1 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:06,840 S1: On Thursday, February 26th, mediators from the US and Iran 2 00:00:06,880 --> 00:00:10,520 S1: met in the Swiss city of Geneva. The two sides 3 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:15,280 S1: were meeting for nuclear talks again. There had been previous 4 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:19,560 S1: talks in Oman on February 6th, but those with longer 5 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:23,760 S1: memories might recall multiple rounds of talks in the past. 6 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:29,280 S1: Going into the talks, Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian projected an 7 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:37,040 S1: optimistic figure. Speaking on state television, he said. We see 8 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:41,040 S1: a favorable outlook for the negotiations. Mr. Araqchi will be 9 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:44,400 S1: in Geneva tomorrow. We are continuing the process under the 10 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,000 S1: guidance of the Supreme Leader so that we can move 11 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,959 S1: beyond this neither war nor peace situation, which will make 12 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:53,559 S1: it easier for us to remove the obstacles of the 13 00:00:53,560 --> 00:01:02,220 S1: Iranian economy. Rock. Coming out of the meeting, Iran's Foreign 14 00:01:02,220 --> 00:01:06,500 S1: Minister Abbas Araqchi felt that the meeting had been productive, 15 00:01:06,740 --> 00:01:11,220 S1: telling reporters we have made very good progress and entered 16 00:01:11,220 --> 00:01:14,780 S1: into the elements of an agreement very seriously, both in 17 00:01:14,780 --> 00:01:19,580 S1: the nuclear field and in the sanctions field. US President 18 00:01:19,580 --> 00:01:23,940 S1: Donald Trump was less pleased with the progress, telling reporters 19 00:01:23,940 --> 00:01:25,420 S1: on February 27th. 20 00:01:25,860 --> 00:01:28,780 S2: I'm not happy with the fact that they're not willing 21 00:01:28,819 --> 00:01:30,860 S2: to give us what we have to have. So I'm 22 00:01:30,900 --> 00:01:33,820 S2: not thrilled with that. We'll see what happens. We're talking later. 23 00:01:34,980 --> 00:01:37,700 S2: We'll we'll have some additional talks today. 24 00:01:49,060 --> 00:01:53,500 S1: One day later, in conjunction with Israel, the US launched 25 00:01:53,500 --> 00:01:58,790 S1: massive and sweeping strikes across the country. Missiles rained down 26 00:01:58,790 --> 00:02:03,070 S1: across the capital as planes dropped bombs hitting military sites 27 00:02:03,070 --> 00:02:07,830 S1: and launchers. In the opening hours of the attack, President 28 00:02:07,870 --> 00:02:09,790 S1: Trump addressed the nation. 29 00:02:10,550 --> 00:02:14,470 S2: The United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing 30 00:02:14,510 --> 00:02:20,550 S2: operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening 31 00:02:20,590 --> 00:02:25,590 S2: America and our core national security interests. We are going 32 00:02:25,590 --> 00:02:29,910 S2: to destroy their missiles and raise their missile industry to 33 00:02:29,910 --> 00:02:34,709 S2: the ground. It will be totally again obliterated. 34 00:02:34,910 --> 00:02:37,990 S1: On the first day, one of the bombs dropped on 35 00:02:38,030 --> 00:02:44,750 S1: Tehran hit the offices of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 36 00:02:46,110 --> 00:02:50,269 S1: On March 1st, his death was confirmed by a visibly 37 00:02:50,270 --> 00:02:52,989 S1: upset anchor on state news. 38 00:02:56,530 --> 00:03:03,770 S3: Islam Hazrat Imam Khomeini. Said that. 39 00:03:07,570 --> 00:03:10,850 S1: Iran is in upheaval and the future is still to 40 00:03:10,850 --> 00:03:15,810 S1: be decided. According to President Trump's speech of February 28th, 41 00:03:16,250 --> 00:03:19,089 S1: this is the time for the Iranian people. 42 00:03:19,370 --> 00:03:23,529 S2: Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. 43 00:03:23,530 --> 00:03:27,250 S2: Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take 44 00:03:27,250 --> 00:03:31,010 S2: over your government. It will be yours to take. This 45 00:03:31,010 --> 00:03:35,650 S2: will be probably your only chance for generations. 46 00:03:36,050 --> 00:03:38,930 S1: This week on the new Arab Voice, who is the 47 00:03:38,930 --> 00:03:43,090 S1: opposition in Iran that could replace the regime? And what 48 00:03:43,090 --> 00:03:47,170 S1: does the US want from its military actions? My name 49 00:03:47,170 --> 00:03:50,930 S1: is Hugo Goodridge and you're listening to the New Arab Voice. 50 00:04:04,750 --> 00:04:08,350 S1: The situation in Iran and indeed across the Middle East 51 00:04:08,590 --> 00:04:13,310 S1: is in flux. Things are changing quickly. There is still 52 00:04:13,310 --> 00:04:16,870 S1: a lot we don't know. We are unsure how long 53 00:04:16,870 --> 00:04:20,710 S1: this will last. When it does end, we don't know 54 00:04:20,710 --> 00:04:24,390 S1: who will be left. The bombing campaign has targeted military 55 00:04:24,390 --> 00:04:29,469 S1: infrastructure in places like Kermanshah and Tabriz and Iranian naval 56 00:04:29,470 --> 00:04:33,229 S1: facilities in Konarak. There have also been multiple strikes in 57 00:04:33,230 --> 00:04:38,270 S1: Tehran targeting the Ministry of Intelligence and the presidential offices. 58 00:04:39,110 --> 00:04:42,710 S1: Not everything that has been hit has been military. Homes 59 00:04:42,710 --> 00:04:46,670 S1: and businesses have also been struck. Footage has revealed that 60 00:04:46,670 --> 00:04:49,550 S1: a girls school in the southern city of Minab has 61 00:04:49,550 --> 00:04:52,990 S1: also been struck. On Sunday, March 1st, the head of 62 00:04:53,170 --> 00:04:56,610 S1: public relations at the Ministry of Health, claimed that about 63 00:04:56,610 --> 00:05:02,570 S1: 180 young children had been killed. The nature of the 64 00:05:02,570 --> 00:05:08,089 S1: strike is unclear, but of course represents a shocking development. 65 00:05:09,089 --> 00:05:13,610 S1: At the time of writing, 787 people are reported to 66 00:05:13,650 --> 00:05:17,690 S1: have been killed, although that number will inevitably be higher 67 00:05:18,050 --> 00:05:21,409 S1: by the time you listen to this. We've also seen 68 00:05:21,410 --> 00:05:25,650 S1: a series of targeted assassinations, similar to what was seen 69 00:05:25,690 --> 00:05:29,170 S1: during the 12 Day War back in June of 2025. 70 00:05:29,850 --> 00:05:32,130 S1: Among the high profile names to have been killed was 71 00:05:32,410 --> 00:05:36,450 S1: Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran's Defense Council and a 72 00:05:36,450 --> 00:05:40,250 S1: close adviser to Supreme Leader Khamenei. Until recently, he had 73 00:05:40,250 --> 00:05:46,490 S1: been overseeing the negotiations between the US and Iran. Abdolrahim Mousavi, 74 00:05:46,650 --> 00:05:49,849 S1: the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces and the 75 00:05:49,850 --> 00:05:53,420 S1: former commander in chief of the Iranian army also killed, 76 00:05:53,860 --> 00:05:59,380 S1: as was Aziz Nasirzadeh, the Minister of Defence. Mohammad Pakpour, 77 00:05:59,700 --> 00:06:03,060 S1: the commander in chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 78 00:06:03,180 --> 00:06:09,179 S1: or IRGC, assassinated, and there were others. This list was 79 00:06:09,180 --> 00:06:12,020 S1: correct at the time of writing, but given the way 80 00:06:12,020 --> 00:06:15,299 S1: things are moving, by the time you hear this, other 81 00:06:15,300 --> 00:06:19,220 S1: names would have likely been added. Of course, the most 82 00:06:19,220 --> 00:06:24,300 S1: consequential name by far was Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He 83 00:06:24,300 --> 00:06:27,219 S1: had led the country as the highest ranking religious figure 84 00:06:27,220 --> 00:06:32,739 S1: in Iran's theocracy since 1989. As leader and before under 85 00:06:32,740 --> 00:06:36,260 S1: Supreme Leader Khamenei, he oversaw some of the most significant 86 00:06:36,260 --> 00:06:39,820 S1: events and changes in the country. The eight year long 87 00:06:39,820 --> 00:06:43,900 S1: war against Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the original nuclear deal, 88 00:06:43,940 --> 00:06:47,420 S1: the JCPoA. And he was instrumental in the creation of 89 00:06:47,420 --> 00:06:52,360 S1: the axis of resistance, bringing together Hezbollah, former Syrian President 90 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:56,440 S1: Bashar al Assad, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas and the 91 00:06:56,440 --> 00:07:01,600 S1: Shia militias in Iraq. But also, as leader, Khamenei presided 92 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:08,040 S1: over brutal crackdowns against protesting Iranians, most notably in 2009, 93 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:13,640 S1: 2017 and 19. The Women Lie freedom movement of 2022, 94 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:16,920 S1: which he blamed on foreign powers. And right up until 95 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:23,800 S1: the protests of December 2025 and January 2026. During these crackdowns, 96 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:28,120 S1: hundreds of thousands were jailed and tens of thousands were killed. 