1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,920 Speaker 1: You're with Clement Manateela seven o two. 2 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:09,320 Speaker 2: But right now we start our conversation with the Department 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:11,600 Speaker 2: of Energy. So the one in the Middle East, as 4 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,960 Speaker 2: you've seen, has entered what it's fourth week now, the 5 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 2: conflict that has disrupted key energy routes, particularly the Strait 6 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:23,439 Speaker 2: of Homuz, through which about twenty percent of the world's 7 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 2: oil supply passes, and it continues. This conflict continues to 8 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 2: trigger the largest supply disruption in the history of the 9 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 2: global oil market. So how are we being affected as 10 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 2: South Africans and do we have a plan should the 11 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 2: war prolong much longer. Remember, this conflict has already pushed 12 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 2: international crude oil prices above the one hundred billion dollar 13 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:50,840 Speaker 2: per barrel, creating uncertainty in global energy markets, and now 14 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 2: we know this will have a significant knock on effect 15 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 2: on fuel prices in April. So let's get a sense 16 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 2: of where this situation is now with the Energy Department, 17 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 2: and we'll get to that in fact in a moment. 18 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 2: But I want to have a chat with them. I 19 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 2: want to also bring in the chief executive at the 20 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:15,959 Speaker 2: Full Industry Association of South Africa because they've done their 21 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 2: own analysis looking at what the situation is likely to 22 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:23,400 Speaker 2: look like, so let me start with them and then 23 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 2: I'll bring in the d G at the Energy Department 24 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 2: to do so. Micubela, let's start here. Effect Aba Fani 25 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 2: Chifularo is the Chief executive at the Full Industry Association 26 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 2: of South Africa, and then afterwards we'll bring in the 27 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 2: d G at the Department of Energy. Ava Pani, thank 28 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:41,039 Speaker 2: you so much for making time for us. 29 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 3: Good morning, good morning, good money to you and listeners. 30 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: Yeah. 31 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 2: So from an industry standpoint, how exposed do you think 32 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 2: South Africa's full supply chain to these disruptions in the 33 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 2: Middle East is particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. 34 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 3: Sir Clement, It's very important just to indicate that South Africa, 35 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 3: unfortunately it is not like blessed with oil or big 36 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:18,239 Speaker 3: plants where we can manfect our own petlan products, so 37 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 3: we import them in both crude oil and finished products. 38 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 3: So the refining capacity that we have in the country, 39 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 3: it needs roughly thirty percent of our own requirements. But 40 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 3: our crude refiner is obviously they're heavily reliant on the 41 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 3: important crude oil because we don't have our own crude oil. 42 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 3: So roughly seventy percent of our demand is made by imports, 43 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:54,079 Speaker 3: so that on its own, it exposed the country and 44 00:02:54,160 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 3: the sector to any political dynamics in the international Like 45 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 3: I'm in front, and because I'm in the oil and 46 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 3: the oil products are pricing the dollar, it means we'll 47 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 3: also be exposed to exchange rate fluctuations. Right now, under 48 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:17,640 Speaker 3: this current environment, you will see that the rent will 49 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 3: also weekend, so that does not really help us as 50 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 3: the country. And because also imports, I mean you rely 51 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,360 Speaker 3: heavily on vessels that are bringing product, I mean, the 52 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 3: freight costs will also increase. So there are just so 53 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 3: many effectors that are outside the country that affect us, 54 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 3: like not by choice, because it's something that's there. 55 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 2: Okay, I'll come back to you in a moment. Other 56 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 2: part funny, let's bring in Jacob and Bell and now 57 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 2: is the director general. I'm at the Department of Mineral 58 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 2: and Petorium Resources. Mister Bell, thank you for also joining 59 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 2: this conversation. 60 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 1: Good morning, money implement and good money to them is not? 61 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, Kit, can we start by confirming whether or not 62 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 2: we are experiencing a full shortage yet or nearing that 63 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 2: position as this war continues. 64 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 4: Clement, I can confirm from the government site and even 65 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 4: from the supplier site, and if you can confirm that 66 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 4: as well, that in the near term we do not 67 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 4: anticipate shortage of product. We believe that in the country 68 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 4: is covered to the second half of paper. I think 69 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:39,599 Speaker 4: it's important to indicate that there's funny. Indicate that we 70 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 4: get most, if not all, of our supplies. Most of 71 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 4: our supplies obviously as imports, and there is a replenishment 72 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 4: cycle of blood is in place. Every six weeks we 73 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,279 Speaker 4: expect the finished products to come through and every three 74 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 4: months so so we expect the food to come through. 75 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 4: And the others that have been confirmed confirmed that we 76 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 4: have sufficient supplied a detail towards the end of April, 77 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:13,160 Speaker 4: and we expect that in consultation with industry. 