WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 19 January 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:05.080 From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray. 0:00:04.680 --> 0:00:08.760 Lived everyone coming into the Manca first lead. That is 0:00:08.800 --> 0:00:10.680 an amazing culinary idea. 0:00:10.680 --> 0:00:13.039 Whoever came up with it, give me six of them. Thanks. 0:00:13.160 --> 0:00:14.840 If you're raising money, you can do it for whatever 0:00:14.880 --> 0:00:18.239 group and I'll pay twice at Bunning's second League. Gold Coast, 0:00:18.280 --> 0:00:20.439 most livable and wonderful place in the world, no question. 0:00:20.520 --> 0:00:20.919 All right. 0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:24.240 Big breaking news is that the ceasefire has come into 0:00:24.320 --> 0:00:28.240 effect now after we finally knew the names the three 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:29.960 people who are going to be the first to be 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:33.040 released by Hamas. Now as we speak, the Israeli Foreign 0:00:33.120 --> 0:00:35.960 Minister is addressing the media. If we can go to 0:00:36.000 --> 0:00:39.120 that in the moment, we obviously will. The first is 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:42.600 a twenty eight year old British Israeli who was taken 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:45.199 as part of October the seventh. 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:47.720 The second Rommi. Sorry. The first is Emily. 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:49.559 The second is romy She's a twenty four year old 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:52.760 who was abducted from the music festival all those many 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:55.920 and too many months ago. And Dorian, who was thirty 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:59.440 one and HERMAS militants took her on October the seventh. 0:00:59.480 --> 0:01:01.600 They will be the first three that will be released 0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:03.040 because there has. 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:05.559 Been a bit of movement in the past hour. 0:01:06.120 --> 0:01:08.920 In fact, let's just quickly jump outver to what is 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:11.600 happening with our colleagues in the UK, covering the response 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:15.039 to what I are hearing from the Israeli officials who 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:17.560 are confirming that the first of the hostages will be 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:20.080 released shortly. 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:22.480 How you put it to the beginning of the end 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:34.080 of the war, they wrong. 0:01:36.720 --> 0:01:38.920 I hope it is, but it's not up to us. 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:41.080 I hope it is. 0:01:42.360 --> 0:01:48.520 As I said, first phase is a temporary ceasefire. Humas 0:01:49.880 --> 0:01:54.520 during all the negotiations insisted that to reach where we 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:57.080 are today, we will pay with the end of the 0:01:57.160 --> 0:02:00.280 war with a permanent sea is far that will keep 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:01.200 them in power. 0:02:04.720 --> 0:02:05.840 We didn't agree to that. 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:10.880 We stood fear the Prime Minister and all the government 0:02:12.360 --> 0:02:17.200 that we will not withdraw from the objectives of the war. 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:23.080 Finally they agreed to this path, which on the first 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:31.320 phase includes a temporary cease fire. A consistent cease fire 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:35.680 will be negotiated. Yes, I said from the sixteen days, 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:39.440 and I hope we will reach it, but it's not 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:40.320 in our hands yet. 0:02:46.240 --> 0:02:50.200 You have said that, you have said that. 0:03:00.520 --> 0:03:04.000 Well, it depends on the point of view. Those who 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:05.000 hoped that. 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:12.440 Israeli concessions and with roles during the year will create 0:03:12.560 --> 0:03:17.440 hope for a security, stability and peace in the Middle 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:18.680 East was. 0:03:18.639 --> 0:03:22.320 Wrong as we saw that. I just mentioned our. 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:27.919 Last withal from Gaza Strip twenty years ago. There were 0:03:28.040 --> 0:03:32.480 big hopes at the time. Finally, I think everyone understand 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:39.040 that it didn't contribute to peace, to security and to stability. 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:45.080 So we must find a better way how to bring hope. 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:49.040 And I'll tell you what it is to bring hope. 0:03:49.200 --> 0:03:54.400 First of all, Palestinians should disconnect from terrorism, and I 0:03:54.480 --> 0:04:02.360 including the Palestinian authority who still financed their still continue 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:06.800 with the pay for Sleigh law, still pays terrorists. 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:08.160 And families of terroists. 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:11.000 According to the claim they did as much as there 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:15.360 are more time in jail, they paid them more. This 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:19.680 is not brings hope, it brings more terrorism. 0:04:20.240 --> 0:04:21.440 Second, that is. 0:04:21.560 --> 0:04:25.080 A spokesperson for the Israeli Foreign Ministry. The breaking news 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:27.240 at the top of tonight's program is that after four 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:30.840 hundred and seventy days in captivity, the first of the 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:34.279 final round of people to be brought out of captivity 0:04:34.560 --> 0:04:38.920 to cross back from Gaza into Israel. Emily she's British 0:04:38.920 --> 0:04:42.600 in twenty eight, romy who was from the Nova Music Festival, 0:04:42.640 --> 0:04:47.719 and Dorian, who's thirty one, also taken from her family 0:04:48.400 --> 0:04:50.599 more than a year ago. What you are also going 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:52.359 to start to see in the next little while is, 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:57.520 obviously the bombs have stopped falling on Gaza. Now, citizens 0:04:57.520 --> 0:04:59.720 are not going to be able to remove themselves from 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:01.919 wh they currently are in Gaza and moved back towards 0:05:01.920 --> 0:05:05.400 the north of that area until the second phase of 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:07.800 these things. But the live pictures that we are seeing 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:10.640 from Gaza is relief for the people who live there 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:11.159 that there. 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:14.559 Is no further harm coming their way. 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:17.760 But equally the concern of the next little while is 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:19.560 that while it's going to be three people now and 0:05:19.600 --> 0:05:22.560 three people later and three it's very slow, very very slow, 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:25.480 very very brittle. The next stage of this, which is 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:28.599 in about six weeks time, is when if there are 0:05:29.120 --> 0:05:32.680 Israeli soldiers which are currently in captivity, they will be released. 0:05:32.960 --> 0:05:36.240 And then the stage after that is when the bodies 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:40.800 that have been of the hostages that have died in 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:44.279 captivity or soldiers which have been killed in Gaza, they 0:05:44.320 --> 0:05:47.880 will be returned. But it is incredibly brittle we saw 0:05:47.960 --> 0:05:49.480 that what we're supposed to kick in at five point 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:53.040 thirty this afternoon has not really kicked in until all 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:56.960 about quarter to nine Australian eastern daylight time tonight, because 0:05:57.440 --> 0:06:01.040 the Israeli Prime Minister said, no, if nothing happens until 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:03.279 you start to give us the names of who is coming, 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:05.800 so we can obviously prepare those. 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.360 Families, and other families. 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:09.960 Will have to steal themselves that the people who they 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:13.200 love are still behind enemy lines more throughout the hour. 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:14.839 I've got a feeling this is going to be in 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:18.719 and out over the next few minutes as things start 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:21.799 to calm and relief comes to at least three families 0:06:22.240 --> 0:06:25.640 in Israel, and of course many many more on both 0:06:25.640 --> 0:06:27.719 sides of all of this, and anyone who is trying 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:32.960 to pay attention here in Australia. Now, I cannot meet 0:06:33.000 --> 0:06:36.080 this moment without referencing what happened late last week, which 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:42.239 was an attempt to continue the fight from overseas here, 0:06:43.240 --> 0:06:47.440 an overt absolute intimidation and in my view, an attempted 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:51.160 murder situation which played out in the eastern suburbs of Sydney. 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:55.120 This is when a home that was the former home 0:06:55.160 --> 0:06:57.520 of a person who is a significant Jewish leader. You've 0:06:57.520 --> 0:07:00.839 seen him on television many times here on Sky News. 