Speaker 1: The Sky Center. This is Paul Murray Live.
Speaker 2: Can I get evening again? Welcome to the last show
Speaker 2: before a nation defining election, a fork in the road
Speaker 2: where we will all find out which direction we are
Speaker 2: headed in Tonight stated a race deep data, hardcore politics.
Speaker 2: This is about trying to see where the trends are,
Speaker 2: where they're not, where the fault lines are in all
Speaker 2: of the different electorates. It's going to get very detailed.
Speaker 2: But I know you love it. I know you can
Speaker 2: handle it, and I know we're all looking forward to
Speaker 2: this thing getting behind us as fast as possible. Now,
Speaker 2: I've got to say, when it comes to elections, I
Speaker 2: do have a little bit of a saying that everyone
Speaker 2: around me gets a little bit bored of saying. And
Speaker 2: it's a version of a quote that you've heard many
Speaker 2: times before. But the message is pretty simple. Expect the worst,
Speaker 2: but hope for a surprise. That way, you are not
Speaker 2: going to be a blubbering mess if the exact opposite
Speaker 2: of what you want to happen happens. But there's always
Speaker 2: a moment well you can say, you say that was interesting,
Speaker 2: Thank goodness. This is the feeling that I had in
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen. It's a feeling I had in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 2: and it's a feeling I have going into twenty and
Speaker 2: twenty five. Eighteen million people will make their decision about
Speaker 2: which way we are going to go as a country.
Speaker 2: Every piece of data and all information would suggest that
Speaker 2: we are about to see the reelection of this government.
Speaker 2: The question is not whether they are re elected, but
Speaker 2: will they have their own majority as they currently do,
Speaker 2: or will they have to negotiate with somebody else to
Speaker 2: get the majority to be in a minority.
Speaker 1: As for Peter.
Speaker 2: Dunton, he says that the internal polling, the information that
Speaker 2: he is getting, the same information that was right in
Speaker 2: twenty and nineteen when everyone else was wrong, was telling
Speaker 2: him that there is a lot more fifty to fifty
Speaker 2: bounces of the ball, and yep, they can all go
Speaker 2: his way or they can all go the other way.
Speaker 2: But that's his belief about what's happening right now. We
Speaker 2: know that there's been a massive surge in the support
Speaker 2: for Paul Enhnsen and one all over the country. And
Speaker 2: that matters because she's been around for thirty years. She
Speaker 2: hasn't mucked about it at all. We all know how
Speaker 2: she stands. We all know how she feels, and she
Speaker 2: wants you if you vote one Nation to put the
Speaker 2: Liberal Party second. As I have said, if you are
Speaker 2: going to go a minor party, then you have to
Speaker 2: choose a government with what you do at number two.
Speaker 2: Also arm yourself with the information. So in the case
Speaker 2: of one Nation, it is vote dot one nation, dot org,
Speaker 2: dot au, or you can go searching for how to
Speaker 2: vote Labor, how to vote Liberal, how to vote Green,
Speaker 2: how to vote Okay. You can go to a website
Speaker 2: like vote dot one nation, dot org dot au. You
Speaker 2: can get your how to votes and it doesn't matter
Speaker 2: whether there's a volunteer there or not. It means you
Speaker 2: don't have to engage with the people who say vote
Speaker 2: for your local doctor, cart immigration, all the stuff that
Speaker 2: they say as you're walking in think of the children.
Speaker 2: You've made your decision, you've got your information, download how
Speaker 2: to vote before you go and vote tomorrow or of
Speaker 2: course on Saturday, where the majority of people will at
Speaker 2: this election. Meantime. Of course, in terms of the things
Speaker 2: that we've got to talk about here is again if
Speaker 2: those internal polls are correct, then again we're going to
Speaker 2: see this quite Australian's effect. We'll all see what happens.
Speaker 2: As for Albow, and if he wins, well, he's got
Speaker 2: one hell of a machine around him. In my view,
Speaker 2: it's going to be one that's built on lives. But
Speaker 2: if it is what the majority of people have gone for,
Speaker 2: as Richo says, the mob is always right. Tonight, State
Speaker 2: of the Race tonight, Kroger, Conroy Murray, no one holds
Speaker 2: back all of it hardcore politics Tonight on the show.
Speaker 2: I think we may all not feel great after Saturday,
Speaker 2: but you'll certainly feel good tonight as we start to
Speaker 2: get a bit of an indication, including even into the
Speaker 2: betting markets, about which seats they think are going to
Speaker 2: be changing at this election. Those blokes in a moment
Speaker 2: or two time, as we like to do at the
Speaker 2: start of each and every show, two days to go.
Speaker 2: We've basically been on an election footing since the start
Speaker 2: of the year. The super long campaign is almost over
Speaker 2: according to the in An Electoral Committee Commission. Sorry, five
Speaker 2: point four million people have already voted. Now I thought
Speaker 2: that we're on our way towards half of all people voting.
Speaker 2: There's eighteen million people on the register, so that'd be
Speaker 2: nine million. We are well short of that. Let's add
Speaker 2: another million once today's numbers come in. Because this is
Speaker 2: all a bit of a lagging number. I don't think
Speaker 2: we're going to get anywhere near the nine million, which
Speaker 2: means has this sort of two election campaigns. There's one
Speaker 2: that crests the two weeks before in order for early voting,
Speaker 2: and then there is the one that goes all the
Speaker 2: way up to election day. When it comes to the
Speaker 2: locations that have been voting early, the seat of Griffith,
Speaker 2: which is currently held by the Greens, has the most
Speaker 2: number of people turning up to one of their prepole locations. Bowman,
Speaker 2: Dawson and Fadden all LMP seats in Queensland where are
Speaker 2: are which again on a good night for Libbs is competitive,
Speaker 2: but whether the Poles are correct that things have gone
Speaker 2: back Labour's way in New South Wales means something's going
Speaker 2: on there that there's a certain amount of vote that's
Speaker 2: being banked there. Maybe a bit sick of how many
Speaker 2: door knocks they are getting in Flinders in Victoria, a
Speaker 2: Liberal Party seat in Macon in South Australia, a Labor
Speaker 2: Party seat Capricornia in Queensland as well as Herbert in Queensland,
Speaker 2: both with the LNP and Gorton. So it's rare fulle
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty, but a little bit more when it
Speaker 2: comes to the LNP, but certainly massive overrepresentation of Queensland.
Speaker 2: Who knows which way they are going to vote. Now,
Speaker 2: there's another little factor here that I need to tell
Speaker 2: you about, which is there are about three million postal votes. Now,
Speaker 2: these will not be automatically counted on election night. You
Speaker 2: are able to make sure that it is posted by
Speaker 2: but me election day and then yes, there's a couple
Speaker 2: of days for the mail to get there, but put simply,
Speaker 2: you basically have to have it in the mail by Friday.
