1 00:00:10,614 --> 00:00:15,254 Speaker 1: You're listening to a Muma Mea podcast. Mumma Mea acknowledges 2 00:00:15,334 --> 00:00:18,134 Speaker 1: the traditional owners of land and waters that this podcast 3 00:00:18,214 --> 00:00:19,054 Speaker 1: is recorded on. 4 00:00:21,774 --> 00:00:24,974 Speaker 2: Hey, I'm Taylor Strano. This is Mumma Mer's twice daily 5 00:00:25,014 --> 00:00:28,614 Speaker 2: news podcast, The Quickie. Israel and Iran have spent the 6 00:00:28,614 --> 00:00:32,414 Speaker 2: weekend trading missile blows, with hundreds dead and global leaders 7 00:00:32,454 --> 00:00:37,014 Speaker 2: scrambling to prevent a broader regional conflict before we learn Moore, 8 00:00:37,214 --> 00:00:40,614 Speaker 2: Here's Clamurphy with the latest from The Quickie newsroom for Tuesday, 9 00:00:40,854 --> 00:00:42,134 Speaker 2: June seventeen. 10 00:00:42,174 --> 00:00:45,414 Speaker 1: Thanks Taylor. The prosecution at the trial against accused killer 11 00:00:45,454 --> 00:00:48,574 Speaker 1: Aaron Patterson have claimed she was lying about serving her 12 00:00:48,654 --> 00:00:51,774 Speaker 1: children leftovers from a death cap mushroom laced lunch to 13 00:00:51,894 --> 00:00:56,054 Speaker 1: deflect blame away from her. Crown prosecutor Nnette Rodgers made 14 00:00:56,054 --> 00:00:59,174 Speaker 1: the claims in her closing address on Monday, as Patterson's 15 00:00:59,214 --> 00:01:02,614 Speaker 1: triple murder trial entered its final stages, telling the jury 16 00:01:02,654 --> 00:01:05,054 Speaker 1: that this was a lie to help cover her tracks. 17 00:01:05,334 --> 00:01:08,774 Speaker 1: Patterson has denied she intentionally poisoned her former in laws 18 00:01:08,814 --> 00:01:11,774 Speaker 1: Down and Gay Patta Dison, Gale's sister Heather, and Heather's 19 00:01:11,854 --> 00:01:15,054 Speaker 1: husband Ian Wilkinson. And has pleaded not guilty to three 20 00:01:15,134 --> 00:01:18,174 Speaker 1: charges of murder and one count of attempted murder. She 21 00:01:18,294 --> 00:01:21,094 Speaker 1: told an emergency department nurse on July thirty one that 22 00:01:21,174 --> 00:01:23,814 Speaker 1: she'd fed her children the leftover beef Wellington with the 23 00:01:23,854 --> 00:01:27,254 Speaker 1: mushrooms scraped off. Doctor Rogers claimed that could not have 24 00:01:27,294 --> 00:01:30,454 Speaker 1: been true, as the children were never unwell and Pattison 25 00:01:30,574 --> 00:01:33,374 Speaker 1: was reluctant to bring them in for medical testing despite 26 00:01:33,494 --> 00:01:36,294 Speaker 1: urging from the doctors and nurses. She claims that the 27 00:01:36,334 --> 00:01:39,534 Speaker 1: only reason Pattison would have lied about the leftovers was 28 00:01:39,534 --> 00:01:42,294 Speaker 1: because she knew she had included death cap mushrooms in 29 00:01:42,334 --> 00:01:44,334 Speaker 1: the lunch, and that she thought if she said she 30 00:01:44,454 --> 00:01:47,454 Speaker 1: also fed it to her children, it would deflect any suspicion. 31 00:01:47,814 --> 00:01:51,454 Speaker 1: The prosecutor also claims Patterson lied about sourcing the mushrooms 32 00:01:51,494 --> 00:01:54,494 Speaker 1: from an Asian grocer in Melbourne. Doctor Rogers told the 33 00:01:54,574 --> 00:01:57,734 Speaker 1: jury Patterson gave ten different accounts about where she bought 34 00:01:57,734 --> 00:02:00,094 Speaker 1: the mushrooms and the days after the lunch, with the 35 00:02:00,134 --> 00:02:04,014 Speaker 1: locations changing repeatedly. She said Patterson appeared to have a 36 00:02:04,094 --> 00:02:07,734 Speaker 1: remarkable memory while giving evidence at her trial, remembering what 37 00:02:07,854 --> 00:02:10,094 Speaker 1: day of the week April twenty eight fell on two 38 00:02:10,174 --> 00:02:13,214 Speaker 1: years ago. Yet she said in August twenty twenty three 39 00:02:13,574 --> 00:02:16,134 Speaker 1: she could not recall the shop or even the suburb 40 00:02:16,174 --> 00:02:19,454 Speaker 1: where she purchased the mushrooms. Doctor Rogers said it's simply 41 00:02:19,494 --> 00:02:23,414 Speaker 1: beggars belief. Doctor Rogers claimed Pattison knew the mushrooms did 42 00:02:23,414 --> 00:02:26,014 Speaker 1: not come from an Asian grosser, and she continued to 43 00:02:26,054 --> 00:02:29,414 Speaker 1: peddle the false story to deflect blame. The prosecutor will 44 00:02:29,414 --> 00:02:33,694 Speaker 1: continue her final address today before Patterson's barrister, Colin Mandy, begins. 