WEBVTT - The Late Debate | 23 June 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:04.320 Welcome to the late debate. 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:08.920 Dear me, it sounds like golden is colder than an 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:12.320 impromptu meeting with your ex. And I should say filling 0:00:12.360 --> 0:00:14.960 in for me who I am filling in for James person, 0:00:15.120 --> 0:00:16.360 Happy birthday. 0:00:16.000 --> 0:00:20.320 Thank you very much, terbye, and it's great tonight by 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:23.000 forty ninth, although not according to my mother who just 0:00:23.320 --> 0:00:28.000 messaged me wishing me a happy fifty year. Fantastic kind 0:00:28.040 --> 0:00:30.560 of figure. If anyone should know, it should be her. 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:32.600 She's well, I know, but she's just getting in a 0:00:32.680 --> 0:00:36.160 year early. So so don't don't get involved in the efficiency. 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:39.320 And of course Freili joints us as always on the program, 0:00:39.600 --> 0:00:42.400 plenty to get into and discuss with the biggest story 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:44.519 in the world. Of course we'll get into all of 0:00:44.560 --> 0:00:47.400 that in a moment. We're too now for the US 0:00:47.440 --> 0:00:50.600 for Israel for a round in the papers, one state 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:54.200 is backing down on its plan to ban you from 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:56.880 having a gas hetera hooray. Will tell you where that 0:00:57.000 --> 0:00:59.840 is soon, and later in the program our Dope of 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:01.040 the Day, I'll. 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:02.200 Give you a little bit of a tip. 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:04.920 If you're going to steal a car, perhaps don't fall 0:01:04.959 --> 0:01:08.200 asleep in it and let the coppers catch you in 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:11.280 the vehicle now as we go to air tonight. The 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:15.039 latest news we have out of Israel and Iran is 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:18.040 that Israel has launched a number of attacks this evening 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:23.319 on Iran. They've included the Evan Prison. They've also hit 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:27.200 a number of other targets, including airports you can see 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:30.120 on the screen. They're a statement from the IDF, this 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:32.600 was two hours ago, saying that they've struck six regime 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:37.360 airports across western, central, and eastern Iran during runways, underground hangars, 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:41.440 refueling aircraft F fourteen, F five and AH one aircraft. 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:44.840 That destroyed aircraft were meant to stop AIF jets. The 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:48.640 AIF impaired takeoff capabilities from these airports, as well as 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:53.240 the Iranian military's ability to operate its air force from them. 0:01:53.440 --> 0:01:58.120 And a statement we have just moments ago from Israel 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:02.120 Defense Minister Israel Kat saying that the IDF is currently 0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:07.520 striking with unprecedented force. Says regime targets and governmental repression 0:02:07.600 --> 0:02:11.560 bodies in the heart of Tehran. They include the Bassis headquarters, 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:15.320 the Evan Prison for political prisoners, which is in Tehran, 0:02:15.360 --> 0:02:19.920 an area of Tehran, and regime opponents. They've hit the 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:23.839 destruction of israel klock in Palestine Square, which had been 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:28.440 there since twenty seventeen, the internal security headquarters of the 0:02:28.440 --> 0:02:33.640 Revolutionary Guards, the ideology headquarters, and other regime targets. So 0:02:33.680 --> 0:02:36.040 if there's any more to tell you, we will as 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:38.480 the night wears on. But that's the latest out of 0:02:38.600 --> 0:02:41.320 Israel and Iran, So of course no end to what 0:02:41.480 --> 0:02:43.520 is going on there, and plenty more to come, and 0:02:43.520 --> 0:02:47.520 that will be the question now is where do Iran 0:02:47.880 --> 0:02:51.120 go from here? Having now been attacked by the US 0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:53.960 in that extraordinary attack. Of course you saw yesterday one 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:58.120 hundred and twenty five US aircraft involved in that bunker 0:02:58.639 --> 0:03:05.280 busting effort, hitting three nuclear enrichment sites. So for Iran 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:09.400 they have to decide now how they react. 0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:11.440 In some way, they have to react. 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:14.400 They have to retaliate, because of course it would be 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:17.280 the end of the regime if they didn't retaliate in 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:21.320 some ways, so they have to show some sign of strength. 0:03:21.760 --> 0:03:26.160 The question will be freyer though, what exactly do they 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:31.160 hit and why? Because you've got the option perhaps of 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:33.839 getting your mates who might be in the US, who 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:39.200 terra cells, etc. To do something there or you could 0:03:39.200 --> 0:03:42.160 attack a US base in the Middle East, and there 0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:44.400 are many of them. I think we've got a map 0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:47.600 we can show you on the screen here. But if 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:50.960 they do that, the US is going to respond hammer 0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:54.480 and tolls. So they're stuck between a rock and a. 