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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news. You can use

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Speaker 1: today's cigarettes and vapes cause the federal government budget, health

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Speaker 1: and crime headaches, household spending surges, and the federal government

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Speaker 1: concedes it won't hit its target for one point two

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Speaker 1: million homes by the end of the decade. Plus, Spotify

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Speaker 1: releases its most played artists and songs, and Ossie tourists

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Speaker 1: favorite Thailand relaxes rules around alcohol. It is Friday, the

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Speaker 1: fifth of December twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson. And

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Speaker 1: that's quite a mixed bag, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: That's quite mixed bag. Sewan Aylmer. That's it a very

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Speaker 2: mixed show, a mixed bag of a show. Michael.

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Speaker 1: It really is something for everyone today. The main story

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Speaker 1: this morning, Sean, the federal government has run into an

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Speaker 1: economic dilemma when it comes to tobacco sales. They've been

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Speaker 1: taxed so much, so heavily, that the illegal market has surged,

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Speaker 1: and that's hurting legitimate retailers. At the same time, cigarettes

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Speaker 1: are so available and so cheap on the black market.

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Speaker 1: The fear is that smoking rates, which the government's been

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Speaker 1: working hard to get lower over a long period of

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Speaker 1: time will actually rise.

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Speaker 2: Legal cigarette and tobacco sales fell twenty nine percent in

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Speaker 2: the year through to the end of September, according to

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Speaker 2: the Bureau Statistics. Now, a bunch of retailers, including IgA, Slash,

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Speaker 2: Met Cash, Woolli's Coal's mpole Viva Energy, which runs Shell,

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Speaker 2: they've talked about falling revenue from tobacco sales. Illegal tobacco

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Speaker 2: sales are surging, with convenience stores selling a pack of

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Speaker 2: twenty five cigarettes for as little as sixteen dollars compared

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Speaker 2: to a retail price of fifty dollars. Now, of that

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Speaker 2: fifty dollars, thirty four dollars a goes in taxes. A

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Speaker 2: report by the Center for Independent Studies says the federal

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Speaker 2: government's tobacco tax has reached the point of diminishing returns.

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Speaker 2: Rising excise rates, rather than diminishing demand, actually has incentivized

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Speaker 2: illicit supply. Now, the federal government's tobacco excis revenue has

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Speaker 2: more than half since twenty nineteen twenty. It's forecast to

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Speaker 2: continue to climb. You think that's a good thing. You

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Speaker 2: would hope that was a good thing, But the problem

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Speaker 2: is it's now got this black market absolutely humming.

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Speaker 1: And even more concerning, i'd say, is the instances of

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Speaker 1: smoking among young Australians as rising.

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Speaker 2: Yes so, Roy Morgan. Data released earlier in the year

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Speaker 2: showed seventeen point four percent of Australians aged eighteen and

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Speaker 2: over smoked or vaped, similar to levels a deco ago. However,

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Speaker 2: the number of younger Australians aged eighteen to twenty four

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Speaker 2: smoking or vaping had risen to twenty seven point eight percent,

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Speaker 2: according to the Finn Review. There's also the problem of

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Speaker 2: crime that comes alongside legal sales. There have been fire

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Speaker 2: bombings in Victoria, where rival gangs have fought for control

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Speaker 2: over the trade. In New South Wales and South Australia,

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Speaker 2: governments have introduced tough new penalties for selling illegal tobacco,

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Speaker 2: but the problem remains now. Australian Federal Police Commissioner Chrissy

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Speaker 2: Barrett was in Senate estimates this week. She said authorities

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Speaker 2: had seized thirty three million dollars in proceeds from crime

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Speaker 2: linked tobacco since June. Five point eight million cigarettes were

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Speaker 2: seized in July. Eighty four thousand faipes was seized in July.

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Speaker 2: Spending on cigarettes and tobacco in Australia. This is the

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Speaker 2: legal side of it. Peaked in nineteen eighty one, they

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Speaker 2: spent about ninety eight billion dollars in today's dollars, found

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Speaker 2: about fifteen billion in the legal tobacco market. Now we

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Speaker 2: have a target of less than five percent of the

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Speaker 2: population smoking by twenty thirty about eight five percent now, however,

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Speaker 2: we're just not getting there. And it is the number

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Speaker 2: one cause of deaths in middle aged Australians. It's responsible

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Speaker 2: for sixty six Australians dying a day, twenty four thousand

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Speaker 2: people annually, the leading cause of preventable death in Australia.

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Speaker 2: This is a tax policy that has well and truly

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Speaker 2: outlived its usefulness.

