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Speaker 1: You're listening to a Muma mea podcast. Mamma Mia acknowledges

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Speaker 1: the traditional owners of land and waters that this podcast

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Speaker 1: is recorded on Hi. I'm Claire Murphy. This is Mma

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Speaker 1: MIA's daily news podcast, The Quickie. On Thursday, Singapore's Transport

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Speaker 1: Ministry released their early findings into the severe turbulence incident

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Speaker 1: that left one passenger debt and many others injured while

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Speaker 1: en route to Singapore from London last month. Today we

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Speaker 1: find out exactly what happened and why air travel may

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Speaker 1: need to prepare themselves for more of the same. But

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Speaker 1: before we get into the findings, here's the latest from

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Speaker 1: the Quiki newsroom. Tuesday June fourth, Matilda's coach Tony Gustafson

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Speaker 1: is confident his team can bring home an Olympic medal

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Speaker 1: in Paris after sealing a two year win over China

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Speaker 1: in a friendly last night. The call comes despite the

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Speaker 1: team missing captain Sam Kur due to a knee injury

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Speaker 1: and concerns over the fitness of striker Caitlin Ford, who's

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Speaker 1: injured her hamstring, and midfield A's Katrina Gorrie who's done

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Speaker 1: her ankle. Attackers Amy Sawyer and Holly McNamara have also

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Speaker 1: suffered torn acls, while Kaya Simon and Chloe Lagazo are

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Speaker 1: also dealing with similar injuries, Gustavson saying they've still managed

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Speaker 1: to win despite the long injury list. Last night's win

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Speaker 1: in Sydney was a fitting farewell for Matilda's goalkeeper Lydia Williams,

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Speaker 1: who's announced she's retiring from international football after the Olympics.

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Speaker 1: The thirty six year old given a guard of honor

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Speaker 1: and presented a kangaroo cloak covered in symbols of her

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Speaker 1: home and family by sporting legend Ivonne Gulagong. Corley experts

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Speaker 1: say the bump in minimum wage from the start of

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Speaker 1: July won't throw the RBA off course from getting inflation

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Speaker 1: back down to target. Millions of workers will receive a

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Speaker 1: three point seventy five percent pay rise next month following

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Speaker 1: the Fair Work Commission's annual decision. Based on a new

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Speaker 1: hourly rate of twenty four dollars, ten full time workers

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Speaker 1: will be taking home an extra thirty three dollars a week.

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Speaker 1: With inflation currently sitting at three point six percent, wages

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Speaker 1: will be growing slightly faster than consumer prices for one

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Speaker 1: in five Ozzie employees, but economists say they were expecting

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Speaker 1: the minimum wage boost. The RBA welcoming the decision as

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Speaker 1: it reduces the risk of wage price spiral, where wage

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Speaker 1: increases chase prices in a constant feedback loop. An aid

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Speaker 1: to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed they have

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Speaker 1: accepted a framework deal for winding down the war in

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Speaker 1: Gaza created by US President Joe Biden. Netnaho's chief policy

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Speaker 1: advisor said Biden's deal was one they agreed to, but

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Speaker 1: described it as flawed and in need of much work,

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Speaker 1: claiming it wasn't a good deal, but that they dearly

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Speaker 1: want the hostages taken during a terror attack by Hamas

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Speaker 1: on October seven to be released. Biden released details of

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Speaker 1: the three phase plan on Friday, Phase one calling for

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Speaker 1: a truce and the return of some hostages. The second

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Speaker 1: phase will be the negotiation of an open ended cessation

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Speaker 1: of hostilities in which the remaining captives would be let go,

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Speaker 1: but the Biden deal includes Hamas continuing to play a role,

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Speaker 1: a sticking point that Israel has long disagreed with. Ze

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Speaker 1: Tennesse's Alex Dimenor has become the first Australian man to

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Speaker 1: reach a Paris Open quarterfinal in twenty years. Diminor came

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Speaker 1: from a set down to defeat Daniel Medvedev, reaching just

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Speaker 1: his second quarter finals in a Grand Slam, claiming he

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Speaker 1: loves the clay as he became the first Australian man

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Speaker 1: since his Idol Mentor and Davis Cup captain Lighton Hewett

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Speaker 1: made the quarters in Paris in two thousand and four.

