WEBVTT - Farming forecaster: Predicting pasture growth with decision support tools 0:00:00.300 --> 0:00:05.130 Today's episode discusses mental health and suicide prevention. If you 0:00:05.130 --> 0:00:08.398 find this discussion upsetting or you feel you'd like more 0:00:08.400 --> 0:00:13.410 support with your mental health, please contact Lifeline on 13-11- 0:00:13.590 --> 0:00:18.570 14 or the Mental Health Hotline on 1- 800- 011- 0:00:19.440 --> 0:00:23.700 511. And please, go to our show notes where we 0:00:23.700 --> 0:00:27.360 have provided these links and more resources for your information. 0:00:33.900 --> 0:00:37.019 This is Seeds for Success, a show where we have 0:00:37.020 --> 0:00:39.990 a good yarn about ag life with producers who are 0:00:39.990 --> 0:00:42.720 having a go. On the show, you'll hear from farmers 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:45.330 in New South Wales who are out there battling the 0:00:45.330 --> 0:00:49.679 elements, making tough calls, and getting the job done. You'll 0:00:49.679 --> 0:00:51.929 get a laugh out of some of their stories, and 0:00:51.929 --> 0:00:54.750 also pick up some know- how along the way. I'm 0:00:54.750 --> 0:01:02.490 your host, Neroli Brennan. In this week's episode, we're reaching 0:01:02.490 --> 0:01:05.490 out to talk to one of the farmers you suggested 0:01:05.730 --> 0:01:09.750 through our Nominate a Mate campaign. In today's episode, we 0:01:09.750 --> 0:01:12.990 are catching up with John Murdoch from Bombala on the 0:01:12.990 --> 0:01:17.369 Southern Monaro. John farms in partnership with his wife and 0:01:17.370 --> 0:01:21.990 father in a mixed- farming business, consisting of merinos, first 0:01:21.990 --> 0:01:26.459 cross ewes, Angus cattle, and fodder cropping. As you'll hear 0:01:26.459 --> 0:01:29.158 today, John gives us a bit of an insight into 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:32.640 farming in the Monaro and talks to us about his 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:36.479 role as a previous chair and board member of Monaro 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:40.050 Farming Systems Group. John talks through one of the major 0:01:40.050 --> 0:01:44.069 projects the group has managed in the Farming Forecaster network, 0:01:44.309 --> 0:01:48.059 and how that pasture prediction support tool has helped decision- 0:01:48.059 --> 0:01:52.890 making on his own farm. John is also an outspoken 0:01:52.920 --> 0:01:56.820 advocate for mental health amongst farmers, and gives us a 0:01:56.820 --> 0:02:00.750 candid insight into his own mental health battles as a 0:02:00.750 --> 0:02:04.620 result of farming pressures and the disasters he has faced. 0:02:05.369 --> 0:02:09.480 Local Land Services mixed farming advisor, Rohan Leach, reached out 0:02:09.480 --> 0:02:12.630 across the Monaro and caught up with John for this 0:02:12.630 --> 0:02:13.320 great chat. 0:02:17.309 --> 0:02:20.880 G'day, listeners. Today I'm with another of our Nominate a Mate suggestions 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:23.969 from our audience, John Murdoch. John, welcome to the Seeds 0:02:23.969 --> 0:02:25.200 for Success Podcast. 0:02:25.710 --> 0:02:28.500 Thanks, Rohan, for having me. I'm very happy to be here. 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:31.110 Mate, can I get you just to start off with 0:02:31.110 --> 0:02:33.060 a bit of a rundown of your farm business? 0:02:33.450 --> 0:02:38.700 We're a mixed- grazing enterprise on the Southern Monaro. We 0:02:38.700 --> 0:02:43.410 operate on two properties, about 2, 500 hectares combined. We're about 75% 0:02:44.430 --> 0:02:48.389 sheep based in our DSEs with a merino ewe breeding base 0:02:48.870 --> 0:02:52.109 for the 50% to 60% to a border Leicester. And then, on the cattle 0:02:52.110 --> 0:02:55.799 side, the balance of the DSEs is an Angus breeding herd. 0:02:55.889 --> 0:02:59.730 And within that, a small seed stock production enterprise, which 0:02:59.820 --> 0:03:03.060 we run our genetics out of and supply a few 0:03:03.060 --> 0:03:06.720 other people with genetics as well. And we're working to 0:03:06.720 --> 0:03:09.750 actually shift that balance of DSEs to probably a greater 0:03:09.750 --> 0:03:12.329 weighting on cattle and bringing back the sheep numbers. 