WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 1 May 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:04.760 The Sky Center. This is Paul Murray Live. 0:00:05.920 --> 0:00:08.520 Can I get evening again? Welcome to the last show 0:00:08.600 --> 0:00:11.880 before a nation defining election, a fork in the road 0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:14.680 where we will all find out which direction we are 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:21.000 headed in Tonight stated a race deep data, hardcore politics. 0:00:21.520 --> 0:00:23.800 This is about trying to see where the trends are, 0:00:23.880 --> 0:00:26.840 where they're not, where the fault lines are in all 0:00:26.840 --> 0:00:29.080 of the different electorates. It's going to get very detailed. 0:00:29.120 --> 0:00:30.520 But I know you love it. I know you can 0:00:30.560 --> 0:00:32.959 handle it, and I know we're all looking forward to 0:00:33.240 --> 0:00:36.199 this thing getting behind us as fast as possible. Now, 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:39.080 I've got to say, when it comes to elections, I 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:41.400 do have a little bit of a saying that everyone 0:00:41.440 --> 0:00:43.120 around me gets a little bit bored of saying. And 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:45.200 it's a version of a quote that you've heard many 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:49.400 times before. But the message is pretty simple. Expect the worst, 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:52.440 but hope for a surprise. That way, you are not 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:56.000 going to be a blubbering mess if the exact opposite 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:59.680 of what you want to happen happens. But there's always 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:01.720 a moment well you can say, you say that was interesting, 0:01:01.800 --> 0:01:03.720 Thank goodness. This is the feeling that I had in 0:01:03.880 --> 0:01:07.880 twenty nineteen. It's a feeling I had in twenty twenty two, 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:11.039 and it's a feeling I have going into twenty and 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:15.399 twenty five. Eighteen million people will make their decision about 0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:18.920 which way we are going to go as a country. 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:22.520 Every piece of data and all information would suggest that 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:24.800 we are about to see the reelection of this government. 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:26.959 The question is not whether they are re elected, but 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:30.120 will they have their own majority as they currently do, 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:32.920 or will they have to negotiate with somebody else to 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:35.360 get the majority to be in a minority. 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:36.640 As for Peter. 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:39.399 Dunton, he says that the internal polling, the information that 0:01:39.480 --> 0:01:41.960 he is getting, the same information that was right in 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:45.920 twenty and nineteen when everyone else was wrong, was telling 0:01:45.959 --> 0:01:48.200 him that there is a lot more fifty to fifty 0:01:48.360 --> 0:01:50.720 bounces of the ball, and yep, they can all go 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:52.720 his way or they can all go the other way. 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:56.360 But that's his belief about what's happening right now. We 0:01:56.480 --> 0:01:58.840 know that there's been a massive surge in the support 0:01:58.840 --> 0:02:02.480 for Paul Enhnsen and one all over the country. And 0:02:02.560 --> 0:02:04.680 that matters because she's been around for thirty years. She 0:02:04.680 --> 0:02:06.280 hasn't mucked about it at all. We all know how 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:08.040 she stands. We all know how she feels, and she 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:10.239 wants you if you vote one Nation to put the 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:12.760 Liberal Party second. As I have said, if you are 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:14.240 going to go a minor party, then you have to 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:16.320 choose a government with what you do at number two. 0:02:16.760 --> 0:02:20.359 Also arm yourself with the information. So in the case 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:23.000 of one Nation, it is vote dot one nation, dot org, 0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:24.919 dot au, or you can go searching for how to 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:26.600 vote Labor, how to vote Liberal, how to vote Green, 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:29.679 how to vote Okay. You can go to a website 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:32.320 like vote dot one nation, dot org dot au. You 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:34.040 can get your how to votes and it doesn't matter 0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:36.240 whether there's a volunteer there or not. It means you 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:38.519 don't have to engage with the people who say vote 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:41.400 for your local doctor, cart immigration, all the stuff that 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:44.639 they say as you're walking in think of the children. 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:49.000 You've made your decision, you've got your information, download how 0:02:49.040 --> 0:02:52.720 to vote before you go and vote tomorrow or of 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:55.720 course on Saturday, where the majority of people will at 0:02:55.760 --> 0:03:02.280 this election. Meantime. Of course, in terms of the things 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:04.200 that we've got to talk about here is again if 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:06.079 those internal polls are correct, then again we're going to 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:08.680 see this quite Australian's effect. We'll all see what happens. 0:03:08.960 --> 0:03:11.800 As for Albow, and if he wins, well, he's got 0:03:11.960 --> 0:03:14.359 one hell of a machine around him. In my view, 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:16.079 it's going to be one that's built on lives. But 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:18.119 if it is what the majority of people have gone for, 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:23.000 as Richo says, the mob is always right. Tonight, State 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:28.000 of the Race tonight, Kroger, Conroy Murray, no one holds 0:03:28.040 --> 0:03:32.960 back all of it hardcore politics Tonight on the show. 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:36.000 I think we may all not feel great after Saturday, 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:38.240 but you'll certainly feel good tonight as we start to 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:40.000 get a bit of an indication, including even into the 0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:42.880 betting markets, about which seats they think are going to 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:44.760 be changing at this election. Those blokes in a moment 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:46.680 or two time, as we like to do at the 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:49.600 start of each and every show, two days to go. 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:53.000 We've basically been on an election footing since the start 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:56.320 of the year. The super long campaign is almost over 0:03:57.360 --> 0:04:03.240 according to the in An Electoral Committee Commission. Sorry, five 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:06.360 point four million people have already voted. Now I thought 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:08.760 that we're on our way towards half of all people voting. 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:11.240 There's eighteen million people on the register, so that'd be 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:14.400 nine million. We are well short of that. Let's add 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:17.960 another million once today's numbers come in. Because this is 0:04:17.960 --> 0:04:19.720 all a bit of a lagging number. I don't think 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:23.039 we're going to get anywhere near the nine million, which 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:27.120 means has this sort of two election campaigns. There's one 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:29.920 that crests the two weeks before in order for early voting, 0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:31.000 and then there is the one that goes all the 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:34.240 way up to election day. When it comes to the 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:36.920 locations that have been voting early, the seat of Griffith, 0:04:37.120 --> 0:04:39.560 which is currently held by the Greens, has the most 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:43.200 number of people turning up to one of their prepole locations. Bowman, 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:48.919 Dawson and Fadden all LMP seats in Queensland where are 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:51.640 are which again on a good night for Libbs is competitive, 0:04:51.680 --> 0:04:53.920 but whether the Poles are correct that things have gone 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:56.640 back Labour's way in New South Wales means something's going 0:04:56.640 --> 0:04:58.320 on there that there's a certain amount of vote that's 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:00.920 being banked there. Maybe a bit sick of how many 0:05:00.960 --> 0:05:03.760 door knocks they are getting in Flinders in Victoria, a 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:06.960 Liberal Party seat in Macon in South Australia, a Labor 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:10.760 Party seat Capricornia in Queensland as well as Herbert in Queensland, 0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:13.880 both with the LNP and Gorton. So it's rare fulle 0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:15.839 fifty to fifty, but a little bit more when it 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:19.320 comes to the LNP, but certainly massive overrepresentation of Queensland. 