45 00:02:34,494 --> 00:02:36,854 Speaker 1: The G seven summit is now underway in Canada, with 46 00:02:36,894 --> 00:02:39,934 Speaker 1: world leaders, including US President Donald Trump, calling for an 47 00:02:40,094 --> 00:02:43,134 Speaker 1: end to the conflict between Israel and Iran. Trump told 48 00:02:43,174 --> 00:02:45,654 Speaker 1: reporters that the two countries should talk, and they should 49 00:02:45,694 --> 00:02:49,294 Speaker 1: talk immediately. The UK Prime Minister Kirs Starmer said all 50 00:02:49,294 --> 00:02:51,414 Speaker 1: the G seven leaders agree they have to find a 51 00:02:51,414 --> 00:02:54,654 Speaker 1: way to de escalate the situation because the Israeli I 52 00:02:54,734 --> 00:02:57,814 Speaker 1: Ran conflict risks him, flaming the tinderbox of the Gaza 53 00:02:57,814 --> 00:03:01,574 Speaker 1: strip and hurting the global economy. Israeli forces stepped up 54 00:03:01,614 --> 00:03:04,814 Speaker 1: their bombardment of Iranian cities over the past twenty four hours, 55 00:03:05,014 --> 00:03:08,614 Speaker 1: while Iran proved capable of piercing Israeli air defenses with 56 00:03:08,694 --> 00:03:12,534 Speaker 1: one of its most successful volleys yet of retaliatory missile strikes. 57 00:03:12,774 --> 00:03:15,694 Speaker 1: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney welcomed Donald Trump to the 58 00:03:15,734 --> 00:03:18,494 Speaker 1: meeting the US President, saying it was a mistake to 59 00:03:18,574 --> 00:03:21,454 Speaker 1: remove Russia from the then G eight in twenty fourteen 60 00:03:21,854 --> 00:03:25,854 Speaker 1: over their annexation of Crimea, saying it had destabilized the world, 61 00:03:26,174 --> 00:03:28,814 Speaker 1: also suggesting that they should add China to the group. 62 00:03:29,014 --> 00:03:31,094 Speaker 1: Mister Trump also made it clear that this meeting for 63 00:03:31,174 --> 00:03:34,014 Speaker 1: him was going to be mostly focused on trade, mister 64 00:03:34,094 --> 00:03:35,974 Speaker 1: Carney saying that they are gathered at one of those 65 00:03:36,014 --> 00:03:38,814 Speaker 1: turning points in history where the world is more divided 66 00:03:38,894 --> 00:03:41,734 Speaker 1: and dangerous. He could then be heard saying, mister President, 67 00:03:41,854 --> 00:03:44,894 Speaker 1: I think I've answered a lot of questions already. A 68 00:03:45,014 --> 00:03:48,534 Speaker 1: juror has been dismissed from seawan Didtycombe's sex trafficking trial, 69 00:03:48,614 --> 00:03:51,814 Speaker 1: despite defense objections that the dismissal would reduce the racial 70 00:03:51,814 --> 00:03:55,494 Speaker 1: diversity of the panel. U S District Judge Aaron Subramanian 71 00:03:55,574 --> 00:03:58,854 Speaker 1: said the juror's inconsistent answers to questions about where he 72 00:03:58,934 --> 00:04:02,814 Speaker 1: lives raises questions about his honesty and could taint a verdict. 73 00:04:03,054 --> 00:04:06,854 Speaker 1: Subramanian said he took defense concerns about race seriously. In 74 00:04:06,894 --> 00:04:09,334 Speaker 1: a Sunday night court filing, defense lawyers wrote that the 75 00:04:09,574 --> 00:04:12,014 Speaker 1: duror in question was one of two black men on 76 00:04:12,054 --> 00:04:14,694 Speaker 1: the jury, saying the fairness of the trial depends in 77 00:04:14,734 --> 00:04:17,614 Speaker 1: part on having jurors with backgrounds similar to mister Combs 78 00:04:17,894 --> 00:04:20,374 Speaker 1: and share their perspectives on the evidence with other jurors 79 00:04:20,414 --> 00:04:24,254 Speaker 1: from diverse backgrounds. During deliberations, the black male duror will 80 00:04:24,294 --> 00:04:27,054 Speaker 1: be replaced by a white male who'd been an alternate juror. 81 00:04:27,454 --> 00:04:31,014 Speaker 1: Combs has pleaded not guilty to racketeering and sex trafficking charges. 