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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. Global financial markets are in

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Speaker 1: turmoil over Donald Trump's economic policy, as China announces tariffs

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Speaker 1: against the US in retaliation, The cost of living front

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Speaker 1: and center as federal parliament returns, and local sales of

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Speaker 1: Tesla tumble, plus Westpac offers a year's free legal advice

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Speaker 1: to entice small businesses to bankwe them, and Australia's biggest

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Speaker 1: glassmaker goes into administration. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily

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Speaker 1: business news for people who make their own decisions. It

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Speaker 1: is Wednesday, the fifth of February twenty twenty five. Are

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson and Good Morning, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Aylmer, Good Morning, Michael Sewn.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. Donald trump diplomacy continues to

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Speaker 1: rile financial markets, with the Aussie dollar bouncing yesterday and

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Speaker 1: the local share market rebounding before falling away at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day.

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Speaker 2: Do you remember mad com and the guy that used

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Speaker 2: to Alfred E. Numan and part of I remember who

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Speaker 2: was running for mayor in the nineteen seventies in New

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Speaker 2: York City. Now he wasn't literally running for mayor. Mad

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Speaker 2: Comic had a character running for mayor and his motto

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Speaker 2: was a voice of indecision amidst all the uncertainty, and

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Speaker 2: when you hear what's going on at the moment, there

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Speaker 2: is so much uncertainty around the place, and an indecisive president,

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Speaker 2: inasmuch as he changes his mind, makes it very, very difficult.

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Speaker 2: It's hard to keep up because things are changing by

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Speaker 2: the album. What we do know right now is that

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Speaker 2: Mexican President Claudia Schinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

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Speaker 2: both negotiated the Pope's ponment of the twenty five percent

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Speaker 2: tariff on imports from both nations, which the US had

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Speaker 2: scheduled to kick in yesterday. We also know that Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump has spoken to Ukraine and he wants to access

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Speaker 2: Ukrainian rare earths which he used in electrification, in return

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Speaker 2: for sporting supporting the war effort against Russia. That suggests

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Speaker 2: the US will continue to ride funds and equipment to Kiev.

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Speaker 2: We weren't sure that was going to happen. He's also

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Speaker 2: signed an executive action to create a sovereign wealth fund

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Speaker 2: for the US that might be used to facilitate the

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Speaker 2: sale of TikTok, and which is quite remarkable. You now

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Speaker 2: have countries offering stuff to Donald Trump in the hope

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Speaker 2: that will prevent tariffs. An example, India, it's Prime Minister Nourendramodi.

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Speaker 2: He has cut duties on imports from textiles and motorcycles,

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Speaker 2: and he's pledged to accept thousands of unlawful migrants from

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Speaker 2: the US. He also said he'll maintain, or at least

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Speaker 2: India will maintain the US dollar as its trading currency.

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Speaker 2: So you now have countries going to Donald Trump preemptively

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Speaker 2: offering stuff.

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot of talk that Donald Trump would

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Speaker 1: use these tariffs as as a negotiating tactic and almost

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Speaker 1: as a warning to other countries as well. Just based

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Speaker 1: on what you're saying with India, it sounds as though

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Speaker 1: that may be effective.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, it's effective ten thousand more National Guard troops on

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Speaker 2: the Mexican border. The Canadian government also agreed to titan

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Speaker 2: rules around the border between Canada and the US, So

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Speaker 2: the big sledgehammer is working somewhat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely. What about China though, because tariff's due to

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Speaker 1: come into effect overnight. That's the extra ten percent that

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Speaker 1: we've been talking about.

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Speaker 2: And China is a totally different ballgame to any other country.

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Speaker 2: It's the world's second biggest economy. It I mean particularly

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Speaker 2: around goods, less say services, but goods think TVs, fridges,

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Speaker 2: all that sort of stuff, really important provider of products

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Speaker 2: all around the world. Last night the deadline for tariffs

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Speaker 2: to be imposed came and went. China said that it

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Speaker 2: will now impose So came and went, so tarifts are

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Speaker 2: in place. Theoretically, China said it will impose retaliate tree

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Speaker 2: tariffs against the US that will hit US imports of

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Speaker 2: large engine cars for example, trucks, coal, LNG oil, agricultural machinery.