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Speaker 1: He'll either face Olympic champ Alexander Zverev or Holgaroon in

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Speaker 1: the final eight. That's what's happening around the world today. Next,

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Speaker 1: is turbulence getting worse? And if so, why and what

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Speaker 1: can we do about it? On May twenty first, Singapore

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Speaker 1: Airlines flight SQ three two one was flying two hundred

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Speaker 1: and eleven passengers and eighteen crew from London to Singapore.

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Speaker 1: There were fifty six Aussies on board, making their way

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Speaker 1: home from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere. There were

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Speaker 1: some thunderstorms in the area, but passengers say it had

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Speaker 1: been pretty smooth sailing until suddenly, ten hours into the flight,

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Speaker 1: the plane hit turbulence. Passengers described how the aircraft seemed

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Speaker 1: to tilt upwards and shake before it then dropped things.

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Speaker 2: Are going very smoothly. At first. I'd just been to

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Speaker 2: the loop, came back, sat down, a bit of turbulence

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Speaker 2: and suddenly the plane plunged. It was a long way

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Speaker 2: and so sudden. There was no warning at all, and

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Speaker 2: I ended up pitting my head on the ceiling. My

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Speaker 2: life did. Some poor people are walking around ended up

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Speaker 2: doing somersaults.

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Speaker 1: That's sixty eight year old British Man Jerry, who was

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Speaker 1: on the flight speaking to the ABC. Those not wearing

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Speaker 1: a seat belt were thrown from their seats, hitting their

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Speaker 1: heads on the overhead baggage cupboards. Anything that wasn't secured

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Speaker 1: was flung into the air, as were those who'd gotten

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Speaker 1: up to go to the bathroom. Ten seconds later, it

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Speaker 1: was calm again, but photos from inside the cabin showed

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Speaker 1: the chaos that faced those on board. People's belongings were

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Speaker 1: strewn everywhere, pieces of the cabin were cracked and broken,

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Speaker 1: and people lay injured in the aisles, many suffering head

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Speaker 1: and spinal injuries. The pilot diverted the flight to Bangkok

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Speaker 1: so the injured could be treated, The airline confirming last

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Speaker 1: week that forty two people are still in Bangkok, including

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Speaker 1: twenty six passengers who were still undergoing treatment. Many have

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Speaker 1: had to have spinal surgery, some may not ever fully recover,

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Speaker 1: and sadly, a seventy three year old man died after

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Speaker 1: it's believed his heart gave out during the chaos.

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Speaker 3: On behalf of Singapore Airlines. I would like to express

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Speaker 3: my deepest condolences to the family and loved ones of

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Speaker 3: the decease. We are very sorry for the traumatic experience

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Speaker 3: that everyone on board a s Q three to one

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Speaker 3: went through.

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Speaker 1: So what happened? The preliminary report released a few days

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Speaker 1: ago shows that when the plane encountered vibrations from the

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Speaker 1: clear air turbulence, there was an uncommanded increase in altitude

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Speaker 1: that resulted in the autopilot pitching the aircraft downwards to compensate.

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Speaker 1: This caused a sudden change in gravitational force, which would

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Speaker 1: have forced those not strapped in to become airborne. Just

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Speaker 1: a few days after Flight SQ three to two one

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Speaker 1: experience that severe turbulence event, Qatar Airways flight one oh

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Speaker 1: seven from Doha to Dublin also flew into something similar,

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Speaker 1: sending twelve passengers to hospital to be treated for their injuries.