82 00:04:31,254 --> 00:04:34,574 Speaker 1: Prosecutors say he coerced women over two decades to take 83 00:04:34,614 --> 00:04:37,814 Speaker 1: part in drug field sexual performances with male sex workers, 84 00:04:38,094 --> 00:04:41,214 Speaker 1: sometimes known as free coofs. The defense says the sexual 85 00:04:41,214 --> 00:04:45,334 Speaker 1: activity described by prosecutors was consensual. Lawyers for Combs have 86 00:04:45,414 --> 00:04:48,654 Speaker 1: argued that their client was unfairly targeted because of his race. 87 00:04:49,014 --> 00:04:51,254 Speaker 1: Prosecutors said in a Monday court filing that it was 88 00:04:51,294 --> 00:04:53,574 Speaker 1: baseless for the defense to suggest that they had a 89 00:04:53,694 --> 00:04:57,734 Speaker 1: racial motivation to seek the jurors dismissal. Singer Justin Bieber 90 00:04:57,774 --> 00:05:00,214 Speaker 1: has told people to stop asking him how he's doing, 91 00:05:00,334 --> 00:05:03,094 Speaker 1: as he posted a text exchange with an unknown friend 92 00:05:03,094 --> 00:05:06,094 Speaker 1: who he appears to cut ties with. Fans have been 93 00:05:06,174 --> 00:05:08,534 Speaker 1: concerned for the Baby singer after he appeared to be 94 00:05:08,574 --> 00:05:13,014 Speaker 1: struggling in recent months, sharing worrying posts online, including this 95 00:05:13,134 --> 00:05:16,174 Speaker 1: recent rand where he tells his followers people keep telling 96 00:05:16,214 --> 00:05:17,974 Speaker 1: me to heal. Don't you think if I could have 97 00:05:18,014 --> 00:05:21,134 Speaker 1: fixed myself, I would have already? He says. I know 98 00:05:21,254 --> 00:05:24,254 Speaker 1: I'm broken, I know I have anger issues. He also 99 00:05:24,334 --> 00:05:27,014 Speaker 1: posted a text exchange with an unnamed friend where he 100 00:05:27,054 --> 00:05:30,134 Speaker 1: tells them I would never suppress my emotions for someone. 101 00:05:30,294 --> 00:05:33,054 Speaker 1: Conflict is a part of a relationship. If you don't 102 00:05:33,174 --> 00:05:35,974 Speaker 1: like my anger, you don't like me. He then says, 103 00:05:36,094 --> 00:05:38,654 Speaker 1: my anger is a response to pain I have been through. 104 00:05:38,934 --> 00:05:42,694 Speaker 1: Asking a traumatized person not to be traumatized is simply mean. 105 00:05:43,014 --> 00:05:45,254 Speaker 1: He then appears to tell the friend there over. The 106 00:05:45,294 --> 00:05:48,854 Speaker 1: friend responds saying he's blocking him. Fans responded, calling on 107 00:05:48,934 --> 00:05:51,334 Speaker 1: him to take a break from social media and Hollywood 108 00:05:51,334 --> 00:05:52,094 Speaker 1: life in general. 109 00:05:52,774 --> 00:06:02,294 Speaker 2: Thanks Claire. Next, the escalating Middle East crisis. The Middle 110 00:06:02,294 --> 00:06:05,494 Speaker 2: East is on the edge after Israel and Iran began 111 00:06:05,534 --> 00:06:09,334 Speaker 2: trading missile blows on Friday, with the death toll continuing 112 00:06:09,334 --> 00:06:13,174 Speaker 2: to rise now. Iran's Health Ministry reports two hundred and 113 00:06:13,214 --> 00:06:16,854 Speaker 2: twenty four people have been killed in Israeli strikes, with 114 00:06:16,974 --> 00:06:21,654 Speaker 2: more than ninety percent of casualties reportedly civilians. Meanwhile, at 115 00:06:21,734 --> 00:06:26,414 Speaker 2: least thirteen people, including children, have died in Israel. This 116 00:06:26,534 --> 00:06:29,454 Speaker 2: is a fast developing story, and if you're thinking how 117 00:06:29,494 --> 00:06:32,214 Speaker 2: the hell did we get here, settle in. We've got 118 00:06:32,254 --> 00:06:37,134 Speaker 2: the details. The conflict began when Israel launched surprise attacks 119 00:06:37,214 --> 00:06:40,734 Speaker 2: aimed at wiping out Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, 120 00:06:41,134 --> 00:06:46,774 Speaker 2: an assault that succeeded in damaging nuclear sites. Iran vowed 121 00:06:46,854 --> 00:06:50,334 Speaker 2: to open the gates of Hell in retaliation, and has 122 00:06:50,374 --> 00:06:54,534 Speaker 2: since launched its first daylight missile attacks, with explosions shaking 123 00:06:54,534 --> 00:06:57,734 Speaker 2: the capital of Tel Aviv and residential areas in Haifa. 