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Speaker 2: So it looks like at this point, you know, whenever

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Speaker 2: I say this, it could change in the next hour.

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Speaker 2: So it's really hard to be too definitive on any

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Speaker 2: of this. But this point, those ten percent tariffs are

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Speaker 2: in play.

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Speaker 1: This is essentially a snapshot of the situation, as it

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Speaker 1: is right amount of recording. And this is an entirely

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Speaker 1: fluid situation, which seems strange to be talking about about

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Speaker 1: such major global events as being so fluid, and things

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Speaker 1: like trade deals and things which take so long to negotiate,

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Speaker 1: And here we have entire trade policies being rewritten in hours.

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Speaker 1: Incredible extraordinary. So what's happened to financial markets as a

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Speaker 1: result of the last twenty four hours.

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Speaker 2: Well, confusion seems to be the most often used word.

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Speaker 2: The sage advice from people who's always looked through the noise.

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Speaker 2: The problem is with Trump, you just don't know what noise.

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Speaker 2: We know what's noise and what's not. Oil prices dropped

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Speaker 2: sharply yesterday after the post payment of tariffs on Canada

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Speaker 2: copper prices, which is a good bell whether for the

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Speaker 2: global outlook. They jumped. Gold is training new record highs.

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Speaker 2: A good place to put money in uncertain times. Gold.

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Speaker 2: The Aussie dollar is back under sixty two usins. It bounced,

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Speaker 2: but then it's come back again, bad news for anyone

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Speaker 2: traveling overseas. Obviously, Crypto bounced big time. Bitcoin was up

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Speaker 2: about seven percent to about one hundred thousand US size

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Speaker 2: a unit ethereum, which fell more than twenty percent twenty

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Speaker 2: four hours ago is what was up twelve percent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: You have an interview coming up after the show, Sean,

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Speaker 1: and you're speaking with Caroline Bowler from BTC Markets and

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Speaker 1: speaking of a snapshot in time. This was recorded yesterday afternoon,

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Speaker 1: and really it is a reflection on kind of what

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Speaker 1: is what lies ahead?

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Speaker 2: That's right, Yeah, And Caroline's very sensible and she sort

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Speaker 2: of said, with all this going on, the bottom line

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Speaker 2: here is that Donald Trump will be much friendlier to

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Speaker 2: digital assets and cryptocurrencies than the previous regime. And I

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Speaker 2: think everyone agrees with that. And so she's certainly pushing

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Speaker 2: to look through what's happening minute by minute at the

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Speaker 2: moment and think about digital assets in that way. So

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Speaker 2: it's a great, I mean, a very timely chat given

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Speaker 2: everything that's going on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, What about local markets. What's been the impact

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Speaker 1: in the last twenty four hours.

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Speaker 2: Well, yesterday we're talking about Monday's two percent drop. The

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Speaker 2: market opened yesterday, the S and PA six two hundred

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Speaker 2: took off, sort of recouping most of the losses. Then

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Speaker 2: it just fell all day and finished actually lower about

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Speaker 2: five points lower to three hundred and seventy four points.

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Speaker 2: Techtocs were easily the best performers. Marriad Wall Street minors

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Speaker 2: also rallied after hopes that Trump would speak to the

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Speaker 2: Chinese government about tariffs. Energy companies fell back as all

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Speaker 2: prices dropped. Investment trust underperformed. I mean, what's uncertainty. I

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Speaker 2: suppose that's how you have to describe our local market

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Speaker 2: at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Uncertain all right, Sean, we have plenty still to come.

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Speaker 1: It just feels like such a I know, it's such

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Speaker 1: a such a massive start to the show, and really

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Speaker 1: something like this it does just suck all of the

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Speaker 1: oxygen out of so much of what is going on.