78 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: More others have been placed. 79 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:20,039 Speaker 4: We are not the this point anticipating any problems, but 80 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 4: we do recognize that the situation is fluid. 81 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:28,839 Speaker 1: Things can change overnight. That's the message year. 82 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 2: Okay, but are we not having problems with the shipment 83 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 2: of the world. 84 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 1: At this point in time. 85 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 4: All the majors that we spoke to since last week 86 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 4: have indicated that everything is going according to how they 87 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 4: placed the others. I think the issue that is there 88 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 4: that seems to be confused is local life shortages. It's 89 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:59,480 Speaker 4: distribution within the country. I spoke to and supplied this mone. 90 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 4: We indicate to ask that on their side they've seen 91 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 4: on the diesel side, they've seen a sage of cloths 92 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 4: about thirty percent in terms of demand just in the 93 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 4: last week. 94 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: And we know what they will do. 95 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 4: Obviously, it will run because they are logistical processes behind 96 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:22,599 Speaker 4: every supply point. And if and those are planned on 97 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:25,359 Speaker 4: the basis of non demand, If certainly there's a sarge, 98 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 4: that may lead to that particular facility running down, and 99 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 4: then it may help them to wait for to be replenished. 100 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:36,600 Speaker 4: But it's that that is not a signal shortage of 101 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 4: product in the country. 102 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:40,720 Speaker 1: There is sufficient product in the country, okay. 103 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 2: And what happens if beyond April this war continues, What 104 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 2: what options are we looking at? And is there a 105 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:51,239 Speaker 2: way you can then interveneous government to cushion the blow. 106 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 4: If you look at what the major set grant, they've 107 00:06:56,160 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 4: obviously started supplying us from their other abs because all 108 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 4: these well majures they operate across across the world, so 109 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 4: they've got other aps where they can source supply, but 110 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 4: we know that supply is constained in a sense that 111 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 4: everyone is now going for the same supply, so as 112 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 4: there are behind the scenes discussions that we are trying 113 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 4: to ensure. 114 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: That we are prioritized. 115 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 4: But again this is a commercial environment where we cannot 116 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 4: say that the products will come to a particular country, 117 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 4: et cetera about their discussions, and we are looking at 118 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 4: options as the country as well. I think while we 119 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 4: focus is on the supply side, I think one needs 120 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 4: to emphasize that we need to also put the message 121 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 4: out there that as consumers in times like this, we 122 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 4: need to change our behavior. We also cannot behave as 123 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 4: if everything is you know, is normal. We need to 124 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 4: look at our usay short that what we have it 125 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 4: take us longer as a country and as. 126 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 2: Use us Okay, the last full price focused I saw 127 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 2: from the Central Energy Fund indicated that ninety five octane 128 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 2: petrol could see a price increase of over five rand 129 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 2: in April. Diesel expected to see I think eight rand 130 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 2: sixty price increase if I'm not mistaken. And of course, 131 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 2: as you can imagine, there are some South Africans that 132 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 2: have begun to panic. Are you saying to them that 133 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 2: there's no need to panic, because you know there's some 134 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 2: that went into panic buying these fuel products and they're 135 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 2: within in undated filling stations to try and and and 136 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 2: get the particularly diesel. 137 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 4: Yes, as you said, we expect prices to increase, but 138 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 4: they're from a supply point of view, we believe that 139 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 4: there's no shortage, and weading people obviously enough to rush 140 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 4: to the pumps and start stockpiling, because you just then 141 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 4: create a disturbance in the system which would then have 142 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 4: every deal effects to everyone. 143 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 2: What's the worst case scenario for us, mister Ballet, So 144 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 2: let's say if it gets to May and this war 145 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:27,679 Speaker 2: continues and the disruptions there by the strait of hormus continue, 146 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,679 Speaker 2: then what's the consequence on us? Because I've seen some 147 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 2: experts warning that, you know, if this conflict is prolonged, 148 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 2: as government, you may be compelled to even reintroduced drastic 149 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:43,319 Speaker 2: conservation measures. And I wonder if that is an option 150 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 2: in the worst case scenario, and what does that look like. 151 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 4: Through the economic luster. There is work that is led 152 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:55,079 Speaker 4: by the dj C that is being done to look 153 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 4: at these options. But if there's not supply. 154 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: You have to look at them. 155 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:10,079 Speaker 4: Demand side interventions to make sure that the lettle that 156 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 4: you have and can take you longer. 