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Speaker 1: And a wonder kind of is the solution if not

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Speaker 1: to change the taxation side of it, is it a

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Speaker 1: greater crackdown because on borders, for instance, because a very

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Speaker 1: large percentage of it is being imported illegally, only a

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Speaker 1: small percentage is actually been grown domestically and manufactured here.

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Speaker 1: A lot of it is coming in somehow from overseas. Yes,

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Speaker 1: it's a very difficult thing to stop that.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so a lot of it's from China, in the

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Speaker 2: Middle East, the United Arab Emirates seems to be the

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Speaker 2: source of much of it. It's a supply and demand problem.

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Speaker 2: You really have to reduce demand. Supply is really hard

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Speaker 2: to stop, but reducing demand. And remember many years ago

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Speaker 2: there were advertisements which did a great job in lowering smoking,

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Speaker 2: just told you how dreadful smoking was for you. And

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Speaker 2: we sort of see it now for road accidents. We

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Speaker 2: don't see it for smoking so much much. But what

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Speaker 2: those ads did was actually reduced demand. And this is

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Speaker 2: really a demand side problem.

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Speaker 1: And the other side of that is the fact that

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Speaker 1: all those warnings they are not on the illegal cigarettes,

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Speaker 1: and particularly with the individual warnings printed on individual cigarettes now,

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Speaker 1: so it is very much in your face and it

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Speaker 1: is not present on the illicit tobacco. So anyway, we're

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Speaker 1: not going to solve it here, Sean, but it is

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Speaker 1: a fascinating and worrying story. The ASX how did we

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Speaker 1: go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: As a PASX two hundred closed up a bit zero

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Speaker 2: point three percent. The material sector did best, Property companies

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Speaker 2: were worst, b HP and really Tinto were strong performers.

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Speaker 2: More on that, surely, says l joined. AUP jumped a

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Speaker 2: couple of percent, while all the major banks were higher

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Speaker 2: worst for the major caps, with gold digger Northern Star

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Speaker 2: down nearly four percent and Goodman Group which was off

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Speaker 2: about two and a half percent.

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Speaker 1: Describing Northern Star as a gold digger always just sounds

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Speaker 1: a little bit, a little bit like you're having a

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Speaker 1: crack at it. You mentioned that we're going to get

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Speaker 1: into copper a little bit later, let's do it now.

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Speaker 1: The price of copper hit a new high, sending the

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Speaker 1: share prices of BHP where Tinto and a bunch of

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Speaker 1: other copper miners higher.

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Speaker 2: Copper is a bellweather commodity. Normally, a high copper price

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Speaker 2: means global economic confidence is pretty strong at the moment. However,

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Speaker 2: there are concerns about a tightening global supply. Now. One

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Speaker 2: of the big copper copper producers is Glencore. It's cut

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Speaker 2: its near term output target. Everyone wants copper at the

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Speaker 2: moment because we use it in electronics and electric vehicles,

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Speaker 2: that type of thing. So the fact that one of

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Speaker 2: the big producers cutting its term output target has helped

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Speaker 2: push up the price to almost eleven five hundred US

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Speaker 2: dollars a ton, that's about thirty percent higher than where

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Speaker 2: they started this year. That has really been pushing South

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Speaker 2: thirty to Sandfaire Resources some of those stocks on the

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Speaker 2: local market. BHP has been a big beneficiary in the

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Speaker 2: last week BEUCHP or last five trading days. Bachp's up

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Speaker 2: ten percent, read Tintas up nine percent, really driving those

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Speaker 2: big miners at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Indeed, up next Sean. Obviously we've still got plenty

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Speaker 1: more show to get through. Only part way through the

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Speaker 1: mixed bag. But up after the show is Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed Q and A. Andrew Dale from ECP Management is

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Speaker 1: your guest today.

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Speaker 2: Yes, So we're talking about the big four banks and

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Speaker 2: basically I ask Andrew which is the best one to

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Speaker 2: invest in? And he goes through the big four banks.

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Speaker 2: Plus more is what I'd say, plus more.

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Speaker 1: Plus more, Yeah, ECP Asset Management. That's coming up after

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Speaker 1: the show. Stick around for that one. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business

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Speaker 1: news sewn. Australian household spending jumped one point three percent

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Speaker 1: in October, twice as much as expected by economists, suggesting

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Speaker 1: consumers are in fact out there spending. It looks like

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Speaker 1: at the house this whole spending indicator from the Bureau

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Speaker 1: Statistics replaces the retail sales figure.

