WEBVTT - Brace Yourself, An Aussie Election Is Coming And It Could Get Trumpy 0:00:21.290 --> 0:00:24.330 So much you're listening to Amma Mia podcast. 0:00:25.170 --> 0:00:28.410 Mama Mea acknowledges the traditional owners of the land. We 0:00:28.570 --> 0:00:31.850 have recorded this podcast on the Gadigul people of the 0:00:31.970 --> 0:00:35.650 Eora Nation. We pay our respects to their elders past 0:00:35.730 --> 0:00:39.330 and present, and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and 0:00:39.410 --> 0:00:40.930 Torres Strait Islander cultures. 0:00:42.050 --> 0:00:42.170 Hi. 0:00:42.330 --> 0:00:45.090 I'm Claire Murphy from Momma MEAs twice daily news podcast, 0:00:45.170 --> 0:00:45.690 The Quickie. 0:00:46.170 --> 0:00:48.250 Look. We have talked a heck of a lot. 0:00:48.170 --> 0:00:50.770 About US politics over the last six months, But just 0:00:50.930 --> 0:00:53.330 in case you missed this, are you aware there's an 0:00:53.330 --> 0:00:56.130 Australian federal election coming up just around the corner. 0:00:56.610 --> 0:00:58.370 What can we expect to be the make or break 0:00:58.490 --> 0:01:00.370 issues for our own pollies next year? 0:01:00.890 --> 0:01:03.370 And what aspects of the recent US election can we 0:01:03.610 --> 0:01:07.450 already see creeping into our own political sphere. In this episode, 0:01:07.530 --> 0:01:10.010 I catch up with Mark Kenny from the Democracy Sausage 0:01:10.050 --> 0:01:13.410 podcast and our US correspondent Amelia Lester to find out 0:01:13.570 --> 0:01:21.610 just how trumpy our own election can get. I'm Claire Murphy. 0:01:21.730 --> 0:01:25.410 This is Muma MEA's twice daily news podcast, The Quickie E. 0:01:25.450 --> 0:01:28.970 Brace yourselves. Another election is coming and this time you'll 0:01:29.050 --> 0:01:31.530 have to get yourself to the ballot box. With Australians 0:01:31.570 --> 0:01:33.730 heading to the polls sometime in the next six months. 0:01:34.370 --> 0:01:36.570 But the question has been just how much will the 0:01:36.730 --> 0:01:41.170 US election influenced the Australian election. There are already reports 0:01:41.210 --> 0:01:44.210 that Liberals are reaching out to Republicans and Opposition leader 0:01:44.250 --> 0:01:48.970 Peter Dutton is already using some very familiar Trumpy terminology. Next, 0:01:49.010 --> 0:01:51.530 we'll catch up with our US correspondent Amelia Lester and 0:01:51.610 --> 0:01:54.730 our Australian political expert Mark Kenny we find out whether 0:01:54.770 --> 0:02:07.050 we're also heading down a Trumpian light. You might have 0:02:07.130 --> 0:02:09.290 heard that right before Parliament broke up for the year 0:02:09.410 --> 0:02:12.810 last week, the government managed to squeeze thirty one pieces 0:02:12.810 --> 0:02:16.930 of legislation through, from housing initiatives to the under sixteen 0:02:17.010 --> 0:02:20.130 social media band bills. Are being crammed through the system 0:02:20.210 --> 0:02:20.850 left and right. 0:02:21.410 --> 0:02:22.450 So why the mad rush? 0:02:23.250 --> 0:02:26.290 Well, sometime between now in May seventeen, twenty twenty five, 0:02:26.530 --> 0:02:29.250 there will be a federal election and both parties are 0:02:29.290 --> 0:02:32.930 gearing up for the fight. This next Australian election comes 0:02:32.970 --> 0:02:35.610 on the heels of a US election which has returned 0:02:35.650 --> 0:02:38.330 Donald Trump to the White House, and according to reports, 0:02:38.570 --> 0:02:41.890 the liberals are hoping to replicate that return to conservatism 0:02:41.970 --> 0:02:45.650 here too. Mark Kenny is a professor of Australian Studies 0:02:45.690 --> 0:02:49.010 at the Australian National University's College of Arts and Social Sciences. 0:02:49.330 --> 0:02:51.650 He's also the host of the weekly politics and public 0:02:51.690 --> 0:02:55.930 affairs podcast Democracy Sausage with Mark Kenny. Mark, do you 0:02:56.010 --> 0:02:57.890 think it's true that the Liberal Party has been reaching 0:02:57.930 --> 0:03:00.850 out to Republican strategists for guidance on how to win 0:03:00.930 --> 0:03:01.770 this upcoming election. 