1 00:00:06,415 --> 00:00:18,174 Speaker 1: You're listening to i'm Ama Mia podcast. After weeks of 2 00:00:18,215 --> 00:00:21,415 Speaker 1: military build up and public threats and retaliatory language from 3 00:00:21,455 --> 00:00:24,855 Speaker 1: the American and Iranian leaders, Israel and the US launched 4 00:00:24,855 --> 00:00:28,295 Speaker 1: a coordinated attack on Iran over the weekend. The world 5 00:00:28,455 --> 00:00:31,295 Speaker 1: knew it was coming. US President Donald Trump had sent, 6 00:00:31,335 --> 00:00:34,015 Speaker 1: in his own words, Anna Marta to the region to 7 00:00:34,095 --> 00:00:36,854 Speaker 1: pressure Iran into signing a deal to hold all plans 8 00:00:36,854 --> 00:00:40,255 Speaker 1: for nuclear weapons creation. But as talks broke down last week, 9 00:00:40,375 --> 00:00:44,095 Speaker 1: tensions escalated, culminating in strikes that hit major targets and 10 00:00:44,135 --> 00:00:47,414 Speaker 1: took the life of Iran's leader. So what implications does 11 00:00:47,455 --> 00:00:50,054 Speaker 1: this have for the region, for those countries like Australia 12 00:00:50,055 --> 00:00:52,854 Speaker 1: who backed the US in this military operation, and for 13 00:00:52,894 --> 00:00:55,775 Speaker 1: those who share borders with Iran? And will the regime 14 00:00:55,855 --> 00:00:58,215 Speaker 1: change that the people of Iran have been protesting and 15 00:00:58,255 --> 00:01:00,935 Speaker 1: putting their lives on the line for be the solution 16 00:01:01,015 --> 00:01:03,815 Speaker 1: they've been waiting for. Before we get into that, he's 17 00:01:03,815 --> 00:01:07,854 Speaker 1: the letters from the Quickie newsroom Monday to Australian Travel 18 00:01:07,895 --> 00:01:12,095 Speaker 1: Industry Association Chief Executive Dean long As worn travelers transitting 19 00:01:12,135 --> 00:01:14,735 Speaker 1: through the Middle East to expect delays and re routing 20 00:01:14,855 --> 00:01:18,455 Speaker 1: for the foreseeable future. Mister Long said the sheer volume 21 00:01:18,495 --> 00:01:22,015 Speaker 1: of the backlog, estimated at over two hundred thousand stranded 22 00:01:22,015 --> 00:01:26,054 Speaker 1: passengers globally, will take weeks, not days to fully clear. 23 00:01:26,455 --> 00:01:30,295 Speaker 1: Morning Australians not to cancel flights, even to nations upgraded 24 00:01:30,335 --> 00:01:33,575 Speaker 1: to do not travel wardings, saying let the airline or 25 00:01:33,615 --> 00:01:36,815 Speaker 1: tour operator make that call if they cannot provide the 26 00:01:36,855 --> 00:01:40,694 Speaker 1: service because it's unsafe, your rights are better protected. Virgin 27 00:01:40,735 --> 00:01:43,455 Speaker 1: Australia confirmed on the weekend that four of its flights 28 00:01:43,455 --> 00:01:46,535 Speaker 1: bound for Doha had to turn around and return to Australia, 29 00:01:46,855 --> 00:01:49,655 Speaker 1: and a number of flights operated by Qatar Airways had 30 00:01:49,655 --> 00:01:54,015 Speaker 1: been canceled. Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Kwait and the United 31 00:01:54,055 --> 00:01:57,655 Speaker 1: Arab Emirates all announced at least partial closures of their skies, 32 00:01:57,975 --> 00:02:01,215 Speaker 1: with anyone traveling to the region or transiting through to 33 00:02:01,335 --> 00:02:04,455 Speaker 1: closely monitor their flight situation and stay in touch with 34 00:02:04,535 --> 00:02:09,374 Speaker 1: their airline for Informa. It's usually the driest town in Australia, 35 00:02:09,415 --> 00:02:12,375 Speaker 1: but Udna Data has been left a muddy sea after 36 00:02:12,415 --> 00:02:15,135 Speaker 1: being hit by an inland big wet that's claimed the 37 00:02:15,175 --> 00:02:18,375 Speaker 1: life of one man. The motorbike rider went missing after 38 00:02:18,415 --> 00:02:21,174 Speaker 1: trying to cross a flooded creek at Euralia in South 39 00:02:21,175 --> 00:02:24,615 Speaker 1: Australia's Flinders Ranges on Sunday morning. The forty seven year 40 00:02:24,655 --> 00:02:27,735 Speaker 1: old's body was later recovered as severe weather warnings and 41 00:02:27,815 --> 00:02:31,255 Speaker 1: flash flooding alerts remain in place across the region and 42 00:02:31,335 --> 00:02:35,495 Speaker 1: much of Australia's inland southeast. Locals say it hasn't rained 43 00:02:35,495 --> 00:02:39,255 Speaker 1: that much since the nineteen eighties. Nicole Castanaro, who works 44 00:02:39,255 --> 00:02:42,095 Speaker 1: at the roadhouse, says the roads are closed, We're running 45 00:02:42,095 --> 00:02:44,455 Speaker 1: out of food and if the trucks can't get through, 46 00:02:44,775 --> 00:02:47,895 Speaker 1: we'll be stuck eating baked beans for the foreseeable future. 47 00:02:48,335 --> 00:02:51,735 Speaker 1: UDNA data received nearly eighteen millimeters of rain overnight, or 48 00:02:51,775 --> 00:02:55,215 Speaker 1: more than ten percent of its average annual rainfall. There's 49 00:02:55,255 --> 00:02:57,895 Speaker 1: no immediate and insight to the huge storm system as 50 00:02:57,895 --> 00:03:02,335 Speaker 1: it passed through central Australia, bringing widespread downfalls and flash flooding. 