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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business News you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Australia six to plans to not increase defense spending, lessening

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Speaker 1: the chance of a tariff deal with the US. Job

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Speaker 1: vacancies rise, and yet another show of the labor market

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Speaker 1: strength and chip maker and Video once again takes the

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Speaker 1: title of the world's biggest company, plus a very unusual

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Speaker 1: twist in a takeover war in gaming and stand set

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Speaker 1: to win the rights to broadcast the EPL in Australia.

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Speaker 1: It is Friday, the twenty seventh of June twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Adam Lang.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael.

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Speaker 3: I have suited up for the occasion, just to stand

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Speaker 3: in for Sean while he heads off to Italy.

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Speaker 1: Yes he's he might be away right, But the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed well, the podcast rolls on, obviously, and the

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Speaker 1: newsletter rolls on, and I'm going to say I reckon,

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Speaker 1: this has been the best one in a long time.

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Speaker 1: So if you if you haven't already subscribed to the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed newsletter, jump onto the website Fearangreed dot

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Speaker 1: com dot Au and pop your email address in and

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Speaker 1: I'll put a link in today's show notes. It's a

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Speaker 1: great way to just get ahead of the competition in

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Speaker 1: about three or four minutes. That's all it takes to read. Anyway, Adam,

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Speaker 1: on with the shows, We've got a lot to cover.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, Australia won't change defense spending targets,

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Speaker 1: despite European nations vowing to rapidly increase expenditure under pressure

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Speaker 1: from US President Donald Trump. Now the decision could make

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Speaker 1: any negotiation for lower tariffs much tougher. This was really

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Speaker 1: all happening on the sidelines of the NATO summit in

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Speaker 1: the Netherlands, where Defense Minister Richard Miles said Australia would

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Speaker 1: decide its own spending levels to meet its own military needs.

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Speaker 1: He said defense spending will increase from two percent to

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Speaker 1: two point three percent by twenty thirty three. The risk here, Adam,

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Speaker 1: is a strong rebuke from Donald Trump, who made it

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Speaker 1: very very clear he expects allies to drastically step up

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Speaker 1: to reduce their reliance on the US.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael.

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Speaker 3: The North Atlantic Treaty organization countries of which Australia is

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Speaker 3: not a member, all agreed to increase defense spending targets

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Speaker 3: to five percent of GDP. However, Spain refused, prompting Trump

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Speaker 3: to threaten to punish the Iberian nation with a tougher

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Speaker 3: trade deal. According to AAP, Trump said, quote, you know

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Speaker 3: what we're going to do. We're negotiating with Spain on

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Speaker 3: a trade deal, and we're going to make them pay

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Speaker 3: twice as much, end of quote. Australia is seeking to

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Speaker 3: negotiate a reprieve from tariff's imposed by the US on imports.

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Speaker 3: While a general ten percent tariff is unlikely to change,

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Speaker 3: Canberra is hoping to negotiate a fifty percent levy down

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Speaker 3: on steel and aluminium. Miles did not speak directly with

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Speaker 3: Trump nor US Defense Secrety Pete Hegseth, and that was

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Speaker 3: despite intensive efforts by the government officials to tee up

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Speaker 3: a first face to face meeting of an Australian minister

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Speaker 3: with the US president.

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Speaker 1: NATO's being held in the Hague. Now, Donald Trump clearly

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Speaker 1: got his way with Europe, not with Spain, it seems,

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Speaker 1: and I mean that's a very clear indication that things

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Speaker 1: might be tough for Australia if he's been very clear

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Speaker 1: about what's going to happen. To Spain. Now a five

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Speaker 1: point statement endorsed a higher defense spending goal of five

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Speaker 1: percent by GDP of GDP by twenty thirty five. Now,

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Speaker 1: the thing is though about this, It's not only Trump's pressure,

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Speaker 1: it's also European fears that Russia poses a growing threat

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Speaker 1: to regional security. So there is significantly an element of

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Speaker 1: self interest from these countries as well. The thirty two Allies,

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Speaker 1: it's a big group. They issued a brief communicate afterwards,

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Speaker 1: and it also added that we reaffirm our ironclad commitment

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Speaker 1: to collective defense, as enshrined in Article five of the

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Speaker 1: Washington Treaty, that an attack on one is an attack

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Speaker 1: on all.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Michael, it's a strong statement. And the other story

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Speaker 3: running is the performance of NATO's Secretary General Mark Rutt,

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Speaker 3: who has.