0:03:02.210 --> 0:03:02.410 Yeah. 0:03:02.450 --> 0:03:06.130 Look, I think it's certainly true that conservatives in democracies 0:03:06.210 --> 0:03:08.090 do tend to talk to each other, and it's also 0:03:08.210 --> 0:03:10.690 the case for the progressive side of politics of the 0:03:10.730 --> 0:03:13.890 British Labor Party and the Democrats and the Australian Labor 0:03:13.970 --> 0:03:17.890 Party and probably the Canadians. They tend to swap learnings 0:03:18.170 --> 0:03:20.330 and get some sort of read on what's happening in 0:03:20.370 --> 0:03:23.290 the electorate and how to measure what's happening in the electorate, 0:03:23.370 --> 0:03:25.850 which is really important. And I think there's no doubt 0:03:25.930 --> 0:03:29.170 that what we've seen in the US is the very 0:03:29.290 --> 0:03:32.890 effective political capitalization, if I can put it like that, 0:03:33.170 --> 0:03:37.010 on a public sentiment of complaint, of disaffection of this 0:03:37.210 --> 0:03:41.490 engagement of being left behind, an anti establishment sort of 0:03:41.610 --> 0:03:46.410 sentiment that is now very very important within democratic politics. 0:03:46.490 --> 0:03:51.090 So I'm not surprised that the Conservatives in Australia would 0:03:51.130 --> 0:03:54.210 take great heart from what happened in the US because 0:03:54.250 --> 0:03:57.410 the polls, of course showed that it was very, very close. 0:03:57.650 --> 0:04:01.330 There was a real expectation once the Democrats dropped Biden 0:04:01.370 --> 0:04:05.130 and went to Kamala Harris. There was huge early enthusiasm 0:04:05.250 --> 0:04:07.690 for that, but obviously there was something happening in the 0:04:07.770 --> 0:04:12.130 electorate that that enthusiasm didn't pick up and people are 0:04:12.330 --> 0:04:15.850 prepared to ditch governments. I've called it the era of 0:04:16.010 --> 0:04:18.810 pick and flick, or pick and kick rather than pick 0:04:18.850 --> 0:04:21.210 and stick, which is what's been the trend in Australia 0:04:21.330 --> 0:04:24.410 over coming on close to a century of electoral history 0:04:24.410 --> 0:04:27.650 where we don't have a single term federal governments nowadays. 0:04:27.850 --> 0:04:30.290 Who knows, It could well be that the Alban Ezy 0:04:30.330 --> 0:04:34.450 government is the first one term government since nineteen thirty two. 0:04:35.010 --> 0:04:37.570 What is happening in the Australian electorate do you think, Mark, 0:04:37.610 --> 0:04:41.770 are we looking disenfranchised like our US friends are? I mean, 0:04:41.810 --> 0:04:44.010 a cost of living crisis will do that to you. 0:04:44.810 --> 0:04:49.250 Are we feeling like maybe Australians are preparing for a switch. 0:04:49.610 --> 0:04:52.410 Well, that does seem to be the zeitgeist really, that 0:04:52.530 --> 0:04:56.690 there's this sense of people being left behind of the 0:04:56.890 --> 0:05:02.450 market essentially not working for everyone, of policy being determined 0:05:02.530 --> 0:05:07.290 by elites, as they're often described, which includes the media 0:05:07.530 --> 0:05:12.530 and government and public servants and universities and essentially all 0:05:12.610 --> 0:05:17.130 the kind of heavy weights of policy determination in Australia 0:05:17.570 --> 0:05:20.570 for a long time, there's a sense that that isn't work. 0:05:20.610 --> 0:05:22.690 Looking for as many people now in Australia, I think 0:05:22.770 --> 0:05:25.970 it's a milder form than we see in the US. 0:05:26.330 --> 0:05:28.850 That's because we have a much better social safety net. 0:05:28.930 --> 0:05:32.210 We have, of course universal health insurance in the form 0:05:32.250 --> 0:05:37.330 of Medicare, and we have a calmer kind of and 0:05:37.490 --> 0:05:42.050 more moderate kind of political debate because we have compulsory 0:05:42.130 --> 0:05:45.930 preferential voting in this country and an unimpeachable national electoral 0:05:46.170 --> 0:05:50.690 system that is the Australian Electoral Commission, highly respected, in fact, 0:05:50.730 --> 0:05:54.730 by some surveys, the most respected institution in the country. 