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:04.560 The cars were set on fire and the house was 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:09.480 painted red to symbolized blood. There was also horrific things 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:13.360 written about Jews on one of those cars. Now the 0:07:13.440 --> 0:07:17.960 target was not home because the target doesn't live there anymore, 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:23.040 but someone somewhere thought that this is where this person lived. 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:26.600 Someone somewhere thought that setting a fire, not just a cars, 0:07:26.640 --> 0:07:28.920 but potentially the damage that would happen to the homes 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:35.320 would end up either intimidating this spokesperson from stop talking 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:39.200 or the wider Jewish community. That of course unacceptable, not 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:43.040 tolerated at all. In this country, many and most have 0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:45.880 talked about the scourge of anti Semitism that has been. 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:51.080 Like wildfire through particularly. 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:54.920 Certain sections of Melbourne and Sydney, but it is a 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:56.040 nationwide problem. 0:07:58.240 --> 0:08:01.080 The reaction to the deliberate. 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:03.680 Targeting of a person who has had the courage to 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:07.280 speak on the behalf of his community with concern of 0:08:07.880 --> 0:08:14.240 his community back in former countries is concerning, and as 0:08:14.280 --> 0:08:18.080 Sir Frank Lowi has spoken from Israel in recent hours, 0:08:18.120 --> 0:08:21.240 his fear is that someone is going to die before 0:08:21.280 --> 0:08:23.960 something serious takes place here. But this has been some 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:27.600 of the reaction from the Jewish community too, that fire 0:08:27.600 --> 0:08:29.320 bombing towards the end of last week. 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:32.760 I fear that we're going to wake up before long 0:08:32.800 --> 0:08:35.080 with someone dad. I think that's the trajectory that we're on, 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:37.200 and we've been there for a long time. When you 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:40.240 have people in our society who were so consumed by 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:43.000 wickedness and hatred that they would set fire to things, 0:08:43.000 --> 0:08:45.440 set fire to suburban streets, and risk the lives of 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:48.440 everyone who lives here simply because they disagree with certain 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:50.959 views or opinions, it shows that we're in a very 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:51.720 dangerous state. 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:53.160 Absolutely. 0:08:53.600 --> 0:08:55.960 Now, you can have whatever view about whatever is going 0:08:55.960 --> 0:08:57.560 on in other parts of the world, when you bring 0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:01.360 this garbage here, you will receive zero support from the 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:04.360 Australian people. In fact, less than it, you will become 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:08.000 a target of our law enforcement agencies and our governments 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:10.679 and the decent people of the country, the people who 0:09:10.679 --> 0:09:12.440 have been here for generations or the people who have 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:13.600 been here for a couple of weeks. 0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:16.160 This stuff is not acceptable. 0:09:15.960 --> 0:09:18.720 Now for obvious reasons, all and every if it must 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:20.800 be made to make sure that this sort of behavior 0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:26.199 does not take any further property or God forbid, injure people. 0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:27.520 Or take someone's lives. 0:09:28.760 --> 0:09:30.840 Now an important part about where we are tonight, and 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:34.199 I understand how fragile it is about this cease fire 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:37.520 and about how many people are going to be released 0:09:37.520 --> 0:09:39.400 from the captivity that they have been in for the 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:43.080 best part of as I say, four hundred and seventy days, 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:46.560 is going to require the temperature to start to drop 0:09:46.600 --> 0:09:49.880 here in Australia. Now, I want to say well done 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:53.240 to those who decided not to protest today as they 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:57.360 have of every week since Israel's response to what happened 0:09:57.400 --> 0:10:00.960 to them on October the seventh. These are people who 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:04.880 are the people who have been focused on the Palestinian 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:07.720 communities that they have connections to here in Australia, but 0:10:07.760 --> 0:10:12.760 of course back home now those people largely largely if 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:14.840 they have been protesting for that purpose, will they have 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:18.320 our support as a free country here the people who 0:10:18.360 --> 0:10:21.480 have used this situation to try to continue to spread 0:10:21.480 --> 0:10:25.240 hate or division, they do not have such support. But 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:27.320 today there was a protest in Melbourne and people have 0:10:27.360 --> 0:10:29.280 decided they aren't going to turn up. Why because the 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:34.200 ceasefire was on the table for today now in effect tonight. Thankfully, 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:36.959 some of those protesters have chosen not to turn up, 0:10:37.160 --> 0:10:41.120 but sadly there are protesters who have continued. Now I'm 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:43.800 not entirely sure why they are going to continue. I'm 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:46.040 also not entirely sure why the people who claim they 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:48.200 were going to run against labor MPs are planning to 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:51.640 do so now that cease fire, which is the first 0:10:51.679 --> 0:10:56.480 stage towards peace, has been delivered. All I will say 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:58.560 is on this issue, beware the people who want to 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:00.280 maintain the rage or maintain the fight. 0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:00.960 Now. 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:03.959 I'm not talking about the people who are keeping absolute 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:08.439 eye on the evils of Hamas and those people releasing hostages. 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:10.360 I am not talking about those people. I'm not talking 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:12.920 about an end to walk conversation because there is a 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:15.640 cease fire. What I am saying is that in the 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:20.560 freedom of this country, it is time for the protests 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:26.520 to stop, it is time for the hostages to be freed, 0:11:27.559 --> 0:11:29.120 and at a point in time it will be time 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:31.840 for Gaza to rebuild. But this will play out on 0:11:31.840 --> 0:11:34.040 the other side of the world. It must stop playing 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:38.679 out on the streets of Australia. To the Monday Matters, 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:41.040 of Australian politics. Let's get to this here. The first 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:43.760 opinion poll is out of the election year and it 0:11:43.840 --> 0:11:46.120 is not good reading for the Prime Minister or the team. 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:47.200 Of which he leads. 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:49.200 Have a look at this yere now, the way the 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:51.840 Poles ended last year was that News poll had the 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:55.040 Labor Party on thirty three percent, the Liberal Party on 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:58.360 thirty nine. The Resolve poll had twenty seven with the 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:01.600 Liberal Nationals on thirty eight, and the Essential poll which 0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:04.400 has a don't know portion here, had the Labor Party 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:07.760 on thirty percent and the Liberal national at thirty five percent. 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:09.280 To give you an idea of how that. 