124 00:06:58,574 --> 00:07:02,414 Speaker 2: The impact is already being felt globally. Oil prices have 125 00:07:02,574 --> 00:07:05,974 Speaker 2: surged more than seven percent since Friday, with futures in 126 00:07:06,054 --> 00:07:09,494 Speaker 2: global benchmark Brent crude trading above seventy four dollars a bat. 127 00:07:10,454 --> 00:07:13,174 Speaker 2: There are also growing fears around could close the Strait 128 00:07:13,214 --> 00:07:17,254 Speaker 2: of Hormones, a crucial route for multiple oil producers, which 129 00:07:17,294 --> 00:07:21,654 Speaker 2: could potentially drive prices even higher and impact global inflation. 130 00:07:22,534 --> 00:07:25,094 Speaker 2: If you were waiting for Trump to insert himself into 131 00:07:25,094 --> 00:07:28,454 Speaker 2: the story, now's the time. The US president has lorded 132 00:07:28,534 --> 00:07:33,734 Speaker 2: Israel's offensive while denying Iranian allegations of US involvement. However, 133 00:07:34,214 --> 00:07:37,814 Speaker 2: US officials do confirm they help shoot down Iranian missiles 134 00:07:37,894 --> 00:07:41,254 Speaker 2: headed toward Israel. As world leaders gather at the JUG 135 00:07:41,374 --> 00:07:44,614 Speaker 2: seven summit in Canada this week, Australia's acting Prime Minister, 136 00:07:44,694 --> 00:07:48,214 Speaker 2: Richard Miles has joined other nations in urging for diplomacy 137 00:07:48,254 --> 00:07:52,334 Speaker 2: and dialogue, warning of the risks of a broader regional conflict. 138 00:07:53,094 --> 00:07:56,534 Speaker 2: Australia has issued do not travel warnings for both countries, 139 00:07:56,894 --> 00:08:00,814 Speaker 2: with thousands of ossies currently in the region. Foreign Minister 140 00:08:00,854 --> 00:08:03,974 Speaker 2: Pennywong has said the Federal government is currently working to 141 00:08:04,134 --> 00:08:07,654 Speaker 2: arrange repatriation flights for Australians trapped in the Middle East 142 00:08:07,934 --> 00:08:10,734 Speaker 2: when it's safe to do so. She said, three hundred 143 00:08:10,734 --> 00:08:13,334 Speaker 2: and fifty ossie's in Iran and three hundred people in 144 00:08:13,454 --> 00:08:16,774 Speaker 2: Israel have registered for assistance to get out of the region. 145 00:08:17,094 --> 00:08:20,294 Speaker 2: To help us understand this escalating situation, We're joined by 146 00:08:20,334 --> 00:08:25,654 Speaker 2: senior lecturer in International Relations at Flinders University doctor Jesse Ganawa. Jess, 147 00:08:25,894 --> 00:08:28,534 Speaker 2: can you help us understand what's triggered the latest escalation. 148 00:08:29,094 --> 00:08:33,094 Speaker 2: It's been reported that Israel said these strikes were preemptive. 149 00:08:33,774 --> 00:08:36,054 Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think there are some sort of more 150 00:08:36,654 --> 00:08:39,974 Speaker 3: short term reasons and some medium to longer term reasons 151 00:08:39,974 --> 00:08:42,654 Speaker 3: in terms of the context. If we want to look 152 00:08:42,774 --> 00:08:46,614 Speaker 3: more medium term, we can trace back what's happening now 153 00:08:47,134 --> 00:08:50,374 Speaker 3: to all of the events that have unfolded since those 154 00:08:50,934 --> 00:08:55,134 Speaker 3: October seven, twenty twenty three attacks from Her Mask into Israel, 155 00:08:55,374 --> 00:08:58,014 Speaker 3: and then what has happened since then in terms of 156 00:08:58,014 --> 00:09:00,574 Speaker 3: the way that Israel has been operating, not only in 157 00:09:00,574 --> 00:09:02,414 Speaker 3: the war with Her Masks, but also within the region. 158 00:09:02,814 --> 00:09:05,774 Speaker 3: So importantly, what we've seen since that time is that 159 00:09:05,854 --> 00:09:10,774 Speaker 3: Iran's proxy forces in the region have been gly degraded. 160 00:09:10,894 --> 00:09:15,174 Speaker 3: So we've seen Hesbellah pretty much decimated by Israel as 161 00:09:15,294 --> 00:09:19,814 Speaker 3: a force that has capability to strike against Israel. We've 162 00:09:19,854 --> 00:09:23,534 Speaker 3: seen Hamas of course severely degraded since that time, and 163 00:09:23,574 --> 00:09:26,094 Speaker 3: a lot of the Hamas leadership have now been killed. 164 00:09:26,454 --> 00:09:29,454 Speaker 3: And then we've also seen the Hussies in Yemen quite 165 00:09:29,494 --> 00:09:33,534 Speaker 3: severely degraded as well. So we're seeing Iran probably in 166 00:09:33,534 --> 00:09:36,694 Speaker 3: the weakest state it's been for many years, if not decade. 