51 00:03:02,655 --> 00:03:06,495 Speaker 1: The Bureau of Meteorologies Dean Narramore said heavy thunderstorms and 52 00:03:06,535 --> 00:03:10,055 Speaker 1: flooding are expected to continue until at least Monday night. 53 00:03:11,095 --> 00:03:14,575 Speaker 1: Michael Jackson's estate is being sued for child sex trafficking. 54 00:03:14,815 --> 00:03:19,495 Speaker 1: Siblings Edward Dominic Marie, Nicole and Aldo Caskio assuing the 55 00:03:19,575 --> 00:03:22,935 Speaker 1: late King of Pop's estate after alleging that Jackson groomed 56 00:03:23,015 --> 00:03:25,775 Speaker 1: and brainwashed them when they were miners. In a legal 57 00:03:25,815 --> 00:03:29,215 Speaker 1: complaint obtained by People, the siblings alleged they met Jackson 58 00:03:29,255 --> 00:03:32,495 Speaker 1: through their father, who worked at a luxury hotel visited 59 00:03:32,495 --> 00:03:35,335 Speaker 1: by the late star. They claimed Jackson went on to 60 00:03:35,335 --> 00:03:38,855 Speaker 1: supply them with drugs and alcohol, expose them to pornography, 61 00:03:38,935 --> 00:03:40,775 Speaker 1: and abuse them from when they were as young as 62 00:03:40,775 --> 00:03:44,655 Speaker 1: seven or eight. Attorney Marty Singer, who represents the Jackson estate, 63 00:03:44,735 --> 00:03:48,055 Speaker 1: told People in a statement that they deny all allegations 64 00:03:48,095 --> 00:03:51,495 Speaker 1: against Jackson and called the lawsuit a desperate money grab 65 00:03:51,535 --> 00:03:54,775 Speaker 1: by additional members of the Caskio family who've hopped on 66 00:03:54,815 --> 00:03:57,975 Speaker 1: the bandwagon with their brother Frank, who's already being sued 67 00:03:57,975 --> 00:04:02,055 Speaker 1: in arbitration for civil extortion. A first half header from 68 00:04:02,095 --> 00:04:04,855 Speaker 1: Sam curse Or the Matilda's win a frustrating one near 69 00:04:04,935 --> 00:04:08,055 Speaker 1: Asian Cup opener in Perth over the Philippines in front 70 00:04:08,055 --> 00:04:10,975 Speaker 1: of more than forty four thousand fans at Opta Stadium, 71 00:04:11,055 --> 00:04:14,215 Speaker 1: Matilda's captain Ker scored in the fourteenth minute for her 72 00:04:14,255 --> 00:04:17,735 Speaker 1: first international goal since November twenty twenty three and her 73 00:04:17,815 --> 00:04:22,295 Speaker 1: seventieth overall, but the Philippines damage controlled tactics proved too 74 00:04:22,375 --> 00:04:25,295 Speaker 1: tricky to crack beyond that, with the Matildas not able 75 00:04:25,335 --> 00:04:27,815 Speaker 1: to add to their tally in a result that could 76 00:04:27,855 --> 00:04:31,055 Speaker 1: prove costly if positions come down to goal difference. The 77 00:04:31,135 --> 00:04:33,975 Speaker 1: Matildas will be back in action on Thursday against Iran 78 00:04:34,015 --> 00:04:36,815 Speaker 1: on the Gold Coast, before rounding out their group stage 79 00:04:36,815 --> 00:04:40,895 Speaker 1: against South Korea in Sydney next Sunday. That's what's happening 80 00:04:40,895 --> 00:04:42,935 Speaker 1: in the world today. Next we crossed to a journalist 81 00:04:42,975 --> 00:04:53,575 Speaker 1: on the ground to see what's happening in Iran. The 82 00:04:53,655 --> 00:04:56,775 Speaker 1: coordinated attack on Iran this past weekend by both US 83 00:04:56,815 --> 00:04:59,655 Speaker 1: and Israeli forces is not the first shots fired in 84 00:04:59,695 --> 00:05:02,615 Speaker 1: this latest escalation of tensions in the region. Back in 85 00:05:02,655 --> 00:05:05,775 Speaker 1: April twenty twenty four, Israel launched missiles in to an 86 00:05:05,775 --> 00:05:10,174 Speaker 1: Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus that housed the Revolutionary Guards, 87 00:05:10,295 --> 00:05:15,214 Speaker 1: killing Iranian commanders. Iran responded by launching three hundred drones 88 00:05:15,255 --> 00:05:17,815 Speaker 1: into Israel. They managed to shoot most of them down 89 00:05:17,855 --> 00:05:20,615 Speaker 1: before they could do any major damage, but this marked 90 00:05:20,655 --> 00:05:23,534 Speaker 1: a major change in the tensions between the two countries 91 00:05:24,135 --> 00:05:27,375 Speaker 1: until this point, they're chosen to fight each other through others, 92 00:05:27,655 --> 00:05:31,294 Speaker 1: Iran supporting Hamas in Gaza, for example, Syrian and Iraqi 93 00:05:31,335 --> 00:05:35,614 Speaker 1: militias or Hesbalar in Lebanon, striking Israel by backing those 94 00:05:35,655 --> 00:05:38,815 Speaker 1: who fought against them. In mid twenty twenty five, after 95 00:05:38,935 --> 00:05:41,575 Speaker 1: months of a rising tensions around Iran's advancement of their 96 00:05:41,655 --> 00:05:45,375 Speaker 1: nuclear program, Israel launched an airstrike on uranium and Richmond 97 00:05:45,375 --> 00:05:49,575 Speaker 1: facilities in Iran. Iran responded by sending wave after wave 98 00:05:49,655 --> 00:05:53,055 Speaker 1: of drones at Israeli cities, causing casualties on both sides 99 00:05:53,095 --> 00:05:57,495 Speaker 1: and hitting critical infrastructure. The US formally enters the chat 100 00:05:57,535 --> 00:06:00,375 Speaker 1: in June twenty twenty five, using stealth bombers and a 101 