97 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,080 S1: A supreme leader of Iran, his power and influence was 98 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:36,520 S1: felt across the country and the wider Middle East. The 99 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:40,720 S1: killing of Ayatollah Khamenei is a genuine turning point in 100 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:50,020 S1: the history of Iran and the region. On Friday afternoon, 101 00:07:50,020 --> 00:07:54,780 S1: February 27th, I spoke with Charles Dunne, a non-resident fellow 102 00:07:54,780 --> 00:07:58,860 S1: at the Arab Center, Washington, DC, and adjunct professor at 103 00:07:58,860 --> 00:08:03,580 S1: the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. 104 00:08:04,380 --> 00:08:07,700 S1: We discussed a number of issues, including what the US 105 00:08:07,700 --> 00:08:10,940 S1: and Iran would be wanting from the nuclear talks, how 106 00:08:10,940 --> 00:08:14,260 S1: the Trump administration views the regime in Iran, and whether 107 00:08:14,260 --> 00:08:18,380 S1: or not the US would be launching strikes against Iran. 108 00:08:19,100 --> 00:08:22,540 S1: Less than 24 hours later, much of what we spoke 109 00:08:22,540 --> 00:08:27,860 S1: about paled into insignificance. It was clear that the US 110 00:08:27,860 --> 00:08:31,900 S1: was done negotiating the nuclear issue, and given the abrupt 111 00:08:31,900 --> 00:08:35,740 S1: about turn from negotiations to war, it appears as if 112 00:08:35,740 --> 00:08:40,220 S1: this had been planned for a long time. Very kindly, 113 00:08:40,260 --> 00:08:43,020 S1: Charles agreed to sit down with me again on Monday 114 00:08:43,020 --> 00:08:47,400 S1: afternoon to try and make some sense of what happened 115 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:51,839 S1: over the weekend. We spoke on Friday. Today is Monday. 116 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:56,199 S1: Monday is not like Friday. Um, I think it's fair 117 00:08:56,200 --> 00:09:01,040 S1: to say things are very different, uh, than when we 118 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:04,600 S1: previously spoke. One of the things that, you know, I've 119 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:08,360 S1: been sort of reading lots and watching lots over the 120 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:12,200 S1: weekend and listening to lots of things, and the general 121 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:18,840 S1: consensus of everybody is, I don't know, uh, maybe. Who knows? 122 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:25,200 S1: That's the sort of overall feeling is everyone's a little 123 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:31,559 S1: unsure about what's exactly going to happen. Nevertheless, we will 124 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:36,359 S1: do our best with the start of this us-israeli military operation. 125 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:41,040 S1: President Trump pretty explicitly said this is about regime change. 126 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:45,240 S1: You know, he's on he he truthed on his, uh, 127 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:52,489 S1: his platform. This is effectively regime change. What is regime change? 128 00:09:52,530 --> 00:09:55,970 S1: Do we think in the eyes of Donald Trump? Because 129 00:09:55,970 --> 00:10:00,449 S1: I think we spoke on Friday about Venezuela. They they 130 00:10:00,450 --> 00:10:04,410 S1: removed Maduro but left everything else. We've now seen the 131 00:10:04,410 --> 00:10:08,689 S1: removal of Ayatollah Khamenei. Is that regime change, do we think, 132 00:10:08,690 --> 00:10:09,650 S1: in the eyes of Trump? 133 00:10:10,290 --> 00:10:14,729 S4: Well, I don't think that's regime change. Um, I think 134 00:10:15,130 --> 00:10:18,170 S4: President Trump has kind of a one off view of 135 00:10:18,170 --> 00:10:23,090 S4: these situations. We make a big dramatic splash with military action, 136 00:10:23,090 --> 00:10:25,689 S4: and we leave everybody else to sort it out. In 137 00:10:25,690 --> 00:10:29,010 S4: this case, the Iranian people who he's called on to 138 00:10:30,050 --> 00:10:33,570 S4: essentially take over the government. You won't have another chance 139 00:10:33,570 --> 00:10:37,930 S4: for generations, he said. And that's a quote. How they're 140 00:10:37,929 --> 00:10:42,450 S4: going to do that is another question. And I really 141 00:10:42,450 --> 00:10:45,670 S4: do believe that the people with the most weapons are 142 00:10:45,670 --> 00:10:48,710 S4: in the best position to take over the government. In 143 00:10:48,710 --> 00:10:52,230 S4: this case, that would be the IRA, the Iranian Revolutionary 144 00:10:52,230 --> 00:10:56,910 S4: Guards and the people who helped police the streets in 145 00:10:56,910 --> 00:11:03,150 S4: revolutionary times, the Basij militia. Okay, um, I don't see 146 00:11:03,190 --> 00:11:09,150 S4: a sudden democratic uprising overwhelming what's left of the regime 147 00:11:09,150 --> 00:11:11,710 S4: and what's left of the regime, by the way, is 148 00:11:11,710 --> 00:11:18,350 S4: pretty substantial. Um, in terms of organization, arms, money, uh, 149 00:11:18,350 --> 00:11:22,190 S4: and political will. Uh, I don't believe that killing a 150 00:11:22,190 --> 00:11:24,150 S4: few people at the top of the regime is actually 151 00:11:24,150 --> 00:11:27,710 S4: going to fundamentally change Iran, but we're just going to 152 00:11:27,710 --> 00:11:29,670 S4: have to see. Everything is up in the air, as 153 00:11:29,670 --> 00:11:30,150 S4: you said. 154 00:11:31,190 --> 00:11:35,590 S1: Trump would be content with, you know, the IRGC and 155 00:11:35,590 --> 00:11:38,229 S1: the Basij militias taking control. 156 00:11:38,990 --> 00:11:42,770 S4: I think it would be content with that if he's 157 00:11:42,770 --> 00:11:47,970 S4: now looking at a weakened regime with dramatically scaled down 158 00:11:47,970 --> 00:11:52,370 S4: ambitions for regional influence, and one that he could work 159 00:11:52,370 --> 00:11:55,850 S4: with in terms of deals, whether they're economic deals, this 160 00:11:55,850 --> 00:12:00,130 S4: is something that the Iranians had apparently offered in negotiations 161 00:12:00,130 --> 00:12:03,930 S4: before the United States and Israel struck, which is, um, 162 00:12:04,850 --> 00:12:08,370 S4: economic deals, mining deals, uh, and so on. That would 163 00:12:08,370 --> 00:12:10,730 S4: be dependent, of course, on lifting some of the sanctions 164 00:12:10,730 --> 00:12:14,290 S4: at least. I think Trump would be would be happy 165 00:12:14,290 --> 00:12:19,130 S4: with that. There is nothing in his foreign policy or 166 00:12:19,530 --> 00:12:23,329 S4: in his new national security strategy that suggests he's truly 167 00:12:23,330 --> 00:12:27,090 S4: interested in representative government or democracy, and he's kind of 168 00:12:27,130 --> 00:12:31,010 S4: made that clear, uh, in public statements, uh, and in 169 00:12:31,050 --> 00:12:36,210 S4: his actions. But a regime that he can work with, 170 00:12:36,690 --> 00:12:40,449 S4: do deals with that would be ideal and one that 171 00:12:40,450 --> 00:12:45,300 S4: doesn't threaten US interests or Israeli interests in the region. 172 00:12:46,460 --> 00:12:51,060 S1: The dealmaker in chief at it again. Indeed. Let's say 173 00:12:51,460 --> 00:12:56,260 S1: we understand that to be what Trump wants. Uh, militarily speaking, 174 00:12:56,260 --> 00:13:00,820 S1: I think, you know, Centcom would have different objectives, obviously, 175 00:13:00,820 --> 00:13:05,300 S1: to to ultimately to what Donald Trump wants. Uh, you know, 176 00:13:05,700 --> 00:13:09,020 S1: what do we think those objectives are for the US military? 