167 00:09:36,774 --> 00:09:38,814 Speaker 3: So that's the kind of more medium term reason I 168 00:09:38,854 --> 00:09:42,254 Speaker 3: think why Israel thinks there's an opportunity now for them 169 00:09:42,294 --> 00:09:46,334 Speaker 3: to strike inside Iran, and Iran will have limited capabilities 170 00:09:46,374 --> 00:09:49,734 Speaker 3: to strike back. The more short term reasons I think 171 00:09:49,774 --> 00:09:53,214 Speaker 3: are around the direct talks have been taking place between 172 00:09:53,414 --> 00:09:56,854 Speaker 3: the US and Iran, and I think that has destabilized 173 00:09:56,894 --> 00:10:00,174 Speaker 3: the Israeli government to some extent that they don't really 174 00:10:00,454 --> 00:10:04,134 Speaker 3: want to see direct interactions between the US and Iran 175 00:10:04,174 --> 00:10:06,174 Speaker 3: no matter what happens, whether it does end up being 176 00:10:06,174 --> 00:10:08,654 Speaker 3: in agreement or not. And I think they are also 177 00:10:08,734 --> 00:10:12,494 Speaker 3: nervous that might be quite close to developing a nuclear weapon. 178 00:10:12,814 --> 00:10:16,334 Speaker 3: And that's the only kind of explicit direct reasons that's 179 00:10:16,374 --> 00:10:19,494 Speaker 3: been given to the current attacks. And then finally, I 180 00:10:19,534 --> 00:10:23,174 Speaker 3: think there's a domestic reason for the Israeli government from 181 00:10:23,214 --> 00:10:27,454 Speaker 3: inside Israel. So I think Israeli Prime Minister binimin Netna, 182 00:10:27,534 --> 00:10:30,974 Speaker 3: who whilst he does have some support from a significant 183 00:10:30,974 --> 00:10:35,054 Speaker 3: constituency of Israeli population, there's also a large proportion of 184 00:10:35,054 --> 00:10:37,294 Speaker 3: the Israeli population who don't like him and are very 185 00:10:37,294 --> 00:10:40,294 Speaker 3: critical of him and don't give him that political support 186 00:10:40,374 --> 00:10:42,334 Speaker 3: that he would like to see. So I think that 187 00:10:42,374 --> 00:10:45,094 Speaker 3: for bib netnya who, one area where he tends to 188 00:10:45,134 --> 00:10:49,414 Speaker 3: do well domestically is on security, so showing himself to 189 00:10:49,494 --> 00:10:52,854 Speaker 3: be strong against external threats, and as we know from 190 00:10:52,894 --> 00:10:55,814 Speaker 3: political science, when there are external threats on the country, 191 00:10:56,254 --> 00:10:59,014 Speaker 3: citizens tend to rally around their leaders. So I think 192 00:10:59,054 --> 00:11:01,814 Speaker 3: that bnimin Netna who is also counting on a kind 193 00:11:01,854 --> 00:11:05,254 Speaker 3: of a rally effect within the Israeli domestic context from 194 00:11:05,294 --> 00:11:06,054 Speaker 3: these strikes. 195 00:11:06,174 --> 00:11:10,814 Speaker 2: Based on that, then Jess Israel are doing a good 196 00:11:10,894 --> 00:11:14,374 Speaker 2: job at wiping out these terror groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, 197 00:11:14,374 --> 00:11:17,214 Speaker 2: who we've not really heard too too much about in 198 00:11:17,254 --> 00:11:21,094 Speaker 2: the news recently. Why are they still pursuing these strikes 199 00:11:21,134 --> 00:11:24,254 Speaker 2: against places like Iran and obviously in Gaza that's a 200 00:11:24,294 --> 00:11:26,334 Speaker 2: little bit different. But why do they keep going if 201 00:11:26,334 --> 00:11:29,254 Speaker 2: they claim to be wiping out the terror groups? 202 00:11:29,494 --> 00:11:32,574 Speaker 3: I think first of all, Israel sees that Iran is 203 00:11:32,694 --> 00:11:35,854 Speaker 3: kind of the ultimate source of the funding for these groups. 