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Speaker 1: Back in twenty twenty three, seven passengers were hospitalized when

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Speaker 1: a lufthans A flight from Austin, Texas to Frankfurt suddenly

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Speaker 1: dropped one thousand feet. It happened right in the middle

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Speaker 1: of meal service, with people getting up to go to

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Speaker 1: the toilet. A day after that incident, twenty passengers and

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Speaker 1: crew were injured on a Condor flight from Frankfurt to

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Speaker 1: Mauritius due to severe turbulence. Back in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 1: thirty six people were heard after turbulence hit Hawaiian Airlines

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Speaker 1: flight from Phoenix to Honolulu. Eight were hospitalized after an

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Speaker 1: American Airlines flight was impacted by turbulence en route to

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Speaker 1: Nashville from Tampa in Florida, forcing them to land in Alabama,

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Speaker 1: and the list continues. According to the National Center for

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Speaker 1: Atmospheric Research, about sixty five thousand flights every year experience turbulence,

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Speaker 1: with about five five hundred of those the severe variety.

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Speaker 1: Some say climate change is to blame for the increase

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Speaker 1: in turbulence, So is this what we're seeing here? Doctor

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Speaker 1: Jason Middleton is an emeritus professor in the School of

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Speaker 1: Aviation at the University of New South Wales. Doctor Middleton,

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Speaker 1: we were told a few years ago that climate change

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Speaker 1: would start to impact the severity and frequency of turbulence.

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Speaker 1: Is that what's happening.

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Speaker 4: Well, we don't know whether that's what we're seeing on

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Speaker 4: any particular incident, but on average, the climate is certainly warming,

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Speaker 4: and the physical processes that go into that will increase

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Speaker 4: the level of turbulence in the atmosphere overall.

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Speaker 5: The important matter really to think.

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Speaker 4: About is that the sun heats the surface of the Earth,

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Speaker 4: but it also heats the surface of the ocean. The

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Speaker 4: heat then is transferred into the atmosphere from the surface

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Speaker 4: of the ocean and the surface of the earth now,

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Speaker 4: particularly from the surface of the ocean.

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Speaker 5: When that's warmer, more water.

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Speaker 4: Gets evaporated and ends up in the atmosphere, so more

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Speaker 4: water vapor goes up. Then obviously that water vapor has

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Speaker 4: to come down again eventually, and does so as rainfall,

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Speaker 4: by and large. Alongside that process, there's an interesting thing

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Speaker 4: that happens which most people wouldn't know about, and that

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Speaker 4: is as water vapor turns into droplets, there's a release

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Speaker 4: of what's called latent heat, and that latent heat drives

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Speaker 4: the flow of moisture upwards into clouds. And so the

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Speaker 4: release of latent heat that makes those clouds seem to

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Speaker 4: boil and that's what drives them. And then of course

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Speaker 4: you get a lot of tumulus associated with that.

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Speaker 1: Can you detect turbulence? Does it look like anything when

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Speaker 1: you're piloting a plane or can any instaments pick up

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Speaker 1: on turbulence.

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Speaker 4: In the daytime, you look out the window and you

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Speaker 4: can see turbulence, provided you're not yourself in cloud. And

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Speaker 4: that's the puzzle with the Singapore Airlines flight that they

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Speaker 4: would have been largely, not entirely, but out of cloud

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Speaker 4: and therefore might have been able to see clouds coming.

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Speaker 5: Now you know that when there's a cloud tower.

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Speaker 4: And you're about to enter it and you're going to

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Speaker 4: get some turbulence, you know that's going to happen because

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Speaker 4: it always happens so visually tough the day. The best

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Speaker 4: idea is to avoid cloud towers just by flying around them,

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Speaker 4: if that's possible. Now, weather radars which exist in airplanes

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Speaker 4: are not really weather radars. They're rain radars, just like

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Speaker 4: the bureaus rain radars which happen around the country. Now,

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Speaker 4: those rain radars, it's the large droplets of water which

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Speaker 4: reflect the radar, so they're only reflecting where the rain is,

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Speaker 4: not where the turbulence is.

