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Speaker 1: You're listening to a Muma Mia podcast. Mumma Mea acknowledges

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Speaker 1: the traditional owners of land and waters that this podcast

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Speaker 1: is recorded on.

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Speaker 2: Hi.

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Speaker 1: I'm Claire Murphy. This is Mumma MIA's twice daily news podcast,

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Speaker 1: The Quickie. The US election is now less than two

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Speaker 1: weeks away, with both presidential candidates pulling out all the

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Speaker 1: stops to win over the hearts and minds of Americans

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Speaker 1: before November five. But what do the numbers tell us?

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Speaker 1: Today we catch up with our US correspondent to Melia Lester,

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Speaker 1: who has some interesting news on what the poles say

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Speaker 1: about who will be in the White House in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five.

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Speaker 2: But first, let's check in with the Quickie Newsroom.

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Speaker 1: Thursday, October twenty four, the frenchwoman at the center of

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Speaker 1: a shocking rape trial has told the court that she

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Speaker 1: has been left totally destroyed by the alleged rapes inflicted

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Speaker 1: on her over a ten year period after she was

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Speaker 1: systemically drugged by her husband. Seventy two year old Giselle

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Speaker 1: Pelicot took to the stand for the first time overnight,

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Speaker 1: telling the court she has decided not to be ashamed,

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Speaker 1: that she has done nothing wrong saying instead they the

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Speaker 1: alleged rapists, are the ones who must be ashamed. She

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Speaker 1: explained how she thought she had an incredible husband who

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Speaker 1: would always cook her meals and bring her her favorite

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Speaker 1: flavor ice cream in bed, now knowing the reason he

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Speaker 1: did so was to slip drugs into her food before

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Speaker 1: inviting men over to assault her, which he then captured

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Speaker 1: on video. Despite the video evidence, many of the men

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Speaker 1: who've been accused claimed that the sex was consensual. Some

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Speaker 1: say Gezelle's husband tricked them into thinking they were playing

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Speaker 1: a game where Gizelle was pretending to be asleep. A

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Speaker 1: few have admitted to the rapes and have apologized. Gizelle's

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Speaker 1: saying she hears the apologies, but they are inaudible. By apologizing,

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Speaker 1: she says, they're simply trying to excuse themselves. Liam Payne's

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Speaker 1: father is refusing to leave Argentina without his son's body,

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Speaker 1: despite being told he may have to wait up to

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Speaker 1: ten days before police release his remains. The thirty one

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Speaker 1: year old former One Direction singer tragically died after falling

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Speaker 1: from the third floor balcony of the hotel where he

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Speaker 1: was staying last week. There are reports he may have

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Speaker 1: been under the influence of drugs and alcohol at the time,

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Speaker 1: Police in Buenos Aires having to wait for the full

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Speaker 1: toxicology results before allowing his body to be taken back

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Speaker 1: to the UK. The initial toxicology results showed that Pain

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Speaker 1: had substances including cocaine, crack and antidepressant, and something known

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Speaker 1: as pink cocaine, a mix of meth kenemine MDMA and

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Speaker 1: other drugs in his system. With the war in Ukraine

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Speaker 1: now five months shy of three years, Russia needed to

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Speaker 1: bolster its ranks of men on the front line, and

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Speaker 1: North Korea has reportedly answered the call. Ukraine President Vladimir

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Speaker 1: Zelenski last week said their knew North Korea was preparing

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Speaker 1: to send ten thousand troops to fight against them. They're

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Speaker 1: now reporting eleven thousand North Korean troops that are already

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Speaker 1: there and preparing to join the battle next month. South

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Speaker 1: Korea claims North Korea has sent fifteen hundred special forces

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Speaker 1: and twelve thousand soldiers. Neither Russia or North Korea have

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Speaker 1: confirmed the deployment. South Korea saying they'll now consider sending

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Speaker 1: more weapons to Ukraine as they fear those troops will

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Speaker 1: gain battle experience and the ability to test their own

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Speaker 1: weapons systems in potential future conflicts with them. A new

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Speaker 1: South Wales woman has thanked her friends and the rescue

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Speaker 1: team has saved her after she became stuck between massive

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Speaker 1: boulders head down while trying to retrieve her lost phone.

