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Speaker 1: You're listening to I'm Ama Mia podcast.

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Speaker 2: Good Morning, I'm Claire Murphy with the letters from the

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Speaker 2: Quikie Newsroom. Monday, March twenty three, US President Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: has threatened to destroy Iran's power plants if they do

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Speaker 2: not reopen the Strait of Humors. The US Israeli war

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Speaker 2: in Iran is now entering its fourth week, with Iran

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Speaker 2: essentially closing down the Strait of Hullmor's, which is critical

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Speaker 2: for oil and other exports such as fertilizer through the region.

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Speaker 2: Late Saturday, Trump set a forty eight hour deadline for

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Speaker 2: Iran to reopen the waterway to shipping or the US

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Speaker 2: would begin targeting critical infrastructure, such as power plants. Iranian

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Speaker 2: parliament speaker Mohammed Bugher Kaliba responded on social media, saying

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Speaker 2: if Iran's power plants and infrastructure are targeted, then vital

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Speaker 2: infrastructure across the region, including energy and desalination facilities, would

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Speaker 2: be considered legitimate targets and irreversibly destroyed. They also threatened

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Speaker 2: to close the strait completely if their power plants were

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Speaker 2: destroyedoid saying they would not reopen it until those power

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Speaker 2: plants were rebuilt. Iran's officials say they would continue to

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Speaker 2: provide safe passage for vessels from countries other than its enemies. Meanwhile, yesterday,

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Speaker 2: Australia's Energy Minister, Chris Bowen revealed that six tankers carrying

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Speaker 2: fuel bound for Australia had recently been canceled, conceding there

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Speaker 2: could be bumps in supply due to the Iran conflict.

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Speaker 2: Domestic petrol and diesel prices have soared, but the government

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Speaker 2: has repeatedly said that shortages in some regional and rural

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Speaker 2: areas were caused by panic buying rather than supply issues.

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Speaker 2: Mister Bowen said more than eighty shipments of fuel were

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Speaker 2: delivered to Australia in the average month, but a handful

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Speaker 2: had been scrapped in recent weeks. Of the six shipments

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Speaker 2: that had been canceled, Mister Bowen told the ABC that

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Speaker 2: some of those have already been replaced by the importers

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Speaker 2: and refiners with other sources. The Peter Malanowskis led Labour

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Speaker 2: Party has been returned to power in South Australia, but

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Speaker 2: one nation showing in the state has pushed the Liberal

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Speaker 2: Party to near extinction, with more than six sixty percent

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Speaker 2: of ballots counted on Sunday, Labour has secured thirty two

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Speaker 2: of the total forty seven Lower House seats, needing just

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Speaker 2: twenty four for a majority. The Liberals have secured four,

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Speaker 2: with One Nation expected to win at least one lower

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Speaker 2: House seat and could snatch as many as four. One

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Speaker 2: Nation also secured two Upper House seats, including for state

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Speaker 2: leader and former Federal Senator Cory Bernardi. Some political strategists

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Speaker 2: are saying the One Nation polling in Essay doesn't accurately

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Speaker 2: show the magnitude of the result, saying that if there

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Speaker 2: were to be state elections in Queensland, New South Wales

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Speaker 2: of Victoria right now, the party led federally by Pauline

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Speaker 2: Hansen could win more seats, and that Essay is a

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Speaker 2: state that normally should not favor a political movement like

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Speaker 2: One Nation. A recent News poll put One Nation supported

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Speaker 2: twenty seven percent nationally, behind Labor but well ahead of

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Speaker 2: the coalition. Ex cyclone Narrel is expected to cross into

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Speaker 2: Wa today as it leaves behind a trail of damage

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Speaker 2: and flooding in Queensland and the Northern Territory. The storm,

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Speaker 2: which weakened to below cyclone strength after crossing the coast

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Speaker 2: at Cape Shield in remote eastern arnham Land yesterday is

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Speaker 2: still expected to cause widespread damage as more rainfalls on

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Speaker 2: already sodden ground and swollen rivers. The tropical load tracked

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Speaker 2: past Catherine overnight, impacting the northern territory town already struck

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Speaker 2: by widespread flooding from a previous storm just a fortnight ago.

