Speaker 1: This Sunday, the fighting will stop in Gaza after a
Speaker 1: ceasefire ideal was reached between Israel and Hamas. Amongst the ruins,
Speaker 1: thousands of Palestinians have been on the streets celebrating, hugging,
Speaker 1: and singing as the news that an agreement had finally
Speaker 1: been reached after fifteen months of war and a lengthy,
Speaker 1: drawn out negotiation process with many false starts. If the
Speaker 1: agreement holds, desperately need a humanitarianate will reach the people
Speaker 1: of Gaza, many who are living in freezing tents in
Speaker 1: the middle of winter, and dozens of hostages who have
Speaker 1: been held in Gaza will return home to Israel. From
Speaker 1: Schwartz Media, I'm Daniel James. This is seven Am Today.
Speaker 1: Research director at the Washington Institute, Dana Stroll. Dinah was
Speaker 1: the myst senior civilian at the Pentagon focused on the
Speaker 1: Middle East when the war began. She tells us how
Speaker 1: the deal was struck and how Trump and Baden aged
Speaker 1: claiming victory as they are in Obscua is an unlockily alliance.
Speaker 1: It's Friday, January seventeenth. Dinah, thanks so much for joining
Speaker 1: us again. What can you tell us about this deal?
Speaker 1: How was it broken and who was involved in the negotiations.
Speaker 2: Well, it's been the United States, Israel, Hamas. But then
Speaker 2: because the United States and Hamas don't talk to each
Speaker 2: other directly, there's been key regional partners that have been
Speaker 2: part of this, so very specifically Egypt and Cutter. A
Speaker 2: lot of the Hamas political leadership has actually been living
Speaker 2: in Doha, the capital of Cutter, for many, many years now,
Speaker 2: and so what's happened for the past really since October
Speaker 2: eighth is the United States and Egypt and Cutter in
Speaker 2: Israel have talks and then the Cutteries and the Egyptians
Speaker 2: relay that to Hamas and Doha. Somehow those negotiations get
Speaker 2: to the military wing of Hamas inside Gaza, and then
Speaker 2: responses would come back out of Gaza and all the
Speaker 2: way back to those negotiators in Doha. So that's what
Speaker 2: has been going on for more than a year.
Speaker 1: Ky, you walk us through some of the cha aspects
Speaker 1: of the agreement Israels withdrawal from Gaza and the relays
Speaker 1: of hostages.
Speaker 2: Sure, so what's really important about this agreement is that
Speaker 2: it happens in phases, and in each phase the idea
Speaker 2: is that if each side adheres to its commitments, you
Speaker 2: move on to the next phase, which is time bound.
Speaker 2: So this first really critical one is let's call it
Speaker 2: a cessation of hostilities, not a full permanent ceasefire.
Speaker 3: So in the first phase, which is forty two.
Speaker 2: Days, Hamas has agreed to release thirty three Israeli hostages.
Speaker 2: And we don't know how many of the hostages that
Speaker 2: will be in this group are alive and how many
Speaker 2: are actually bodies that are going to be returned, but
Speaker 2: largely these are what's called humanitarian hostages, so women, children, elderly,
Speaker 2: and injured. So what's very notable here is not a
Speaker 2: soldiers that were taken on October seventh, and in exchange
Speaker 2: for Israeli civilians, Israel has agreed to release a number
Speaker 2: of Palestinian prisoners, many of whom have already been convicted
Speaker 2: for acts of terrorism and are being held inside Israel
Speaker 2: in Israeli prisons, and for Israeli soldiers. So here we're
Speaker 2: talking about the female Israeli soldiers that remain inside Gaza.
Speaker 2: Israel will release even more Palestinian prisoners for each of
Speaker 2: those individuals during these forty two days. In addition, there
Speaker 2: will be what's called a surge and humanitarian aid, so
Speaker 2: hundreds and hundreds of trucks going in, and also the
Speaker 2: Israeli defense forces who are now all over Gaza, also
Speaker 2: in populated areas, have committed to move back into a
Speaker 2: buffer zone along the borders of Gaza. That all is
Speaker 2: supposed to happen over the course of these forty two days,
Speaker 2: and if those both sides commitments.