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Speaker 1: A lot of the discussion around that Singapore Airlines flight

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Speaker 1: is that they experience something called clear air turbulence. Though

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Speaker 1: what is that and how does that differ from turbulence

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Speaker 1: you experience flying through clouds.

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Speaker 5: Well.

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Speaker 4: Clearer turbulence occurs for two reasons. Actually, One, it occurs

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Speaker 4: because there's a lot of wind shere that is, very

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Speaker 4: strong differences in wind speed and very high wind speeds

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Speaker 4: and very low speeds below, such as the jet stream.

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Speaker 4: Clearer turbulence happens in those areas, and it can't be seen,

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Speaker 4: it can't be detected by the radars that.

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Speaker 5: Are in aeroplanes.

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Speaker 4: Now, the other part of turbulence that happens in clear

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Speaker 4: air is that when the cloud towers are really intense,

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Speaker 4: they create what's called internal waves in the atmosphere around them,

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Speaker 4: and you can get turbulence some distance from a cloud

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Speaker 4: tower in clear air. And so that's also a possibility

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Speaker 4: of what might have happened. We don't know, of course,

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Speaker 4: because the pilots have been careful not to say what

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Speaker 4: exactly happened. Yet I'm sure that it'll be found out

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Speaker 4: by the investigation.

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Speaker 1: I've been watching some videos from some pilots trying to

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Speaker 1: explain all of this, and they do say that turbulence

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Speaker 1: does get worse around the equator. Is that correct and

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Speaker 1: if so, why is that?

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Speaker 4: Yes, it does, and it's because the equator has got

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Speaker 4: the hottest water. In fact, Asia has the warmest sea

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Speaker 4: surface temperatures in the world, and that means that you've

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Speaker 4: got more and more moisture being evaporated, and then you've

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Speaker 4: got more and more energy from that moisture turning into

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Speaker 4: droplets driving these cloud towers upwards. So in general, there's

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Speaker 4: more turbulence around this zone called the intertropical convergence zone

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Speaker 4: at all altitudes and up to as far as the

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Speaker 4: airliners can fly, which is forty thousand feet. You even

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Speaker 4: get cloud towers higher than that in the tropics.

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Speaker 1: So can we presume then that the worst turbulence we'll

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Speaker 1: experience will be on those long haul flights of us

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Speaker 1: going from the southern to the northern or vice versa

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Speaker 1: hemispheres rather than domestic turbulence on average?

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Speaker 4: Yes, But unfortunately turbulence is very hard to predict.

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Speaker 5: If you ever look.

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Speaker 4: At the smoke plumes from a bushfire, for example, you

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Speaker 4: can look and you'll see the smoke plumes billowing one

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Speaker 4: minute and the next minute not. And the same sort

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Speaker 4: of turbulence happens in clouds and even in clear air.

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Speaker 5: Turbulence is a sort.

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Speaker 4: Of predictable on average where it's going to happen, where

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Speaker 4: it's likely, but not in any particular place or time,

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Speaker 4: And that's part of the problem.

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Speaker 5: No one knows where.

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Speaker 4: The most severe turbulence will be in the next five minutes.

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Speaker 4: You can kind of predict from the state of the

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Speaker 4: atmosphere where it's liable to be, but you can't actually

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Speaker 4: predict where that turbulence zone will be.

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Speaker 1: How do pilots navigate turbulence? One pilot was explaining, it's

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Speaker 1: like driving your car down a road full of potholes.

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Speaker 1: You'll attempt to slow your car down, you'll drive around them,

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Speaker 1: but your car is not going to fall through the road.

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Speaker 1: It's just going to be a bit of a bumpy ride.

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Speaker 1: Would you say that's pretty accurate.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's accurate for light turbulence, but not for heavy turbulence.

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Speaker 4: Severe turbulence can actually rip bits off airplanes and cause

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Speaker 4: them to crash, and that's why airliners generally, pilots will

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Speaker 4: always seek to avoid turbulence. Now in severe turbulence, even

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Speaker 4: a light aircraft. I was in an embedded cloud long

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Speaker 4: time back, and I flew into what I thought was

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Speaker 4: a thunderstorm, and it grew very black and very bumpy.