Speaker 2: But there's three minion votes on top of all of
Speaker 2: those others. So maybe we can start to say about
Speaker 2: that nine million number. But the postal number is about three. Now,
Speaker 2: the pre pole votes, they all get counted on Saturday night,
Speaker 2: the postal votes some and then and there's that little
Speaker 2: bit of a lag. Remember, because we live in a
Speaker 2: bizarre system, there's not a lot of counting. In fact,
Speaker 2: I don't think there's any counting on the Sunday, but
Speaker 2: I'll double check for you before I'm done. So we
Speaker 2: have to wait a few days. So there will be
Speaker 2: places like previously been along at the previous election Herbert
Speaker 2: a couple of elections ago. Although Herbert is certainly strong
Speaker 2: LNP territory. Now with the great Philip Thompson, they're a
Speaker 2: great hope of the site and a great future, very
Speaker 2: much front row performer for the Lnp's a wonderful bloke.
Speaker 2: He's turned what was a couple of one hundred seat
Speaker 2: majority for the Labor Party into a big thumping lead
Speaker 2: for himself and there's no expectation that will be anything
Speaker 2: but that in and around Townsville. But let's have a
Speaker 2: look at where people have asked for the postal vote. Now,
Speaker 2: this of course could be for a whole collection of reasons,
Speaker 2: but put simply, this is a lot of people, say
Speaker 2: a nursing homes disability, meaning they can't go to the polls. Now,
Speaker 2: we went and had a look at this today that
Speaker 2: in a lot of these seats you can see that
Speaker 2: quite a few Labor, quite a few LNP, a lot
Speaker 2: more in Victoria, kind of a fifty to fifty game
Speaker 2: between Victoria and Queensland. There you can see that already
Speaker 2: half of the postal votes in Carwell, in Bonner, in Dunkley,
Speaker 2: in Aston have all been returned along with Deacon and Casey.
Speaker 2: There's still more than half of the postal vote to
Speaker 2: come in in Blair, in Goldstein, in Fadden and in McEwen. Again,
Speaker 2: I appreciate that the AAC updates these numbers each and
Speaker 2: every day, so again on election day we'll have a
Speaker 2: bit more of a picture about just how much is
Speaker 2: out there, apart from what has happened early. That, of course,
Speaker 2: all happens on the day when you go to the
Speaker 2: local school, democracy, sausage, all the rest of it. That's
Speaker 2: all on the day. Postals a little bit of a bleed.
Speaker 2: After the election will be able to start to do
Speaker 2: the numbers on all of that. There are some big
Speaker 2: and complicated computers that do all of that, which means
Speaker 2: Tom Connell is able to make the call and he
Speaker 2: is best in the business. He shoot away the competition,
Speaker 2: Let's be honest. He has absolutely stepped into his own
Speaker 2: his best in class. He in my view, is the
Speaker 2: single reason why you have to be watching Sky News
Speaker 2: on election night. Now we have a great panel and
Speaker 2: I'll be part of things and there'll be a great conversation.
Speaker 2: But Tom and the way that he reads the numbers,
Speaker 2: he is deeply just passionate about this stuff and he
Speaker 2: hates when I pile the pressure on. But he is
Speaker 2: that damn good all right, So he will have all
Speaker 2: of those calculations in his head. As what the leaders
Speaker 2: were doing today, well, unsurprisingly, they're all making their final pitches.
Speaker 2: No more big announcements, no more policies. It's all about
Speaker 2: pretending I'm the underdog. No, you're the underdog. I'm the underdog. No,
Speaker 2: I'm the underdog. So the bloke who a pole came
Speaker 2: out today, by the way, saying they would win eighty
Speaker 2: three seats, the same newgu poll that told us earlier
Speaker 2: in the year the Coalition would win seventy three seats.
Speaker 2: And I do love this Labor Party trick. Whien you
Speaker 2: turn up with TV cameras to a school, they all
Speaker 2: go nuts because it's the TV cameras, not the Prime minister.
Speaker 2: But it's a good old fashion trick and people always
Speaker 2: fall from it. Looks good a couple of days out
Speaker 2: from an election. But he's elbow pretending he's not confident
Speaker 2: about what everyone But maybe you think is going to
Speaker 2: be the winner.
Speaker 3: We take nothing for good it no prime minister has
Speaker 3: been re elected in this country having served a full
Speaker 3: term since two thousand and four. We have a mountain
Speaker 3: to climb. We have a mountain to climb, and it
Speaker 3: is difficult for Labor to be re elected.
Speaker 2: It's been difficult for every politician to get re elected.
Speaker 2: Now I found thin Albanez. He does win the election,
Speaker 2: either majority or minority, will be the first Prime minister
Speaker 2: to be successfully re elected since Howard in two thousand
Speaker 2: and four. Now, it has been very tumultuous ten years
Speaker 2: of course, rud Gillard, Rad Abbot, Turnbull, Morrison, where we've
Speaker 2: had this scenario where the expectation has been and we've
Speaker 2: sort of got a little bit too used to what
Speaker 2: is not the normal. The normal is multiple terms for
Speaker 2: one prime minister. Before Howard it was Hawk, and before Hawk,
Speaker 2: you know, this is the way Australia generally works. So
Speaker 2: it feels like if there is the return of this government,
Speaker 2: there is a sort of a return to normal in
Speaker 2: terms of the expectations. The X factor in and around
Speaker 2: this election was that for a very significant amount of
Speaker 2: time in this first term they've been behind in the polls,
Speaker 2: and unlike as I've explained to you before, unlike the
Speaker 2: Libs who got ninety seats in twenty thirteen and then
Speaker 2: they pissed that away with Malcolm Turnbul in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 2: and unlike Rudd again in and around ninety seats and
Speaker 2: they pissed that away with Julia Gillard in twenty ten.
Speaker 2: This guy doesn't have a massive backbench. So what will
Speaker 2: be interesting for us to talk about tonight is if
Speaker 2: the Labor Party takes a couple of steps forward. Okay,
Speaker 2: they might win some seats, but they're not going to
Speaker 2: end up going back to the sorts of margins that
Speaker 2: previous elections have been fought on. But again that's zero
Speaker 2: some game you either win or you lose. The rest
Speaker 2: of it is just analysis. As for Peter Dunnam where
Speaker 2: he was, he is absolutely confident he has the data
Speaker 2: that he has been given by the Liberal Party. Remember
Speaker 2: that he is informed by the Freshwater Organization who have
Speaker 2: been polling in the Australian Financial Review, and their last
Speaker 2: public polling, which was a couple of weeks ago, now
Speaker 2: it says they could win as many as ten seats.
Speaker 2: On top of that, there's whole bunch of fifty to
Speaker 2: fifty calls, which is why he is saying, if you
Speaker 2: are a Liberal supporter, do not give up. Do not
Speaker 2: vote for somebody else back in the bloke you'd want
Speaker 2: to be the prime minister. Don't make the assumption about
Speaker 2: what your neighbor is going to do.
Speaker 4: I feel confident, I feel good about where our candidates
Speaker 4: are and we've selected some amazing people. Our candidates have
Speaker 4: got a higher name idea than some lazy sitting labor members.
Speaker 4: They have done more work, they're more connected with their
Speaker 4: local electrics and that's why I think you'll see a
Speaker 4: lot of surprises seat by seat on Saturday night.
Speaker 2: Again, there is the national game, there is the demographics game.
