WEBVTT - ‘Devastating’: Why the Liberals are preferencing One Nation

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>Under Peter Dutton's leadership, the Coalition has placed One Nation

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<v Speaker 1>candidate second on scores of how to Vote cards across

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<v Speaker 1>the country. The decision goes against decades of principled support

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<v Speaker 1>within the Liberal Party to oppose One Nation's prejudice and racism.

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<v Speaker 1>It signals a shift not just in strategy, but in

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<v Speaker 1>what the Liberals stand for today. National correspondent for the

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<v Speaker 1>Saturday Paper, Mike Secam on the preference steal between One

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<v Speaker 1>Nation and the Liberal Party and how it could backfire.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Wednesday, April thirty, So I wanted to ask what

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<v Speaker 1>your first thought was when you heard that the Liberal

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<v Speaker 1>Party and One Nation had done a deal to preference

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<v Speaker 1>each other on their how to vote Cuz what was

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<v Speaker 1>your first thought?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I thought it was pretty extraordinary. Actually, Coalition voters

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<v Speaker 2>are being told to put One Nation second in more

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<v Speaker 2>than fifty seats across the country and to rank them

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<v Speaker 2>above Labor in one hundred and thirty nine seats. As

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<v Speaker 2>far as I know, this is unprecedented. These two parties

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<v Speaker 2>have been feuding, I guess you would say, for almost

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<v Speaker 2>thirty years, ever since Pauline Hansen was kicked out of

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<v Speaker 2>the Liberal Party way back in nineteen ninety six. So

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<v Speaker 2>you know, One Nation and the Coalition have been bitter rivals,

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<v Speaker 2>I think you would say ever since then, because One

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<v Speaker 2>Nation has done its best to peel voters off the

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<v Speaker 2>right wing of the Coalition, particularly in Queensland. But clearly

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<v Speaker 2>this is no longer the case. They're swapping preferences and

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<v Speaker 2>according to Pauline Hansen's chief of staff James Ashby in

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<v Speaker 2>an interview last week, it's all about quote saving Peter Dutton.

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<v Speaker 1>Unquote saving Peter Dutton from.

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<v Speaker 2>What well, from losing the election and maybe even his

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<v Speaker 2>own seat. You know, at the start of the year,

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<v Speaker 2>Dutton and the Coalition were polling very strongly. People were

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<v Speaker 2>starting to think they might actually you know, unseat a

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<v Speaker 2>one term labor government. But over the course of the

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<v Speaker 2>campaign the wheels have really fallen off and the Albanesi

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<v Speaker 2>government has now odds on to be returned, either in

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<v Speaker 2>as a minority government or maybe even in majority. Meanwhile,

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<v Speaker 2>Peter Dutton's personal approval is tanking. You know. Bear in

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<v Speaker 2>mind he only holds his seat Dixon on the queens

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<v Speaker 2>Ane Sunshine Coast by about one point seven percent.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, what happened was in the preference preferences, and it's

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<v Speaker 3>only a recommendation. I must tell you listeners.

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<v Speaker 2>That, according to Hanson herself, this preference deal came about

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<v Speaker 2>because Clive Palmer had put Teal candidates above the Coalition

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<v Speaker 2>in some.

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<v Speaker 3>Seats, and he's supposed to be a conservative his preferencing

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<v Speaker 3>the Teals and going to labor before the coalition.

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<v Speaker 2>So she decided that One Nation needed to act.

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<v Speaker 3>That's why we changed our preferences in eleven seats and

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<v Speaker 3>we've put him by coalition now.

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<v Speaker 2>Frankly, it was also a bit of a stunt, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>because it focused attention on Hanson and One Nation, which

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<v Speaker 2>you know they desperately need.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So Mike tell me, though, what this arrangement looks

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<v Speaker 1>like in practice. If we were to take Peter Dutton's

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<v Speaker 1>seat in Brisbane, for example, how does the deal work.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, right up until pre polling started, which was last Tuesday,

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<v Speaker 2>One Nation had its how to vote cards out there

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<v Speaker 2>telling voters to put Peter Dutton fourth in the seat

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<v Speaker 2>of Dixon. Then just before pre polling, the party suddenly

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<v Speaker 2>issued knew how to vote cards elevating Dutton to second place,

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<v Speaker 2>and in return, the Liberals in a bunch of seats,

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<v Speaker 2>including Dutton's, have put One Nation in third place just

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<v Speaker 2>after Family First.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell me a bit more about Family First, Mike, and

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<v Speaker 1>I suppose the significance of the coalition preferencing them right well.