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Speaker 1: Matilda Campbell was taking photos while on a hike in

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Speaker 1: the Hunter Valley when she dropped her phone into the crevice.

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Speaker 1: She attempted to retrieve it, but instead slipped into the

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Speaker 1: gap between the rocks, finding herself wedged upside down. Her

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Speaker 1: friends tried to free her, but ended up having to

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Speaker 1: hike to a spot where they could get phone reception

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Speaker 1: and call in experts. She spent seven hours hanging upside

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Speaker 1: down while they shored up the boulders and then winched

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Speaker 1: one out of the way for her to be freed.

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Speaker 1: Campbell says it's crazy, but she's doing good now, saying

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Speaker 1: she wanted to give the biggest shout out to her

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Speaker 1: friends and the teen that saved her, saying she's forever

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Speaker 1: thankful as she most likely wouldn't be here today. That's

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Speaker 1: the latest news headlines. Next, the numbers look neck and neck.

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Speaker 1: Now are they pointing to one candidate over the other

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Speaker 1: when it comes to the race for the US presidency.

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Speaker 1: Emilia Lesta says yes, and it's throwing some very twenty

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Speaker 1: sixteen vibes.

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Speaker 2: As the twenty.

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Speaker 1: Twenty four presidential election enters its final stretch, both Vice

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Speaker 1: President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are intensifying

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Speaker 1: their campaigns in key battleground states, the candidates pulling out.

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Speaker 2: All the stops to secure crucial votes.

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Speaker 1: There's word Donald Trump is headed to Austin, Texas to

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Speaker 1: record an interview with one of the country's most popular

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Speaker 1: podcast hosts, Joe Rogan. He's already appeared on Logan Pole's

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Speaker 1: podcast and Theo vonn Show, along with the string of

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Speaker 1: others that appeal to young male voters.

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Speaker 2: Unidentified aerial phenomena in this guy.

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Speaker 3: We don't know what they are. Do You? Am I

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Speaker 3: a believer? No? I probably. I can't say I am.

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Speaker 1: But I have met with people that are serious, people

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Speaker 1: that say there's some really strange things that they see

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Speaker 1: flying around out there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I noticed at the events. You don't drink, and

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Speaker 2: you don't drink or smoke, right, I don't drink or smell.

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Speaker 3: You never have, No, I never've had a great brother

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Speaker 3: who taught me a lesson.

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Speaker 2: Don't drink.

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Speaker 1: Harris's team is also reportedly in talks with the Joe

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Speaker 1: Rogan team too. Recent polling data shows a tight race

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Speaker 1: between Harris and Trump. According to the latest national averages,

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Speaker 1: Harris holds a very slim lead of forty seven percent

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Speaker 1: to Trump's forty five with a three percent margin of era. However,

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Speaker 1: the race remains too close to call in several swing states.

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Speaker 1: Harris has been leveraging star power to energize her base

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Speaker 1: and attract younger voters. In Detroit, Grammy winning but also

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Speaker 1: recently canceled singer Lizzo joined the campaign trail, passionately endorsing

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Speaker 1: Harris and encouraging early voting.

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Speaker 2: I'm proud to say.

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Speaker 4: That I voted, I voted early, and I voted for

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Speaker 4: Kamala Harris. There are some who say that America is

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Speaker 4: not ready for a woman president. So if you ask

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Speaker 4: me if America is ready for his first woman president,

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Speaker 4: only got one thing to say. It's about them.

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Speaker 1: The vice president. Celebrity support didn't stop there. In Atlanta, Georgia,

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Speaker 1: R and B superstar Usher accompanied Harris, helping to criticize

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Speaker 1: Trump's rhetoric and mobilized voters. Perhaps the most touching moment

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Speaker 1: came when music legend Stevie Wonders surprised Harris at Divine

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Speaker 1: Faith Ministries in Jonesborough, performing his classic Higher Ground and

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Speaker 1: then singing Happy Birthday to the VP, who turned sixty

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Speaker 1: on Sunday. The role of celebrity endorsements in this election

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Speaker 1: cycle has been significant, particularly for the Harris Walds campaign.

