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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is formally appointed as the Republican nominee for

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Speaker 1: the US election, and the points a millennial as a

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Speaker 1: running mate. Rio Tinto gets the go ahead for a

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Speaker 1: multi billion iron ore mine in Guinea, and the price

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Speaker 1: of cotton tumbles, hitting Australian ex borders as people turned

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Speaker 1: to polyester. Welcome to fear and greed. Daily business news

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Speaker 1: for people who make their own decisions. It's Wednesday, the

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Speaker 1: seventeenth of July twenty twenty four. I'm Julian King, and

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Speaker 1: good morning Sewan Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Julian Shawn.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. Donald Trump has been formally

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Speaker 1: anointed as the Republican candidate for the US election in November,

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Speaker 1: and he's picked an author, lawyer, former tech venture capitalist,

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Speaker 1: and one time anti Trumpian to be his running mate.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, sure did. Mister Trump's first public appearance since his

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Speaker 2: shooting on the weekend was toy Rapturo's applause at the

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Speaker 2: Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. A bandage covered his right ear,

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Speaker 2: which had been shot during the assassination attempt. He was

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Speaker 2: formally nominated as a Republican candidate, and it will be

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Speaker 2: mister Trump's third successive presidential campaign. The former president has

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Speaker 2: picked thirty nine year old JD. Vance as his running mate.

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Speaker 2: Mister Vance is a first term senator from Ohio, the

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Speaker 2: first millennial to run for such high public office, and

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Speaker 2: something of a clone of mister Trump, agreeing pretty much

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Speaker 2: with everything the former president proposes. He was also the

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Speaker 2: person who, after the weekend's attempted assassination, immediately blamed the

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Speaker 2: Democrats rhetoric for the shooting. It wasn't always the case.

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Speaker 2: Prior to twenty sixteen. He was very anti Trump, calling

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Speaker 2: him cultural heroine and reportedly comparing.

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Speaker 3: Him to Hitler.

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Speaker 2: His book Hill Billy Ellogy explained why working class white

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Speaker 2: voters picked mister Trump in twenty sixteen, basically recounted his

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Speaker 2: own childhood in poor parts of Ohio and Kentucky and

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Speaker 2: demonstrated just why so many people were disenchanted with what

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Speaker 2: was going on in America. Now, mister Trump can't run

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Speaker 2: again in twenty twenty eight because the US Constitution and

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Speaker 2: allows for two terms, so mister Vance's nomination is very significant.

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Speaker 2: If mister Trump wins this time around, it's more than

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Speaker 2: likely that mister Vance then becomes the Republican nominee for

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Speaker 2: president in twenty twenty eight.

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Speaker 1: That's quite the turnaround, and mister Vance seems to be

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Speaker 1: a popular pick among the tech sector, with Elon Musk

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Speaker 1: committing forty five million dollars a month to the Trump

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Speaker 1: Vance campaign.

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Speaker 2: It is a ridiculously large amount of money, far more

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Speaker 2: than anyone else has ever given. The money will go

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Speaker 2: to a new super political action committee that backs mister

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Speaker 2: Trump and mister Vance. The group's called America Pack. Some

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Speaker 2: of the other backers are interesting as well. So Planted

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Speaker 2: Technology is co founder Joe Lonsdale, a billionaire. He's in there.

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Speaker 2: The Winklevoss twins. You, Julian, I'm sure you would know them.

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Speaker 2: Listeners might remember them famous. Basically, they were rowers. They

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Speaker 2: rode together in the Olympics in two thousand eight, and

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Speaker 2: then they sued Mark Zuckerberg claiming that he stole their

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Speaker 2: idea to create Facebook. That's probably why they're most famous.

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Speaker 2: They've gone on to become business people, entrepreneurs. Anyway, they're

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Speaker 2: donating to this cause as well. Also former US Ambassador

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Speaker 2: Canada Kelly Craft and her husband Joe Craft. He's the

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Speaker 2: chief executive coal producer Alliance Resource Partners, Of course, Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump has promised to lower the corporate tax rate, so

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Speaker 2: it's not surprising that business leaders are on his side anyway.

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk is leading the way there, forty five million

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Speaker 2: US dollars a month to the Trump Advance campaign.

