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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Summer series. Are Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and Good morning, Sean Aylmer. Morning, Michael, Good morning,

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Speaker 1: Adam Lange.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, the morning Sean.

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Speaker 1: Look today we are looking at the best international story

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Speaker 1: of twenty twenty five. We have been spoiled for choice

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Speaker 1: because the world is a big place and there's been

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Speaker 1: a heck of a lot happening over the last twelve months.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to nominate mine first up because I say

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Speaker 1: it doesn't get much bigger than Liberation Day. And the

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Speaker 1: tariff was sparked by Donald Trump, and that feels like

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Speaker 1: a long time ago, right, But it was only in

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Speaker 1: April April, the second Liberation Day, when the President announced

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Speaker 1: what were sweeping tariff some pretty much every country in

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Speaker 1: the world, from like ten percent for favored partners like

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Speaker 1: Australia through to forty nine percent for countries like Cambodia.

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Speaker 1: Markets took an absolute hammering that was huge. One day

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Speaker 1: falls five percent on Wall Street in Australia and elsewhere.

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Speaker 1: But that was just the beginning. Because China and the US,

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Speaker 1: essentially they were teetering on the brink of a full

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Speaker 1: blown trade war. Imposing these massive tariffs on each other,

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Speaker 1: but one by one, country's been negotiating deals with the US,

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Speaker 1: often tied to investments in the States or increasing spending

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Speaker 1: on defense. Markets recovered remarkably quickly, hitting record highs since then.

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Speaker 1: But but I'm going to go out on a limb

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Speaker 1: here and say this year will always be remembered for

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Speaker 1: the way one man upended global trade entirely right, and

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Speaker 1: it's all to do with tariffs.

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Speaker 3: Sean, Yes, the only thing I would say about tariffs.

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Speaker 3: I think in the short term this will be the

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Speaker 3: tariff's year. I get that. But in the long term,

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Speaker 3: bowl prediction, we will look back on Donald Trump and

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Speaker 3: his tariffs and say that was all about Europe. This

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Speaker 3: is the beginning of the Golden age for Europe. The

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Speaker 3: rushing Ukraine wars in Europe, yet the US had been

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Speaker 3: funding it. Now Europe has to pay more for it.

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Speaker 3: Leaving aside the rights and wrongs, the massive fiscal bursts

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Speaker 3: in Europe by up and spending will be incredibly good

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Speaker 3: for the region. The EU and UK is also playing

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Speaker 3: a much bigger diplomatic rule, mostly to counter Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: They're working more closely together. They're reaching out to new

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Speaker 3: parts of the world. So there was a big Central

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Speaker 3: Asia EU conference during the year. Europe always has led

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Speaker 3: and now is even further ahead. The Green revolution and

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Speaker 3: long term energy security is one of the prime issues

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Speaker 3: facing the globe. Europe is set up better than anywhere else.

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Speaker 3: There's been a surge of investment in Europe. The stock

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Speaker 3: six hundred six hundred biggest companies in Europe up close

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Speaker 3: to fifteen percent this year, better than the S and

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Speaker 3: P five hundred, certainly a lot better than the ASX

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Speaker 3: two hundred. So my bold prediction in the years to come,

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Speaker 3: we will look back and say twenty twenty five was

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Speaker 3: the beginning of the Golden Age for Europe.

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Speaker 2: Danski, Yeah, they're both good. I'm going to try and

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Speaker 2: complement both of those. China, so the growth of Chinese

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Speaker 2: influence around the globe, where as we know, it's long standing,

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Speaker 2: but Donald Trump's return to the US presidency I think

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Speaker 2: has accelerated that influence. This year, the center of geo

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Speaker 2: political gravity continued, in my view, to shift away from

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Speaker 2: the United States and towards the Indo Pacific. Now this

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Speaker 2: doesn't have to be bad for US at all. China

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Speaker 2: increased pressure on Taiwan with continued military drills, airspace incursions,

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Speaker 2: and naval exercises. Japan got involved, turbo charging dispense, defense

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Speaker 2: spending and deepening security ties with both the US and Australia.

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Speaker 2: UCUS moved from US review to full steam ahead with

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Speaker 2: submarine basis, supply chains, tech exchange and workforce workforce investments,

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Speaker 2: locking a strata deeper into this great power competition and

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Speaker 2: probably the greatest at any point since World War Two.

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Speaker 2: And right across as Asia, alliance is hardened, Defense budgets

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Speaker 2: have surged, and diplomacy has taken on a sharper edge.

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Speaker 2: And for me, that means China's increasing influence, especially in

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Speaker 2: our region, is actually reshaping priorities, investment decisions, energy, security policy,

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Speaker 2: regional trade. It feels a bit like everywhere, all at once.

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Speaker 2: And in twenty twenty five, China did not just test

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Speaker 2: the balance of power, It's forcing the world to reposition

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Speaker 2: around it.

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Speaker 3: Wow, these are three great stories. It's like, you know,

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Speaker 3: was it Hartstock, Frans Ferdinand wasn't? The reason?

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Speaker 2: Was the War one?

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Speaker 3: The ignition of World War one?

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Speaker 2: Assassination? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, one of World War two means World War one,

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Speaker 3: And it's like Tariff's is like ignited this incredible change

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Speaker 3: in the world. So how are we going to rate these.

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Speaker 1: Look, I think I think Tariff's it's probably at it.

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Speaker 1: As you said, Sean, it was such a big issue

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Speaker 1: for this year specifically, whereas China is going to be

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Speaker 1: an issue. The growing role of China is going to

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Speaker 1: continue into the future. Europe, this might just be the

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Speaker 1: beginning for Europe. So I think probably if we're looking

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Speaker 1: specifically at this year, it's got to be my story.

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Speaker 1: I mean Tariff's, it's not about me, which.

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Speaker 3: Tarffs won and then we can.

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Speaker 2: I think Europe's probably two for this, so.

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Speaker 3: It's probably China. It's a bit more of the same

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Speaker 3: with China, so maybe Europe to Asia. Three.

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Speaker 1: You guys fight amongst yourselves for the scraps. I'll just

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Speaker 1: take the gold. Thank you very much, Sean, Thanks Michael,

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Adam, Thank you Michael. Don't forget to follow

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Speaker 1: on the podcast. New episodes every day during our summer

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Speaker 1: series and regular shows are back from January twelfth. A

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Speaker 1: Mark Thompson and this is Fear and Great