0:05:54.810 --> 0:05:56.490 And all of these things I think add up to 0:05:57.050 --> 0:06:00.090 a less febrile situation than we see in the US. 0:06:00.210 --> 0:06:03.570 But it doesn't mean that there isn't a degree of disaffection. 0:06:03.730 --> 0:06:06.890 We know, for example, that younger people are more and 0:06:06.970 --> 0:06:10.690 more disengaged because I think they're disillusioned over things like 0:06:10.770 --> 0:06:14.970 climate change. But they're particularly disengaged because they feel like 0:06:15.090 --> 0:06:18.090 the system is no longer delivering for them. Their parents 0:06:18.170 --> 0:06:21.490 were able to get houses and to accumulate wealth through 0:06:21.530 --> 0:06:24.770 property ownership effectively, but they are not able to break 0:06:24.850 --> 0:06:27.170 into the home ownership and so there's a sort of 0:06:27.410 --> 0:06:32.010 an outsider resentment I think brewing in younger voters, particularly 0:06:32.050 --> 0:06:35.290 among younger men. You put all these things together, I 0:06:35.370 --> 0:06:38.570 think there is still some sort of fertile ground for 0:06:38.730 --> 0:06:41.730 Peter Dutton and the Conservatives to till What was. 0:06:41.770 --> 0:06:44.970 The purpose of Labor pushing so much legislation through at 0:06:45.010 --> 0:06:47.850 the end of the sitting period last week? Does that 0:06:48.090 --> 0:06:51.370 set Labor up in good stead to go into an election? 0:06:51.530 --> 0:06:53.690 Yet? I think one of the reasons that they wanted 0:06:53.730 --> 0:06:55.370 to do that is because. 0:06:55.050 --> 0:06:57.770 They needed to show that the government is active. You know, 0:06:57.850 --> 0:07:00.850 it's interesting to think about the resentment that was directed 0:07:00.930 --> 0:07:04.050 towards Scott Morrison. He was an unpopular Prime minister by 0:07:04.090 --> 0:07:06.050 the end, and there was a very strong kind of 0:07:06.130 --> 0:07:09.810 get rid of Morrison's sentiment at the twenty twenty two election, 0:07:10.010 --> 0:07:14.730 which you know benefited Labor eventually, but Labour's primary vote 0:07:14.810 --> 0:07:17.890 even in that environment was a record low thirty two 0:07:17.930 --> 0:07:22.130 point six percent across the nation. So the situation there 0:07:22.370 --> 0:07:26.490 was quite hostile for the Conservatives but didn't really show 0:07:26.570 --> 0:07:29.850 up in support for Labor except really through the preference system. 0:07:30.050 --> 0:07:33.890 So initially there was this relief that the new Labor 0:07:33.970 --> 0:07:35.570 government was an orderly government. 0:07:35.650 --> 0:07:38.050 You know that it didn't have the Prime minister sworn 0:07:38.090 --> 0:07:40.610 into five ministries, and it didn't have all the kinds 0:07:40.610 --> 0:07:43.570 of scandals and lack of process that was associated with 0:07:43.690 --> 0:07:46.330 the Morrison period. But I think what we've seen since 0:07:46.450 --> 0:07:49.650 with high inflation, high interest rates, the cost of living 0:07:49.770 --> 0:07:52.690 crisis as it is so often described, I think there's 0:07:52.730 --> 0:07:56.290 a level of dissatisfaction with the government and the government 0:07:56.370 --> 0:07:58.730 needs to show that it's out there doing things. And 0:07:59.090 --> 0:08:01.810 it certainly finished with a flourish in terms of getting 0:08:01.930 --> 0:08:03.730 a number of bills through, and that does give it 0:08:03.810 --> 0:08:06.970 a story to tell going into the next election, and 0:08:07.330 --> 0:08:11.530 particularly because some of those things actually go to making 0:08:11.890 --> 0:08:15.490 life easier for people. There's tax cuts and there's more 0:08:15.530 --> 0:08:19.050 money for childcare, and more money for relieved text debts 0:08:19.170 --> 0:08:21.970 and all kinds of things like this. So that gives 0:08:22.010 --> 0:08:24.730 the government a story to tell. Whether it's enough that 0:08:24.930 --> 0:08:27.730 remains to be seen. But the government goes in Nick 0:08:27.810 --> 0:08:31.290 and Nick in the polls, perhaps fractionally behind the Conservatives, 0:08:31.370 --> 0:08:35.370 but with a significant seat buffer, and I think probably 0:08:35.490 --> 0:08:38.650 remains narrow favorite to hold onto government. 