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Speaker 1: As is tradition in budget week a couple of days

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Speaker 1: later on the Thursday night, usually the leader of the

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Speaker 1: Opposition delivers the budget in reply speech and that's what

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Speaker 1: happened last night Peter Dutton. And let's have a look

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Speaker 1: at that with Charles Croucher, Political Editor nine News. Charles,

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Speaker 1: good morning. From what I see, widely reported a speech

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Speaker 1: dedicated to going back to basics.

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Speaker 2: Back to basics as the message Matthew was a darker

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Speaker 2: speech than we're used to, more positional leaders, they're usually

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Speaker 2: sort of trying to paint a different picture. This was

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Speaker 2: look a lot about immigration, a lot about housing, with

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Speaker 2: no suggestion of new houses, more just freeing up existing

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Speaker 2: housing stock as we wait for construction on what you

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Speaker 2: know with the governments around the country, including in la

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Speaker 2: in Shatha, Straighta and here in Canberra, so they will

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Speaker 2: be one point two million new homes over the next

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Speaker 2: five years. What we didn't get from Peter Dutton and

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Speaker 2: what will be probably the pivotal issue of the election

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Speaker 2: is some solutions on energy. He has made it very

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Speaker 2: clear and the opposition to made it very clear if

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Speaker 2: they want to go nuclear. That was mentioned last night.

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Speaker 2: What we did hear though, was where they're going nuclear

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Speaker 2: and wellever that question is out in the electorate. There

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Speaker 2: is a big question about what the policy will look like.

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Speaker 2: So that's some of the details that we needed, all right.

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Speaker 1: Migration was one of the other big areas he focused on,

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Speaker 1: and that's you'd have to say, definitely a play to

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Speaker 1: concerns in the electorate, oh.

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Speaker 2: Without a doubt. And he's talking about removing and instantly

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Speaker 2: cutting the number of permanent migrants. Now what that does

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Speaker 2: to the overall number of migrants varies year to year

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Speaker 2: because of temporary visas and the likes, So cutting it

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Speaker 2: down about one hundred and forty thousand, it's currently about

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Speaker 2: one hundred and ninety thousands, so it's fifty thousand fewer

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Speaker 2: permanent migrants. That will do some things to housing stocks.

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Speaker 2: There was also some talk of eliminating foreign buyers for

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Speaker 2: two years. Mean, that's a really minute amount of purchasing

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Speaker 2: in the market at the moment, but that's clearly going

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Speaker 2: to be one of the folks moving forward. For the opposition,

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Speaker 2: they think a smaller Australia is the answer that the

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Speaker 2: government has to make the case as to why they

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Speaker 2: believe there through an increasing skills or necessary workers's really

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Speaker 2: important areas like age care, childcare and some of the

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Speaker 2: agricultural sectors need more migrants. This is going to be

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Speaker 2: an interesting fight moving forward because one we've heard before,

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Speaker 2: it's a great effect from opposition depends exactly now have

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Speaker 2: the coalition to that moving forward, exactly where that lands electrically,

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Speaker 2: because I think there is a challenge there not alienating

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Speaker 2: electrics with heavy number of migrants. We are still essentially

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Speaker 2: a migrant nation, but also playing up to the aspirations

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Speaker 2: of other Australians.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's interesting and I'm sure you as a

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Speaker 1: political reporter would find this fascinating that you've got the

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Speaker 1: the Liberal Party at the moment going after the tradees

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Speaker 1: and the workers, if you like, with policies that are

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Speaker 1: aimed at their thinking where they're at in the country.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels like a pivot from the norm, doesn't it.

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Speaker 2: It's reflecting what's happening in the United States though, and

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Speaker 2: then largely around the world, a more populous approach to politics,

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Speaker 2: moving away from sort of the economic arguments of the past. Look,

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Speaker 2: we'll wait and see. The elections are about the future,

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Speaker 2: though the government has laid out what they believe is

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Speaker 2: their plan for the future with their future in Australian policy.