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Speaker 1: Besides Lizzo Usher and Stevie wonder Harris has garnered support

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Speaker 1: from other high profile figures such as Taylor Swift, Oprah Winfrey,

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Speaker 1: and George Clooney. Country singer Willie Nelson said he'll be

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Speaker 1: hosting a cannabis community zoom to drum up support for Harris,

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Speaker 1: alongside stars like Willby Goldberg. UFC D president Dana White

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Speaker 1: has endorsed Trump, as her actors Dennis Quaid, Angelina Jolie's Dad,

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Speaker 1: John Voight, and Roseanne Barr. Kid Rock and Azalea Banks

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Speaker 1: have also backed the Trump Dvance team. However, the impact

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Speaker 1: of these endorsements on voter behavior remains uncertain, with a

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Speaker 1: recent Quinnipac University poll suggesting that over seventy six percent

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Speaker 1: of respondents felt that Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris would

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Speaker 1: not influence their voting decision. Harris, on the campaign trail

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Speaker 1: has been emphasizing unity and progressing her speeches, drawing a

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Speaker 1: stark contrast to what she describes as divisive politics in.

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Speaker 5: This moment across our nation, what we do see are

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Speaker 5: some who tried to deepen division among us, spread hate,

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Speaker 5: soul fear, and cause chaos. There are those who suggest

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Speaker 5: that the measure of the strength of a leader is

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Speaker 5: based on who you beat down instead of what we know,

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Speaker 5: which is the true measure of the strength of the

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Speaker 5: leader is based on who you lift up.

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Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Trump has taken a different approach, focusing on personal

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Speaker 1: attacks and controversial statements. So you have to tell Kamala

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Speaker 1: Harris that you've had enough that you just can't take

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Speaker 1: it anymore.

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Speaker 5: We can't stand you.

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Speaker 3: Your ash Vice president the worst, You're the worst Vice President. Kamala,

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Speaker 3: You're fired.

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Speaker 1: Get the hell out of here, fired, Get out of here.

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Speaker 1: In a surprising move, the former president visited a McDonald's

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Speaker 1: in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The visit was part

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Speaker 1: of Trump's strategy to challenge Harris's claim of having worked

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Speaker 1: at a McDonald's during her college years, an assertion he

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Speaker 1: disputes without providing evidence. At the McDonald's, Trump donned an

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Speaker 1: apron and worked the drive through. The former president has

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Speaker 1: also been focusing on key issues such as the economy

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Speaker 1: and immigration, while continuing to make unsubstantiated claim the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty election. When asked about accepting the results of the

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Speaker 1: upcoming election, Trump told reporters he would if it's a

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Speaker 1: fair election, raising concerns amongst experts about potential challenges to

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Speaker 1: the election results. Both campaigns are also dealing with challenges.

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Speaker 1: Harris faces criticism over the administration's handling of the Israel

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Speaker 1: Gaza conflict, particularly from Arab and Muslim communities in Michigan.

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Speaker 2: Trump, on the other hand, is grappling with.

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Speaker 1: Reports of potential issues in his ground operations in Arizona

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Speaker 1: and Nevada, with concerns about the effectiveness of door knocking efforts.

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Speaker 1: He's also facing yet another lawsuit. The Central Park Five

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Speaker 1: is suing the former president, who said in the presidential

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Speaker 1: debate that they'd killed a woman and pleaded guilty to it.

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Speaker 1: They were all later exonerated Amelia Lester is the deputy

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Speaker 1: editor at Foreign Policy magazine Amelia. When Harris announced that

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Speaker 1: she was running for president, she saw quite a huge

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Speaker 1: jump in her polling numbers, but that all seems to

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Speaker 1: have tapered off now and is almost level with Trump.

