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Speaker 1: You're listening to a Muma Mea podcast. Mamma Mea acknowledges

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Speaker 1: the traditional owners of land and waters that this podcast

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Speaker 1: is recorded on.

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Speaker 2: Hi.

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Speaker 1: I'm Claire Murphy. This is Mumma MIA's twice daily news podcast,

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Speaker 1: The Quickie. Over the weekend, you might have seen stories

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Speaker 1: of an unfolding situation in Syria of rebel forces taking

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Speaker 1: over the country and forcing ruler of Bashah Alasade to flee. Today,

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Speaker 1: we unwrap what happened to Syria this past weekend and

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Speaker 1: find out what it means for the people, the region,

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Speaker 1: and the world for this dictatorship to finally come to

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Speaker 1: an end, or even if it will stay that way.

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Speaker 1: But first, here's the letters from the Quickie newsroom. Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: December tenth. Authorities are questioning a man they believe may

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Speaker 1: be connected to the shooting of the CEO of United

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Speaker 1: Healthcare in New York last week. Investigators received a tip

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Speaker 1: off about a man in a McDonald's in Pennsylvania who

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Speaker 1: they thought looked like the vision of the man from

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Speaker 1: CCTV footage on the Dave Brian to Robson was shot

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Speaker 1: as he walked into the Hilton Hotel to attend a conference.

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Speaker 1: Police found the man in possession of a gun, a silencer,

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Speaker 1: and false IDs, one which matched the ID used by

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Speaker 1: the suspect to check into a hotel in Manhattan before

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Speaker 1: the shooting. He's been arrested on local charges, possibly in

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Speaker 1: connection to presenting a false ID to police, and will

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Speaker 1: be questioned by New York detectives later today. A trio

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Speaker 1: wanted over the fire bombing of a Melbourne synagogue remain

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Speaker 1: on the run, with a joint counter terror team now

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Speaker 1: put in charge of the investigation. Authorities declared the fire

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Speaker 1: a likely terror attack yesterday, confirming they were looking for

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Speaker 1: three suspects, but gave no further details on who they

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Speaker 1: might be or whether they were known to police. The

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Speaker 1: declaration allows investigators to utilize extra powers to stop, search

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Speaker 1: and seize without a warrant, as well as detain people

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Speaker 1: they believe have knowledge of or links to a terror attack.

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Speaker 1: The Prime Minister yesterday also declared a federal task force

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Speaker 1: to investigate acts of anti Semitism, which have been on

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Speaker 1: the rise since the war in Gaza began last year.

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Speaker 1: Ozzie homeowners are being told not to expect a present

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Speaker 1: from the Reserve Bank before Christmas. With an expectation rates

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Speaker 1: will be left on hold for December. The decision would

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Speaker 1: mark more than a year of Australians paying rates on

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Speaker 1: top of the four point three to five percent cash rate.

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Speaker 1: The increase put in place to tackle increasing levels of inflation.

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Speaker 1: The annual headline inflation rate is now sitting at two

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Speaker 1: point eight percent, back within the RBA's target window. Experts

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Speaker 1: are now predicting that rates will start to come down

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Speaker 1: in the June twenty twenty five quarter. With the Eras

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Speaker 1: tour coming to an end this past weekend, it's been

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Speaker 1: revealed just how much extra cash Taylor Swift has handed

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Speaker 1: her crew for the massive efforts they've been putting in

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Speaker 1: as she traveled the globe with her show. Over the

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Speaker 1: past two years of touring, Swift has given out more

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Speaker 1: than one hundred and ninety seven million dollars US in

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Speaker 1: bonuses to those working alongside her, including those who drive

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Speaker 1: the trucks, caterers, assistants, lighting and soundtechs, the physios, hair

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Speaker 1: and makeup, and more. During her final show in Vancouver

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, Swift said they'd toured the entire world, had

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Speaker 1: so many adventures, and that it had been the most exciting, powerful, electrifying, intense,

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Speaker 1: most challenging things She's ever done in her life. The

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Speaker 1: Golden Globe nominations came out overnight, with Drug Cartel musical

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Speaker 1: Amelia Perez leading the pack with ten. Wicked unsurprisingly grabbed

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Speaker 1: a few, including a nod to both stars Ariana Grande

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Speaker 1: and Cynthia Arrivo, but director John m Chu didn't make

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Speaker 1: the cut. Brutalist came in second for number of nods

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Speaker 1: with seven and Conclave with six. Ozzie Is, Nicole Kidman

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Speaker 1: and Cate Blanchetta in the running for Best Actress for