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Speaker 1: But there is still plenty to discuss. You got to

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Speaker 1: talk about the sales of Tesla vehicles. They have dropped

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Speaker 1: sharply in Australia. Has some good news for small business

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Speaker 1: customers potentially looking for a for a good deal from

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Speaker 1: a bank, and Federal Parliament back in session. That and

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Speaker 1: plenty more will be back in a moment with the

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Speaker 1: rest of the day's business news, Sean. Federal Parliament was

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Speaker 1: back in session yesterday and there was some agreement, plenty

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Speaker 1: of disagreement though. On day one of the new year,

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Speaker 1: everyone started at church, which is obviously lovely. It's the tradition,

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Speaker 1: isn't it, and it's nice to see these traditions being upheld. Afterwards,

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Speaker 1: there was agreement over the vile nature of anti Semitism

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Speaker 1: in Australia. Then there was disagreement over the government's handling

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Speaker 1: of the current outbreak. Prime Minister Anthony Albernezi obviously defended

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Speaker 1: his handling of it, citing the creation of new offenses

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Speaker 1: and more funding for Holocaust education. Then you had oppositionally

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Speaker 1: to Peter Dutton saying that the Jewish community was paying

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Speaker 1: the price for the lack of a strong stance against

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Speaker 1: the anti Israel protests since October twenty twenty three. It

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Speaker 1: did not take long for the Rgi Bardi over this

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Speaker 1: and such a serious, such a massive issue to kick off.

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Speaker 2: What's interesting is that Peter Dutton and Anthony Alberanesi both

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Speaker 2: had press conferences yesterday. Peter Dutton fos focused on anti Semitism.

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Speaker 2: Anthony Alberesi didn't. It's not an area where I mean,

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Speaker 2: it appears that he doesn't think he's going to make

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Speaker 2: much ground there. In fact, his conference was all about

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Speaker 2: early childhood education policies. Then we had questioned time. There

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Speaker 2: was a lot of discussion about lunch, well more specifically

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Speaker 2: the cost of Peter Dutton's promise to allow a tax

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Speaker 2: deduction for small business lunches, which he made last month.

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Speaker 2: Costings on that somewhere between two billion and ten billions.

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Speaker 2: So the government went very hard on that. But you know,

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Speaker 2: as you just said, then the anti Semitism, which is

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Speaker 2: a real problem, is certainly where the coalition is playing

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Speaker 2: at the moment and the government is staying away from it.

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Speaker 1: This next one shot, I find this really interesting. This

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Speaker 1: feels like a bank being quite creative in what they're

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Speaker 1: in what they're looking to do. Westpac is offering business

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Speaker 1: customers a year is worth of basic legal services. Essentially,

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Speaker 1: Westpac is looking to boost at small business portfolio and

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Speaker 1: this is something that they're looking to lure people with.

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Speaker 2: We were talking last week about the banks trying to

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Speaker 2: lure deposits and boost that part of their business. Well,

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Speaker 2: this is about the small business sector. National Australia Bank

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Speaker 2: is the main small business banker in the country. It's

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Speaker 2: got about twenty one percent market share. Commonwealth Bank's done

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Speaker 2: really well in this area, it's up to about nineteen percent.

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Speaker 2: Westpac is up to about sixteen percent, but the fastest

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Speaker 2: growing and it makes about thirty percent of earnings from

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Speaker 2: business banking nowadays. It has spent ten million dollars investing

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Speaker 2: in a legal services provider Law Path. It will now

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Speaker 2: allow new customers twelve months worth of access to archives

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Speaker 2: of legal documents and business registration services. Now we run

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Speaker 2: you and I run a small business. Business registration services

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Speaker 2: are very valuable to get some help on that. So

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Speaker 2: this is Westpac's way of thinking laterally about attracting customers

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Speaker 2: and helping them with their legal advice.

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Speaker 1: Interesting idea. Woolworth's boss, Amanda Bardwell has restructured her management

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Speaker 1: team as she looks to boost sales across the chain

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Speaker 1: and particularly it's home brand products.

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Speaker 2: She's created a position of Managing Director of Woolworth's Retail.