177 00:13:09,460 --> 00:13:12,220 S1: And from what we've seen over the weekend, we think 178 00:13:12,220 --> 00:13:13,939 S1: they've been, you know, successful. 179 00:13:15,100 --> 00:13:17,780 S4: Right. Well, I mean, the Centcom objectives were spelled out 180 00:13:17,780 --> 00:13:20,780 S4: in a statement by Centcom itself, which was very much 181 00:13:20,780 --> 00:13:24,180 S4: focused on the Iranian nuclear program and the ballistic missile 182 00:13:24,179 --> 00:13:28,980 S4: program and certain um, military targets, including the IRGC and 183 00:13:28,980 --> 00:13:32,220 S4: so on. So they seem to have a more limited objective. 184 00:13:32,260 --> 00:13:36,060 S4: They didn't speak at all about we're changing the regime 185 00:13:36,260 --> 00:13:41,319 S4: as the president has. Um, So I don't think that 186 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:44,920 S4: amounts to a rift in the US government. Thinking about this. 187 00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:47,240 S4: Centcom is going to do what it's what it's told 188 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:49,560 S4: to do. One thing it hasn't been told to do, 189 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:55,920 S4: of course, is send hundreds of thousands of troops into 190 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:59,480 S4: Iran to secure an actual regime change. And that, I 191 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:05,800 S4: don't believe, is on anybody's menu in Washington at this point. Um, but, um, 192 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:11,719 S4: the president has also spoken about, um, these attacks taking 193 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:16,640 S4: another few weeks. Um, I don't know, because we don't 194 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:21,200 S4: have that much information on how many targets are left to, uh, hit. 195 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:24,400 S4: I think there are probably a few that haven't been struck. 196 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,359 S4: If you're really trying to destroy the Iranian nuclear program. 197 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:32,000 S4: And they're very hard targets. Uh, like the nuclear facility 198 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:37,360 S4: at Pickaxe Mountain, one mile north of the destroyed Natanz facility, 199 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:42,380 S4: which a lot of agencies think is the place where 200 00:14:42,380 --> 00:14:46,420 S4: extra nuclear material has been housed and it's deeply buried. 201 00:14:46,740 --> 00:14:49,100 S4: I haven't seen anything indicating that that is on the 202 00:14:49,100 --> 00:14:53,740 S4: target list. So there are big questions about, you know, what, 203 00:14:53,900 --> 00:14:55,820 S4: what is going to come next. I mean, Trump is 204 00:14:55,820 --> 00:14:59,700 S4: very been very clear about Iran will not have a 205 00:14:59,700 --> 00:15:04,940 S4: nuclear weapon. Mm. Um, but, you know, beyond even including that, 206 00:15:04,940 --> 00:15:08,780 S4: let me put it this way. Even including that, has 207 00:15:08,780 --> 00:15:14,660 S4: this objective been achieved? And if there are any further objectives, 208 00:15:14,660 --> 00:15:17,580 S4: how are you going to go about it. Mm. And 209 00:15:17,660 --> 00:15:19,380 S4: that I think is a big question right now. 210 00:15:19,940 --> 00:15:23,700 S1: I heard somebody describe it saying, you know, considering that 211 00:15:23,700 --> 00:15:27,220 S1: our no. US troops on the ground currently and it 212 00:15:27,220 --> 00:15:30,940 S1: looks very unlikely there will be, it will effectively end 213 00:15:30,940 --> 00:15:35,060 S1: up as a war between whose ammo runs out first, 214 00:15:35,420 --> 00:15:39,680 S1: you know, between, you know, US missiles and, and drone 215 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:44,720 S1: attacks and the ability of the Iranians to fire their 216 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,480 S1: cruise missiles across the region and maybe shoot down planes 217 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,680 S1: and things. It seems like our most best estimate of 218 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:53,240 S1: of where this conflict is going is just, you know, 219 00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:58,480 S1: who can has the munitions to hold out for the longest. Uh, yeah. 220 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:00,440 S1: On that. I would probably give it to the Americans. 221 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:03,960 S1: I mean, ultimately, the biggest news over the weekend was 222 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:10,720 S1: the death of the Ayatollah. Were you surprised, firstly, that 223 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,280 S1: that they did go for this? I mean, it seems 224 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:16,880 S1: like they had CIA intelligence, by all accounts, to find 225 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:19,880 S1: out where he is. And he seemed very accurate because 226 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,920 S1: he is gone now. And it sort of then begs 227 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,880 S1: the question, you know, Iran's a big country there in 228 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,960 S1: the middle of a war. Who's in charge now? 229 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,760 S4: Well, I would say, first of all, yes, I was 230 00:16:34,850 --> 00:16:38,290 S4: surprised that they went so openly after regime targets in 231 00:16:38,290 --> 00:16:42,010 S4: in the past, US and Israel have definitely targeted, um, 232 00:16:42,050 --> 00:16:46,370 S4: you know, nuclear scientists, military officials, including in the IRGC 233 00:16:46,370 --> 00:16:49,730 S4: and so on. And some of those targets, uh, they 234 00:16:49,770 --> 00:16:52,970 S4: hit again, uh, including the commander of the IRGC who 235 00:16:52,970 --> 00:16:57,890 S4: was also killed in the same strike, apparently, that killed Khamenei. Um, 236 00:16:57,930 --> 00:17:00,330 S4: I was a little surprised that they went so openly 237 00:17:00,330 --> 00:17:10,170 S4: after the head of the regime, particularly because it's like, again, you, 238 00:17:10,210 --> 00:17:13,530 S4: you you take out the head of the regime, you 239 00:17:13,570 --> 00:17:19,169 S4: hope to do what, um, impose a power struggle that 240 00:17:19,170 --> 00:17:24,250 S4: will leave the country much weaker. Um, uh, encourage a 241 00:17:24,250 --> 00:17:28,130 S4: civilian uprising that will take over and, you know, bring 242 00:17:28,130 --> 00:17:32,650 S4: representative government, um, to Iran. It's, you know, it's it's 243 00:17:32,650 --> 00:17:37,510 S4: very unclear. So, you know, I do think that we're 244 00:17:37,510 --> 00:17:40,550 S4: in a situation now where we've created a certain amount 245 00:17:40,550 --> 00:17:44,190 S4: of chaos, and the United States, at least, is washing 246 00:17:44,190 --> 00:17:49,430 S4: its hands of what comes next, are really trying emphatically 247 00:17:49,910 --> 00:17:55,390 S4: to influence the outcome. The Iranian system worked in the 248 00:17:55,390 --> 00:18:00,830 S4: sense that they appointed a leadership council, including a senior cleric. 