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Speaker 1: Baby Girl and disclaimer, That's What's going on in the

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Speaker 1: world today? Next, what happened in Syria this weekend? And

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Speaker 1: what does it have to do with Russia. The Assard

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Speaker 1: dynasty's more than fifty year iron grip on Syria appears

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Speaker 1: to have crumbled as rebel forces made significant advances across

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Speaker 1: the country over the weekend. The Assard family's rule began

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Speaker 1: back in nineteen seventy one, when Hafez Alissade seized power

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Speaker 1: through a military coup. Originally from an impoverished Aloite background,

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Speaker 1: Huffez transformed Syria into a dynastic dictatorship, installing loyal Alouite

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Speaker 1: strong men while removing Sunnis, Drew's and Ismailis from positions

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Speaker 1: of power. When Hauffas died in two thousand, his second son, Bashah,

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Speaker 1: an ophthalmologists trained in London, unexpectedly inherited the presidency after

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Speaker 1: his older brother Basel's death in a car accident. The

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Speaker 1: Syrian Parliament swiftly changed the constitution to lower the presidential

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Speaker 1: age requirement to accommodate the then thirty four year old

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Speaker 1: Now the Islamist group Higher Taria alsham or HTS and

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Speaker 1: Turkish backed rebels have captured part of the country, claiming

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Speaker 1: victory over a regime that has been the target of

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Speaker 1: Australian sanctions since twenty eleven over human rights issues. The

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Speaker 1: federal government, calling a military crackdown on protesters had deeply

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Speaker 1: disturbing and unacceptable use of violence against its people. Syria

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Speaker 1: sits between Lebanon, Ira and Turkey in the Middle East,

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Speaker 1: with a part of it touching the Mediterranean Sea and back.

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Speaker 1: In twenty eleven, as part of the wider Arab Spring movement,

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Speaker 1: large scale protests and pro democracy rallies broke out across

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Speaker 1: the country. Calling for an end to the ASAD regime.

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Speaker 1: The government in turn cracked down on the protesters using

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Speaker 1: violent force, but the harsh treatment pushed the movement underground,

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Speaker 1: with various anti government groups forming, and by mid twenty twelve,

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Speaker 1: the country was in the groups of a civil war HTS,

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Speaker 1: which leaves the rebellion we've just seen unfold has evolved

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Speaker 1: significantly from its origins as an al Qaeda affiliate, the

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Speaker 1: group has transformed into a formidable force controlling Italy Province,

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Speaker 1: where it functions as a quasi government entity. Its professionalized

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Speaker 1: its military capabilities, established a military academy, and reorganized its

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Speaker 1: units into a more conventional structure that this conflict involves

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Speaker 1: far more than just the Assade regime and rebels in Syria.

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Speaker 1: Both Russia and Irae have been crucial supporters of ASAD

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Speaker 1: but are currently distracted by their conflicts. Russia obviously with

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Speaker 1: Ukraine and Iran with tensions in the region linked to

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Speaker 1: Israel and Gaza, and Israel and Lebanon. Their reduced support

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Speaker 1: has left Asade vulnerable. It's been reported that Bashar al

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Speaker 1: Asade has fled to Russia, where he's been granted asylum.

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Speaker 1: While officially opposing Asad. Turkey's primary concern is preventing Kurdish

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Speaker 1: autonomy along the Syrian border. Now, the current offensive serves

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Speaker 1: Turkish interests by potentially weakening both Aside and Kurdish forces.

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Speaker 1: With approximately nine hundred troops in Syria. The US has

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Speaker 1: supported Kurdish forces while viewing the situation as an opportunity

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Speaker 1: to diminish Russian and Iranian influence in the region. Despite

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Speaker 1: being critical of the Gaza conflict, Turkey appears to be

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Speaker 1: coordinating with Israel against Assad and Iran backed militants, as

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Speaker 1: evidenced by recent Israeli interception of suspected Iranian armed shipments.

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Speaker 1: So there are a stack of different groups, all with

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Speaker 1: different interests in this region. So what happens to Syria now?

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Speaker 1: Will this see an end to dictatorship and a return

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Speaker 1: of democracy? Was this a case of better the devil?

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Speaker 2: You know?

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Speaker 1: Doctor Jessica Genauer is a senior lecturer in international relations

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Speaker 1: at Flinders University. Jessica, what does this mean for Syria

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Speaker 1: moving forward?