0:03:12.719 --> 0:03:16.139 And is that just from a labor perspective or just the 0:03:16.139 --> 0:03:18.569 margins aren't in sheep as much at the moment? 0:03:18.900 --> 0:03:21.210 I think like everyone, the last couple of years have 0:03:21.210 --> 0:03:24.869 been challenging with sheep. But it's not just labor, it's 0:03:25.169 --> 0:03:28.440 the rise of input costs as a whole. And we're 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:31.258 just finding that we can run the cattle DSEs much 0:03:31.258 --> 0:03:34.288 more competitively against the sheep where it was difficult to 0:03:34.288 --> 0:03:37.440 do. The 10 years prior, the sheep were so profitable, 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:40.350 the cattle really took a backseat. But the last two 0:03:40.350 --> 0:03:43.110 years have made us look at our farming system. My 0:03:43.110 --> 0:03:47.040 dad's retired and stepping back as a labor unit. And 0:03:47.550 --> 0:03:50.340 yeah, I found it a lot more challenging with the 0:03:50.340 --> 0:03:53.789 existing labor myself. And so, part of it is obviously 0:03:53.789 --> 0:03:57.660 profitability driven and other is probably sanity and lifestyle driven 0:03:57.660 --> 0:03:58.050 as well. 0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:01.110 Absolutely. I know a lot of people in recent years 0:04:01.350 --> 0:04:04.770 have probably gotten sick of chasing fly in sheep and 0:04:05.400 --> 0:04:09.030 just the general input cost, like you mentioned, which is 0:04:09.030 --> 0:04:12.570 a real shame because they're such a integral part of 0:04:12.630 --> 0:04:17.310 rural communities. But you've really mentioned there and a focus 0:04:17.310 --> 0:04:21.690 on your DSE rating. Yeah, what sort of DSE capacity 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:24.599 per hectare is a lot of your country? I'm assuming 0:04:24.599 --> 0:04:27.990 there's probably a big mix of soil types and those 0:04:27.990 --> 0:04:30.450 sorts of things that influence that. 0:04:30.900 --> 0:04:35.520 Our main farm's 100% basalt. And that's a low cost, 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:38.880 probably seven to eight DSEs, pushing a lot higher on 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:43.080 the river flat country. And then, you shift out to our southern 0:04:43.080 --> 0:04:45.809 block, which is granite and then a bit higher rainfall. It's 0:04:46.139 --> 0:04:49.650 10 to 12 DSE per hectare country out there. 0:04:50.100 --> 0:04:54.120 And so, what are the the pasture types across some 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:54.599 of your soils? 0:04:54.660 --> 0:04:57.660 For those that haven't ever traveled to the Monaro, our 0:04:57.660 --> 0:05:02.520 hilly country is very naturalized, so full of native pollers and stipers. And 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:06.058 then into the improved country on the basalt we had 0:05:06.059 --> 0:05:10.589 a traditional fillera space pasture system. We've in our system 0:05:10.589 --> 0:05:14.820 use on the basalt, particularly lucerne as our primary improved 0:05:14.820 --> 0:05:18.000 pasture mix, whether they're straight stands or in a mix. 0:05:18.210 --> 0:05:20.850 And then on the granite country, which is more acidic, 0:05:20.910 --> 0:05:25.170 we use fescues and short to medium term rye grasses. 0:05:26.430 --> 0:05:30.930 You're carrying your breeding stock on those grass pastures and 0:05:30.930 --> 0:05:33.570 finishing stock on the lucerne for example? 0:05:33.690 --> 0:05:36.780 Yeah, we run a pretty active pasture improvement program. We 0:05:37.500 --> 0:05:42.330 work on working probably 100 to 200 hectares a year and putting 0:05:42.330 --> 0:05:45.810 that through a fodder cropping rotation and then into a 0:05:45.810 --> 0:05:50.099 pasture. And that is the primary engine room for our 0:05:50.190 --> 0:05:53.790 lamb finishing. And with our steers we wean the steers, 0:05:53.790 --> 0:05:56.580 we wean in March, April and we actually winter them 0:05:56.580 --> 0:06:00.149 through on crop and target feedlot entry in August, September. 