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<v Speaker 2>In almost all the seats where it has not placed

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<v Speaker 2>One Nation second, the coalition has endorsed Family First for

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<v Speaker 2>the second spot. Someone I was speaking to about this

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<v Speaker 2>described Family First as quote, one nation with Bibles unquote.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a religious based party, very much in the mold

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<v Speaker 2>of the sort of religious right in America. It's anti gay,

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<v Speaker 2>anti trans, anti abortion, anti euthanasia, anti surrogacy. It opposes

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<v Speaker 2>renewable energy and the Paris Court on climate change. It

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<v Speaker 2>opposes multiculturalism. It wants an end to Muslim immigration to Australia.

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<v Speaker 2>It opposes tighter gun laws. It advocates for radically increased

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<v Speaker 2>military spending. It's not much different from One Nation, frankly,

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<v Speaker 2>and Family First is running ninety two candidates in the

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<v Speaker 2>Lower House and two Senate candidates in Queensland, New South Wales,

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<v Speaker 2>Victoria and South Australia. So anyway, it's second on Dutton Seed.

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<v Speaker 2>In Dixon, it's also second on the ticket of the

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<v Speaker 2>Liberal's deputy leader, Susan Lee, who very much like her leader,

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<v Speaker 2>put Family First in second spot, One Nation in third.

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<v Speaker 2>The Challow treasurer Angus Taylor put Family First second, a

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<v Speaker 2>Libertarian can at third, and One Nation fourth. So variations

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<v Speaker 2>on this theme have been repeated all across the country.

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<v Speaker 2>Only in a handful of seats where they're trying to

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<v Speaker 2>win back very moderate constituencies. Have they not put these

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<v Speaker 2>two right wing parties at the top of the ticket.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So these deals have been done, Mike, with both

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<v Speaker 1>Family First and One Nation to preference each other in

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<v Speaker 1>various ways. But even though there might seem to be

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<v Speaker 1>some alignment in the values of some of these parties,

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<v Speaker 1>One Nation and the Liberals have been at war for decades,

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<v Speaker 1>as you said earlier. So tell me more about that

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<v Speaker 1>and how they fell out in the first place.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we go all the way back to the nineteen

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<v Speaker 2>ninety six election John Howard versus Paul Keating. Pauline Hansen

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<v Speaker 2>was at that stage the endorsed Liberal candidate in the

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<v Speaker 2>Western Brisbane seat of Oxley out near Ipswich, but she'd

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<v Speaker 2>started causing problems for the party. She kept going off script.

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<v Speaker 2>She had twice been formally warned about expressing her I

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<v Speaker 2>think you would call them extreme prejudices against Indigenous Australians

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<v Speaker 2>and as migrants. And then came the third and final straw.

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<v Speaker 2>She gave a newspaper interview where she attacked welfare payments

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<v Speaker 2>to Indigenous people and also to Chinese and other migrants.

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<v Speaker 2>And the Queens and State Director of the Liberal Party

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<v Speaker 2>was Jim Barron, and just three days out from the election,

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<v Speaker 2>he decided enough was enough and he called her in

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<v Speaker 2>and told her he was disindorsing her. I spoke to

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<v Speaker 2>him about this and he said that the conversation wins

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<v Speaker 2>something along these lines. He said, you're just refusing to

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<v Speaker 2>play along. You're not behaving as a Liberal candidate. You're

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<v Speaker 2>running against our policies, and she replied pretty much, bring

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<v Speaker 2>it on. It didn't seem like a very consequential decision

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<v Speaker 2>at that point because the seat that she was contesting, Oxley,

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<v Speaker 2>the Liberals didn't really expect to win anyway. It was

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<v Speaker 2>one of the safest labor electorates in the country. But

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<v Speaker 2>to everyone's surprise, Hanson won six.

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<v Speaker 4>Weeks ago, hardly anyone had ever heard of Pauline Hanson.

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<v Speaker 4>Now she's the name in just about every radio bulletin

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<v Speaker 4>every television newscast, a newspaper. No one can recall anything

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<v Speaker 4>like it. She is a phenomenon.

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<v Speaker 2>And then in September that year ninety six, she gave

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<v Speaker 2>her infamous first speech in Parliament saying that Australia was

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<v Speaker 2>in danger of being swamped by Asians.

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<v Speaker 5>It is refreshing to be able to express my views

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<v Speaker 5>without having to tow a party line. It has got

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<v Speaker 5>me into trouble on the odd occasion, but I am

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<v Speaker 5>not going to stop saying what I think.