0:05:20.200 --> 0:05:23.239 Who knows which way they are going to vote. Now, 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:25.000 there's another little factor here that I need to tell 0:05:25.040 --> 0:05:29.200 you about, which is there are about three million postal votes. Now, 0:05:29.240 --> 0:05:34.520 these will not be automatically counted on election night. You 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:37.160 are able to make sure that it is posted by 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:40.400 but me election day and then yes, there's a couple 0:05:40.400 --> 0:05:42.440 of days for the mail to get there, but put simply, 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:45.719 you basically have to have it in the mail by Friday. 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:50.280 But there's three minion votes on top of all of 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:52.120 those others. So maybe we can start to say about 0:05:52.160 --> 0:05:55.320 that nine million number. But the postal number is about three. Now, 0:05:55.360 --> 0:05:58.560 the pre pole votes, they all get counted on Saturday night, 0:05:58.600 --> 0:06:00.560 the postal votes some and then and there's that little 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:03.240 bit of a lag. Remember, because we live in a 0:06:03.240 --> 0:06:05.600 bizarre system, there's not a lot of counting. In fact, 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:06.960 I don't think there's any counting on the Sunday, but 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:09.400 I'll double check for you before I'm done. So we 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:10.840 have to wait a few days. So there will be 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:14.520 places like previously been along at the previous election Herbert 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:17.120 a couple of elections ago. Although Herbert is certainly strong 0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:19.760 LNP territory. Now with the great Philip Thompson, they're a 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:23.240 great hope of the site and a great future, very 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:26.119 much front row performer for the Lnp's a wonderful bloke. 0:06:26.320 --> 0:06:28.640 He's turned what was a couple of one hundred seat 0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:31.760 majority for the Labor Party into a big thumping lead 0:06:31.800 --> 0:06:33.839 for himself and there's no expectation that will be anything 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:36.280 but that in and around Townsville. But let's have a 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:39.440 look at where people have asked for the postal vote. Now, 0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:41.480 this of course could be for a whole collection of reasons, 0:06:41.480 --> 0:06:43.479 but put simply, this is a lot of people, say 0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:48.920 a nursing homes disability, meaning they can't go to the polls. Now, 0:06:48.920 --> 0:06:50.479 we went and had a look at this today that 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:53.000 in a lot of these seats you can see that 0:06:53.160 --> 0:06:56.120 quite a few Labor, quite a few LNP, a lot 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:58.320 more in Victoria, kind of a fifty to fifty game 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:01.960 between Victoria and Queensland. There you can see that already 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:07.120 half of the postal votes in Carwell, in Bonner, in Dunkley, 0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:11.480 in Aston have all been returned along with Deacon and Casey. 0:07:12.440 --> 0:07:14.600 There's still more than half of the postal vote to 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:21.320 come in in Blair, in Goldstein, in Fadden and in McEwen. Again, 0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:24.320 I appreciate that the AAC updates these numbers each and 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:27.800 every day, so again on election day we'll have a 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:30.200 bit more of a picture about just how much is 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:33.920 out there, apart from what has happened early. That, of course, 0:07:33.960 --> 0:07:36.200 all happens on the day when you go to the 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:38.440 local school, democracy, sausage, all the rest of it. That's 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:41.640 all on the day. Postals a little bit of a bleed. 0:07:43.160 --> 0:07:45.240 After the election will be able to start to do 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:46.760 the numbers on all of that. There are some big 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:49.360 and complicated computers that do all of that, which means 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:51.040 Tom Connell is able to make the call and he 0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:53.880 is best in the business. He shoot away the competition, 0:07:53.960 --> 0:07:56.920 Let's be honest. He has absolutely stepped into his own 0:07:56.960 --> 0:07:59.400 his best in class. He in my view, is the 0:07:59.440 --> 0:08:01.680 single reason why you have to be watching Sky News 0:08:01.680 --> 0:08:03.840 on election night. Now we have a great panel and 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:05.920 I'll be part of things and there'll be a great conversation. 0:08:06.040 --> 0:08:07.880 But Tom and the way that he reads the numbers, 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:10.800 he is deeply just passionate about this stuff and he 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:12.440 hates when I pile the pressure on. But he is 0:08:12.440 --> 0:08:14.440 that damn good all right, So he will have all 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:18.640 of those calculations in his head. As what the leaders 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:21.880 were doing today, well, unsurprisingly, they're all making their final pitches. 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:24.440 No more big announcements, no more policies. It's all about 0:08:24.440 --> 0:08:28.200 pretending I'm the underdog. No, you're the underdog. I'm the underdog. No, 0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:30.280 I'm the underdog. So the bloke who a pole came 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:32.200 out today, by the way, saying they would win eighty 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:34.680 three seats, the same newgu poll that told us earlier 0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:37.000 in the year the Coalition would win seventy three seats. 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:39.080 And I do love this Labor Party trick. Whien you 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:40.720 turn up with TV cameras to a school, they all 0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:43.920 go nuts because it's the TV cameras, not the Prime minister. 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:46.360 But it's a good old fashion trick and people always 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:48.160 fall from it. Looks good a couple of days out 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:52.000 from an election. But he's elbow pretending he's not confident 0:08:52.200 --> 0:08:57.360 about what everyone But maybe you think is going to 0:08:57.360 --> 0:08:57.800 be the winner. 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:02.680 We take nothing for good it no prime minister has 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:06.120 been re elected in this country having served a full 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:12.000 term since two thousand and four. We have a mountain 0:09:12.040 --> 0:09:15.080 to climb. We have a mountain to climb, and it 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:17.600 is difficult for Labor to be re elected. 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:22.120 It's been difficult for every politician to get re elected. 0:09:22.679 --> 0:09:24.800 Now I found thin Albanez. He does win the election, 0:09:24.880 --> 0:09:27.160 either majority or minority, will be the first Prime minister 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:29.800 to be successfully re elected since Howard in two thousand 0:09:29.800 --> 0:09:33.640 and four. Now, it has been very tumultuous ten years 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:39.240 of course, rud Gillard, Rad Abbot, Turnbull, Morrison, where we've 0:09:39.280 --> 0:09:41.520 had this scenario where the expectation has been and we've 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:42.800 sort of got a little bit too used to what 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:46.040 is not the normal. The normal is multiple terms for 0:09:46.360 --> 0:09:50.760 one prime minister. Before Howard it was Hawk, and before Hawk, 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:53.680 you know, this is the way Australia generally works. So 0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:56.280 it feels like if there is the return of this government, 0:09:56.280 --> 0:09:58.240 there is a sort of a return to normal in 0:09:58.320 --> 0:10:01.640 terms of the expectations. The X factor in and around 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:03.959 this election was that for a very significant amount of 0:10:04.000 --> 0:10:06.720 time in this first term they've been behind in the polls, 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:10.400 and unlike as I've explained to you before, unlike the 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:13.520 Libs who got ninety seats in twenty thirteen and then 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:16.360 they pissed that away with Malcolm Turnbul in twenty sixteen, 0:10:16.679 --> 0:10:19.880 and unlike Rudd again in and around ninety seats and 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:22.440 they pissed that away with Julia Gillard in twenty ten. 