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:12.559 Compares to the twenty twenty two election, the Resolve poll 0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:14.880 is the best part of five points lower for the 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:17.920 Labor Party. It is about the same in News poll. 0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:21.800 It's about two and a half maybe three percent lower 0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:25.480 in the Essential poll. So the question is has the 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:28.920 Prime Minister's announcement a day and billions here and billions 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:32.200 there changed his fortunes over summer Well, according to that 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:34.880 first poll, the Yugov poll which has been released over 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:38.840 the weekend, the answer is no. In fact, even the 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:42.440 Union Superannuation funded news website putting the best spin on 0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:46.320 it possible says that voters have turned off Labor in 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:48.960 the lead up to the election. When asked the question 0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:52.959 of how do you feel about the PM's leadership, forty 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:55.200 percent of people have said that they are satisfied. But 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:58.040 has this fifty five percent of people are saying that 0:12:58.080 --> 0:13:02.520 they are dissatisfied the Prime minister's leadership. How does that 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:04.240 look for the primary vote? Well, I can show you 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:07.200 this too, that the Labor Party vote is basically where 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:09.360 it was at the last election, ever so slightly under, 0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:12.840 but the coalition number is way back up. The closer 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:14.920 they get to forty, the more likely they are to 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.440 win an election. Asterisk deals all the rest of it. 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:21.280 But that number shows that while Labor has moved nowhere, 0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:23.480 the coalition has come back into a position to be 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:26.720 able to be very competitive or potentially win an election. 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:30.280 That means in two party preferred that it is fifty 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.680 one forty nine fifty one forty nine. As for what 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:36.800 they were doing today, Prime Minister had more money, more 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:39.200 money each and every day to make an announcement. Of course, 0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:41.559 all of this ends up going off budget, not added 0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:43.920 to deficits, because of course it's an investment. 0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:48.000 It has been sitting on the books for a long 0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:51.400 period of time. But what my governor is determined to 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:55.600 do isn't just talk, it's to act and this project 0:13:55.920 --> 0:14:00.320 will transform this area. I want Western Sydney to be 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:02.800 a gateway to the rest of the world. 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:06.480 As for Peter Dudden, he was giving a speech and 0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:08.440 this is good that he's going to be giving these 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:11.720 big broad speeches each and every week in different areas, 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:14.680 different messages. This was part of his announcement today in 0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:17.440 Brisbane about getting the country back on track at the 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:19.840 election this year, and. 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:23.280 So today I announced that a coalition government will provide 0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:26.640 small businesses with a turnover up to ten million dollars 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.440 with a tax deduction of up to twenty thousand dollars 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:33.680 per year on food and entertainment at local clubs, pubs 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:35.360 and restaurants excluding alcohol. 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:38.800 Good to see now in a couple of minutes time 0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:40.920 Sunday nights, each and every night, I want you to 0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:44.080 know what we know and what the parties know about 0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:45.760 what's happening inside the election. We're going to do a 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:47.840 thing state of the race each and every week with 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:50.960 people who know the data and the strategy from all 0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:52.600 sides of politics. We'll get to that in a moment 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:56.360 or two's time. But as we speak on many people 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:59.800 are looking because the Chinese surveillance app otherwise known as TikTok. 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.360 Just have a look at its evidence in parliamentary committees, 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:04.320 both here and in the United States where it. 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:04.960 Has gone dark. 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:09.800 Why because Republicans and Democrats passed a law. It passed 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:11.880 the Senate, it passed the House, and it was even 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:16.240 signed off on by Joe Biden. It was due to 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:19.880 coming to effect today in the United States, but on 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.200 Saturday in the United States, very late at night, they 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:25.160 decided to get in early and not wait for Trump 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:28.360 to come back, but instead bang close the damn thing down. 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:30.680 And they're not taking it very well. 0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:34.800 Hours and hours and hours. 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:46.560 Of time they put into creating stuff for this platform. 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:48.760 They cannot stop crying. 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:51.640 Because now but simply what you are watching here is 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:55.520 people who are being forced into cold Turkey. It's probably 0:15:55.520 --> 0:15:59.080 how I react if they banned salt or sugar, But 0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:01.280 these people knew that it was coming. But it also 0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:04.320 is an example about just how far into the culture 0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:09.680 TikTok had infiltrated. Now TikTok is very different via its 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:12.840 parent company in China versus the rubbish that gets run 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:14.520 around in the Western world. But can we stop this 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:17.760 garbage as one hundred and seventy million people are affected 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:19.920 by this Because if you actually have a look at 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:22.920 what the Pew Research Institute came out with just late 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:25.080 last year, the number one thing people do on social 0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:28.200 media is YouTube, followed by Facebook, followed by. 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:29.880 Daylight, and then it's Pinterest. 0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:32.880 More people are on Pinterest in the United States than 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:36.600 on TikTok. And again for those that are going to 0:16:36.600 --> 0:16:38.320 be disappointed, upset and all the rest of it. And 0:16:38.320 --> 0:16:41.240 I know you don't want your old mate from Australia 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:43.040 telling you that there is a greater world outside of 0:16:43.040 --> 0:16:43.400 your phone. 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:46.920 But guess what, look up? Look up. 0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:50.440 The sunrises are amazing, The sunsets are incredible. You live 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:53.640 in an incredible country, lots of great rock and roll music, 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:55.840 lots of other things to do. Real life is always 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:57.920 more exciting than anything on the phone. But if you 0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:00.720 must return to the phone, of course, there's Instagram reels 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:02.560 where I'm obsessed with this. 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:19.280 Guy, Ah, my spirit animal? 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:19.840 How good is that? 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:22.000 I can't wait? Would I be allowed to grow here 0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:24.000 like that? And have a little mo on, Telly. Let's 0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:25.760 all learn together. We've got a big future in front 0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:28.600 of us. Each and every Sunday, We're going to start 0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:30.800 to get serious and I want you to get as 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:35.760 close to an insider's view about Australian politics as anyone's 0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:37.879 going to see on TV. I'm not talking about a 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:40.640 collection of reporters or journalists. I'm talking about people who 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:43.560 know the data and can answer some very key questions 0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:45.520 which will give you an idea about whether things are 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:47.880 going the way you want them to go or not. Now, 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:50.840 we worded you to have Michael Kroger in the conversation tonight. 