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:56.600 Hard place as to how they actually react to this. 0:03:56.760 --> 0:03:59.960 For sure, Iran definitely has to respond because the domestic 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:04.560 pressure they're under to save the regime is profound. Also, 0:04:05.000 --> 0:04:08.480 the Ayatoler is eighty six years old, he's almost at 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:12.120 the end of his life. Inherent in their ideology is 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:16.680 a glorification of martyrdom and a willingness to die for 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:18.160 the Islamic regime. 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:20.320 That's the map, by the way, on screen of all 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:24.240 the USA bases and military basis in the Middle East. 0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:27.880 So they need to do something. They want to do something. 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:31.760 The Iyetoler has consistently said, and he compromise with the 0:04:31.800 --> 0:04:34.680 West is opening the door to moral decay and will 0:04:34.760 --> 0:04:37.400 ultimately weake in Iran. So I think it's not a 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:40.680 question of whether they do something, it's about what they do. 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:43.039 As you said, they have a few options they have 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:46.440 After the head of the IIGC was assassinated by the 0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:50.040 US in twenty twenty. They did attempt a few high 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:53.760 level assassinations on Mike Pompeo as one of the US 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:57.480 officials they tried to target, but the US thwarted all 0:04:57.520 --> 0:05:00.520 of them, so I really do question them our ability 0:05:00.560 --> 0:05:04.240 to actually carry out such a high level assassination within 0:05:04.320 --> 0:05:08.120 the US. That seems less likely, although we have been 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:12.599 warned of terracells being activated, so we'll see. In terms 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:16.160 of the actions their proxies could take. Think Hamas Hezbla, 0:05:16.240 --> 0:05:20.840 the Hooties, I mean Hezblah. Half of them don't have eyes, legs. 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:23.960 After the page Or incident, they're still severely weakened. They've 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:26.960 been put on notice by Israel and by the Lebanese 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:30.880 government as well not to get involved. Ha Maas is useless. 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:34.160 They're completely caught up fighting Israel and the Hooties have 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:38.479 They can launch missiles, but against the US's air defense systems, 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:42.120 they're basically powerless, so I don't think their proxies will 0:05:42.120 --> 0:05:46.000 be much help. The last sort of option available to 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:48.279 them is to shut off the Strait of Horn Moves. 0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:52.800 That would be obviously huge for the world. Twenty percent 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:55.720 of our oil goes through there. But I don't know 0:05:55.760 --> 0:05:59.679 if that is going to have great consequences for them either. 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:03.640 Because China is reliant for half of its oil coming 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:05.960 from the Strait of Hormuz, China is a key backer 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:08.440 of Iran. Iran would not want to get them offside, 0:06:08.839 --> 0:06:12.839 and what it would also do is probably realign Saudi 0:06:12.839 --> 0:06:16.760 Arabia and other Gulf countries closer with the West because 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:19.640 they will see this as also hurting them. So when 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:22.679 you look at the options available to Iran right now, 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:26.160 basically every single one of them is a suicide mission 0:06:26.160 --> 0:06:28.680 in and of themselves, and that is kind of the 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:31.760 position the regime is now in. They have no good options. 0:06:31.800 --> 0:06:36.279 They've been completely annihilated by a country eighty times smaller 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:39.560 than them in the space of about seven days, and 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:42.719 the world overestimated how powerful they were. 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:44.440 Yeah, I think that's absolutely right. 0:06:44.880 --> 0:06:49.720 Iran is utterly, utterly, utterly friendless. Like in terms of, 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:54.200 you know, the geopolitical kid in the playground, Iran is 0:06:54.400 --> 0:06:58.040 the bully who everybody hates and who someone has now 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:01.120 finally stood up to, and they've been found to be 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:02.200 absolutely weak. 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:04.239 I think you're absolutely right. I was about saying myself 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:05.320 and you nailed it. 0:07:05.440 --> 0:07:08.120 Saying that it's actually not a matter of what the rate, 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:11.040 assuming that the regime wants to survive, I think is 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:12.400 the wrong assumption. 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:14.160 It's a matter of what. 0:07:15.640 --> 0:07:16.160 Sort of. 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:22.400 Pain and damage and suffering is the regime capable of inflicting. 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:25.200 Because this is an a scatological you know, this is 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:28.800 a doomsday cult basically that's running around. It believes in 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:32.240 a confrontation between you know, the prior and the infidels, 0:07:32.520 --> 0:07:34.800 and it wants that war. I mean, all that's been 0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:37.360 doing for its entire existence has been trying to provoke 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:41.280 that war. It's now got it, and it basically wants 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:44.640 to an excuse to unleash you know. And again there 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:48.800 is no prospect for the regime I don't think, really surviving. 