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Speaker 1: Donald Trump says, great talks are happening, great, great talks,

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Speaker 1: talks with great, great prospects. But if that don't work out,

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Speaker 1: I'll obliterate Iran. Well, that's not exactly what he said,

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Speaker 1: but that's kind of what he said. And Iran says talks,

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Speaker 1: no talks, none at all. Turkey says, there have been

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Speaker 1: some approaches, and it is look either the talks are

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Speaker 1: happening or they're not, or they could be happening, but

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Speaker 1: not at a level that they can be described as talks.

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Speaker 1: It appears that there is some back channel contact through

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Speaker 1: mediators like or would be mediators like Pakistan, which might

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Speaker 1: lead if not to face to face meetings between and

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Speaker 1: a senior Iranian government official and a senior US government official,

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Speaker 1: maybe Jared Kushner, maybe Steve Vitkoff. But it talks about

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Speaker 1: talks about the possibility of talks, which might or might

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Speaker 1: not lead to talks. How would you agree or disagree

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Speaker 1: with that characterization? James ker Lindsay of Kingston University, Hello.

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Speaker 2: Hello, John. I wish I could throw some clear picture

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Speaker 2: on what's going on here, But like everyone else, I mean,

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Speaker 2: we're just hearing all sorts of different reports, and you know,

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Speaker 2: there's all sorts of theories going around. So I mean,

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Speaker 2: if you've been generous, you could say, perhaps the Trump

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Speaker 2: administration is in fact in talks with somebody from the

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Speaker 2: Iranian government hierarchy. The problem, of course, is that Iran

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Speaker 2: has been heavily bombed at the moment. It seems by

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Speaker 2: all accounts that the central administration is in disarray. There

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Speaker 2: have been suggestions that the Trump administration has been speaking

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Speaker 2: with a senior member of the parliament, for example, but

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Speaker 2: that seems to maybe not have filtered through towards other

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Speaker 2: parts of the government who are now denying it. So

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Speaker 2: that's a charitable explanation. An uncharitable would be simply to

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Speaker 2: say that Donald Trump is making this up. That could

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Speaker 2: be for all sorts of reasons. One he realizes he's

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Speaker 2: in the mess and wants to you know, this is

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Speaker 2: wishful thinking. There is a lot of very very disturbing

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Speaker 2: rumors emerging, and quite a lot of evidence to back

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Speaker 2: it up that all sorts of trades have been done

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Speaker 2: stock market trades on the back of this sort of information,

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Speaker 2: because obviously every time any new information comes out, oil

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Speaker 2: prices rise or stock prices rise, and if you time

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Speaker 2: it right, and it seems that a lot of money

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Speaker 2: has been put on a lot of trades fifteen minutes

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Speaker 2: before Trump makes his latest announcement. They're used stand to

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Speaker 2: make a lot of money. And then, of course the

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Speaker 2: third theory is that there are talks, but of course

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Speaker 2: the Urnian government is denying it for whatever reason, maybe

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Speaker 2: just to embarrass Trump. They have been proving particularly adept

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Speaker 2: at that in putting Trump into a corner. So every

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Speaker 2: time Trump sort of says, yes, we want an off brand,

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Speaker 2: we can end this, the Ornian government say, well, no,

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Speaker 2: we're not being interested in talks and we'll continue to

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Speaker 2: keep the straight up Horner's blocked. So look, there are

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Speaker 2: lots and lots of theories that are going around, but

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Speaker 2: it's just there's a shortage of any real clarity at

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Speaker 2: the moment.

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Speaker 1: Would it be fair to say, though, that it seems

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Speaker 1: probable that Trump was I don't know who he listens to,

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Speaker 1: but if there is anybody who listens to that person

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Speaker 1: dropped a word in his ear about he's forty eight

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Speaker 1: hour deadline to open the strait of war moves and

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Speaker 1: the response from Iran and said, this is one we're

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Speaker 1: not going to win. If we do it, we'll do

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Speaker 1: it successfully, but the consequences will be extremely negative for

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Speaker 1: the world and for chances of reelection of your party

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Speaker 1: Faithful in the mid terms later this year. Because I

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Speaker 1: do think that this is a Taco moment. I do

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Speaker 1: think that maybe at the time that he made the thread,

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Speaker 1: he thought it was a great idea. For the moment,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't think it's a great idea, And the fact

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Speaker 1: that he doesn't think it's a great idea is a

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Speaker 1: great idea.

