1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: I sometimes read what Donald Trump has had to say, 2 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:12,639 Speaker 1: and I kind of am reminded of Humpty Dumpty. I 3 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 1: don't know if you recall Humpty Dumpty in through Looking Glass, 4 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: when he said, when I use a word, it means 5 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less. 6 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:34,279 Speaker 1: And there's no other explanation for Donald Trump saying that 7 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: the US is in serious discussions with a new Iranian regime. 8 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 1: I quote from truth Social The United States of America 9 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: is in serious discussions with a new and more reasonable 10 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: regime to end our military operations in Iran. Great progress 11 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: has been made. But if for any reason a deal 12 00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 1: does not shortly reached, but which it probably will be, 13 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 1: and if the Hall moves strait is not immediately open 14 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: for business, we will conclude our lovely stay in Iran 15 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:13,759 Speaker 1: by blowing up and completely obliterating all their electricity generating plants, 16 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:20,199 Speaker 1: oil wells, and carg island, and possibly all de salonization 17 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: plants which we have purposely not yet touched. This will 18 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,040 Speaker 1: be in retribution from many soldiers and others that Iran 19 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 1: has butchered and killed over the old regime's forty seven 20 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: year reign of terror. That's another humpty dumpty thing. That 21 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 1: there has been regime change in Iran. That's what he 22 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 1: and Hexcess and Erubio are now starting to say. There 23 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: has been regime change in Iran. Mission accomplished the discussion 24 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 1: with Professor Yossi Meckelberg holor Yossi Loja. Okay, there is contact. 25 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 1: There is contact. It appears through Pakistan, and that the 26 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: Iranian regime unchanged, yes, different personnel, but unchanged is sending 27 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 1: and receiving messages from Pakistan, and so too is the 28 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: American government sending and receiving messages to Pakistan. Is there 29 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: anything more than that happening? 30 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 2: Do you think you probably didn't hear me, because I 31 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 2: was listening very carefully to what you say about humpty 32 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 2: dumpty and I completely agree with you. And that's you know, 33 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 2: this is the probably what we result in analysis right 34 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 2: now because we hear contradictory terms, and whatever Thump says, 35 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 2: not only even on the day, on the hour, becomes 36 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 2: the new reality. While bombing continues at the countries in 37 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 2: the region's region ahead, the Americans in involvement Israelis and 38 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 2: then talk about regime change. But what is the regime change. 39 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 2: Some there have been killed, but the regime actually shows 40 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:08,920 Speaker 2: its ability to survive and is resilient. So is it 41 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 2: basically what Tumpt is telling us, I got tired of 42 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 2: the war. I see the consequences to the economy, to 43 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 2: my standing in the opinion pause those. I think mid 44 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 2: terrum is coming closed, and I need to bring this 45 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,239 Speaker 2: war to an end. But this is the reality that 46 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:30,919 Speaker 2: it creates. 47 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: Do you think the Iranians want And well, surely the 48 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: Iranians want an end to what is happening, but not 49 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 1: at any price. And publicly they have said the fifteen 50 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 1: point plan which has been put forward by the Americans 51 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: is no more than a surrender document, and there is 52 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: no way they are going to accept it. And they 53 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 1: have some basic principles in place for an agreement that 54 00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: they would be prepared to sign, which the Americans seem 55 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 1: unlikely to take on board. So, you know, whatever Trump says, 56 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 1: on the ground, things continue pretty much as they have 57 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 1: for the last four weeks and a couple of days. 58 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 2: You're right, and in many ways the reignings are negotiating 59 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 2: the way they always rning. It's the long boat there is. 60 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 2: They have the long view of history. You know, they 61 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 2: have the United States in this sense despite all the 62 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 2: heat that they got where they won't because what they 63 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 2: wanted is to prevent the United States and is a 64 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 2: have a quick victory. The mining that it's entering into 65 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 2: the second month, and they assume that they can ignore 66 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 2: domestic pressure despite the hitt that they are getting because 67 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:56,720 Speaker 2: it's a cool and ruseless regime unfortunately to it's on 68 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 2: people in the region. But at the same time, they 69 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 2: won't the pressure to build in the United States, in Israel, 70 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 2: in the region in order to see to test their results, 71 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 2: because they don't want to stop to build their new capability. 72 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 2: They don't want to reduce the capacity of launching ballistic 73 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 2: missiles and even more they want even more to boxes 74 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 2: because they feel threatened right now is a result of 75 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 2: the war, so then then the result of it, they 76 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 2: feel in many ways impotant to continue, especially when they 77 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 2: manage to close the strait of foremost. We found an 78 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 2: a the greate response from the United States. 