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:26.440 This guy doesn't have a massive backbench. So what will 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:28.920 be interesting for us to talk about tonight is if 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:31.120 the Labor Party takes a couple of steps forward. Okay, 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:32.760 they might win some seats, but they're not going to 0:10:32.840 --> 0:10:36.120 end up going back to the sorts of margins that 0:10:36.360 --> 0:10:39.160 previous elections have been fought on. But again that's zero 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:42.160 some game you either win or you lose. The rest 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:45.800 of it is just analysis. As for Peter Dunnam where 0:10:45.840 --> 0:10:48.400 he was, he is absolutely confident he has the data 0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:50.360 that he has been given by the Liberal Party. Remember 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:52.959 that he is informed by the Freshwater Organization who have 0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:56.120 been polling in the Australian Financial Review, and their last 0:10:56.120 --> 0:10:57.959 public polling, which was a couple of weeks ago, now 0:10:57.960 --> 0:10:59.880 it says they could win as many as ten seats. 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:01.559 On top of that, there's whole bunch of fifty to 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:03.320 fifty calls, which is why he is saying, if you 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:05.400 are a Liberal supporter, do not give up. Do not 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:08.080 vote for somebody else back in the bloke you'd want 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:10.760 to be the prime minister. Don't make the assumption about 0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:12.600 what your neighbor is going to do. 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:18.479 I feel confident, I feel good about where our candidates 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:22.000 are and we've selected some amazing people. Our candidates have 0:11:22.040 --> 0:11:25.600 got a higher name idea than some lazy sitting labor members. 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:29.640 They have done more work, they're more connected with their 0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:32.000 local electrics and that's why I think you'll see a 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:35.000 lot of surprises seat by seat on Saturday night. 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:38.440 Again, there is the national game, there is the demographics game. 0:11:38.520 --> 0:11:40.640 There is the insight from polling. But the only way 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:42.720 to know is, of course, to ask every person in 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:45.520 Australia to turn up on a day and make their choice, 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:48.320 or two weeks before, or maybe a couple of days after. 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:52.000 In terms of postals. Now, one thing that has been despicable, 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:55.400 and it has been despicable this entire campaign, which has 0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:58.800 been the obvious attempts of the media to continue the 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:01.000 arrangements that they have enjoyed for the past three years. 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:05.520 I think one of the most corrosive forces in news reporting, 0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:09.640 or sports reporting, or business reporting or showbiz reporting is 0:12:10.280 --> 0:12:13.120 access and the need to be nice to the people 0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:16.120 who you are reporting on in order to continue to 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:18.840 be able to report upon them. When it comes to 0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:23.560 things like federal elections national politicians, it should be not 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:27.080 necessarily an aggressive or totally adversarial relationship, but there should 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:30.640 always be a year but that exists in the media. 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:33.200 But as we have shown you night after night after 0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:36.440 night for the entirety of this election campaign, and in 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:37.840 and out of most of the time that we've been 0:12:37.880 --> 0:12:40.520 on air for the past fifteen years, we just show 0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:43.560 you the tapes that are freely available each and every night. 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:46.840 And now let's look back at the soft questions the 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:50.040 Prime Minister has received from a media who seems pretty 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.200 comfortable with the way the country is being run. 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:56.640 Now you've spoken to Premier Mens about getting the rabbit 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:57.640 os Italians. 0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:00.160 All those issues are about the polls and the men 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:01.440 him being on your side. 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:04.240 Are you concerned though, about the possibility of a protest 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:06.600 folk emerging that people think that maybe is going to 0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:08.000 win pretty comfortably. 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:09.800 What does I say about your opponent, You think that 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:10.760 he doesn't know the price of a. 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:14.000 Passed the halfway point in the campaign, the polls look 0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:18.640 increasingly positive for labor. That's positive for the coalition. You 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:20.560 must be getting confident now if you're going to the 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:21.360 find two weeks. 0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:24.240 Should the Commonwealth spend anything on helping WA secure a 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:24.960 NRL site? 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:30.360 Do you think that more park O fortunate? 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:35.920 Mad Joe Exotic from the hit series Tiger King is 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:40.079 on a more serious note is he's serving a prison 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:44.320 sentence for a murder and has been convicted of animal abuse. 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:49.080 He's also just endorsed you on Instagram. How do you 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:49.800 feel about that? 0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:52.360 How did you get time to watch adolescence on the campaign? 0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:54.960 Are you cocky or confident ahead of the labor. 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:57.360 Law report today that your campaign share as welcome the 0:13:57.440 --> 0:13:58.960 baby girl for the world? 0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:01.640 How much maternity leaders who we're going to get and 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:05.559 any message for new parents. 0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:08.440 Don't want to upset the apple cart because they believe. Firstly, 0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:10.760 I may be ideologically that this is the team that 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:13.240 should be winning, but their guess is that this is 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:15.520 the team that was going to win. You've seen how 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:17.800 they have not pushed back on the how many times 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:21.040 they've lied about how many things I know, but we 0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:22.920 had to have a rolling count of Peter Dutton and 0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:24.920 how many times he had gone to a petrol station. 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:28.000 God forbid, he was in advocacy of what proved to 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:30.680 be one of the most popular policies of this election. 0:14:31.240 --> 0:14:33.280 Showed you those numbers last night coming from the Red 0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:40.080 Bridge organization. Compare that to the daily dance between the 0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:43.440 media and Peter Dutton. Now again, it's not all meant 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:45.760 to be cuddles all the time, But compare the tenor 0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:47.720 of the garbage that you've just heard being asked of 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:50.120 the man who wants three more years after three pretty 0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:53.160 difficult years for the average Australian to the bloke who 0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:55.720 is saying he wants to put the country back on track. 0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:57.359 This seems just personal. 0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.520 What does it say about ability of you saying on 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:04.080 as Liberal leader after the election if a candidate in 0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:06.560 a key marginal seat things is actually a selling point 0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:07.600 that you could shuffle off. 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:11.520 She's called you a monster these what is your action? 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:13.560 A lot of your campaign has been at petrol stations, 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:14.600 You've been in trucks. 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:16.840 You when you speak to about. 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.960 Female dominated industries like education, you talk about the work agenda? 