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Speaker 2: Been fawning over Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: I think it's fair to say his latest contribution was

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Speaker 3: to liken Trump to a daddy, Trump compared to Iran

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Speaker 3: and Israel to two kids in a school yard fighting

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Speaker 3: for two or three minutes. Rutt joined in saying, quote

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Speaker 3: and then daddy has to sometimes use strong language to

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Speaker 3: get them to stop.

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Speaker 2: End of quote.

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Speaker 3: It's all a little bit embarrassing really, and overshadows the

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Speaker 3: fact that the US and Iran are now scheduled to

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Speaker 3: hold talks next week. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterrez said

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Speaker 3: he very much hopes the talks will end the conflict.

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Speaker 3: This is amazing, Michael. Within a couple of weeks there's

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Speaker 3: been bombs launched and now they're talking.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, with a very strong focus on the nuclear

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Speaker 1: side of things. But I mean, any communication, right, is

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Speaker 1: good communication in a situation like massive step, As long

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Speaker 1: as you leave the word daddy out of it, we'll

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Speaker 1: do all right. Let's take a look at local markets

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Speaker 1: from yesterday. It was a pretty flat day over all.

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Speaker 1: The S and PA X two hundred finished the day

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Speaker 1: down slightly off zero point one percent to five hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty one points. The worst performance were the tech stocks,

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Speaker 1: led by zero. The Cloud Accounting Group tumbled seven percent

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Speaker 1: on opening, then closed down five point three percent for

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Speaker 1: the day. That was in response to its four billion

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Speaker 1: dollar takeover of US Silicon Valley startup Melio.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael.

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Speaker 3: But the other big news on local markets yesterday was

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Speaker 3: a rally for lithium companies after Vanguard took a stake

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Speaker 3: in PLS formerly known as Pilbrim Minerals that then flowed

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Speaker 3: through to some of the other lithium miners, including Mineral

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Speaker 3: Resources and Liontown Resources. Lithium stocks have been sold off

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Speaker 3: recently over concerns of a global oversupply, so it was

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Speaker 3: a much better day yesterday for investors in that space.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly was, and just quickly there's an interesting potential

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Speaker 1: takeover in global markets. I mentioned this one in the

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Speaker 1: afternoon report yesterday, but it's worth revisiting just because of

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Speaker 1: the scale. If this was to go ahead, we're talking

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Speaker 1: about oil giants BP and Shell. BP shares jumped as

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Speaker 1: much as ten percent after the Wall Street Journal reported

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Speaker 1: that Royal Dutch Shell is in early stage talks to

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Speaker 1: acquire its London based rival.

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Speaker 3: This is big, It's absolutely massive, Michael, and I think

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Speaker 3: all the more topical for the neg transition that we

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Speaker 3: are so often discussing. So this is discussions between company

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Speaker 3: representatives being called active. Although a deal is far from certain.

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Speaker 3: If Shell were to acquire BP, it would be among

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Speaker 3: the largest deals in European history, creating for the first

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Speaker 3: time an oil major. They could challenge industry leaders Exonmobile

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Speaker 3: and Chevron.

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Speaker 1: Massive massive. Okay, before we go to a break, a

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Speaker 1: very quick mention of our survey, Adam, because we are

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Speaker 1: running out of time. Well not we we can't do it,

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Speaker 1: but there is limited days available to take part in

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Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed survey and being with a chance

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Speaker 1: to win the three thousand dollars luxury escapes about you.

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Speaker 1: This is basically to we want to find out more

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Speaker 1: about the Fear and Greek community, which is say, that's.

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Speaker 3: Fair, absolutely, and what this community wants to hear more

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Speaker 3: of from us less of from us.

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Speaker 2: Any good feedback will take on board.

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Speaker 1: Say, any positive feedback will take on board. The rest

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Speaker 1: will disregard.

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Speaker 2: Is all good feedback?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair. But if you want to take part,

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Speaker 1: you'll find it in today's show notes. It's also in

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Speaker 1: today's newsletter. If you scroll down to the very bottom

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Speaker 1: of the newsletter you'll see it there.

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Speaker 2: Quick Break will.

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Speaker 1: Be back in a moment with the rest of the

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Speaker 1: day's business news, Adam. Australia's jobs market showed more signs

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Speaker 1: of strength in the three months to the end of May,

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Speaker 1: with job vacancies rising two point nine percent to three

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty nine thousand, four hundred, which is a

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Speaker 1: rebound after a dip scene earlier in the year. Construction

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Speaker 1: led the way with a big jump in openings, while professional,

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Speaker 1: scientific and technical services also saw some strong gains.

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Speaker 3: Yeah and Michael, a bit of a theme change here.