00:06:00,415 --> 00:06:04,255 Speaker 1: guided missile submarine to hit deeply buried nuclear sites in 102 00:06:04,295 --> 00:06:08,335 Speaker 1: Iran that Israel couldn't reach alone. Iran responds again by 103 00:06:08,375 --> 00:06:11,735 Speaker 1: attacking their Aludid Air base in Katar, something they were 104 00:06:11,895 --> 00:06:15,575 Speaker 1: very clear they would continue to do targeting US bases 105 00:06:15,655 --> 00:06:18,735 Speaker 1: if things escalate. A ceasefire is called on what has 106 00:06:18,775 --> 00:06:21,335 Speaker 1: now been dubbed the Twelve Day War, but with Iran's 107 00:06:21,415 --> 00:06:25,055 Speaker 1: nuclear capability damaged but not destroyed, the crux of the 108 00:06:25,175 --> 00:06:28,335 Speaker 1: issue remained through the end of twenty twenty five and 109 00:06:28,375 --> 00:06:31,495 Speaker 1: into twenty twenty six, talks about Iran seizing their nuclear 110 00:06:31,535 --> 00:06:34,895 Speaker 1: program start to break down. Donald Trump posted on social 111 00:06:34,975 --> 00:06:38,255 Speaker 1: media back in January that a massive armada is heading 112 00:06:38,295 --> 00:06:41,175 Speaker 1: to Iran, saying it is ready, willing, and able to 113 00:06:41,295 --> 00:06:45,135 Speaker 1: rapidly fulfill its mission with speed and violence if necessary. 114 00:06:45,815 --> 00:06:48,455 Speaker 1: The Iranian mission to the UN reminded mister Trump about 115 00:06:48,495 --> 00:06:51,735 Speaker 1: the last time the US, in their words, blunded into 116 00:06:51,815 --> 00:06:55,854 Speaker 1: wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. It squandered over seven trillion dollars, 117 00:06:55,895 --> 00:06:58,935 Speaker 1: they said, and lost more than seven thousand American lives. 118 00:06:59,255 --> 00:07:02,255 Speaker 1: They went on to say Iran stands ready for dialogue 119 00:07:02,255 --> 00:07:06,255 Speaker 1: based mutual respect and interests, but if pushed, they wrote, 120 00:07:06,375 --> 00:07:10,615 Speaker 1: it will defend itself and respond like never before. Yesterday, 121 00:07:10,695 --> 00:07:14,215 Speaker 1: Donald Trump posted that the Ayatola Ali Hamani, the hardline 122 00:07:14,255 --> 00:07:17,095 Speaker 1: cleric who's been in charge in Iran since nineteen eighty nine, 123 00:07:17,255 --> 00:07:20,095 Speaker 1: had been killed in the attack. This was later confirmed 124 00:07:20,095 --> 00:07:23,375 Speaker 1: by Iranian state media. Videos posted from the ground in 125 00:07:23,375 --> 00:07:30,815 Speaker 1: Iran seems to show the people celebrating, But who takes 126 00:07:30,855 --> 00:07:33,055 Speaker 1: control of the country from here and what does that 127 00:07:33,095 --> 00:07:36,495 Speaker 1: look like for the broader region remains unclear. Yumna el 128 00:07:36,575 --> 00:07:38,815 Speaker 1: Said is a freelance journalist who was working on the 129 00:07:38,815 --> 00:07:41,575 Speaker 1: ground in Gaza before she was forced to flee to Egypt. 130 00:07:41,935 --> 00:07:44,735 Speaker 1: Yumna firstly, what has the response been like in Cairo? 131 00:07:45,375 --> 00:07:49,015 Speaker 2: Well, here in Cairo, there is a state of worry, 132 00:07:49,095 --> 00:07:54,135 Speaker 2: of course, especially that this conflict that is ongoing now 133 00:07:54,335 --> 00:07:59,855 Speaker 2: is not just in Iran or Israel, but also several 134 00:07:59,975 --> 00:08:05,015 Speaker 2: Golf countries are being affected. And this means that a 135 00:08:05,055 --> 00:08:09,415 Speaker 2: lot of people here, Egyptian nationals who work or have 136 00:08:09,615 --> 00:08:13,495 Speaker 2: families who work in these Gulf countries are affected by 137 00:08:13,495 --> 00:08:18,415 Speaker 2: what's going and everyone is really worried to see how 138 00:08:18,535 --> 00:08:22,295 Speaker 2: this continues, whether we're going to be witnessing any de 139 00:08:22,535 --> 00:08:27,535 Speaker 2: escalation in the short upcoming period or it's going to 140 00:08:27,575 --> 00:08:32,375 Speaker 2: get more complicated and you know, take us further into 141 00:08:32,415 --> 00:08:36,655 Speaker 2: a full scale war that affects the entire region. 142 00:08:37,255 --> 00:08:40,295 Speaker 1: For Australians waking up today, we haven't seen any de 143 00:08:40,455 --> 00:08:44,815 Speaker 1: escalation overnight. It seems to be continuing. What's been the 144 00:08:44,895 --> 00:08:48,495 Speaker 1: latest in the last twenty four hours since the US 145 00:08:48,495 --> 00:08:50,855 Speaker 1: and Israel began this operation in Iran. 146 00:08:51,495 --> 00:08:56,415 Speaker 2: Well, of course the US and Israel started by a 147 00:08:56,455 --> 00:08:59,495 Speaker 2: military operation against Iran. 148 00:08:59,815 --> 00:09:04,535 Speaker 3: It was pretty surprising actually for everyone, especially that this 149 00:09:04,655 --> 00:09:09,455 Speaker 3: operation took place suddenly while they are actually, you know, 150 00:09:09,615 --> 00:09:12,615 Speaker 3: they had just concluded a round of talks in Geneva 151 00:09:12,935 --> 00:09:16,415 Speaker 3: with the mediators involved like Oman. 152 00:09:15,975 --> 00:09:21,415 Speaker 2: And you know, the