Speaker 3: Are met, then you move on to the next.
Speaker 2: Phase, which is incrementally moving towards a more permanent ceasefire.
Speaker 1: Your relation to the hostages. If thirty three is rally
Speaker 1: hostages are released, how many does that leave in Gaza?
Speaker 1: Do we know?
Speaker 3: We don't know.
Speaker 2: So over two hundred Israelis were taken on October seventh.
Speaker 2: Then of course in this mix of Israelis there were
Speaker 2: also foreign workers like tie workers, and also a lot
Speaker 2: of dual nationals. So what's been one of the most
Speaker 2: frustrating factors over this more than year of negotiations is
Speaker 2: that Hamas either doesn't know or has refused to disclose
Speaker 2: the state So the health status of all of these
Speaker 2: hostages and how many actually are still alive.
Speaker 1: The death toll in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Health
Speaker 1: Ministry is more than forty six six hundred. What immediate
Speaker 1: changes will the deal bring to civilians reminding in Gaza.
Speaker 2: Well, the most immediate change, hopefully if both sides hold
Speaker 2: up to their commitments, is what's described as a surge
Speaker 2: in humanitarian aid, and so what we're talking about here
Speaker 2: is hundreds and hundreds of trucks going into Gaza every
Speaker 2: day that will carry medical supplies, water, food, etc.
Speaker 3: The challenge, of course.
Speaker 2: Is that the scale of need is just so stark
Speaker 2: in Gaza, and the challenge we're going to have going
Speaker 2: forward here is that there's still not a great network
Speaker 2: to make sure that criminal elements, Hamas and others don't
Speaker 2: weaponize or take aid for their own purposes. That actually
Speaker 2: leads to even more of a wartime economy.
Speaker 1: You mentioned the skyle of night in Gaza. What's a
Speaker 1: lock for people still living there now?
Speaker 2: It's it's pretty terrible, very significant percentage of structure, So
Speaker 2: buildings in which Palestinians live are destroyed. A large percentage
Speaker 2: of Palestinians are living in tense right now. Winter is
Speaker 2: coming in Gaza, and so there is a huge problem
Speaker 2: of these temporary shelters not being warm or secure enough
Speaker 2: for what a human beings need to be safe to
Speaker 2: be warm. Many of the hospitals have been taken offline,
Speaker 2: so there's a shortage of medicine. There's a shortage of water.
Speaker 2: A lot of the water treatment facilities are not operating.
Speaker 2: Clean consistent water is a challenge, which means that communicable
Speaker 2: diseases are spreading.
Speaker 1: Over of the past year, there have been many attempts
Speaker 1: TONI guy shad A sayes Faul deal with reports that
Speaker 1: SESEFA deals have actually been closed only too full, iord
Speaker 1: last minute. What's different this time around?
Speaker 2: I think a few things are different. The first, of course,
Speaker 2: is the election of Donald Trump, who you can see,
Speaker 2: I would say, not only in relation to the ceasefire
Speaker 2: in Hamas Israel negotiations, but all over the Middle East.
Speaker 2: You can see all different actors, both friendly to the
Speaker 2: United States and enemies of the United States, like Iran
Speaker 2: positioning and messaging based on anticipation of a very different
Speaker 2: approach by Donald Trump's national security team to issues in
Speaker 2: the Middle East. And he has made different kinds of
Speaker 2: threats since his election that if the hostages weren't released,
Speaker 2: there would be hell to pay.
Speaker 3: If those hostages aren't back. I don't want to hurt
Speaker 3: your negotiation. If they're not back by the time I
Speaker 3: get into office, all hell will break out in the
Speaker 3: Middle East.
Speaker 2: He's also made it very clear to Prime Minister Nettanyahu
Speaker 2: of Israel and his governing coalition that he wants to
Speaker 2: see a ceasefire, that he didn't want to have an
Speaker 2: active military conflict when he gets inaugurated.