0:08:40.570 --> 0:08:42.290 So how are things going over in the US? 0:08:42.410 --> 0:08:42.730 Right now? 0:08:43.250 --> 0:08:45.810 There are tons of posts on social media platforms of 0:08:45.850 --> 0:08:49.290 Americans realizing exactly what some of the things Trump promised 0:08:49.570 --> 0:08:50.170 actually mean. 0:08:50.770 --> 0:08:54.330 I just watched a easily seventy five year old man 0:08:55.090 --> 0:08:57.810 learn what a tariff was in real time. Was he 0:08:57.850 --> 0:09:00.970 stood in line of the health good store. The manager 0:09:01.010 --> 0:09:03.730 of the store, who apparently is his friend, said, oh god, 0:09:03.810 --> 0:09:06.090 and I'm just dried. In January, all of our products 0:09:06.130 --> 0:09:08.330 got to go up twenty five percent, well a majority 0:09:08.370 --> 0:09:09.690 of it. And he goes, the old man goes, what 0:09:09.730 --> 0:09:11.810 are you talking about? He goes, he's putting it in 0:09:12.010 --> 0:09:14.210 terrorists on the first day for Mexico. And you know, 0:09:14.290 --> 0:09:16.410 all of our tomatoes and avocados and everything from Mexico, 0:09:16.530 --> 0:09:18.210 so most of my products is going to go up 0:09:18.250 --> 0:09:18.930 twenty five percent. 0:09:19.130 --> 0:09:20.330 He goes, no, no, no, he's going to put a 0:09:20.410 --> 0:09:21.010 terror on that. 0:09:21.530 --> 0:09:23.890 And the manager looked at him and said, yeah, and 0:09:24.050 --> 0:09:26.690 I have to pay that tariff, So then what do 0:09:26.850 --> 0:09:30.370 you think I'm gonna do? And the old man stepped 0:09:30.410 --> 0:09:32.290 back and looked at him and he goes, you're going 0:09:32.370 --> 0:09:33.570 to pass it on to us. 0:09:35.170 --> 0:09:35.410 Yeah. 0:09:36.690 --> 0:09:39.170 Some have even said their lives have changed forever by 0:09:39.250 --> 0:09:40.810 their choice to vote for Donald Trump. 0:09:41.530 --> 0:09:45.810 So with official my wife is divorcing me. She said 0:09:45.850 --> 0:09:48.530 she couldn't be with the Trump supporter Tony. I have 0:09:48.610 --> 0:09:50.610 it till the end of the day to get my 0:09:50.690 --> 0:09:53.530 shit out of the house, get all my things. 0:09:54.210 --> 0:09:55.050 That's changing lives. 0:09:55.090 --> 0:09:55.850 She has on working back. 0:09:56.210 --> 0:09:58.450 I don't know what to do, and the choices for 0:09:58.490 --> 0:10:02.450 the Trump cabinet keep raising eyebrows. Emelia Lester is a 0:10:02.490 --> 0:10:05.770 deputy editor of Foreign Policy Magazine and MoMA MEA's US 0:10:05.850 --> 0:10:09.330 correspondent Amelia. The last time we spoke, Matt Gates had 0:10:09.370 --> 0:10:11.650 been tapped for Attorney General, but he's now dropped out 0:10:11.650 --> 0:10:14.210 of the running, saying his issues would be too distracting 0:10:14.250 --> 0:10:16.570 for the new president. But what happens to him now? 0:10:16.650 --> 0:10:17.850 Didn't he resign from Congress? 0:10:18.610 --> 0:10:18.810 Yeah? 0:10:18.850 --> 0:10:21.650 But I think he's fine with not being in Congress 0:10:21.690 --> 0:10:26.050 anymore because he's resurfaced on Cameo, which is the website 0:10:26.090 --> 0:10:30.250 where you can hire celebrities and quasi celebrities to send 0:10:30.330 --> 0:10:34.290 birthday messages to friends, and he is now on Cameo 0:10:34.650 --> 0:10:38.410 attracting upwards of four hundred and fifty dollars US and appearance. 0:10:38.490 --> 0:10:39.370 I believe so. 0:10:39.610 --> 0:10:41.930 I think he's going to be just fine, and he'll probably, 0:10:42.090 --> 0:10:45.850 like a lot of these Trump orbit personalities, end up 0:10:45.970 --> 0:10:48.570 with some kind of anchor spot on Fox News as well. 0:10:49.410 --> 0:10:52.130 Any other interesting additions to the cabinet since we last 0:10:52.170 --> 0:10:53.490 caught up depends. 