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Speaker 2: A woman called Annette karen Toni, who was previously chief

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Speaker 2: supply Officer, now has that. Gigs at karen Toni Wilcarfter Supermarkets,

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Speaker 2: the red meat processing and supply business it's known as Greenstock,

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Speaker 2: the broader home brands operation and grocery delivery company Milk

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Speaker 2: Run that is a massive Portfolilio forms. Karen Toni Woolies

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Speaker 2: is under pressure at the moment. Late last year it

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Speaker 2: said it was heading for lower profits and it had

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Speaker 2: to up discounting. Of course, there's regulatory pressure at the

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Speaker 2: competition watchdog, the ah Trible C is looking into pricing

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Speaker 2: behavior of both Woolies and Coals it's pressure around. Its

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Speaker 2: share price down sixteen percent over the last twelve months.

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Speaker 2: Certainly one of the worst of the large caps last year.

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Speaker 2: So Amanda Bardwell, the CEO, is trying to take some action.

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Speaker 1: There's still a bit of other stuff going on. What

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Speaker 1: corporate news have you been keeping an eye on?

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Speaker 2: A few highlights. Seeks proposed acquisition of ex Ref for

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Speaker 2: forty two million dollars felt through. The shareholders of XRAF

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Speaker 2: didn't want to do the deal. New Farms share price

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Speaker 2: rose four percent after it said it's previously announced cost

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Speaker 2: cutting program remains on track. Promedicus, one of the best

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Speaker 2: stocks of last year, jumped five percent yesterday after the

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Speaker 2: company signed a fifty three million dollar contract with US

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Speaker 2: healthcare network bay Care to rile out its visage diagnostic

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Speaker 2: imaging platform. You know, Promedicus one of the best last

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Speaker 2: year's throwing out twelve percent this year. Incredible, not a.

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Speaker 1: Bad start of the year. The same can't be said

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Speaker 1: for Tesla sales Sean. The sales of the Tesla evs

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Speaker 1: in Australia fell thirty three percent last month, according to

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Speaker 1: the Electric Vehicle Council.

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Speaker 2: So the Electric Vehicle Council said seven hundred and thirty

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Speaker 2: nine Tesla models were sold in January, compared to more

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Speaker 2: than eleven hundred twelve months earlier. Pollster EV's also had

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Speaker 2: a sales slide. They fell forty five percent, just eighty

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Speaker 2: two vehicles in January. That's a very bad start to

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Speaker 2: this year. Mind you, last year was pretty good. EV

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Speaker 2: sales exceeded one hundred thousand for the first time, or

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Speaker 2: at least they're estimated to have exceeded one hundred thousand

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Speaker 2: for the first time, about nine and a half percent

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Speaker 2: market share. If you live in Canberra, you are more well.

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Speaker 2: That's that am I saying this Michael. Canberra residents are

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Speaker 2: the most likely to buy an electric vehicle, Tensla model

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Speaker 2: wise the biggest seller. The good news is that public

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Speaker 2: charging stations have doubled in the last two months. Are

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Speaker 2: now over a thousand fast charging sites nationwide. But the

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Speaker 2: industry goal of reaching fifty percent of sales by twenty

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Speaker 2: thirty looks a little bit optimistic.

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Speaker 1: My local shopping center, Sean has a massive bank of

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Speaker 1: Tesla branded EV charging stations underneath, and it was a

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Speaker 1: relatively new kind of development and when they first did

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Speaker 1: that about five years ago, I remember driving in, What

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Speaker 1: on earth are they Why are they putting so many

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Speaker 1: of these in? No one's ever going to use that

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Speaker 1: many And it was just empty, empty, empty empty. Now

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Speaker 1: I drive through and every single spot is taken up

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Speaker 1: with a Tesla charging. So you can see it happening

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Speaker 1: and you can see the demand for these public charging stations.

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Speaker 2: It's really fascinating where they put them. So my local

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Speaker 2: golf course has got EV charging stations. So all these

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Speaker 2: places where you go for you know, one, two, three hours,

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Speaker 2: they're really good spots for EV charging stations.