Speaker 2: There is the insight from polling. But the only way
Speaker 2: to know is, of course, to ask every person in
Speaker 2: Australia to turn up on a day and make their choice,
Speaker 2: or two weeks before, or maybe a couple of days after.
Speaker 2: In terms of postals. Now, one thing that has been despicable,
Speaker 2: and it has been despicable this entire campaign, which has
Speaker 2: been the obvious attempts of the media to continue the
Speaker 2: arrangements that they have enjoyed for the past three years.
Speaker 2: I think one of the most corrosive forces in news reporting,
Speaker 2: or sports reporting, or business reporting or showbiz reporting is
Speaker 2: access and the need to be nice to the people
Speaker 2: who you are reporting on in order to continue to
Speaker 2: be able to report upon them. When it comes to
Speaker 2: things like federal elections national politicians, it should be not
Speaker 2: necessarily an aggressive or totally adversarial relationship, but there should
Speaker 2: always be a year but that exists in the media.
Speaker 2: But as we have shown you night after night after
Speaker 2: night for the entirety of this election campaign, and in
Speaker 2: and out of most of the time that we've been
Speaker 2: on air for the past fifteen years, we just show
Speaker 2: you the tapes that are freely available each and every night.
Speaker 2: And now let's look back at the soft questions the
Speaker 2: Prime Minister has received from a media who seems pretty
Speaker 2: comfortable with the way the country is being run.
Speaker 5: Now you've spoken to Premier Mens about getting the rabbit
Speaker 5: os Italians.
Speaker 1: All those issues are about the polls and the men
Speaker 1: him being on your side.
Speaker 6: Are you concerned though, about the possibility of a protest
Speaker 6: folk emerging that people think that maybe is going to
Speaker 6: win pretty comfortably.
Speaker 4: What does I say about your opponent, You think that
Speaker 4: he doesn't know the price of a.
Speaker 1: Passed the halfway point in the campaign, the polls look
Speaker 1: increasingly positive for labor. That's positive for the coalition. You
Speaker 1: must be getting confident now if you're going to the
Speaker 1: find two weeks.
Speaker 6: Should the Commonwealth spend anything on helping WA secure a
Speaker 6: NRL site?
Speaker 7: Do you think that more park O fortunate?
Speaker 8: Mad Joe Exotic from the hit series Tiger King is
Speaker 8: on a more serious note is he's serving a prison
Speaker 8: sentence for a murder and has been convicted of animal abuse.
Speaker 8: He's also just endorsed you on Instagram. How do you
Speaker 8: feel about that?
Speaker 2: How did you get time to watch adolescence on the campaign?
Speaker 9: Are you cocky or confident ahead of the labor.
Speaker 2: Law report today that your campaign share as welcome the
Speaker 2: baby girl for the world?
Speaker 1: How much maternity leaders who we're going to get and
Speaker 1: any message for new parents.
Speaker 2: Don't want to upset the apple cart because they believe. Firstly,
Speaker 2: I may be ideologically that this is the team that
Speaker 2: should be winning, but their guess is that this is
Speaker 2: the team that was going to win. You've seen how
Speaker 2: they have not pushed back on the how many times
Speaker 2: they've lied about how many things I know, but we
Speaker 2: had to have a rolling count of Peter Dutton and
Speaker 2: how many times he had gone to a petrol station.
Speaker 2: God forbid, he was in advocacy of what proved to
Speaker 2: be one of the most popular policies of this election.
Speaker 2: Showed you those numbers last night coming from the Red
Speaker 2: Bridge organization. Compare that to the daily dance between the
Speaker 2: media and Peter Dutton. Now again, it's not all meant
Speaker 2: to be cuddles all the time, But compare the tenor
Speaker 2: of the garbage that you've just heard being asked of
Speaker 2: the man who wants three more years after three pretty
Speaker 2: difficult years for the average Australian to the bloke who
Speaker 2: is saying he wants to put the country back on track.
Speaker 2: This seems just personal.
Speaker 10: What does it say about ability of you saying on
Speaker 10: as Liberal leader after the election if a candidate in
Speaker 10: a key marginal seat things is actually a selling point
Speaker 10: that you could shuffle off.
Speaker 2: She's called you a monster these what is your action?
Speaker 9: A lot of your campaign has been at petrol stations,
Speaker 9: You've been in trucks.
Speaker 11: You when you speak to about.
Speaker 9: Female dominated industries like education, you talk about the work agenda?
Speaker 4: What are you offering modern working women?
Speaker 10: You're not a dentist or an engineer, but I suspect
Speaker 10: that you'd take their advice on their subjective expertise. But
Speaker 10: last night, when you were asked about climate scientists, you
Speaker 10: said you accepted climate change was happening, but you couldn't
Speaker 10: bring yourself to say that you trusted climate scientists.
Speaker 6: Why should people vote for you when you give the
Speaker 6: air of a guy that's turned up not having turned
Speaker 6: his homeworking on time.
Speaker 12: Can you tell us how intense your fights with Barnaby are?
Speaker 2: How can you be taken seriously in the Pacific?
Speaker 1: If all of your policies hating? What's your message to
Speaker 1: South Australian voters, particularly in brief being stared watching their
Speaker 1: retirement savings be wiped away? Today? Who were worried about
Speaker 1: you becoming Donald trumple.
Speaker 9: You've been criticized for borrowing Trump and tactics.
Speaker 1: Do you believe borrowing Trumpian tactics? Do you believe accite.
Speaker 8: This for these from your candidates are damaging the little
Speaker 8: Now yesterday's debt you.
Speaker 1: Said you don't know President Donald Trump. How would you
Speaker 1: get that deal? If you don't even know the guys pre.
Speaker 2: Poll starts tomorrow about fifty percent of people expected to
Speaker 2: vote before May three.
Speaker 7: Can you pull it back from here?
Speaker 2: By the way, the Australian stock market is higher than
Speaker 2: it was at the start of this campaign. It is
Speaker 2: certainly higher than the dips that were there because of
Speaker 2: the tariffs. Basically, if you did nothing with your money
Speaker 2: in the past month, you are in front. But because
Speaker 2: for a couple of days or your retirement serving East
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. This has been the way that it has
Speaker 2: worked every single day, in part because those people know
Speaker 2: that if Dunton was able to get onto defense, well
Speaker 2: that means the government's going to have to you know, sorry,
Speaker 2: get onto offense. Then the government's going to have to
Speaker 2: be on defense. And we know that Albo when he's
Speaker 2: on defense in the past couple of years, has been terrible.
Speaker 2: It has been unbelieved Ball and I have no doubt
Speaker 2: you've been yelling at the television like I have been
Speaker 2: for the past few days. But it is the way
Speaker 2: that it is. And this is a generation of journalists
Speaker 2: who think this is the way that it is done.
Speaker 2: But there is a hall of shame of those who
Speaker 2: deserve to be called out specifically for some of their
Speaker 2: behavior and some of what I believe to be some
Speaker 2: pretty low hits that they took, including of course Tim
Speaker 2: Lester from Channel seven the day after we learned that
Speaker 2: Peter Dutton's father had had a heart attack. I interpreted
Speaker 2: this question as him basically blaming Peter Dutton for his
Speaker 2: father's heart attack.