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Speaker 2: What happened there?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's very close nationwide, Harris leeds by about two

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Speaker 3: points if you put all the polls together. But to

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Speaker 3: give you an idea of how meaningless that is, the

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Speaker 3: popular vote winner has lost in five different elections, so

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Speaker 3: that national lead doesn't amount to much. Instead, we should

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Speaker 3: be looking at where the candidates are in the battleground states,

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Speaker 3: and to give you an idea of how close this is,

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Speaker 3: the winner has to get to two hundred and seventy

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Speaker 3: electoral votes, and right now, one hundred of those votes

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Speaker 3: are completely neck and neck. That is, the polls are

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Speaker 3: within half a point for one hundred of those votes.

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Speaker 3: So it is a real toss up.

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Speaker 1: For those who don't follow us politics closely but are interested,

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Speaker 1: can you give us like a layman's terms explanation?

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Speaker 2: Is the difference between.

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Speaker 1: The popular vote versus the electoral college and how that

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Speaker 1: kind of I know it's a complex system, but can

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Speaker 1: you give us an idea of how it works.

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Speaker 3: So there's a thing called the Electoral College. This came

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Speaker 3: about because when the United States became the United States,

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Speaker 3: communication was kind of hard. To get from California to

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Speaker 3: New York would have taken you weeks by horse and carriage.

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Speaker 3: So what they did was they said that the election

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Speaker 3: is always going to be in November, but then we're

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Speaker 3: going to have a couple of months to count the

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Speaker 3: votes and to get everyone together in Washington, d c.

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Speaker 3: In January, and then in January, the so called electoral

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Speaker 3: College will ultimately vote for the president. The electoral College

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Speaker 3: is divided up into each state getting a certain number

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Speaker 3: of votes in the electoral College. And this is why

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Speaker 3: smaller states like a South Dakota or a North Dakota

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Speaker 3: matter in some ways just as much, if not more, than,

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Speaker 3: say a California, which is, if it was a country

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Speaker 3: on its own, it would be the fifth biggest economy

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Speaker 3: in the world. In a federal election in the US,

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Speaker 3: it doesn't even matter because California always votes for the Democrats.

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Speaker 3: So the smaller states that sometimes vote Democrats sometimes vote

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Speaker 3: Republican become incredibly important in this kind of system.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So who are we keeping our eye on If

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Speaker 1: that's the case. We know that Pennsylvania has definitely been

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Speaker 1: a batterground. We've seen the candidates go there and try

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Speaker 1: and voters over. So aside from Pennsylvania, what states are

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Speaker 1: we keeping an eye on here?

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Speaker 3: Yes, so we're keeping an eye on Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia,

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Speaker 3: and Arizona. There are seven battleground states and in most

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Speaker 3: of those states, Trump and Harris are essentially tied. In

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Speaker 3: the last week or two, in fact, Harris's lead in

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Speaker 3: some of those states, her very very small lead has evaporated.

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Speaker 3: So this is why in the last week or so

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Speaker 3: Democrats have been really worried. Trump now has a slight

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Speaker 3: edge in a majority of those states that I've just named.

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Speaker 3: Pennsylvania is way too close to count. But for example, Wisconsin,

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Speaker 3: which is the seventh of these states, that was won

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Speaker 3: by Joe Biden in twenty twenty by just twenty thousand votes,

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Speaker 3: which is really nothing, And the polls right now are

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Speaker 3: showing that the lead that Trump has in those states

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Speaker 3: is smaller than the lead that Biden had in twenty twenty,

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Speaker 3: which means we could be looking at less than twenty

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Speaker 3: thousand votes in these states.

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Speaker 1: Are we concerned that the fact that these margins are

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Speaker 1: so narrow we might end up with another situation where

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Speaker 1: if Trump does actually lose by very very small margins,

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Speaker 1: that there'll be another I didn't really lose situation.

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Speaker 3: Oh, I've got an even better nightmare scenario for you,

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Speaker 3: which is that some analysts say that there's a possibility

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Speaker 3: that the electoral college could be tied.

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Speaker 2: So what does that mean?