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Speaker 2: Well, I think that there are a few options regarding

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Speaker 2: what the outcome of this could be. I think, first

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Speaker 2: of all, we might see the reigniting of violent civil

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Speaker 2: conflict as different groups try to vie for power and

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Speaker 2: control over the country. I don't think that option is

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Speaker 2: incredibly likely, just because many of the groups involved are

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Speaker 2: quite exhausted from thirteen plus years of civil war since

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Speaker 2: twenty eleven. Another option is that we might see one group,

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Speaker 2: so for example, one rebel faction, maybe Hiat Tahirasham, maybe

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Speaker 2: in collaboration with military or security forces, actually taking control

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Speaker 2: of the country and having some kind of centralized governance.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that option is very likely either, because

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Speaker 2: there's no one group that seems to be strong enough

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Speaker 2: at this stage and to have the legitimacy to take

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Speaker 2: full control over the whole country. A third option, which

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Speaker 2: I think is the most likely option, is that we're

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Speaker 2: actually going to see some kind of breakdown of a

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Speaker 2: centralized nation state of Syria, and that instead we'll see

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Speaker 2: different groups. We've got, you know, Kurdish groups, We've got

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Speaker 2: other rebel factions. There might be other groups that come

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Speaker 2: into play who will actually have control over different chunks

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Speaker 2: of territory of the country that we're sort of used

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Speaker 2: to calling Syria, and that there'll be some kind of

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Speaker 2: much more decentralized control going forward.

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Speaker 1: What about assad sympathizers, the Alowit backing group that have been,

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Speaker 1: you know, the core of Assad's government for such a

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Speaker 1: long time, where do they sit in this now?

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Speaker 2: So what we've actually seen is that those sort of

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Speaker 2: key security forces that were loyal to Asad and that

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Speaker 2: really helped him to maintain control after the twenty eleven

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Speaker 2: protests that broke out in Syria and that led to

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Speaker 2: a kind of a civil war that they've actually folded

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Speaker 2: incredibly quickly as rebels started to move towards Damascus and

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Speaker 2: then move into Damascus, which was really assad stronghold, and

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Speaker 2: no one really expected that Asad would lose that so quickly,

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Speaker 2: which means, I mean there are a couple of reasons

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Speaker 2: why Asad's own security forces seem to have become pretty

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Speaker 2: much ineffective. We could say, and might join forces with

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Speaker 2: other groups going forward, but they won't try to maintain

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Speaker 2: any kind of rule for Usad, who himself has already

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Speaker 2: fled the country. There are a couple of reasons for that.

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Speaker 2: One is that this ongoing kind of civil conflict since

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Speaker 2: twenty eleven has had a lot of costs on Asad's regime.

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Speaker 2: It's been much harder for him economically, security forces have

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Speaker 2: been degraded, his own security forces. The second reason is

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Speaker 2: that Asad was relying very heavily on foreign backers, in

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Speaker 2: particular Russia, as we know, also Iran and then as

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Speaker 2: a proxy for Iran Hezblah forces. Now all of those actors,

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Speaker 2: Russia and Iran and Hezbla have been seriously degraded in

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Speaker 2: the recent last sort of one to three years, and

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Speaker 2: that's also led to a hollowing out of Asad's own

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Speaker 2: ability to maintain security control over Damascus and more broadly

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Speaker 2: over the territory that he had control over in Syria.

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Speaker 1: What does this mean sort of more region wide, Jessica,

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Speaker 1: Because obviously there's a lot of unrest going on with

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Speaker 1: Israel and Gaza and Israel and Lebanon and with various

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Speaker 1: other things ongoing. This obviously, as you said, happened more

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Speaker 1: because Russia and Iran have been busy with other things,

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Speaker 1: obviously Russia with Ukraine. But what does this mean kind

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Speaker 1: of region? Why does it impact any of those other

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Speaker 1: conflicts that are ongoing.

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Speaker 2: This definitely does impact, and the truth is that at

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Speaker 2: this stage we don't know exactly how, but we can

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Speaker 2: almost trace back this very quick fall of AUSSAD, two

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Speaker 2: events that have occurred in the region since October seventh

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Speaker 2: last year, and the subsequent degrading of Hezbollah. So of

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Speaker 2: course there's Russia as well, and that's in the background.