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:03.120 If we come into a big spring then, then we 0:06:03.120 --> 0:06:06.000 have the option with those fodder crops to take those 0:06:06.060 --> 0:06:09.479 weaners onto to heavier, to kill weights. But that's how 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:12.540 we juggle our feed gap is have some winter crops 0:06:12.540 --> 0:06:17.159 in particularly targeting the cattle and the Merino wether portion 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:21.089 of our merino flock. We usually slaughter them after shearing 0:06:21.089 --> 0:06:21.780 them in July. 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:25.529 That's really good. I was interested in the system and 0:06:25.529 --> 0:06:28.980 you've explained that pretty well, especially with timing and dates 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:31.469 and stuff there. What sort of fodder crops are you 0:06:31.469 --> 0:06:33.690 using and do you grow any grain crops? 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:36.329 We use wheat a lot through the winter and annual 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:39.240 rye are our primary winter fodder crops. As well as 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:42.720 that we're just using a lot more grazing canola as well. But 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:45.959 the real bread and butter of our winter growth is in 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:48.238 our wheat and annual rye so where we can still 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:53.400 get some winter production. The Monaro is a very, very cold 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:58.830 winter being the altitude we are. And so, most pasture 0:06:58.830 --> 0:07:04.830 types are fundamentally dormant through winter. We do get growth 0:07:04.830 --> 0:07:07.950 in those winter fodder crops help that system operate. 0:07:08.009 --> 0:07:11.279 Yeah. You want to go into winter with the good bulk of standing 0:07:11.279 --> 0:07:14.970 feed to draw on basically, and fodder crops are providing that? 0:07:15.180 --> 0:07:19.290 Yeah, look, I mean our rule of thumb, that's certainly for young 0:07:19.290 --> 0:07:22.320 stock. Our rule of thumb is if we're not winter feeding, 0:07:22.320 --> 0:07:26.429 supplementary feeding, particularly in our sheep, our sheep breeding, a new 0:07:26.429 --> 0:07:29.879 base, we probably don't have enough stock on once spring 0:07:29.879 --> 0:07:33.930 hits. We will have a winter feeding program every year. 0:07:34.050 --> 0:07:38.849 And that's targeting in lamb sheep and we scan all 0:07:38.849 --> 0:07:42.659 our breeding ewes. And so obviously trying to give the 0:07:43.290 --> 0:07:46.619 twin and multiples a more precise ration. And then sometimes 0:07:46.619 --> 0:07:49.080 we don't feed singles, sometimes we do. It depends what 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:49.950 sort of autumn we've had. 0:07:50.610 --> 0:07:53.370 How's the season shaping up this year on the Monaro? 0:07:53.490 --> 0:07:54.990 By the way what's your closest town? 0:07:55.320 --> 0:07:58.710 Closest town is a little town called Bombala. Which our 0:07:58.710 --> 0:08:01.709 main farm's north of Bombala and we have a smaller 0:08:01.710 --> 0:08:05.369 satellite block, the granite block, which is south of Bombala. 0:08:05.580 --> 0:08:08.520 That's within 20 minutes, 25 minutes to drive from one 0:08:08.520 --> 0:08:11.190 farm to the other. Our closest major town that people 0:08:11.190 --> 0:08:12.480 know of would be Cooma. 0:08:12.780 --> 0:08:15.690 Well, I think Bombala has actually rocketed to fame on 0:08:15.690 --> 0:08:18.270 this latest season of Farmer Wants a wife. One of 0:08:18.270 --> 0:08:22.110 the boys on there is enjoying himself with some lovely ladies. 0:08:22.170 --> 0:08:23.880 Yeah, I know Joe very well. 0:08:24.930 --> 0:08:27.870 It's good to hear. Yeah, how's the season shaping up this 0:08:27.870 --> 0:08:28.170 year, mate? 