204 00:11:35,894 --> 00:11:39,134 Speaker 3: So Iran has been funding the whosi's in Yemen, they 205 00:11:39,214 --> 00:11:42,734 Speaker 3: were the main funding backer for Hezbollah in Lebanon, and 206 00:11:42,734 --> 00:11:46,854 Speaker 3: then they also gave significant funding to Hamas in Gaza, 207 00:11:46,934 --> 00:11:48,734 Speaker 3: So I think that in some ways Israel sees that 208 00:11:48,774 --> 00:11:50,774 Speaker 3: if they want to trace the funding back to the source, 209 00:11:51,214 --> 00:11:53,694 Speaker 3: that does ultimately kind of go back to Iran, and 210 00:11:53,734 --> 00:11:57,694 Speaker 3: they're happy to see Iran degraded and weakened in terms 211 00:11:57,694 --> 00:12:02,294 Speaker 3: of their regional power. I think that when we're asking 212 00:12:02,374 --> 00:12:06,494 Speaker 3: why is Israel still continuing with military operations, I think 213 00:12:06,534 --> 00:12:09,414 Speaker 3: that part of this is about Israel not necessarily having 214 00:12:10,014 --> 00:12:14,814 Speaker 3: a clear end goal besides a military victory in terms 215 00:12:14,894 --> 00:12:17,974 Speaker 3: of the conflicts that have been ongoing since October seventh, 216 00:12:18,054 --> 00:12:20,094 Speaker 3: twenty twenty three, and of course also before that, but 217 00:12:20,174 --> 00:12:23,854 Speaker 3: in an escalated way since then. So we're seeing in 218 00:12:23,974 --> 00:12:28,214 Speaker 3: Gaza Israel continuing with military operations and it's not really 219 00:12:28,254 --> 00:12:30,294 Speaker 3: clear out what is the end point to that, what 220 00:12:30,494 --> 00:12:34,334 Speaker 3: is the strategy for the day after the military campaign stopped? 221 00:12:34,734 --> 00:12:38,294 Speaker 3: And I'm not confident that Binniminettnya, who's government the current 222 00:12:38,374 --> 00:12:42,214 Speaker 3: quite sort of nationalists Israeli government, has a plan for 223 00:12:42,254 --> 00:12:46,494 Speaker 3: the day after. And similarly with Iran, I think that 224 00:12:47,094 --> 00:12:51,934 Speaker 3: Israel is more keen to pursue a military strategy where 225 00:12:52,374 --> 00:12:55,294 Speaker 3: they would want to see some sort of military win 226 00:12:55,894 --> 00:13:00,294 Speaker 3: over Iran, rather than thinking about are there also other options? 227 00:13:00,334 --> 00:13:02,814 Speaker 3: Are there political tracks that could be pursued? And I 228 00:13:02,814 --> 00:13:05,934 Speaker 3: think when you're primarily focused only on a military option, 229 00:13:06,534 --> 00:13:10,414 Speaker 3: then you do tend to continue, maybe even past where 230 00:13:10,854 --> 00:13:14,134 Speaker 3: you've already shown that you have greater military capability than 231 00:13:14,174 --> 00:13:15,014 Speaker 3: the other side. 232 00:13:15,294 --> 00:13:18,054 Speaker 2: I've been reading online there's the school of thought that 233 00:13:18,254 --> 00:13:21,814 Speaker 2: this latest attack on Iran, in conjunction with everything that 234 00:13:21,854 --> 00:13:23,614 Speaker 2: you've just mentioned, there is also a bit of a 235 00:13:23,654 --> 00:13:27,814 Speaker 2: distraction from some nations recently sanctioning Israel. We know that 236 00:13:27,854 --> 00:13:31,534 Speaker 2: Australia finally imposed sanctions on two Israeli ministers. They joined 237 00:13:31,534 --> 00:13:34,454 Speaker 2: a bunch of other countries and doing so. And the 238 00:13:34,534 --> 00:13:38,694 Speaker 2: idea is that Israel has attacked Iran because some nations 239 00:13:38,694 --> 00:13:42,654 Speaker 2: have started making headway of publicly denouncing their actions in Gaza. 240 00:13:42,734 --> 00:13:44,494 Speaker 2: What do you make of that thought? 241 00:13:45,254 --> 00:13:47,694 Speaker 3: I think that there could be something to that that 242 00:13:47,774 --> 00:13:51,814 Speaker 3: this is Israel ramping up military conflict, you know, partly 243 00:13:52,094 --> 00:13:56,854 Speaker 3: opportunistically seeing Iran as greatly weakened, but partly also perhaps 244 00:13:57,334 --> 00:14:00,734 Speaker 3: trying to swing the narrative back around to one that 245 00:14:00,974 --> 00:14:05,214 Speaker 3: is about military conflict between Israel and Iran as opposed 246 00:14:05,294 --> 00:14:09,294 Speaker 3: to being about an ongoing humanitarian situation in Gaza. And 247 00:14:09,734 --> 00:14:12,494 Speaker 3: whilst they think that the sanctioning of the two specific 248 00:14:12,614 --> 00:14:16,174 Speaker 3: ministers probably wouldn't have a huge impact within the Israeli 249 00:14:16,254 --> 00:14:20,094 Speaker 3: domestic context, the fact that countries like France, like the UK, 250 00:14:20,334 --> 00:14:23,574 Speaker 3: like Canada were talking about the potential of broader sanctions 251 00:14:23,974 --> 00:14:27,294 Speaker 3: that would potentially make the Israeli government a little bit nervous, 252 00:14:27,374 --> 