situation seemed somehow calm and that 153 00:09:21,455 --> 00:09:26,375 Speaker 2: there are still room for further negotiations to de escalate 154 00:09:26,455 --> 00:09:31,175 Speaker 2: the tensions that are ongoing between Israel, the US and Iran. 155 00:09:31,655 --> 00:09:35,895 Speaker 2: But as the situation now has gone out of hand 156 00:09:35,975 --> 00:09:42,255 Speaker 2: and we are witnessing these ongoing missiles flying from Israel 157 00:09:42,535 --> 00:09:45,735 Speaker 2: and from the US bass in the region, in the 158 00:09:45,775 --> 00:09:51,775 Speaker 2: Middle East region, we see a strong infierce Iranian retaliation 159 00:09:52,295 --> 00:09:56,135 Speaker 2: towards Israel and of course towards the US bases and 160 00:09:56,255 --> 00:10:01,855 Speaker 2: assets in the Middle East region, particularly in the Gulf countries. 161 00:10:02,335 --> 00:10:05,055 Speaker 2: In the first day of this of the beginning of 162 00:10:05,054 --> 00:10:09,295 Speaker 2: this military operation that was conducted against Iran, we have 163 00:10:09,455 --> 00:10:13,855 Speaker 2: seen not just the supreme leaders and political governmental leaders 164 00:10:14,455 --> 00:10:19,135 Speaker 2: been assassinated in the first day, but the Supreme Leader 165 00:10:19,215 --> 00:10:24,255 Speaker 2: of Iran himself, ayat La Kamini, has also been assassinated 166 00:10:24,335 --> 00:10:27,975 Speaker 2: in one of these attacks. The attacks have not just 167 00:10:28,175 --> 00:10:32,934 Speaker 2: been on nuclear sites in Iran, but have gone beyond 168 00:10:33,015 --> 00:10:39,815 Speaker 2: to target other governmental and even civilian infrastructure in Iran, 169 00:10:40,175 --> 00:10:44,895 Speaker 2: killing dozens of civilians and injuring dozens more. We know it. 170 00:10:44,975 --> 00:10:48,335 Speaker 1: Sometimes a flow of information out of Iran is not 171 00:10:48,935 --> 00:10:51,855 Speaker 1: great and we have to piece things together from what 172 00:10:51,935 --> 00:10:54,255 Speaker 1: we can see. But some videos that seem to have 173 00:10:54,295 --> 00:10:58,735 Speaker 1: been verified shows thousands of Iranians taking to the streets 174 00:10:58,735 --> 00:11:02,375 Speaker 1: in celebration, while others show those in mourning for the 175 00:11:02,415 --> 00:11:06,455 Speaker 1: death of Ayatollahmani. What do we underst stand about what's 176 00:11:06,495 --> 00:11:11,295 Speaker 1: actually happening inside Iran itself with the leaders now killed 177 00:11:11,295 --> 00:11:15,295 Speaker 1: in this attack and regime change happening, maybe not in 178 00:11:15,295 --> 00:11:16,975 Speaker 1: the way that we would think in the West, but 179 00:11:18,015 --> 00:11:20,015 Speaker 1: they do have to replace that leadership. 180 00:11:20,895 --> 00:11:25,215 Speaker 2: Well, let's not forget that this operation begins just as 181 00:11:25,255 --> 00:11:27,695 Speaker 2: we have witnessed in the past weeks, a lot of 182 00:11:27,815 --> 00:11:32,695 Speaker 2: protests and thousands of Iranians going to the streets protesting 183 00:11:33,054 --> 00:11:36,735 Speaker 2: against the government and against the leadership in Iran that 184 00:11:37,015 --> 00:11:41,055 Speaker 2: was Ayatu Lahamania and the leadership in Iran now. And 185 00:11:41,215 --> 00:11:44,175 Speaker 2: these protests have been going on for weeks and weeks 186 00:11:44,655 --> 00:11:48,175 Speaker 2: some of them or at some events, they were very violent, 187 00:11:48,335 --> 00:11:52,895 Speaker 2: and civilians have been killed in these protests. So now 188 00:11:52,975 --> 00:11:57,095 Speaker 2: there is already there was already the state of attention 189 00:11:57,655 --> 00:12:02,095 Speaker 2: within the country itself. Of course, there are supporters of 190 00:12:02,735 --> 00:12:06,415 Speaker 2: the previous leadership, and there are a lot of people 191 00:12:06,575 --> 00:12:11,214 Speaker 2: who are against the leadership that or the previous leadership 192 00:12:11,375 --> 00:12:15,815 Speaker 2: and are happy that they are finally, as the President 193 00:12:15,815 --> 00:12:20,495 Speaker 2: Trump puts it, this is their chance now to choose 194 00:12:20,535 --> 00:12:25,055 Speaker 2: a new leader to govern them, especially at this time. Now, 195 00:12:25,175 --> 00:12:29,055 Speaker 2: the real problem here, or the real question is, of course, 196 00:12:29,455 --> 00:12:33,695 Speaker 2: Iran is not a system that is designed to stop 197 00:12:33,775 --> 00:12:38,295 Speaker 2: in case of any such incidents happen, whether it's war 198 00:12:38,455 --> 00:12:41,295 Speaker 2: or assassination or so on. It's the system that is 199 00:12:41,335 --> 00:12:46,655 Speaker 2: designed for continuity. So here what is expected is that 200 00:12:46,695 --> 00:12:51,055 Speaker 2: the assembly of experts in Iran to assign the or 201 00:12:51,135 --> 00:12:55,055 Speaker 2: select the Supreme Leader, the new Supreme leader, and then 202 00:12:55,095 --> 00:12:59,255 Speaker 2: the system should go on to carry on with this 203 00:12:59,375 --> 00:13:04,535 Speaker 2: ongoing period and what comes next. But now the real 204 00:13:04,615 --> 00:13:10,575 