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Speaker 2: This week in the budget the Opposition is opposing the

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Speaker 2: big chunk of that when it comes to tax incentives

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Speaker 2: for critical minerals and glean and green energy including hydrogen

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Speaker 2: into the future. So there's a big fight for the election.

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Speaker 2: Of course, the answer is, and the question will be,

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Speaker 2: and there's plenty of time to play for this to

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Speaker 2: play out, is what is the coalition's plan for the

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Speaker 2: industries and jobs and innovation that we need in the

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Speaker 2: future because at some stage there is this mountain of

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Speaker 2: debt coming. And know not if you cast blame, but

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Speaker 2: who's responsible for the mountain of debt because it has

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Speaker 2: been successive governments of successive for different parties. But we're

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Speaker 2: looking at a trillion dollars debt in the next couple

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Speaker 2: of years, twenty six billion dollars a year in interest

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Speaker 2: payments and that means you know, seventy one million dollars

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Speaker 2: a day or probably two and two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: thousand dollars at the time we've spoken.

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Speaker 1: Ye, that's right. Just finally, the future made in Australia

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Speaker 1: that you've mentioned there do you think that resonates out

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Speaker 1: in the electorate.

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Speaker 2: Well, wait and see, certainly, I think Australians want to

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Speaker 2: make things here and nowhere hasn't been felt more than

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Speaker 2: in South Australia would be the ending of the car

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Speaker 2: industry there. So you know, we can't just be somewhere.

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Speaker 2: We dig up places and somewherehere tourists come or where

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Speaker 2: where students come. We need to produce things. The question

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Speaker 2: is how do we do it when we're competing against

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Speaker 2: the places like China and the United States where there

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Speaker 2: is either a numerical advantage in terms of labor or

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Speaker 2: an economic advantage in terms of them being able to

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Speaker 2: do it far cheaper because they don't have the labor

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Speaker 2: laws that we have here. We have advantages, some win

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Speaker 2: lots of space. The question is how do we best

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Speaker 2: play to those.

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Speaker 1: All right, Charles, I know you've got to head off.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for you your insights today.

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Speaker 2: Appreciate it mate.

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Speaker 1: Thanks Charles Croucher, their political editor nine News on the

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Speaker 1: budget reply speech. One of the things he mentioned there

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Speaker 1: was the one hundred and forty thousand a year that's

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Speaker 1: where Peter Dutton wants to cut migration levels too, the

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Speaker 1: Institute of Public Affairs on that. Daniel Wild is from

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Speaker 1: the Institute. He joins me now, Daniel, good morning, good morning.

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Speaker 1: It's a relatively modest cut. Fifty thousand. Is it going

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Speaker 1: to make or break the country?

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Speaker 3: It is a modest cut. It's a step in the

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Speaker 3: right direction. We've seen a dramatic intake over the last

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Speaker 3: two years, around a million on a net basis coming

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Speaker 3: into the nation, without any meaningful plan for the school's roads,

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Speaker 3: hospital and especially the housing that's been needed to accommodate

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Speaker 3: the migration intake Adelaide has experienced just over the last

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Speaker 3: few years, since about twenty twenty, house prices have increased

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Speaker 3: by half now around nine hundred thousand dollars, which is

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Speaker 3: nearly more expensive than Melbourne. And you've also got the

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Speaker 3: rental problem. So clearly we need to have a reduction

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Speaker 3: to the intake of migration. I hope that what the

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Speaker 3: opposition has outlined last night is the beginning of a

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Speaker 3: bigger debate about migration, not the end, because you know,

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Speaker 3: I share your views that it's a meaningful reduction, but

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Speaker 3: it is relatively modest given the dramatic intake. So I

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Speaker 3: hope there's more to come.