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Speaker 2: Well, yes, absolutely. And also, I mean, the thing is

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Speaker 2: all right. You could say that the United States isn't

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Speaker 2: bothered by such things, but it had become very very clear,

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Speaker 2: very quickly, from pretty much across the legal spectrum that

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Speaker 2: if Trump carried through with his threat to bomb power stations,

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Speaker 2: that would be a war crime, and it would be

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Speaker 2: very very obviously, and he has signaled it as such.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I don't think Trump for one moment

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Speaker 2: thinks that he you know, he would stand a chance

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Speaker 2: have been pulled up before the International Criminal Court or

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Speaker 2: anything like that. But nevertheless, it was just so obviously

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Speaker 2: condemned across the board that I think that maybe he felt, well,

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Speaker 2: you know this this is perhaps a step too far,

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Speaker 2: but again it becomes very very difficult to get a

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Speaker 2: proper sense of what exactly is going on here. And

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Speaker 2: it's again there seems to be all sorts of evidence

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Speaker 2: emerging of very significant trades on the back of each

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Speaker 2: of these different statements, and people making a lot of

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Speaker 2: money out of all of this.

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Speaker 1: And a divergence of strategy between Netanyahu and Trump, between

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Speaker 1: the Israelis and the Americans, because it again we don't know,

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Speaker 1: we're speculating that it does seem that the Americans are

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Speaker 1: a little more interested in an ORF ramp than the

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Speaker 1: Israelis are.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I mean I think for Netanyahu, I mean, we

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Speaker 2: know that he has severe political problems, or he has

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Speaker 2: at least had severe political problems and legal problems, and

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Speaker 2: so there's you know, one could argue that there is

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Speaker 2: a lot for Netanya who to be gained by pummeling

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Speaker 2: Iran as much as possible but not actually bringing the

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Speaker 2: regime down. Whereas for the United States, I think that

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Speaker 2: Trump now sees that he's confronted with a huge problem

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Speaker 2: of he sets all these ambitious goals at the start

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Speaker 2: about and we're now in a situation. But frankly, it

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Speaker 2: seems that number one goal of the American government is

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Speaker 2: to keep the straight up one was open, which everyone

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Speaker 2: points out, well, that was the case before this wretched

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Speaker 2: war started in the first place. So I think Netanyahu

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Speaker 2: sort of emerges even if the regime remains intact, he

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Speaker 2: remains in a strong position he can say, listen, I

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Speaker 2: had to stop because the American government eventually told me

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Speaker 2: that we had to stop. But make no mistake, We're

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Speaker 2: still confronted with a very dangerous regime in Iran, and

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Speaker 2: I still need to lead Israel to provide the security

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Speaker 2: that Israel needs. But of course the United States is

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Speaker 2: based with a very very different set of problems. And

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Speaker 2: what will also be interesting in all of this is that,

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Speaker 2: of course, before this kicked off, that Christy Noham, who

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Speaker 2: had held a senior position in the US government, had

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Speaker 2: been far from her job. I wonder if a lot

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Speaker 2: of people are now wondering if Pete Hegsett, who is

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Speaker 2: probably one of the more hawkish people constantly wanting to

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Speaker 2: have a war, and maybe persuaded Trump that this was

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Speaker 2: going to be a war that would be very very easily.

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Speaker 2: While it would be the most beautiful and quick war

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Speaker 2: of all time. Trump will seek his punishment for having

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Speaker 2: been led into what has been so utterly disastrous for

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Speaker 2: the United States, but also for Trump personally.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, very very much, indeed for your time, much appreciated.

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Speaker 1: James Kerlindsey is a senior research Fellow at Kingston University