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Speaker 3: Sewan, How did the local markets perform yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Well, they's in PASX two hundred closed down zero point

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Speaker 2: two percent, finishing at seven nine hundred and ninety nine points.

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Speaker 2: That's after Monday's record setting session. There were decent falls

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Speaker 2: among the materials, utilities, tech, and consumer discretionary stocks, while

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Speaker 2: the property sector outperformed. Aristocrat Leisure was the biggest lag

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Speaker 2: out of the large caps, down nearly three percent, while

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Speaker 2: BHP was off one and a half per cent. That

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Speaker 2: meant Comonwealth Bank once again took the title as the

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Speaker 2: largest stock on the AX, notwithstanding it fell almost half

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Speaker 2: a percent as well. Best of the large caps yesterday

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Speaker 2: was good group. It jumped nearly two percent. It was

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Speaker 2: a wild day for Drone Shield. Now, this is the

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Speaker 2: group that provides counter drone defense solutions. We've had the

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Speaker 2: CEO on the show before. Its share price hit a

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Speaker 2: record high on opening, then fell thirty percent, recouped some

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Speaker 2: of the losses ended off about twenty four percent. Now,

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Speaker 2: there was no new news about the company, although some

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Speaker 2: investment analysts came out and doubted its valuation. Drone Shield's

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Speaker 2: share price went from thirty eight cents at the beginning

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Speaker 2: of the year to two dollars seventy one yesterday morning,

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Speaker 2: and then it tumbled to close a dollar ninety eight.

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Speaker 2: That's a pretty wild ride. Also yesterday, wealth management platform

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Speaker 2: Hub twenty four's share price closed flat after announcing stronger

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Speaker 2: than expected inflows. Its share price isn't far off double

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Speaker 2: what it was last July. And critical minerals producer Igo

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Speaker 2: were write down the value of its exploration portfolio by

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Speaker 2: up to two hundred and seventy five million dollars. That's

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Speaker 2: in relation to its nickel assets. Yet another nickel minor struggling.

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Speaker 2: That sent Ido share price down one percent and.

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Speaker 1: Shorn off the back of the local market record highs.

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Speaker 1: Immediately after this show, stay listening for your chat with

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Speaker 1: Matthew Kidman, who's a regular on the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: podcast platform from Centennial Asset Management.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, all about why the market hit a record on Monday,

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Speaker 2: what stocks did well? So we talked about small caps,

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Speaker 2: US large caps, and very importantly what's going to happen

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Speaker 2: in the future. It's a great chat with Matthew. He's

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Speaker 2: always always interesting, very knowledgeable about the market. It's a

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Speaker 2: well worth listen.

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Speaker 1: Okay, from local markets to international markets. Now, what's happening there?

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Speaker 2: Lews. Federal Reserve Chair Jerme Powell yesterday morning said that

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Speaker 2: second quarter data bolstered confidence that inflation is cooling. That

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Speaker 2: helped equity markets. Apple continues its incredible run. It's now

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Speaker 2: worth three point five nine trillion US dollars. Oil's relatively flat,

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Speaker 2: Gold's keeping higher, fetching nearly twenty four hundred and thirty

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Speaker 2: US dollars. Announced Bitcoin is worth more than sixty four

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Speaker 2: thousand US dollars a unit. Seems to be heading high

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Speaker 2: on that famous Trump trade. Cryptos do well when people

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Speaker 2: think Donald Trump is going to win.

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Speaker 3: The White House.

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Speaker 2: The ausie dollars come back a bit. It's buying sixty

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Speaker 2: seven point three US cents. And to end off this

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Speaker 2: segment of the show, I thought or two about Blackrock.

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Speaker 2: In the last quarter, Julian, the US based wealth manager,

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Speaker 2: attracted fifty one billion dollars. That's US billion dollars to

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Speaker 2: its long term investment funds. It now manages ten point

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Speaker 2: six trillion US dollars of assets. That's what it's that

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Speaker 2: fifteen trillion goodness money is it? That's so that's like

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Speaker 2: managing the whole of the Australian residential property sector plus

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Speaker 2: the superannuation sector. That's about the same value as what

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Speaker 2: it manages.