Speaker 2: question is the leadership transition during an active conflict. Is 205 00:13:10,615 --> 00:13:15,255 Speaker 2: this succession going to be a smooth succession or are 206 00:13:15,295 --> 00:13:19,775 Speaker 2: there going to be the internal political factions that are 207 00:13:19,815 --> 00:13:23,935 Speaker 2: competing for power and influence now at this time, during 208 00:13:23,975 --> 00:13:30,015 Speaker 2: this very highly sensitive period in Iran that will try 209 00:13:30,054 --> 00:13:32,415 Speaker 2: to possess their power and take over. 210 00:13:33,335 --> 00:13:37,935 Speaker 1: We know that the US is very well funded, very 211 00:13:37,975 --> 00:13:41,615 Speaker 1: capable of conducting a war. We understand that Israel is 212 00:13:41,615 --> 00:13:45,655 Speaker 1: in the same position. How capable is the Iranian military 213 00:13:45,975 --> 00:13:50,175 Speaker 1: of holding off attacks by two very strong military countries. 214 00:13:50,855 --> 00:13:56,135 Speaker 2: Well, Iran basically has three main tools. Let's say. The 215 00:13:56,175 --> 00:14:00,695 Speaker 2: first one is it's a large ballistic missile arsenal and 216 00:14:00,815 --> 00:14:05,935 Speaker 2: it has a very advanced, strong capability. And the third 217 00:14:06,295 --> 00:14:11,295 Speaker 2: is the wide regional network of allied armed groups in 218 00:14:11,375 --> 00:14:17,215 Speaker 2: different countries in the region, including Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon 219 00:14:17,415 --> 00:14:21,255 Speaker 2: and even Syria, the armed groups of Iraq that have 220 00:14:21,415 --> 00:14:26,855 Speaker 2: already started launching military operations against the American bases and 221 00:14:26,975 --> 00:14:32,455 Speaker 2: assets in Iraq itself. So this wide network is a 222 00:14:32,575 --> 00:14:38,015 Speaker 2: very strong network for Iran that it that's on, you know, 223 00:14:38,655 --> 00:14:44,175 Speaker 2: in other countries away or far away from Iran itself 224 00:14:44,215 --> 00:14:48,535 Speaker 2: to conduct or to help Iran in its operation or 225 00:14:48,615 --> 00:14:52,655 Speaker 2: military operation against the US, especially. 226 00:14:54,455 --> 00:14:57,495 Speaker 1: Human I just get personal for a moment. What's it 227 00:14:57,575 --> 00:14:59,695 Speaker 1: like for you working as a journalist in this region 228 00:14:59,735 --> 00:15:03,935 Speaker 1: right now? You've already been forced to leave Gaza when 229 00:15:03,935 --> 00:15:06,415 Speaker 1: you're reporting there for the same give your family. That's 230 00:15:06,415 --> 00:15:10,255 Speaker 1: why you've been living in Cairo. What does it mean 231 00:15:10,335 --> 00:15:13,135 Speaker 1: for you to be reporting on things that are happening 232 00:15:13,175 --> 00:15:16,495 Speaker 1: in this region right now, especially as a woman in 233 00:15:16,535 --> 00:15:21,455 Speaker 1: this space to how hard is your job to report 234 00:15:21,495 --> 00:15:23,735 Speaker 1: on the facts coming out of this region right now? 235 00:15:24,175 --> 00:15:28,615 Speaker 2: Coming out of gas first, Claire was fully a survival decision. 236 00:15:29,335 --> 00:15:31,895 Speaker 2: It was the only decision I could take to make 237 00:15:31,935 --> 00:15:37,575 Speaker 2: sure that my children, my family remains alive. It has 238 00:15:37,735 --> 00:15:43,135 Speaker 2: had a very strong psychological toll on me, on my kids, 239 00:15:43,255 --> 00:15:46,975 Speaker 2: or my husband, or my family. It's very difficult also 240 00:15:47,055 --> 00:15:50,615 Speaker 2: the fact that you are somewhere in exile, you are 241 00:15:50,655 --> 00:15:54,895 Speaker 2: prevented from practicing your job as a journalist. 242 00:15:55,415 --> 00:15:58,175 Speaker 3: I try to do whatever I can do for my. 243 00:15:58,255 --> 00:16:02,975 Speaker 2: Own mental health, you know, you feel that you are 244 00:16:03,535 --> 00:16:07,575 Speaker 2: stranded because you can no longer work coming out of 245 00:16:07,615 --> 00:16:12,375 Speaker 2: Gaza to save my family, I've lost my job as 246 00:16:12,495 --> 00:16:16,135 Speaker 2: I'll Jazer a correspondent, so I'm not able to work 247 00:16:16,175 --> 00:16:19,895 Speaker 2: as a journalist here in Egypt. That really, you know, 248 00:16:20,135 --> 00:16:24,495 Speaker 2: just adds a lot of struggle, especially mentally to me. 249 00:16:25,015 --> 00:16:29,055 Speaker 2: I feel that physically I'm in a safe place, in 250 00:16:29,095 --> 00:16:32,695 Speaker 2: a safe zone, but I don't feel all right mentally 251 00:16:33,095 --> 00:16:37,575 Speaker 2: because you're a journalist' this is what you do. This 252 00:16:37,615 --> 00:16:40,735 Speaker 2: is your job to bear witness, to continue reporting, to 253 00:16:40,775 --> 00:16:45,655 Speaker 2: speak out, to inform. You know, I feel that I 254 00:16:45,695 --> 00:16:48,135 Speaker 2: am forced by force kept quiet. 255 00:16:49,015 --> 00:16:51,895 Speaker 1: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi back to the US and 256 00:16:52,055 --> 00:16:55,735 Speaker 1: Israel's Iran attack, releasing a statement saying Australia stands with 257 00:16:55,775 --> 00:16:58,455 Speaker 1: the brave people of Iran in their struggle against depression. 