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:49.360 In any meaningful way. 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:53.280 That all its proxies are screwed harmas has done the 0:07:53.440 --> 0:07:57.840 ir c G has, the Iranian military, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, 0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:00.360 all their leadership has been taken out, the head of 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:05.200 intelligence has been taken out, all their air and missile capabilities, 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:10.960 it seems pretty much have been severely crippled, their nuclear capability. 0:08:11.000 --> 0:08:13.360 If we're to believe the US, and there's no real 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:18.200 reason why you wouldn't. Has been completely destroyed, and everybody 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:22.080 hates them, including that all their neighbors and their own people. 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:25.760 I mean, this has had an Arabic leadership that rules 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:29.560 over a Persian population with the most oppressive I mean 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:32.679 the last thing Aaran did in relation to its restrictions 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:35.679 on women was just last year. It ratcheted them up. 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:39.200 It's not like it's just old fashioned. It's stone age 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:41.680 and it's staying there. It is stone age, and it 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:44.760 is trying to get further back into the primordial swamp 0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:48.160 from where these people came from. So its own neighbors 0:08:48.240 --> 0:08:50.840 will turn on it at the slightest provocation, its own 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:53.800 people will turn on it in the slightest provocation. It 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:59.520 has the two smartest and biggest military forces respectively going 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:02.160 after it in the form of Israel and the US. 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:05.040 And it's the only thing you could possibly. 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:08.360 Call an ally either the terrorist groups that it is 0:09:08.400 --> 0:09:12.280 the source of funding. So without Iran Hezbla and Amasa 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:15.200 Evan Moore weaken or Russia, which is in the middle 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:17.800 of suffering in the same way that Iran is from 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:21.000 the same types of methods, from a smarter, more agile, 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:24.560 and more technologically advanced opponent, and as a result of that, 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:28.600 Russia has no capacity to help out Iran. It's only 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:32.440 other ally, it was Syria who's as the other sads 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:35.439 just ended up in the sort of Colonel Gaddafies kind 0:09:35.480 --> 0:09:38.360 of situation, except I think they escape without this sort 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:40.559 of the bayonet up the backside? 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:45.880 So where is where is Iran? And the other thing, sorry, 0:09:45.960 --> 0:09:47.800 one other thing. They say they're going to unleash this. 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:51.200 Reign of this wave of terror in response with what 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:54.920 literally you and what I mean? All the terrorists Asunnis Isis, 0:09:55.160 --> 0:09:59.800 al Kaeder, jamais Lamia, Boko Haram, all these extremist terror 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:00.440 at work. 0:10:00.640 --> 0:10:02.880 They're all shoot is the only thing they hate more 0:10:02.920 --> 0:10:03.439 than the West? 0:10:04.160 --> 0:10:06.360 Is there? Yeah? So the only people that could use 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:08.480 are the people like the hoodies that they fund, right 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:09.320 and you mentioned there. 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:11.840 Of course, the US is that they have destroyed their 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:15.720 nuclear capabilities. It was interesting that the International Atomic Energy 0:10:15.800 --> 0:10:19.240 Agency said that there was no evidence of increased radiation 0:10:19.400 --> 0:10:20.719 at the sites that had been hit. 0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:23.840 They may well, we don't know. They may well. 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:27.960 That is, Iran have removed some equipment and capabilities from 0:10:28.040 --> 0:10:31.079 those sites before they were struck. But even if that 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:34.280 were the case, it certainly makes their job a lot 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:37.640 more difficult now to create a nuclear bomb. So the 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:40.559 question will become, do you now go health leather and 0:10:40.600 --> 0:10:43.760 destroy everything or do you basically keep them at bay? 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:45.839 I mean, this was an effort to keep them at bay. 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:48.679 You could do that at four month intervals probably and 0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:51.599 just keep going down this line general Jack Keane, of 0:10:51.679 --> 0:10:55.079 course you will see every week here on the Bolt Report. 0:10:55.280 --> 0:10:59.080 He was on Fox News overnight US time about one 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:04.480 pm today Australian time, talking about how Iran may react 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:07.800 and what implication that might have for regime change. 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:08.320 Take a look. 0:11:09.360 --> 0:11:12.199 They're not easy options to deal with, and certainly the 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:15.960 regime survival may very well depend on the option they select. 