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:31.170 The season has been like a light switch down here 0:08:31.170 --> 0:08:33.208 for the last 12 months. It's either been on or 0:08:33.210 --> 0:08:36.179 off. We had a very dry end to summer and 0:08:36.300 --> 0:08:39.719 then got a autumn break in April, start of April and 0:08:39.719 --> 0:08:43.140 we've had nothing since. And so now we're on a 0:08:43.140 --> 0:08:45.150 bit of a knife edge. We're getting to the end 0:08:45.150 --> 0:08:47.760 or very much at the end of our growing season, but 0:08:47.820 --> 0:08:51.929 we've still got soil temp. And any rain now would 0:08:51.929 --> 0:08:54.629 be of help. New established pastures are just sitting there 0:08:54.719 --> 0:08:58.049 with single leaves sticking up, looking very thirsty. And another 0:08:58.049 --> 0:09:00.479 drink on them would certainly help them get through winter. 0:09:00.900 --> 0:09:04.290 And obviously lucerne, one of your main species is probably 0:09:04.290 --> 0:09:07.800 switching off now, so hopefully onto the fodder crops soon. 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:10.708 Yeah, that's right. I mean lucerne is, we just haven't 0:09:10.710 --> 0:09:14.578 had the consistent frosts. Lucerne is still producing a bit 0:09:14.580 --> 0:09:17.939 not significant growth rates, but we just still are carrying 0:09:17.940 --> 0:09:20.730 enough soil temp that we can get a little bit 0:09:20.730 --> 0:09:22.470 of growth. I mean I think we've only got probably 0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:25.770 another two weeks window before we're really shut down now, 0:09:26.010 --> 0:09:28.800 which is quite late for us. You'd think by the 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:31.230 start of May where our growing season would be very 0:09:31.230 --> 0:09:33.478 much over, but this year we've just still got that 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:36.539 soil moisture due to not having the runoff frost. Soil 0:09:36.540 --> 0:09:38.880 temperature, not soil moisture, unfortunately. I'd love to have the 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:39.510 soil moisture. 0:09:40.530 --> 0:09:42.870 Good to have both. Thanks for giving us the run 0:09:42.870 --> 0:09:45.390 down on the block and how the season's shaping up. 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:49.229 I believe that you've been a previous chair of the 0:09:49.230 --> 0:09:52.050 Monaro Farming systems group, is that right? 0:09:52.949 --> 0:09:56.520 Yes, that's correct. I spent about eight or nine years 0:09:56.520 --> 0:09:59.430 on the board with them and finished my time and 0:09:59.550 --> 0:10:00.750 I wasn't allowed to stay any longer. 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:03.719 They had to drag you kicking and screaming. Mate, can 0:10:03.719 --> 0:10:05.309 you just tell us a bit about that group? 0:10:05.429 --> 0:10:08.940 Yeah, look, it's a fantastic group. It was based off the 0:10:09.030 --> 0:10:13.110 Birchip Cropping Group, but it was really looking at some 0:10:13.260 --> 0:10:17.010 pioneers before my time looked at the extension base and R& 0:10:17.070 --> 0:10:19.439 D base in our region and realized that there was 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:23.760 a significant gap there, particularly with DPI flagging and then 0:10:24.179 --> 0:10:27.509 executing in terms of removing extension. That there was a 0:10:27.509 --> 0:10:32.820 need for some really focused Monaro- based R& D. A group 0:10:32.820 --> 0:10:35.490 of farmers essentially created the group and it was a membership- 0:10:35.490 --> 0:10:39.060 based group and it was supported by the federal government 0:10:39.150 --> 0:10:42.540 initially in terms of some funding for administration. And it 0:10:42.540 --> 0:10:45.990 just grew from strength to strength there through the engagement 0:10:46.049 --> 0:10:50.400 of its members and has really delivered some significant projects 0:10:50.429 --> 0:10:54.060 to the Monaro and state and to some extent federally 0:10:54.090 --> 0:10:58.529 with something like Farming Forecaster. It's a very progressive and forward- 0:10:58.770 --> 0:10:59.610 moving group. 