258 00:16:58,855 --> 00:17:01,175 Speaker 1: The statement goes on to say for decades, the Iranian 259 00:17:01,215 --> 00:17:04,614 Speaker 1: regime has been a destabilizing force through its ballistic missile 260 00:17:04,655 --> 00:17:08,254 Speaker 1: and nuclear prog support for armed proxies, and brutal acts 261 00:17:08,294 --> 00:17:11,894 Speaker 1: of violence and intimidation. Mister Albinizi said, we support the 262 00:17:12,014 --> 00:17:15,135 Speaker 1: United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear 263 00:17:15,175 --> 00:17:19,054 Speaker 1: weapon and to prevent Iran continuing to threaten international peace 264 00:17:19,175 --> 00:17:22,694 Speaker 1: and security. It was later clarified that the Australian military 265 00:17:22,734 --> 00:17:24,734 Speaker 1: had played no part in the attack and we were 266 00:17:24,774 --> 00:17:27,814 Speaker 1: not informed prior to it taking place. So what does 267 00:17:27,854 --> 00:17:30,415 Speaker 1: this mean for all the countries involved, regardless of which 268 00:17:30,415 --> 00:17:34,054 Speaker 1: side they take. Jessica Genauer is an associate professor in 269 00:17:34,054 --> 00:17:38,695 Speaker 1: international relations at Flinders University. Jessica, what are the further 270 00:17:39,014 --> 00:17:42,614 Speaker 1: implications of this attack, would regime change be a significant 271 00:17:42,655 --> 00:17:45,134 Speaker 1: step for the people of Iran and how Iran is 272 00:17:45,135 --> 00:17:46,774 Speaker 1: seen by the broader world community. 273 00:17:47,375 --> 00:17:51,975 Speaker 4: So what's quite complex about this situation and unfortunate for 274 00:17:52,375 --> 00:17:55,534 Speaker 4: the people of Iran who have been calling for regime change, 275 00:17:56,094 --> 00:17:58,734 Speaker 4: is that it's going to be very difficult, if not 276 00:17:58,814 --> 00:18:04,734 Speaker 4: almost impossible, for military strikes from the air on Iranian 277 00:18:04,814 --> 00:18:09,294 Speaker 4: military ca capability or even political and security leaders to 278 00:18:09,774 --> 00:18:14,614 Speaker 4: actually affect regime change in a more sustainable way. And 279 00:18:14,655 --> 00:18:17,374 Speaker 4: that's because in order for them to be a change 280 00:18:17,375 --> 00:18:20,215 Speaker 4: of regime, you really need to put in place a 281 00:18:20,294 --> 00:18:25,135 Speaker 4: whole new political apparatus, a whole new security apparatus, which 282 00:18:25,175 --> 00:18:29,935 Speaker 4: goes along with political institutions and systems and structures that 283 00:18:29,975 --> 00:18:34,494 Speaker 4: would need to be completely overhauled. Now currently within Iran, 284 00:18:35,294 --> 00:18:39,734 Speaker 4: the instruments of the regime still have complete control over 285 00:18:40,135 --> 00:18:45,094 Speaker 4: security in the domestic Iranian environment, so essentially policing the 286 00:18:45,175 --> 00:18:50,254 Speaker 4: Iranian populations. They still have full control over political institutions 287 00:18:50,294 --> 00:18:54,134 Speaker 4: and structures, and the protesters whilst there are you know, 288 00:18:54,175 --> 00:18:56,854 Speaker 4: we think millions of people who are not happy with 289 00:18:56,975 --> 00:18:59,215 Speaker 4: the regime, and many of them have been out on 290 00:18:59,254 --> 00:19:02,494 Speaker 4: the streets. They don't really have any kind of organized 291 00:19:02,734 --> 00:19:08,615 Speaker 4: political structure or a kind of organized military, not even military, 292 00:19:08,614 --> 00:19:11,494 Speaker 4: but a sort of a militia or armed force that 293 00:19:11,574 --> 00:19:16,054 Speaker 4: could provide some kind of alternative to the current regime. So, 294 00:19:16,494 --> 00:19:19,294 Speaker 4: despite these strikes and the way that they are going 295 00:19:19,375 --> 00:19:22,574 Speaker 4: to reduce the capability of the current Ranian regime, I 296 00:19:22,655 --> 00:19:26,574 Speaker 4: don't really see the regime completely collapsing or being removed 297 00:19:26,574 --> 00:19:27,695 Speaker 4: from power now. 298 00:19:27,774 --> 00:19:31,135 Speaker 1: Australia and some are rather allies like Canada for example, 299 00:19:31,574 --> 00:19:34,855 Speaker 1: backed this attack by the US in Israel, but many 300 00:19:34,935 --> 00:19:39,215 Speaker 1: European leaders have not. Why is there that divide because 301 00:19:39,215 --> 00:19:40,895 Speaker 1: it does not seem like we're all on the same 302 00:19:40,935 --> 00:19:41,415 Speaker 1: page here. 303 00:19:41,935 --> 00:19:46,455 Speaker 4: Yeah. So the second Trump administration has really created quite 304 00:19:46,494 --> 00:19:50,095 Speaker 4: a lot of chaos in some ways in the international order. 