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Speaker 2: The system will move over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf today,

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Speaker 2: potentially strengthening again to a category two cyclone, impacting properties

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Speaker 2: in WA's Kimberly region. The Guthrie family have made another plea,

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Speaker 2: this time to the people of Tucson to help find

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Speaker 2: their missing mother, Nancy Guthrie, the mother of US Today

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Speaker 2: Show host Savannah Guthrie, went missing in the early hours

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Speaker 2: of February first, with investigators believing she was kidnapped, potentially

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Speaker 2: by a man who was seen wearing a mask in

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Speaker 2: gloves caught on missus Guthrie's ring camera. While several people

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Speaker 2: have been brought in for questioning, and the investigation even

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Speaker 2: pointing to Savannah's brother in law as a potential person

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Speaker 2: of interest, no sign of Nancy has been confirmed since

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Speaker 2: she was dropped home by family members. On the night

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Speaker 2: of January thirty one, the new plea was issued by Savannah,

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Speaker 2: Annie and Cameron Guthrie and their spouses during AKVA News

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Speaker 2: for Tucson special called Bring Her Home the Disappearance of

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Speaker 2: Nancy Guthrie, which was televised on Saturday. They called on

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Speaker 2: the people of Tucson, the community where Nancy lived, to

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Speaker 2: consult camera footage, journal notes, text messages, observations of conversations

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Speaker 2: that in retrospect may hold any significance, saying no detail

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Speaker 2: is too small as it may be the key. A

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Speaker 2: crowd of thousands turned out to support the Matilda's at

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Speaker 2: a fan event in Sydney yesterday as the site came

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Speaker 2: to terms with their one neil loss to Japan in

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Speaker 2: the Asian Cup Final. Caitlin Ford and Claire Hunt were

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Speaker 2: not in attendance, the pair amongst several players who had

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Speaker 2: to immediately jump on flights back to Europe to suit

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Speaker 2: up for their UK sides. The rest of the squad

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Speaker 2: were welcomed by the crowd at Darling Harbor, but none

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Speaker 2: of the senior leadership groups spoke to the media. Instead,

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Speaker 2: junior members Chloe Lincoln and Winnie Heatley fronted the cameras

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Speaker 2: to discuss the loss. Meanwhile, specula is swirling around Matilda's

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Speaker 2: captain Sam Kerr, who's facing an uncertain future at her

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Speaker 2: English side Chelsea. According to reports in the UK, the

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Speaker 2: thirty two year old will not remain at the club

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Speaker 2: beyond this season and will instead move to America's National

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Speaker 2: Women's Soccer League. Brooklyn Beckham is reportedly in talks for

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Speaker 2: his own TV special to rival his parents Netflix Steal.

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Speaker 2: Beckham and wife Nikola have reportedly been approached by Hulu,

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Speaker 2: the streaming service that also makes shows like The Kardashians,

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Speaker 2: to create a series around his life that would focus

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Speaker 2: on his culinary business. Hulu boss is also hoping he'll

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Speaker 2: open up about the ongoing feud with his family and

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Speaker 2: the rift with his parents. Nicola Pelts Beckham, who's an actress,

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Speaker 2: has already appeared in a few Hulu productions, including When

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Speaker 2: the Street Lights Go On and The Beauty. The couple,

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Speaker 2: who live in La after they were married in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two, have not been on speaking terms with David

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Speaker 2: and Victoria Beckham in recent years, with Brooklyn posting to

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Speaker 2: his Instagram stories a few months ago that he wants

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Speaker 2: peace from brand Beckham and felt that his parents' life

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Speaker 2: is more focused on promotion than family. Now with more

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Speaker 2: on today's top story, he is Taylor Strano, who's this

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Speaker 2: morning caught up with Bruce Welpe, a senior fellow at

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Speaker 2: the United States Study Center, to discuss the implications of

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Speaker 2: Trump's forty eight hour ultimatum with Iran.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with the ultimatum. US President Donald Trump said

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Speaker 1: that he would obliterate Iran's power plants if they failed

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Speaker 1: to fully reopen the Strait of Humus within that forty

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Speaker 1: eight hour period. We're nearing the first twenty four hours.

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Speaker 1: Can you tell us more about that.

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Speaker 3: We're coming up to the most decisive moment in the

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Speaker 3: war since it was launched, and you had the decapitation

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Speaker 3: of the Iranian regime and the wholesale bombing of the country,

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Speaker 3: which has not led to a resolution at this point.