0:11:00.059 --> 0:11:02.218 Great that you've touched on one of my subjects there 0:11:02.219 --> 0:11:04.619 that we will probably explore a little bit later, but 0:11:04.619 --> 0:11:06.420 what sort of projects did it look at? 0:11:06.570 --> 0:11:10.170 It's done a significant amount of work and early in 0:11:10.170 --> 0:11:13.710 soil carbon, so we've got 10 years if not more, 0:11:13.740 --> 0:11:16.049 history of soil carbon on some of the sites across 0:11:16.050 --> 0:11:21.030 the Monaro. We've got some really accurate data. Well, robust 0:11:21.030 --> 0:11:23.070 data in the sense that over a long period of 0:11:23.070 --> 0:11:27.660 time around soil carbon, it's focused a lot on I 0:11:27.660 --> 0:11:33.030 guess productivity and profitability within farming systems. It set up 0:11:33.030 --> 0:11:37.588 benchmarking groups within the region and got really championed the 0:11:37.590 --> 0:11:42.870 balance between production profitability and sustainability, which was really the 0:11:42.870 --> 0:11:45.780 ethos of the group. You had to call that an A 0:11:45.780 --> 0:11:48.780 triple bottom line. We were really targeting things that did that. 0:11:49.050 --> 0:11:52.348 And what was the sort of uptake in practice change 0:11:52.349 --> 0:11:56.340 from? Have they really supported it and continue to do so 0:11:56.340 --> 0:11:58.829 or was it a bit of a flash in the pan? 0:11:59.219 --> 0:12:01.559 No, if you look at looking at your business life 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:04.468 cycle, it's got to maturity and it's stayed there. It 0:12:04.470 --> 0:12:08.010 hasn't declined. We set up one of our biggest events is the 0:12:08.010 --> 0:12:12.420 Soils Club. Every year everyone routinely goes out and sample 0:12:12.420 --> 0:12:16.769 tests paddocks and that is fed back into a soil database 0:12:16.770 --> 0:12:20.670 and all the participants get trends in their soil fertility 0:12:20.730 --> 0:12:23.910 reported back to them. But in combination to that, you've 0:12:23.910 --> 0:12:26.789 got experts each year coming down in December and talking 0:12:26.790 --> 0:12:30.300 around soil health and soil fertility and it's really matured. 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:34.740 This is an example, matured. We're not just now talking 0:12:35.250 --> 0:12:41.400 sulfur, phosphorus, we're now onto micronutrients. It's really lifted and 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:44.490 matured a group of producers and taken everyone along for 0:12:44.490 --> 0:12:44.940 the ride. 0:12:44.970 --> 0:12:48.179 That's awesome. I love when farmers get nerdy about their 0:12:48.179 --> 0:12:51.539 soils, so it's good to hear that things, it sounds 0:12:51.540 --> 0:12:53.909 like it's going from strength to strength. Mate, we might 0:12:53.910 --> 0:12:57.208 move on to the Farming Forecaster that you mentioned just 0:12:57.210 --> 0:13:01.949 before. Yeah, obviously one of the originating projects from the 0:13:02.070 --> 0:13:06.449 Monaro Farming Systems group. Can you explain what that project 0:13:06.450 --> 0:13:07.439 or program does? 0:13:07.650 --> 0:13:11.070 Yes. We were always using the CSIRO model grass grow 0:13:11.070 --> 0:13:15.990 to run seasonal outlooks for our members on a quarterly 0:13:15.990 --> 0:13:20.218 basis to give a forecast of where the season was 0:13:20.220 --> 0:13:22.980 looking from a feed base. And where that evolved was 0:13:22.980 --> 0:13:25.799 that we saw the value of having soil moisture data 0:13:25.860 --> 0:13:29.190 to be able to add to that forecast. And so, 0:13:29.369 --> 0:13:32.970 initially it was set up within Monaro farming systems table 0:13:32.970 --> 0:13:37.858 and farming systems, I believe it was Holbrook Landcare and 0:13:37.859 --> 0:13:41.848 the CSIRO. And I believe LLS were involved too, that we 0:13:41.849 --> 0:13:45.599 decided to put together a network of these soil probes 0:13:45.599 --> 0:13:48.840 with grass grow farm models sitting on top of them. 0:13:49.830 --> 0:13:53.880 What you would get is real time soil moisture data 0:13:53.940 --> 0:13:58.679 and temperature driving a forward- looking fodder based forecast based 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:01.980 on the pasture species and climate for that environment. And 0:14:01.980 --> 0:14:04.530 really, with the rollout of that, it started with about 0:14:04.708 --> 0:14:08.370 six or seven sites, it grew to 15. Now it's 0:14:08.370 --> 0:14:13.020 up to about 190 sites across New South Wales, Tasmania 0:14:13.020 --> 0:14:17.189 and WA. And looking, and I'm told to expand by 