Speaker 3: The other really big factor here that I think is.
Speaker 2: Important to mention is that the entire strategic landscape of
Speaker 2: the Middle East is just different today than it was
Speaker 2: in October seventh. So if you think about where we
Speaker 2: were on October seventh, Iran has spent decades investing in
Speaker 2: this network of terrorist groups and proxies all across the region.
Speaker 2: That's Hamas and Gaza, Hasbola and Lebanon, the militias in
Speaker 2: Iraq and Syria, the Huthis and Yemen, and of course
Speaker 2: he had a state partner in bisharl Assad in Syria.
Speaker 2: And you look across the region today, Hamas largely dismantled,
Speaker 2: incapable of launching the kind of attack we saw on
Speaker 2: October seventh. The entire senior leadership of Hesbola and Lebanon
Speaker 2: taken out. We have a new president and Prime Minister
Speaker 2: in Lebanon who definitely don't want to see has Bola
Speaker 2: retain its stranglehold and its Iranian influence there. Bisharlo Assad
Speaker 2: fled Syria is hiding out in Moscow. A new government
Speaker 2: is taking hold in Syria very antagonistic toward Iran. And
Speaker 2: then Iran itself has been targeted by Israel twice over
Speaker 2: the course of twenty twenty four and Iran itself is
Speaker 2: more its territory more vulnerable today than it has been
Speaker 2: at any point in decades.
Speaker 3: So the strategic table is reset and Hamas found itself alone.
Speaker 2: And I think that dynamic changed the openness of the
Speaker 2: leaders to agree, at least in this first phase of
Speaker 2: the ceasefire.
Speaker 1: Coming up after the break, what it will take to Rabia, Gaza, Dina, Bise,
Speaker 1: President bod and then President elect Trump have climbed credit
Speaker 1: for the CEESEFI deal, with Trump saying it could have
Speaker 1: only happened as a result of him winning the presidency.
Speaker 1: The incoming president just posted on his truth social this
Speaker 1: epic ceasefire agreement could only have happened as a result
Speaker 1: of our historic victory in November and President bod saying
Speaker 1: he light at the presass come tools of this plan
Speaker 1: in mighty last year.
Speaker 2: This is a ceasefire agreement I introduced last spring.
Speaker 3: Today Hamas and Israel have agreed to that ceasefire agreement.
Speaker 1: So what role did bith Potties apply it?
Speaker 2: Han?
Speaker 1: Shall we think about American involvement in this deal?
Speaker 2: So I actually think both sides get credit, which isn't
Speaker 2: probably a politically popular thing to say, but here's the reality.
Speaker 3: If you think about.
Speaker 2: The campaign that we just saw in the United States,
Speaker 2: and the vitriol and the really antagonistic rhetoric between the
Speaker 2: Biden and the Trump camps, and the competing visions for
Speaker 2: America's role in the world, we actually saw the two
Speaker 2: national security teams after the election put politics aside and
Speaker 2: work together hand in hand. And I think that's just
Speaker 2: remarkable that they decided to prioritize Israeli lives in Palestinian lives.
Speaker 3: I think this could not have happened.
Speaker 2: Without the active role participation of the government of Cutter
Speaker 2: and the government of Egypt. And I think that it
Speaker 2: reinforces that there really isn't an America alone approach to
Speaker 2: the Middle East.
Speaker 1: Given the closeness of the relationship between Nahu and Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: with bet Yahoo visiting Marilago on several occasions, why didn't
Speaker 1: Nahu waite until Trump was sworn in and give him
Speaker 1: the victory for this the credit for this a rock well.
Speaker 2: First of all, Donald Trump was actually quite clear that
Speaker 2: he wanted the ceasefire before he was inaugurated. So I
Speaker 2: actually think this is Netaya who hearing Trump very clearly.
Speaker 2: Number one and number two. Yes, the ceasefire has been announced.
Speaker 2: Both sides have made their agreements. There's still action that
Speaker 2: needs to be taken within the Israeli government because the
Speaker 2: entire government is going to need to endorse the release
Speaker 2: of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons in order to release
Speaker 2: and get the Israeli hostages home. So you're going to
Speaker 2: see those images, but probably actually on the other side
Speaker 2: of Trump's inauguration.
Speaker 1: With much of Gaza and ruins have phasible, is it
Speaker 1: for civilians to return to what's left?
Speaker 2: Well, civilians can move around. That's part of the agreement
Speaker 2: of this ceasefire. So what the Israelis have done over
Speaker 2: the course of twenty twenty four is position themselves across
Speaker 2: the middle of Gaza, this quarter called the nets a
Speaker 2: Rim Quarter, and what it's done is divide Northern Gaza
Speaker 2: from Southern Gaza. But what's happened now is a lot
Speaker 2: of Palestans from Northern Gaza are stuck in Southern Gaza
Speaker 2: and they can't get back to their homes. And so
Speaker 2: what's going to happen as the ceasefire further gets implemented,
Speaker 2: if we get into these subsequent phases, is that the
Speaker 2: Israel Defense forces are going to remove themselves from this quarter,
Speaker 2: the nets Riam Quarter, and Palestinians are going to be
Speaker 2: able to move back to their homes.
Speaker 3: But the realities they're not going to find much there.
Speaker 2: And Palestinians want safety, they want some sort of basic
Speaker 2: law and order. They want to send their kids to school,
Speaker 2: they want to know that they're going to have medicine, food,
Speaker 2: clean water for their kids, and they want to live
Speaker 2: a good life. And the reality is that the surge
Speaker 2: and humanitarian aid is just not going to be sufficient.
Speaker 2: We need to be talking about massive amounts of international
Speaker 2: support for clearing the rubble, getting unexploded ordinance from this war.
Speaker 2: Out so that kids can run around, people can be safe.
Speaker 2: We need to talk about building materials that need to
Speaker 2: get back in to rebuild, and you need a government
Speaker 2: as some sort of authority, as a civilian governance structure
Speaker 2: to organize that. And there's absolutely no consensus on what
Speaker 2: that would look like to deliver that kind of relief
Speaker 2: to Palestinians.
Speaker 1: Well, we look on in hope. In the meantime, Dinah, thank.
Speaker 3: You so much for Jatan, Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: Ivan not we still just have fragile the dealies. According
Speaker 1: to reporting in the New York Times, Israel's Prime Minister
Speaker 1: Benjamin yet Yahoo has now said he won't finalize the
Speaker 1: ceasefire agreement yet, citing Hamas backing down on some aspects
Speaker 1: of the deal without saying what they were. Hamas has
Speaker 1: denied the claim. Meanwhile, negotiators continued working on details, including
Speaker 1: which Palestinian prisoners would be released in exchange for hostages
Speaker 1: in Gaza. Also in the news today, President Jay Biden
Speaker 1: has delivered his final address while in office. As well
Speaker 1: as highlighting his role in the Israel her Mus cease
Speaker 1: fire deal, he also called for an eighteen year limit
Speaker 1: for the Supreme Court, a ban on dark money funding
Speaker 1: campaigns and said presidents should not be immune to legal
Speaker 1: consequences for crimes committed while in office. President elect Donald
Speaker 1: Trump takes office on Monday, and Bill Shorten's retirement from
Speaker 1: politics has prompted a cabinet reshuffle, with Amanda Rishworth be
Speaker 1: came in the new Minister for the NDS and Finance
Speaker 1: Minister Katie Gallaher picking up the Government Services portfolio. Sports
Speaker 1: and Aged Care Minister Anika Wells has been promoted to
Speaker 1: cabinet following her work on age care reform. Her promotion
Speaker 1: means that the front bench will have an equal split
Speaker 1: of men and women for the first time. Seven Am
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Speaker 1: Ruby Jones, Sarah mcpee, Travis Evans, Zoltanfecho and me Daniel James.
Speaker 1: Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan
Speaker 1: of Envelope Bordio. That's all for now, see you next week.