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:22.600 What are you offering modern working women? 0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:24.880 You're not a dentist or an engineer, but I suspect 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:28.200 that you'd take their advice on their subjective expertise. But 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:31.080 last night, when you were asked about climate scientists, you 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:33.360 said you accepted climate change was happening, but you couldn't 0:15:33.360 --> 0:15:36.080 bring yourself to say that you trusted climate scientists. 0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:38.560 Why should people vote for you when you give the 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:41.240 air of a guy that's turned up not having turned 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:42.440 his homeworking on time. 0:15:42.600 --> 0:15:45.560 Can you tell us how intense your fights with Barnaby are? 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:47.720 How can you be taken seriously in the Pacific? 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:50.360 If all of your policies hating? What's your message to 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:54.800 South Australian voters, particularly in brief being stared watching their 0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:59.360 retirement savings be wiped away? Today? Who were worried about 0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:01.080 you becoming Donald trumple. 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:03.520 You've been criticized for borrowing Trump and tactics. 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:08.360 Do you believe borrowing Trumpian tactics? Do you believe accite. 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.240 This for these from your candidates are damaging the little 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:11.240 Now yesterday's debt you. 0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:13.400 Said you don't know President Donald Trump. How would you 0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:15.240 get that deal? If you don't even know the guys pre. 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:18.960 Poll starts tomorrow about fifty percent of people expected to 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:20.640 vote before May three. 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:22.840 Can you pull it back from here? 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:27.040 By the way, the Australian stock market is higher than 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:32.320 it was at the start of this campaign. It is 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:35.120 certainly higher than the dips that were there because of 0:16:35.160 --> 0:16:38.000 the tariffs. Basically, if you did nothing with your money 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:40.840 in the past month, you are in front. But because 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:42.440 for a couple of days or your retirement serving East 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:44.240 Donald Trump. This has been the way that it has 0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:48.280 worked every single day, in part because those people know 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:50.760 that if Dunton was able to get onto defense, well 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:52.760 that means the government's going to have to you know, sorry, 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:54.520 get onto offense. Then the government's going to have to 0:16:54.560 --> 0:16:56.400 be on defense. And we know that Albo when he's 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:58.280 on defense in the past couple of years, has been terrible. 0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:03.440 It has been unbelieved Ball and I have no doubt 0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:05.920 you've been yelling at the television like I have been 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:08.360 for the past few days. But it is the way 0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:10.240 that it is. And this is a generation of journalists 0:17:10.280 --> 0:17:11.879 who think this is the way that it is done. 0:17:12.800 --> 0:17:15.000 But there is a hall of shame of those who 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:16.960 deserve to be called out specifically for some of their 0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:19.199 behavior and some of what I believe to be some 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:23.160 pretty low hits that they took, including of course Tim 0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:26.560 Lester from Channel seven the day after we learned that 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:29.160 Peter Dutton's father had had a heart attack. I interpreted 0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:32.840 this question as him basically blaming Peter Dutton for his 0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:34.040 father's heart attack. 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:39.440 Campaigns are pressure events for candidates like yourself, but they're 0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:43.679 pressure events for families of candidates too. Do you worry 0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:47.879 your dad is not being helped and might even have 0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:50.440 been harmed by the fact that he's worried about you. 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:54.840 Andrew Proben used to work at the ABC, but then 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:57.160 there was great outrage when he was sacked by the ABC, 0:17:57.400 --> 0:17:59.680 so he had to have a job, which meant Channel 0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:02.479 nine came to the rescue and he proved that he 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:06.360 was just as ABC, but this time the ABC with ads. 0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:09.600 This is the way that he again tried to bend 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:12.680 a moment in the campaign where it was all about 0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:17.440 Trump and when you sent a nampaginper Price, a spectacular 0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:22.080 woman who deserves to have all of the attention and 0:18:22.240 --> 0:18:24.280 at some point into the future, all of the power 0:18:24.280 --> 0:18:26.240 that the Australian government can have because she wants to 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:29.000 help people that most people in the media would step 0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:32.159 over if they saw them on a Friday night. This 0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:34.480 was the story from a few weeks ago. 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:37.720 We can make Australia rate again. 0:18:37.760 --> 0:18:39.280 Is that an ode to Donald Trump? 0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:39.520 No? 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:41.639 If I said that, I don't even realize I said that. 0:18:41.680 --> 0:18:46.320 But no, But similarities with the Trump campaign not ending there. 0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:50.240 Race, gender, sexuality, None of that is going to matter. 0:18:50.320 --> 0:18:53.080 What's going to matter is the right person. 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:53.600 For the job. 0:18:53.920 --> 0:19:00.320 The senator vowing to vigorously pursue government efficiency and conservative bugbears. 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:03.600 Are learning indoctrination as opposed to our education. We will 0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:06.960 conduct an audit into the spending in indigenous affairs, ridiculous 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:09.200 grants like colonizing. 0:19:08.640 --> 0:19:12.480 Breastfeeding, outlining a wish list of radical change. 0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:16.760 But of course we have access to the tape of 0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:19.960 the press conference that he was at. This is what 0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:24.480 she actually said, and then you see the Frankenstein treatment 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:27.320 that he did to present to the audience who didn't 0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:29.959 see it live. But trust him to tell them what 0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:31.280 actually happened. 0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:35.479 I'm so proud to be able to stand beside and 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:39.480 to ensure that we can make Australia great again, that 0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:42.760 we can bring Australia back to its former glory, that 0:19:42.800 --> 0:19:47.000 we can get Australia back on track. We're hearing from 0:19:47.040 --> 0:19:50.800 students that they are learning in doctrination as opposed to education, 0:19:51.040 --> 0:19:54.000 that they're being forced to have to provide a welcome 0:19:54.040 --> 0:19:59.119 to country within their essays for crying out loud, and 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:02.159 they if they don't don't provide an appropriate form of 0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:05.440 welcome to country or acknowledgment of country, that they will 0:20:05.480 --> 0:20:08.320 be marked down. We have announced policies around the fact 0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:10.640 that we will conduct them audit into the spending in 0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:15.119 Indigenous affairs and the Indigenous Affairs portfolio. We will establish 0:20:15.320 --> 0:20:18.679 a rule commission in the sexual abuse in Indigenous communities 0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:22.400 because we know that Indigenous children experience the highest rates 0:20:22.600 --> 0:20:24.800 of exposure to domestic and family violence. 