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Speaker 1: Okay, where do students said in this international students who

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Speaker 1: come in.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's an interesting question. So students are the lion's

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Speaker 3: share of migration. What our analysis show that we released

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Speaker 3: some months ago, with around forty three percent of Adelaide's

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Speaker 3: new housing supply over the next five years would be

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Speaker 3: needed to accommodate international students. So this is having a

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Speaker 3: really big impact on housing affordability and mental affordability in

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Speaker 3: Adelaide and across the nation. And of course what we're

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Speaker 3: seeing and the practical consequences with the proposal to demolish

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Speaker 3: the Crown and Anchor that goes back one hundred and

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Speaker 3: seventy one years to put up a new tower to

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Speaker 3: house international students. So we're seeing a really big impact

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Speaker 3: not only on affordability, but the actual heritage of the

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Speaker 3: state and of the city. Of course, you know, I

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Speaker 3: don't blame the students for this. They're coming here for

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Speaker 3: a better life of better education, and I understand that.

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Speaker 3: But even the government's own migration review identified these problems.

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Speaker 3: The review that was released last year said international students,

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Speaker 3: through their contribution to population growth, place pressure on housing

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Speaker 3: and local infrastructure, and the review also identifies that the

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Speaker 3: university benefit from the students, not the broader community. So

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Speaker 3: this is the problem. What I would note is that

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Speaker 3: in the budget, the federal government said that they're going

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Speaker 3: to place a cap on international student Unfortunately, we've read

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Speaker 3: the legislation and it's not actually a cap. It's simply

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Speaker 3: giving the minister the permission to impose a cap. So unfortunately,

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Speaker 3: there's a long way to go before we rain this problem.

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Speaker 1: In all right, now, international students not benefiting the community,

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Speaker 1: as you say, but surely their presence here has a

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Speaker 1: flow on. I mean, we've had the state government here

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Speaker 1: calling it one of our biggest sectors in terms of

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Speaker 1: the money they generate through buying food, shopping, all the rest,

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Speaker 1: along with the money they spend on accommodation and staying here.

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Speaker 3: I think that reveals a luck of ambition by our

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Speaker 3: political leaders. I mean, we can't just be a hotel

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Speaker 3: room for international students. We need to be a state

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Speaker 3: and a nation that builds things and generates value like

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Speaker 3: we used to with manufacturing. I know you're talking about

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Speaker 3: that with your previous guest, with manufacturing with resources. Look,

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Speaker 3: no one, I'm not suggesting that students don't play an

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Speaker 3: important role, but we have become too dependent as a

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Speaker 3: nation on international students and too dependent on migration. Migration

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Speaker 3: has been critical to our national story and we'll be

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Speaker 3: into the future, but we've had the lazy migration lead

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Speaker 3: growth strategy that is leaving Australians behind. For example, as

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Speaker 3: you're probably aware, we've had negative per capita growth for

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Speaker 3: the last four consecutive quarters. And what that means is, yes,

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Speaker 3: more migration and more international students will make the overall

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Speaker 3: pie bigger, but the slice of the pie that each

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Speaker 3: Australian is actually now getting is getting smaller. So that

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Speaker 3: is the problem.

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Speaker 1: John Howard earlier this week called for the return of

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Speaker 1: the baby bonner, saying, well, if the government is so

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Speaker 1: keen to boost the population, which they should bring back

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Speaker 1: the baby boners. Do you agree?

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Speaker 3: I agree with that because we have had a dramatic

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Speaker 3: decline to the birth rate in Australia. There's a lot

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Speaker 3: of factors behind that. Culture factors, there's social factors and

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Speaker 3: of course the cost of doing so. Housing being one

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Speaker 3: of them. Families typically speaking, don't want to raise children

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Speaker 3: in an apartment. They want to have a detached house

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Speaker 3: of the backyard, and I think that's fair enough. No,

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Speaker 3: I think the baby bonus was a good idea, but

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Speaker 3: you've got to make sure it's affordable. And again, no

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Speaker 3: matter where the population growth is coming from, whether it's

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Speaker 3: coming from a higher domestic birth rate or whether it's

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Speaker 3: coming from overseas migration, you've still got to have the

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Speaker 3: planning in place. You've got to have the houses, the schools,

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Speaker 3: the rows, the infrastructure first before you bring in the population,

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Speaker 3: and unfortunately, political leaders on both sides of the equation

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Speaker 3: have often failed to do that.