157 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 1: So at this point in time, my view is that. 158 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 4: No option should be off of the table as to 159 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 4: what those options are going to be and perform they're 160 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:22,599 Speaker 4: going to come with. I think that is work in 161 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 4: progress and I wouldn't want to jump the gun, but yeah, 162 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 4: we we have to look at demand side. We we 163 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 4: we have to look at usage as an option, and 164 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 4: and there are many other options that you could I 165 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,439 Speaker 4: mean you could look at I mean economy, right, I 166 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,679 Speaker 4: mean there there's there's people in other countries. They talk 167 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 4: about ructioning. We went through covert where people work from home. 168 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 4: Is that an option? I guess those studies that work 169 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 4: will will will will will put forward the options in 170 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 4: terms of the way and. 171 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 2: And as long as there's a plan do mister belly, 172 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 2: because we don't want the situation where be we become reactive. 173 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 2: We have to plan, of course for different scenarios because 174 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 2: nobody knows how long this WO is going to continue, 175 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 2: a lot of our listeners on the wsupliner asking about 176 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 2: our strategic oil reserves. How much do we have in 177 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 2: that and how long could they last us for? Are 178 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:20,080 Speaker 2: they adequate to meet international standards for supply crisis? 179 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 4: We we I think I think the numbers out in 180 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 4: the in in in the open we we have about 181 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 4: eight eight million. Is that sufficient of strategic that that 182 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:34,559 Speaker 4: if you look at the consumption that is equivalent to 183 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 4: about the of supply. 184 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 1: Yes, But but I have to indicate that. I mean 185 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 1: I spoke to our mention the name, but. 186 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 4: One of the suppliers, I mean currently in the stokeholding, 187 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 4: they've got like one of the refineries, they've got two 188 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 4: months wort of supply and we have two refineries for 189 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 4: those refineries do have some buffers with them. There are 190 00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:01,079 Speaker 4: orders that have been replaced. I'm aware that there's about 191 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 4: three million battles that is on the way by one 192 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,839 Speaker 4: of the suppliers. So we should not look at this 193 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:12,439 Speaker 4: number in isolation. We should look at it in totally 194 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 4: to its the other supplies there are there from from 195 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:17,320 Speaker 4: the refining. 196 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: Plants. 197 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 2: Okay, Jacob and Belllett, let me thank you. I'm Director 198 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:27,319 Speaker 2: General at the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. We 199 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:31,599 Speaker 2: still have Ava Funny Chifularo on the line, who is 200 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 2: with the World Industry Association of South Africa have a 201 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,719 Speaker 2: funny a lot of I mean, the common question I'm 202 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 2: getting now from our listeners is that, yes, we hear 203 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 2: what the Department is saying that there's no immediate shortage risk, 204 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 2: but the prices are rising. How do we then explain 205 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 2: it in simple terms too, so that they get to 206 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 2: understand where we're at here. 207 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the rising prices is like an area 208 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:02,199 Speaker 3: of concern for one right now, because I mean as 209 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 3: ivery indicated based on the Central Energy Fund published data 210 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 3: is showing a steep in christ so it's step increase 211 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 3: in the months of April. So that's the reality that 212 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 3: we need to face. And I think it's the major 213 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:23,719 Speaker 3: course of in panic buying because I would like to 214 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 3: believe that the issue of supply of products, I mean, 215 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 3: it's evident that we've got enough products. Otherwise we have 216 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:34,440 Speaker 3: seen a lot of fastly things running dry. By now, 217 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,719 Speaker 3: I think we are week four of the war, and 218 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 3: so the planned imports have been coming throughout this period 219 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 3: and in vessels are lending and discharging all the time. 220 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 3: So I think what is really important because we don't 221 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 3: want to reach a situation where we artificially force in 222 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 3: shortage at the sites because I mean people are rushing. 223 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 3: Because if we get into that point, it's very difficult 224 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 3: to recover. It will take us a little bit longer 225 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:08,719 Speaker 3: to make sure that I mean all those things that 226 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 3: are trying needs to replenish. So that's why we encourage 227 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 3: people to say, like, stick to your normal refueling them 228 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 3: in patterns. Don't suddenly like want to visit the same 229 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 3: station every second day because there is enough fuel, as 230 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 3: you have heard from the dgy BET. So what is 231 00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 3: important is that we need to separate what is like 232 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 3: stuff that is affected by war. Because one product is 233 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 3: inside the country, it's now into a normal distribution system 234 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 3: which is not really affected by what is happening out 235 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 3: There is now a function of the capability of our 236 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 