0:20:25.560 --> 0:20:28.000 It took a few weeks into the campaign before the 0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:31.440 seven thirty Reports host Sarah Ferguson made her way into 0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:34.679 the media Hall of shame because this is the treatment 0:20:34.720 --> 0:20:39.240 that she gave to the Shadow Housing Minister. God forbid, interrupted, clueless, 0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:40.080 Clear O'Neil. 0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:45.040 We are building fifty five thousand social and affordable homes 0:20:45.080 --> 0:20:49.000 over five years twenty eight thousand, twenty eight thousand of 0:20:49.000 --> 0:20:50.760 those homes, Markels, what would. 0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:53.359 Your mother say hearing you interrupt her? Just I've been 0:20:53.359 --> 0:20:56.159 interrupted the entire Please it's okay. 0:20:56.600 --> 0:20:59.439 I'm unflappable, Sarah. I've done this my third run at 0:20:59.480 --> 0:21:00.000 this this week. 0:21:00.720 --> 0:21:02.880 But what did you say when Claire O'Neil was interrupting 0:21:02.920 --> 0:21:04.000 Michael Suka. 0:21:05.280 --> 0:21:08.159 Thousand short of what the cold? That's not right, Michael, 0:21:08.400 --> 0:21:09.760 labour and not going to be all one point two? 0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:14.080 That's the labor under Claire's watch. We're delivering fewer homes 0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:15.840 that we've had for well Over. 0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:17.399 Well, that's absolutely untrue. 0:21:17.480 --> 0:21:20.000 Again Michael, and they get to deliver a single home 0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:24.000 that's also True's well, we will fund so sure. 0:21:24.119 --> 0:21:26.359 For that's it. You're not getting an answer. 0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:28.400 You let an answer out of me through the Affordable 0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:31.920 Housing Bond aggregator. We supported thirteen thousand homes wrong, So. 0:21:31.960 --> 0:21:32.920 Did you build thirteen? 0:21:33.680 --> 0:21:35.520 Did you build thirteen higher than? 0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:38.240 And then today all the rooms are that Michael tried to. 0:21:41.080 --> 0:21:43.439 And then have the many questions asked in the four debates, 0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:45.480 and it was good to see four different debates. I 0:21:45.560 --> 0:21:48.960 don't think you got worse than this, mister. 0:21:49.280 --> 0:21:51.520 We don't see a lot of your softer side. Do 0:21:51.600 --> 0:21:54.520 you think that your your time as a police officer 0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:57.320 led you to have a black and white view of 0:21:57.359 --> 0:21:57.760 the world. 0:21:59.160 --> 0:22:02.040 I don't believe. And then, by the way, Andrew Proben, 0:22:02.040 --> 0:22:04.600 who did the report about the debate, turned around and 0:22:04.800 --> 0:22:09.040 used the answer of Peter Dunden to the question where 0:22:09.119 --> 0:22:11.600 he talks about his time as a police officer, because 0:22:11.600 --> 0:22:13.520 he was asked about his time as a police officer 0:22:13.760 --> 0:22:16.359 to then say and Peter Dunton says his time as 0:22:16.400 --> 0:22:17.880 a police officer would mean that he would be better 0:22:17.880 --> 0:22:25.199 dealing with Donald Trump. Now I get it. There's a 0:22:25.200 --> 0:22:27.800 show on Channel two that's done this for a long 0:22:27.840 --> 0:22:30.119 time that no doubt will turn around and have the 0:22:30.240 --> 0:22:33.960 greatest hits of things that I've had to say. But 0:22:34.040 --> 0:22:37.040 the difference between me and the people who go to 0:22:37.080 --> 0:22:42.120 those events is that they are the independent journalists. It's 0:22:42.119 --> 0:22:45.800 pretty obvious that they weren't in all of this, maybe 0:22:45.840 --> 0:22:48.520 because they ideologically prefer one over the other, but more 0:22:48.640 --> 0:22:51.159 likely it's because they didn't want to upset the apple cart. 0:22:51.400 --> 0:22:53.600 They didn't want to do anything that would hurt their 0:22:53.640 --> 0:22:56.800 proximity to power, because if they have the closeness to 0:22:56.840 --> 0:22:59.080 the power, then the power will reward them with a 0:22:59.119 --> 0:23:01.399 little pat on the head, a little bit of news 0:23:01.400 --> 0:23:04.840 here and there, an exclusive every now and then, the 0:23:04.960 --> 0:23:09.320 chance to interview the Prime minister. Thankfully, there have been 0:23:09.320 --> 0:23:13.200 heavy hitters that have pushed back. I highlight my colleagues 0:23:13.240 --> 0:23:15.919 here at skuy News, and Andrew Clenell with the interviews 0:23:15.920 --> 0:23:19.879 he's done today and his question at the National Press Club. 0:23:20.880 --> 0:23:24.760 My colleague Chris Yulman here ats sky News as well, 0:23:24.800 --> 0:23:29.240 and his unbelievable strength when it comes to calling bs 0:23:29.280 --> 0:23:33.159 when it comes to power and electricity and the bowen 0:23:33.240 --> 0:23:37.240 of everything. But is anyone surprised that when most people 0:23:37.280 --> 0:23:40.760 get their information from places other than this program, this station, 0:23:41.520 --> 0:23:46.720 our websites that we're sitting where we're sitting tonight. The 0:23:46.760 --> 0:23:49.760 polls basically sit somewhere between fifty two forty eight or 0:23:49.800 --> 0:23:53.080 fifty three forty seven. If it's fifty two forty eight, 0:23:53.119 --> 0:23:56.120 it's basically a repeat of the last election. Labor wins, 0:23:56.359 --> 0:23:59.080 but only just if it's fifty three forty seven. They 0:23:59.119 --> 0:24:03.920 will win clearly and increase the number of seats and 0:24:03.960 --> 0:24:06.800 all the people who will be there to be rewarded. 0:24:07.840 --> 0:24:09.879 I think maybe one or two of the media, people 0:24:10.080 --> 0:24:13.919 who are probably yelling at the TV right now, just 0:24:13.960 --> 0:24:19.240 like we have been yelling at them. Now, before we 0:24:19.240 --> 0:24:21.720 get into state of the race, I want to talk 0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:26.600 about the fault lines that exist in our community, the 0:24:26.640 --> 0:24:30.680 fault lines which will decide the election. But simply we 0:24:30.760 --> 0:24:35.400 know that people under fifty, generally speaking, vote to the left. 0:24:35.440 --> 0:24:39.600 People over the fifty will generally vote to the right. Now, 0:24:39.640 --> 0:24:42.439 sometimes this can become a little bit more or a 0:24:42.440 --> 0:24:45.880 little bit less, but at this election, I went through 0:24:45.880 --> 0:24:49.240 the actual electoral role and counted, well, the AAC countered 0:24:49.280 --> 0:24:51.879 for me, but the number of people in each and 0:24:52.000 --> 0:24:56.760 every seat. And at this election, there are two fault 0:24:56.800 --> 0:24:59.960 lines that matter. Are you under the age of fifth 0:25:00.280 --> 0:25:02.040 or over the age of fifty? Are you male or 0:25:02.119 --> 0:25:04.240 are you female? And yes, there are a couple of 0:25:04.240 --> 0:25:06.639 thousand people who describe themselves as intermediate, But for the 0:25:06.680 --> 0:25:10.800 point of the conversation, age and gender are going to 0:25:10.840 --> 0:25:11.840 be the big fault lines. 0:25:11.880 --> 0:25:12.080 Here. 0:25:12.880 --> 0:25:14.680 To give you an idea about maybe why we're sitting 0:25:14.720 --> 0:25:17.119 at fifty two forty eight or fifty three forty seven. 0:25:17.240 --> 0:25:20.760 There are four hundred and eight thousand more voters under 0:25:20.760 --> 0:25:23.120 the age of fifty across the country. Than over the 0:25:23.160 --> 0:25:26.560 age of fifty. That would mean there are theoretically more 0:25:26.560 --> 0:25:29.159 people voting to the left because they are under the 0:25:29.200 --> 0:25:32.840 age of fifty. We also know that in the polling 0:25:33.600 --> 0:25:36.760 that women are tending towards the left rather than the right, 0:25:36.960 --> 0:25:39.120 and nationally there there are four hundred and twenty seven 0:25:39.520 --> 0:25:43.560 seven hundred and twelve more women. Now, obviously you can 0:25:43.600 --> 0:25:47.639 be both female and under the age of fifty, but 0:25:47.720 --> 0:25:49.679 the point here is that there is a many hundred 0:25:49.680 --> 0:25:52.879 thousand vote advantage to what we are being told in 0:25:52.920 --> 0:25:55.800 the polls are sections that are going to vote to 0:25:55.840 --> 0:26:01.000 the left Labor, Green's Socialist Alliance deals. Why is this 0:26:01.080 --> 0:26:03.640 election competitive at all, then, Paul, Well, let me explain, 0:26:04.200 --> 0:26:10.360 because both major parties have got marginal seats. Now, obviously 0:26:10.400 --> 0:26:12.320 the older you vote, the more likely you are not 0:26:12.400 --> 0:26:14.560 to be voting labor. So in seven of the ten 0:26:14.640 --> 0:26:19.480 seats that are their most marginal seats, people are over 0:26:19.640 --> 0:26:25.200 the age of fifty. The saving grace, however, could be 0:26:25.640 --> 0:26:28.160 that there are in nine of the ten seats more 0:26:28.320 --> 0:26:34.240 female voters. In these labor marginal seats. In terms of 0:26:34.320 --> 0:26:37.800 the Liberal Party, they think they can hold on to 0:26:37.920 --> 0:26:42.199 seats because eight out of ten of those seats have 0:26:42.280 --> 0:26:44.879 people over the age of fifty that are the majority voters, 0:26:45.000 --> 0:26:48.879 but they may lose to tels or outright to labor 0:26:48.920 --> 0:26:52.440 because there are more female voters in every single one 0:26:52.480 --> 0:26:54.320 of those seats. In fact, in some of those seats 0:26:54.359 --> 0:26:57.480 there is a ten thousand vote difference between people under 0:26:57.480 --> 0:27:00.000 the age of fifty and over the age of fifty. 0:27:00.000 --> 0:27:03.040 When you come down to one percent seats, two percent seats, 0:27:03.040 --> 0:27:08.080 guess what that really matters? All right, stay to the race. 0:27:08.160 --> 0:27:11.880 Let's get to it right now, deep dive into data. 0:27:12.040 --> 0:27:13.760 It doesn't matter what you kind of think is going 0:27:13.840 --> 0:27:15.879 to happen. It is important to go and have a 0:27:15.880 --> 0:27:17.480 look at all of it. We will do it right now, 0:27:17.480 --> 0:27:19.000 all right, or we need to do Send me an 0:27:19.000 --> 0:27:21.399 email to poultsgudews dot com dot A you thanks for watching, 0:27:21.440 --> 0:27:23.600 Thanks for the journey. I'll be there on Saturday night, 0:27:23.640 --> 0:27:25.440 and you know what, I'll be here on Sunday night, 0:27:25.560 --> 0:27:27.240 and I'll be here in three years time, and I'll 0:27:27.280 --> 0:27:28.880 be here in six years time. You get the point. 0:27:29.119 --> 0:27:32.120 We're not going nowhere. Fight fight, fight baby all day, 0:27:32.160 --> 0:27:32.680 every day. 0:27:33.200 --> 0:27:34.000 More on a second. 