1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,480 Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed the week Ahead. I'm Sean Almer, 2 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:10,160 Speaker 1: and as always I'm joined by economist Stephen Cooculist you'll 3 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: find herem at the Cook dot com, t h e 4 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: k o uk dot com and on X using the 5 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:15,720 Speaker 1: handle the Kirk. 6 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 2: Stephen. Good morning, very good morning, Sean, Eny. 7 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: A disappointing week coming up, really, given what we've had 8 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,960 Speaker 1: over the past seven days, or say, let's wrap that. First, 9 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 1: we had GDP household spending, International trade and house prices 10 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: GDP the big one. 11 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,520 Speaker 2: GDP the big one, but it was actually a small one. 12 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 2: We only had one point two percent increase in quarterly 13 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:39,559 Speaker 2: GDP growth, well under market expectations and well under the 14 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 2: implied GDP growth rate that the RBA was looking for 15 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: when they put out their forecast just a was at 16 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 2: about three weeks ago in their statement monetary policy. So 17 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 2: we've got this situation now where for two years we've 18 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 2: had annual GDP growth below two percent. This time was 19 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 2: one point three so well below two percent. And you know, 20 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 2: we know that the economy should be growing in an 21 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 2: ideal world. If we can never get equilibrium in an economy, 22 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 2: which is of course the difficult thing to achieve. It's 23 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 2: about two and a half or two and three quarter percent, 24 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 2: so we're growing at roughly half that pace. And when 25 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 2: you look at what's causing it, you know, why is 26 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 2: it so slum? I think this is the critical issue 27 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 2: that US economists were sort of trying to mull over. 28 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 2: It's not really because the government's not spending much. In fact, 29 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,559 Speaker 2: that's on the contrary, we've got this discussion about state 30 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 2: and federal governments spending too much. It's not because the 31 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 2: Aussie dollars putting a constraint on experts. No, it's not 32 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 2: the reason. It's not because the world economy yet has 33 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 2: fallen in a whole. Because these were March quarter numbers. 34 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 2: The only reason. And this comes into the question, I'm 35 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 2: sure you're going to ask about RBA. What's it mean 36 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 2: for them? It's interest rates are too tight, and so 37 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 2: the expectations after that GDP number came out last week, 38 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 2: locking in a further one hundred points of rate cuts 39 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 2: into the futures market. So by the end of this year, 40 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 2: early twenty six, we're going to have a cash eight 41 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 2: below three percent. According to the current pricing in the 42 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 2: futures market, based on that week GDP, which was complimented 43 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 2: by the weak household spending numbers which came out subsequently. 44 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 2: So the data on the economy is really sluggish. 45 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: What have we got this week? Actually, no, Before we 46 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 1: go to this week, I just want to make mention 47 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 1: of something. Stephen, Yes, Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Hasn't 48 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: that become a spectator sport Sean. 49 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 2: I don't know where to look. I don't know what 50 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:29,080 Speaker 2: to think. I don't know what to say other than 51 00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 2: as your weekend edition pointed out, the fallout between Musk 52 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 2: and Trump is getting worse by the day, and they're 53 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 2: throwing mud at each other across social media. Oh, he's 54 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 2: and Trump's in the Epstein files. Oh. The only reason 55 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 2: we are making money, Elon is because we're giving a 56 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 2: government subsidies. So it's a really, really base level fight. 57 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 1: It's not good though, I mean bringing this to the economy. 58 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: They I mean, he's the president and a Musk of course, 59 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: one is the most successful EV company, which is kind 60 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: of the way of the future. It's not good. It's 61 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:08,920 Speaker 1: just a bad look from financial markets for everyone. 62 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, and put overlay the tariff issue and just the 63 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 2: US government debt discussion that's going on, and the big 64 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 2: budget bill whatever it was called, the current it's called 65 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 2: beautiful bill, beautiful, and that's it. That's it. Look, the 66 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 2: US has got some genuine, genuine economic issues, and they're 67 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 2: difficult ones, they're bad ones. And to sort of throw 68 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 2: this when you're having a president who should be looking 69 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 2: at policy and managing the economy and Masku you should 70 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 2: be running his business, fighting over all this sort of stuff. 71 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 2: It's not good and it just engenders, you know, those 72 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 2: animal spirits that we often talk about. They're being damaged 73 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 2: by this. That sort of confidence. I can't imagine that 74 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 2: when we get the next round of consumer and business 75 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 2: confidence they're going to be all that good in Then, 76 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 2: when you're not confident, you don't invest, you don't hire, 77 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 2: and so the economy's sort of got some extra downdraft 78 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 2: from this whole impasse. I'd be polite. 79 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:02,839 Speaker 1: I've been polite, being polite. 80 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 2: Between Trump and Musk. What a disaster you mentioned it. 81 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 1: Consumer sentiment, business sentiment. We're getting more information on that 82 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: this week for Australia, at. 83 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 2: Least we do for Australia. Yes, and that's the only 84 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,039 Speaker 2: real data of note and they are of note because 85 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 2: they are both important because particularly this time around, because 86 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 2: both the consumer Sentiment survey and the NAB Business Confidence 87 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 2: measures incorporate the election result, which was a little over 88 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 2: a month ago, and they do incorporate the survey being 89 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 2: taken after the twenty May rate cut from the RBA, 90 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 2: So they'll incorporate sort of two important bits of news 91 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 2: that we're arguably impacting on business and consumer sentiment. Previously, 92 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 2: certainly the interest right one, but maybe the election was 93 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 2: to a bit. So we'll be hoping, really hoping that 94 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 2: there's a bit of an uptick in optimism from both 95 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 2: consumers and businesses because for the last what twelve months 96 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 2: or so, while things aren't horrendous, they're certainly not good 97 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 2: either in terms of how we consumers and we business 98 00:04:58,120 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 2: people are feeling about the economy. 99 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 1: Stephen, enjoy your week. 100 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 2: I will for sure thank you. 101 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 1: That was the economist Stephen Cookolis, better known as the Cook. 102 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 1: You can find him at the cook dot com and 103 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 1: follow him on excusing the handle of the Cook, I'm 104 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 1: sure I only this is fearing greed the week ahnd