249 00:18:01,190 --> 00:18:04,910 S4: I believe the president of Iran and 1 or 2 250 00:18:04,950 --> 00:18:09,070 S4: other officials, uh, who will try to decide the future 251 00:18:09,070 --> 00:18:12,310 S4: of the country, at least in the very short term. Um, 252 00:18:12,390 --> 00:18:16,830 S4: that's who's in charge right now. Technically speaking, I would 253 00:18:16,830 --> 00:18:20,270 S4: anticipate that the longer this goes on, the greater the 254 00:18:20,270 --> 00:18:24,110 S4: power of the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards will become, 255 00:18:24,150 --> 00:18:27,070 S4: and the more influential they will become, because they really 256 00:18:27,070 --> 00:18:32,170 S4: are the kingmakers, uh, in terms of deciding who they 257 00:18:32,170 --> 00:18:35,130 S4: will support and how they will support them because they 258 00:18:35,130 --> 00:18:38,090 S4: have shown, you know, a massive ability to help control 259 00:18:38,090 --> 00:18:41,330 S4: the Iranian population. Uh, so that's that's going to be 260 00:18:41,369 --> 00:18:44,610 S4: the key thing. There might be a power struggle, but 261 00:18:44,609 --> 00:18:46,649 S4: I think the IRGC will mediate it. 262 00:18:47,010 --> 00:18:52,850 S1: In response to Us-israeli attacks. Uh, predictably, Iran has started 263 00:18:52,890 --> 00:18:56,690 S1: firing off missiles around the region, particularly towards the Gulf. 264 00:18:57,330 --> 00:19:05,170 S1: These have obviously impacted US allies who seem pretty miffed 265 00:19:05,730 --> 00:19:08,730 S1: about what is going on. Frankly, I think particularly as 266 00:19:08,730 --> 00:19:13,890 S1: you know, these Iranian missiles have hit civilian targets. So 267 00:19:14,330 --> 00:19:17,609 S1: how supportive do we think the region is? I think 268 00:19:17,650 --> 00:19:22,210 S1: maybe particularly the Gulf is of Donald Trump's actions. Do 269 00:19:22,210 --> 00:19:25,490 S1: we think maybe also that the the Gulf has maybe 270 00:19:25,530 --> 00:19:27,250 S1: been kept out of the loop and caught a bit 271 00:19:27,250 --> 00:19:30,670 S1: off guard by this? We were only talking on Friday 272 00:19:30,670 --> 00:19:37,149 S1: about deals and talks and avoiding action. And two days later, 273 00:19:37,630 --> 00:19:39,190 S1: everything's different. So. 274 00:19:40,030 --> 00:19:45,470 S4: Well, I think that the Gulf was largely kept off 275 00:19:45,510 --> 00:19:49,909 S4: guard and out of the loop in the certainly the 276 00:19:49,910 --> 00:19:53,270 S4: details of the military planning and the scope of the operation. 277 00:19:53,630 --> 00:19:58,350 S4: Saudi Arabia apparently played a double game, according to reports 278 00:19:58,350 --> 00:20:03,350 S4: that I've seen, uh, in the press here. Um, they were, 279 00:20:03,350 --> 00:20:08,790 S4: on the one hand, kind of urging Washington to take 280 00:20:08,830 --> 00:20:12,270 S4: a harder line and possibly military action. But at the 281 00:20:12,270 --> 00:20:16,869 S4: same time, we're urging caution and following through on, uh, 282 00:20:16,910 --> 00:20:20,710 S4: the negotiations that were going on, uh, the rest of 283 00:20:20,710 --> 00:20:25,910 S4: the Gulf states are, um, I think, somewhat shocked about 284 00:20:25,910 --> 00:20:31,159 S4: what actually happened in terms of the Iranian reaction and 285 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,040 S4: some of the leaders of the Gulf, uh, especially the 286 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:37,800 S4: foreign ministers have warned Iran, uh, not to take it 287 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:41,080 S4: too far, because then the Gulf states themselves, who have 288 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,720 S4: been heavily armed by the United States military, uh, might 289 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:50,200 S4: take a more active role in what's going on right now. Um, 290 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:55,200 S4: I would have to describe their mood as basically one of. 291 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,560 S4: We don't know. We don't know what is coming next. 292 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,760 S4: We don't know what our role is going to be. 293 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,080 S4: We have to throw in with the United States because 294 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:07,800 S4: it's made this decision and it's doing this, and we're 295 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:12,840 S4: their allies. But we are very nervous about what the 296 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,000 S4: final outcome is going to be and how much instability 297 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,879 S4: is going to be unleashed, uh, in the rest of 298 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:24,240 S4: the region. And forget about, you know, Iran launching more 299 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:29,620 S4: missiles or, or whatever. Terrorism is relatively inexpensive, and they've 300 00:21:29,619 --> 00:21:33,420 S4: demonstrated capacity for doing this and striking high value targets 301 00:21:33,420 --> 00:21:35,899 S4: when they do. Uh, and that, I think, is really 302 00:21:35,900 --> 00:21:38,220 S4: top of mind for a lot of the, uh, leadership 303 00:21:38,220 --> 00:21:38,940 S4: in the Gulf. 304 00:21:39,380 --> 00:21:41,820 S1: In terms of being caught off guard. Also, um, you know, 305 00:21:42,020 --> 00:21:50,619 S1: domestically speaking. Now, I'm, uh, no expert on US legislation, 306 00:21:50,940 --> 00:21:54,300 S1: but as I understand it, a US president is supposed 307 00:21:54,300 --> 00:21:57,220 S1: to go to Congress and the Senate if they want 308 00:21:57,220 --> 00:22:01,340 S1: to declare war. Right? I don't remember Donald Trump, uh, 309 00:22:01,340 --> 00:22:04,619 S1: doing that over the weekend. So are they going to 310 00:22:04,619 --> 00:22:07,620 S1: have anything? Have they sort of said, and think about this. 311 00:22:08,060 --> 00:22:10,340 S4: Now, the War Powers Act, which is supposed to govern 312 00:22:10,340 --> 00:22:14,340 S4: these things, has been more abundant for decades. Um, it 313 00:22:14,340 --> 00:22:18,419 S4: was passed in the wake of the Vietnam conflict to 314 00:22:18,420 --> 00:22:21,419 S4: give Congress some say in when the United States goes 315 00:22:21,420 --> 00:22:25,840 S4: to war and, uh, what it must do, uh, To 316 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:31,439 S4: end conflict. Um, uh, emotion in, I believe, the US 317 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:37,760 S4: House of Representatives to try to, uh, um, approve or 318 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:42,040 S4: disapprove action against Iran before the action actually took place 319 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:46,440 S4: just about a week ago, uh, was ultimately very closely 320 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,280 S4: but ultimately defeated in the House of Representatives. So the 321 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,280 S4: War Powers Act was not invoked, uh, in the case 322 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:56,000 S4: of Iran and President Trump, of course, um, you know, 323 00:22:56,000 --> 00:23:02,840 S4: conceives of having a very broad mandate, uh, to exercise 324 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:06,640 S4: executive power. And he believes that this war power is, uh, 325 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:13,000 S4: totally within his remit. Um, I think depending on how 326 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,639 S4: long this goes on, you will get more pushback from 327 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:20,760 S4: even Republican members of Congress, um, especially in the Senate, 328 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:25,250 S4: where you have people like Rand Paul, uh, who? don't 329 00:23:25,290 --> 00:23:31,290 S4: approve of these large scale destabilizing operations. Certainly in the 330 00:23:31,290 --> 00:23:34,530 S4: Middle East, but in other countries as well. Um, and 331 00:23:34,530 --> 00:23:39,090 S4: you'll get some blowback from President Trump's base, but they 332 00:23:39,090 --> 00:23:43,250 S4: have demonstrated a capacity to really get over anything, uh, 333 00:23:43,369 --> 00:23:47,490 S4: even things that are supposed to be, uh, red lines, um, 334 00:23:47,890 --> 00:23:54,050 S4: for them, uh, this is especially true of, uh, foreign adventurism, 335 00:23:54,050 --> 00:23:57,370 S4: foreign wars, uh, which President Trump has, you know, certainly 336 00:23:57,369 --> 00:24:01,050 S4: unleashed several of in just his, you know, year and whatever, 337 00:24:01,050 --> 00:24:04,330 S4: two months in office. Mhm. Um, so that's definitely something 338 00:24:04,330 --> 00:24:08,730 S4: to be watched. Um, it's relatively quiescent right here in Washington. 339 00:24:08,970 --> 00:24:13,850 S4: But I believe that the temperature will start to rise. Um, 340 00:24:14,490 --> 00:24:18,930 S4: if this, you know, continues and you see more military 341 00:24:18,930 --> 00:24:23,190 S4: engagements by Iran with the Gulf, Iran with Israel, um, 342 00:24:23,350 --> 00:24:24,710 S4: with other countries involved. 