0:10:53.490 --> 0:10:56.330 How you define interesting. I did want to highlight that 0:10:56.650 --> 0:11:01.010 over the weekend, this completely astonishing letter has been circulating 0:11:01.450 --> 0:11:05.090 from Pete heg Seth's mother. Now, we talked about Pete 0:11:05.210 --> 0:11:07.650 hegg Seth, I believe on the show before. He is 0:11:07.890 --> 0:11:10.890 Trump's nominee for the Department of Defense. He's a veteran 0:11:11.210 --> 0:11:13.530 and perhaps more to the point for Trump, a former 0:11:13.610 --> 0:11:17.410 Fox News host. An email leaked I don't know who 0:11:17.530 --> 0:11:19.930 leaked it, but an email that his mother sent him 0:11:20.690 --> 0:11:26.170 guarding allegations of abuse towards Hegsa's former wife and his 0:11:26.370 --> 0:11:28.930 mother basically said, well, she did say you are an 0:11:28.970 --> 0:11:31.890 abuser of women. That's an exact quote. And she went 0:11:31.930 --> 0:11:35.610 on to denounce his character, and she said how disappointed 0:11:35.650 --> 0:11:38.290 she was in him. It'll be interesting to see whether 0:11:38.450 --> 0:11:42.010 the testimony of someone's literal mother moves the needle at all, 0:11:42.130 --> 0:11:45.770 But so far, I don't think I've seen any persuasive 0:11:45.810 --> 0:11:48.490 evidence that he'll be stepping aside. A couple of other 0:11:48.570 --> 0:11:53.810 interesting developments. Trump's appointment for the Department of Labor is 0:11:54.050 --> 0:11:58.450 Laurie Chaves de Rima. Now, she is a former Republican 0:11:58.530 --> 0:12:01.850 politician who lost her latest Congress run to a Democrat. 0:12:01.930 --> 0:12:05.010 But what's interesting about her is that she is an 0:12:05.130 --> 0:12:08.170 advocate for union rights and for labor rights. She is 0:12:08.250 --> 0:12:11.450 supported by the Teamsters, which is the biggest labor union 0:12:11.490 --> 0:12:14.170 in the United States, and she was one of the 0:12:14.250 --> 0:12:17.330 few Republicans to vote for the expansion of labor rights 0:12:17.530 --> 0:12:20.810 through legislation pushed by Democrats in the last Congress. I 0:12:20.930 --> 0:12:24.810 highlight her because I think one interesting thing that's emerging 0:12:24.930 --> 0:12:27.570 beyond Trump loyalists in this cabinet is that there are 0:12:27.610 --> 0:12:30.810 people who have very different perspectives. I think it would 0:12:30.810 --> 0:12:33.890 be a mistake to think that MAGA means just one 0:12:34.010 --> 0:12:37.850 thing or one perspective. As shown by her inclusion, it 0:12:37.970 --> 0:12:41.930 can mean some surprising populist pull in from different parts 0:12:41.970 --> 0:12:44.570 of the political spectrum. The other thing that I just 0:12:44.650 --> 0:12:48.570 wanted to highlight is that he is continuing a trend 0:12:48.810 --> 0:12:51.690 of appointing people who don't believe in vaccines and who 0:12:51.730 --> 0:12:53.570 certainly don't believe in vaccine mandates. 0:12:53.890 --> 0:12:54.810 On top of Robert F. 0:12:54.890 --> 0:12:57.250 Kennedy Junior, who we've talked about before, who has pushed 0:12:57.330 --> 0:13:00.770 that vaccines cause autism, he is also put in charge 0:13:00.850 --> 0:13:03.370 to the FDA, the Food and Drug Administration, that's the 0:13:03.490 --> 0:13:09.290 agency that approves all new medications. He's appointed Martin macquerie, 0:13:09.570 --> 0:13:13.050 who is a very vocal critic of the medical establishment 0:13:13.130 --> 0:13:16.250 and a vaccine mandates during COVID, and that the CDC, 0:13:16.450 --> 0:13:19.370 the Centers for Disease Control, which as the name suggests, 0:13:19.410 --> 0:13:22.130 are in charge of panda response if another one comes. 0:13:22.530 --> 0:13:26.370 He has named Dave Worldon, who is another very vocal 0:13:26.610 --> 0:13:29.650 critic of vaccines who has also pushed to that vaccines 0:13:29.770 --> 0:13:32.970 cause autism. So one emerging trend is this pushed back 0:13:33.050 --> 0:13:37.370 against vaccines, particularly among his appointments to scientific and medical posts. 