0:17:50.960 --> 0:17:53.479 Sadly the e Commodore sixty four isn't working, but I'm 0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:55.160 pleased to say the other half of the conversation who 0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:57.800 will be the conversation tonight is Simon Wels. He works 0:17:57.840 --> 0:18:00.000 with the Red Bridge Group and he's a director of it. 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:01.840 You may we'll see him with the wonderful Laura Jays 0:18:01.920 --> 0:18:04.119 during the week and I appreciate him turning up on 0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:05.840 the show with the salt and pepper beard like me. 0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:08.919 That is where we begin our understanding of politics in 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:09.800 twenty twenty five. 0:18:09.960 --> 0:18:11.560 So I'm nice to see. Thank you for doing this. 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:12.240 Thank you to the red. 0:18:12.080 --> 0:18:15.320 Bridge people for joining us on a Sunday night pleasure. 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:17.439 I just really want to simply ask this question. 0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:19.040 In any data that you've seen. 0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:20.840 And I don't know whether you're doing the data now, 0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:23.879 but certainly that YouGov stuff that came out which was 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:26.280 from about the middle of January, so the height of summer. 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:28.480 Has anything changed over summer? 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:31.959 Has anything tectonically moved from what seemed to be a 0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:35.240 bad end to the year for the Prime Minister, chiefly 0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:36.359 around cost of living? 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:41.639 Yeah, look, always take January polls with a pinch of salt, 0:18:41.720 --> 0:18:44.879 just as a general wall in life. You know who's 0:18:44.880 --> 0:18:47.720 around to answer poles during January. But that said, I 0:18:48.280 --> 0:18:52.040 think that pole sort of pointing to no change to 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:55.120 the trend is probably on the money. There's nothing we've 0:18:55.160 --> 0:18:57.400 seen in any of our work to suggest that there's 0:18:57.440 --> 0:19:00.480 been a change over summer. Usually over summer takes some 0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:05.359 pretty monumental there owns a catastrophic because it's often around 0:19:05.359 --> 0:19:09.680 sort of catastrophes to really sort of jolt people out 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:12.639 of holiday mood, friends, family and all the rest of it, 0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:16.919 to get them to focus on the mundane politics as 0:19:16.960 --> 0:19:19.399 they would see it. So certainly nothing we've seen to 0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:21.399 suggest is any change to the trend. 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:21.800 Yeah. 0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:23.520 I mean the most obvious example would say be a 0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:25.879 Scott Morrison. We're post the win in twenty nineteen when 0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:27.719 the fires were there at the start of twenty twenty, 0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:30.440 it was a fundamental break. He was able to get 0:19:30.760 --> 0:19:34.040 a second wind or third considering where things were, but 0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:36.000 he got another win back at the start of COVID. 0:19:36.000 --> 0:19:38.080 But we all know where that ended up going because 0:19:39.040 --> 0:19:42.040 in many ways and police just yell at me if 0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:44.040 I'm wrong here right, you know you're in primetime. 0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:46.480 You can say whatever you want made, which is. 0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:51.000 Once the perception of a leader starts to build, it's 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:53.399 very difficult for them to be able to break it. 0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:56.080 And I remember a conversation that you had with Laura, 0:19:56.119 --> 0:19:57.920 and it was towards the end not of last year, 0:19:57.920 --> 0:20:01.200 but the year before, when they're people who were talking 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:04.199 to you were starting to say things like incompetent. They 0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:07.280 were starting to notice a collection of very negative perceptions 0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:09.760 around the Prime minister, and as best as I could follow, 0:20:09.800 --> 0:20:14.000 none of that really changed in twenty twenty four. Is 0:20:14.040 --> 0:20:17.520 this the difficulty for an incumbent government, regardless of who 0:20:17.520 --> 0:20:20.000 it is, that once they start to write you off, 0:20:20.560 --> 0:20:22.520 they generally don't give you another crack. 0:20:23.640 --> 0:20:28.040 Yeah, it's people's views are formed over a period of time. 0:20:28.280 --> 0:20:31.720 The idea that you can fundamentally shift people's views in 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:35.080 a campaign is I think a fallacious one. I think 0:20:35.080 --> 0:20:36.560 it has been like that for a very long time. 0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:37.359 You can tinker at. 0:20:37.240 --> 0:20:41.760 The edges, but core views of who you are as 0:20:41.760 --> 0:20:45.160 a leader and what you stand for are formed over time, 0:20:45.320 --> 0:20:47.800 and certainly for the Prime Minister, we saw we saw 0:20:47.840 --> 0:20:51.280 that erosion. We would watch in the focus groups how 0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:56.200 Elbow went from literally just about every group you would 0:20:56.200 --> 0:21:00.800 conduct early in their term of parliament would describing him 0:21:00.920 --> 0:21:03.399 as guy that I would like to have a beer with. 0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:05.680 You know that that is coming through in the groups. 0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:07.159 I know it's become a bit of a cliche, but 0:21:07.200 --> 0:21:11.560 it's true that that has now changed. You know, the 0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:14.920 the origin story about you know him and his mum, 0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:17.400 that that has become a negative where people are saying, well, 0:21:17.440 --> 0:21:20.480 he should know better, and the fact that he sort 0:21:20.480 --> 0:21:26.199 of hasn't acted boldly on cost of living, done the 0:21:26.280 --> 0:21:29.520 kinds of reforms that people wanted from a labor government 0:21:30.080 --> 0:21:33.119 has eroded sort of the value of those stories and 0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:36.040 has eroded the value of his leadership. He's got some 0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:41.080 real personal sort of leadership attribute attribute problems, because what 0:21:41.119 --> 0:21:44.399 happens is folk when you don't address something over a 0:21:44.440 --> 0:21:47.000 period of time, it starts to become they start to 0:21:47.040 --> 0:21:50.400 attribute it to a trait of you. So it's not 0:21:50.480 --> 0:21:52.239 just the circumstance. So early on, there was a lot 0:21:52.280 --> 0:21:54.359 of you know, he's inherited a difficult place. You know, 0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:58.639 Global's story is pretty complicated. There was there's excuses. But 0:21:58.760 --> 0:22:01.640 what you see over time when there's as people say, 0:22:01.640 --> 0:22:03.359 it's sort of a lack of action on something, they 0:22:03.400 --> 0:22:06.080 start to attribute to that to a characteristic of you, 0:22:06.240 --> 0:22:09.080 a trait of you. And that trait of his is 0:22:09.119 --> 0:22:11.320 either he's not brave enough to do something, or he's 0:22:11.359 --> 0:22:13.520 not competent and he doesn't know how to do something. 0:22:13.880 --> 0:22:16.000 That's the kind of landscape that we're in at the moment. 0:22:16.440 --> 0:22:18.320 Yeah, I think we've got Michael Krogan now who's going 0:22:18.359 --> 0:22:20.879 to give us his view on things now for obvious reasons, 0:22:20.880 --> 0:22:23.280 he simon, you know that I would like to see 0:22:23.280 --> 0:22:25.480 a change of government. So there's no mystery about where 0:22:25.480 --> 0:22:27.800 I'm coming from but I appreciate the sort of down 0:22:27.840 --> 0:22:30.720 the middle of this. But Michael, about what Simon has 0:22:30.720 --> 0:22:33.920 just been saying about the shifting perceptions that may well 0:22:34.280 --> 0:22:37.800 become the defining characteristics of a politician. Let's have a 0:22:37.840 --> 0:22:39.600 look at how Peter Dutton the start of the year 0:22:39.680 --> 0:22:42.240 this central theme of getting the country back on track. 0:22:42.280 --> 0:22:43.280 I think that's good. 0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:47.720 However, there hasn't really been and we haven't seen, say 0:22:47.880 --> 0:22:50.919 a funny ad or something on social media that seems 0:22:50.960 --> 0:22:53.480 to be driving home what the negative perceptions of the 0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:57.399 prime minister are. Why haven't they started by trying to 0:22:57.480 --> 0:23:00.840 lock in the perception of the current prime minism as 0:23:00.840 --> 0:23:03.760 a way of trying to boost their chances of becoming 0:23:03.800 --> 0:23:04.720 prime minister. 0:23:06.160 --> 0:23:09.359 Because the public can see for themselves what's happening. The 0:23:09.400 --> 0:23:12.120 Coalition have been doing that by saying Alberze's a weak 0:23:12.160 --> 0:23:16.960 prime minister, which everyone again can see, and Dutton is 0:23:17.160 --> 0:23:20.240 just just being very serious about things. You never see 0:23:20.280 --> 0:23:22.960 Dutton at a celebrity event. You don't seem at the 0:23:23.000 --> 0:23:28.560 tennis he's just head down, backside up, working hard for people. 