0:11:16.559 --> 0:11:19.319 So I think that the first option is he'd look 0:11:19.400 --> 0:11:25.240 at would be a symbolic strike and done for political 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:30.319 reasons domestic audience, to convince people that they are there 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:37.120 is some retribution, they're taking action, and therefore hopefully avoid 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:42.400 being politically weakened internally where they would be susceptible to 0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:48.679 an overthrow, likely by hardliners who would be actually more 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:51.360 hardline than the Iottal, which is kind of hard to 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:54.000 get your head around because the iototal is about as 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:57.880 hardline diabolical as you can find. But that would be one. 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:02.360 Let's bring in yer Old Steinberg, Professor of Politics at 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:07.240 Barolin University in Israel. Professor, thank you for joining us. 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:11.640 So the question now of a regime change, and the 0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:15.319 point that General Kane raises there is that if you 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:18.600 do change the regime, you could end up with something 0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:19.680 even worse. 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:20.440 What's your tech. 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:25.000 Well, first of all, we're in new, uncharted territory. This 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:27.960 regime has been in charge of Iran for over forty 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:30.680 five years. It's been a regime of hell, a regime 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:33.800 of terror. They built this ring of fire that said arc. 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:37.360 Your guests before talked about that. That's all gone now 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:39.199 and they really don't know what to do. It's hard 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:40.720 to predict where they're going to go or how they're 0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:43.120 going to react. If they are willing to risk the 0:12:43.200 --> 0:12:47.120 regime completely, they may lash out, but there are alternatives. 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:50.160 I'm less pessimistic than the way you put it, in 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:50.560 the way a. 0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:52.640 Lot of people do, because that's really if you say 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:54.960 that there's a chance of a worse regime coming up, 0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:57.640 you do nothing, and then you don't open up the 0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:00.839 opportunity for a much better system, a system that has 0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:02.120 some degree of freedom. 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:04.760 Iran as a different country than we're used to dealing 0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:07.280 with in the Arab at least they're not Arabs. They 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:10.320 do have something called civil society. They have protest movements. 0:13:10.600 --> 0:13:13.679 Those protest movements brought tenser even hundreds of thousands of 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:16.760 people out in the streets every few years, every time 0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:21.280 the regime steals an election, every time they very visibly harassed, 0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:24.360 and worse the harass, they mistreat and they execute women. 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:27.439 So you see that there's a for a long time 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:31.640 been building an anti regime group with any ran large 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:35.080 population that wants to see them gone. How that translates 0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:38.880 into a new and different political process is difficult to predict. 0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:42.360 The overthrow of the Shah was you could see towards 0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:44.520 the end of his regime that it was fading that 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:48.000 he and his regime didn't have the power to maintain 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:52.560 their ability to stay in office. But nobody predicted, at 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:54.480 least nobody that I know, predicted that has become a 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:58.920 radical Islamic, fanatic, jihadrist regime that we saw that would 0:13:58.920 --> 0:14:01.280 spend all this money trying to get nuclear weapons and 0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:04.840 build thousands of missiles and continually attack a zerone threat 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:08.080 and to attack the United States. So where this goes 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:10.240 from here is very hard to predict. But I think 0:14:10.600 --> 0:14:13.920 my general approach to these sorts of situations is let's 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:16.240 see what we can do, and mainly what the Iranian 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:19.480 people can do to rid themselves of this very horrible 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:23.400 group of leaders, and let's try to develop a situation 0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:25.880 to help those people to come up with something that's better. 0:14:26.200 --> 0:14:29.040 We may be seeing something similar that's happening in Syria 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:31.960 that may be a better example. Libya, of course, is 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:33.920 a worse example, at least not a good example. 