Speaker 12: Campaigns are pressure events for candidates like yourself, but they're
Speaker 12: pressure events for families of candidates too. Do you worry
Speaker 12: your dad is not being helped and might even have
Speaker 12: been harmed by the fact that he's worried about you.
Speaker 2: Andrew Proben used to work at the ABC, but then
Speaker 2: there was great outrage when he was sacked by the ABC,
Speaker 2: so he had to have a job, which meant Channel
Speaker 2: nine came to the rescue and he proved that he
Speaker 2: was just as ABC, but this time the ABC with ads.
Speaker 2: This is the way that he again tried to bend
Speaker 2: a moment in the campaign where it was all about
Speaker 2: Trump and when you sent a nampaginper Price, a spectacular
Speaker 2: woman who deserves to have all of the attention and
Speaker 2: at some point into the future, all of the power
Speaker 2: that the Australian government can have because she wants to
Speaker 2: help people that most people in the media would step
Speaker 2: over if they saw them on a Friday night. This
Speaker 2: was the story from a few weeks ago.
Speaker 9: We can make Australia rate again.
Speaker 1: Is that an ode to Donald Trump?
Speaker 7: No?
Speaker 9: If I said that, I don't even realize I said that.
Speaker 11: But no, But similarities with the Trump campaign not ending there.
Speaker 9: Race, gender, sexuality, None of that is going to matter.
Speaker 9: What's going to matter is the right person.
Speaker 1: For the job.
Speaker 11: The senator vowing to vigorously pursue government efficiency and conservative bugbears.
Speaker 9: Are learning indoctrination as opposed to our education. We will
Speaker 9: conduct an audit into the spending in indigenous affairs, ridiculous
Speaker 9: grants like colonizing.
Speaker 11: Breastfeeding, outlining a wish list of radical change.
Speaker 2: But of course we have access to the tape of
Speaker 2: the press conference that he was at. This is what
Speaker 2: she actually said, and then you see the Frankenstein treatment
Speaker 2: that he did to present to the audience who didn't
Speaker 2: see it live. But trust him to tell them what
Speaker 2: actually happened.
Speaker 9: I'm so proud to be able to stand beside and
Speaker 9: to ensure that we can make Australia great again, that
Speaker 9: we can bring Australia back to its former glory, that
Speaker 9: we can get Australia back on track. We're hearing from
Speaker 9: students that they are learning in doctrination as opposed to education,
Speaker 9: that they're being forced to have to provide a welcome
Speaker 9: to country within their essays for crying out loud, and
Speaker 9: they if they don't don't provide an appropriate form of
Speaker 9: welcome to country or acknowledgment of country, that they will
Speaker 9: be marked down. We have announced policies around the fact
Speaker 9: that we will conduct them audit into the spending in
Speaker 9: Indigenous affairs and the Indigenous Affairs portfolio. We will establish
Speaker 9: a rule commission in the sexual abuse in Indigenous communities
Speaker 9: because we know that Indigenous children experience the highest rates
Speaker 9: of exposure to domestic and family violence.
Speaker 2: It took a few weeks into the campaign before the
Speaker 2: seven thirty Reports host Sarah Ferguson made her way into
Speaker 2: the media Hall of shame because this is the treatment
Speaker 2: that she gave to the Shadow Housing Minister. God forbid, interrupted, clueless,
Speaker 2: Clear O'Neil.
Speaker 6: We are building fifty five thousand social and affordable homes
Speaker 6: over five years twenty eight thousand, twenty eight thousand of
Speaker 6: those homes, Markels, what would.
Speaker 1: Your mother say hearing you interrupt her? Just I've been
Speaker 1: interrupted the entire Please it's okay.
Speaker 6: I'm unflappable, Sarah. I've done this my third run at
Speaker 6: this this week.
Speaker 2: But what did you say when Claire O'Neil was interrupting
Speaker 2: Michael Suka.
Speaker 5: Thousand short of what the cold? That's not right, Michael,
Speaker 5: labour and not going to be all one point two?
Speaker 5: That's the labor under Claire's watch. We're delivering fewer homes
Speaker 5: that we've had for well Over.
Speaker 1: Well, that's absolutely untrue.
Speaker 5: Again Michael, and they get to deliver a single home
Speaker 5: that's also True's well, we will fund so sure.
Speaker 1: For that's it. You're not getting an answer.
Speaker 5: You let an answer out of me through the Affordable
Speaker 5: Housing Bond aggregator. We supported thirteen thousand homes wrong, So.
Speaker 1: Did you build thirteen?
Speaker 7: Did you build thirteen higher than?
Speaker 1: And then today all the rooms are that Michael tried to.
Speaker 2: And then have the many questions asked in the four debates,
Speaker 2: and it was good to see four different debates. I
Speaker 2: don't think you got worse than this, mister.
Speaker 9: We don't see a lot of your softer side. Do
Speaker 9: you think that your your time as a police officer
Speaker 9: led you to have a black and white view of
Speaker 9: the world.
Speaker 2: I don't believe. And then, by the way, Andrew Proben,
Speaker 2: who did the report about the debate, turned around and
Speaker 2: used the answer of Peter Dunden to the question where
Speaker 2: he talks about his time as a police officer, because
Speaker 2: he was asked about his time as a police officer
Speaker 2: to then say and Peter Dunton says his time as
Speaker 2: a police officer would mean that he would be better
Speaker 2: dealing with Donald Trump. Now I get it. There's a
Speaker 2: show on Channel two that's done this for a long
Speaker 2: time that no doubt will turn around and have the
Speaker 2: greatest hits of things that I've had to say. But
Speaker 2: the difference between me and the people who go to
Speaker 2: those events is that they are the independent journalists. It's
Speaker 2: pretty obvious that they weren't in all of this, maybe
Speaker 2: because they ideologically prefer one over the other, but more
Speaker 2: likely it's because they didn't want to upset the apple cart.
Speaker 2: They didn't want to do anything that would hurt their
Speaker 2: proximity to power, because if they have the closeness to
Speaker 2: the power, then the power will reward them with a
Speaker 2: little pat on the head, a little bit of news
Speaker 2: here and there, an exclusive every now and then, the
Speaker 2: chance to interview the Prime minister. Thankfully, there have been
Speaker 2: heavy hitters that have pushed back. I highlight my colleagues
Speaker 2: here at skuy News, and Andrew Clenell with the interviews
Speaker 2: he's done today and his question at the National Press Club.
Speaker 2: My colleague Chris Yulman here ats sky News as well,
Speaker 2: and his unbelievable strength when it comes to calling bs
Speaker 2: when it comes to power and electricity and the bowen
Speaker 2: of everything. But is anyone surprised that when most people
Speaker 2: get their information from places other than this program, this station,
Speaker 2: our websites that we're sitting where we're sitting tonight. The
Speaker 2: polls basically sit somewhere between fifty two forty eight or
Speaker 2: fifty three forty seven. If it's fifty two forty eight,
Speaker 2: it's basically a repeat of the last election. Labor wins,
Speaker 2: but only just if it's fifty three forty seven. They
Speaker 2: will win clearly and increase the number of seats and
Speaker 2: all the people who will be there to be rewarded.