0:13:38.210 --> 0:13:41.290 I think it's really interesting to know to what is 0:13:41.450 --> 0:13:44.290 Joe Biden doing at this point because all the focus 0:13:44.370 --> 0:13:46.330 is on Donald Trump and his transition back to the 0:13:46.370 --> 0:13:49.210 White House. But is Joe Biden doing anything? Because remember 0:13:49.250 --> 0:13:51.970 when Trump went out, we're all terrified of some of 0:13:52.010 --> 0:13:54.010 the things that he was doing that could potentially have 0:13:54.130 --> 0:13:57.290 long term impacts, like judges on the Supreme Court, which 0:13:57.330 --> 0:13:59.450 has essentially led to the overturning of Roe v. 0:13:59.570 --> 0:14:00.970 Wade. What's Joe Biden doing? 0:14:01.490 --> 0:14:04.730 Yeah, that's actually a great question. He's doing a couple 0:14:04.810 --> 0:14:07.490 of things. The first is that he is on a 0:14:07.570 --> 0:14:10.410 trip to Africa right now. It began on the weekend. 0:14:10.690 --> 0:14:13.090 It's the first trip to Africa by an American president 0:14:13.130 --> 0:14:16.090 since Barack Obama traveled to the continent in twenty fifteen. 0:14:16.570 --> 0:14:18.090 This was a trip he was meant to make in 0:14:18.170 --> 0:14:20.810 twenty twenty two, but which he pushed back because of 0:14:20.850 --> 0:14:22.850 the war in the Middle East. The reason why this 0:14:22.970 --> 0:14:27.450 is significant is because Africa is very much the place 0:14:27.490 --> 0:14:30.210 where the great power competition between China and the United 0:14:30.210 --> 0:14:32.490 States has been playing out. Now, the United States has 0:14:32.530 --> 0:14:35.410 been pretty distracted the last few years and hasn't really 0:14:35.490 --> 0:14:38.290 been able to compete with China in Africa. I guess 0:14:38.370 --> 0:14:41.130 this is kind of a last ditch attempt by Biden 0:14:41.290 --> 0:14:43.850 to nod to that great power competition and to say 0:14:43.890 --> 0:14:45.770 that the United States is still in the game in 0:14:45.850 --> 0:14:49.090 Africa when it comes to foreign investment and the competition 0:14:49.210 --> 0:14:51.370 with China. But it does seem a bit like clustered 0:14:51.410 --> 0:14:53.850 to be doing it in the dying days of his administration. 0:14:54.290 --> 0:14:57.130 Another thing that he's doing internally, that he's being pushed 0:14:57.130 --> 0:15:00.050 to do by Democrats is to appoint as many judges 0:15:00.250 --> 0:15:04.130 as possible in these remaining days in office. In total, 0:15:04.170 --> 0:15:06.930 he's appointed two hundred and twenty one federal judges during 0:15:07.050 --> 0:15:10.250 his tenure, and in these last few days he's going 0:15:10.330 --> 0:15:13.530 to be trying to confirm up to fourteen federal judges, 0:15:14.090 --> 0:15:16.330 and he's hoping that that is going to act as 0:15:16.370 --> 0:15:19.530 a bulwark against some of Trump's more extreme positions in 0:15:19.650 --> 0:15:23.650 the coming administry. Generally, he does have quite a few 0:15:24.210 --> 0:15:27.210 possible avenues to explore in these last few months to 0:15:27.330 --> 0:15:30.210 attempt to shore up his legacy. I think people are 0:15:30.290 --> 0:15:34.810 now feeling like Biden's legacy has been really tarnished by 0:15:35.050 --> 0:15:38.610 being sandwiched between these two Trump administrations. There's a growing 0:15:38.650 --> 0:15:41.130 frustration in the Democratic Party that he should have stood 0:15:41.170 --> 0:15:43.690 aside earlier, and that he should have done that as 0:15:43.810 --> 0:15:46.170 early as the twenty twenty two midterms or thereafter. 