0:23:28.840 --> 0:23:32.160 Albanize he's been too associated part of every the other 0:23:32.200 --> 0:23:36.919 problem personally personally Paul, he's been associated with the glitter, 0:23:37.000 --> 0:23:40.760 Arty's sporting events, housing purchase, etc. I mean, he doesn't 0:23:40.800 --> 0:23:43.639 give the impression of being someone who's there for the 0:23:43.640 --> 0:23:46.280 long term and is seriously interested in the working middle class. 0:23:46.640 --> 0:23:48.680 So that is obvious to people already. 0:23:48.680 --> 0:23:52.719 My friend now also, Simon, I'm interested to watch the 0:23:52.840 --> 0:23:55.639 caricature that each he's trying to build in and around 0:23:55.680 --> 0:23:56.359 social media. 0:23:56.400 --> 0:23:58.240 Here right now, I think. 0:23:58.119 --> 0:24:01.560 Mikhaylia cashes people at particular Lily Sharp because they keep 0:24:01.680 --> 0:24:03.720 using an image of the Prime Minister wearing a yes 0:24:03.840 --> 0:24:05.919 T shirt over and over and over and over and 0:24:05.920 --> 0:24:09.080 over and over again, because it's obviously reminded to well, 0:24:09.119 --> 0:24:10.879 that was his real priority, that was four hundred and 0:24:10.920 --> 0:24:13.400 fifty million dollars. That's where sixty percent of the population 0:24:13.520 --> 0:24:16.240 ended up being on the opposite side of him. But 0:24:16.560 --> 0:24:20.600 in what you've been able to work out, is there 0:24:20.600 --> 0:24:24.240 a hangover with the swinging voter about the prime minister 0:24:24.720 --> 0:24:27.879 and the priority of that year, because clearly someone in 0:24:27.920 --> 0:24:32.200 the coalition things that's the image to ram down their throats. 0:24:32.800 --> 0:24:35.760 Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean people will talk to us 0:24:35.800 --> 0:24:39.920 in the groups about how the government early on seemed 0:24:39.920 --> 0:24:41.719 to energize our doing a lot of stuff, and a 0:24:41.720 --> 0:24:45.080 lot of that energy went into this referendum, and post 0:24:45.160 --> 0:24:48.399 they sort of contrast that with post the referendum, we 0:24:48.480 --> 0:24:52.480 haven't heard from them. Now that's as much about a 0:24:52.520 --> 0:24:55.280 communication problem as it is a policy problem, because there 0:24:55.280 --> 0:24:57.639 obviously has been things like there's been tax cuts and 0:24:57.800 --> 0:25:00.560 changes to childcare, and there's an important there which I 0:25:00.640 --> 0:25:03.040 might circle back to at some point our conversation about 0:25:03.040 --> 0:25:06.120 them not building a narrative around all of that, which 0:25:06.160 --> 0:25:09.479 is particularly important. So it's a communication problem as much 0:25:09.480 --> 0:25:11.679 as it is a policy pom. But absolutely there is 0:25:11.720 --> 0:25:15.200 a perception of absence of this government at a time 0:25:15.240 --> 0:25:19.480 when economically, families, households were doing it incredibly hard. They 0:25:19.480 --> 0:25:21.879 were gone missing an action, but they seemed to be 0:25:21.920 --> 0:25:25.040 there and all about it during this referendum, which they 0:25:25.080 --> 0:25:27.399 never really explained to us. They just expected us to 0:25:27.480 --> 0:25:29.560 vote their way, and there was a sort of a 0:25:29.600 --> 0:25:33.520 bit of sense of contempt. Let's use that word. I 0:25:33.520 --> 0:25:34.840 don't know if it's the right word, but that sort 0:25:34.840 --> 0:25:37.159 of sense that it was assumed that we would follow 0:25:37.160 --> 0:25:39.040 their lead without them sort of bringing us with them 0:25:39.080 --> 0:25:42.520 on their journey. So there's this seed of dissatisfaction around it. 0:25:42.600 --> 0:25:45.000 Couple that with the absence and yeah, absolutely you've got 0:25:45.080 --> 0:25:45.960 something that works. 0:25:46.280 --> 0:25:47.320 And I'm not surprised. 0:25:47.000 --> 0:25:48.960 They're running with Yeah, Michael, when we were in the 0:25:49.040 --> 0:25:50.800 run up to the last election, things seemed to go 0:25:50.880 --> 0:25:53.880 the way they were. You were very astute, I thought 0:25:54.000 --> 0:25:58.160 in suggesting that the political and verbal landmine to leave 0:25:58.240 --> 0:26:00.360 behind on your way out of office was to say 0:26:00.400 --> 0:26:03.440 watch interestrates, watch interest rates, we'll guess what ended up coming. 0:26:03.480 --> 0:26:04.000 True. 0:26:05.560 --> 0:26:09.399 There was one under Morrison in twenty two, and then 0:26:09.440 --> 0:26:13.040 there's been twelve since. And ruinous scenario now where the 0:26:13.240 --> 0:26:15.359 very Canberra people who all sort of want to count 0:26:15.400 --> 0:26:17.920 the grains of sand on the beach sometimes forget the 0:26:18.040 --> 0:26:20.200 view and they think that all will be forgiven if 0:26:20.240 --> 0:26:22.920 the pressure of twelve becomes eleven. 0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:25.480 How does interest rates play in this game? 0:26:25.520 --> 0:26:28.520 Because Howard was able to make a strong case in 0:26:28.520 --> 0:26:31.360 O four that'll always be lower under us, he paid 0:26:31.359 --> 0:26:33.639 a price when that changed in the lead up to seven. 0:26:34.320 --> 0:26:36.800 What's the line Dutton should be running on interest rates? 0:26:39.240 --> 0:26:42.399 So the public think that the government has something to 0:26:42.400 --> 0:26:45.439 do with the interstrate level. They know there's this reserve 0:26:45.480 --> 0:26:48.199 bank out there that somehow says some independence, but the 0:26:48.200 --> 0:26:51.800 public think that government decisions affect interstrates and there one 0:26:51.840 --> 0:26:55.520 hundred percent correct in that. So the problem Albaneze's got 0:26:55.680 --> 0:26:59.680 is that his loss of control of federal government spending, 0:27:00.240 --> 0:27:02.399 not assisted by the state's loss of control of their 0:27:02.440 --> 0:27:06.040 spinning too, has led to higher interest rates for longer. 0:27:06.720 --> 0:27:08.920 It's not going to help Albanizi. By the way, if 0:27:08.920 --> 0:27:14.080 he gets one intrast rate reduction before the election, people 0:27:14.119 --> 0:27:15.960 are just going to think, oh, this is somehow cynical, 0:27:16.000 --> 0:27:18.960 He's manipulated it somehow just to you know, give us 0:27:18.960 --> 0:27:20.879 a little bit of cake mari Antoinette style. 0:27:22.119 --> 0:27:23.160 It's not going to help him. 0:27:23.800 --> 0:27:28.040 I think the narrative is set. I don't think Albanizi 0:27:28.080 --> 0:27:30.400 can turn things around because it's not as he hasn't 0:27:30.440 --> 0:27:32.680 been trying, Paul, this guy's been trying to turn things 0:27:32.680 --> 0:27:33.639 around for six months. 0:27:34.760 --> 0:27:36.680 He can't. He's type cast. 0:27:36.840 --> 0:27:38.879 I think the government's type cast. And as we know, 0:27:38.960 --> 0:27:42.440 the worldwide vibe as they call it now, is against 0:27:42.440 --> 0:27:47.520 these left wing, big spending, woke governments, and he's right 0:27:47.560 --> 0:27:48.520 in the firing line. 0:27:48.640 --> 0:27:48.840 Yeah. 0:27:48.840 --> 0:27:51.600 I mean, simon the asterisk that I have said. You know, 0:27:51.640 --> 0:27:54.600 despite my obvious views here is that the battle for 0:27:54.680 --> 0:27:56.240 seventy six or the battle. 0:27:55.920 --> 0:27:58.720 Even for minority is all in and around the Teals. 0:27:59.000 --> 0:28:01.240 Now again, I don't know whether there's poles within polls 0:28:01.280 --> 0:28:03.040 and focus groups, within focus groups. 0:28:02.880 --> 0:28:03.399 All the rest of it. 0:28:03.680 --> 0:28:07.359 Have you seen any evidence that any of the Teals 0:28:07.359 --> 0:28:10.680 are in trouble or is the expectation, you know that 0:28:10.800 --> 0:28:13.879 they're somehow out of team Red team blue politics. So 0:28:14.440 --> 0:28:16.160 mathematically there's not going to be. 0:28:16.880 --> 0:28:18.879 The rush towards the Libs. 0:28:20.720 --> 0:28:24.320 I think in those Teal seats there's a possibility that 0:28:24.359 --> 0:28:26.960 you might see one on a really bad night for 0:28:26.960 --> 0:28:29.800 the Tells, you might see two come back. So we 0:28:29.880 --> 0:28:32.480 put out analysis at the end of last year that 0:28:32.520 --> 0:28:35.359 I think put curtain sort of in the too close 0:28:35.400 --> 0:28:38.080 to call kind of kind of basket. Goldstein a little 0:28:38.120 --> 0:28:42.560 bit further behind that. But you know, even if you 0:28:42.680 --> 0:28:46.040 even if they lose those seats, there's a real, live 0:28:46.160 --> 0:28:48.600 possibility that there's other seats that are picked up in 0:28:48.680 --> 0:28:53.280 a Bradfield for example, and potentially others as well. So 0:28:53.440 --> 0:28:56.760 I think the Teal story sort of plays out in 0:28:56.800 --> 0:29:00.000 a neutral way. You know, it might be one seat 0:29:00.200 --> 0:29:02.360 sort of net thing, but that's not going to deliver 0:29:02.440 --> 0:29:04.880 you the seventy six that you need us you've pointed to. 0:29:05.280 --> 0:29:08.000 I think the real story here, the real battle here 0:29:08.160 --> 0:29:11.520 is that out of suburban, good old traditional labor Lib 0:29:11.600 --> 0:29:15.040 contests that we didn't see so much of in the 0:29:15.120 --> 0:29:17.760 last election. Our last election was the story of middle 0:29:17.800 --> 0:29:20.320 class Australia. I think this is a story of working 0:29:20.360 --> 0:29:22.760 class Australia and those outer suburbs. 0:29:22.960 --> 0:29:24.920 I'll ask you the same question, and there'll be a 0:29:25.000 --> 0:29:26.880 version of this probably every week between now and the election. 0:29:26.920 --> 0:29:29.000 But Michael, what is the one big issue that you 0:29:29.040 --> 0:29:31.360 think is out there for the taking that could really 0:29:31.400 --> 0:29:32.160 move some people. 0:29:36.360 --> 0:29:42.320 So there isn't one big issue because the government's played 0:29:42.360 --> 0:29:46.960 its best cards already. It'll do something on childcare. They 0:29:46.960 --> 0:29:48.800 did something today, a big announcement to be nion dolllars. 0:29:48.800 --> 0:29:50.920 They haven't got any money. The public don't believe any 0:29:50.960 --> 0:29:56.080 of their expenditure anymore. It's just adding more debt to 0:29:56.560 --> 0:30:00.280 you know, bloated government debt already. The one thing Peter 0:30:00.360 --> 0:30:02.960 Dutton can do is find some more cost of living 0:30:03.160 --> 0:30:06.480 measures which are going to be addressed to the working 0:30:06.480 --> 0:30:10.920 middle class and to let people know that the tax 0:30:10.960 --> 0:30:15.040 system basically doesn't work in their favor. It favors the 0:30:15.120 --> 0:30:18.880 major corporate sector more than it favors the working middle class. 0:30:18.920 --> 0:30:20.600 If he can get a policy around that, and as 0:30:20.600 --> 0:30:25.800 I've said before, I've given him one, he will win 0:30:25.840 --> 0:30:29.000 in his own right because the public knows the tax 0:30:29.040 --> 0:30:32.560 system works against them, which it does, it doesn't favor them. 0:30:32.560 --> 0:30:35.440 If he can get onto that, he'll get more than 0:30:35.480 --> 0:30:36.760 seventy six in his own right. 