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Speaker 1: Your release talks about that we're fourteen thousand dollars worse

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Speaker 1: off over the last eight years, which is a reflection

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Speaker 1: on both sides of politics, particularly the Coalition, because they

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Speaker 1: had the bulk of that eight years. But we seem

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Speaker 1: to be trying to get on top of that just

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Speaker 1: by increasing migration. That's the crux of your argument, isn't it.

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Speaker 3: Yes, it'll make it worse. What we have seen over

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Speaker 3: the line last few years is a strategy, an economic

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Speaker 3: strategy that transitioned from productivity growth to population growth. Productivity

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Speaker 3: growth is the only way that everybody can get better

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Speaker 3: off over the long term. Population growth, as I said,

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Speaker 3: makes the economy bigger, but the slight that you get

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Speaker 3: is getting smaller, and this has been a long run problem.

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Speaker 3: I point you to the federal government's budget, which I

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Speaker 3: find concerning because of its lack of ambition. What you

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Speaker 3: look at in the budget papers is the forecast for

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Speaker 3: how the economy is going to go, and often they're

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Speaker 3: the most optimistic set of forecasts. But even on those forecasts,

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Speaker 3: the government is saying we're only going to have economic

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Speaker 3: growth in the twos that's as good as it's going

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Speaker 3: to get. Now. If you go back to say the

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Speaker 3: Hawk here, average growth is three point five percent per year.

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Speaker 3: So look, I just think our political leaders, again on

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Speaker 3: both sides, are really lacking ambition and vision for the

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Speaker 3: future of our nation.

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Speaker 1: So what has changed then? Governments then Hawks certainly had

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Speaker 1: a political agenda a vision. Howard had the same. We

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Speaker 1: really haven't seen it in Rudd, Gillard, Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison

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Speaker 1: and dare I say, all beneasy.

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Speaker 3: Well, look, I think that's broadly right. I think Abbott

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Speaker 3: did have a vision for the future of the country.

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Speaker 3: His first budget was a good budget by and large,

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Speaker 3: but we all know what happened thereafter.

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Speaker 1: He break every promise he made in that budget.

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Speaker 3: Though there are a lot of issues yet. Look, I

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Speaker 3: think the broader thing is firstly the professionalization of politics.

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Speaker 3: We have a lot of people in politics now that

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Speaker 3: don't have a background in the real world. They haven't

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Speaker 3: worked in business, they haven't had to pay their staff,

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Speaker 3: they haven't had to you know, find raw materials to

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Speaker 3: build things, so they don't actually fully understand what it's

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Speaker 3: like to live in the real world. I think you've

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Speaker 3: also got this issue of basically the twenty four to

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Speaker 3: seven media cycle. Now. I know a lot of people

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Speaker 3: talk about that, but what you find is politics today

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Speaker 3: is very pole driven, very focus group driven, and it's

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Speaker 3: very short term trying to get tomorrow's headlines rather than

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Speaker 3: doing the hard yards. You know, whether it was Hawk

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Speaker 3: or whether it was Howard, there was a tendency to

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Speaker 3: actually talk to the nation, educate the public about the

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Speaker 3: challenges that we're having, and say, look, we are going

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Speaker 3: to have to do difficult things. Some people might not

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Speaker 3: like those things, but we need to do it for

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Speaker 3: the betterment of our nation. And I share your perspective

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Speaker 3: that it's been the better part of a decade since

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Speaker 3: we've really had people that have leveled with the public

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Speaker 3: in that way.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, Daniel, great speaking with you, Thank you for your time.

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Speaker 3: Good on ya, my pleasure.

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Speaker 1: Deputy director of the IPA, the Institute of Public Affairs

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Speaker 1: on the Well. Essentially, the budget replace speech is where

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Speaker 1: we started. Peter Dutton yesterday delivering that as is traditional

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Speaker 1: for an opposition leader, two days after the federal budget

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Speaker 1: is handed down by the nation's treasurer. And amongst the suggestions,

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Speaker 1: cutting migration is what Peter day and would do if

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Speaker 1: he is elected at the next election.