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:37.920 Hey, this is Fraya, thank you so much for joining us. 0:14:38.480 --> 0:14:41.120 We just saw Iran's foreign minister go in for a 0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:44.000 meeting with Putin in the last couple of hours, and 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.960 the Kremlin have said essentially that they'll provide Iran with 0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:52.240 support as they need. It very vague about exactly what 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:56.840 Russia will do to support Iran. Clearly, Iran doesn't look 0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:59.840 like they're winning this war, So how do you think 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:03.440 Russia is going to respond and what kind of support 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:06.920 do you think Russia will be providing Iran other than 0:15:07.160 --> 0:15:10.040 just condemnations of Israel and America. 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:14.360 Well, I'll start with a flipping comment that Russia and 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:18.880 Putin could easily provide asylum for the regime the foreign 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:22.360 minister the I Toola, as he did for the Syrian 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:28.200 Prasad and his entourage not too long ago. That's a possibility. 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:31.000 But Russia really is a very weak power right now, 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:33.840 and you discussed that earlier on the panel. They really 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:35.600 don't have a lot to be able to offer. They're 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:38.000 up to their ears. They can't win in Ukraine. They 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:39.920 thought they'd have a walk off in Ukraine a couple 0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:42.840 of years ago when they invaded. They're using Iranian weapons. 0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:45.960 They're one of their main weapons that they use is 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:48.160 to tack with the Iranian made drones. That means they 0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:50.800 can't even make their own drones, and the Iranian drones 0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:54.720 are being shot down by the Israelis, and that capability, 0:15:54.760 --> 0:15:57.480 that technology will be transferred to Ukraine as well. It 0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:00.400 will be easier for Ukraine to shoot down Russian drones 0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:02.960 and other equipment. So there's very little Russian offer. They 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:05.280 don't have money to offer, really, they don't have any 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:08.360 kind of political framework they can veto resolutions in the 0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:10.800 UN big deal that's not going to help save the 0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:15.040 regime or prevent further attacks. We've got a situation now 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:18.640 where the Israeli Air Force is flying at will over 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:22.120 all of Iran, not just the western part closer to Israel, 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:23.440 but also the eastern part. 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:24.720 It's like a duck shoot. 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:28.480 They're knocking off, piece by piece all of the military assets, 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:32.320 all of security assets the Uranians have. So going to 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:35.240 Russia is more of a symbolic act. Well, I can't 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:37.760 go anyplace else nobody else wants us. I'll go to 0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:40.280 Russia and I'll pretend like it was twenty years ago, 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:44.360 and then the Allies could get together. They have the 0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:47.440 Americans supporting the Israelis, and you have Russia and maybe 0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:49.200 China supporting the Arab. 0:16:49.040 --> 0:16:50.280 States or in this case Iran. 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:52.640 That's where we are. But I don't think it's anything 0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:53.480 more than symbolic. 0:16:54.680 --> 0:16:58.080 Gerald Joe here, thank you also for joining US. I 0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:02.360 wonder if, obviously that much desirable resolution to this would 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:06.360 be regime changed from the bottom up, where a more benign, 0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:12.240 more pro democratic liberal authority took the place of the 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:15.359 eye tooler and the president. We saw in two thousand 0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:17.720 and nine the Green Revolution in Iran that sort of 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:22.879 presaged the Arab spring elsewhere, and yet those movements often 0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:27.240 started with students, with democrats, with liberally minded young people, 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:31.000 and were very quickly overrun by extremists, by ISIS and 0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:36.000 ISIS linked militants. That's obviously the fear that we heard 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:39.199 voice previously by Jack Keane. What do you think, how 0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:43.520 can the local movements in Iran prevent that power flowing 0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:48.000 to whoever is prepared to use it most extremely Before 0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:49.040 we get to that, there's. 0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:51.920 What I say is probably a more likely, unfortunately scenario, 0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:54.320 and that is the regime holds on by its fingernails. 