00:14:31,174 Speaker 3: because if there are broader sanctions against the entire country, 253 00:14:31,614 --> 00:14:34,694 Speaker 3: that could ultimately end up having an impact. And then 254 00:14:34,734 --> 00:14:36,374 Speaker 3: I think the second thing that would have been making 255 00:14:36,414 --> 00:14:38,934 Speaker 3: the Israeli government a bit nervous, as I mentioned earlier, 256 00:14:39,454 --> 00:14:43,534 Speaker 3: is the way that Trump has been operating. Yes, Trump 257 00:14:43,614 --> 00:14:47,494 Speaker 3: definitely says that he supports Israel, but he has also 258 00:14:47,534 --> 00:14:50,094 Speaker 3: been holding direct talks with Iran, which is in some 259 00:14:50,214 --> 00:14:53,334 Speaker 3: ways an unusual move to make in the eyes of 260 00:14:53,334 --> 00:14:58,134 Speaker 3: the Israeli government. And he's also been trying to make 261 00:14:58,214 --> 00:15:01,134 Speaker 3: friends with various actors all around the Middle East region. 262 00:15:01,574 --> 00:15:04,254 Speaker 3: So I think that those two things would possibly be 263 00:15:04,254 --> 00:15:07,374 Speaker 3: making the Israeli government somewhat nervous, and maybe he's trying 264 00:15:07,414 --> 00:15:11,374 Speaker 3: to swing the narrative back around to this military confrontation 265 00:15:11,614 --> 00:15:12,894 Speaker 3: between Israel and Iran. 266 00:15:13,574 --> 00:15:16,334 Speaker 2: I'm glad that you bring Trump up, because while Israel 267 00:15:16,374 --> 00:15:18,894 Speaker 2: and Iran a going tip for tat on exchanging fire, 268 00:15:19,014 --> 00:15:21,934 Speaker 2: Trump is always playing a little bit to both sides. 269 00:15:22,294 --> 00:15:24,854 Speaker 2: We saw earlier this week the US official told the 270 00:15:24,894 --> 00:15:28,254 Speaker 2: Associated Press that Trump actually vetoed a plot to kill 271 00:15:28,254 --> 00:15:31,494 Speaker 2: the Uranian Supreme leader Ayatola Ala KAHMANI. Why does he 272 00:15:31,574 --> 00:15:33,294 Speaker 2: actually get a say in that or does he get 273 00:15:33,294 --> 00:15:35,254 Speaker 2: a saved? Why has that become public knowledge? 274 00:15:36,014 --> 00:15:40,974 Speaker 3: So the United States remains one of the most powerful 275 00:15:41,014 --> 00:15:46,374 Speaker 3: actors internationally, both economically, militarily and politically. So even though 276 00:15:47,054 --> 00:15:51,494 Speaker 3: we're seeing in President Trump's second administration a somewhat sort 277 00:15:51,494 --> 00:15:53,854 Speaker 3: of different approach to foreign policy, there's a lot of 278 00:15:53,934 --> 00:15:56,414 Speaker 3: uncertainty around that. Some people have described it as a 279 00:15:56,414 --> 00:16:01,294 Speaker 3: bit chaotic without a clear strategic agenda. But nevertheless, the 280 00:16:01,414 --> 00:16:07,294 Speaker 3: US still has the largest military capability internationally. So just 281 00:16:07,534 --> 00:16:10,574 Speaker 3: by that fact alone, if they decide to enter into 282 00:16:10,734 --> 00:16:15,254 Speaker 3: any conflict on the global stage, they will be decisive 283 00:16:15,334 --> 00:16:16,814 Speaker 3: in the way they enter into it. So I think 284 00:16:16,814 --> 00:16:19,574 Speaker 3: that that's what gives him a say. I think that 285 00:16:19,734 --> 00:16:23,614 Speaker 3: Trump himself is not keen at all to see the 286 00:16:23,734 --> 00:16:28,694 Speaker 3: US involved in a foreign military confrontation, and he's definitely 287 00:16:28,694 --> 00:16:31,134 Speaker 3: not keen for US boots on the ground to get involved. 288 00:16:31,494 --> 00:16:35,094 Speaker 3: He's mostly concerned about his domestic audience. He's mostly concerned 289 00:16:35,094 --> 00:16:39,014 Speaker 3: about his core support base. War is inevitably costly, it 290 00:16:39,094 --> 00:16:41,854 Speaker 3: tends to drag on more than leaders expect. It's not 291 00:16:41,934 --> 00:16:44,614 Speaker 3: the kind of thing that's going to give him quick wins. 292 00:16:44,934 --> 00:16:47,414 Speaker 3: So I think that Trump is more looking to show 293 00:16:47,494 --> 00:16:50,494 Speaker 3: himself as someone who can make deals, who can almost 294 00:16:50,574 --> 00:16:53,694 Speaker 3: like force countries to come out with negotiated agreements, which 295 00:16:54,054 --> 00:16:56,934 Speaker 3: he was hoping to show. But I think that Trump, 296 00:16:57,174 --> 00:17:01,614 Speaker 3: whilst he will broadly back Israel, he's not going to 297 00:17:02,014 --> 00:17:06,014 Speaker 3: try to endorse any further escalation of a fight between 298 00:17:06,214 --> 00:17:09,014 Speaker 3: Israel and Iran, and he definitely isn't going to want 299 00:17:09,214 --> 00:17:11,294 Speaker 3: for the US to get directly involved. 