0:14:17.190 --> 0:14:20.009 another a hundred sites through New South Wales, Victoria and 0:14:20.009 --> 0:14:23.129 South Australia in the coming 12 months. And so what 0:14:23.129 --> 0:14:27.600 you're really getting there now is a significantly powerful seasonal 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:28.800 modeling tool. 0:14:29.670 --> 0:14:32.429 What do you use that modeling for? What sort of 0:14:32.429 --> 0:14:33.600 decisions does it help you with? 0:14:33.870 --> 0:14:36.570 It is primarily a decision support tool. And so it's 0:14:36.570 --> 0:14:40.499 looking at, it's really flagging early where you are your 0:14:40.500 --> 0:14:44.880 trajectory into an uncomfortable situation or a situation of opportunity. 0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:49.620 It's if you are feeling like things are getting tight, you 0:14:49.620 --> 0:14:51.929 can look on your nearest probe or this probe that 0:14:51.929 --> 0:14:55.980 matches your farm system in terms of soil type. And 0:14:55.980 --> 0:14:58.739 get an indication of where the model in the next 0:14:58.740 --> 0:15:03.840 six months are looking like. And it can then be a decision 0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:06.450 support till to either, " I've got to start buying in 0:15:06.450 --> 0:15:10.949 feed." Or, " No, I think I'm okay. We've still got time. 0:15:11.460 --> 0:15:14.280 There's still a lot of upside there." And conversely, it's 0:15:14.759 --> 0:15:19.200 making timely decisions in trading opportunities when you may have 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:21.900 a surplus of feed in your farm system, which you're 0:15:21.900 --> 0:15:24.900 not aware of, that you're not fully comprehending how much 0:15:25.020 --> 0:15:28.020 moisture you've got in your soil profile and how much 0:15:28.110 --> 0:15:31.889 soil temp future climatic influences may give you in terms 0:15:31.889 --> 0:15:34.619 of fodder. And so, it's flagging those things so you 0:15:34.619 --> 0:15:38.190 can make decisions earlier and hopefully more profitably to your farm. 0:15:38.610 --> 0:15:43.620 How is that fodder information and predicted fodder growth displayed 0:15:43.620 --> 0:15:44.370 or presented? 0:15:44.790 --> 0:15:48.389 Displayed primarily in the graph format and it will graphically 0:15:48.389 --> 0:15:52.020 display based on a model run of the last 50 0:15:52.020 --> 0:15:57.030 years of rainfall and temperature where you would likely end 0:15:57.030 --> 0:16:00.330 up from day zero essentially, which is when that reading 0:16:00.330 --> 0:16:03.360 is currently taking place. And it will give you a 0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:08.400 spread of deciles. And I believe it's zero to 10 0:16:09.270 --> 0:16:13.950 percentile, it might be zero to 15 percentile. The 15 percentiles of worst years 0:16:14.250 --> 0:16:18.510 will lead you this way, your average bands, middle percentiles 0:16:18.870 --> 0:16:20.760 will lead you this way. And then in the top 0:16:21.000 --> 0:16:25.500 15% of years you would end up here in terms of kilograms 0:16:25.559 --> 0:16:28.260 of dry matter per hectare. And it's important to point 0:16:28.260 --> 0:16:32.160 out that that kilograms per hectare of dry matter is 0:16:32.220 --> 0:16:35.760 based on what the farm model is at that site. 0:16:36.990 --> 0:16:40.349 They might be working on a system that's 50% improved, 50% 0:16:40.349 --> 0:16:45.059 native or 100% native. That kilograms per hectare will fluctuate 0:16:45.059 --> 0:16:48.869 depending on what farm model is sitting at that site. 0:16:48.900 --> 0:16:52.020 But the trends will be generally consistent. 0:16:52.410 --> 0:16:55.770 You might look at the soil probe site for one 0:16:55.770 --> 0:16:58.440 area that might be near you and a similar soil type 0:16:58.469 --> 0:17:01.889 for your moisture readings, but be looking at a site 0:17:01.950 --> 0:17:05.190 in a different location for more of the pasture information 0:17:05.279 --> 0:17:06.840 and the pasture types. 