79 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 1: Do you think there is a way of getting a 80 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 1: straight up a mouse opened. We had over the weekend 81 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 1: at least a couple of missiles fired from Yemen by 82 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: the hooties towards Israel, and for the moment, I haven't 83 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:03,839 Speaker 1: to mind knowledge made any pronouncements about attacking shipping in 84 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:06,159 Speaker 1: the Red Sea, which you would add another pressure point 85 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 1: to global trade. But it is there a way? Is 86 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: there a clever formula for opening the straight of all mood? 87 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 1: Do you think? 88 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 2: That's the big question. But in any scenarios that I 89 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:26,280 Speaker 2: looked over the years, the first things that you would, 90 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,160 Speaker 2: you know, any strategists will try to think when they 91 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 2: are talking about the war with Iran is to ensure 92 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 2: that the one closest straight or foremost, because this was 93 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:40,039 Speaker 2: the obvious thing for Iran to do, because this is 94 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 2: the one of the main cults they have. The fact 95 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 2: that they managed to do is either you know, the 96 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:50,359 Speaker 2: strategist in the United States in a don't think that 97 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:53,479 Speaker 2: this is possible. But then they will have to see 98 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,279 Speaker 2: what they do in order to prolong the war. The 99 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 2: worst case scenario is to leave the war where it 100 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 2: is now, when the regime that is so wusetless is 101 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 2: badly held but not finished, and there is a no 102 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 2: diplomatic solution that to vent them to continue when the 103 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 2: start before and it doesn't seem so far. That's actually 104 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 2: the United States as an answer to how to reopen 105 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 2: the state of Armos. 106 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 1: It's ground troops increasingly being talked about. And I was 107 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: reading something over the weekend about the eighty second Airborne 108 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 1: Division and the work is done previously and the presence 109 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: of Delta forces and reading some kind of almost like 110 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 1: sci fi stories about taking over carg Island. And if 111 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 1: you take carg Island, that's ninety percent of Iran's oil 112 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: goes over there. So you say to Iran, we're in 113 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 1: control of carg Island, and if you don't open the 114 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 1: strait of or moves, you're not going to get any 115 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: oil out. So we both suffer. Let's see who blinks first. 116 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 1: And then you know, sending the airborne and the Delta 117 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: plus these specialist troops that are trained around radioactive material 118 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 1: to go and retrieve the highly enriched uranium from where 119 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 1: it is deep underground in central Iran. And you think 120 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 1: about the number of casualties that would result on both 121 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 1: the Iranian and the American side if this were to 122 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: happen and go. You know what, the Iranians would be 123 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: less worried about those deaths than the Americans, and will 124 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 1: Trump authorize ground troops. 125 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 2: I think this is exactly the point they're raising the stakes. 126 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 2: It shows that the idea that you know there would 127 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 2: be an easy victory there. I think that the United 128 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 2: States is to an extent understand this is not going 129 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 2: to happen. But I think the Auranians would be concerned 130 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 2: because they're raising the stakes. And the question now, as 131 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 2: you say who blinks first, is trom going to blink 132 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 2: and all this building of you know, the idea of 133 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,960 Speaker 2: troops and ten thousands of people and soldiers and taking 134 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 2: the High Island and try to find the four hundred 135 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 2: and eight killer guns of enrich highly enriched uranium and 136 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 2: then finish the war if they have plans to do that, 137 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 2: and they can do it a successfully and be with 138 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 2: minimum casualties. This really kind of they test each other, 139 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:28,200 Speaker 2: you know, their resolved to a very to the very 140 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 2: to the very extreme. But then the question there, if 141 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 2: it succeed, then the United States can probably declare victory. 142 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:40,199 Speaker 2: If it fails, wealthy to take the well, so it 143 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 2: do take it from there. 144 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,239 Speaker 1: You take it. Thank you You'resue Meckelberg for your contributions 145 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 1: after and you take it to the world of Humpty Dumpty. 146 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 1: Even though everybody else in the world other than Donald 147 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 1: Trump and his most slavish acolytes, knows that the war 148 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: has not been one, he will pronounce it one and 149 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:05,839 Speaker 1: move on. Do this with his hands, and move on. 150 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 1: What did Humpty Dumpty say? A word means what I 151 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 1: want it to mean.