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Speaker 3: Trump wants to end the war as soon as possible,

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Speaker 3: but he can't end it on his terms. Prognosis is

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Speaker 3: this is going to be in a definite fight, and

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Speaker 3: he can't take that politically because he's really getting killed

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Speaker 3: here in America over his sand In the polls, the

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Speaker 3: rise in petrol gasoline prices has been huge over the

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Speaker 3: past week. The American people have real doubts about the

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Speaker 3: strength of the economy. They're blaming Trump. So he wants out,

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Speaker 3: But how do you get there? And so Trump has

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Speaker 3: this and you have the straight of horror moves held

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Speaker 3: hostage by Iran, and so he's decided, if I provides,

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Speaker 3: if I impose the maximum leverage, that will force them

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Speaker 3: to the table to make an agreement that will let

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Speaker 3: us get out, but really leave them without several things.

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Speaker 3: But another part of this that's so important is that

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Speaker 3: Trump has stated several objectives he wants for this war,

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Speaker 3: a regime change, end of the nuclear program, end of

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Speaker 3: their attacks on other countries. And it hasn't been clear.

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Speaker 3: He's never spoken directly to the American people, aside from

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Speaker 3: announcing the war, that this is what I want, this

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Speaker 3: is what I intend to do. So there's a lot

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Speaker 3: that's ambiguous. On Tuesday in Australia, we'll see if Roan

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Speaker 3: stands firm, we'll see some very huge military activity, but

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Speaker 3: we don't know where it's going to lead.

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Speaker 1: Well, you're so right there, I mean. Iran responded almost

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Speaker 1: instantly and said, if you do this, there will be

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Speaker 1: a retaliation from oursel attack US infrastructure in the region.

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Speaker 1: They've also said here that they could close the strait completely,

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Speaker 1: which would have major repercussions not just on the US

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Speaker 1: but globally.

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Speaker 3: Yes, but also make this a regional war. In other words,

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Speaker 3: attack the infrastructure, particularly the energy infrastructure and the water,

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Speaker 3: the desalination infrastructure in cutter in the UAE, in Saudi Arabia,

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Speaker 3: in Bahrain, in Oman, which is their whole populations depend

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Speaker 3: on this. So it is Iran against the US and

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Speaker 3: the countries they believe are US allies. In other words,

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Speaker 3: it could be catastrophic effects across the Gulf, and then

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Speaker 3: this thing becomes bigger than it was ever that no

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Speaker 3: one has expected that this would become a truly regional

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Speaker 3: war in the Middle East.

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Speaker 1: Well, what else can you tell us, Bruce about the

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Speaker 1: fire that is being traded across the region. This started

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Speaker 1: as Israel and US a joint operation against Iran, but

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Speaker 1: it kind of has spilled out two other neighboring countries.

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Speaker 1: It seems that Israel at the moment have a focus

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Speaker 1: on Lebanon, and they say that's to target his Belah.

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Speaker 1: Could we see us involvement there as well.

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Speaker 3: I don't think so. I think Trump sees that as

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Speaker 3: Israel's war with Lebanon, and what Israel is doing is

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Speaker 3: repeating the playbook with Gassa. It's the same thing telling

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Speaker 3: people get out of the territory, we're going to occupy it.

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Speaker 3: Drive has Belah farther north out of range, and it's

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Speaker 3: related absolutely. But give us the Iranti too, as Bola,

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Speaker 3: but that will have its own timeline for conclusion. Trump

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Speaker 3: started the war in order first to take out Iran's

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Speaker 3: nuclear capability after destroying it going into obliteration nine months ago.

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Speaker 3: He also wanted to eliminate their offensive military capability, and

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Speaker 3: he was hoping for regime change. The first shock did

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Speaker 3: not result in regime change. So now you're kind of stuck.

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Speaker 3: Where do you want to go. There's an expression in

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Speaker 3: the Middle East. It's called mowing the lawn. When you

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Speaker 3: have Iran and you have posed a nuclear threat, he

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Speaker 3: had it with a rock twenty years ago. Well, every

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Speaker 3: so often you have to go in and destroy their

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Speaker 3: offensive capability, and that's life. It's messy, but at least

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Speaker 3: there's if not peace, thumb stability. Trump has rejected that

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Speaker 3: he really wants some maximum results from Iran, so it

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Speaker 3: doesn't exist tomorrow in the present form it is today,

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Speaker 3: but getting there the Iranians there has been no regime

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Speaker 3: change and the people in charge are stubborn and locked

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Speaker 3: in and they're not going to give up.

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Speaker 1: This all runs quite contrary to what Trump sort of

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Speaker 1: ran part of his reelection campaign on, which was to

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Speaker 1: not start any new wars. You've alluded to it already,

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Speaker 1: But what is the opinion on the ground in the

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Speaker 1: US at the moment about this entire saga.

