WEBVTT - Ex-Pentagon official on the Israel-Hamas ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>This Sunday, the fighting will stop in Gaza after a

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<v Speaker 1>ceasefire ideal was reached between Israel and Hamas. Amongst the ruins,

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<v Speaker 1>thousands of Palestinians have been on the streets celebrating, hugging,

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<v Speaker 1>and singing as the news that an agreement had finally

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<v Speaker 1>been reached after fifteen months of war and a lengthy,

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<v Speaker 1>drawn out negotiation process with many false starts. If the

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<v Speaker 1>agreement holds, desperately need a humanitarianate will reach the people

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<v Speaker 1>of Gaza, many who are living in freezing tents in

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<v Speaker 1>the middle of winter, and dozens of hostages who have

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<v Speaker 1>been held in Gaza will return home to Israel. From

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<v Speaker 1>Schwartz Media, I'm Daniel James. This is seven Am Today.

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<v Speaker 1>Research director at the Washington Institute, Dana Stroll. Dinah was

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<v Speaker 1>the myst senior civilian at the Pentagon focused on the

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<v Speaker 1>Middle East when the war began. She tells us how

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<v Speaker 1>the deal was struck and how Trump and Baden aged

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<v Speaker 1>claiming victory as they are in Obscua is an unlockily alliance.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Friday, January seventeenth. Dinah, thanks so much for joining

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<v Speaker 1>us again. What can you tell us about this deal?

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<v Speaker 1>How was it broken and who was involved in the negotiations.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it's been the United States, Israel, Hamas. But then

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<v Speaker 2>because the United States and Hamas don't talk to each

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<v Speaker 2>other directly, there's been key regional partners that have been

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<v Speaker 2>part of this, so very specifically Egypt and Cutter. A

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<v Speaker 2>lot of the Hamas political leadership has actually been living

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<v Speaker 2>in Doha, the capital of Cutter, for many, many years now,

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<v Speaker 2>and so what's happened for the past really since October

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<v Speaker 2>eighth is the United States and Egypt and Cutter in

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<v Speaker 2>Israel have talks and then the Cutteries and the Egyptians

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<v Speaker 2>relay that to Hamas and Doha. Somehow those negotiations get

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<v Speaker 2>to the military wing of Hamas inside Gaza, and then

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<v Speaker 2>responses would come back out of Gaza and all the

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<v Speaker 2>way back to those negotiators in Doha. So that's what

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<v Speaker 2>has been going on for more than a year.

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<v Speaker 1>Ky, you walk us through some of the cha aspects

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<v Speaker 1>of the agreement Israels withdrawal from Gaza and the relays

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<v Speaker 1>of hostages.

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<v Speaker 2>Sure, so what's really important about this agreement is that

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<v Speaker 2>it happens in phases, and in each phase the idea

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<v Speaker 2>is that if each side adheres to its commitments, you

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<v Speaker 2>move on to the next phase, which is time bound.

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<v Speaker 2>So this first really critical one is let's call it

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<v Speaker 2>a cessation of hostilities, not a full permanent ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 3>So in the first phase, which is forty two.

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<v Speaker 2>Days, Hamas has agreed to release thirty three Israeli hostages.

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<v Speaker 2>And we don't know how many of the hostages that

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<v Speaker 2>will be in this group are alive and how many

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<v Speaker 2>are actually bodies that are going to be returned, but

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<v Speaker 2>largely these are what's called humanitarian hostages, so women, children, elderly,

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<v Speaker 2>and injured. So what's very notable here is not a

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<v Speaker 2>soldiers that were taken on October seventh, and in exchange

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<v Speaker 2>for Israeli civilians, Israel has agreed to release a number

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<v Speaker 2>of Palestinian prisoners, many of whom have already been convicted

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<v Speaker 2>for acts of terrorism and are being held inside Israel

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<v Speaker 2>in Israeli prisons, and for Israeli soldiers. So here we're

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<v Speaker 2>talking about the female Israeli soldiers that remain inside Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>Israel will release even more Palestinian prisoners for each of

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<v Speaker 2>those individuals during these forty two days. In addition, there

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<v Speaker 2>will be what's called a surge and humanitarian aid, so

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<v Speaker 2>hundreds and hundreds of trucks going in, and also the

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli defense forces who are now all over Gaza, also

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<v Speaker 2>in populated areas, have committed to move back into a

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<v Speaker 2>buffer zone along the borders of Gaza. That all is

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<v Speaker 2>supposed to happen over the course of these forty two days,

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<v Speaker 2>and if those both sides commitments.