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Speaker 1: Yes, it's pretty amazing, amazing, Sean, I need to tell

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Speaker 1: you about a story. It's out of New South Wales politics, right,

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Speaker 1: but it is. It's a it's a story that is

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Speaker 1: really pretty staggering, right. The New South Wales Transport Minister

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Speaker 1: Joe Halen has resigned over what she called errors of

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Speaker 1: judgment in her use of a taxpayer funded driver. A

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Speaker 1: little bit of background to this one over the weekend

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Speaker 1: and this is dominated headlines for a few days in

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Speaker 1: New South Wales over the weekend. At Miss Halen apologized

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Speaker 1: and agreed to repay about seven hundred and fifty dollars

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Speaker 1: for a four hundred and forty six kilometer thirteen hour

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Speaker 1: round trip for a driver to come from Sydney to

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Speaker 1: her holiday home essentially on the central coast of New

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Speaker 1: South Wales and take her to lunch at a Hunter

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Speaker 1: Valley winery over the Australia Day Long weekend. Part of

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Speaker 1: the big issue with that was not just the distance,

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Speaker 1: but the fact that the driver had to travel from

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Speaker 1: Sydney to this home at Caves Beach and then to

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Speaker 1: the restaurant and wait for about three hours or so

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Speaker 1: while this kind of lunch was taking place. Yesterday it

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Speaker 1: emerged that she'd taken a second trip to the Hunter

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Speaker 1: Valley with her husband last year. Also, she's claimed to

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Speaker 1: have used her driver entitlement to travel to the Blue

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Speaker 1: Mountains for lunch with her chief of staff and from

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Speaker 1: Caves Speech which I mentioned, which is about one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty odd CA's north of Sydney to the city,

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Speaker 1: including dropping her children at weekends games all technically within

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Speaker 1: the rules, but as she said across the weekend, it

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Speaker 1: does not pass the pub test.

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Speaker 2: And it does not absolutely I mean she's no longer

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Speaker 2: Transport Minister. She's I going to leave Parliament. Obviously been

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Speaker 2: a problem for the Men's government. In fact, twenty four

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Speaker 2: hours ago, Chris means the Premier was actually backing here,

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Speaker 2: but not surprising. She's no longer there, Michael.

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Speaker 1: No, no, not a huge surprise. Australia's largest glass maker,

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Speaker 1: Sean I mentioned this at the top of the show

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Speaker 1: and the only maker of architectural glass Oceania Glass has

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Speaker 1: been placed in administration less than a year after its

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Speaker 1: successfully argued that China and Thailand were dumping cheap glass

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Speaker 1: into the Australian market.

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Speaker 2: Grant Thornton has been installed as administrator of the dand

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Speaker 2: Andong based company and will continue to run it while

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Speaker 2: they assessed the state of the business. According to a

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Speaker 2: report in The Australian, two hundred and fifty people's jobs

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Speaker 2: are at risk here companies owned by private equity investors

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Speaker 2: CRES and Capital Partners Now. Last year It's successful we

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Speaker 2: argued that Chinese and entire competitors were dumping glass products

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Speaker 2: onto the Australian market. Great history. This company, found in

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Speaker 2: eighteen fifty six, claims to be the only architectural glass

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Speaker 2: manufacturer in Australia. Anyway, post the dumping of that glass,

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Speaker 2: it hasn't made it or it looks like it may

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Speaker 2: not made it. It may not make it. It's in administration.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news now, and unsurprisingly returning to the

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Speaker 1: US Sean, Donald Trump says Elon Musk can't do anything

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Speaker 1: without his approval? Is this all came about after the

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Speaker 1: cost cuttings are Elon Musk. It's a great way to

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Speaker 1: describe him, isn't it? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: It is great.

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Speaker 1: Cuttings are It was accused of breaching the constitution.

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Speaker 2: So the x or, a nearly appointed head of the

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Speaker 2: Department of Government Efficiency Dooge, really caused ripples when he

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Speaker 2: pledged to abolish the US Agency for International Development. He

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Speaker 2: called it a criminal organization. Representatives from mister Musk's organization

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Speaker 2: were granted access to secure Treasury systems over the weekend,

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Speaker 2: raising fears he could cut payments to state programs such

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Speaker 2: as Medicaid that provides healthcare and medions of low income Americans.

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Speaker 2: It all got too much of Democratic legislators in the Senate.

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Speaker 2: They wrote to the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, raising

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Speaker 2: deep concerns about mister Musk's department accessing classified information and

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Speaker 2: risking national security. Donald Trump's been an under a bit

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Speaker 2: of pressure on this one, and he appears to be

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Speaker 2: trying to reel in. Mister Musk, good luck with that.