Speaker 2: I think maybe one or two of the media, people
Speaker 2: who are probably yelling at the TV right now, just
Speaker 2: like we have been yelling at them. Now, before we
Speaker 2: get into state of the race, I want to talk
Speaker 2: about the fault lines that exist in our community, the
Speaker 2: fault lines which will decide the election. But simply we
Speaker 2: know that people under fifty, generally speaking, vote to the left.
Speaker 2: People over the fifty will generally vote to the right. Now,
Speaker 2: sometimes this can become a little bit more or a
Speaker 2: little bit less, but at this election, I went through
Speaker 2: the actual electoral role and counted, well, the AAC countered
Speaker 2: for me, but the number of people in each and
Speaker 2: every seat. And at this election, there are two fault
Speaker 2: lines that matter. Are you under the age of fifth
Speaker 2: or over the age of fifty? Are you male or
Speaker 2: are you female? And yes, there are a couple of
Speaker 2: thousand people who describe themselves as intermediate, But for the
Speaker 2: point of the conversation, age and gender are going to
Speaker 2: be the big fault lines.
Speaker 1: Here.
Speaker 2: To give you an idea about maybe why we're sitting
Speaker 2: at fifty two forty eight or fifty three forty seven.
Speaker 2: There are four hundred and eight thousand more voters under
Speaker 2: the age of fifty across the country. Than over the
Speaker 2: age of fifty. That would mean there are theoretically more
Speaker 2: people voting to the left because they are under the
Speaker 2: age of fifty. We also know that in the polling
Speaker 2: that women are tending towards the left rather than the right,
Speaker 2: and nationally there there are four hundred and twenty seven
Speaker 2: seven hundred and twelve more women. Now, obviously you can
Speaker 2: be both female and under the age of fifty, but
Speaker 2: the point here is that there is a many hundred
Speaker 2: thousand vote advantage to what we are being told in
Speaker 2: the polls are sections that are going to vote to
Speaker 2: the left Labor, Green's Socialist Alliance deals. Why is this
Speaker 2: election competitive at all, then, Paul, Well, let me explain,
Speaker 2: because both major parties have got marginal seats. Now, obviously
Speaker 2: the older you vote, the more likely you are not
Speaker 2: to be voting labor. So in seven of the ten
Speaker 2: seats that are their most marginal seats, people are over
Speaker 2: the age of fifty. The saving grace, however, could be
Speaker 2: that there are in nine of the ten seats more
Speaker 2: female voters. In these labor marginal seats. In terms of
Speaker 2: the Liberal Party, they think they can hold on to
Speaker 2: seats because eight out of ten of those seats have
Speaker 2: people over the age of fifty that are the majority voters,
Speaker 2: but they may lose to tels or outright to labor
Speaker 2: because there are more female voters in every single one
Speaker 2: of those seats. In fact, in some of those seats
Speaker 2: there is a ten thousand vote difference between people under
Speaker 2: the age of fifty and over the age of fifty.
Speaker 2: When you come down to one percent seats, two percent seats,
Speaker 2: guess what that really matters? All right, stay to the race.
Speaker 2: Let's get to it right now, deep dive into data.
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter what you kind of think is going
Speaker 2: to happen. It is important to go and have a
Speaker 2: look at all of it. We will do it right now,
Speaker 2: all right, or we need to do Send me an
Speaker 2: email to poultsgudews dot com dot A you thanks for watching,
Speaker 2: Thanks for the journey. I'll be there on Saturday night,
Speaker 2: and you know what, I'll be here on Sunday night,
Speaker 2: and I'll be here in three years time, and I'll
Speaker 2: be here in six years time. You get the point.
Speaker 2: We're not going nowhere. Fight fight, fight baby all day,
Speaker 2: every day.
Speaker 7: More on a second.
Speaker 2: Lots of little traditions that we get used to and
Speaker 2: over fifteen years were built, many of them up. One
Speaker 2: of them is that the last time we are on
Speaker 2: television before an election, we have a conversation with two
Speaker 2: blokes I spend a lot of time with on the phone,
Speaker 2: a lot of time with personally, arguing and discussing about
Speaker 2: this and about that and what do you think of this?
Speaker 2: And have you seen that? They of course are legends
Speaker 2: of their party, none other than Stephen Conroy and Michael
Speaker 2: Crowd gentlemen, both are in Melbourne. I wish I was
Speaker 2: there with you now, but alast the man cave it
Speaker 2: does not take care of itself. Lads, how do we
Speaker 2: feel apart from results all the rest of it? Right?
Speaker 2: This is the time where rubber hits the road. What's
Speaker 2: it like when you are either in head office or
Speaker 2: sitting around a cabinet table a couple of days out,
Speaker 2: regardless of all the information. What's it like just before
Speaker 2: an election? Michael?
Speaker 7: Mate? It's chaos, to be honest. Everyone everyone's got an opinion.
Speaker 7: Everyone will tell you why that one was wrong and
Speaker 7: you should have done this, and we should have been
Speaker 7: doing that, and donors haven't sent their money in. Candidates
Speaker 7: complaining people are sick. On the other hand, if you're winning.
Speaker 7: If you're winning, it's very different. It's like, oh, mate,
Speaker 7: aren't we magnificent? Those advertisers adds were great candidates, magnificent,
Speaker 7: best candidates we ever had, policies, fantastic state directors, wonderful,
Speaker 7: The leader's a genius. So the answer is to your question,
Speaker 7: it depends whether you're winning or not, mate, And it's
Speaker 7: a very different response that Stephen.
Speaker 2: Of course, apart from anything else that being a candidate yourself,
Speaker 2: but being in the Senate it means you have responsibility
Speaker 2: for people downstairs. Is this the time when the person
Speaker 2: who's basically running in order to do how to vote?
Speaker 2: Forms in Liberal Party seats that have never turned in
Speaker 2: about four hundred years. I think I'm still a chance.
Speaker 2: I'm a chance. Somebody at the pub said they're voting
Speaker 2: for me for the first time.
Speaker 1: No candidate. Latis sets in very quickly, and I can't
Speaker 1: tell you the amount of times I've had the candidates
Speaker 1: in Higgins, which was traditionally and incredibly safe seat Peter
Speaker 1: Destale's a member. They'd find out and say, look, it's
Speaker 1: on the swing. Is on. I've been knocking on the doors.
Speaker 1: You can feel it from the conversations and you just go, yeah, no, no,
Speaker 1: if we will get more recent and you put the
Speaker 1: phone down and you just forget about it. That is
Speaker 1: that is an absolute normal in all parties, not just
Speaker 1: label in all parties, because to run, you've got to
Speaker 1: have a genuine sense of self belief. Otherwise you couldn't
Speaker 1: put yourself out there. And so that sense of self
Speaker 1: belief really takes over during a campaign. And you know,
Speaker 1: I've got on people for doing it. And now I
Speaker 1: was lucky enough to stand a few times, but it
Speaker 1: really there has some very funny phone calls.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Now, look in terms of your predictions and all of
Speaker 2: that game right where we're going to deal in data
Speaker 2: and all of that. But we'll get to in a second, right,
Speaker 2: but let's deal with medi Scare versus super Scare. All right.