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<v Speaker 2>And then she set up her own party, One Nation, okay.

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<v Speaker 1>And so once Pauline Hansen got in, Mike, how did

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<v Speaker 1>her old party? How did the Liberal Party treat her? Well?

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<v Speaker 2>They have ever since largely kept their distance. And so

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<v Speaker 2>in the nineteen ninety eight and two thousand and one elections,

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<v Speaker 2>One Nation candidates were placed last on the Liberal how

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<v Speaker 2>to Vote cards. But you know there was internal debate

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<v Speaker 2>about it. The issue has reared its head at various

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<v Speaker 2>points since. In twenty seventeen, for example, the Libs in

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<v Speaker 2>Western Australia decided they would preference one day ahead of

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<v Speaker 2>the nationals. If you can believe it, John Howard, you know, ever,

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<v Speaker 2>the political Opportunist came out and supported that, saying, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>one nation has changed. Of course it really hadn't as

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<v Speaker 2>recently as twenty nineteen. It came up again. At that

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<v Speaker 2>time there were media revelations about One Nation's links to

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<v Speaker 2>the US gun lobby. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, among

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<v Speaker 2>others on the parties right argued they should still be

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<v Speaker 2>preferenced ahead of Labor, but Scott Morrison eventually made a

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<v Speaker 2>big show of ordering Labor to be placed above One Nation.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's been the history, and then along came Peter

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<v Speaker 2>Dutton and things have changed.

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<v Speaker 1>After the break how the Liberal Party has shifted.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>Mike, you've been speaking to Liberal Party elders, people who

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<v Speaker 1>were instrumental in pushing Pauline Hanson out of the party

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<v Speaker 1>in the first place. Now we're in a position where

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<v Speaker 1>the Liberals are preferencing her party One Nation. So how

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<v Speaker 1>are these people that you're talking to reacting to that?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Jim Barron, the former state director who actually checked

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<v Speaker 2>her out, told me he was appalled, and I'll quote

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<v Speaker 2>him because he was very strong. He said, all these

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<v Speaker 2>years later, the Liberal Party has embraced the person who

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<v Speaker 2>at once excommunicated. That's what he told me. He went

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<v Speaker 2>on to say, it's devastating, and I think it says

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<v Speaker 2>more about the Liberal Party than it does about One Nation.

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<v Speaker 2>Its radical, hard line racist policies used to be at

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<v Speaker 2>the fringe of politics. Now they no longer live on

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<v Speaker 2>the fringe. The Liberal Party has pretty much normalized a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of what Hanson was going on about.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so pretty strong stuff, then, Mike.

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<v Speaker 2>Very very strong stuff, and he's right. This is a

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<v Speaker 2>slap in the face for those who historically fought to

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<v Speaker 2>distance the Coalition from Hansonism. Ron Boswell, for example, was

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<v Speaker 2>a national senator who represented Queensland for more than thirty years.

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<v Speaker 2>In his valedictory speech when he left Parliament about a

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<v Speaker 2>decade ago, he actually said that he had, quoting again,

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<v Speaker 2>risked everything to stand up against Paulin Hanson's aggressive, narrow

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<v Speaker 2>view of Australia. He said it was the greatest thing

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<v Speaker 2>he'd done in his entire thirty year career. When I

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<v Speaker 2>contacted Boswell, he declined to comment directly on the coalition's

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<v Speaker 2>preference decision at this election, but he did point out

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<v Speaker 2>that previously he had threatened not to stand again if

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<v Speaker 2>the Coalition preferenced one Nation, So that's how strongly he

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<v Speaker 2>felt about it.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay. So given that, then, Mike, what does this deal

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<v Speaker 1>say to you about the current Liberal Party and how

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<v Speaker 1>its ideology is shifting under Dutton?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I would argue it's been shifting even before Dutton.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, the Libs have been drifting right woods ever

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<v Speaker 2>since John Howard. There was something of a purge of

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<v Speaker 2>the moderates under him. Then, of course we had Tony Abbott,

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<v Speaker 2>hard man of the right, who took the party arguably

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<v Speaker 2>even further to the right. And Peter Dutton is very

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<v Speaker 2>much a creature of the Queensland Liberal National Party, which

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<v Speaker 2>is very conservative. He's part of the party's hard right.

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<v Speaker 2>Back in twenty seventeen, Peter Dutton said of Pauline Hanson,

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<v Speaker 2>she doesn't deliver on it, but she says a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of things that people want to hear. So some of

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<v Speaker 2>Dutton's positioning on matters of race, migration, Islam, cultural issues

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<v Speaker 2>in general, his views are not a million miles from Hanson's. Frankly, okay.