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Speaker 4: My head was being bounced against the side of the cockpit,

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Speaker 4: not against the top because I had my seat belt

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Speaker 4: on tightly. I just turned around and did what I

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Speaker 4: was taught, which is get out as soon as possible

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Speaker 4: by reversing direction and flying the other way. And once

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Speaker 4: I'd done that and the adrenaline disappeared, I found another

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Speaker 4: way to find my way to my destination.

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Speaker 1: Just from your expert opinion, is turbulence going to get

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Speaker 1: worse from here on out as long as climate change

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Speaker 1: is still an issue?

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Speaker 5: Well, climate change will be an issue.

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Speaker 4: Turbulence on average will probably get worse, but that doesn't

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Speaker 4: mean that you or I will experience that. In the

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Speaker 4: process of climate change, certain things happen more slowly than others.

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Speaker 5: There will be.

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Speaker 4: An increase in evaporation and increase in moisture in the air.

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Speaker 4: There will be an increase therefore in rainfall and in

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Speaker 4: the turbulent clouds which occur due to this release of

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Speaker 4: latent heat. Whether it will affect you or me or

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Speaker 4: any other individual person, I don't know. Pilots will always

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Speaker 4: do their best to avoid turbulence. There is equipment, some

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Speaker 4: very fancy lasers which can identify turbulence, but they're really

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Speaker 4: expensive and they're not very effective at distance, so it's

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Speaker 4: unlikely they're going to be put on aeroplanes. So we're

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Speaker 4: going to be left with the pilots having only their

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Speaker 4: rain radars and they're mark one eyeballs as the main

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Speaker 4: instruments to determine turbulence ahead.

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Speaker 1: Well, all this may sound pretty scary. According to data,

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Speaker 1: it's almost unheard of for planes to crash due to turbulence.

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Speaker 1: The cabin and even the plane itself may experience damage.

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Speaker 1: The rough estimate is turbulence costs air lines around five

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Speaker 1: hundred million dollars per year in repairs and damage related delays,

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Speaker 1: but your chance of crashing is almost zero. Their work

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Speaker 1: cases in the twentieth century where turbulence was attributed as

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Speaker 1: the cause of a plane coming down, for example, the

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Speaker 1: nineteen sixty six BOAC Light nine to one one was

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Speaker 1: taking off from Tokyo when clear air turbulence cause structural damage,

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Speaker 1: bringing the plane down near Mount Fuji. With the technological

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Speaker 1: advancements of plane engineering since then, this rare event has

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Speaker 1: become even rarer, and there hasn't been a case of

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Speaker 1: turbulence bringing a plane down in the twenty first century.

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Speaker 1: But it doesn't mean your ride won't be a little

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Speaker 1: bump here into the future. So, as doctor Middleton agrees,

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Speaker 1: you've got to keep that seat belt on. Whether the

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Speaker 1: sign is on or off.

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Speaker 4: Always keep your seat belt on luis if you need to,

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Speaker 4: but always keep it on at all times except when

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Speaker 4: you must move.

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Speaker 5: Around the cabin.

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Speaker 4: I do, and everyone I know that's a pilot does,

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Speaker 4: because they know that turbulence could strike at any time

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Speaker 4: and it's just best to be safe. It's unlikely that

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Speaker 4: the airlines are going to change their policies and mandate

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Speaker 4: people to sit down, because then you've got problems and

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Speaker 4: people needing to go to the toilet and so on

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Speaker 4: and so forth. But it certainly is the best idea

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Speaker 4: just to keep your seatbelt on at all times when

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Speaker 4: you're in your seat.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening with us today. The Quickie is produced

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Speaker 1: im Claire Murphy and our executive producer Callie Rintle, with

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Speaker 1: audio production by Tom lyin

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Speaker 3: H