300 00:17:11,814 --> 00:17:15,254 Speaker 2: What are the possible scenarios from here? Is there a 301 00:17:15,334 --> 00:17:17,494 Speaker 2: path to de escalation or do we just have to 302 00:17:17,574 --> 00:17:20,374 Speaker 2: watch as more chaos and strikes unfold. 303 00:17:20,734 --> 00:17:23,414 Speaker 3: There's always a path to de escalation if there's the 304 00:17:23,454 --> 00:17:26,534 Speaker 3: political wills, and I'm just not sure whether there is 305 00:17:26,574 --> 00:17:28,694 Speaker 3: at the moment. So I think of a lot of 306 00:17:28,694 --> 00:17:32,494 Speaker 3: what happens from now on depends on what Israel's end 307 00:17:32,574 --> 00:17:35,214 Speaker 3: game is, or what their agenda is in terms of 308 00:17:35,254 --> 00:17:38,534 Speaker 3: the extent to which they're willing to continue with these 309 00:17:38,574 --> 00:17:41,014 Speaker 3: strikes on Iran. I think as long as Israel continues 310 00:17:41,054 --> 00:17:44,854 Speaker 3: to strikes on Iran, Iran will continue to respond, and 311 00:17:44,894 --> 00:17:47,294 Speaker 3: we'll see this tit for tat, which does have the 312 00:17:47,294 --> 00:17:51,654 Speaker 3: potential to escalate further drag in the US at some stage, potentially, 313 00:17:51,734 --> 00:17:54,214 Speaker 3: which would be putting it on a whole other level 314 00:17:54,214 --> 00:17:57,094 Speaker 3: of conflict. So I think it depends whether Israel is 315 00:17:57,134 --> 00:18:00,934 Speaker 3: just trying to degrade Iran's nuclear capabilities and then essentially 316 00:18:00,974 --> 00:18:04,934 Speaker 3: withdraw unilaterally, or whether they're really have their eyes on 317 00:18:05,014 --> 00:18:06,894 Speaker 3: regime change in Iran, which would be a whole other 318 00:18:06,934 --> 00:18:09,374 Speaker 3: ballgame and would take a lot longer and there would 319 00:18:09,374 --> 00:18:12,534 Speaker 3: be huge potential for escalation. I think another thing to 320 00:18:12,574 --> 00:18:15,974 Speaker 3: watch is whether Iran just keeps striking towards Israel or 321 00:18:15,974 --> 00:18:19,534 Speaker 3: whether they actually go for US military personnel and US 322 00:18:19,614 --> 00:18:22,334 Speaker 3: bases in the area. I don't think that they will 323 00:18:22,374 --> 00:18:25,974 Speaker 3: go the US military bases because they would understand that 324 00:18:25,974 --> 00:18:28,614 Speaker 3: that means bringing the US directly into the conflict. But 325 00:18:28,774 --> 00:18:32,134 Speaker 3: if they do, Trump would almost be left with no 326 00:18:32,294 --> 00:18:36,774 Speaker 3: option but to respond as the US coming more directly 327 00:18:36,814 --> 00:18:40,254 Speaker 3: into the conflict, So those two things could mean much 328 00:18:40,454 --> 00:18:44,454 Speaker 3: larger escalation. Otherwise, if we see Israel sort of unilaterally 329 00:18:44,574 --> 00:18:47,094 Speaker 3: cease the strikes within a week or so, I would 330 00:18:47,094 --> 00:18:50,734 Speaker 3: imagine that this will ultimately die down because definitely Iran 331 00:18:50,814 --> 00:18:53,374 Speaker 3: doesn't want to see an escalation of that direct military 332 00:18:53,374 --> 00:18:56,454 Speaker 3: conflict with Israel because they know that they're quite militarily 333 00:18:56,614 --> 00:18:57,534 Speaker 3: weak at the moment. 334 00:18:58,254 --> 00:19:00,374 Speaker 2: Thanks for taking some time to feed your mind with 335 00:19:00,454 --> 00:19:03,454 Speaker 2: us today. The quickie is produced by me Tailorstrano and 336 00:19:03,534 --> 00:19:07,174 Speaker 2: Claire Murphy, with audio production by Lou Hill. MoMA MIAs 337 00:19:07,174 --> 00:19:10,614 Speaker 2: Studios are styled with furniture from Fenton and Fenton. Visit 338 00:19:10,694 --> 00:19:13,374 Speaker 2: Fenton and Fenton dot com, dot a U