0:27:38.320 --> 0:27:40.119 Lots of little traditions that we get used to and 0:27:40.160 --> 0:27:42.840 over fifteen years were built, many of them up. One 0:27:42.880 --> 0:27:44.480 of them is that the last time we are on 0:27:44.520 --> 0:27:47.000 television before an election, we have a conversation with two 0:27:47.000 --> 0:27:49.520 blokes I spend a lot of time with on the phone, 0:27:49.600 --> 0:27:52.920 a lot of time with personally, arguing and discussing about 0:27:52.960 --> 0:27:54.280 this and about that and what do you think of this? 0:27:54.320 --> 0:27:56.960 And have you seen that? They of course are legends 0:27:56.960 --> 0:27:59.760 of their party, none other than Stephen Conroy and Michael 0:27:59.800 --> 0:28:01.639 Crowd gentlemen, both are in Melbourne. I wish I was 0:28:01.640 --> 0:28:03.439 there with you now, but alast the man cave it 0:28:03.480 --> 0:28:06.080 does not take care of itself. Lads, how do we 0:28:06.119 --> 0:28:08.800 feel apart from results all the rest of it? Right? 0:28:09.880 --> 0:28:11.840 This is the time where rubber hits the road. What's 0:28:11.840 --> 0:28:14.240 it like when you are either in head office or 0:28:14.280 --> 0:28:16.400 sitting around a cabinet table a couple of days out, 0:28:16.440 --> 0:28:19.560 regardless of all the information. What's it like just before 0:28:19.600 --> 0:28:20.560 an election? Michael? 0:28:25.640 --> 0:28:31.240 Mate? It's chaos, to be honest. Everyone everyone's got an opinion. 0:28:32.480 --> 0:28:34.960 Everyone will tell you why that one was wrong and 0:28:35.000 --> 0:28:36.479 you should have done this, and we should have been 0:28:36.480 --> 0:28:40.360 doing that, and donors haven't sent their money in. Candidates 0:28:40.360 --> 0:28:44.400 complaining people are sick. On the other hand, if you're winning. 0:28:44.560 --> 0:28:46.720 If you're winning, it's very different. It's like, oh, mate, 0:28:46.720 --> 0:28:52.240 aren't we magnificent? Those advertisers adds were great candidates, magnificent, 0:28:52.280 --> 0:28:56.000 best candidates we ever had, policies, fantastic state directors, wonderful, 0:28:56.040 --> 0:29:00.000 The leader's a genius. So the answer is to your question, 0:29:00.280 --> 0:29:04.520 it depends whether you're winning or not, mate, And it's 0:29:04.560 --> 0:29:08.040 a very different response that Stephen. 0:29:08.440 --> 0:29:11.120 Of course, apart from anything else that being a candidate yourself, 0:29:11.120 --> 0:29:13.000 but being in the Senate it means you have responsibility 0:29:13.320 --> 0:29:15.920 for people downstairs. Is this the time when the person 0:29:16.200 --> 0:29:19.240 who's basically running in order to do how to vote? 0:29:19.320 --> 0:29:22.400 Forms in Liberal Party seats that have never turned in 0:29:22.480 --> 0:29:25.120 about four hundred years. I think I'm still a chance. 0:29:25.240 --> 0:29:27.520 I'm a chance. Somebody at the pub said they're voting 0:29:27.560 --> 0:29:28.720 for me for the first time. 0:29:30.600 --> 0:29:36.280 No candidate. Latis sets in very quickly, and I can't 0:29:36.320 --> 0:29:38.920 tell you the amount of times I've had the candidates 0:29:39.200 --> 0:29:43.520 in Higgins, which was traditionally and incredibly safe seat Peter 0:29:43.640 --> 0:29:46.640 Destale's a member. They'd find out and say, look, it's 0:29:46.680 --> 0:29:51.080 on the swing. Is on. I've been knocking on the doors. 0:29:51.920 --> 0:29:56.480 You can feel it from the conversations and you just go, yeah, no, no, 0:29:56.600 --> 0:29:59.080 if we will get more recent and you put the 0:29:59.080 --> 0:30:01.840 phone down and you just forget about it. That is 0:30:01.920 --> 0:30:05.240 that is an absolute normal in all parties, not just 0:30:05.320 --> 0:30:07.920 label in all parties, because to run, you've got to 0:30:07.960 --> 0:30:11.560 have a genuine sense of self belief. Otherwise you couldn't 0:30:11.560 --> 0:30:14.440 put yourself out there. And so that sense of self 0:30:14.480 --> 0:30:17.920 belief really takes over during a campaign. And you know, 0:30:17.960 --> 0:30:19.880 I've got on people for doing it. And now I 0:30:19.920 --> 0:30:23.960 was lucky enough to stand a few times, but it 0:30:24.120 --> 0:30:26.520 really there has some very funny phone calls. 0:30:26.720 --> 0:30:26.960 Yeah. 0:30:27.040 --> 0:30:29.680 Now, look in terms of your predictions and all of 0:30:29.680 --> 0:30:33.160 that game right where we're going to deal in data 0:30:33.200 --> 0:30:34.880 and all of that. But we'll get to in a second, right, 0:30:35.040 --> 0:30:39.360 but let's deal with medi Scare versus super Scare. All right. 0:30:40.680 --> 0:30:44.200 Both are very effective. One is very late in the game. 0:30:45.040 --> 0:30:48.440 One was very frontloaded and helped change the conversation in 0:30:48.480 --> 0:30:52.280 those early months. Which one is going to be most 0:30:52.320 --> 0:30:57.200 potent going into this absolute final run And now that 0:30:57.240 --> 0:30:59.000 we know that the majority of people will be voting 0:30:59.040 --> 0:31:02.400 on election day, yep, super Scare hasn't been running for 0:31:02.520 --> 0:31:04.600 weeks and weeks and weeks, but Jesus running hard and 0:31:04.840 --> 0:31:09.000 the next couple of days, Michael, but. 0:31:09.040 --> 0:31:14.120 It is running hard. But those with superbalances over three 0:31:14.200 --> 0:31:17.360 million are not that many. Those with a Medicare card 0:31:17.440 --> 0:31:21.640 are quite plentiful, so medicares are much more effective weapon. 0:31:22.600 --> 0:31:25.000 I'd say this about this election. I don't think I've 0:31:25.000 --> 0:31:27.840 ever said anything like it. My first election was nine 0:31:28.000 --> 0:31:30.080 to sixty nine when I handed out for John Gorton 0:31:30.120 --> 0:31:32.680 as a twelve year old. I've never said anything like it. 0:31:32.720 --> 0:31:37.600 I mean the dishonesty, the lies that Albani's in charmers 0:31:37.600 --> 0:31:42.320 have told, the appalling mistakes they've made on budget figures. 0:31:42.840 --> 0:31:46.480 They make things up, they repeat them, they keep repeating them. 0:31:46.800 --> 0:31:51.200 Phil Coury and others know right and say this is wrong. 0:31:51.480 --> 0:31:54.520 They just keep repeating them. The six hundred billion, it's 0:31:54.520 --> 0:31:58.520 a blatant lie. So I don't think Labour can be proud. 0:31:58.560 --> 0:32:00.840 It's a dirty If they win, it's a dirty victory. 0:32:00.920 --> 0:32:04.120 It's a very dirty victory. And when that happens, you 0:32:04.120 --> 0:32:07.320 will get clobbed at the next election. So one of 0:32:07.320 --> 0:32:10.120 the reasons Short lost in nineteen wasn't just because of 0:32:10.160 --> 0:32:15.760 the tax rises. He proposed, but because people felt badly 0:32:15.760 --> 0:32:17.520 that they'd been conned by him in sixteen. 0:32:17.760 --> 0:32:18.200 Good point. 0:32:18.360 --> 0:32:22.040 So Albanez, if he wins on Saturday, he's going to 0:32:22.040 --> 0:32:26.320 have a legacy of people saying, mate, you condus, right, 0:32:26.400 --> 0:32:30.480 you condus on medicare. It was never going to be abolished, cut, 0:32:31.160 --> 0:32:34.800 you know, slashed, burned, nuclear was never going to cost 0:32:34.840 --> 0:32:37.400 six hundred. You just go through the whole list of 0:32:37.440 --> 0:32:41.560 these things. So medicare is very effective. But you know, 0:32:41.880 --> 0:32:44.520 if you win an election by praying on the elderly, 0:32:44.640 --> 0:32:48.720 the infirmed and the sick, by basically scaring the living 0:32:48.800 --> 0:32:51.600 daylights out of them that their healthcare is going to 0:32:51.600 --> 0:32:54.920 be affected by Peter Dutton, you shouldn't very feel proud 0:32:54.960 --> 0:32:56.920 of yourself, mate, you really shouldn't. That's a race to 0:32:56.960 --> 0:33:00.280 the political bottom and he should be ashamed. Albanize. 0:33:00.400 --> 0:33:03.000 Yeah, so, Stephen, in terms of the super scared side 0:33:03.040 --> 0:33:06.880 of things, we read an article yesterday suggesting that this 0:33:06.920 --> 0:33:09.320 could be the difference between majority minority. This could be 0:33:09.520 --> 0:33:12.920 a giant flip of an awful large amount of seats, 0:33:13.120 --> 0:33:14.800 because of course it's not just the people who have 0:33:14.880 --> 0:33:17.000 that three minion, but it's about the younger people who 0:33:17.120 --> 0:33:20.360 will end up tipping in superannuation for a longer working life, 0:33:20.560 --> 0:33:22.520 hoping to be able to warn enough money at some 0:33:22.520 --> 0:33:24.400 point in time that that three million is the number 0:33:24.520 --> 0:33:28.280 that they'll be able to play a plunk with down 0:33:28.320 --> 0:33:31.440 the track. What's either your defense of the MENI scare 0:33:31.600 --> 0:33:33.800 or what is your fear of the super scare? 0:33:35.840 --> 0:33:39.240 Well on the super scare. The thing that's totally distracted 0:33:39.280 --> 0:33:41.960 from the ability for avoiderbles to get it up has 0:33:41.960 --> 0:33:45.880 been that Donald Trump's behavior in the US has seen 0:33:45.880 --> 0:33:50.280 people super innuation from being smashed. People have opened up, 0:33:50.320 --> 0:33:52.560 had a look on their fifty thousand dollars worse off 0:33:52.600 --> 0:33:56.800 because of Donald Trump. So it's been hard to get 0:33:56.800 --> 0:34:00.280 your attention onto. As Michael says, there's not that many 0:34:00.280 --> 0:34:03.880 people now, but everyone who's got it he has been 0:34:03.920 --> 0:34:07.560 losing money immediately in front of their eyes. So I 0:34:07.560 --> 0:34:11.640 think that's really back in the He's going to run 0:34:11.680 --> 0:34:12.319 that did is cell? 0:34:12.400 --> 0:34:14.719 The all ordinaries is up on where it was a 0:34:14.760 --> 0:34:15.280 month ago. 0:34:16.000 --> 0:34:20.440 Up. No, But you know, people remember going down a 0:34:20.440 --> 0:34:25.160 lot more than they remember going on. So I think 0:34:25.200 --> 0:34:27.839 it's a small niche issue that's been drowned up by 0:34:27.880 --> 0:34:31.480 other impacts on the superannuation front on many care I 0:34:31.480 --> 0:34:35.600 think I think Michae always being unkind Albow came out 0:34:35.640 --> 0:34:39.600 from Christmas break and he was firing and all cylinders 0:34:39.920 --> 0:34:43.040 he hadn't had. He wasn't in a way that he 0:34:43.120 --> 0:34:45.760 hadn't been firing for probably eighteen months since the voice. 0:34:45.880 --> 0:34:47.600 He came out. But it wasn't just he came out 0:34:47.600 --> 0:34:49.840 firing and all cylinders. And I've got to give it 0:34:50.000 --> 0:34:52.239 enormous credit to someone most of you have never heard of, 0:34:52.320 --> 0:34:56.320 Paul Erickson, correct, the ALP national secretary and campaign director. 0:34:56.560 --> 0:34:59.800 So Albou came out. He came out with women's health policy. 