Speaker 2: Both are very effective. One is very late in the game.
Speaker 2: One was very frontloaded and helped change the conversation in
Speaker 2: those early months. Which one is going to be most
Speaker 2: potent going into this absolute final run And now that
Speaker 2: we know that the majority of people will be voting
Speaker 2: on election day, yep, super Scare hasn't been running for
Speaker 2: weeks and weeks and weeks, but Jesus running hard and
Speaker 2: the next couple of days, Michael, but.
Speaker 7: It is running hard. But those with superbalances over three
Speaker 7: million are not that many. Those with a Medicare card
Speaker 7: are quite plentiful, so medicares are much more effective weapon.
Speaker 7: I'd say this about this election. I don't think I've
Speaker 7: ever said anything like it. My first election was nine
Speaker 7: to sixty nine when I handed out for John Gorton
Speaker 7: as a twelve year old. I've never said anything like it.
Speaker 7: I mean the dishonesty, the lies that Albani's in charmers
Speaker 7: have told, the appalling mistakes they've made on budget figures.
Speaker 7: They make things up, they repeat them, they keep repeating them.
Speaker 7: Phil Coury and others know right and say this is wrong.
Speaker 7: They just keep repeating them. The six hundred billion, it's
Speaker 7: a blatant lie. So I don't think Labour can be proud.
Speaker 7: It's a dirty If they win, it's a dirty victory.
Speaker 7: It's a very dirty victory. And when that happens, you
Speaker 7: will get clobbed at the next election. So one of
Speaker 7: the reasons Short lost in nineteen wasn't just because of
Speaker 7: the tax rises. He proposed, but because people felt badly
Speaker 7: that they'd been conned by him in sixteen.
Speaker 2: Good point.
Speaker 7: So Albanez, if he wins on Saturday, he's going to
Speaker 7: have a legacy of people saying, mate, you condus, right,
Speaker 7: you condus on medicare. It was never going to be abolished, cut,
Speaker 7: you know, slashed, burned, nuclear was never going to cost
Speaker 7: six hundred. You just go through the whole list of
Speaker 7: these things. So medicare is very effective. But you know,
Speaker 7: if you win an election by praying on the elderly,
Speaker 7: the infirmed and the sick, by basically scaring the living
Speaker 7: daylights out of them that their healthcare is going to
Speaker 7: be affected by Peter Dutton, you shouldn't very feel proud
Speaker 7: of yourself, mate, you really shouldn't. That's a race to
Speaker 7: the political bottom and he should be ashamed. Albanize.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, Stephen, in terms of the super scared side
Speaker 2: of things, we read an article yesterday suggesting that this
Speaker 2: could be the difference between majority minority. This could be
Speaker 2: a giant flip of an awful large amount of seats,
Speaker 2: because of course it's not just the people who have
Speaker 2: that three minion, but it's about the younger people who
Speaker 2: will end up tipping in superannuation for a longer working life,
Speaker 2: hoping to be able to warn enough money at some
Speaker 2: point in time that that three million is the number
Speaker 2: that they'll be able to play a plunk with down
Speaker 2: the track. What's either your defense of the MENI scare
Speaker 2: or what is your fear of the super scare?
Speaker 1: Well on the super scare. The thing that's totally distracted
Speaker 1: from the ability for avoiderbles to get it up has
Speaker 1: been that Donald Trump's behavior in the US has seen
Speaker 1: people super innuation from being smashed. People have opened up,
Speaker 1: had a look on their fifty thousand dollars worse off
Speaker 1: because of Donald Trump. So it's been hard to get
Speaker 1: your attention onto. As Michael says, there's not that many
Speaker 1: people now, but everyone who's got it he has been
Speaker 1: losing money immediately in front of their eyes. So I
Speaker 1: think that's really back in the He's going to run
Speaker 1: that did is cell?
Speaker 2: The all ordinaries is up on where it was a
Speaker 2: month ago.
Speaker 1: Up. No, But you know, people remember going down a
Speaker 1: lot more than they remember going on. So I think
Speaker 1: it's a small niche issue that's been drowned up by
Speaker 1: other impacts on the superannuation front on many care I
Speaker 1: think I think Michae always being unkind Albow came out
Speaker 1: from Christmas break and he was firing and all cylinders
Speaker 1: he hadn't had. He wasn't in a way that he
Speaker 1: hadn't been firing for probably eighteen months since the voice.
Speaker 1: He came out. But it wasn't just he came out
Speaker 1: firing and all cylinders. And I've got to give it
Speaker 1: enormous credit to someone most of you have never heard of,
Speaker 1: Paul Erickson, correct, the ALP national secretary and campaign director.
Speaker 1: So Albou came out. He came out with women's health policy.
Speaker 1: So he had about three different health policy initiatives that
Speaker 1: allowed and then to springboard into the Labour's the only
Speaker 1: party that will protect these. We will protect Medicare, we
Speaker 1: will protect these new initiatives, and so Labor have brand
Speaker 1: equity around Medicare. And if you wanted all these new initiatives,
Speaker 1: you had to keep protecting Medicare to take advantage of
Speaker 1: all these new initiatives. So yes, they've run hard. Peter
Speaker 1: Dutton unfortunately has a track record and one of the
Speaker 1: great problems you have when you move from government to
Speaker 1: opposition is you're still carrying the baggage from when you
Speaker 1: were in government. It doesn't matter which ministry you have,
Speaker 1: and it's particularly difficult if you were the minister where
Speaker 1: people can say, remember he was voted by the AMA
Speaker 1: the worst health minister they've ever had. He did these
Speaker 1: cuts and so you know he'll do it again. So
Speaker 1: often you need to have people leave to allow fresher
Speaker 1: people who weren't part of previous governments to be able
Speaker 1: to come through and say we're going to, you know,
Speaker 1: make changes that was someone else, it wasn't me.
Speaker 2: Well, and can I say can I say to that
Speaker 2: to that point as well? Right that? You know, if
Speaker 2: it's fifty three forty seven and we're talking about a
Speaker 2: re elected government with more seats than it went going in,
Speaker 2: then I think you've got to start looking towards the
Speaker 2: things like the News World's Labor Party, who only had
Speaker 2: one one member of his shadow cabinet, was even an
Speaker 2: MP in the one in the government that Kanely was
Speaker 2: leading and got flushed because Labour's got their line and
Speaker 2: length on all of this stuff, and we'll see what happens.
Speaker 2: That said, you know, it is rather selective about what
Speaker 2: the media will let you get away with. And I've
Speaker 2: got to say here, Stephen is a bloke who you
Speaker 2: know again tonight looks like he's playing with the better hand.
Speaker 2: Do you agree with some of my observations of the media.
Speaker 2: Do you agree with just some that there's just the
Speaker 2: idea that the bloke can stand there and say things
Speaker 2: we all know not to be true. But because we
Speaker 2: now live in this world and it's ever been us,
Speaker 2: but still it's more aggressive. Right If the question comes
Speaker 2: from Channel seven, Channel nine won't report it. If something
Speaker 2: happens on Sky News, then ABC pretends it never takes place.