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Speaker 3: So what that means is that they could both get

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Speaker 3: to the same number of votes in the electoral College

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Speaker 3: and no one could get to two seventy.

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Speaker 1: So do we have a whole other has never really happened?

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Speaker 1: Do we have a whole other year of campaigning? And

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Speaker 1: like they have a do over what happens.

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Speaker 3: So in that case, the constitution says that the vice

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Speaker 3: president has the deciding vote.

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Speaker 2: But hang on, isn't Kamala Harris the vice president?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah? Can you imagine the conspiracy theories when the

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Speaker 3: vice president who needs to validate and be the tie

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Speaker 3: breaking vote is in fact the presidential candidate. Yeah, he's

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Speaker 3: going to explode thinking about it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I think they really need to rethink the way

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Speaker 1: that they hold these elections. But anyway, so I think

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Speaker 1: if we can't look at polling as a real measure

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Speaker 1: at this point because it is our neck and neck,

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Speaker 1: there are the ways that we can look at the

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Speaker 1: current situation with both candidates and kind of figure out

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Speaker 1: who might be the likely one to win.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So one way we can look at that is

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Speaker 3: to watch certain key groups of voters. And there's already

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Speaker 3: been some analysis that Harris it looks like she hasn't

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Speaker 3: been able to pull together the very diverse coalition that

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Speaker 3: Biden gathered in twenty twenty. So if we break it

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Speaker 3: down a little bit, She's increased her lead amongst white

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Speaker 3: college grads, meaning white university graduates, but she has fewer

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Speaker 3: white working class voters. She has fewer Black voters. She

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Speaker 3: has more than when Biden dropped out, but she hasn't

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Speaker 3: gotten to where he was in twenty twenty. She has

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Speaker 3: fewer Hispanic voters than when Biden dropped out. She has

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Speaker 3: fewer young voters, and Democrats have had the last few elections.

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Speaker 3: So even though when she came on there was this

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Speaker 3: big spike and support amongst young people, that spike and

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Speaker 3: support hasn't gotten her to the place where even Biden

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Speaker 3: was in twenty twenty, and she's also lost senior voters.

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Speaker 3: So overall, her lead with women is similar to Biden's

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty, but she has significantly fewer men supporting her.

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Speaker 3: So that's why a lot of people are worried, even

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Speaker 3: separate from the polls, who want a Harris victory, because

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Speaker 3: when you break it down by group, it's starting to

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Speaker 3: look like she hasn't been able to assemble that very big,

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Speaker 3: tent amount of support that Biden had.

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Speaker 1: Can we do a quick comparison between where we are

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Speaker 1: with this election as opposed to where we were at

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Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty when Trump did actually lose. Can

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Speaker 1: we look at the numbers and draw some comparisons.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I have to say, I think that goes

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Speaker 3: against where basically everyone else is at. What people were

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Speaker 3: really worried about with the Pole is they show them

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Speaker 3: neckconnect and they show Harris with this slight national lead.

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Speaker 3: But Trump voters have consistently eluded polsters, and there are

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Speaker 3: a few theories as to why that is. Some people

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Speaker 3: say that Trump voters are just less likely to respond

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Speaker 3: to polsters because they don't believe in institutions, they don't

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Speaker 3: like polsters, they don't like journalists, they don't like government.

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Speaker 3: And then there's also the problem of whether or not

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Speaker 3: Trump voters answer the phone at all, whether they'll show

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Speaker 3: up on election day. So I think the consensus is that,

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Speaker 3: because Harris is only showing this slight lead in the

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Speaker 3: national polls, and in fact in the battleground states, is

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Speaker 3: running behind Trump in a majority of them, given that

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Speaker 3: propensity for Trump voters not to respond to polsters, the

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Speaker 3: consensus is that it's looking good for Trump. So I'm

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Speaker 3: kind of surprised to hear that.

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Speaker 1: How much faith do we put in Alan Lickman. He's

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Speaker 1: the guy, obviously, who's predicted US presidents over and over

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Speaker 1: and over again, and he has this very specific scientific

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Speaker 1: method that he puts together, and at this point he's

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Speaker 1: pipped Harris to win by quite a comfortable margin.