0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:58.320 It holds on through greater repression, and it continues as 0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:00.840 war of attrition. Of sending a missile or two over 0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:03.680 to Israel every couple of maybe once or twice a day, 0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.399 which sends israeli Is running into shelters, doesn't do very 0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:09.240 much damage, if any, today, but they continue to have 0:18:09.440 --> 0:18:13.520 this ability of threatening of terror, and that also perhaps 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:17.720 using their terror cells abroad, attacking soft targets abroad, maybe 0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:20.200 part of this war of attrition. So I'm more concerned 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:23.600 about the regime hanging on and trying to at least 0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:27.480 rehabilitate itself by showing that it can strike out as 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:30.480 opposed to a regime change, which were obviously much better 0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:34.000 for the Iranian people for the region. I think what 0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:38.240 the outside rule can do some to support the Iranian dissonance, 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:41.119 and they really hasn't done enough. I think during the 0:18:41.200 --> 0:18:44.240 two thousand and nine period you mentioned, the American government 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:47.080 did not really offer very much. The West, the freedom 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:50.160 loving democratic countries in the West, didn't really do much 0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:53.000 more than verbal support for the Iranian dissidents who are 0:18:53.000 --> 0:18:54.840 out there trying to overthrow the regime and get their 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:55.440 freedom back. 0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:56.639 That has to change. 0:18:56.680 --> 0:18:58.440 There has to be some sort of a plan, I 0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:02.119 would say the discussion among Western democracies that have a 0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:04.359 little bit of a backbone, you're going to have to 0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:06.360 work with Trump. You don't like Trump, that's too bad, 0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:08.840 I'm not saying it to you. But governments, including the 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:12.399 Australian government that's the only show in town Europe clearly 0:19:12.520 --> 0:19:14.440 is incapable of doing anything, and they'd have to do 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:17.200 a lot of changes to become involved. And there it 0:19:17.320 --> 0:19:20.480 has to be done thoughtful, carefully, because too much overt 0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:25.240 external help it delegitimizes the internal forces against the regime. 0:19:25.600 --> 0:19:27.879 So it's got to be a very very careful balance 0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:31.760 walking across this bridge. I think it doesn't make too 0:19:31.840 --> 0:19:33.520 much sense to try to predict how that's going to go, 0:19:34.000 --> 0:19:36.800 just like nobody can predict the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, 0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:41.119 and what's happened in other parts of the world. Libya, 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:43.960 all those things. We had the Arab Spring Libya over 0:19:44.040 --> 0:19:46.399 through Kadafi and it's a total chaos. Most of the 0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:48.160 other as you said, most of the other Apps Spring 0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:50.639 movements were squashed by the powers that. 0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:55.560 Be, by the more regime based. 0:19:56.760 --> 0:20:00.119 Tyrants that wanted to prevent any kind of change in 0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:03.359 the power of the elites control of these countries. And 0:20:03.480 --> 0:20:05.160 that might be the case in the round, So it's 0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:06.080 going to be very difficult. 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:09.240 Gerald Steinberg, thank you so much for joining us tonight 0:20:09.280 --> 0:20:11.359 and thank you for your instruits. It has been excellent 0:20:11.440 --> 0:20:14.600 to have you Professor of politics at Bailan University. 0:20:14.880 --> 0:20:15.720 Of course, when we talk. 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:18.880 About regime changer, I think he's right that the only 0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:22.040 way you can achieve genuine regime change is if it 0:20:22.200 --> 0:20:26.040 comes from the Iranian people. We've seen so many times 0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:28.840 what has happened when the US in particular is going 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:30.960 to say the West, but led by the US, IS 0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:34.480 has marched into the Middle East and tried to tell 0:20:34.520 --> 0:20:37.160 them how they should run their countries, and it doesn't work. 0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:41.200 This has to come from the Iranian people. What is 0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:45.240 interesting to see though, was overnight a some quite large 0:20:45.359 --> 0:20:49.879 rallies around in support of the regime. And I wonder 0:20:49.920 --> 0:20:53.359 how much of this isn't necessarily people who really support 0:20:53.480 --> 0:20:57.360 the regime. But even if they don't support the regime, 0:20:57.800 --> 0:21:00.440 they don't like their country being bombed, they don't like 0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:04.040 being told what to do, and for some reason or another, 0:21:04.480 --> 0:21:07.520 in a time of crisis, they will at least back 0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:10.399 what is in front of them, rather than saying someone 0:21:10.480 --> 0:21:12.800 else can come in and take John. You can see 0:21:13.040 --> 0:21:15.920 pictures on the screen here of some of these protests overnight. 0:21:16.119 --> 0:21:18.159 So how much of a problem do you think is 0:21:18.200 --> 0:21:20.879 it freyer that there could be people in the Middle 0:21:21.080 --> 0:21:22.639 as it were, who. 0:21:22.560 --> 0:21:25.560 Are straying more to the side of the regime after. 0:21:25.440 --> 0:21:29.640 This, Well, there will definitely be some in Iran who say, 0:21:29.760 --> 0:21:32.040 we don't like the regime, but we also don't like 0:21:32.200 --> 0:21:37.359 regime change through bombs. This is more civilian death, more casualties. Also, 0:21:37.480 --> 0:21:40.560