305 00:19:50,135 --> 00:19:52,375 Speaker 4: And it didn't start with Trump. I mean, we have 306 00:19:52,814 --> 00:19:55,894 Speaker 4: been seeing shifts in the sort of international architecture for 307 00:19:55,935 --> 00:19:59,294 Speaker 4: some time now, but a second in Trump's second administration, 308 00:19:59,375 --> 00:20:02,854 Speaker 4: He's definitely accelerated that. And so we have seen a 309 00:20:02,895 --> 00:20:07,455 Speaker 4: few actions already from the Trump administration, such as capturing 310 00:20:07,494 --> 00:20:11,254 Speaker 4: the Venezuelan President Maduro, and then of course you know 311 00:20:11,375 --> 00:20:14,574 Speaker 4: strikes last year into Iran, and then these strikes which 312 00:20:15,094 --> 00:20:17,895 Speaker 4: haven't gone through the US Congress, they haven't gone through 313 00:20:17,935 --> 00:20:20,734 Speaker 4: the United Nations Security Council. So even if sometimes we 314 00:20:20,774 --> 00:20:23,455 Speaker 4: can be a bit cynical about, you know, the United 315 00:20:23,494 --> 00:20:26,134 Speaker 4: Nations or what they do or don't do, it's definitely 316 00:20:26,135 --> 00:20:29,655 Speaker 4: clear that the Trump administration is operating outside any kind 317 00:20:29,695 --> 00:20:32,374 Speaker 4: of semblance of trying to align with sort of an 318 00:20:32,375 --> 00:20:34,895 Speaker 4: international rules based order. So I think that's where it's 319 00:20:34,895 --> 00:20:38,094 Speaker 4: tricky for US allies around the world. You know, how 320 00:20:38,135 --> 00:20:41,334 Speaker 4: do we then respond to these actions, because we don't 321 00:20:41,494 --> 00:20:44,494 Speaker 4: want to overly condone them and say it's completely fine 322 00:20:44,655 --> 00:20:46,534 Speaker 4: for a powerful state to just basically do whatever they 323 00:20:46,574 --> 00:20:48,814 Speaker 4: want to do in the international arena in terms of 324 00:20:48,814 --> 00:20:55,135 Speaker 4: military operations. Interestingly, Olbernesi's government has actually come out relatively 325 00:20:55,175 --> 00:20:58,455 Speaker 4: supportive of this move. I was actually expecting them probably 326 00:20:58,494 --> 00:21:01,174 Speaker 4: to be slightly more moderate in their statements saying, you know, 327 00:21:01,254 --> 00:21:03,574 Speaker 4: something along the lines of, of course, the Iranian regime is 328 00:21:03,614 --> 00:21:08,214 Speaker 4: exceptionally brutal, and no body is supporting the Iranian regime 329 00:21:08,215 --> 00:21:11,214 Speaker 4: and the way they've been treating their populations. But at 330 00:21:11,254 --> 00:21:13,415 Speaker 4: the same time, we don't want to step too far 331 00:21:13,534 --> 00:21:16,454 Speaker 4: outside the bounds of being constrained by some kind of 332 00:21:16,574 --> 00:21:20,335 Speaker 4: international law or international order otherwise, you know, we might 333 00:21:20,334 --> 00:21:23,574 Speaker 4: support that in one instance, but in another instance, a 334 00:21:23,614 --> 00:21:26,174 Speaker 4: powerful actor, let's say, for example, China in our region 335 00:21:26,534 --> 00:21:28,734 Speaker 4: might start to look around the world and say, okay, 336 00:21:28,774 --> 00:21:31,294 Speaker 4: well we can see that nobody's even trying to be 337 00:21:31,334 --> 00:21:34,534 Speaker 4: constrained by an international order anymore. So that also leaves 338 00:21:34,614 --> 00:21:37,695 Speaker 4: us free, for example, to conduct a military operation visa 339 00:21:37,774 --> 00:21:40,054 Speaker 4: Vita one or something of that sort. So I think 340 00:21:40,094 --> 00:21:42,494 Speaker 4: generally we do want to try to still stick to 341 00:21:42,534 --> 00:21:45,975 Speaker 4: the principles. You know, in Australia is a strong middle 342 00:21:46,014 --> 00:21:49,935 Speaker 4: power of saying there should be some kind of adherence 343 00:21:50,014 --> 00:21:52,894 Speaker 4: to sort of an international law. But as you mentioned, 344 00:21:52,935 --> 00:21:55,174 Speaker 4: we've seen Australia and Canada coming out, you know, not 345 00:21:55,254 --> 00:21:58,455 Speaker 4: in sort of full throated support, but a little more 346 00:21:58,975 --> 00:22:02,254 Speaker 4: kind of supportive of the strike, certainly not condemning them. 347 00:22:02,695 --> 00:22:05,094 Speaker 4: And we've seen at the same time some European countries, 348 00:22:05,135 --> 00:22:10,175 Speaker 4: so France, the UK and Germany interestingly issuing a joint statement. 349 00:22:10,375 --> 00:22:13,534 Speaker 4: So I think trying to form some kind of counterpoint 350 00:22:13,574 --> 00:22:17,174 Speaker 4: now to US power with everything that's been happening, and 351 00:22:17,294 --> 00:22:22,895 Speaker 4: being a little stronger in not condemning but certainly not 352 00:22:22,935 --> 00:22:25,655 Speaker 4: condoning what's happening and basically saying we should go back 353 00:22:25,655 --> 00:22:29,014 Speaker 4: to diplomatic channels, we should go back to dialogue and 354 00:22:29,094 --> 00:22:32,095 Speaker 4: negotiations and try to find some kind of solution through 355 00:22:32,094 --> 00:22:33,015 Speaker 4: those mechanisms. 