0:30:37.040 --> 0:30:39.239 Paul, all right, Well, long chap between now and then. 0:30:39.320 --> 0:30:41.600 Simon's same question about the people who just bring that 0:30:41.640 --> 0:30:43.600 one thing up. The politicians never want to talk about, 0:30:43.600 --> 0:30:45.440 but if they did, it would move evoke. 0:30:46.880 --> 0:30:49.960 Yeah, but no surprises. I think the boring answer here 0:30:50.000 --> 0:30:53.160 is that this is a cost of living election, and 0:30:53.800 --> 0:30:59.920 labor's opportunity to shift votes, I think is at a 0:31:00.120 --> 0:31:02.320 come up with some policy themselves, some the ideas, and 0:31:02.360 --> 0:31:05.240 as I say, that narrative tied all together, a narrative, 0:31:05.280 --> 0:31:07.840 this kind of one off, kind of an announcement here, 0:31:07.880 --> 0:31:11.360 an announcement here that doesn't tie into a big narrative 0:31:11.400 --> 0:31:14.320 of how we're going to sort of build back the economy, 0:31:14.680 --> 0:31:17.480 build back the quality of life that we had prior 0:31:17.600 --> 0:31:20.360 to COVID. That's the bit that's missing from them. And look, 0:31:20.600 --> 0:31:22.360 I think that they've got to try it. They've got 0:31:22.360 --> 0:31:25.240 to try and make done a risk to your household budget. 0:31:25.280 --> 0:31:27.600 They've got to make him an economic risk for you 0:31:27.000 --> 0:31:30.840 at the household level. But he won't be a moving target. 0:31:31.040 --> 0:31:33.040 I think Michael is exactly right. I think you will 0:31:33.080 --> 0:31:36.600 be putting forward some pretty well targeted policy. You've got 0:31:36.640 --> 0:31:38.080 to expect that. So I think that's going to be 0:31:38.160 --> 0:31:39.320 very difficult for Simon. 0:31:39.400 --> 0:31:39.720 Michael. 0:31:39.760 --> 0:31:40.640 I like this team. 0:31:40.840 --> 0:31:41.320 I like it. 0:31:41.440 --> 0:31:44.480 Let's convene again next week. Thank you, lads, do appreciate 0:31:44.520 --> 0:31:45.200 it very much. 0:31:45.240 --> 0:31:46.360 So the State of the Race. 0:31:46.400 --> 0:31:47.800 I'll do this each and every Sunday because the joy 0:31:47.800 --> 0:31:49.920 of a Sunday Night Paul Murray Live Show is this is. 0:31:49.840 --> 0:31:50.640 For the hard course. 0:31:50.880 --> 0:31:53.200 This is for the people who want the detail, who 0:31:53.240 --> 0:31:55.680 want the data, who want to know what's going on shore. 0:31:55.720 --> 0:31:57.400 We'll put the opinion in and. 0:31:57.320 --> 0:31:57.880 Around it all. 0:31:58.120 --> 0:32:00.240 One of the reasons why we love having more Michael 0:32:00.280 --> 0:32:02.160 there is because, of course he's been in the trenches 0:32:02.160 --> 0:32:04.440 plenty of times. The reason we like Simon as well 0:32:04.640 --> 0:32:06.480 is that they're not just doing polling, they're doing focus whip. 0:32:06.480 --> 0:32:09.400 It's actually talking to voters and voters. 0:32:09.080 --> 0:32:11.600 And they've got full perspective on As I said, maybe 0:32:11.600 --> 0:32:13.040 the stuff you want to see and the stuff you 0:32:13.080 --> 0:32:14.840 don't put a full perspective about what's. 0:32:14.720 --> 0:32:15.600 Going on in Australia. 0:32:15.680 --> 0:32:18.360 Fascinating election years. There's a nothing like them. Here on 0:32:18.400 --> 0:32:20.120 Sky News Quick break Back with more plenty to talk 0:32:20.120 --> 0:32:22.120 about here on Port Marie Life. Chris Kenny will join 0:32:22.200 --> 0:32:24.320 us from the United States where we get ready for 0:32:24.400 --> 0:32:26.720 the great Man to return just a couple of days 0:32:26.760 --> 0:32:32.440 from now. Thank you so much for watching. Let's get 0:32:32.440 --> 0:32:35.720 into it now. James Ashby from One Nation is there. 0:32:35.720 --> 0:32:38.240 He's joining us now from the beautiful state of Queensland. 0:32:38.360 --> 0:32:39.920 Looking good mate, How was summer for you? 0:32:42.360 --> 0:32:43.080 A very good night. 0:32:43.280 --> 0:32:46.200 We took the caravan away with a couple of metal 0:32:46.240 --> 0:32:49.280 detectors out west and found a gold. 0:32:49.000 --> 0:32:52.640 Mine, Ossie gold Hunter, fantastic. We're getting you on that, Sharle. 0:32:52.800 --> 0:32:53.680 It was cooked. 0:32:53.480 --> 0:32:56.520 Ossie gold Hunter, all right, and Ghira Badoir I don 0:32:56.680 --> 0:32:59.480 knew I was going to do it. Sorry, and Gear 0:32:59.520 --> 0:33:02.440 of course work for the Daily Telegraph and police to 0:33:02.480 --> 0:33:03.760 say she's part of the show. And I will learn 0:33:03.760 --> 0:33:06.800 your name properly and announce it as many times they 0:33:06.800 --> 0:33:08.320 can until I know it as well as mine. 0:33:08.400 --> 0:33:09.560 Now let's talk. 0:33:09.440 --> 0:33:11.520 Here about what a lot of people going into the 0:33:11.520 --> 0:33:15.080 federal election I think are going to make a slight miscalculation. 0:33:15.680 --> 0:33:17.520 Is that because Trump was able to defeat all the 0:33:17.560 --> 0:33:19.200 things Trump was able to defeat, he was able to 0:33:19.200 --> 0:33:20.640 push aside a whole bunch of wokeness. 0:33:20.960 --> 0:33:22.480 That's what's coming to Australia. 0:33:22.600 --> 0:33:24.840 I think people need to actually have a look at 0:33:24.840 --> 0:33:28.080 how companies are reacting to the Australia Day discussion, how 0:33:28.080 --> 0:33:31.240 things like cricket Australia are reacting to no cricket on 0:33:31.400 --> 0:33:34.920 Australia Day, and they are not bending the same way 0:33:35.040 --> 0:33:39.080 that they have in other places like America. How do 0:33:39.200 --> 0:33:42.680 you see the battle around wokeness in twenty twenty five, 0:33:42.760 --> 0:33:45.960 and whether Australia is closer to Canada in the UK 0:33:46.440 --> 0:33:47.520 or Trump's America. 0:33:48.040 --> 0:33:49.720 I'm going to say probably Canada and the UK. And 0:33:49.800 --> 0:33:51.280 I think that's because we tend to see a lot 0:33:51.320 --> 0:33:54.240 of political trends trickle here a lot slower than what 0:33:54.280 --> 0:33:55.960 we see in the US. So I know we've seen 0:33:56.400 --> 0:33:58.680 the US have I mean, the big tech companies have 0:33:58.720 --> 0:34:03.120 spoken out against it. They really gotten behind Trump's messaging, 0:34:03.160 --> 0:34:04.480 But I think it's going to take a little bit 0:34:04.560 --> 0:34:07.000 more time for any of those trends to come down 0:34:07.000 --> 0:34:08.879 here as we often see the case. 0:34:09.080 --> 0:34:11.880 Yeah, James, you and I were all plenty online and 0:34:11.920 --> 0:34:13.520 we're seeing all of the things that are great about 0:34:13.520 --> 0:34:16.719 what's transferring in America. But there is a golf and 0:34:16.800 --> 0:34:20.040 I think that the wall of wopness is a little 0:34:20.080 --> 0:34:23.560 taller and a little stronger now in January twenty five 0:34:23.640 --> 0:34:26.200 in Australia than the bended knees that are starting to 0:34:26.200 --> 0:34:26.960 happen in the States. 0:34:26.960 --> 0:34:27.480 Am I right? 0:34:30.120 --> 0:34:33.960 I think Australians are starting to finally find their voice 0:34:34.239 --> 0:34:37.520 and that has been probably spurred on a little bit 0:34:37.960 --> 0:34:41.520 by the US election of Donald Trump. That is going 0:34:41.560 --> 0:34:44.880 to pay dividends for this country and I might just 0:34:44.920 --> 0:34:47.400 say ahead of our federal elections. So I think Trump's 0:34:47.440 --> 0:34:50.320 going to be speaking the same language as the majority 0:34:50.320 --> 0:34:54.080 of Australians. They may not say it publicly, but they're 0:34:54.120 --> 0:34:57.120 saying it in their loungdrms. I know within my own 0:34:57.160 --> 0:35:00.520 family circles, they're starting to say, you know, we've got 0:35:00.520 --> 0:35:03.520 a safe space in our own home, but that safe 0:35:03.560 --> 0:35:06.279 space extends to the ballot box. And I think for 0:35:06.480 --> 0:35:08.480 a lot of people, they're going to be saying, we're 0:35:08.520 --> 0:35:11.439 going to have our say at this next election, whether 0:35:11.480 --> 0:35:14.200 it be for a major party or a minor party. 0:35:14.719 --> 0:35:18.400 Australians have a chance whenever that federal election is to 0:35:18.480 --> 0:35:21.600 finally say we've had a gupful of this woke behavior 0:35:21.800 --> 0:35:23.920 and we're going to vote for somebody a little bit different. 0:35:24.080 --> 0:35:26.279 You don't have to vote for a major party. You 0:35:26.280 --> 0:35:28.640 can vote for a minor party like One Nation and 0:35:28.680 --> 0:35:32.440 then direct your preferences to the next best option. But 0:35:32.480 --> 0:35:34.200 I'd simply say this to people, if you've had a 0:35:34.200 --> 0:35:36.839 gupful of the two major parties, here's your chance at 0:35:36.840 --> 0:35:39.640 this election. Do as they've done in America. Get rid 0:35:39.680 --> 0:35:42.759 of the current government because woke will send us broke. 0:35:43.760 --> 0:35:45.879 And can I also say to people who are going, oh, yeah, 0:35:45.880 --> 0:35:47.040 but if I vote for One Nation, it's not going 0:35:47.040 --> 0:35:48.640 a mataic because there's going to be a liberal person anyway, 0:35:48.680 --> 0:35:50.640 whether there's going to be a labored person anyway or 0:35:50.719 --> 0:35:54.279 whatever other minor party. Here's the deal the Senate. Like 0:35:54.320 --> 0:35:56.120 think about how everything comes down to the Senate. 0:35:56.160 --> 0:35:57.239 It's a statewide vote. 0:35:57.239 --> 0:35:59.120 Okay, So yeah, all right, you know who knows what's 0:35:59.160 --> 0:36:00.759 going to happen with you your local MP. 0:36:01.239 --> 0:36:02.279 But how you vote in the. 0:36:02.239 --> 0:36:04.200 Senate, regardless of what is going to happen in your 0:36:04.239 --> 0:36:06.960 local electorate, will inform how many people go to the 0:36:06.960 --> 0:36:09.240 Senate and whether we end up with a super lefty Senate, 0:36:09.320 --> 0:36:11.040 a more centrius one, or one that is going to 0:36:11.080 --> 0:36:13.240 be a little more to all of our liking. Now, 0:36:13.320 --> 0:36:16.520 I think that the issue at this election which is 0:36:16.600 --> 0:36:20.080 going to jump people into places where historically they've never 0:36:20.120 --> 0:36:24.319 been before is buying a house. Now. I don't know 0:36:24.320 --> 0:36:26.680 what role government turns around here. Government's not going to 0:36:26.680 --> 0:36:28.600 turn around and say, hey, you want that one bedroom 0:36:28.680 --> 0:36:30.719 unit for your kid, here's one hundred grand. I know 0:36:30.760 --> 0:36:32.200 that they're going to say, oh, well there's a pilot 0:36:32.280 --> 0:36:35.160 program for four fifth to bugger all people who've already 0:36:35.480 --> 0:36:38.239 gone in with their best mate, or the government's going 0:36:38.280 --> 0:36:41.719 to help to buy. But in your reporting, is this 0:36:41.760 --> 0:36:44.520 one of these issues where you can see people that 0:36:44.560 --> 0:36:47.040 are hardcore labor people that if Peter Dutton somehow had 0:36:47.080 --> 0:36:50.520 a magical answer, they'd flip and vice versa for some 0:36:50.600 --> 0:36:51.600 conservative photus. 