343 00:24:25,070 --> 00:24:28,070 S1: Once again, Charles, thank you very much for joining us. 344 00:24:28,630 --> 00:24:29,389 S4: You're welcome. 345 00:24:29,910 --> 00:24:32,950 S1: Maybe we'll have to talk again in another 72 hours 346 00:24:32,950 --> 00:24:35,550 S1: when everything's different once more, but who knows? 347 00:24:36,990 --> 00:24:37,869 S4: Exactly right. 348 00:24:49,470 --> 00:24:52,790 S1: While things on the ground are still developing and are 349 00:24:52,830 --> 00:24:57,830 S1: likely to change further, one thing is certain. With the 350 00:24:57,830 --> 00:25:01,909 S1: death of Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran is going to need a 351 00:25:01,910 --> 00:25:07,070 S1: new leader. There are a few possibilities. Firstly, the regime 352 00:25:07,070 --> 00:25:10,910 S1: could survive and a new theocratic leader is chosen. That 353 00:25:10,910 --> 00:25:16,310 S1: business is actually underway. A new interim leadership Council has 354 00:25:16,310 --> 00:25:23,369 S1: been announced, consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary chief Gholam-hossein 355 00:25:23,410 --> 00:25:29,689 S1: Mohseni and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, an Islamic scholar from the 356 00:25:29,690 --> 00:25:33,889 S1: Guardian Council. But a supreme leader needs to be chosen 357 00:25:33,890 --> 00:25:37,970 S1: by the Assembly of Experts of the leadership. It's a 358 00:25:38,010 --> 00:25:44,410 S1: long process of selection, vetting and voting. Currently, it's unclear 359 00:25:44,490 --> 00:25:49,090 S1: how such a process could take place in the current circumstances. 360 00:25:49,810 --> 00:25:53,410 S1: A second leadership option in Iran. We could see the 361 00:25:53,410 --> 00:25:57,250 S1: military take full control and the country is ruled by 362 00:25:57,290 --> 00:26:00,370 S1: a general or the like. Similar to what we saw 363 00:26:00,369 --> 00:26:04,930 S1: in Egypt when Sisi took control. Thirdly, someone from inside 364 00:26:04,930 --> 00:26:08,410 S1: the country could take power. An individual, perhaps from civil 365 00:26:08,410 --> 00:26:11,290 S1: society or a labor group who has an established base 366 00:26:11,290 --> 00:26:16,369 S1: of popularity. And finally, we could see an individual or 367 00:26:16,410 --> 00:26:21,030 S1: group of people from the Iranian diaspora currently living abroad 368 00:26:21,390 --> 00:26:25,590 S1: return and take control of the country. These are not 369 00:26:25,590 --> 00:26:28,950 S1: the only options, but they are some of the more 370 00:26:28,950 --> 00:26:32,990 S1: likely scenarios. Let's start with inside Iran. 371 00:26:33,310 --> 00:26:37,510 S5: But inside Iran, historically, the regime has gone out of 372 00:26:37,510 --> 00:26:40,230 S5: its way to make sure you don't have anything that 373 00:26:40,230 --> 00:26:42,949 S5: looks like a political party with an agenda and a 374 00:26:42,950 --> 00:26:44,830 S5: capacity to push through an agenda. 375 00:26:44,869 --> 00:26:48,550 S1: This is Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. 376 00:26:48,990 --> 00:26:52,510 S1: I spoke with Alex on Friday before the US and 377 00:26:52,510 --> 00:26:56,790 S1: Israel launched their military attacks and before the killing of Khamenei. 378 00:26:57,270 --> 00:27:00,310 S5: So party politics doesn't really exist in Islamic Republic. What 379 00:27:00,310 --> 00:27:05,110 S5: you have is networks of people usually clustered around individuals. 380 00:27:05,430 --> 00:27:08,390 S5: You know, the closest thing Iran came to a party 381 00:27:08,390 --> 00:27:12,350 S5: political system where you have the so-called hard line establishment 382 00:27:12,350 --> 00:27:16,350 S5: being confronted by some new group that emerged from within 383 00:27:16,350 --> 00:27:19,199 S5: the regime, but is slightly different. political agenda was the 384 00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:23,080 S5: so-called reform movement of the late 1990s. And somewhere into 385 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:28,000 S5: the 2000, uh, with Mohammad Khatami election in 1997. They 386 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,800 S5: succeeded briefly for a number of years. But the deep state, 387 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:36,800 S5: the hardliners, Khamenei himself, the Revolutionary Guards, they stifled them 388 00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:39,280 S5: to a point that they essentially became irrelevant. 389 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,960 S1: These reformist minded politicians still exist in Iran today. 390 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,480 S5: They haven't gone anywhere. They're still inside of Iran. Many 391 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:51,840 S5: of them are actually in the same Massoud government, but 392 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,520 S5: they're in the lower levels of the system, their rank 393 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,440 S5: and file of the regime. They're not the key decision makers. 394 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:01,560 S5: The question is, would they decide that this is the 395 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,040 S5: moment for them to actually speak up? Because for a 396 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,760 S5: number of years they haven't spoken up. If they do 397 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,960 S5: speak up, if they decide, for example, to rally around 398 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:13,800 S5: some new figure or an existing figure, someone like former 399 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:17,980 S5: President Rouhani, who has at times made a case for, 400 00:28:17,980 --> 00:28:20,899 S5: for example, the need for a referendum to decide the 401 00:28:20,900 --> 00:28:23,820 S5: politics of the place. Then you can see the beginning 402 00:28:23,820 --> 00:28:28,060 S5: of something that looks like organized opposition from within the country. 403 00:28:28,180 --> 00:28:32,700 S1: Currently, no one is stepping up and speaking out. It 404 00:28:32,700 --> 00:28:36,220 S1: would be a bold move and not one that is 405 00:28:36,220 --> 00:28:42,860 S1: free of risk. Even without Khamenei, the regime exists. He 406 00:28:42,860 --> 00:28:46,900 S1: was the head of the regime, but not the regime itself. 407 00:28:47,580 --> 00:28:50,060 S1: That is a far larger instrument. 408 00:28:50,820 --> 00:28:53,420 S5: It's very easy for the security forces to come and 409 00:28:53,420 --> 00:28:55,300 S5: pick you up and call you essentially a traitor and 410 00:28:55,300 --> 00:28:58,220 S5: take you away. So we haven't reached that point yet, 411 00:28:58,220 --> 00:29:02,180 S5: but there is absolutely no doubt that even within the regime, 412 00:29:02,180 --> 00:29:04,780 S5: you have plenty of folks who think this is a 413 00:29:05,180 --> 00:29:08,300 S5: lost cause. In many ways, the regime has lost its way. 414 00:29:08,700 --> 00:29:11,420 S1: There are a number of repressive regimes around the world, 415 00:29:11,420 --> 00:29:14,620 S1: but Iran is slightly unique in the fact that there 416 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:20,280 S1: is no official political opposition, not even a heavily repressed 417 00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:25,680 S1: and marginalized political opposition. There are those opposed to the regime, 418 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:30,600 S1: but they are not within an official opposition structure. This 419 00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:35,720 S1: means that effectively, there isn't any opposition with any genuine 420 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:41,360 S1: experience of running a government, repressive or not. There is 421 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:45,600 S1: a possibility that the next leaders of Iran could include 422 00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:47,080 S1: parts of the old. 423 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,160 S5: There's a recognition that you need people who know how 424 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,160 S5: to run the state machinery. So there is a recognition 425 00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:55,440 S5: that unless you have blood on your hands, unless you've 426 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:57,960 S5: occupied a senior position in the in this regime, in 427 00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:02,280 S5: the Islamic Republic, then you know, and you obviously Iranian 428 00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:06,080 S5: this is Iran for all Iranians. There needs to be 429 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,720 S5: created off from opportunities for rank and file of the 430 00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:14,420 S5: regime to get off this regime ship and join the opposition, 431 00:30:14,420 --> 00:30:17,420 S5: if you will. But obviously, for that to also be 432 00:30:17,420 --> 00:30:21,940 S5: realistically acceptable to the opposition is yes, you can in, 433 00:30:22,460 --> 00:30:27,100 S5: you know, last and move into the new era. But 434 00:30:27,100 --> 00:30:30,220 S5: you you have to agree to fundamental changes. 