0:15:46.850 --> 0:15:49.410 Can I ask you what impact tariffs will have here 0:15:49.450 --> 0:15:52.610 on Australia Because Donald Trump's campaign to become president, he 0:15:52.690 --> 0:15:54.450 talked a lot about tariffs. As it turns out, a 0:15:54.490 --> 0:15:56.930 lot of Americans didn't quite understand how that works and 0:15:57.010 --> 0:16:00.130 how that is going to essentially increase some prices of 0:16:00.290 --> 0:16:02.890 goods and services. So they come into the US and 0:16:03.010 --> 0:16:05.810 we know that there are countries who are desperately scrambling 0:16:05.850 --> 0:16:08.290 to try and ensure this doesn't happen. Justin Trudeau, the 0:16:08.450 --> 0:16:11.130 Canadian Prime Minister's flown to the US to have discussions 0:16:11.170 --> 0:16:11.490 about this. 0:16:12.050 --> 0:16:13.450 Will it impact Australia at all? 0:16:13.810 --> 0:16:16.810 So this is kind of the million or billion dollar 0:16:16.970 --> 0:16:21.690 question that everyone's been asking whether Trump is just using 0:16:21.810 --> 0:16:25.130 these threats of tariffs as leverage to get more favorable 0:16:25.250 --> 0:16:28.490 trade deals out of Mexico and Canada and China. These 0:16:28.530 --> 0:16:30.930 are the countries that he's singled out as wanting to 0:16:31.010 --> 0:16:34.650 put particularly onerous tariffs on. But the short story is, 0:16:34.770 --> 0:16:37.130 if he does follow through on them. It is going 0:16:37.210 --> 0:16:40.490 to hurt Australia. Economists say that it could even lead 0:16:40.490 --> 0:16:42.450 to some kind of global financial crisis. 0:16:42.490 --> 0:16:43.130 And here's why. 0:16:43.890 --> 0:16:47.090 Even if he doesn't put direct tariffs on Australian goods 0:16:47.170 --> 0:16:49.410 coming into the US, there's going to be all these 0:16:49.490 --> 0:16:51.610 knock on effects from the tariffs that he puts in 0:16:51.690 --> 0:16:55.010 other countries. For example, China is Australia's biggest market for 0:16:55.210 --> 0:16:58.330 energy and resources. If China sells fewer goods to the US, 0:16:58.450 --> 0:17:01.130 and it will with tariffs because it will make the 0:17:01.170 --> 0:17:04.210 goods coming in from China more expensive, that means that 0:17:04.450 --> 0:17:07.850 China's demand for Australian energy and resources is going to fall. 0:17:08.530 --> 0:17:11.050 Another knock on effect from the tariffs. We've already seen 0:17:11.090 --> 0:17:13.810 that the US dollar has strengthen compared with the Australian 0:17:13.850 --> 0:17:17.410 dollar in recent days. That's because people are anticipating that 0:17:17.530 --> 0:17:20.050 with the tariffs, the tax cuts, and the deportation of 0:17:20.090 --> 0:17:23.290 millions of US documented workers, basically the US is going 0:17:23.330 --> 0:17:25.730 to have to take on trillions of dollars of more debt. 0:17:26.050 --> 0:17:28.050 That's going to mean that interest rates are going to rise, 0:17:28.170 --> 0:17:29.930 and that's likely going to be a trend that will 0:17:29.970 --> 0:17:33.650 see worldwide, and the Reserve Bank has been predicted that 0:17:33.850 --> 0:17:36.130 it may raise interest rates by as much as a 0:17:36.210 --> 0:17:36.930 point pretty soon. 0:17:37.530 --> 0:17:40.650 We have talked previously about just how much what happens 0:17:40.690 --> 0:17:43.410 in the US influences us here in Australia, and I 0:17:43.490 --> 0:17:47.650 think the question is whether the sentiment around this current 0:17:47.810 --> 0:17:50.850 US election might follow us into the twenty twenty five 0:17:50.930 --> 0:17:54.650 Australian federal election. And we have seen some movements from 0:17:54.810 --> 0:17:57.610 the Liberal Party to reach out to Republican strategists and 0:17:57.930 --> 0:18:01.450 Peter Dutton's uses of words like you know, if you 0:18:01.690 --> 0:18:03.850 feel like you're better off than you were four years ago, 0:18:03.890 --> 0:18:06.290 which is something that Trump had said quite consistently through 0:18:06.370 --> 0:18:09.850 his campaign. Why are we so influenced by what the 0:18:10.050 --> 0:18:11.650 US does here in Australia. 