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Speaker 3: Credible, it is incredible.

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Speaker 1: And you talked about their Bitcoin plenty of enthusiasm hasn't

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Speaker 1: there been shown for cryptocurrency after mister True was announced

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Speaker 1: as the headline speaker for the Bitcoin twenty twenty four

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Speaker 1: conference later this pot.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an unusual spot for him to turn up.

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Speaker 2: You would have thought doing a campaign, But obviously he

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Speaker 2: feels he has h well fans among that crowd.

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Speaker 3: I suppose I'm sure he does.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news. Sean Rio Tinto has one final

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Speaker 1: Guinean and Chinese government approval for a mega African iron

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Speaker 1: all project and first production is slated to begin within

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Speaker 1: eighteen months.

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Speaker 2: This is a big, big deal. Simmondal is a massive

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Speaker 2: reserve with an estimated two billion tons of high grade

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Speaker 2: iron ore. It lies in the southeast of the Republic

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Speaker 2: of Guinea over a one hundred kilometer service area. Ria's

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Speaker 2: concession is a joint venture between it, Chinese state aimed

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Speaker 2: companies and the government of Guinea. Ria will spend eleven

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Speaker 2: point cerio billion US dollars that's about eighteen BILLIONAZZI dollars

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Speaker 2: on the development of the deposit and associated infrastructure. We're

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Speaker 2: not just talking getting the awe out of the mine.

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Speaker 2: We're also talking about developing six hundred kilometers of rail

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Speaker 2: infrastructure spanning the length of the country, as well as

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Speaker 2: port infrastructure. The deposit will broaden rare as iron ore

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Speaker 2: portfolio beyond Australia and Canada. It will also open a

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Speaker 2: whole new area of iron ore development. At the moment,

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Speaker 2: Australia and Brazil are the main leaders. The size of

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Speaker 2: this in Guinea suggests that that country could well become

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Speaker 2: a major iron ore export. The announcement came as Ria

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Speaker 2: confirmed that a train derailment had hampered exports last quarter

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Speaker 2: that new Centrio's share price down more than two percent.

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Speaker 1: The national head of the CFMBU had described former Victoria

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Speaker 1: branch boss John Setka as a man with integrity and

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Speaker 1: credibility and says there's no need for an independent inquiry

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Speaker 1: into evidence of criminal links in the construction industry.

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Speaker 2: Zach Smith said the inquiry wasn't necessary because the union

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Speaker 2: can take care of itself. He said he doesn't believe

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Speaker 2: any construction deal with the government had been achieved through corruption.

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Speaker 2: He told ABC Radio and I quit the union movement

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Speaker 2: is more than capable of dealing with allegations in their

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Speaker 2: own ranks and responding appropriately. External administration and further intervention

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Speaker 2: from government isn't necessary. Talk about a ten year of course.

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Speaker 2: Nine media over the weekend reported that Biki gans had

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Speaker 2: infiltrated the CFMEU. Mister Setka quit last Friday. Now last

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Speaker 2: night the Ciney Morning Herald was reporting that the Federal

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Speaker 2: government is preparing to appoint an independent administrator to overhaul

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Speaker 2: the CFMEU and clamp down on criminal elements within its ranks,

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Speaker 2: amid growing concerns about the damage from the unlawful conduct

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Speaker 2: massive building projects in recent months.

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Speaker 1: It's an issue that's not going away now. The boss

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Speaker 1: of the Australian Energy Market Operator, Daniel Westerman, says the

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Speaker 1: oppositions planned to build seven nuclear The actors would take

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Speaker 1: too long to replace aging coal generators.

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Speaker 2: Mister Westerman, speaking at a clean energy summit, also said

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Speaker 2: gas is the ultimate backstop during the transition to renewables.

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Speaker 2: He said it's imperative to replace the retiring coal stations

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Speaker 2: as upon us now and even on the most optimistic outlook,

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Speaker 2: nuclear power won't be ready in time. Under Opposition leader

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Speaker 2: Peter Dutton's plans if he wins the next election, he'll

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Speaker 2: build five large scale nuclear plants, too smaller ones, with

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Speaker 2: the first to come online about twenty thirty five. They'd

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Speaker 2: be built on the sites of current coal five power stations.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: At the moment, coal fire power accounts for more than

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Speaker 2: fifty percent of power generation in the national electricity market.