435 00:30:30,260 --> 00:30:33,340 S1: As much as a change of personnel is needed. It 436 00:30:33,340 --> 00:30:37,060 S1: is the philosophy of the government that needs to change. 437 00:30:37,460 --> 00:30:42,020 S5: The Islamic Republic needs to go as a concept. The 438 00:30:42,020 --> 00:30:45,740 S5: idea that probably all Iranian well, I shouldn't say all Iranians, 439 00:30:45,740 --> 00:30:49,100 S5: but a clear majority, 8,090% of Iranians seem to to 440 00:30:49,140 --> 00:30:53,380 S5: want and this is not scientific. This is anecdotal, but 441 00:30:53,380 --> 00:30:56,820 S5: it's a separation of of of state and mosque, if 442 00:30:56,820 --> 00:31:00,620 S5: you will, so separate religion from government. And if these 443 00:31:00,620 --> 00:31:04,540 S5: people say, the government accept that you've already kind of 444 00:31:04,580 --> 00:31:07,180 S5: seen the end of the Islamic Republic, they can then 445 00:31:07,220 --> 00:31:11,580 S5: in post Islamic republic, perform the sort of duties they 446 00:31:11,710 --> 00:31:15,270 S5: can do as technocrats running the state machinery. We're talking 447 00:31:15,270 --> 00:31:18,870 S5: about providing basic services. We're talking about running the ministries, 448 00:31:19,150 --> 00:31:22,670 S5: the basic, uh, you know, functions of a state. 449 00:31:22,830 --> 00:31:26,110 S1: After the office of the Supreme Leader, the Islamic Revolutionary 450 00:31:26,150 --> 00:31:30,150 S1: Guard Corps, or IRGC, are probably the next most powerful 451 00:31:30,150 --> 00:31:33,830 S1: institution in the country. Could they set themselves up as 452 00:31:33,870 --> 00:31:35,110 S1: Iran's next leaders? 453 00:31:35,870 --> 00:31:40,270 S5: The idea that IRGC taking over would represent a military takeover, 454 00:31:40,630 --> 00:31:43,070 S5: I think, is misreading what is going on in Iran. 455 00:31:43,070 --> 00:31:46,350 S5: I would argue that the military, in the sense of 456 00:31:46,350 --> 00:31:49,590 S5: the Revolutionary Guards, has been running Iran hand in hand 457 00:31:49,590 --> 00:31:54,230 S5: with Khamenei for at least since 2009 2010. So this 458 00:31:54,230 --> 00:31:58,270 S5: would not be a major turning point because the regular 459 00:31:58,270 --> 00:32:03,190 S5: Iranian military, the larger Artesh, the regular armed forces, they 460 00:32:03,230 --> 00:32:07,350 S5: are a conscript or professional service. They're not politically engaged, 461 00:32:07,590 --> 00:32:09,830 S5: and in fact, they probably have a lot more sympathy 462 00:32:09,830 --> 00:32:12,770 S5: for the opposition and its demands than they have for 463 00:32:12,770 --> 00:32:15,690 S5: the regime. So when we're talking about a military takeover 464 00:32:15,690 --> 00:32:21,010 S5: in Iran, we're talking about IRGC going from operating in reality, 465 00:32:21,010 --> 00:32:25,210 S5: but not in name to maybe, maybe formalizing that. It's 466 00:32:25,210 --> 00:32:28,010 S5: unlikely in a theocracy. They can do that, because in 467 00:32:28,010 --> 00:32:31,890 S5: a theocracy you still need a formal religious figure. It 468 00:32:31,890 --> 00:32:34,050 S5: doesn't have to be as powerful as Khamenei, but you 469 00:32:34,050 --> 00:32:35,729 S5: still need a cleric at the top for it to 470 00:32:35,730 --> 00:32:38,410 S5: be a theocracy. There is this scenario that they get 471 00:32:38,410 --> 00:32:42,410 S5: rid of theocracy entirely. IRGC takes over. That would represent 472 00:32:42,410 --> 00:32:45,970 S5: a big political change because we no longer talk about theocracy, 473 00:32:45,970 --> 00:32:49,130 S5: but it doesn't necessarily mean the policies would change unless 474 00:32:49,130 --> 00:32:52,650 S5: whoever is in the leadership IRGC decides that for their 475 00:32:52,650 --> 00:32:55,930 S5: own sake of survival, they need to adopt a new 476 00:32:55,930 --> 00:32:57,690 S5: political mantra going forward. 477 00:32:57,890 --> 00:33:00,650 S1: If Iran was going to end the theocracy, it would 478 00:33:00,650 --> 00:33:03,890 S1: be a fundamental shift. While the military has been a 479 00:33:03,890 --> 00:33:06,730 S1: strong force and a near constant presence in the country 480 00:33:06,770 --> 00:33:12,430 S1: for decades now, official military rule has never happened in Iran. 481 00:33:13,030 --> 00:33:16,790 S1: It would be an entirely new experience for Iranians. Another 482 00:33:16,790 --> 00:33:20,190 S1: possibility for the future of Iran is a diaspora group. 483 00:33:20,830 --> 00:33:25,910 S5: Iranian diaspora is a project that has been building up 484 00:33:25,910 --> 00:33:29,910 S5: over the course of 47 years, if not more. I mean, 485 00:33:29,910 --> 00:33:33,310 S5: in some cases, some groups existed. Before 1979. The Mujahedin 486 00:33:33,310 --> 00:33:36,150 S5: e Khalq, the MEK was created in the 60s. It's 487 00:33:36,150 --> 00:33:40,390 S5: still probably the most organized Iranian opposition group. It has money. 488 00:33:40,430 --> 00:33:44,590 S5: It has access to play in Washington to into centers 489 00:33:44,590 --> 00:33:49,310 S5: of power in Europe. Um, they present themselves as a 490 00:33:49,310 --> 00:33:52,430 S5: formidable alternative to the Islamic Republic. 491 00:33:52,710 --> 00:33:56,870 S1: The People's Mujahedin Organisation of Iran, or MEK, has been 492 00:33:56,870 --> 00:33:59,590 S1: around for a long time and are no fans of 493 00:33:59,590 --> 00:34:03,070 S1: the current regime. But there are issues with them. 494 00:34:03,390 --> 00:34:08,690 S5: They don't have popularity. They probably, uh, would have small 495 00:34:08,690 --> 00:34:12,170 S5: percentage of Iranians in Iran supporting them simply because they 496 00:34:12,210 --> 00:34:14,090 S5: are a relic of the past. They don't seem to 497 00:34:14,130 --> 00:34:17,450 S5: represent anything new. I mean, they're still an Islamist organization, 498 00:34:17,810 --> 00:34:21,129 S5: and the country of Iran today is kind of over 499 00:34:21,210 --> 00:34:24,650 S5: political Islam. Political Islam is not the solution. So anybody 500 00:34:24,650 --> 00:34:27,690 S5: who speaks in terms of political Islam, like the MEK, 501 00:34:28,290 --> 00:34:31,450 S5: is essentially not misreading the mood in Iran. 502 00:34:31,850 --> 00:34:37,730 S1: In December 2025 and into January 2026, Iranians once again 503 00:34:38,210 --> 00:34:39,570 S1: came out onto the streets. 504 00:34:47,090 --> 00:34:49,330 S5: So the last round of protests sort of began end 505 00:34:49,330 --> 00:34:53,649 S5: of December 2025. In fact, the folks that were out 506 00:34:53,650 --> 00:34:57,569 S5: in the streets were a relatively small group of people 507 00:34:57,570 --> 00:35:01,330 S5: in the sort of trading community upset with the collapse 508 00:35:01,330 --> 00:35:05,299 S5: of the Iranian currency, the rial. And they were out 509 00:35:05,300 --> 00:35:08,980 S5: complaining about something very specific, namely the state of the 510 00:35:08,980 --> 00:35:13,660 S5: economy and why the authorities just continue to fail to 511 00:35:13,700 --> 00:35:18,100 S5: address some of these major economic concerns. But what happened 512 00:35:18,100 --> 00:35:23,620 S5: within a few days is events started radically changing, in 513 00:35:23,620 --> 00:35:29,020 S5: the sense that it spilled over to a larger segment 514 00:35:29,020 --> 00:35:33,300 S5: of society. In fact, in many ways, a record number 515 00:35:33,300 --> 00:35:38,300 S5: of people, by some estimates, 1.5 million people came out 516 00:35:38,580 --> 00:35:43,299 S5: not in one place, but at 900 different locations over 517 00:35:43,300 --> 00:35:46,740 S5: the course of a few weeks, uh, and involving about 518 00:35:46,739 --> 00:35:51,620 S5: 400 cities and towns, which in itself is pretty unprecedented. 