0:18:12.210 --> 0:18:15.770 I think it's because we're pretty similar countries. For a start, 0:18:16.090 --> 0:18:20.890 we share migration and trade, and there's a constant flow 0:18:20.930 --> 0:18:23.890 of people and goods between the two countries. We're both 0:18:24.170 --> 0:18:29.770 relatively young democracies who belong to the same organizations like 0:18:29.850 --> 0:18:34.530 the OECD. And then I think that culturally we consume 0:18:34.570 --> 0:18:37.850 a lot of American contents, so we're sort of bound 0:18:38.010 --> 0:18:40.690 to go in the same direction as America and a 0:18:40.770 --> 0:18:44.210 whole lot of things. Generally, I think that Peter Dutton 0:18:44.250 --> 0:18:47.250 would be crazy not to look at this election and 0:18:47.450 --> 0:18:51.810 draw some lessons on how he can successfully fight Anthony 0:18:51.890 --> 0:18:55.370 Albanesi in the next election. There are clearly these global headwinds, 0:18:55.410 --> 0:18:58.170 not just in the US, but globally. People are feeling 0:18:58.290 --> 0:19:01.490 angry with the pandemic and with the post pandemic response 0:19:01.610 --> 0:19:04.850 by their governments, with the fact that governments spent all 0:19:04.970 --> 0:19:07.650 this money on trying to prop up economies during COVID, 0:19:07.770 --> 0:19:10.770 and now people are facing the consequences of that out 0:19:10.810 --> 0:19:14.330 of control government spending, and clearly Trump has found a 0:19:14.330 --> 0:19:17.130 way to tap into that sense of anger and frustration. 0:19:17.770 --> 0:19:21.210 I think it would only be natural or sense to 0:19:21.370 --> 0:19:24.010 look to the US for campaign strategies. 0:19:25.530 --> 0:19:27.650 So, with all of us gearing up for another Rossie election, 0:19:28.130 --> 0:19:31.770 just how trumpy do our experts feel This upcoming Australian election. 0:19:31.610 --> 0:19:35.290 Will be a lot happens in election campaigns now that 0:19:35.410 --> 0:19:38.930 you don't sort of see the macro level. It's targeted 0:19:39.050 --> 0:19:43.690 messaging online through social media and through social media groups 0:19:43.730 --> 0:19:47.170 and so forth, to particular demographics and even right down 0:19:47.250 --> 0:19:48.610 to particular voters. 0:19:49.090 --> 0:19:51.730 So I think we'll see a fair bit. 0:19:51.650 --> 0:19:58.490 Of exaggeration, misrepresentation, hyperbole, sort of resentment harvesting as a 0:19:58.570 --> 0:20:02.410 result of cost of living and other grievances that people have. 0:20:02.970 --> 0:20:05.290 I don't think we can ignore that, but it's going 0:20:05.330 --> 0:20:08.090 to be quite hard to see all of that, and 0:20:08.450 --> 0:20:11.250 probably it won't all come just from Peter Dunton. 0:20:13.690 --> 0:20:17.370 I don't see how Australia avoids these so called global 0:20:17.490 --> 0:20:21.570 headwinds that have thrown governments out everywhere in the wake 0:20:21.610 --> 0:20:24.210 of the pandemic and the spending that accompanied it. I 0:20:24.370 --> 0:20:27.010 do think that the Liberal party here is going to 0:20:27.090 --> 0:20:29.850 be looking closely at how Trump managed to assemble a 0:20:30.050 --> 0:20:34.650 very diverse and very broad coalition, winning support from young 0:20:34.770 --> 0:20:37.090 people in a way that we might not have expected. 0:20:37.130 --> 0:20:38.970 Weeks that have had this idea for a long time 0:20:39.050 --> 0:20:42.890 that young people were naturally more progressive, and trump selection 0:20:43.450 --> 0:20:46.490 has definitely put the lie to that idea. So I 0:20:46.530 --> 0:20:49.730 would imagine that the Liberals are looking for ways to 0:20:50.130 --> 0:20:53.090 bring together people who maybe haven't even voted liberal before, 0:20:53.130 --> 0:20:55.650 who don't think of themselves as liberal in the same 0:20:55.690 --> 0:20:58.930 way that Trump has by appealing to this idea of 0:20:59.130 --> 0:21:02.010 you're angry, you're frustrated, you're done with the mainstream. You 0:21:02.090 --> 0:21:04.730 want to burn it all down. You're sick of this system, 0:21:05.210 --> 0:21:08.810 this neoliberal system that hasn't worked for you, and I 0:21:08.930 --> 0:21:11.450 think that a populous turn is all but inevitable in 0:21:11.530 --> 0:21:12.410 that kind of climate. 0:21:14.370 --> 0:21:16.010 Thanks for taking the time to feed your mind with 0:21:16.130 --> 0:21:18.850 us today. The Quickie is produced by me, Claire Murphy 0:21:18.930 --> 0:21:22.010 and our executive producer, Tailor Strom, with audio production by 0:21:22.090 --> 0:21:33.650