0:36:51.960 --> 0:36:55.120 Absolutely, And I think we were talking about American trends 0:36:55.160 --> 0:36:58.520 coming into Australia. I think the working poor is something 0:36:58.560 --> 0:37:01.400 that we are seeing in Australia which we didn't have before. 0:37:01.480 --> 0:37:05.239 But increasingly I've spoken to people who both parents are 0:37:05.280 --> 0:37:07.759 working and they've got good jobs, but they're struggling to 0:37:07.840 --> 0:37:10.880 meet against meat and a lot of posters have also 0:37:10.920 --> 0:37:13.840 said that those mortgage belts it's out of suburban areas 0:37:13.840 --> 0:37:16.240 in metropolitan cities are going to be the tough spot. 0:37:16.320 --> 0:37:18.960 So I don't think Australians are as loyal to a 0:37:19.000 --> 0:37:21.880 party they've always been. This time around. They are loyal 0:37:21.920 --> 0:37:23.560 to whoever's going to get them the best deal on 0:37:23.600 --> 0:37:25.040 their cost of living. 0:37:25.239 --> 0:37:27.960 They're not even loyal to a phone company. Littlee politics 0:37:28.040 --> 0:37:30.480 right now. But again James, that factor. We're again in 0:37:30.560 --> 0:37:34.720 regional Queensland, where again it's going to be slightly easier 0:37:34.760 --> 0:37:37.839 to buy. But that's if you're expecting people to still 0:37:37.840 --> 0:37:40.040 be earning Sydney or Melbourne corporate money. But of course 0:37:40.040 --> 0:37:43.560 they don't the further we go. So how many people 0:37:43.640 --> 0:37:46.120 when you were running for state politics or in your 0:37:46.120 --> 0:37:49.880 position now, how big an issue is I want somewhere 0:37:49.880 --> 0:37:52.200 for my kids to buy, where people will go You 0:37:52.200 --> 0:37:53.960 know what? You could be the workest of work. But 0:37:54.000 --> 0:37:56.440 if somehow you've got an answer for this, I'm seriously 0:37:56.480 --> 0:38:00.720 going to think about you. 0:38:00.719 --> 0:38:02.680 You know, Paul, It's never been easy for a person 0:38:02.680 --> 0:38:05.000 to buy a house. It doesn't matter what generation we're 0:38:05.040 --> 0:38:10.200 talking to. The people at home there in their seventies, eighties, forties, fifties, 0:38:10.320 --> 0:38:13.600 doesn't matter. It's always been difficult to get into the 0:38:13.600 --> 0:38:16.640 housing market, whichever demographic you look at. And I hate 0:38:16.640 --> 0:38:18.160 to say it, I know a lot of people are 0:38:18.200 --> 0:38:20.960 living paycheck to paycheck, trying to put that money away. 0:38:21.480 --> 0:38:23.440 I know other reports are out there saying people are 0:38:23.480 --> 0:38:26.759 doing that. But even when you own a home, you're 0:38:26.760 --> 0:38:30.359 living paycheck to paycheck. I put a new clothesline out 0:38:30.360 --> 0:38:32.640 in the back, you know, hit me four hundred bucks. 0:38:32.719 --> 0:38:33.360 I was lucky. 0:38:33.640 --> 0:38:35.840 I could still dig a hole myself. I could still 0:38:35.880 --> 0:38:38.640 concrete that thing in. Otherwise it probably cost me another 0:38:38.640 --> 0:38:40.839 four hundred bucks to put it in. It doesn't matter 0:38:40.880 --> 0:38:43.600 whether you own a home or you're renting. There are 0:38:43.640 --> 0:38:47.040 still ongoing costs, and this is the difficulty for a 0:38:47.040 --> 0:38:49.360 lot of people. It's never easy to get into the 0:38:49.400 --> 0:38:52.160 housing market. But don't think that once you're in, it's 0:38:52.200 --> 0:38:54.959 a free Rideer it's an easy ride because you've still 0:38:54.960 --> 0:38:57.359 got maintenance, You've still got upgrades you want to do. 0:38:57.600 --> 0:38:59.359 I just went and had dinner with friends who put 0:38:59.360 --> 0:39:02.000 a new kitchen in the house. It's a unit. It 0:39:02.080 --> 0:39:04.480 cost him close to one hundred thousand dollars. So all 0:39:04.520 --> 0:39:07.359 these things people have to think about. Whatever you're doing 0:39:07.400 --> 0:39:10.479 out there, whether you're renting or buying, it's still tough 0:39:10.560 --> 0:39:13.200 no matter which way you try and slice or dice it. 0:39:13.440 --> 0:39:17.359 I'm not saying it's any easier either way, but it's 0:39:17.440 --> 0:39:21.080 going to be tough for Ossie's moving forward because nothing 0:39:21.280 --> 0:39:24.080 is easy in this country, especially when you've got an 0:39:24.120 --> 0:39:28.080 influx of migrants coming into the country under both major parties, 0:39:28.120 --> 0:39:30.520 but particularly under Labor. There's going to be a huge 0:39:30.560 --> 0:39:33.960 influx of migration under Labor if we give them a 0:39:34.000 --> 0:39:37.520 second term. The coalition is slightly better, but I think 0:39:37.560 --> 0:39:41.440 we should be more focused on looking after Australian so 0:39:41.440 --> 0:39:45.200 that we can lower the price of housing and affordability 0:39:45.200 --> 0:39:45.840 moving forward. 0:39:46.760 --> 0:39:48.680 And gi Robartawaje, did I get it? 0:39:49.600 --> 0:39:49.920 Damn it. 0:39:50.360 --> 0:39:51.880 I'm telling you I'm going to get it. I'll get it. 0:39:51.920 --> 0:39:53.319 I apologized on it all right. 0:39:53.520 --> 0:39:56.239 TikTok Are you sucked into the Chinese surveillance app Are 0:39:56.280 --> 0:39:58.839 you glad that you're not in America and it's disappeared? 0:39:58.960 --> 0:40:01.880 Or you can see the forest for the trees. 0:40:02.160 --> 0:40:04.520 I've been there. I can't say that I haven't fallen 0:40:04.520 --> 0:40:07.799 into that trap in the past, but maybe less so 0:40:07.880 --> 0:40:10.120 now that all the American TikTok influencers are going to 0:40:10.160 --> 0:40:12.719 leave and there's less content on there. I know a 0:40:12.719 --> 0:40:15.279 lot of people in America are pretty frustrated by that, 0:40:15.320 --> 0:40:18.600 and there's been pressure here domestically for Anthony Alberzi to 0:40:18.640 --> 0:40:20.160 do something on this. So maybe we'll be in the 0:40:20.160 --> 0:40:22.480 same boat and we're all going to be sobbing over 0:40:22.520 --> 0:40:23.240 losing TikTok. 0:40:23.320 --> 0:40:24.560 Well, the version, of course, is going to be in 0:40:24.600 --> 0:40:26.360 and around the teenage stuff, which I know people have 0:40:26.400 --> 0:40:27.279 had very strong views on. 0:40:27.280 --> 0:40:28.520 But we'll wait and see where this goes. 0:40:28.520 --> 0:40:30.720 All Right, James and bold prediction for the Weak Ahead, 0:40:30.760 --> 0:40:33.120 what's definitely happening because the power of the bold prediction 0:40:33.360 --> 0:40:36.080 on Paul Murray Live is that it is enforceable by law. 0:40:39.080 --> 0:40:42.720 Well, I can't see things improving for the Albanese government, 0:40:42.760 --> 0:40:45.120 but I also don't see things improving for the coalition 0:40:45.160 --> 0:40:47.040 over time. I think there's a lot of pork barreling 0:40:47.080 --> 0:40:50.600 going on over the next couple of months. Ossie's or 0:40:50.760 --> 0:40:54.720 are awake to this, and I think that piling results 0:40:54.840 --> 0:40:58.040 probably won't move that much for either of the major parties. 0:40:58.200 --> 0:41:00.920 Probably see an increase to parties one nation as we 0:41:00.960 --> 0:41:02.400 start to roll out our policies. 0:41:02.560 --> 0:41:04.279 Good Man, I love it. I love it when he's 0:41:04.320 --> 0:41:06.560 on message. Good to see it. All right, And Geira, 0:41:06.680 --> 0:41:07.239 what is it for you? 0:41:07.800 --> 0:41:10.000 He said, bold, not realistic. I'm going to go for 0:41:10.040 --> 0:41:12.400 some wishful thinking and maybe the PM will call the 0:41:12.440 --> 0:41:14.280 election great adimam misery. 0:41:14.400 --> 0:41:18.560 Well from your mouth. You know it's legally enforceable. Thank you, 0:41:18.600 --> 0:41:19.280 welcome aboard. 0:41:19.280 --> 0:41:19.920 I appreciate it. 0:41:19.960 --> 0:41:21.799 I'd love to see new faces and good people with 0:41:21.840 --> 0:41:23.719 plenty of things to say here on a Sunday night, 0:41:23.760 --> 0:41:24.960 or every night here on Paul Maurray Life. 0:41:24.960 --> 0:41:25.359 Thank you, guys. 0:41:25.360 --> 0:41:27.759 We'll see you again. In a moment or two. We're 0:41:27.760 --> 0:41:30.000 going to be joined by Chris Kenny, who's in Washington. 0:41:30.560 --> 0:41:33.440 The Great Man is about to reassume the position of president, 0:41:33.480 --> 0:41:34.560 but he'll be doing it inside. 0:41:34.640 --> 0:41:34.799 Chris. 0:41:34.880 --> 0:41:40.680 It's bloody cold there. Thanks for watching. 0:41:40.680 --> 0:41:42.160 Don't forget you go to send me an email Paul 0:41:42.200 --> 0:41:44.360 at skynews dot com dot are you all the highlights 0:41:44.400 --> 0:41:47.359 of everything we do, including this right now creepy right 0:41:47.440 --> 0:41:50.080 because it's happening live on your telling is a skynews 0:41:50.080 --> 0:41:52.680 dot com dot AU now. Best place in the world 0:41:52.680 --> 0:41:55.320 to be apart from your place right now is Washington, 0:41:55.400 --> 0:41:58.160 DC because the great man Donald Trump is about to 0:41:58.160 --> 0:42:00.680 return to the presidency. And speaking of great men, Chris 0:42:00.719 --> 0:42:03.400 Kenny is watching it all for us with the Capitol 0:42:03.440 --> 0:42:05.400 behind him. Are the memories when I was there on 0:42:05.440 --> 0:42:09.040 election night, but you're there as he's about to become president, Chris. 0:42:09.200 --> 0:42:10.560 We look forward to new shows this week. 0:42:10.640 --> 0:42:10.799 Mate. 0:42:10.840 --> 0:42:13.400 How's it going great. 0:42:13.120 --> 0:42:14.080 To talk to you, Paul. 0:42:14.120 --> 0:42:16.759 You'd love to be here right now. I know it's 0:42:16.800 --> 0:42:19.040 not very cold at the moment. It's just above zero 0:42:19.120 --> 0:42:21.040 for us, but it's going to get a lot colder 0:42:21.080 --> 0:42:21.959 in the next few days. 0:42:21.960 --> 0:42:22.960 I'll mention in a moment. 0:42:23.040 --> 0:42:25.359 But the great thing about the town at the moment, 0:42:25.440 --> 0:42:28.640 the reason you'd love to be here is, as you know, Washington, 0:42:28.719 --> 0:42:31.600 d C. Is the swamp. This is the home of 0:42:31.760 --> 0:42:34.400 the left and the woke. It's the Canberra bubble on 0:42:34.560 --> 0:42:38.440 steroids ninety three percent of the people in Washington, d C. 0:42:39.000 --> 0:42:42.320 Voted for Kamala Harris, and not too many Trump supporters 0:42:42.360 --> 0:42:45.239 in these parts. But at the moment, they're coming in 0:42:45.280 --> 0:42:47.440 from all around the country, and as we've wandered around 0:42:47.440 --> 0:42:49.880 the streets today, we've spoken of people have come in 0:42:49.880 --> 0:42:53.480 from Florida, from Louisiana, plenty came in from Texas on 0:42:53.520 --> 0:42:56.839 our flight from Dallas, as well, people from nearby Virginia. 