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Speaker 2: I will give him the approval when appropriate. We're not appropriate,

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Speaker 2: we won't, but he reports in.

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Speaker 1: How long do you reckon that relationship can survive?

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Speaker 2: Like?

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Speaker 1: It feels so fractious, doesn't it?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's not long?

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Speaker 1: No, no, look interested in your take on this one, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Apple has criticized a pornography app newly available on iPhones

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Speaker 1: in the European Union, saying the bloc's digital policy was

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Speaker 1: undermining consumer confidence in Apple. It's interesting because since it

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Speaker 1: first opened the app store on iPhones way back in

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Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, Apple has always controlled what apps

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Speaker 1: could be downloaded to the devices. In twenty ten, the

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Speaker 1: then CEO, Steve Jobs said that keeping pawn off the

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Speaker 1: iPhone was Apple's quote moral responsibility and was one of

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Speaker 1: the company's major motivations for acting as a gatekeeper. This

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Speaker 1: is all according to Router's but in the EU then,

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Speaker 1: Apple's gatekeeper status changed with the twenty twenty two adoption

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Speaker 1: of the Digital Markets Act or DMA, which is a

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Speaker 1: an acronym I frequently like to use which required Apple

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Speaker 1: to allow alternative app stores, and one of those stores,

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Speaker 1: called Alt Store, has begun distributing an app and here

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Speaker 1: is the point shown. It is called hot Tub, which

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Speaker 1: perhaps unsurprisingly includes pornography.

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Speaker 2: I have nothing to say. Good story shows. It's two

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Speaker 2: sides to every story. It's not just about closing down

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Speaker 2: the Apple, you know, ensuring this competition in the market.

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Speaker 2: There's two sides to every story. Michael. Thanks, there you go.

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Speaker 1: That's hot. It's hot tub, hot Tub. Sean, yep. I

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Speaker 1: enjoyed your deeply insightful take on the story. Just trying

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Speaker 1: not to laugh at this one.

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Speaker 2: Weren't you the mirth I had as you were telling

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Speaker 2: the story and I was trying to get your eye

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Speaker 2: to make you laugh. To be honest, no, I was.

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Speaker 1: I was ignoring you. I have done that to you

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Speaker 1: so many times where you were telling a story and

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Speaker 1: you're talking about like the market bottoming or something like that,

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Speaker 1: and I'm trying to make you laugh during it, and

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Speaker 1: You've dodged me, and I dodged you successfully.

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Speaker 2: So well done.

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Speaker 1: Eat it up. Next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview.

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Speaker 1: Caroline Bowler from BTC Markets is your guest and big

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Speaker 1: news Sean, brace yourself, m.

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Speaker 2: I know. The newsletter is back.

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Speaker 1: The Fear and Greed Newsletter is back today. You got me.

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Speaker 1: You got me at last year and I've been trying

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Speaker 1: to ignore you. The Fear and Green newsletter is back.

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Speaker 1: Greed newsletter, head along to Fearangreed dot com dot au

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Speaker 1: and pop your email address and it comes out every Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: It has got a bunch of good stuff in there.

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Speaker 1: It's got kind of your take on all the big

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Speaker 1: news stories of the week, so you get a bit

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Speaker 1: of opinion, a bit more context.

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Speaker 2: Had a bit of a change. This is a bit

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Speaker 2: of a change out with the newsletter. So this week

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Speaker 2: I talked about rates and Trump and stuff like that,

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Speaker 2: but we also get a bit of a piece from

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Speaker 2: Adam Langer, our colleague. Now Adam one of his roles

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00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 2: is as a coach, and so we've decided to use

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Speaker 2: that to provide some useful information on for small businesses

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00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 2: and in terms of coaching. So I actually really like

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Speaker 2: what Adam did this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah I do too, and it's worth checking out. So

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Speaker 1: sign up if you haven't already. Fear and Greed dot

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Speaker 1: com today you Thank you very much, Sean, thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the fifth of February twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: And that was fear and greed. Have a great day.