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Speaker 3: The private sector drove most of the gains, but the

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Speaker 3: uptick was broad based, with eight of the eighteen industries

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Speaker 3: reporting growth. Among those to go backwards, though, were wholesale

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Speaker 3: trade and utilities, both posting double digit falls. Overall, demand

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Speaker 3: for skilled workers appears to be propping up the labor market.

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Speaker 3: It reinforces the message that labour demand remains resilient. There

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Speaker 3: is one point eight unemployed people per vacancy and that

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Speaker 3: is still well below pre COVID levels.

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Speaker 1: That'll be interested to see what you make of this one, Adam.

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Speaker 1: A corporate restructure at Australian tech giant Canvas has potentially

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Speaker 1: left hundreds of employees and former employees with unexpected tax

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Speaker 1: bills worth hundreds of thousands of dollars now. This story

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Speaker 1: that comes from the Financial Review. Like a lot of startups,

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Speaker 1: many of Canvas employees have received equity in the company

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Speaker 1: as part of their immuneration package, which wouldn't normally come

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Speaker 1: into play until, for instance, that the company actually lists.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Michael, and this one is slightly complicated and involves

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Speaker 3: the term liquidity event, but considering Canvas valued at around

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Speaker 3: US thirty seven billion dollars, it is pretty salacious. The restructure,

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Speaker 3: which was intended to prepare the company for a future

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Speaker 3: us IPO, inadvertently triggered a liquidity event that made vested

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Speaker 3: share options taxable in Australia, even though the shares haven't

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Speaker 3: yet been sold, so for some the tax bill could

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Speaker 3: be seven figures. Canvor has offered affected staff a chance

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Speaker 3: to participate in a secondary share sale this September, but

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Speaker 3: not all will be eligible and the valuation is still unclear.

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Speaker 1: Can you imagine that? Can you imagine you haven't actually

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Speaker 1: sold the share?

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Speaker 2: I think it's a nice problem to have.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yes, it is, as a former colleague of

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Speaker 1: ours used to say, a quality problem.

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Speaker 2: Quality problem.

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Speaker 1: But I mean still that is just it is amazing.

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Speaker 1: It's got a little bit of everything. That story. Now,

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Speaker 1: there is quite a twist adam in the battle for

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Speaker 1: points Bet, which Japanese group Mixy seemed to have won

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday after a shareholder vote and Sean and I

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Speaker 1: were speaking about it yesterday morning on the show Out.

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Speaker 1: After that yesterday morning, points Bet said the shareholding votes

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Speaker 1: of its other suitor Better were incorrectly that's a direct quote,

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Speaker 1: incorrectly excluded from the scheme meeting.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, bit problematic this one, Michael. Everyone was surprised that

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Speaker 3: Mixy won ninety five percent of the vote, but perhaps

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Speaker 3: given points BET's shareholding was not included, it now seems

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Speaker 3: more reasonable. Computer share who oversees the voting yesterday said

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Speaker 3: the scheme resolution was not approved by the requisite majorities

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Speaker 3: of points Bets shareholders, and this battle continues.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, gas pipeline giant APA Group will be able to

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Speaker 1: convert its bass Link power cable between Tasmania and Victoria

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Speaker 1: to a regulated asset after a rare about turn by

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Speaker 1: the National Energy Regulator.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Michael's so interesting. So contrary to a draft ruling

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Speaker 3: last December to reject APA's application to place the three

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Speaker 3: hundred and seventy kilometer underwater cable into the regulated system,

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Speaker 3: the Australian Energy Regulator has now decided that consumers would

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Speaker 3: benefit more if that switch was made. And this is

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Speaker 3: according to the Australian Financial Review. The cable is currently

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Speaker 3: Australia's only unregulated merchant interconnect to transmission line, meaning its

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Speaker 3: owner can change grid fees at will. APA had signaled

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Speaker 3: that it would have to maximize bas links profits on

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Speaker 3: the spot market starting from June thirty if its application

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Speaker 3: was rejected, and that could have potentially meant higher bills

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Speaker 3: for consumers in Victoria and Tasmania.

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Speaker 1: One more before we get to international news. STAN will

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Speaker 1: stream the next season of the English Premier League starting

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Speaker 1: in August under a complex agreement. Is your favorite kind

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Speaker 1: of agreement, isn't it, Adam? That ultimately means Optus subsidizes

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Speaker 1: a large proportion or a large portion of the broadcast rights.

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Speaker 1: Now nine Entertainment, which owns the streaming platform, STAN, is

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Speaker 1: expected to pay about sixty million dollars annually for the

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Speaker 1: next three years to broadcast the league. This is according

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Speaker 1: to a report in the Financial Review, which is part

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Speaker 1: of the Nine network itself.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Michael and a you are EPL fan.