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Speaker 2: But this real sort of last year where we've seen

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Speaker 2: both Iran and Hesberla takes such heavy blows in terms

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Speaker 2: of their leadership and their sort of capability, I think

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Speaker 2: has led almost directly to the fact that the rebels

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Speaker 2: felt confident that they could reach Damascus and that they

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Speaker 2: could take over and that USAD essentially would fold. So

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Speaker 2: I think, you know, no one would have predicted that

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Speaker 2: the fall of USAID's regime would have come as a

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Speaker 2: result of essentially Hamasa's attack on Israel on October seventh,

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Speaker 2: And I think that this is similar in that we

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Speaker 2: can't predict what this will mean for the region in

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Speaker 2: six months time, in a year's time, in two years time. However,

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Speaker 2: I think what is clear is that it adds to

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Speaker 2: the general uncertainty and volatility in the region, and that

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Speaker 2: there will be implications. So this definitely weakens Iran if

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Speaker 2: we're looking at kind of the geopolitical balance, who were

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Speaker 2: a strong ally of Asad and him being in power

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Speaker 2: was very important for them. It also weakens Russia as

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Speaker 2: well in terms of their influence and their sort of

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Speaker 2: ability to have leverage within the region.

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Speaker 1: What does this mean for Australia's relationship in this region

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Speaker 1: because we've had sanctions in Plasic and Syria since that

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Speaker 1: the Arab Spring essentially in twenty eleven. Does that mean

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Speaker 1: we have to rethink those alliances and relationships depending on

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Speaker 1: how this all kind of falls.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So Australia and I think other Western countries, the

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Speaker 2: European Union, you know, US, Canada, et cetera. I think

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Speaker 2: that we will be waiting to see what happens now.

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Speaker 2: So Australia will be waiting to see whether there is

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Speaker 2: some kind of centralized government that emerges that can be

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Speaker 2: negotiated with that maybe you know, we could lift some

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Speaker 2: of those sanctions that have been in place in coordination

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Speaker 2: and negotiations with some kind of new regime. If there

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Speaker 2: is a new regime, Australia will very much be waiting

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Speaker 2: to see what is the nature of that new regime.

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Speaker 2: So are they one that Australia sort of feels comfortable

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Speaker 2: to negotiate with or are they a regime that Australia

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Speaker 2: is going to feel less comfortable about, and then Australia

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Speaker 2: will also be waiting to see maybe there is no

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Speaker 2: centralized regime that emerges, as I was sort of laying

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Speaker 2: out in my response to your first question. And if

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Speaker 2: that's the case, if we're looking at a more fractured

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Speaker 2: governance landscape, then Australia might not have anyone specifically to

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Speaker 2: negotiate with in the near term. I think a way

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Speaker 2: in which Australia will be impacted more generally is that

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Speaker 2: we do always feel some kind of economic shock waves,

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Speaker 2: unfortunately from events like this that take place. So if

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Speaker 2: there is some sort of ongoing instability in Syria, if

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Speaker 2: it becomes some kind of fractured state, Australia will feel

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Speaker 2: the impacts of that, and that there'll be a flow

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Speaker 2: on effect in terms of things that we've been experiencing

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Speaker 2: this year, like inflation, petrol prices, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Just finally, Bashar Alisade was very quick to flee the

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Speaker 1: country after everything that unfolded on the weekend. What happens

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Speaker 1: to him now? Can he just live out his days

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Speaker 1: in Russia in exile? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I believe that he can. So going to Russia was

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Speaker 2: probably a smart move on his behalf, And I'm sure

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Speaker 2: that Asad had in place a contingency plan for himself,

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Speaker 2: you know, should something like this happen, Asad would have

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Speaker 2: known that as soon as the rebels reached Damascus that

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Speaker 2: was basically a death sentence for him either way. So

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Speaker 2: even if some of his security forces managed to cling on,

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Speaker 2: the first thing the rebels would be wanting to do

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Speaker 2: would be to track down Usad and essentially execute him.

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Speaker 2: So fleeing early was probably smart on his behalf. Yes,

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Speaker 2: I do think he can stay in Russia because Russia

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Speaker 2: has its own very tense, fractured relationship with many other

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Speaker 2: countries in the world right now. Russia essentially can genuinely

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Speaker 2: guarantee us Ad some kind of political immunity within Russia

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Speaker 2: and that they will never themselves hand him over to

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Speaker 2: any you know, other countries that might want him to

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Speaker 2: see justice for the type of things that were perpetuated

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Speaker 2: by his regime. So yes, I do imagine that he

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Speaker 2: could very well live to an old age in Russia. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: he won't have any political power, he won't be running

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Speaker 2: a country, but he does escape with his life.

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Speaker 1: Jessica, thank you so much for giving us your insights

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Speaker 1: and your expertise on this today. We really appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, You're welcome, Thanks for having me on.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for taking the time to feed your mind with

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Speaker 1: us today. The quickie is produced by me, Claire Murphy

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Speaker 1: and our executive producer Tayle Estrano, with audio production by

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Speaker 1: Tig and Sadler.