3: own logistics. So our own logistics has been like I'm 237 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 3: in functioning on the basis of us soon demand, which 238 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 3: is roughly sixty seven million liters per day. So if 239 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 3: suddenly that demand is like now moved to like let's 240 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 3: say eighty millions a day because people are adding fuel 241 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:12,800 Speaker 3: and putting some extra shields in some drums, it's not 242 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 3: going to help us. There's no way the system can 243 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:17,320 Speaker 3: immediately cope with that said. 244 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, South Africa, at least from some observations, that's 245 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 2: become increasingly reliant on important refined world due to refine 246 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 2: right closures. How does that amplify our risk in this 247 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 2: geopolitical crisis? And do you think world companies already diversifying 248 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 2: supply roots or sourcing from alternative markets to avoid this 249 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 2: Middle East disruption? 250 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 3: Yes, there are some companies that were as sourcing fuel 251 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 3: from areas that are now affected by the Middle East 252 00:15:54,760 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 3: like conflict, which have now either like I'm in, diversified 253 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 3: or either they've moved that sort of demand to other companies. 254 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 3: So I think, Clement, what do you need to remember 255 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 3: is that, I mean South Africa is not blessed with 256 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 3: like im in oil, like im in our furlough, or 257 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 3: like I'm in countries like I'm in Angola, like Nigeria. 258 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 3: So whether you've got a refinery or not refinery, you 259 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 3: still depend on the important fit stuff Because coulde oil 260 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 3: we don't have crude, well we need to import it. 261 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 3: Let's assume that we did not even we had them 262 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 3: in refineries who are manufacturing all our requirements, we are 263 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 3: still going to be exposed to the issue of high 264 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 3: oil prices because they coulde oil has moved up and 265 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 3: it's affected by the conflict itself. So it's either way. 266 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 3: As long as you don't have your own natural resource, 267 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 3: we're dependent on imports, you're going to be exposed. So 268 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:06,000 Speaker 3: if down the line, maybe we have major discovery that 269 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 3: is a long period of time that will change the 270 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 3: equation altogether. But as it stays now, we are exposed 271 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,399 Speaker 3: to the global like and like sort of conflict iming 272 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:17,920 Speaker 3: either way. 273 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's really interesting. And do you think the 274 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 2: contingency planning, you know, issues that exist within the full 275 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 2: industry contingency measures. If this conflict becomes prolonged, do you 276 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 2: get a sense that we are prepared for sustained volatility, 277 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,880 Speaker 2: because we've got to prepare even for the worst case scenario. 278 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 3: Our biggest area of concent is the elevated prices I mean, 279 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 3: because I mean you can just think about it. They 280 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 3: don't belita I mean price, I mean that's like hectic. 281 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,680 Speaker 3: So that's really where we are consent. But in terms 282 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:01,120 Speaker 3: of bringing product and continue to supply the market, we're 283 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,000 Speaker 3: really not worried that much. 284 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 1: Day So if we reach a. 285 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 3: Point where it becomes even difficult for companies to afford 286 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 3: I mean these prices at the international market, then you're 287 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 3: going to have a problem. But we are not there. 288 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 3: We're not there. As long as we're still able to 289 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 3: like im pay for the price in the international market, 290 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:28,160 Speaker 3: we don't see any problem in terms of for supplying 291 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 3: the country. We see that, yes, it's going to be 292 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 3: extremely difficult. That is why we are working very closely 293 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 3: with government to really start to look at those scenarios 294 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,440 Speaker 3: that you are painting, to see what happens if the 295 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 3: war goes beyond May June and maybe six months, what 296 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 3: do we do as a country. So we are looking 297 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 3: into those scenarios in terms of making sure that we're 298 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 3: prepared so that we're not caught of God. 299 00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,760 Speaker 2: Well, thank you so much for coming through to help us. 300 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 2: And then the situation we find ourselves is especially now 301 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:08,159 Speaker 2: that there are some South Africans who are panic buying diesel. 302 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 2: Apparently some are inundating filling stations to try and stockpile. 303 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,440 Speaker 2: In fact, on the WhatsApp I mean on Twitter, John 304 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 2: says Clement government is lying to us. There are filling 305 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 2: stations that don't have diesel as we speak, so people 306 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 2: are quite concerned. So it's important to just touch base 307 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 2: with industry but also the Department of Energy to get 308 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 2: a sense of where we are and if they can 309 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 2: just come some tensions and reassure South Africans that there's 310 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 2: a plan in place should this war prolong. 311 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 1: So thank you to 312 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 2: Avafani Shifularo, who's the executive director at the Wills Industry 313 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 2: Association of South Africa.