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Speaker 1: No, I was going to try and bluff my way

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Speaker 1: through it, and then you would ask me kind of

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Speaker 1: oh yeah, which team do you support, and then they

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Speaker 1: would just be crickets. So I just thought honesty is

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Speaker 1: the best policy here, Adam, Well, you Chelsea and Manchester

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Speaker 1: City fans in this house and we will be pleased

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Speaker 1: to see it on STAN.

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Speaker 3: Optus will continue to pay forty million every year over

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Speaker 3: that time despite giving up the rights. The plan is

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Speaker 3: to transition customers in the first few months of the

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Speaker 3: new season. The move, once completed, will mark the end

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Speaker 3: of Optus Sport, a streaming service that rose to prominence

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Speaker 3: in twenty sixteen when it beat rival Foxtel to the

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Speaker 3: Premier League rights. STAN already broadcast major tennis tournaments including

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Speaker 3: Roland Garros and Wimbledon, the UEFA Champions League, as well

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Speaker 3: as Super Rugby.

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Speaker 1: Okay, turning to international news now, and how about this?

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Speaker 1: This is just staggering. And Vidia, the world's premiere chip maker,

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Speaker 1: has reset its record high and has now worth around

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Speaker 1: three point seven seven trillion US dollars or about five

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Speaker 1: point eight trillion ossie. That is a phenomenal number.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this story of Nvidia just continues to amaze me.

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Speaker 3: It's once again the biggest company on Wall Street, ahead

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Speaker 3: of Microsoft with the market cap of US three point

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Speaker 3: sixty six to seven trillion and Apple at US three trillion.

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Speaker 3: And Video's shares have rallied more than sixty percent from

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Speaker 3: an early April low, amid renewed optimism for the outlook

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Speaker 3: for artificial intelligence. In video's surge is symptomatic of the

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Speaker 3: boom on Wall Street. At the moment, the S and

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Speaker 3: P five hundred is trading at about thirty five percent

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Speaker 3: above its long term average, and that's based on earnings multiples.

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Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump is already thinking about replacing Federal

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Speaker 1: Reserve chair Jerome Powell, saying he has three or four

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Speaker 1: people in mind to succeed Powell when his turn expires

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Speaker 1: next year. Kind of get the feeling that he wouldn't

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Speaker 1: mind seeing him go earlier.

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Speaker 3: Oh my, now he's telegraphing this one pretty strongly At NATO.

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Speaker 2: Trump said, I know within three or four people.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he goes out pretty soon, fortunately, because I

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Speaker 3: think he's terrible.

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Speaker 2: End of quote.

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Speaker 3: Trump did not name his potential replacements for the Central banker,

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Speaker 3: nor did he lay out a timeline for a decision.

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Speaker 3: Powell's term as chairman ends in May next year. The

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Speaker 3: US President continued his pressure campaign on the Central Bank

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Speaker 3: chief to lower interest rates, saying, quote, he's a very

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Speaker 3: stupid person. Unquote for keeping them at their current level.

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Speaker 3: The FED didn't move on rates earlier in the week,

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Speaker 3: and I think that contributed to that particular remark.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, might have had something to do with it. Perhaps.

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Speaker 1: Now after the show, Adam, We've got an interview coming

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Speaker 1: up Sean speaking with Matt Angus, who is the head

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Speaker 1: of B to B at an Espresso, which is it's

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Speaker 1: a really interesting insight into the modern office and basically

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Speaker 1: what is required to entice people back into the office.

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Speaker 1: The kind of the days of mandates put that to

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Speaker 1: one side, right men enforcing it and actually trying to

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Speaker 1: lure people back in with the office environment, like you

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Speaker 1: catch more what does it catch more flies with?

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Speaker 2: Is it honey?

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Speaker 1: Flies with money?

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Speaker 2: Oh?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, indeed, And if you take the mandate, is

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Speaker 1: the vinegar in this case and coffee and other things

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Speaker 1: other honey?

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Speaker 3: Okay go Such a smooth metaphors chataphor.

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Speaker 1: Yeah no, no, not at all. Stick around for that one.

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Speaker 1: It is coming up next in the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au.

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Speaker 3: Thanks very much, Adam, Thank you, Michael. I might head

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Speaker 3: off for an espresso.

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Speaker 1: Seamless. That was much better than my attempt at a metaphor.

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Speaker 1: It is Friday, the twenty seventh of June twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok, and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: That was You're in great. Have a great day, m