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Speaker 3: I think so, But because those margins are so small,

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Speaker 3: there's another wildcard that I need to throw in the

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Speaker 3: mix here if they haven't been enough already. I mentioned

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Speaker 3: the younger voters and how Harris hasn't yet quite rallied

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Speaker 3: them around to the same extent that Biden did in

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty young voters. We don't know whether or not

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Speaker 3: they'll show up on election day or not. They're the

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Speaker 3: most unpredictable group. And given that Harris is leaning on

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Speaker 3: the young voters right now and a lot of her

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Speaker 3: victory is going to depend on those young voters showing up,

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Speaker 3: we can't really predict whether or not they're going to

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Speaker 3: bolster the coalitions. So I guess that's one reason to

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Speaker 3: maybe say she might have the ultimate edge on election day.

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Speaker 3: But I think setting that aside, all signs are probably

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Speaker 3: pointing towards Trump Amelia.

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Speaker 1: Who's the better choice for Australia in this as far

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Speaker 1: as our economic and political ties to the US? Who

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Speaker 1: do we benefit from more Trump as president again or Harris?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a really interesting question, And I

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Speaker 3: should say the outset that part of Donald Trump's appeal

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Speaker 3: and also embedded in his DNA, is an essential unpredictability.

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Speaker 3: So anything I say here is based on what he's

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Speaker 3: done in the past, and it's not to say that

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Speaker 3: he will continue those patterns into the future. Broadly speaking,

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Speaker 3: though Trump's foreign policy is very transactional. He asks what

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Speaker 3: can countries do for me? Harris, by contrast, continues in

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Speaker 3: a lineage of Democrats who stress the importance of alliances. Now, obviously,

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Speaker 3: Australia is an important ally of the United States, and

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Speaker 3: under President Biden, Australia in the US have grown even

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Speaker 3: closer together through deals like Orcus. A Harris administration would

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Speaker 3: continue that close relationship. A Trump administration would ask us

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Speaker 3: to make the case again as to why we should

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Speaker 3: be allied with each other. For Australia, I think it's

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Speaker 3: probably better to have a superpower in its corner than not.

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Speaker 3: But like I say, Australia's leaders only to make the

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Speaker 3: case to Trump that he needs us. He's very susceptible

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Speaker 3: to flattery and personal overtures, so I'm sure that Australia's

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Speaker 3: leaders could pull that off. You only have to think

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Speaker 3: about how Greg Norman set up the first phone call

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Speaker 3: between Trump and macam Turnbull to see how important those

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Speaker 3: personal connections are to him. And I think depending on

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Speaker 3: who was leading Australia at the time, that would also

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Speaker 3: impact the relationships. So if it was, for instance, a

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Speaker 3: Peter Dutton, because he'd be more ideologically aligned with Trump,

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Speaker 3: he'd be more successful in bringing Australia in the US

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Speaker 3: closer together in terms of China, which I think, as

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Speaker 3: you mentioned too, Trump is likely to take an even

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Speaker 3: more belligerent approach to China than the Biden administration has.

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Speaker 3: Now whether Australia follows that lead again depends on the

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Speaker 3: leadership in Australia at the time. Economically, the US dock

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Speaker 3: market reached record highs under Trump, and that's probably good

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Speaker 3: for Australia too. But one other thing to mention about

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Speaker 3: Trump economically is that he said he would slap these

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Speaker 3: enormous tariffs on all imports, not just Chinese imports, which

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Speaker 3: is what he's currently doing, and that would of course

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Speaker 3: be bad news for Australian producers who are looking to

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Speaker 3: get into the US market.

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Speaker 1: We'll be continuing to cover the US election as it

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Speaker 1: unfolds with Amelia in both this Your Morning Update and

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Speaker 1: again in the afternoons when the election begins in earnest

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Speaker 1: on November five in the States.

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Speaker 2: The quickie is produced

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Speaker 1: By me Claire Murphy and our executive producer Taylor Strano,

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Speaker 1: with audio production by Teak and Sadler.