0:17:06.930 --> 0:17:09.930 Yes, that's right. And I think ultimately the end game 0:17:09.930 --> 0:17:11.580 would be to get to a point where you can 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:14.820 toggle as a user where you think you sit and 0:17:14.820 --> 0:17:20.428 the pasture types that you've got there. However, adapting CSIRO's grass- 0:17:20.429 --> 0:17:23.519 grown modeling is a taxing task. We're I think happy, 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:25.978 and I say we, I'm no longer on that committee, 0:17:25.980 --> 0:17:29.520 but very proud to be where we are. But there's 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:33.840 the group's ambitious and wants to keep moving forward with 0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:34.650 this as a tool. 0:17:34.770 --> 0:17:37.589 It's probably now is as good as time to plug 0:17:37.590 --> 0:17:41.250 our involvement as well. Central West Local Land Services is 0:17:41.250 --> 0:17:44.430 actually rolling this out as well in our region. We'll 0:17:44.430 --> 0:17:47.310 be one of those probably four or five sites of 0:17:47.310 --> 0:17:51.059 those 100 new ones that you. Yeah, I guess for 0:17:51.059 --> 0:17:53.700 producers out there that might want to be involved, probably 0:17:53.700 --> 0:17:57.629 reach out to myself and yeah, my details will be 0:17:57.630 --> 0:18:00.449 in the show notes. But how do you use it 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:02.790 actually in your own business? Can you maybe give me 0:18:02.790 --> 0:18:05.879 an example of a time that you've used the Farming Forecaster? 0:18:06.780 --> 0:18:10.498 I actually use it the most when I'm in my, 0:18:10.500 --> 0:18:13.289 not so much the breeding part of my system, but 0:18:13.290 --> 0:18:16.950 in the fodder cropping side of things with trying to 0:18:17.219 --> 0:18:21.629 balance the number of lambs or cattle on hand versing any 0:18:21.630 --> 0:18:25.140 with bred versus any trading opportunity that might present itself. 0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:29.460 And so in a year like this where we feel 0:18:29.460 --> 0:18:33.148 like there may be potentially opportunities in trading cattle. And 0:18:33.150 --> 0:18:35.459 we go, " Oh, we've got wheat crops up where we've 0:18:35.459 --> 0:18:37.950 got the feed." And you go jump on Farming Forecaster 0:18:38.670 --> 0:18:41.609 and go, "Whoa, your soil moisture is low. The actually outlook for winter 0:18:41.609 --> 0:18:44.880 is not great. Perhaps you won't be able to do 0:18:44.880 --> 0:18:47.069 the job that you're thinking you can do at this 0:18:47.070 --> 0:18:49.319 point in time come two months in the heart of 0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:52.859 winter." I tend to use it mainly for that in 0:18:52.859 --> 0:18:56.130 terms of projecting where my fodder supply will be. And 0:18:56.130 --> 0:18:59.940 also that's likewise for summer lambs, where spring lambs, summer 0:18:59.940 --> 0:19:03.779 wean onto crops at the start of summer. It gives 0:19:03.780 --> 0:19:06.779 you an indication of from this starting point how long 0:19:07.109 --> 0:19:08.908 with the soil moisture we've got, that lucerne's going to 0:19:08.910 --> 0:19:11.909 be productive and grow X amount of kilograms. You can 0:19:11.910 --> 0:19:16.080 start calculating whether you are understocked for lambs and whether 0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:18.780 there's a trade opportunity, you're okay or you're going to 0:19:18.780 --> 0:19:20.550 have to start supplementing sooner than you thought. 0:19:21.599 --> 0:19:24.480 Where's your nearest site? How far away is it from 0:19:24.480 --> 0:19:25.080 your place? 0:19:25.740 --> 0:19:28.918 I've actually got a virtual site, well, which is a farm that 0:19:28.920 --> 0:19:33.418 we're currently moving off literally nearly on this farm. But 0:19:33.419 --> 0:19:37.800 our main farm, we've got one within five kilometers. Actually we've 0:19:37.800 --> 0:19:40.710 got three within probably five to 10 kilometers of our 0:19:40.770 --> 0:19:44.190 main farm. And our southern block, we've actually got one 0:19:44.490 --> 0:19:47.428 on the farm next door, highly accurate to our farm 0:19:47.430 --> 0:19:51.600 out there. We're a bit spoiled for choice. I mean 0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:55.080 the MFS group and the Farming Forecaster group really tried 0:19:55.080 --> 0:19:59.340 to spread the probes around so it benefited a lot 0:19:59.340 --> 0:20:03.959 of the initial membership base but also had enough geographic 0:20:04.020 --> 0:20:06.630 and rainfall and soil type spread. 