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<v Speaker 3>Are met, then you move on to the next.

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<v Speaker 2>Phase, which is incrementally moving towards a more permanent ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 1>Your relation to the hostages. If thirty three is rally

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<v Speaker 1>hostages are released, how many does that leave in Gaza?

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<v Speaker 1>Do we know?

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<v Speaker 3>We don't know.

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<v Speaker 2>So over two hundred Israelis were taken on October seventh.

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<v Speaker 2>Then of course in this mix of Israelis there were

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<v Speaker 2>also foreign workers like tie workers, and also a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of dual nationals. So what's been one of the most

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<v Speaker 2>frustrating factors over this more than year of negotiations is

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<v Speaker 2>that Hamas either doesn't know or has refused to disclose

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<v Speaker 2>the state So the health status of all of these

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<v Speaker 2>hostages and how many actually are still alive.

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<v Speaker 1>The death toll in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Health

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<v Speaker 1>Ministry is more than forty six six hundred. What immediate

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<v Speaker 1>changes will the deal bring to civilians reminding in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the most immediate change, hopefully if both sides hold

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<v Speaker 2>up to their commitments, is what's described as a surge

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<v Speaker 2>in humanitarian aid, and so what we're talking about here

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<v Speaker 2>is hundreds and hundreds of trucks going into Gaza every

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<v Speaker 2>day that will carry medical supplies, water, food, etc.

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<v Speaker 3>The challenge, of course.

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<v Speaker 2>Is that the scale of need is just so stark

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<v Speaker 2>in Gaza, and the challenge we're going to have going

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<v Speaker 2>forward here is that there's still not a great network

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<v Speaker 2>to make sure that criminal elements, Hamas and others don't

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<v Speaker 2>weaponize or take aid for their own purposes. That actually

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<v Speaker 2>leads to even more of a wartime economy.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned the skyle of night in Gaza. What's a

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<v Speaker 1>lock for people still living there now?

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<v Speaker 2>It's it's pretty terrible, very significant percentage of structure, So

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<v Speaker 2>buildings in which Palestinians live are destroyed. A large percentage

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<v Speaker 2>of Palestinians are living in tense right now. Winter is

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<v Speaker 2>coming in Gaza, and so there is a huge problem

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<v Speaker 2>of these temporary shelters not being warm or secure enough

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<v Speaker 2>for what a human beings need to be safe to

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<v Speaker 2>be warm. Many of the hospitals have been taken offline,

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<v Speaker 2>so there's a shortage of medicine. There's a shortage of water.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of the water treatment facilities are not operating.

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<v Speaker 2>Clean consistent water is a challenge, which means that communicable

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<v Speaker 2>diseases are spreading.

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<v Speaker 1>Over of the past year, there have been many attempts

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<v Speaker 1>TONI guy shad A sayes Faul deal with reports that

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<v Speaker 1>SESEFA deals have actually been closed only too full, iord

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<v Speaker 1>last minute. What's different this time around?

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<v Speaker 2>I think a few things are different. The first, of course,

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<v Speaker 2>is the election of Donald Trump, who you can see,

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<v Speaker 2>I would say, not only in relation to the ceasefire

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<v Speaker 2>in Hamas Israel negotiations, but all over the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>You can see all different actors, both friendly to the

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<v Speaker 2>United States and enemies of the United States, like Iran

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<v Speaker 2>positioning and messaging based on anticipation of a very different

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<v Speaker 2>approach by Donald Trump's national security team to issues in

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East. And he has made different kinds of

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<v Speaker 2>threats since his election that if the hostages weren't released,

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<v Speaker 2>there would be hell to pay.

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<v Speaker 3>If those hostages aren't back. I don't want to hurt

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<v Speaker 3>your negotiation. If they're not back by the time I

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<v Speaker 3>get into office, all hell will break out in the

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<v Speaker 3>Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>He's also made it very clear to Prime Minister Nettanyahu

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<v Speaker 2>of Israel and his governing coalition that he wants to

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<v Speaker 2>see a ceasefire, that he didn't want to have an

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<v Speaker 2>active military conflict when he gets inaugurated.

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<v Speaker 3>The other really big factor here that I think is.

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<v Speaker 2>Important to mention is that the entire strategic landscape of

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East is just different today than it was

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<v Speaker 2>in October seventh. So if you think about where we

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<v Speaker 2>were on October seventh, Iran has spent decades investing in

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<v Speaker 2>this network of terrorist groups and proxies all across the region.

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<v Speaker 2>That's Hamas and Gaza, Hasbola and Lebanon, the militias in

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<v Speaker 2>Iraq and Syria, the Huthis and Yemen, and of course

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<v Speaker 2>he had a state partner in bisharl Assad in Syria.

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<v Speaker 2>And you look across the region today, Hamas largely dismantled,

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<v Speaker 2>incapable of launching the kind of attack we saw on

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<v Speaker 2>October seventh. The entire senior leadership of Hesbola and Lebanon

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<v Speaker 2>taken out. We have a new president and Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 2>in Lebanon who definitely don't want to see has Bola

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<v Speaker 2>retain its stranglehold and its Iranian influence there. Bisharlo Assad

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<v Speaker 2>fled Syria is hiding out in Moscow. A new government

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<v Speaker 2>is taking hold in Syria very antagonistic toward Iran. And

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<v Speaker 2>then Iran itself has been targeted by Israel twice over

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<v Speaker 2>the course of twenty twenty four and Iran itself is

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<v Speaker 2>more its territory more vulnerable today than it has been

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<v Speaker 2>at any point in decades.

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<v Speaker 3>So the strategic table is reset and Hamas found itself alone.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think that dynamic changed the openness of the

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<v Speaker 2>leaders to agree, at least in this first phase of

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<v Speaker 2>the ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break, what it will take to Rabia, Gaza, Dina, Bise,

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<v Speaker 1>President bod and then President elect Trump have climbed credit

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<v Speaker 1>for the CEESEFI deal, with Trump saying it could have

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<v Speaker 1>only happened as a result of him winning the presidency.

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<v Speaker 1>The incoming president just posted on his truth social this

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<v Speaker 1>epic ceasefire agreement could only have happened as a result

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<v Speaker 1>of our historic victory in November and President bod saying

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<v Speaker 1>he light at the presass come tools of this plan

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<v Speaker 1>in mighty last year.

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<v Speaker 2>This is a ceasefire agreement I introduced last spring.

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<v Speaker 3>Today Hamas and Israel have agreed to that ceasefire agreement.

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<v Speaker 1>So what role did bith Potties apply it?

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<v Speaker 2>Han?

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<v Speaker 1>Shall we think about American involvement in this deal?

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<v Speaker 2>So I actually think both sides get credit, which isn't

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<v Speaker 2>probably a politically popular thing to say, but here's the reality.

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<v Speaker 3>If you think about.

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<v Speaker 2>The campaign that we just saw in the United States,

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<v Speaker 2>and the vitriol and the really antagonistic rhetoric between the

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<v Speaker 2>Biden and the Trump camps, and the competing visions for

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<v Speaker 2>America's role in the world, we actually saw the two

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<v Speaker 2>national security teams after the election put politics aside and

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<v Speaker 2>work together hand in hand. And I think that's just

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<v Speaker 2>remarkable that they decided to prioritize Israeli lives in Palestinian lives.

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<v Speaker 3>I think this could not have happened.

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<v Speaker 2>Without the active role participation of the government of Cutter

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<v Speaker 2>and the government of Egypt. And I think that it

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<v Speaker 2>reinforces that there really isn't an America alone approach to

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 1>Given the closeness of the relationship between Nahu and Donald Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>with bet Yahoo visiting Marilago on several occasions, why didn't

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<v Speaker 1>Nahu waite until Trump was sworn in and give him

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<v Speaker 1>the victory for this the credit for this a rock well.

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<v Speaker 2>First of all, Donald Trump was actually quite clear that

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<v Speaker 2>he wanted the ceasefire before he was inaugurated. So I

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<v Speaker 2>actually think this is Netaya who hearing Trump very clearly.

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<v Speaker 2>Number one and number two. Yes, the ceasefire has been announced.

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<v Speaker 2>Both sides have made their agreements. There's still action that

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<v Speaker 2>needs to be taken within the Israeli government because the

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<v Speaker 2>entire government is going to need to endorse the release

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<v Speaker 2>of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons in order to release

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<v Speaker 2>and get the Israeli hostages home. So you're going to

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<v Speaker 2>see those images, but probably actually on the other side

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<v Speaker 2>of Trump's inauguration.

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<v Speaker 1>With much of Gaza and ruins have phasible, is it

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<v Speaker 1>for civilians to return to what's left?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, civilians can move around. That's part of the agreement

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<v Speaker 2>of this ceasefire. So what the Israelis have done over

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<v Speaker 2>the course of twenty twenty four is position themselves across

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<v Speaker 2>the middle of Gaza, this quarter called the nets a

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<v Speaker 2>Rim Quarter, and what it's done is divide Northern Gaza

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<v Speaker 2>from Southern Gaza. But what's happened now is a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of Palestans from Northern Gaza are stuck in Southern Gaza

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<v Speaker 2>and they can't get back to their homes. And so

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<v Speaker 2>what's going to happen as the ceasefire further gets implemented,

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<v Speaker 2>if we get into these subsequent phases, is that the

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<v Speaker 2>Israel Defense forces are going to remove themselves from this quarter,

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<v Speaker 2>the nets Riam Quarter, and Palestinians are going to be

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<v Speaker 2>able to move back to their homes.

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<v Speaker 3>But the realities they're not going to find much there.

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<v Speaker 2>And Palestinians want safety, they want some sort of basic

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<v Speaker 2>law and order. They want to send their kids to school,

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<v Speaker 2>they want to know that they're going to have medicine, food,

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<v Speaker 2>clean water for their kids, and they want to live

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<v Speaker 2>a good life. And the reality is that the surge

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<v Speaker 2>and humanitarian aid is just not going to be sufficient.

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<v Speaker 2>We need to be talking about massive amounts of international

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<v Speaker 2>support for clearing the rubble, getting unexploded ordinance from this war.

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<v Speaker 2>Out so that kids can run around, people can be safe.

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<v Speaker 2>We need to talk about building materials that need to

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<v Speaker 2>get back in to rebuild, and you need a government

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<v Speaker 2>as some sort of authority, as a civilian governance structure

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<v Speaker 2>to organize that. And there's absolutely no consensus on what

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<v Speaker 2>that would look like to deliver that kind of relief

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<v Speaker 2>to Palestinians.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, we look on in hope. In the meantime, Dinah, thank.

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<v Speaker 3>You so much for Jatan, Thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>Ivan not we still just have fragile the dealies. According

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<v Speaker 1>to reporting in the New York Times, Israel's Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 1>Benjamin yet Yahoo has now said he won't finalize the

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<v Speaker 1>ceasefire agreement yet, citing Hamas backing down on some aspects

0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:15.160
<v Speaker 1>of the deal without saying what they were. Hamas has

0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:20.240
<v Speaker 1>denied the claim. Meanwhile, negotiators continued working on details, including

0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:24.160
<v Speaker 1>which Palestinian prisoners would be released in exchange for hostages

0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:33.840
<v Speaker 1>in Gaza. Also in the news today, President Jay Biden

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<v Speaker 1>has delivered his final address while in office. As well

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<v Speaker 1>as highlighting his role in the Israel her Mus cease

0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:41.960
<v Speaker 1>fire deal, he also called for an eighteen year limit

0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:44.800
<v Speaker 1>for the Supreme Court, a ban on dark money funding

0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:48.160
<v Speaker 1>campaigns and said presidents should not be immune to legal

0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:52.160
<v Speaker 1>consequences for crimes committed while in office. President elect Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump takes office on Monday, and Bill Shorten's retirement from

0:14:56.440 --> 0:15:00.040
<v Speaker 1>politics has prompted a cabinet reshuffle, with Amanda Rishworth be

0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:02.920
<v Speaker 1>came in the new Minister for the NDS and Finance

0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:07.280
<v Speaker 1>Minister Katie Gallaher picking up the Government Services portfolio. Sports

0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:10.360
<v Speaker 1>and Aged Care Minister Anika Wells has been promoted to

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<v Speaker 1>cabinet following her work on age care reform. Her promotion

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<v Speaker 1>means that the front bench will have an equal split

0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:19.360
<v Speaker 1>of men and women for the first time. Seven Am

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<v Speaker 1>is a daily show from Schwartz Media on the Saturday Paper.

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:27.280
<v Speaker 1>It's made by Atticus Bastow, Shane Anderson, Christanegate, Eric Jensen,

0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:34.000
<v Speaker 1>Ruby Jones, Sarah mcpee, Travis Evans, Zoltanfecho and me Daniel James.

0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:36.920
<v Speaker 1>Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan

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<v Speaker 1>of Envelope Bordio. That's all for now, see you next week.