519 00:35:53,980 --> 00:35:58,580 S1: These protests were well attended and widespread. It wasn't just 520 00:35:58,580 --> 00:36:04,680 S1: the middle classes of Tehran younger students, ethnic Minorities or 521 00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:09,600 S1: rural workers in the countryside. It was everywhere, all at once. 522 00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:14,000 S1: Faced with this, the regime panicked. The internet was shut 523 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,399 S1: off and the security forces were unleashed upon the streets. 524 00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:22,040 S5: We didn't know for over a week what was going on. 525 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:26,120 S5: Images only came out later, but what had happened was 526 00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:31,080 S5: this sort of mass killing of, at the minimum, it seems, 7000, 527 00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,160 S5: probably more. Uh, again. So when I look at it 528 00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:38,200 S5: from different angles, the trend of protest in Iran isn't 529 00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,759 S5: a new thing. They're happening more frequently because of the 530 00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:43,360 S5: state of the economy, because the regime doesn't listen to 531 00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:47,480 S5: its own people. But this was essentially a wildfire of sorts. 532 00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:51,920 S5: And the politics that was in the mix, uh, was 533 00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:55,959 S5: much more about fundamentally a regime change as opposed to 534 00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,239 S5: kind of, you know, if you go back to 2009, 535 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:03,260 S5: people were asking for reform being instituted. Nobody was asking 536 00:37:03,260 --> 00:37:05,900 S5: for reform this time around. They were saying, this regime 537 00:37:05,940 --> 00:37:09,540 S5: cannot be reformed, has to go. And in that sense, 538 00:37:09,540 --> 00:37:10,859 S5: it was very different. 539 00:37:10,860 --> 00:37:13,899 S1: During these protests, the calls against the regime and the 540 00:37:13,900 --> 00:37:19,500 S1: ayatollah were loud. As loud from some protesters were calls 541 00:37:19,500 --> 00:37:22,420 S1: of support for one particular individual. 542 00:37:22,940 --> 00:37:26,740 S5: And what was also very interesting and perhaps new, was 543 00:37:26,739 --> 00:37:30,219 S5: the focus that many of the protesters, not all, but 544 00:37:30,300 --> 00:37:34,540 S5: a clear number of them, had a chance in favor 545 00:37:34,540 --> 00:37:38,660 S5: of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who did on his part 546 00:37:38,700 --> 00:37:41,660 S5: sitting in the United States, urge people to come to 547 00:37:41,660 --> 00:37:42,380 S5: the streets. 548 00:37:42,739 --> 00:37:46,540 S1: Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi is the eldest son of the 549 00:37:46,540 --> 00:37:51,620 S1: former Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, born in 1960. 550 00:37:51,820 --> 00:37:56,540 S1: He moved to the US in 1978, aged 17, to 551 00:37:56,580 --> 00:38:01,149 S1: train as a pilot. The following year, his father and 552 00:38:01,150 --> 00:38:05,270 S1: the monarchy would be overthrown by the Iranian Revolution, which 553 00:38:05,270 --> 00:38:09,110 S1: paved the way for the Islamic Republic. And Ayatollah Khomeini. 554 00:38:10,110 --> 00:38:13,270 S1: Since then, he has lived in exile as the Shah 555 00:38:13,270 --> 00:38:17,029 S1: of Iran and been a constant voice against the regime. 556 00:38:18,030 --> 00:38:21,390 S1: In recent years, he has become increasingly vocal. 557 00:38:21,630 --> 00:38:25,870 S6: This regime is collapsing. The people are more and more 558 00:38:26,630 --> 00:38:30,790 S6: ready to intervene. This is a historic chance, not just 559 00:38:30,790 --> 00:38:33,069 S6: for the Iranian people, but also for the world to 560 00:38:33,110 --> 00:38:37,750 S6: guarantee that the main reason for a continued concern and 561 00:38:37,750 --> 00:38:41,790 S6: threat will not be alleviated by means of negotiation. It 562 00:38:41,790 --> 00:38:45,149 S6: will only finally come to terms by this regime. No 563 00:38:45,150 --> 00:38:46,150 S6: longer be there. 564 00:38:46,550 --> 00:38:51,790 S5: Crown Prince Pahlavi, um, definitely is in terms of being 565 00:38:51,790 --> 00:38:56,230 S5: an inspirational leader occupying that role right now. For many Iranians, 566 00:38:56,230 --> 00:38:58,710 S5: of course, not all Iranians. We know for a fact 567 00:38:58,750 --> 00:39:02,010 S5: a lot of people have questions about not only what 568 00:39:02,010 --> 00:39:04,810 S5: he wants politically. There's a fear that, you know, why 569 00:39:04,810 --> 00:39:08,250 S5: replace a theocracy if he decided to have anything that 570 00:39:08,250 --> 00:39:10,529 S5: looks like his father's rule, which, by the way, he 571 00:39:10,530 --> 00:39:13,850 S5: has repeatedly said he's not attempting to do that is 572 00:39:13,850 --> 00:39:15,810 S5: not what he wants to do. But it's still a 573 00:39:15,810 --> 00:39:18,210 S5: question mark out there, and a lot of people are 574 00:39:18,250 --> 00:39:19,209 S5: are unsure. 575 00:39:19,489 --> 00:39:22,810 S1: It's worth remembering that his father was not overthrown for 576 00:39:22,890 --> 00:39:27,850 S1: no reason during his time as Shah. Tens of thousands 577 00:39:28,130 --> 00:39:32,170 S1: of political opponents were held prisoner. Repression, torture and bloodshed 578 00:39:32,210 --> 00:39:36,290 S1: were all parts of his time in power. One particular 579 00:39:36,290 --> 00:39:40,850 S1: protest in 1978 saw the security forces shoot and kill 580 00:39:41,010 --> 00:39:47,690 S1: 64 civilians, and injured a further 205 Iranians suffered economically, 581 00:39:48,130 --> 00:39:52,529 S1: while him and his family hosted lavish and opulent parties. 582 00:39:53,010 --> 00:39:56,450 S5: He is essentially benefiting from a couple of things here. 583 00:39:56,530 --> 00:40:00,870 S5: Your average Iranian. Today, about 70% of them were not born. 584 00:40:00,870 --> 00:40:04,750 S5: In 1979, they were born after 79. There is a 585 00:40:04,750 --> 00:40:08,350 S5: sense of nostalgia about the period before 1979. A lot 586 00:40:08,350 --> 00:40:11,509 S5: of it is legitimate. People did live much better lives 587 00:40:11,510 --> 00:40:15,430 S5: before 1979 than they have done after 79. So that 588 00:40:15,430 --> 00:40:18,110 S5: is not what Reza Pahlavi has done. That is what 589 00:40:18,110 --> 00:40:22,350 S5: his father and grandfather done. He's benefiting from the family name, 590 00:40:22,350 --> 00:40:25,510 S5: if you will. Uh, and that is I think that's 591 00:40:25,510 --> 00:40:28,950 S5: totally legitimate. But it's also a reflection of how dire 592 00:40:28,989 --> 00:40:32,550 S5: the situation is for Iranians in Iran. They would grab 593 00:40:32,550 --> 00:40:35,910 S5: on to almost anything at this point, other than Ali 594 00:40:35,910 --> 00:40:40,670 S5: Khamenei and his disastrous policies and his total reluctance to 595 00:40:40,710 --> 00:40:42,110 S5: listen to his own people. 596 00:40:42,350 --> 00:40:45,070 S1: This interview was recorded the day before Khomeini died. 597 00:40:45,270 --> 00:40:48,910 S5: Ali Khamenei we shouldn't forget. For 37 years, pretty much 598 00:40:48,910 --> 00:40:52,910 S5: he has had ample opportunity to change course. He has 599 00:40:52,910 --> 00:40:55,750 S5: had so many opportunities to listen to his own people. 600 00:40:56,090 --> 00:40:59,170 S5: but he's decided that he knows best, and he's brought 601 00:40:59,170 --> 00:41:03,810 S5: the country to this point of potential, uh, major war 602 00:41:03,850 --> 00:41:06,410 S5: and maybe even the end of Iran as we know it. 603 00:41:06,610 --> 00:41:11,450 S5: This is all on Ali Khamenei. Uh, so in that sense, 604 00:41:11,450 --> 00:41:13,770 S5: anybody I mean, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has a lot 605 00:41:13,770 --> 00:41:16,850 S5: to offer, but anybody who had that kind of name 606 00:41:16,850 --> 00:41:20,770 S5: recognition could play a role of the, uh, of an 607 00:41:20,770 --> 00:41:24,730 S5: inspirational leader, because the Islamic Republic is so hated, uh, 608 00:41:24,730 --> 00:41:27,490 S5: inside of the country. And anything essentially is better than 609 00:41:27,489 --> 00:41:28,570 S5: what they have now. 610 00:41:29,170 --> 00:41:34,010 S1: Grand Prince Reza Pahlavi could be a viable leader, maybe 611 00:41:34,010 --> 00:41:37,650 S1: not a leader of the country and a mnemonic. But 612 00:41:37,650 --> 00:41:40,970 S1: as someone who can lead the country to a new 613 00:41:41,010 --> 00:41:45,690 S1: democratic and inclusive future. But he is not without controversy. 