0:42:56.960 --> 0:43:00.399 These are the people who think Washington d C. Ignore them. 0:43:00.560 --> 0:43:03.000 Well, they're taking it over this week to celebrate the 0:43:03.080 --> 0:43:06.040 return of Donald Trump, who they reckon might actually drain 0:43:06.120 --> 0:43:07.200 the joint this time. 0:43:07.960 --> 0:43:10.399 And things do feel different this time around, don't they 0:43:10.400 --> 0:43:14.040 Because the first time, for fellow Trump supporters, let's be honest, 0:43:14.040 --> 0:43:16.200 it felt a little bit like we had won lotto. 0:43:16.560 --> 0:43:19.799 But this time we all saw it coming the arm 0:43:19.840 --> 0:43:22.640 wrestle where we're all part of, and it's a very broad. 0:43:22.600 --> 0:43:23.560 And definite win. 0:43:24.280 --> 0:43:26.160 They also come in with a whole bunch of very 0:43:26.160 --> 0:43:28.920 detailed plans, including on day one, whether you're going to 0:43:28.920 --> 0:43:31.720 start the deportation of the midions of illegals that Biden 0:43:31.800 --> 0:43:34.720 led in over the years. Do you think that Trump 0:43:34.719 --> 0:43:37.759 supporters this time have a feeling that rather than the 0:43:37.800 --> 0:43:42.200 hope of change, that change is coming to America in 0:43:42.280 --> 0:43:43.320 just a couple of days. 0:43:43.719 --> 0:43:45.920 Yeah, they really think this is the reset. This is 0:43:45.960 --> 0:43:47.920 really happening. They think is this is a return to 0:43:47.960 --> 0:43:50.719 the way things ought to be, And we spoke to 0:43:50.760 --> 0:43:51.080 a lot. 0:43:51.000 --> 0:43:53.160 Of them around the place today. 0:43:53.239 --> 0:43:55.759 Of course, the big disappointment for them is that the 0:43:55.760 --> 0:43:59.000 inauguration ceremony has been moved inside. 0:43:59.040 --> 0:44:00.400 We mentioned the weather at start. 0:44:00.440 --> 0:44:03.840 It's going to snow most of tomorrow, that's Sunday, Washington, 0:44:03.920 --> 0:44:04.839 DC time, and. 0:44:04.760 --> 0:44:06.239 Then that's not going to be too bad. 0:44:06.280 --> 0:44:08.920 That'll be pretty it'll make things difficult to get organized, 0:44:08.920 --> 0:44:10.759 and it will be very nice to see. It's not 0:44:10.800 --> 0:44:13.840 going to be super cold, just below zero. But on 0:44:13.960 --> 0:44:18.080 Inauguration Day the forecast is for minus ten and strong wind. 0:44:18.160 --> 0:44:21.040 So for the first time since Ronald Reagan was sworn 0:44:21.040 --> 0:44:23.480 in for the second time in nineteen eighty five, they're 0:44:23.480 --> 0:44:27.239 going to have the inauguration in the capital rotunda. They'll 0:44:27.239 --> 0:44:30.040 only be about six hundred people in there instead of 0:44:30.120 --> 0:44:32.520 hundreds of thousands out in the mall. So this is 0:44:32.640 --> 0:44:34.560 one of the things I talked about. 0:44:34.320 --> 0:44:36.680 With people around the streets today have a look. 0:44:40.120 --> 0:44:43.040 So with the weather forecast for an auuration day being 0:44:43.239 --> 0:44:46.279 absolutely abysmal, it's a sad site today to see the 0:44:46.280 --> 0:44:47.080 grand stands. 0:44:46.800 --> 0:44:49.560 Instead of being ready to be filled, they're being pulled down. 0:44:50.000 --> 0:44:52.319 We found plenty of people getting around the city with 0:44:52.400 --> 0:44:56.560 a lot of enthusiasm anyway. 0:44:56.800 --> 0:44:59.520 So it is Donald Trump and New Yorker are a Floridian. 0:45:00.000 --> 0:45:03.440 He loves the tax treatment in Florida. We're here just 0:45:03.480 --> 0:45:04.560 to support our presidents. 0:45:04.600 --> 0:45:07.640 So are you disappointed that the show is going to 0:45:07.640 --> 0:45:08.520 be moved inside? 0:45:09.040 --> 0:45:09.759 I guess a little bit. 0:45:09.800 --> 0:45:11.800 It will been nice to be, you know, be outside, 0:45:11.880 --> 0:45:14.000 be a part of it, but unfortunately have bad weather coming. 0:45:14.040 --> 0:45:15.200 It's going to be cold, so I think it's for 0:45:15.320 --> 0:45:15.640 the better. 0:45:15.840 --> 0:45:18.160 So why is German TV bringing a cut out of 0:45:18.239 --> 0:45:18.880 Donald Trumper? 0:45:19.120 --> 0:45:23.600 Not popular? Maybe it's a little bit stupid. People like it. 0:45:23.640 --> 0:45:27.040 And how popular is Donald Trump in Germany? Not at all. 0:45:28.719 --> 0:45:31.360 You don't understand him, you know, we don't like that 0:45:31.440 --> 0:45:31.839 kind of down. 0:45:31.880 --> 0:45:34.960 We drove from Louisiana, so you know, we wanted to 0:45:35.040 --> 0:45:37.040 see everything one see the parade. 0:45:36.800 --> 0:45:38.600 Especially giving you guys are from Florida. 0:45:38.719 --> 0:45:41.480 It's pretty bloody cold around here and the whole show 0:45:41.560 --> 0:45:42.839 is being moved indoors. 0:45:43.120 --> 0:45:45.359 Are you disappointed with all those changes? It's not because 0:45:45.400 --> 0:45:47.600 of the cold. That's not because of the cold. 0:45:47.600 --> 0:45:48.360 It's for security. 0:45:48.719 --> 0:45:53.399 Let's be honest. We all know that. We just truth. 0:45:53.520 --> 0:45:56.280 So there you go, Paul. They're going to enjoy themselves anyway. 0:45:56.320 --> 0:45:59.840 This talk about the security concerns really prompting the move in, 0:46:00.280 --> 0:46:01.920 I don't think that stacks up, certainly. 0:46:02.120 --> 0:46:02.480 None of the. 0:46:02.480 --> 0:46:04.360 Officials say that it's all about the weather. 0:46:04.160 --> 0:46:07.600 And Donald Trump himself also says it's all about the weather. 0:46:07.719 --> 0:46:09.680 It is going to be bitterly cold. 0:46:09.400 --> 0:46:11.000 And sure, if you're rugged up and got all the 0:46:11.080 --> 0:46:13.480 right gear, it'll be fine. But a lot of elderly 0:46:13.560 --> 0:46:16.439 people here and security staff and police would have to 0:46:16.440 --> 0:46:19.200 be out in that weather all day minus ten with 0:46:19.239 --> 0:46:22.960 a windshiel of maybe minus twenty. So that's why it's inside. 0:46:22.960 --> 0:46:26.399 It's changed everything. The Capitol One Arena, where I saw 0:46:26.440 --> 0:46:28.759 a basketball game a few weeks ago, well, tonight they're 0:46:28.760 --> 0:46:31.320 having an ice hockey game there. Tomorrow. 0:46:31.400 --> 0:46:35.680 Donald Trump's having his planned victory parade there or rally there. 0:46:36.000 --> 0:46:39.479 And now because the inauguration has been moved indoors, he'll 0:46:39.520 --> 0:46:43.319 have that the second day, another rally, an inauguration rally, 0:46:43.360 --> 0:46:46.160 if you like, instead of the normal parade down Pennsylvania. 0:46:46.520 --> 0:46:48.440 Haven't you before I let you go? 0:46:48.520 --> 0:46:49.200 The cease fire? 0:46:49.280 --> 0:46:51.360 Now we know this thing has been a very bumpy deal, 0:46:51.600 --> 0:46:54.880 long waited process, and as we have seen this evening, 0:46:55.000 --> 0:46:57.319 it is very very fragile. 0:46:57.560 --> 0:46:58.280 I think it's crossed. 0:46:58.280 --> 0:47:00.640 Everything gets worked out, people start to get released, and 0:47:00.800 --> 0:47:03.120 in six weeks from now the world is in a 0:47:03.120 --> 0:47:05.920 better place. Do you think any of this was possible 0:47:06.080 --> 0:47:08.880 if Trump didn't win, because we know where Biden and 0:47:08.920 --> 0:47:12.879 Harris were. They've been saying since May of earlier last year. 0:47:13.360 --> 0:47:14.520 Yeah, the thing is. 0:47:14.520 --> 0:47:18.560 That Donald Trump is reshaping the global order even before 0:47:18.600 --> 0:47:20.399 he's been inaugurated for the second time. 0:47:20.480 --> 0:47:21.800 That's absolutely clear. 0:47:21.840 --> 0:47:24.400 And yeah, we all know about the threats Donald Trump 0:47:24.400 --> 0:47:27.319 made against Hummas. Hand over the hostages or there'll be 0:47:27.560 --> 0:47:29.960 all hell will break loose. Well, there are a lot 0:47:29.960 --> 0:47:33.840 of speculation too that that pressure also worked on Benjaminette Yahoo, 0:47:33.880 --> 0:47:36.480 that the Israelis have been forced into making an agreement 0:47:36.680 --> 0:47:38.799 as well, because Trump has demanded it. 0:47:38.840 --> 0:47:41.480 But the thing is that today, just in the last. 0:47:41.239 --> 0:47:44.239 Couple of hours, Donald Trump has repeated if this deal 0:47:44.320 --> 0:47:45.160 is broken. 0:47:44.840 --> 0:47:47.479 By harmas there will be all hell to pay. 0:47:47.600 --> 0:47:49.799 So he really is putting a lot of weight on this, 0:47:49.840 --> 0:47:53.480 a lot of emphasis on this, and his new regime 0:47:53.960 --> 0:47:56.640 is committed to making it happen. But there's a lot 0:47:56.719 --> 0:47:59.319 to unfold in coming days. The one thing you've got 0:47:59.320 --> 0:48:01.480 to remember about this deal is that we all agree 0:48:01.680 --> 0:48:04.960 Hummus should be destroyed, and even the lefties agree Hummus 0:48:05.040 --> 0:48:05.520 should have. 0:48:05.520 --> 0:48:08.960 No role in the future of Gaza. But it's Hummus 0:48:08.960 --> 0:48:09.840 you're doing the deal with. 0:48:10.239 --> 0:48:12.640 So it is fraught, but Donald Trump has got it 0:48:12.680 --> 0:48:15.120 as a number one priority at the moment, there's no doubt. 0:48:15.000 --> 0:48:17.680 Or I made enjoy Mega Christmas. I wish I was there. 0:48:17.880 --> 0:48:20.200 Remember if you're getting any T shirts for me, it 0:48:20.320 --> 0:48:23.719 is a five XL. I know everyone would just think 0:48:23.760 --> 0:48:26.520 small to medium, but alas I shop at Raise. 0:48:26.320 --> 0:48:28.560 Out Doors for all my clothing needs. We'll see you 0:48:28.840 --> 0:48:31.480 on the Telly tomorrow five o'clock. That can you report 0:48:31.560 --> 0:48:32.160 live from. 0:48:32.000 --> 0:48:32.640 Washington, d C. 0:48:32.760 --> 0:48:34.680 We love you, mate, I tell you what, Mate, if 0:48:34.719 --> 0:48:37.040 we get through the week and have a success, I 0:48:37.120 --> 0:48:38.640 might even smoke a cigar for you. 0:48:39.560 --> 0:48:39.800 Ha ha. 0:48:40.200 --> 0:48:42.280 Don't promise, don't promise. 0:48:42.840 --> 0:48:45.399 Shelley's back room if you want to, though Washington, where 0:48:45.440 --> 0:48:48.279 you actually believe it or not, can do that and eat. 0:48:48.440 --> 0:48:51.200 It's a different world regardless of who was the president 0:48:51.200 --> 0:48:53.279 of the United States. Now there's been a bit of 0:48:53.280 --> 0:48:56.279 an update from what's happening in Israel. One of the 0:48:56.600 --> 0:49:00.160 ministers in Benjamin Ettina, whose government has actually resigned, and 0:49:00.200 --> 0:49:02.720 as a result of the ceasefire deal which has been put. 0:49:02.520 --> 0:49:05.000 In place, three hostages expected to. 0:49:04.960 --> 0:49:08.040 Be released between now and when Peter Stefanovic joins you 0:49:08.120 --> 0:49:11.160 again in the morning. But this now means the political 0:49:11.239 --> 0:49:15.560 situation in Israel becomes as fragile as the overall cease 0:49:15.600 --> 0:49:19.600 fire deal, which thankfully is now in place. Plenty more 0:49:19.640 --> 0:49:21.640 at this time tomorrow night. Make sure you keep your eyes, 0:49:21.640 --> 0:49:23.320 as always where they are a