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Speaker 2: You are not going to be able to replace that

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Speaker 2: in time if you rely on nuclear. That's the gist

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Speaker 2: of what he said. Gas, of course everyone's talking about.

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Speaker 2: Gas at the moment only accounts for about five percent

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Speaker 2: of power generation in the national electricity market, but it

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Speaker 2: is a very reliable source of supply of electricity and

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Speaker 2: mister Westerman says it will actually be the backstop over

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Speaker 2: the next couple of decades.

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Speaker 1: And something that Australia has in abundance tooiore absolutely am.

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Speaker 1: CSL has one contracts to supply avian flu vaccinations to

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Speaker 1: Europe and the US as companies ramp up preparations for

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Speaker 1: the dangerous virus.

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Speaker 2: CESL supplying the US government with four point eight million

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Speaker 2: vials and the European Union has ordered six hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty shots, with an option for a further forty million now.

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Speaker 2: Last month, Finland ordered twenty thousand viles, enough to vaccinate

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Speaker 2: ten thousand fur and poultry workers. CSL said governments around

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Speaker 2: the world preparing for a potential outbreak of the H

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Speaker 2: five N one avian flu virus. CSL's vaccines are pre pandemic.

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Speaker 2: That means they can be rolled out to high risk

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Speaker 2: groups like poultry and dairy workers, lab staff and healthcare

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Speaker 2: workers ahead of time to hopefully prevent an outbreak.

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Speaker 1: Transurban has six months to renegotiate tolling contracts on almost

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Speaker 1: a dozen motorways it operates in Sydney or have them

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Speaker 1: restructured after an independent review recommended the new South Wales

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Speaker 1: government take back control and reduce bills for drivers.

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Speaker 2: The review, led by former Competition Commission Chair Alan Fels,

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Speaker 2: found a new regime should replace separate tolls on the motorways,

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Speaker 2: with the changes reducing the amount paid by drivers predominantly

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Speaker 2: in Sydney's West. According to report in the AFR, this,

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Speaker 2: if it happened, would be a major overhaul of tolling

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Speaker 2: in that city. The shortfall in the toiling would be

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Speaker 2: partly funded by the government, while most toll release schemes

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Speaker 2: should also be scrapped. Review found drivers in Sydney's North

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Speaker 2: and East, largely coalition electorates, would pay much more, though

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Speaker 2: through two way tolling on the Harbor Bridge, Harbor Tunnel

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Speaker 2: and Eastern Distributor. Transurban has told the government's willing to

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Speaker 2: discuss new arrangements, but it wants to be compensated for that.

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Speaker 2: The company has suggested its contracts could be changed by

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Speaker 2: the end of next year.

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Speaker 1: Tolling is a thorn in the proverbial side of Sydney

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Speaker 1: motorsts and has been for over a decade now. In

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Speaker 1: international news, China's manufacturing sector grew faster than the overall

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Speaker 1: economy for a third quarter in a row, demonstrating that

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Speaker 1: industry and exports, rather than property, shaun a driving growth

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Speaker 1: in the world's second largest economy.

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Speaker 2: Manufacturing expanded six point two percent last quarter, faster than

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Speaker 2: the four point seven percent overall growth rate in the economy.

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Speaker 2: Manufacturing contributed about twenty seven percent of total activity, according

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Speaker 2: to Bloomberg. The strength contrasts with the shrinking real estate sector,

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Speaker 2: which contracted for a fifth quarter in a row. Beijing

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Speaker 2: has in recent years emphasized investing in high tech manufacturing

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Speaker 2: to drive growth, especially after try to reduce financial risk

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Speaker 2: in the economy by puncturing the housing bubble. That's helped

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Speaker 2: boost production and exports of goods like electric cars, batteries

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Speaker 2: and semiconductors, but it hasn't really led to a rebound

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Speaker 2: in domestic consumption yet. That's what Beijing needs to work

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Speaker 2: on now.

