you would think that with oil prices where they are,

1336
01:13:40,720 --> 01:13:42,800
Speaker 2: Cecil would be the obvious one, and in fact there

1337
01:13:42,920 --> 01:13:45,200
Speaker 2: is the shape performance over the last two weeks has

1338
01:13:45,240 --> 01:13:46,200
Speaker 2: been highly variable.

1339
01:13:48,280 --> 01:13:52,280
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's it's a good point. So Cecil has never been,

1340
01:13:53,320 --> 01:13:55,840
Speaker 10: at least in my mind, a very high quality name.

1341
01:13:56,200 --> 01:14:01,559
Speaker 10: So you would invest in Cecil almost on a punt,

1342
01:14:01,880 --> 01:14:05,719
Speaker 10: rather than with an expectation that it's going to produce

1343
01:14:07,120 --> 01:14:10,640
Speaker 10: you know, very good free cash flows and all of

1344
01:14:10,720 --> 01:14:14,320
Speaker 10: those things that we associate with high quality name. As

1345
01:14:14,400 --> 01:14:16,479
Speaker 10: you say, it has been a beneficiary of the higher

1346
01:14:16,520 --> 01:14:21,880
Speaker 10: oil price, but previously it was hamstrung by some of

1347
01:14:22,000 --> 01:14:27,839
Speaker 10: its projects in the US that there have been money killers.

1348
01:14:28,200 --> 01:14:30,760
Speaker 10: So it's been eating all of this free cash flow

1349
01:14:30,760 --> 01:14:33,559
Speaker 10: almost very similar to some of the you mentioned AI

1350
01:14:33,680 --> 01:14:36,240
Speaker 10: in your introduction. So some of these AI names have

1351
01:14:36,880 --> 01:14:39,200
Speaker 10: high capex at the moment and and there's a few

1352
01:14:39,280 --> 01:14:43,720
Speaker 10: worries around their ability to generate free cash flow. So

1353
01:14:43,800 --> 01:14:46,720
Speaker 10: in a very similar way, CECIL was was kind of

1354
01:14:48,760 --> 01:14:57,599
Speaker 10: on this this escapade to create new projects, and we've

1355
01:14:57,680 --> 01:15:01,040
Speaker 10: seen in the past that can be a big hit

1356
01:15:01,160 --> 01:15:01,400
Speaker 10: and miss.

1357
01:15:03,040 --> 01:15:06,160
Speaker 2: And so clearly, even though we as South Africa might

1358
01:15:06,240 --> 01:15:10,200
Speaker 2: be about to enter some kind of oil difficulty, you

1359
01:15:10,320 --> 01:15:12,840
Speaker 2: don't see that where where in South Africa would you

1360
01:15:12,840 --> 01:15:15,720
Speaker 2: be putting your money in? And you have to as

1361
01:15:15,720 --> 01:15:17,840
Speaker 2: a condition of being on the program disagree with Gary.

1362
01:15:19,240 --> 01:15:22,720
Speaker 10: Okay, I I love to disagree. So thank you for

1363
01:15:22,920 --> 01:15:27,639
Speaker 10: the for the opportunity. Now I I would look towards

1364
01:15:27,800 --> 01:15:33,800
Speaker 10: the financials. Actually I think the financials. So Gary did

1365
01:15:33,920 --> 01:15:36,880
Speaker 10: mention the banks, but also our insurance insurance. And I'm

1366
01:15:36,880 --> 01:15:38,840
Speaker 10: not saying that just because I work for one this

1367
01:15:39,040 --> 01:15:41,320
Speaker 10: is not a this is not a paid a paid

1368
01:15:41,400 --> 01:15:45,599
Speaker 10: advert but but really there's there's some very high quality

1369
01:15:45,880 --> 01:15:49,280
Speaker 10: insurance names in the in the essay context. Just to

1370
01:15:49,520 --> 01:15:52,120
Speaker 10: put a bit more meat around the bone of some