Speaker 2: And that is now happening in the round in terms
Speaker 2: of these journalists in the previous generation of journalists, where
Speaker 2: we've still got people like Edrick Lenell and Phil Koury
Speaker 2: and Chris Human around when they saw that somebody was
Speaker 2: onto something, you'd step back and let them have a crack.
Speaker 2: But it seems like both leaders elbow started it doesn't
Speaker 2: finish finish off with them as well. This sort of
Speaker 2: one question a day thing and please don't upset Daddy
Speaker 2: seems to have been a rather successful tactic. But Father
Speaker 2: Piss Week for those of us watching on right.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Now, look, I've been surprised at the gallery are
Speaker 1: prepared to let whoever is up the front dictate in
Speaker 1: such a way that they're not able to push a point.
Speaker 1: So I think that's cute Osta Albow and Dutton for
Speaker 1: being able to I won't use the word train, but
Speaker 1: I mean, don't forget. This is not you some blow
Speaker 1: called Joebielki. Peterson used to talk about feeding the chucks.
Speaker 1: This is not a new phenomenon. But what I think
Speaker 1: when we talk about the media is that there has
Speaker 1: been a fundamental structural change. This is the first campaign
Speaker 1: where you can say that the Courier, Mail, the Daily Telegraph,
Speaker 1: the Herald's Son, the advertiser in Adelaide have not been
Speaker 1: able to control the debate. My daughter eighteen years old,
Speaker 1: she has never watched the six o'clock news. So it's
Speaker 1: not just those tabloids in Channel nine, Channel eleven, Channel nine,
Speaker 1: Channel seven, Channel ten. They are not the leads anymore.
Speaker 1: You know, if there was a big story, then everyone
Speaker 1: else was forced to. Notwithstanding the point you're making, Paul
Speaker 1: about and which is true that people won't report each
Speaker 1: other's stories, but they they don't dominate the discourse, particularly
Speaker 1: for people under the age of forty, because that has
Speaker 1: really changed structurally.
Speaker 2: Which brings me to those fault lines right about. You know,
Speaker 2: basically a way of just reading the world. And again,
Speaker 2: I know, not all people under fifty, not all people over,
Speaker 2: not all men, not all, but as a way of
Speaker 2: trying to divide the ag MENI people to try to
Speaker 2: work out which way things are going to go. That's
Speaker 2: the way that I'm choosing to do it. In terms
Speaker 2: of literally looking at the number of people that are
Speaker 2: enrolled in what seat, where is that an advantage or
Speaker 2: a disadvantage to you? And again, the picture of this election,
Speaker 2: more people under the age of fifty than over the
Speaker 2: age of fifty, more women than men. In terms of
Speaker 2: the marginals. If Labor's going to lose seats, it's going
Speaker 2: to be because of the seats that are currently marginal,
Speaker 2: seven out of ten of them have over fifty percent sorry,
Speaker 2: over fifty year old. If the Liberals are going to
Speaker 2: lose seats, it's going to be because in those seats,
Speaker 2: ten out of ten have more female voters. What do
Speaker 2: you think about this as a way of trying to
Speaker 2: carve up the pie. And again, demographics can be difficult,
Speaker 2: and that's why we end up with things like that
Speaker 2: you GOV poll where they go and do a survey
Speaker 2: and then they mix it in with all the people
Speaker 2: that are around and you get up a sou flew
Speaker 2: that says, two months ago the liberal parties winning seventy
Speaker 2: three seats and today the Labor Party is winning eighty four.
Speaker 2: But as a way of cutting it, have I cut
Speaker 2: it reasonably well Michael to understand what might be happening here?
Speaker 7: Yes, and no, it makes a lot of sense what
Speaker 7: you're saying. And the press are obsessed with describing elections
Speaker 7: by these individual demographics, and that's the answer to the election.
Speaker 7: The real answer is this, if you are winning the
Speaker 7: policy debate, you will win the election. Right unless your
Speaker 7: a government's expiring after the India term. You've been there
Speaker 7: twelve thirty four in years. You will win if you
Speaker 7: win the policy debate and you convince people as to
Speaker 7: the merit of your policy prescription.
Speaker 1: But as you know, you've got to start that debate early.
Speaker 7: And can I just make one of the points Stephen
Speaker 7: makes me laugh when you talk about Paul Ericks and
Speaker 7: the federal director lower party. We're going to give him
Speaker 7: great credit this, Paul Erickson Blake. I laugh because mate,
Speaker 7: in the Liberal Party, it's an article of faith. If
Speaker 7: you win the election, the leader's a genius and no
Speaker 7: one really mentions the Federal director. If you lose, it's all.
Speaker 1: The fault of the Federal director.
Speaker 7: So reading between the lines from James Campbell's wonderful article
Speaker 7: in the Herald Sun today and the Daily Telegraph today,
Speaker 7: reading between the lines, you get the impression that some
Speaker 7: people are unhappy with the Federal Director and maybe the
Speaker 7: Liberal Party hasn't run a good campaign. All that and
Speaker 7: you know it's no good and I think, but hang on,
Speaker 7: this guy, Andrew Hurst is a federal director. He was
Speaker 7: the Federal Director in nineteen and everyone told me he
Speaker 7: was a complete genius. The answer is he was a
Speaker 7: genius in nineteen, but in twenty five he is not. Listen,
Speaker 7: that's all nonsense, right, What Stephen's saying is nonsense. Right.
Speaker 7: You win and lose elections depending on the performance of
Speaker 7: the Parliamentary Party and the parliamentary leadership over the previous
Speaker 7: three years. A federal director, a state director, right, whoever
Speaker 7: they are, the ADVERTI of the agency, the bootstrappers, the candidates.
Speaker 7: They can only hang on the performance of the parliamentary party.
Speaker 7: If the parliamentary party doesn't perform, you can have the
Speaker 7: state director from or federal director from heaven, you won't
Speaker 7: win the election. Right in nineteen what happened, Bill Shorten
Speaker 7: played on our home turf because he had all these
Speaker 7: four hundred billion dollars of tax increases. So of course
Speaker 7: we were in a good campaign. We won the election.
Speaker 7: He played on our home turf. Everyone told me the
Speaker 7: federal director was a complete genius, and so be careful
Speaker 7: about these these these you know, you know Monday morning
Speaker 7: quarterbacks that say it was this, it was that.
Speaker 8: No.
Speaker 7: Look, if the parliamentary leadership performance, they don't perform, you
Speaker 7: don't win. That's the bottom line. Don't start blaming the start.
Speaker 2: But I listen to the people around him. You get
Speaker 2: the result of the past two years. Someone somewhere got
Speaker 2: the other side of his year and changed.
Speaker 1: That's exactly right, Yeah, all right, down trajectory before Christmas.
Speaker 2: Correct, ignore Murferu, pay attention to Paul Ericks and perhaps
Speaker 2: would be the advices of the future, or maybe they'll
Speaker 2: just get into the thing where we only have to
Speaker 2: do that with a couple of months to go all right,
Speaker 2: quick break back with more or start getting into the
Speaker 2: seat predictions. Next two things we can all agree on. One.