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Speaker 1: Oil exploration is not dead, with exce on Mobile planning

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Speaker 1: to drill up to thirty wells as part of its

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Speaker 1: seventh oil project in Guyana.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that really surprised me that so much drilling is

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Speaker 2: going on. The project, which is pending government approval, would

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Speaker 2: start production in twenty twenty nine, lifting Guiana's capacity to

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Speaker 2: more than one point four million barrels of oil per day.

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Speaker 2: According to Reuters, The Hammerhead project will pump as much

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Speaker 2: as one hundred and eighty thousand barrels a day as

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Speaker 2: soon as twenty twenty nine. Guiana is a growing oil resource,

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Speaker 2: outputs expected to jump twenty five percent over the next

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Speaker 2: five years. It just highlights that oil drilling is alive

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Speaker 2: and well. In fact, it's increasing. In the US alone,

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Speaker 2: the number of wells drilled has been trending higher ever

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Speaker 2: since twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 3: That's intriguing now.

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Speaker 1: The price of cotton has tumbled as growing competition between

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Speaker 1: the world's biggest producers drives up supply, while cost conscious

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Speaker 1: shoppers seek out clothes made out of cheaper fabrics.

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Speaker 2: So ICE cotton futures, ICE being the Intercontinental exchange where

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Speaker 2: you trade cotton futures, fell below sixty nine new sense

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Speaker 2: of pound this month, and that's the lowest level since

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Speaker 2: October twenty twenty, less than half the ten year peak

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Speaker 2: hid in May twenty twenty two. There's a couple of

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Speaker 2: reasons for this. Prices have dropped because of a sharp

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Speaker 2: rise in production in Brazil, which recently overtook the US

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Speaker 2: as the world's largest cotton exporter. The South American country

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Speaker 2: exported twelve point four million bales in the twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: three to twenty four harvest season eleven point eight came

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Speaker 2: from the US. Why are we so interested because Australia

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Speaker 2: is the third biggest exporter of cotton. We shipped about

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Speaker 2: five point eight million bales in that season. While Brazil's

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Speaker 2: ramped up production, demand has dropped, particularly since the pandemic.

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Speaker 2: The economics slow down and rising interest rates a squeeze consumers.

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Speaker 2: We know that the demand for polyoester has jumped and

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Speaker 2: other men made fabrics, but cotton it's slumped. So what

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Speaker 2: we're seeing is both on the demand and supply side,

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Speaker 2: things been crunched and the price of cotton tumbling.

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Speaker 1: George from Seinfeld, I'll always maintain sure on that cotton

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Speaker 1: is king.

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Speaker 2: What I was thinking more was the comment from Jerry

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Speaker 2: to Kramer about the millimeters of polyester between.

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Speaker 3: Of the thin layer of gaberdine.

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Speaker 2: Was that what it was that the mayor of Gaberdine? Yes, yes,

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Speaker 2: I might leave that there.

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Speaker 1: Actually, I'm sure there's much gaberdine production in Brazil. Up

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Speaker 1: next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview with Matthew Kidman,

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Speaker 1: principal at Centennial Asset Management.

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Speaker 2: We speak to Matthew about why the AX topped eight

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Speaker 2: thousand points this week, setting a new record high, and

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Speaker 2: what is going to happen next. Great chat with Matthew

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Speaker 2: as always.

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Speaker 1: That's up next in the Fear and Greed playlist on

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Speaker 1: your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Sewan, Thank you actually dueling. Before I go,

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Speaker 2: I just have to give a quick plug to our newsletter.

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Speaker 2: It's out about eleven thirty this morning. We'll about eleven

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Speaker 2: forty five, probably straight after the employment numbers are released.

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Speaker 2: We'll put something out basically our news and views on

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Speaker 2: what's going on in the economy, give some talk to

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Speaker 2: what's happening in the markets, employment, Donald Trump, stuff like that.

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Speaker 2: You can still sign up for it. Fearangreen dot com

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Speaker 2: dot au is the place to do it. If you've

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Speaker 2: done that by about eleven o'clock this morning, you'll get

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Speaker 2: this morning's newsletter.

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Speaker 3: Yep, it's great content.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the seventeenth of July twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast. Join us online at LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: ex TikTok, and Facebook. Have a great day.