0:35:00.040 --> 0:35:03.719 So he had about three different health policy initiatives that 0:35:03.880 --> 0:35:07.320 allowed and then to springboard into the Labour's the only 0:35:07.440 --> 0:35:10.520 party that will protect these. We will protect Medicare, we 0:35:10.560 --> 0:35:15.640 will protect these new initiatives, and so Labor have brand 0:35:15.680 --> 0:35:20.640 equity around Medicare. And if you wanted all these new initiatives, 0:35:20.680 --> 0:35:23.080 you had to keep protecting Medicare to take advantage of 0:35:23.120 --> 0:35:27.200 all these new initiatives. So yes, they've run hard. Peter 0:35:27.320 --> 0:35:29.520 Dutton unfortunately has a track record and one of the 0:35:29.560 --> 0:35:32.400 great problems you have when you move from government to 0:35:32.480 --> 0:35:36.719 opposition is you're still carrying the baggage from when you 0:35:36.719 --> 0:35:39.080 were in government. It doesn't matter which ministry you have, 0:35:39.160 --> 0:35:44.399 and it's particularly difficult if you were the minister where 0:35:44.440 --> 0:35:47.799 people can say, remember he was voted by the AMA 0:35:47.880 --> 0:35:50.960 the worst health minister they've ever had. He did these 0:35:51.080 --> 0:35:55.160 cuts and so you know he'll do it again. So 0:35:55.440 --> 0:36:01.280 often you need to have people leave to allow fresher 0:36:01.320 --> 0:36:05.839 people who weren't part of previous governments to be able 0:36:05.920 --> 0:36:09.799 to come through and say we're going to, you know, 0:36:10.080 --> 0:36:12.719 make changes that was someone else, it wasn't me. 0:36:13.000 --> 0:36:14.839 Well, and can I say can I say to that 0:36:14.880 --> 0:36:18.640 to that point as well? Right that? You know, if 0:36:18.680 --> 0:36:21.120 it's fifty three forty seven and we're talking about a 0:36:21.160 --> 0:36:23.920 re elected government with more seats than it went going in, 0:36:24.120 --> 0:36:25.840 then I think you've got to start looking towards the 0:36:25.880 --> 0:36:28.600 things like the News World's Labor Party, who only had 0:36:28.719 --> 0:36:31.520 one one member of his shadow cabinet, was even an 0:36:31.640 --> 0:36:35.440 MP in the one in the government that Kanely was 0:36:35.520 --> 0:36:39.200 leading and got flushed because Labour's got their line and 0:36:39.239 --> 0:36:41.640 length on all of this stuff, and we'll see what happens. 0:36:41.840 --> 0:36:45.160 That said, you know, it is rather selective about what 0:36:45.239 --> 0:36:47.200 the media will let you get away with. And I've 0:36:47.200 --> 0:36:48.920 got to say here, Stephen is a bloke who you 0:36:49.000 --> 0:36:51.880 know again tonight looks like he's playing with the better hand. 0:36:52.400 --> 0:36:54.720 Do you agree with some of my observations of the media. 0:36:54.880 --> 0:36:57.239 Do you agree with just some that there's just the 0:36:57.360 --> 0:37:00.520 idea that the bloke can stand there and say things 0:37:00.560 --> 0:37:02.759 we all know not to be true. But because we 0:37:02.840 --> 0:37:04.560 now live in this world and it's ever been us, 0:37:04.600 --> 0:37:07.080 but still it's more aggressive. Right If the question comes 0:37:07.080 --> 0:37:09.479 from Channel seven, Channel nine won't report it. If something 0:37:09.480 --> 0:37:12.360 happens on Sky News, then ABC pretends it never takes place. 0:37:12.400 --> 0:37:14.680 And that is now happening in the round in terms 0:37:14.680 --> 0:37:17.920 of these journalists in the previous generation of journalists, where 0:37:17.960 --> 0:37:21.280 we've still got people like Edrick Lenell and Phil Koury 0:37:21.680 --> 0:37:24.440 and Chris Human around when they saw that somebody was 0:37:24.480 --> 0:37:26.399 onto something, you'd step back and let them have a crack. 0:37:26.760 --> 0:37:29.920 But it seems like both leaders elbow started it doesn't 0:37:29.920 --> 0:37:32.160 finish finish off with them as well. This sort of 0:37:32.160 --> 0:37:34.480 one question a day thing and please don't upset Daddy 0:37:34.680 --> 0:37:37.600 seems to have been a rather successful tactic. But Father 0:37:37.640 --> 0:37:39.480 Piss Week for those of us watching on right. 0:37:41.160 --> 0:37:44.480 Yeah. Now, look, I've been surprised at the gallery are 0:37:44.520 --> 0:37:48.200 prepared to let whoever is up the front dictate in 0:37:48.280 --> 0:37:53.160 such a way that they're not able to push a point. 0:37:54.000 --> 0:37:58.120 So I think that's cute Osta Albow and Dutton for 0:37:58.200 --> 0:38:01.120 being able to I won't use the word train, but 0:38:01.239 --> 0:38:03.799 I mean, don't forget. This is not you some blow 0:38:03.920 --> 0:38:08.720 called Joebielki. Peterson used to talk about feeding the chucks. 0:38:09.280 --> 0:38:11.040 This is not a new phenomenon. But what I think 0:38:11.080 --> 0:38:13.520 when we talk about the media is that there has 0:38:13.560 --> 0:38:18.680 been a fundamental structural change. This is the first campaign 0:38:19.440 --> 0:38:23.960 where you can say that the Courier, Mail, the Daily Telegraph, 0:38:24.360 --> 0:38:30.480 the Herald's Son, the advertiser in Adelaide have not been 0:38:30.520 --> 0:38:35.120 able to control the debate. My daughter eighteen years old, 0:38:35.200 --> 0:38:37.960 she has never watched the six o'clock news. So it's 0:38:37.960 --> 0:38:44.480 not just those tabloids in Channel nine, Channel eleven, Channel nine, 0:38:44.560 --> 0:38:49.600 Channel seven, Channel ten. They are not the leads anymore. 0:38:50.000 --> 0:38:52.120 You know, if there was a big story, then everyone 0:38:52.120 --> 0:38:55.160 else was forced to. Notwithstanding the point you're making, Paul 0:38:55.800 --> 0:38:58.600 about and which is true that people won't report each 0:38:58.600 --> 0:39:05.560 other's stories, but they they don't dominate the discourse, particularly 0:39:05.560 --> 0:39:09.120 for people under the age of forty, because that has 0:39:09.239 --> 0:39:11.719 really changed structurally. 0:39:12.280 --> 0:39:14.799 Which brings me to those fault lines right about. You know, 0:39:14.840 --> 0:39:17.400 basically a way of just reading the world. And again, 0:39:17.520 --> 0:39:20.040 I know, not all people under fifty, not all people over, 0:39:20.239 --> 0:39:23.120 not all men, not all, but as a way of 0:39:23.160 --> 0:39:25.839 trying to divide the ag MENI people to try to 0:39:25.880 --> 0:39:29.919 work out which way things are going to go. That's 0:39:29.960 --> 0:39:31.520 the way that I'm choosing to do it. In terms 0:39:31.840 --> 0:39:34.160 of literally looking at the number of people that are 0:39:34.239 --> 0:39:37.239 enrolled in what seat, where is that an advantage or 0:39:37.280 --> 0:39:40.880 a disadvantage to you? And again, the picture of this election, 0:39:41.400 --> 0:39:43.560 more people under the age of fifty than over the 0:39:43.600 --> 0:39:46.759 age of fifty, more women than men. In terms of 0:39:46.800 --> 0:39:49.399 the marginals. If Labor's going to lose seats, it's going 0:39:49.440 --> 0:39:52.800 to be because of the seats that are currently marginal, 0:39:53.400 --> 0:39:57.920 seven out of ten of them have over fifty percent sorry, 0:39:58.320 --> 0:40:01.600 over fifty year old. If the Liberals are going to 0:40:01.640 --> 0:40:04.040 lose seats, it's going to be because in those seats, 0:40:04.320 --> 0:40:08.279 ten out of ten have more female voters. What do 0:40:08.320 --> 0:40:10.239 you think about this as a way of trying to 0:40:10.280 --> 0:40:15.200 carve up the pie. And again, demographics can be difficult, 0:40:15.560 --> 0:40:17.400 and that's why we end up with things like that 0:40:17.440 --> 0:40:19.200 you GOV poll where they go and do a survey 0:40:19.239 --> 0:40:21.000 and then they mix it in with all the people 0:40:21.000 --> 0:40:22.680 that are around and you get up a sou flew 0:40:22.719 --> 0:40:25.240 that says, two months ago the liberal parties winning seventy 0:40:25.239 --> 0:40:28.320 three seats and today the Labor Party is winning eighty four. 0:40:28.640 --> 0:40:30.439 But as a way of cutting it, have I cut 0:40:30.480 --> 0:40:34.240 it reasonably well Michael to understand what might be happening here? 0:40:36.480 --> 0:40:38.880 Yes, and no, it makes a lot of sense what 0:40:38.920 --> 0:40:44.840 you're saying. And the press are obsessed with describing elections 0:40:44.880 --> 0:40:48.480 by these individual demographics, and that's the answer to the election. 0:40:49.360 --> 0:40:51.560 The real answer is this, if you are winning the 0:40:51.600 --> 0:40:56.040 policy debate, you will win the election. Right unless your 0:40:56.040 --> 0:40:58.279 a government's expiring after the India term. You've been there 0:40:58.320 --> 0:41:01.960 twelve thirty four in years. You will win if you 0:41:02.040 --> 0:41:04.680 win the policy debate and you convince people as to 0:41:04.719 --> 0:41:06.400 the merit of your policy prescription. 0:41:06.800 --> 0:41:09.520 But as you know, you've got to start that debate early. 0:41:10.200 --> 0:41:13.400 And can I just make one of the points Stephen 0:41:13.440 --> 0:41:15.239 makes me laugh when you talk about Paul Ericks and 0:41:15.280 --> 0:41:17.160 the federal director lower party. We're going to give him 0:41:17.160 --> 0:41:21.600 great credit this, Paul Erickson Blake. I laugh because mate, 0:41:22.120 --> 0:41:24.680 in the Liberal Party, it's an article of faith. If 0:41:24.680 --> 0:41:29.000 you win the election, the leader's a genius and no 0:41:29.080 --> 0:41:33.680 one really mentions the Federal director. If you lose, it's all. 0:41:33.520 --> 0:41:34.840 The fault of the Federal director. 0:41:35.000 --> 0:41:39.720 So reading between the lines from James Campbell's wonderful article 0:41:39.760 --> 0:41:42.439 in the Herald Sun today and the Daily Telegraph today, 0:41:42.760 --> 0:41:44.799 reading between the lines, you get the impression that some 0:41:44.840 --> 0:41:46.960 people are unhappy with the Federal Director and maybe the 0:41:46.960 --> 0:41:49.760 Liberal Party hasn't run a good campaign. All that and 0:41:49.840 --> 0:41:52.080 you know it's no good and I think, but hang on, 0:41:52.480 --> 0:41:55.520 this guy, Andrew Hurst is a federal director. He was 0:41:55.520 --> 0:41:57.560 the Federal Director in nineteen and everyone told me he 0:41:57.640 --> 0:42:02.799 was a complete genius. The answer is he was a 0:42:02.840 --> 0:42:05.400 genius in nineteen, but in twenty five he is not. Listen, 0:42:05.680 --> 0:42:08.640 that's all nonsense, right, What Stephen's saying is nonsense. Right. 0:42:09.200 --> 0:42:12.000 You win and lose elections depending on the performance of 0:42:12.040 --> 0:42:15.200 the Parliamentary Party and the parliamentary leadership over the previous 0:42:15.200 --> 0:42:19.120 three years. A federal director, a state director, right, whoever 0:42:19.120 --> 0:42:22.400 they are, the ADVERTI of the agency, the bootstrappers, the candidates. 0:42:22.800 --> 0:42:26.280 They can only hang on the performance of the parliamentary party. 0:42:26.640 --> 0:42:29.759 If the parliamentary party doesn't perform, you can have the 0:42:29.800 --> 0:42:33.160 state director from or federal director from heaven, you won't 0:42:33.160 --> 0:42:36.520 win the election. Right in nineteen what happened, Bill Shorten 0:42:36.560 --> 0:42:38.440 played on our home turf because he had all these 0:42:38.480 --> 0:42:42.319 four hundred billion dollars of tax increases. So of course 0:42:42.320 --> 0:42:43.919 we were in a good campaign. We won the election. 