356 00:22:33,415 --> 00:22:35,455 Speaker 1: Just finally, just here, I think as Australians, many of 357 00:22:35,534 --> 00:22:39,095 Speaker 1: us are feeling some conflicted emotions about this attack by 358 00:22:39,175 --> 00:22:41,975 Speaker 1: Israel and the US on Iran because on the one hand, 359 00:22:42,014 --> 00:22:47,174 Speaker 1: we know that violence should be the last option, with 360 00:22:47,494 --> 00:22:49,174 Speaker 1: the fact that they were in the middle of talks 361 00:22:49,215 --> 00:22:51,534 Speaker 1: it did seem to be declining over the last week 362 00:22:51,614 --> 00:22:54,854 Speaker 1: or two in particular, But then also we saw you know, 363 00:22:55,014 --> 00:22:57,734 Speaker 1: Iranians taking to the streets and be brutally killed by 364 00:22:57,734 --> 00:23:02,614 Speaker 1: the regime or detained. So this feels difficult to protests. 365 00:23:02,935 --> 00:23:04,814 Speaker 1: We don't want what to happen, But at the same time, 366 00:23:04,854 --> 00:23:07,334 Speaker 1: what would it take for a regime changed to actually 367 00:23:07,334 --> 00:23:09,935 Speaker 1: happen in Iran? Because you know, Atola Chamade had been 368 00:23:10,455 --> 00:23:11,254 Speaker 1: in power. 369 00:23:10,935 --> 00:23:13,734 Speaker 4: For decades, That's exactly right. So that's where you know, 370 00:23:13,854 --> 00:23:18,134 Speaker 4: these sort of situations are very tricky and complex and 371 00:23:18,215 --> 00:23:20,014 Speaker 4: multi dimensional, and we kind of want to look at 372 00:23:20,014 --> 00:23:22,134 Speaker 4: them and see something more simple, like we want to 373 00:23:22,175 --> 00:23:24,455 Speaker 4: be able to identify, well, these are the bad actors, 374 00:23:24,534 --> 00:23:26,975 Speaker 4: you know, and if we remove them, then we're going 375 00:23:27,014 --> 00:23:30,574 Speaker 4: to just have a much better situation for everybody. But unfortunately, 376 00:23:30,655 --> 00:23:37,014 Speaker 4: it's usually always much more complex, and I think unfortunately, 377 00:23:37,135 --> 00:23:39,455 Speaker 4: you know, nobody liked to see the way the Iranian 378 00:23:39,534 --> 00:23:42,534 Speaker 4: regime was treating protesters in January. We had reports of 379 00:23:43,135 --> 00:23:45,894 Speaker 4: you know, tens of thousands of people potentially being killed 380 00:23:45,895 --> 00:23:48,734 Speaker 4: by their own regime, which is awful and horrible human 381 00:23:48,814 --> 00:23:53,014 Speaker 4: rights abuses. On the other hand, meeting violence with violence, 382 00:23:53,135 --> 00:23:59,935 Speaker 4: unfortunately oftentimes can have unintended consequences. So you know, going 383 00:23:59,975 --> 00:24:03,774 Speaker 4: out then in military strikes against the regime is not 384 00:24:03,854 --> 00:24:09,415 Speaker 4: necessarily creating a clear and sustainable pathway to a better regime, 385 00:24:09,455 --> 00:24:13,655 Speaker 4: and can have all sorts of other unintended, unintended consequences. 386 00:24:13,975 --> 00:24:16,375 Speaker 4: And I think a key issue here, which we do 387 00:24:16,415 --> 00:24:18,975 Speaker 4: see time and again in the international arena, and partly 388 00:24:19,014 --> 00:24:21,014 Speaker 4: why a lot of people are dissatisfied with the current 389 00:24:21,054 --> 00:24:26,175 Speaker 4: international order, is that we don't have very good instruments 390 00:24:26,375 --> 00:24:30,374 Speaker 4: or mechanisms to deal with violent actors in the international arena. 391 00:24:30,455 --> 00:24:33,294 Speaker 4: So to deal with violent conflict where it exists, we 392 00:24:33,334 --> 00:24:35,374 Speaker 4: sort of say, okay, we should have dialogue, We should 393 00:24:35,375 --> 00:24:38,494 Speaker 4: have negotiations. But where there are actors who are really 394 00:24:39,054 --> 00:24:42,734 Speaker 4: determined to engage in violence, either against their own populations 395 00:24:42,774 --> 00:24:46,094 Speaker 4: or against other populations, we don't really have good instruments 396 00:24:46,094 --> 00:24:48,654 Speaker 4: to deal with that. And then, as I said, you know, 397 00:24:48,774 --> 00:24:52,454 Speaker 4: meeting that violence with more violence doesn't always lead to 398 00:24:52,854 --> 00:24:55,655 Speaker 4: a better outcome unfortunately. So I think it's a matter 399 00:24:55,695 --> 00:24:59,655 Speaker 4: of developing probably better mechanisms, better instruments in the international 400 00:24:59,695 --> 00:25:02,655 Speaker 4: arena in future decades, hopefully as we go forward into 401 00:25:02,655 --> 00:25:06,654 Speaker 4: some kind of new emerging international order where maybe we 402 00:25:06,774 --> 00:25:10,774 Speaker 4: can have better ways to deal with conflict before it 403 00:25:10,935 --> 00:25:14,415 Speaker 4: escalates into all out violence, which has so many costs. 404 00:25:16,375 --> 00:25:18,094 Speaker 1: Thanks for taking the time to feed your mind with 405 00:25:18,175 --> 00:25:20,534 Speaker 1: us today. We'll keep you updated on this story as 406 00:25:20,534 --> 00:25:23,774 Speaker 1: it unfolds. The Quickie is produced by me Claire Murphy 407 00:25:23,774 --> 00:25:27,094 Speaker 1: and Taylor Strano. Our Group executive producer is a Laria Brophy, 408 00:25:27,334 --> 00:25:36,934 Speaker 1: with audio production by Lou Hill. Mumma Mea acknowledges the 409 00:25:36,975 --> 00:25:39,814 Speaker 1: traditional owners of land and waters that this podcast is 410 00:25:39,854 --> 00:25:40,454 Speaker 1: recorded on