1371
01:15:52,200 --> 01:15:53,880
Speaker 10: of the points that Gary made, which I actually thought

1372
01:15:53,920 --> 01:15:55,880
Speaker 10: were very good ones. So I'm gonna I'm gonna agree

1373
01:15:55,920 --> 01:15:58,160
Speaker 10: with them and then and then move away to disagree,

1374
01:15:58,200 --> 01:16:02,000
Speaker 10: but some but just to reiterate that point, just abun yea,

1375
01:16:02,040 --> 01:16:04,160
Speaker 10: I just quickly looked it up. That's three hundred and

1376
01:16:04,320 --> 01:16:08,680
Speaker 10: four percent last year in that same year shop right,

1377
01:16:08,720 --> 01:16:12,040
Speaker 10: that minus six in a year where the market did

1378
01:16:12,160 --> 01:16:17,280
Speaker 10: forty one or forty two. So in other words, the

1379
01:16:17,840 --> 01:16:20,840
Speaker 10: market does look cheap in pockets. And if you're looking

1380
01:16:20,920 --> 01:16:25,880
Speaker 10: for cheap, high quality companies, then I'd say Bitcorp, Shop Right,

1381
01:16:26,960 --> 01:16:30,120
Speaker 10: Woolies and pepcoor and you can throw and clicks there

1382
01:16:30,120 --> 01:16:33,920
Speaker 10: as well, would be some of those very high quality

1383
01:16:34,160 --> 01:16:36,559
Speaker 10: essay inc names. And at the start of the year,

1384
01:16:36,600 --> 01:16:38,920
Speaker 10: I say to my clients, this is going to be

1385
01:16:38,960 --> 01:16:44,880
Speaker 10: an essay in gyar, so I'd say financials. You can

1386
01:16:44,880 --> 01:16:49,519
Speaker 10: almost throw a dart there. Then those those five.

1387
01:16:49,439 --> 01:16:52,400
Speaker 2: Names, thank you very much, indeed, Jacko Chris Kurtz really

1388
01:16:52,439 --> 01:16:55,560
Speaker 2: appreciated portfolio manager at sun Lam Investments Multi Manager and

1389
01:16:55,640 --> 01:16:59,479
Speaker 2: Glacier invest I'd give Gary Boyson the chance to respond

1390
01:16:59,520 --> 01:17:02,320
Speaker 2: to that, then he wouldn't leave here frustrated. He of

1391
01:17:02,439 --> 01:17:06,920
Speaker 2: course his portfolio manager director at RANDSWIZKOI thanks for coming in.

1392
01:17:09,080 --> 01:17:11,760
Speaker 17: The money show, Stephen KREUETTEZ is brought to you by

1393
01:17:11,880 --> 01:17:16,400
Speaker 17: apsa Islamic business bank celebrating twenty years of banking rooted

1394
01:17:16,520 --> 01:17:18,799
Speaker 17: in values as a registered FSP.

1395
01:17:21,320 --> 01:17:26,280
Speaker 2: Well, US market's still very concerned about what's happening regarding Iran.

1396
01:17:26,400 --> 01:17:28,639
Speaker 2: Has been a cabinet meeting in the US. Donald Trump

1397
01:17:28,680 --> 01:17:31,960
Speaker 2: says Iran let tenships through the Strait of almost as

1398
01:17:32,000 --> 01:17:35,000
Speaker 2: a gift to the US. Okay, but our Jones is

1399
01:17:35,000 --> 01:17:36,920
Speaker 2: down for at eight six percent, The Nastik is down

1400
01:17:36,960 --> 01:17:39,040
Speaker 2: point one seven. The S and P five hundred is

1401
01:17:39,120 --> 01:17:42,439
Speaker 2: down one and a quarter percent back tomorrow, good evening.

1402
01:17:42,479 --> 01:17:43,000
Speaker 2: It's eight clock