0:42:44.000 --> 0:42:47.560 He played on our home turf. Everyone told me the 0:42:47.560 --> 0:42:51.640 federal director was a complete genius, and so be careful 0:42:51.680 --> 0:42:55.080 about these these these you know, you know Monday morning 0:42:55.160 --> 0:42:57.120 quarterbacks that say it was this, it was that. 0:42:57.280 --> 0:42:57.320 No. 0:42:57.440 --> 0:43:00.880 Look, if the parliamentary leadership performance, they don't perform, you 0:43:00.920 --> 0:43:03.799 don't win. That's the bottom line. Don't start blaming the start. 0:43:03.880 --> 0:43:06.560 But I listen to the people around him. You get 0:43:06.560 --> 0:43:10.080 the result of the past two years. Someone somewhere got 0:43:10.520 --> 0:43:12.200 the other side of his year and changed. 0:43:12.800 --> 0:43:17.400 That's exactly right, Yeah, all right, down trajectory before Christmas. 0:43:17.440 --> 0:43:21.240 Correct, ignore Murferu, pay attention to Paul Ericks and perhaps 0:43:21.320 --> 0:43:23.680 would be the advices of the future, or maybe they'll 0:43:23.680 --> 0:43:24.920 just get into the thing where we only have to 0:43:25.000 --> 0:43:26.480 do that with a couple of months to go all right, 0:43:26.600 --> 0:43:28.480 quick break back with more or start getting into the 0:43:28.520 --> 0:43:34.439 seat predictions. Next two things we can all agree on. One. 0:43:34.719 --> 0:43:36.600 Wasn't it awesome that in the Turnbull Times they had 0:43:36.600 --> 0:43:40.319 to publish a poll that said the least popular of 0:43:40.360 --> 0:43:44.200 the former prime ministers was Malcolm Turnbull. Second midnight tonight 0:43:44.239 --> 0:43:46.719 the TV had stopped. All right, now, a lot of 0:43:46.719 --> 0:43:48.160 people have been sending me he must go, and there's 0:43:48.160 --> 0:43:50.000 lots of more Labors and liberal eights to look. One 0:43:50.000 --> 0:43:52.399 of the advantages when you decide when the election is 0:43:52.400 --> 0:43:53.799 is you know when the first day will be and 0:43:53.800 --> 0:43:55.960 when the last day will be. There's only so much 0:43:56.000 --> 0:43:58.760 time and you can book into that time. So surprise, surprise, 0:43:58.920 --> 0:44:02.000 you're seeing what you're seeing. Its TV stations picking winners. 0:44:02.440 --> 0:44:04.880 A rare moment of defense for my business, as I 0:44:05.080 --> 0:44:07.600 occasionally ignore the hand that feeds. We are here with 0:44:07.640 --> 0:44:10.920 Steve Conry, with Michael Kroger. It's fun to watch anyway 0:44:10.920 --> 0:44:12.719 for people it seems to have worked over fifteen years. 0:44:12.800 --> 0:44:15.399 May be. So for the next look, let's get into 0:44:15.400 --> 0:44:17.200 some quick, some speed round stuff here. I want to 0:44:17.200 --> 0:44:20.960 talk about the Polar coaster because someone's going to be 0:44:21.000 --> 0:44:24.400 really wrong here. Now, Yes, they're starting to kind of 0:44:24.400 --> 0:44:28.600 get between fifty two forty eight or fifty three forty 0:44:28.640 --> 0:44:31.040 seven or margin de vera means we're all technically within 0:44:31.120 --> 0:44:35.040 six points. Okay. The people that are doing the internal 0:44:35.120 --> 0:44:38.440 polling for the Labor Party are the people behind the 0:44:38.440 --> 0:44:40.440 news pole. That doesn't mean Newspole is working for the 0:44:40.520 --> 0:44:43.240 Labor Party. And the people that are doing the internal 0:44:43.239 --> 0:44:45.640 polling the Liberal Party the ones doing the freshwater poling 0:44:45.640 --> 0:44:47.560 which is turning up in the Financial Review. Now, I 0:44:47.560 --> 0:44:49.279 have mentioned that they've kind of been shushed for a 0:44:49.280 --> 0:44:51.359 while at certain points in time. In fact, their last 0:44:51.360 --> 0:44:54.239 pole said that the Libs would win ten seats at 0:44:54.239 --> 0:44:57.319 this election. Well, this is the pole that has just 0:44:57.360 --> 0:45:00.239 been released tonight in the Financial Review, and each the 0:45:00.280 --> 0:45:03.960 most generous of the fifty fifty split to the coalition, 0:45:04.000 --> 0:45:05.920 suggesting that it's more fifty one and a bit to 0:45:06.440 --> 0:45:09.640 forty nine and a bit as opposed to sorry forty 0:45:09.680 --> 0:45:12.520 eight and a bit as opposed to the fifty two's 0:45:12.719 --> 0:45:15.759 and the fifty threes. Thirty seconds from each of you 0:45:15.800 --> 0:45:16.960 about the polar coaster. 0:45:17.920 --> 0:45:25.400 Your thoughts, Michael, Well, look, if the fifty two forty 0:45:25.400 --> 0:45:28.920 eight is correct, then alban Eesi is back, because that'll 0:45:28.960 --> 0:45:31.759 just show a minute swing against him, fifty one and 0:45:31.840 --> 0:45:33.400 a half forty eight and a half. There's a bit 0:45:33.480 --> 0:45:36.920 over half swing against him, which means the Coalition win 0:45:36.960 --> 0:45:40.600 a few seats. What I don't know is this, I 0:45:40.600 --> 0:45:43.399 don't know how much there's a shy dutt In Vader 0:45:43.440 --> 0:45:46.840 effect like there is with conservative parties around the world. 0:45:47.840 --> 0:45:50.480 I don't know how much people have been fooled by 0:45:50.719 --> 0:45:52.600 the campaign. I don't know whether in the last week 0:45:52.640 --> 0:45:55.120 people think I've just I've been conned by Albanizi. I 0:45:55.120 --> 0:45:57.920 don't want to be a mug And I don't know 0:45:58.880 --> 0:46:02.640 how much the press differences from the conservative right parties 0:46:02.719 --> 0:46:05.680 are going to how much that's going to increase. So 0:46:05.880 --> 0:46:10.000 normally we've got sixty four percent of one Nation, sixty 0:46:10.000 --> 0:46:13.360 two percent of UOP straight Trumpet, and seventy two percent 0:46:13.520 --> 0:46:16.600 of libertarian I think they could all be in the eighties. 0:46:17.280 --> 0:46:20.040 So there's another one or save percent. I don't know 0:46:20.120 --> 0:46:22.920 how much that's going to increase. So there are some 0:46:23.040 --> 0:46:25.680 factors which might mean the coalition vote is quite a 0:46:25.680 --> 0:46:28.920 bit better. And finally, in some of these marginal seats, 0:46:29.000 --> 0:46:31.279 I wonder whether our candidates have done very well, and 0:46:31.320 --> 0:46:34.279 whether the Labor vote is actually increasing in its own 0:46:34.360 --> 0:46:37.719 safe seats, because there have been big swings against lab 0:46:37.760 --> 0:46:39.839 particularly in Victoria and its own seats in the twenty 0:46:39.880 --> 0:46:42.480 two election. Maybe that's come back to labor and not 0:46:42.520 --> 0:46:43.560 so much in the marginals. 0:46:43.680 --> 0:46:45.759 All Right, sports bet has put out a list of, 0:46:45.920 --> 0:46:49.319 according to their betting markets, who they think is going 0:46:49.360 --> 0:46:51.959 to win seats. This is all parties, independence and the rest. 0:46:52.080 --> 0:46:55.399 And guess what, it's bugger all. It's basically exactly where 0:46:55.400 --> 0:46:57.440 we are. A couple this way, a couple that way. 0:46:57.480 --> 0:47:00.399 If we can bring that up guys at to see 0:47:00.400 --> 0:47:01.680 he was a lot of wins for the coalition, but 0:47:01.719 --> 0:47:03.400 these are people who were elected at the last election 0:47:03.520 --> 0:47:08.560 as coalition MPs. Those independent seats would just essentially go 0:47:08.680 --> 0:47:11.800 back to where we were. The only games for the 0:47:11.840 --> 0:47:15.280 coalition would be winning from the Greens in and around Brisbane, 0:47:15.960 --> 0:47:20.480 winning from Gilmour on the south coast of New South Wales, 0:47:21.080 --> 0:47:23.080 winning Aston, which of course was the seat lost at 0:47:23.080 --> 0:47:24.880 a by election, which means you're back to the number 0:47:25.040 --> 0:47:31.120 basically sort of plus two from the twenty twenty two election. 0:47:31.280 --> 0:47:34.000 In terms of labor, they would be able to gain 0:47:34.200 --> 0:47:39.040 a seat from the Greens, and in terms of Labor 0:47:39.080 --> 0:47:41.120 taking a seat anywhere else, I can't see it in 0:47:41.120 --> 0:47:44.759 that list. But again Labor Party suggests that some of 0:47:44.760 --> 0:47:46.839 this polling might put them in and around and even 0:47:46.880 --> 0:47:50.080 that positive polling in Freshwater puts them bang on seventy six. 0:47:50.400 --> 0:47:55.719 So lads, tell me dark horses, weird predictions. Give me 0:47:55.760 --> 0:48:01.640 your thirty seconds so everyone can replay the tape on Monday. Stephen, Look, I. 0:48:01.640 --> 0:48:05.120 Think it's a really interesting contest in foul. That was 0:48:05.120 --> 0:48:09.840 the seat that Christina Kanneely ran in and she lost 0:48:10.000 --> 0:48:14.399 to a high profile Independence. But there's a lot of 0:48:14.680 --> 0:48:19.920 talk around Labor maybe just picking that seat back up. 0:48:20.360 --> 0:48:22.640 I think that's one to watch on election night. 0:48:22.920 --> 0:48:27.360 All right, Michael, Well, the most fascinating seat in the 0:48:27.400 --> 0:48:31.040 country is McNamara, where Josh Burn's income at Labor MPs 0:48:31.200 --> 0:48:34.960 under threat from the Liberals and possibly the Greens. If 0:48:34.960 --> 0:48:38.839 he comes third, which he may well do, then his 0:48:38.960 --> 0:48:42.440 preferences may elect the Greens, which would horrify a lot 0:48:42.440 --> 0:48:45.279 of people. I think the one thing we can say 0:48:45.360 --> 0:48:47.719 is mate. When the three of us get together next week, 0:48:47.760 --> 0:48:51.480 we're going to say to each other that was totally unexpected. 0:48:51.760 --> 0:48:54.200 Whatever it was, there will be some shock results. There 0:48:54.239 --> 0:48:57.799 will be some shock results on Saturday night that no 0:48:57.880 --> 0:49:01.360 one saw coming and we will be absolutely bewilders to 0:49:01.400 --> 0:49:04.600 how various things happened. So what those are, we don't know, 0:49:04.960 --> 0:49:07.600 but there will be some absolute shock results which will 0:49:07.600 --> 0:49:08.480 surprise everybody. 0:49:08.560 --> 0:49:11.040 Yep, bloody oath all right. I think a little shy 0:49:11.120 --> 0:49:13.200 thing here is just pay attention to some of the 0:49:13.239 --> 0:49:15.520 Teal vote that might be a little higher than people 0:49:15.560 --> 0:49:19.040 think in Queensland only because published polls they're up seven 0:49:19.080 --> 0:49:22.040 points on where they were at the last election. One nation. 0:49:22.160 --> 0:49:23.759 I think they are going to go way above where 0:49:23.760 --> 0:49:26.760 they were at the last election, and preferences means again 0:49:26.800 --> 0:49:29.400 some thing's become more competitive. But if the government's re elected, 0:49:29.440 --> 0:49:33.120 guess what, that's what always happens. We're the first term government. 0:49:33.160 --> 0:49:35.000 Thank you guys, do appreciate it. We'll see you again 0:49:35.040 --> 0:49:37.239 and I'll see on Saturday night for the coverage up. 0:49:37.280 --> 0:49:37.880 Go Yankees.