0:20:06.930 --> 0:20:09.450 I think the central west region is probably a little 0:20:09.450 --> 0:20:12.030 bit bigger than southeast, so ours might be a little 0:20:12.030 --> 0:20:14.970 bit further spread out. But yeah, hopefully that might be 0:20:14.970 --> 0:20:19.320 the aim one day for us. Does the Monaro farming 0:20:19.320 --> 0:20:23.218 systems or do you have a separate Farming Forecaster group 0:20:23.219 --> 0:20:26.730 that you maybe mentioned that get together regularly? Or is 0:20:26.730 --> 0:20:30.240 it you just operate independently with this information? 0:20:30.330 --> 0:20:33.719 The Farming Forecaster site is public access. Anyone can log 0:20:33.719 --> 0:20:36.030 on and access it and look at the sites and look at the 0:20:36.030 --> 0:20:42.089 outputs. We generally have quarterly field days with our members 0:20:42.090 --> 0:20:45.270 and we use it to support either some of the 0:20:45.270 --> 0:20:49.020 presentations or discussions. Or if we think the season is 0:20:49.020 --> 0:20:52.799 throwing up things that are challenging. We will go into 0:20:52.800 --> 0:20:55.379 detail on some sites and look at where are we 0:20:55.380 --> 0:20:57.869 at, what would be some of the solutions. And again, 0:20:57.869 --> 0:21:00.630 this could be positive, a very big summer or spring. 0:21:00.690 --> 0:21:03.570 And we might run the figures on performing a steer 0:21:03.570 --> 0:21:07.590 trade and the risk involved in that. Or looking at 0:21:07.590 --> 0:21:11.309 the management of potential drought situations emerging and what would 0:21:11.309 --> 0:21:14.850 be the management considerations to do with that. And so 0:21:14.850 --> 0:21:17.999 we look at adapt... Using that on a quarterly basis 0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:20.460 in a face- to- face. Manner it's otherwise, yeah, for 0:21:20.460 --> 0:21:22.140 everyone to access as they wish. 0:21:22.350 --> 0:21:24.990 Mate, we might just move on to the next topic 0:21:25.140 --> 0:21:27.990 I had in mind, which I know the Monaro in 0:21:28.260 --> 0:21:31.589 recent years has had its fair share of natural disasters. 0:21:32.160 --> 0:21:36.539 How has your business fared during those times, talking droughts 0:21:36.540 --> 0:21:37.350 and fires? 0:21:37.470 --> 0:21:40.950 My farming career's been quite funny. I mean I've been 0:21:40.950 --> 0:21:45.479 farming for 12 years now. I'm previously an accountant. And I 0:21:45.780 --> 0:21:49.320 happened to come back at the end of the 2010, 2011 0:21:49.320 --> 0:21:51.509 when we just came out of a major drought. I 0:21:51.509 --> 0:21:55.290 came back to phenomenally good run of seasons up to about 2016, 0:21:55.410 --> 0:22:00.240 2017 and an upward inflection on commodity prices. And I 0:22:00.240 --> 0:22:04.800 was supremely lucky to experience that. And then, I guess 0:22:05.190 --> 0:22:08.520 I was put on the belly I guess in, it got 0:22:08.520 --> 0:22:15.360 dry 2017, 2018 on the Monaro and very bad in 2019, 2020. And 0:22:15.780 --> 0:22:19.290 that was a tough period without a doubt. And I 0:22:19.290 --> 0:22:23.340 mean resilience, while it's a phrase that it's thrown around 0:22:23.340 --> 0:22:26.309 a lot, it's just part of organizations' names in terms 0:22:26.309 --> 0:22:30.720 of drought, resilience got tested I think for everyone, but 0:22:30.990 --> 0:22:36.030 certainly for me during that little period. And even probably 0:22:36.330 --> 0:22:42.238 this last spring, summer was probably as equally tough if 0:22:42.240 --> 0:22:45.719 not shorter and with less external pressures just with the 0:22:45.719 --> 0:22:49.320 capitulation on sheep prices and the fear of God of 0:22:49.380 --> 0:22:52.320 that putting you with feeding them, feeding them when they're 0:22:52.320 --> 0:22:56.700 not worth anything were two very difficult periods for myself. 0:22:56.730 --> 0:22:59.369 I mean taking for granted the run that I had 0:22:59.369 --> 0:23:01.290 to begin with, we did have a few challenges within 0:23:01.290 --> 0:23:03.690 that good period. We had foot rot and a number 0:23:03.690 --> 0:23:05.789