614 00:41:46,210 --> 00:41:49,210 S1: Some are wary of his reliance on foreign backing and 615 00:41:49,210 --> 00:41:52,770 S1: his 2023 trip to Israel and failure to speak out 616 00:41:52,770 --> 00:41:57,540 S1: against Israeli airstrikes on Iran have been hotly debated. He 617 00:41:57,540 --> 00:42:01,299 S1: has also said that Iran should normalize relations with Israel 618 00:42:01,300 --> 00:42:07,500 S1: despite Israel's ongoing genocide in Gaza. Reza Pahlavi is controversial. 619 00:42:07,980 --> 00:42:10,980 S1: He is also Iranian, as are the members of the 620 00:42:10,980 --> 00:42:14,540 S1: MEK and the protesters who came out onto the streets 621 00:42:14,540 --> 00:42:18,540 S1: at the beginning of the year, and also the members 622 00:42:18,540 --> 00:42:19,739 S1: of the current regime. 623 00:42:20,180 --> 00:42:22,660 S5: There are different ways of looking at it, but one 624 00:42:22,660 --> 00:42:25,939 S5: thing you got to anticipate or hope that they would 625 00:42:25,940 --> 00:42:31,580 S5: do is to go into whatever political project with maximum awareness, 626 00:42:31,580 --> 00:42:35,980 S5: discussion and their eyes open, and not being naive about 627 00:42:35,980 --> 00:42:39,140 S5: how quickly things can change. This is a regime that's 628 00:42:39,140 --> 00:42:44,219 S5: been there for 47 years. It still has probably about ten, 15, 20% 629 00:42:44,219 --> 00:42:48,260 S5: support that runs into the millions. Um, you can't just 630 00:42:48,260 --> 00:42:50,940 S5: ignore them. They're not going to fly out of the country. 631 00:42:50,940 --> 00:42:54,040 S5: So you have to think about how can you be inclusive? 632 00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:57,400 S5: How can you create defections? I think some in the 633 00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,080 S5: opposition are doing that. They're appealing to members of the 634 00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,680 S5: security forces. They're appealing to the clergy, saying that the 635 00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:06,879 S5: Islamic Republic has been a disaster for the reputation of 636 00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:10,200 S5: Islam among Iranians, who today are the most secular people 637 00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:12,520 S5: in the Middle East, which is very ironic that they've 638 00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:14,640 S5: lived under theocracy for 47 years. 639 00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:17,960 S1: The airstrikes of the US and Israel are continuing today. 640 00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:22,360 S1: And if President Trump's ruminating is to be believed, could 641 00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:26,200 S1: continue for a number of weeks with Iran launching missiles 642 00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:30,279 S1: across the region and Israel now conducting ground operations in Lebanon, 643 00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:34,839 S1: the next few weeks and months will be transformative for 644 00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,839 S1: the region. When the US and Israel do decide to 645 00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:41,720 S1: end their bombing campaign of Iran, the country will need 646 00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:45,480 S1: a new leadership. Final words to Alex Vatanka. 647 00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,560 S5: The real lesson here, in many ways, should be for 648 00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:52,540 S5: the members of the regime, because, you know, there might 649 00:43:52,540 --> 00:43:56,500 S5: be a last opportunity to change course. Uh, where Iranians 650 00:43:56,780 --> 00:44:01,340 S5: organically have a dialogue among themselves and the regime, one 651 00:44:01,340 --> 00:44:04,899 S5: way or another disappears, if you will, or at least 652 00:44:04,900 --> 00:44:07,220 S5: changes so much so that you can't call it Islamic 653 00:44:07,219 --> 00:44:13,140 S5: Republic anymore, because that is the, on paper, the most 654 00:44:13,660 --> 00:44:18,020 S5: ideal situation that it comes from within. Obviously, by working 655 00:44:18,020 --> 00:44:21,940 S5: to the extent possible for diaspora outside because there are outside, 656 00:44:21,940 --> 00:44:25,500 S5: are also Iranians. They're not foreigners trying to dictate the 657 00:44:25,500 --> 00:44:27,899 S5: future of Iran. Most of these people are Iranians who 658 00:44:27,900 --> 00:44:30,899 S5: left in recent years. So they have a say at this. Um, 659 00:44:30,900 --> 00:44:35,259 S5: so you need to be inclusive overall. Uh, and, and, uh, 660 00:44:35,260 --> 00:44:40,020 S5: you have to also, you know, um, accept the reality that, um, 661 00:44:40,500 --> 00:44:45,380 S5: it needs a lot of organization. You cannot just dream, uh, 662 00:44:46,340 --> 00:44:50,239 S5: future Iran that you want and not work hard in 663 00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,279 S5: terms of organization to bring it about. It means you 664 00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:57,600 S5: just need to sit down and think thoroughly through the 665 00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:03,520 S5: various aspects of what change would mean. Find parties, people, networks, 666 00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:07,400 S5: whatever resources to make it happen. I think, you know, 667 00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,959 S5: I understand the anger. I understand that people just want 668 00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:15,800 S5: change tomorrow. Uh, but eh, that's not realistic, uh, in 669 00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:18,640 S5: terms of how quickly it can happen. And b that 670 00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:21,239 S5: means whatever time you have, you now have to prepare. 671 00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:24,240 S5: If you're in the opposition outside, you prepare you, you 672 00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:28,960 S5: unify your voices. You, you you go into this with 673 00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:32,440 S5: your eyes open and you do not let what happened 674 00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:36,400 S5: in 79 happen again, which is go for democracy, end 675 00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:38,040 S5: up with something entirely different. 676 00:45:54,010 --> 00:45:56,090 S1: This episode of The New Artvoice was written and produced 677 00:45:56,090 --> 00:45:58,930 S1: by me, Hugo Goodridge. Our theme music was by Omer 678 00:45:58,930 --> 00:46:01,330 S1: El fil. The new Artvoice will be back with a 679 00:46:01,330 --> 00:46:04,770 S1: new episode shortly. Until then, don't forget to subscribe to 680 00:46:04,810 --> 00:46:07,330 S1: get notified when a new episode drops. You can find 681 00:46:07,330 --> 00:46:09,969 S1: the links in the show notes. You can find all 682 00:46:09,969 --> 00:46:13,410 S1: our previous episodes on all major podcast platforms. You can 683 00:46:13,410 --> 00:46:16,530 S1: also check out our social media accounts on Instagram and X, 684 00:46:16,570 --> 00:46:21,010 S1: both at podcasts, for additional content, and you can email 685 00:46:21,010 --> 00:46:27,130 S1: us at com that's podcast at com. You can subscribe 686 00:46:27,130 --> 00:46:29,049 S1: to the podcast so you never miss an episode. And 687 00:46:29,050 --> 00:46:31,850 S1: you can also rate and review, which helps us spread 688 00:46:31,850 --> 00:46:34,890 S1: the word. Don't forget to follow the New Arab on 689 00:46:34,890 --> 00:46:39,129 S1: Facebook and Instagram for all the latest news, analysis and 690 00:46:39,130 --> 00:46:41,130 S1: opinion from the region.