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<v Speaker 1>So to come back to the preference deal, then, how

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<v Speaker 1>much of an impact do you think that that is

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<v Speaker 1>actually likely to have Mike on how people ultimately decide

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<v Speaker 1>to vote.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, it's hard to determine the extent to which voters

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<v Speaker 2>will be influenced by how to vote cards. After all,

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<v Speaker 2>they're only the party's recommendation of how you should vote.

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<v Speaker 2>You don't have to follow it. And a lot less

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<v Speaker 2>people use how to vote cards these days than they

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<v Speaker 2>did in the past. Back in the nineteen eighties and

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<v Speaker 2>the early nineteen nineties, about sixty percent of people would

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<v Speaker 2>follow the how to vote card. These days, it's only

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<v Speaker 2>about one in three. According to Professor In McAllister, who

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<v Speaker 2>I spoke to, he's Distinguished Professor of Political Science at

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<v Speaker 2>the ANU, and he says that people are not only

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<v Speaker 2>less likely to follow how to vote cards, they're also

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<v Speaker 2>much more likely to vote tactically. And he gave me

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<v Speaker 2>an example citing the Teal wave at the last election.

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<v Speaker 2>He said that a huge number of people, almost half

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<v Speaker 2>of those who voted for the Teals, were voting tactically.

0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:52.400
<v Speaker 2>They were former Greens and Labor voters who voted Teal

0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:55.720
<v Speaker 2>essentially to get the sitting liberal out. They weren't disaffected

0:12:55.760 --> 0:12:58.880
<v Speaker 2>liberal voters, and this adds to other evidence from past

0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:03.560
<v Speaker 2>elections that suggest progressively inclined voters are more disciplined and

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<v Speaker 2>tactical than right wing voters. So between eighty and eighty

0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:10.439
<v Speaker 2>five percent of those who vote number one for the Greens,

0:13:10.960 --> 0:13:13.880
<v Speaker 2>those preferences eventually flow back to Labor, even if they

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<v Speaker 2>pass through other left of center candidates en route. But

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<v Speaker 2>only about sixty percent of one nation preferences come back

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<v Speaker 2>to the Coalition. When I spoke to the ABC's election

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<v Speaker 2>analyst Anthony Green about this, he said that the concern

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<v Speaker 2>for the Coalition has always been when the Coalition loses

0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.640
<v Speaker 2>votes to these right wing parties, they tend to wander off.

0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:35.560
<v Speaker 2>These are his words. They tend to wander off all

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<v Speaker 2>around the ballot paper. They don't automatically come back, and

0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:42.920
<v Speaker 2>if history is any guide, the overwhelming majority of Green's

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<v Speaker 2>preferences and Teal voters preferences will ultimately flow back to Labor.

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<v Speaker 2>So the big question in this election campaign is whether

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<v Speaker 2>the embrace by Dutton and the Opposition of One Nation

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<v Speaker 2>and Family First will bring them a similar benefit, or

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<v Speaker 2>given their very divisive policies, will it simply drive away

0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:07.840
<v Speaker 2>more votes than it attracts. All I can say is

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<v Speaker 2>we'll know pretty soon.

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<v Speaker 1>Indeed it's not well, Mike, Thank you so much for

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<v Speaker 1>your time.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks a lot.

0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:33.680
<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, Labor has announced it will

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<v Speaker 1>fund some of its election promises by raising visa fees

0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:40.920
<v Speaker 1>for international students. Finance Minister Katie Gallahas says the fee

0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:44.360
<v Speaker 1>hike only amounts to a small rise, up from sixteen

0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:48.000
<v Speaker 1>hundred dollars to two thousand. Meanwhile, when asked about the

0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 1>costings for the coalitions election promises, Opposition leader Peter Dutton

0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:54.880
<v Speaker 1>said they'll be provided in due course, but says they

0:14:54.920 --> 0:15:00.960
<v Speaker 1>have been properly funded and prominent indigenous leaders have accused

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<v Speaker 1>politicians of fueling division over Welcome to Country ceremonies following

0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:09.560
<v Speaker 1>Peter Dutton's comments that the ceremonies were overused. Former Liberal

0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:13.200
<v Speaker 1>minister Ken Wyatt says Welcome to Country ceremonies are not political,

0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:16.680
<v Speaker 1>and co chair of the Ularoo Dialogue Pat Anderson says

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<v Speaker 1>the ceremonies are not about welcoming people to Australia, but

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<v Speaker 1>to cultures and lands. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening.