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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed Q and A, where we

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Speaker 1: ask and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and every Monday morning we're joined by

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Speaker 1: economist Stephen Coucoulis to look at the week ahead. You'll

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Speaker 1: find him at the kook dot com. That's th ko

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Speaker 1: uk dot com and on ex using the handle the kuk. Stephen,

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Speaker 1: good morning.

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Speaker 2: A good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: A little bit different today's episode because this is the

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Speaker 1: last episode of the week Ahead for the year and

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Speaker 1: it coincides with a fairly quiet week for the economy.

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Speaker 1: And next week it's Christmas, of course, and we moved

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Speaker 1: to a summer format for a few weeks, so there

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Speaker 1: is no better time I think to take a look

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Speaker 1: back at the year that was in economics. I think,

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Speaker 1: if you're up for it, we'll start with the interest rates,

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Speaker 1: because we began the year right with a rate cut

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Speaker 1: in February. We had three rate cuts in total. Now

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Speaker 1: here we are at the end of the year talking

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Speaker 1: about interest rate hikes, as we saw last week when

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank Board met. How did we get from

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Speaker 1: there to here? Stephen?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, I think on the interest rate question. It

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Speaker 2: was fairly clear that the direction in rates during the

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Speaker 2: course of this year. When we looked back to December

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Speaker 2: January twelve months ago, Yeah, the rate cutting scenario was live.

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Speaker 2: It was a matter of how many when and all

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Speaker 2: those sorts of things, and so we had three summers.

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Speaker 2: Thought there'd be more. A few of the people thought

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Speaker 2: there'd be a few less. So, but at the end

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Speaker 2: of the day, Yeah, the rate cutting cycle was delivered,

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Speaker 2: and the reasons were fairly clear. Even though the economy

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Speaker 2: improved a little bit. Yeah, bottom line economic growth was

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Speaker 2: picking up through the course of the year, it was

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Speaker 2: still not a stellar or strong year for the economy.

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Speaker 2: Inflation until very recently had come down, and that allowed

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Speaker 2: or facilitated the RBA in cutting into strates. The unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate crept up a little bit through the year, and

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Speaker 2: that was another reasons why they cut, but it didn't

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Speaker 2: go up a huge amount, which is why some of

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Speaker 2: us who thought there'd be more than the three rate

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Speaker 2: cuts were wrong. That I thought the unemployment would be

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Speaker 2: skewing towards four and three quarters even five percent, and

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Speaker 2: obviously we didn't get there, And I think that explains

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Speaker 2: why we've had the three cuts, no more, no less.

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Speaker 2: Economy again a bit like my old school reports, doing okay,

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Speaker 2: but could be doing better, could be better. And so

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Speaker 2: we had those rate cuts delivered, but no more than

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Speaker 2: the three.

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Speaker 1: It's a bit unusual, isn't it to have such a

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Speaker 1: short rate cutting cycle here, right? Because this is a

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Speaker 1: three interest rate cuts is quite narrow and it's it's

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Speaker 1: turned quite quickly, hasn't it.

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Speaker 2: Let's not conclude that the rate cutting cycle is over

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Speaker 2: despite this market pricing. So I'm just going to take

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a caveat there, Michael. I'm okay,

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Speaker 2: I'm not quite convinced that it's over despite the news

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Speaker 2: and the market pricing. Of course, never fight the markets,

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Speaker 2: or maybe you do fight the markets. I'm not sure.

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Speaker 2: But but but, and this is a critical issue about

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Speaker 2: where the economy is at. As an I A lerned

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Speaker 2: to you know, we haven't finished the year with the

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Speaker 2: economy strong, and in fact, that inflation dilemma that's popped

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Speaker 2: up in the last few months, and I think we've

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Speaker 2: discussed this in recent weeks. It was driven by things

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Speaker 2: that may yet prove to be transitory. Dare I say it? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: we've got to get another quarter or two of data

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Speaker 2: to confirm that. But as the Governor, Michelle Bullock said

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Speaker 2: last week at her press conference when ginnounced rates on hold,

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Speaker 2: they're a little unsure. There was a bank a little

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Speaker 2: unsure about whether that little lift in inflation that we've seen,

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Speaker 2: and we have seen it was due to these temporary factors.

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Speaker 2: So the unwinding of the energy rebate for electricity, the

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Speaker 2: unwinding of some childcare subsidies, you know what we call them,

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Speaker 2: administered prices on excise on those things tobacco, petrol, and alcohol,

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Speaker 2: the things that are unlikely to be continue dude at

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Speaker 2: such a pace in coming quarters. So if we were

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Speaker 2: to see the great cutting cycle turned into a rate

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Speaker 2: hiking cycle next year, it would be a very short

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Speaker 2: cycle in terms of duration and in terms of magnitude.

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Speaker 2: Seventy five points. That's not a rate hike. This is

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Speaker 2: a rate hikers. Paul Hogan might say.

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you about government spending, right and

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Speaker 1: the role that that has played this year, because the

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Speaker 1: government spending has been quite significant, and even if we

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Speaker 1: look at the wages bill for the public sector hit

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Speaker 1: a record this year as well, private sector investment has

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Speaker 1: been steady, very steady, starting to pick up again a

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Speaker 1: little bit. Are we seeing that transition that the Treasurer

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Speaker 1: wanted from the government really driving the economy moving now

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Speaker 1: towards business and business doing if not the lion's share,

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Speaker 1: but a greater share.

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Speaker 2: That transitioning, as you alluded to, I think is happening. Gosh,

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Speaker 2: like all economs, I want to see more data from

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Speaker 2: the national accounts. It just came out what was that

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Speaker 2: two weeks ago? Now we saw the fact that private

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Speaker 2: demand was picking up, and in fact, if we look

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Speaker 2: at total public demand that is, state, local, and federal

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Speaker 2: consumption and investment, it only agrew by about two and

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Speaker 2: a half percent in the year. And that was the

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Speaker 2: week take out the pandemic for a second. That was

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Speaker 2: the weakest increase, the slowest increase in public demand since

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Speaker 2: twenty seventeen, so an eight year low. So again, arguably

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Speaker 2: it's still a little too high. And if what we're

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Speaker 2: hearing from Treasurer Charmers and Finance Minister Katie Gallaha that

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Speaker 2: their budget in May is going to be sort of

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Speaker 2: trimming a bit of spending here and snipping a little

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Speaker 2: few bits off there, we may see public demand being

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Speaker 2: a little bit weaker still. Certainly the state governments appear

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Speaker 2: to be also in a position where they want to

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Speaker 2: repair their So maybe, just maybe we're getting to that

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Speaker 2: point where where public demand as a contributed to growth,

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Speaker 2: and it has been powerful. Yes, you're spot on jobs,

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Speaker 2: on activity, on infrastructure investment, it's been very strong the

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Speaker 2: last couple of years. Maybe we're just going to have

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Speaker 2: a period now where we're in for moderate growth only

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Speaker 2: and some of the public sector cuts or slow downs.

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Speaker 2: If we've got that in spending, we'll actually have a

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Speaker 2: material impact on bottom line economic activity.

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Speaker 1: And I know this is a year in review and

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Speaker 1: not really the week ahead, but as far as the

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Speaker 1: weak ahead goes, we might get a bit of an

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Speaker 1: insight into that this week with my IFO the Mediear

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Speaker 1: Economic and Physical Outlook.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I think it's due this week at the time recording,

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Speaker 2: I haven't heard from the Treasure's Office when it's going

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Speaker 2: to be released. It's one of those ones where they

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Speaker 2: just sort of release it when they're ready.

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Speaker 1: However, always very mysterious, isn't it's a little bit of

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Speaker 1: mystery to government, which is not.

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Speaker 2: Maybe they'll put it out when there's some other scandal.

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Speaker 2: Dare I say it to sort of push it aside.

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Speaker 1: That's very cynical of you, Steve.

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Speaker 2: Look, I am cynical. I'm happy to admit it. But

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Speaker 2: the look. The issue on the fiscal outlook is really

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Speaker 2: updating the numbers, so not just the revised forecast, which

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Speaker 2: of course are critical to how much revenue the government

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Speaker 2: collects and how much they spend in the economy, but

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Speaker 2: any decisions that have been taken as well, so whether

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Speaker 2: there's a few decisions on bits and bobs that have occurred,

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Speaker 2: some foreign aid being paid over to Ukraine, amongst other

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Speaker 2: things that just spring to mind quickly, it'll be an

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Speaker 2: updated on the budget bottom line, and that will be

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Speaker 2: a really important benchmark, if you like, for where this

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Speaker 2: public sector activity is actually going. So I'm going to

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Speaker 2: have a look at it and try to analyze not

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Speaker 2: just the budget bottom line is a definite going to

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Speaker 2: be your twenty twenty five to thirty thirty five billion,

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Speaker 2: important as that is, it's sort of what's its effect

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Speaker 2: on the macro economy.

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Speaker 1: In terms of our year and review. Let's talk about jobs.

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Speaker 1: You did mention this briefly before, but the labor force

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Speaker 1: data came out last week eployment rate at four point

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Speaker 1: three percent. Start of the year, it was four point

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Speaker 1: one percent. If you just looked at those two numbers

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Speaker 1: right in isolation, it's not a huge change behind those.

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Speaker 1: But what's the story behind the scenes and how has

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Speaker 1: it played out for business? Because this is really they

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Speaker 1: bear the brunt of a tight labor market.

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Speaker 2: They do, and either in terms of the skilled shortage

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Speaker 2: so they can't get the talent and the workers that

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Speaker 2: they need to expand their business, or if they do,

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Speaker 2: they've got to pay up. They've got to pay higher wages,

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Speaker 2: which of course they tend to pass on in higher

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Speaker 2: cost which is higher inflation, which is hasn't happened, thank goodness.

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Speaker 2: But yes, you're quite right, the labor market's been very

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Speaker 2: well behaved, including in the data last week. Now we

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Speaker 2: look if we look at the unployted rate, yes it's

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Speaker 2: barely budge. It's up about a quarter of a percentage

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Speaker 2: point over the last year. Not a huge move, but

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Speaker 2: not surprising when we consider the fact that the economy

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Speaker 2: has been muddling along as we were saying moment ago.

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Speaker 2: Within that and this is always the issue with labor

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Speaker 2: force data and other data that you can analyze till

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Speaker 2: the cows come home. But we've got this situation where

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Speaker 2: the monthly rate of employment growth is slowing. Well. Last

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Speaker 2: month we saw the minus twenty one thousand, and if

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Speaker 2: we put a trend line through that, we're seeing that

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Speaker 2: the monthly average increase is only about five thousand a

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Speaker 2: month now, whereas at the start of the year we're

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Speaker 2: at twenty five to thirty thousand a month. So the

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Speaker 2: rate of job creations slowing, full time employments weakening, part

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Speaker 2: time employments hanging up there. So that's sort of supporting

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Speaker 2: the numbers a little bit. But the labor market is

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Speaker 2: still again, it's in decent shape. Four point three percent

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Speaker 2: unemployment rate, we'll take that nine times out of ten,

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Speaker 2: but it's still got this direction of moving hoigh. And

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Speaker 2: again last week we saw a number of these job

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Speaker 2: vacancies and job advertisement series tracking a little bit lower,

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Speaker 2: and that is a really good forward indicator on future

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Speaker 2: demand for jobs and the future unemploy So I'm just

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Speaker 2: sitting here again getting back to the interest rate question.

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Speaker 2: I'm not yet convinced that we've seen the peak in

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Speaker 2: the unemployment rate, and if we were in the months

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Speaker 2: ahead to see it tick up to that four and

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Speaker 2: a half. Heaven forbid anything more than that. Then that

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Speaker 2: rate cut all of a sudden, I say, it goes

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Speaker 2: onto the agenda, but the rate hike certainly gets off

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Speaker 2: the agenda. Put it that way.

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Speaker 1: All right, we are pretty much out of time. I've

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Speaker 1: got a couple of things I want to mention to you,

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Speaker 1: but I want you to tell me how you would

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Speaker 1: describe twenty twenty five for these in just one sentence.

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Speaker 1: All right, okay, house prices.

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Speaker 2: Incredibly strong, buoyant and accelerating.

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Speaker 1: Through the year, Household spending.

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Speaker 2: Encouragingly moving higher as householders have had a positive cash

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Speaker 2: flow from rate cuts, wage increases, and a wealth effect

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Speaker 2: from the fact that those of us who are lucky

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Speaker 2: enough to own a house are feeling richer.

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Speaker 1: And this one might be hard to do in just

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Speaker 1: one sentence, but productivity.

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Speaker 2: It's easy to do. In a word, still ordinary, but

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Speaker 2: with a hint, just a hint of a turning point

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Speaker 2: a little bit higher. And if I can have a

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Speaker 2: second sentence, please go for it. It is what we

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Speaker 2: saw with the weaker or softer labor force numbers, and

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Speaker 2: with GDP picking up. By definition, that will be translated

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Speaker 2: into higher productivity. So maybe we've just got through that

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Speaker 2: period where we had rotten productivity. And okay, we need

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Speaker 2: more than just six months or twelve months of higher

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Speaker 2: productivity to be to be doing happy dance down the street.

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Speaker 2: But maybe this is the turning point.

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Speaker 1: It has been a very big twelve months. Thank you

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Speaker 1: very much for this year. Enjoy the break, Stephen, I'll.

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Speaker 2: Enjoy it and the seasons. Greetings Michael, to all the

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Speaker 2: Fear and Greed team and to everybody who listens in

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Speaker 2: every week.

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Speaker 1: That was economist Stephen Cook cool Us, better known as

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Speaker 1: the Kirk. It can find him at the kouk dot

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Speaker 1: com and follow him on excusing the handle of the kuk.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and this is Fear and Greed Q

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Speaker 1: and a