Speaker 2: Wasn't it awesome that in the Turnbull Times they had
Speaker 2: to publish a poll that said the least popular of
Speaker 2: the former prime ministers was Malcolm Turnbull. Second midnight tonight
Speaker 2: the TV had stopped. All right, now, a lot of
Speaker 2: people have been sending me he must go, and there's
Speaker 2: lots of more Labors and liberal eights to look. One
Speaker 2: of the advantages when you decide when the election is
Speaker 2: is you know when the first day will be and
Speaker 2: when the last day will be. There's only so much
Speaker 2: time and you can book into that time. So surprise, surprise,
Speaker 2: you're seeing what you're seeing. Its TV stations picking winners.
Speaker 2: A rare moment of defense for my business, as I
Speaker 2: occasionally ignore the hand that feeds. We are here with
Speaker 2: Steve Conry, with Michael Kroger. It's fun to watch anyway
Speaker 2: for people it seems to have worked over fifteen years.
Speaker 2: May be. So for the next look, let's get into
Speaker 2: some quick, some speed round stuff here. I want to
Speaker 2: talk about the Polar coaster because someone's going to be
Speaker 2: really wrong here. Now, Yes, they're starting to kind of
Speaker 2: get between fifty two forty eight or fifty three forty
Speaker 2: seven or margin de vera means we're all technically within
Speaker 2: six points. Okay. The people that are doing the internal
Speaker 2: polling for the Labor Party are the people behind the
Speaker 2: news pole. That doesn't mean Newspole is working for the
Speaker 2: Labor Party. And the people that are doing the internal
Speaker 2: polling the Liberal Party the ones doing the freshwater poling
Speaker 2: which is turning up in the Financial Review. Now, I
Speaker 2: have mentioned that they've kind of been shushed for a
Speaker 2: while at certain points in time. In fact, their last
Speaker 2: pole said that the Libs would win ten seats at
Speaker 2: this election. Well, this is the pole that has just
Speaker 2: been released tonight in the Financial Review, and each the
Speaker 2: most generous of the fifty fifty split to the coalition,
Speaker 2: suggesting that it's more fifty one and a bit to
Speaker 2: forty nine and a bit as opposed to sorry forty
Speaker 2: eight and a bit as opposed to the fifty two's
Speaker 2: and the fifty threes. Thirty seconds from each of you
Speaker 2: about the polar coaster.
Speaker 7: Your thoughts, Michael, Well, look, if the fifty two forty
Speaker 7: eight is correct, then alban Eesi is back, because that'll
Speaker 7: just show a minute swing against him, fifty one and
Speaker 7: a half forty eight and a half. There's a bit
Speaker 7: over half swing against him, which means the Coalition win
Speaker 7: a few seats. What I don't know is this, I
Speaker 7: don't know how much there's a shy dutt In Vader
Speaker 7: effect like there is with conservative parties around the world.
Speaker 7: I don't know how much people have been fooled by
Speaker 7: the campaign. I don't know whether in the last week
Speaker 7: people think I've just I've been conned by Albanizi. I
Speaker 7: don't want to be a mug And I don't know
Speaker 7: how much the press differences from the conservative right parties
Speaker 7: are going to how much that's going to increase. So
Speaker 7: normally we've got sixty four percent of one Nation, sixty
Speaker 7: two percent of UOP straight Trumpet, and seventy two percent
Speaker 7: of libertarian I think they could all be in the eighties.
Speaker 7: So there's another one or save percent. I don't know
Speaker 7: how much that's going to increase. So there are some
Speaker 7: factors which might mean the coalition vote is quite a
Speaker 7: bit better. And finally, in some of these marginal seats,
Speaker 7: I wonder whether our candidates have done very well, and
Speaker 7: whether the Labor vote is actually increasing in its own
Speaker 7: safe seats, because there have been big swings against lab
Speaker 7: particularly in Victoria and its own seats in the twenty
Speaker 7: two election. Maybe that's come back to labor and not
Speaker 7: so much in the marginals.
Speaker 2: All Right, sports bet has put out a list of,
Speaker 2: according to their betting markets, who they think is going
Speaker 2: to win seats. This is all parties, independence and the rest.
Speaker 2: And guess what, it's bugger all. It's basically exactly where
Speaker 2: we are. A couple this way, a couple that way.
Speaker 2: If we can bring that up guys at to see
Speaker 2: he was a lot of wins for the coalition, but
Speaker 2: these are people who were elected at the last election
Speaker 2: as coalition MPs. Those independent seats would just essentially go
Speaker 2: back to where we were. The only games for the
Speaker 2: coalition would be winning from the Greens in and around Brisbane,
Speaker 2: winning from Gilmour on the south coast of New South Wales,
Speaker 2: winning Aston, which of course was the seat lost at
Speaker 2: a by election, which means you're back to the number
Speaker 2: basically sort of plus two from the twenty twenty two election.
Speaker 2: In terms of labor, they would be able to gain
Speaker 2: a seat from the Greens, and in terms of Labor
Speaker 2: taking a seat anywhere else, I can't see it in
Speaker 2: that list. But again Labor Party suggests that some of
Speaker 2: this polling might put them in and around and even
Speaker 2: that positive polling in Freshwater puts them bang on seventy six.
Speaker 2: So lads, tell me dark horses, weird predictions. Give me
Speaker 2: your thirty seconds so everyone can replay the tape on Monday. Stephen, Look, I.
Speaker 1: Think it's a really interesting contest in foul. That was
Speaker 1: the seat that Christina Kanneely ran in and she lost
Speaker 1: to a high profile Independence. But there's a lot of
Speaker 1: talk around Labor maybe just picking that seat back up.
Speaker 1: I think that's one to watch on election night.
Speaker 7: All right, Michael, Well, the most fascinating seat in the
Speaker 7: country is McNamara, where Josh Burn's income at Labor MPs
Speaker 7: under threat from the Liberals and possibly the Greens. If
Speaker 7: he comes third, which he may well do, then his
Speaker 7: preferences may elect the Greens, which would horrify a lot
Speaker 7: of people. I think the one thing we can say
Speaker 7: is mate. When the three of us get together next week,
Speaker 7: we're going to say to each other that was totally unexpected.
Speaker 7: Whatever it was, there will be some shock results. There
Speaker 7: will be some shock results on Saturday night that no
Speaker 7: one saw coming and we will be absolutely bewilders to
Speaker 7: how various things happened. So what those are, we don't know,
Speaker 7: but there will be some absolute shock results which will
Speaker 7: surprise everybody.
Speaker 2: Yep, bloody oath all right. I think a little shy
Speaker 2: thing here is just pay attention to some of the
Speaker 2: Teal vote that might be a little higher than people
Speaker 2: think in Queensland only because published polls they're up seven
Speaker 2: points on where they were at the last election. One nation.
Speaker 2: I think they are going to go way above where
Speaker 2: they were at the last election, and preferences means again
Speaker 2: some thing's become more competitive. But if the government's re elected,
Speaker 2: guess what, that's what always happens. We're the first term government.
Speaker 2: Thank you guys, do appreciate it. We'll see you again
Speaker 2: and I'll see on Saturday night for the coverage up.
Speaker 2: Go Yankees.