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Speaker 3: There are two layers of politics here. Do the American

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Speaker 3: people support the attack on Iran? And it's general, it's

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Speaker 3: under forty percent. This has approval of under forty percent

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Speaker 3: of Americans. But inside the Republican Party Trump's face, they

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Speaker 3: something really interesting is going on. Trump campaigned on no

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Speaker 3: More Forever wars and the MAGA movement. That's where they

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Speaker 3: are committed to, and they the last thing that people

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Speaker 3: expected when Trump was inaugurated as president was that he

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Speaker 3: would launch a war with Iran. And so inside the

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Speaker 3: Republican Party there is a split. And I would say

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Speaker 3: seventy five percent of Republicans support Trump. They trust him,

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Speaker 3: They elected him to be a powerful leader for America,

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Speaker 3: America first and protect America, and they say, go ahead

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Speaker 3: and do it, but twenty five percent are peeling off.

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Speaker 3: There was a senior official who worked for Tulsa Gavard

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Speaker 3: who resigned last week saying he was opposed to this war.

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Speaker 3: Wrong purpose, wrong execution, and it's really hurting America. And

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Speaker 3: I would say twenty five percent of Republicans are agreeing

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Speaker 3: with that, and that has serious implications for November the

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Speaker 3: midterm elections. If Republicans are not as united and strong

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Speaker 3: going into the midterm elections, that means the Democrats will

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Speaker 3: gain in November and have more representation, take control of

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Speaker 3: the House, and maybe even take control of the Senate.

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Speaker 3: So his future as president politically rests on what happens

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Speaker 3: really in the next forty eight hours.

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Speaker 1: Bruce, how do you think this ends? I mean, Trump

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Speaker 1: said that he didn't want this to drag out, and

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Speaker 1: it may be that it's playing out in the Middle East,

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Speaker 1: but the repercations are being felt all across the world,

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Speaker 1: including here in Australia. We've seen fuel price spikes, We've

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Speaker 1: seen mass chaos with travel plans across the region where

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Speaker 1: and when do you think that this will all be done?

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Speaker 3: When the Strait of horm Moos is open, that's when

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Speaker 3: the war will end. But getting there could take a

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Speaker 3: really long time to open the Straight of horm Moves.

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Speaker 3: Iran has several conditions. It wants an end of the war.

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Speaker 3: It wants a commitment of the United States, it will

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Speaker 3: not restart the war. No US military bases in the Gulf,

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Speaker 3: and they want to get compensation for all the damage

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Speaker 3: that has been done. That doesn't sound like a credible

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Speaker 3: start to in a solution from them. But if the

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Speaker 3: US attacks Iran, then Iran is going to attack this

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Speaker 3: regional war that could break out oil, energy, and industrial

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Speaker 3: infrastructure throughout the Gulf. So we will see whether what

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Speaker 3: happens over the next couple of days leads to an

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Speaker 3: opening of the Straight of horm Moves. If not, we're

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Speaker 3: what we're doing right now is going to continue indefinitely.

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Speaker 1: And do you think we could see a ground invasion.

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Speaker 1: We know that lots of US allies have said no,

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Speaker 1: we won't be joining in on that, but that doesn't

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Speaker 1: stop the US necessarily.

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Speaker 3: And we have thousands of marines on ships headed there.

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Speaker 3: They could have two missions. One is to take over

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Speaker 3: carg Island, from which Iran exports all of its oil,

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Speaker 3: So that would mean the United States is now controlling

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Speaker 3: Iranian oil. United States now controls Venezuelan oil. But on

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Speaker 3: the nuclear front, nuclear fuel that is buried under Natanz

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Speaker 3: because of the strikes in June of last year, there's

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Speaker 3: an urgency to recover it and make sure it is

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Speaker 3: out of Iranian hands. So you could have marines poised

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Speaker 3: to take over carg Island and to go to Natans

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Speaker 3: with a whole bunch of equipment and try and get

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Speaker 3: that nuclear fuel. But those are huge operations, a lot

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Speaker 3: of fighting. There could be casualties, and when you put

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Speaker 3: troops on the ground, it could look more like a

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Speaker 3: rock than a cleaner. If you will, more focused, more

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Speaker 3: limited war.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for taking some time to feed your mind with

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Speaker 1: us today. This episode of the Quickie is produced by

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Speaker 1: me Taylor Strano, Alaria Brofi and Claire Murphy.

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Speaker 2: Mumma Mea acknowledges the traditional owners of land and waters

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Speaker 2: that this podcast is recorded on