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Speaker 2: It's new, a little bit volatile, but this is a

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Speaker 2: big jump even with that volatility, and you'll growth search

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Speaker 2: to five point six percent. The historical average is about

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Speaker 2: four and a half percent. Sales and promotional periods drove

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Speaker 2: the rise. The biggest increase was in consumer good spending

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Speaker 2: stuff like clothing, footwear, furniture. What I reckon this says

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Speaker 2: is that people are just getting smarter about how they shop. So,

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Speaker 2: for example, many of this year's Black Friday sales began

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Speaker 2: in October and the month cord here. People are waiting

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Speaker 2: for sales. They know there's going to be periods where

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Speaker 2: you can get stuff cheaper. That's certainly our households like that,

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Speaker 2: and they're waiting for it.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: That stuffs up the seasonal adjustment and might take a

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Speaker 2: little while for this new series to work out. What

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Speaker 2: it does mean is that the economy is picking up,

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Speaker 2: and it's unlikely the Reserve Bank will be enthused about

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Speaker 2: cutting rates on the back of these numbers.

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Speaker 1: At least yeah and the Reserve Bank Board meets next week,

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Speaker 1: most economists expect no change to the official cash rate,

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Speaker 1: and according to bond markets, the following meeting, which is

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Speaker 1: in February, could result in a rate increase.

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Speaker 2: It isn't the central case scenario, but bond markets have

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Speaker 2: priced in a twelve percent possibility of a rate rise

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Speaker 2: in February one hundred percent chance of a rate increase

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Speaker 2: sometime next year. Okay.

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Speaker 1: Defense Minister Richard Miles says he has received the Pentagon's

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Speaker 1: review into Orcus and the US is completely supportive of

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Speaker 1: the project.

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Speaker 2: He sounds like Donald Trump. To the UJ last evening,

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Speaker 2: Miles who of course is acting PM at the moment, said,

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Speaker 2: we're working through the Orchest review and we very much

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Speaker 2: think the United States for providing it to us. What's

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Speaker 2: really important here is the United States is completely supportive

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Speaker 2: of UCAS, as the President of the United States made clear,

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Speaker 2: and all of us moving ahead in his words, or

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Speaker 2: so all of us are moving ahead, in his words,

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Speaker 2: full steam. He does sound like Donald Trump. News that

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Speaker 2: the Pentagon had launched a review in July prompted speculation

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Speaker 2: that the White House coulled jettison Orcus. Those views dissipated

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Speaker 2: after Prime Mini strength in the Albanize his visit to Washington,

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Speaker 2: d C. In October at that time, Trump gave pretty

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Speaker 2: full sighted support to ucas.

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Speaker 1: You know, it wouldn't surprise me if more politicians end

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Speaker 1: up sounding like Donald Trump because he is such an

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Speaker 1: influential commentator, communicator, that's an effective communicator. Oh yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 1: And what he does, he speaks, he cuts through. It

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Speaker 1: wouldn't surprise me if that does actually start popping up

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Speaker 1: in politicians on both sides. The federal government has conceded, surprise, surprise,

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Speaker 1: it is unlikely to reach its ambition of building one

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Speaker 1: point two million homes before the end of the decade,

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Speaker 1: and only two states are likely to reach their targets

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Speaker 1: for new houses.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I mean, I rate that, but it's really the

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Speaker 2: bureaucracy of the federal government and some pretty important people.

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Speaker 2: In fact, the two most important economic bureaucrats are saying it.

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Speaker 2: Head of Treasury Jenny Wilkinson said building one point two

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Speaker 2: million homes by the end of twenty twenty nine would

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Speaker 2: be challenging now. On Wednesday, Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock

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Speaker 2: said the country will likely miss its housing targets at

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Speaker 2: Senate estimates. Wilkinson was asked whether the governments push that

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Speaker 2: sorry the government's five percent deposit scheme would drive up

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Speaker 2: prices only a little bit, she obfiscated, said a good word. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: She basically said, housing difficult to model. She thought there

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Speaker 2: would be a small positive impact over the medium term,

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Speaker 2: but you know, it's hard to know. Blah blah blah.

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Speaker 2: Sounded like an economist and a bureaucrat all in one, which,

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Speaker 2: of course Jenny Wilkinson is in a very impressive one.

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Speaker 1: One point two million homes was always very optimistic goal, though, wasn't.

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Speaker 2: It well, to be honest, if three levels of government

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Speaker 2: got into line and so local government didn't have all

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Speaker 2: this red tape to get through, and that's happened in

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Speaker 2: some states. You're looking at me, going come on with

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Speaker 2: me on this.

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Speaker 1: No, no, already you're talking about the impossible. You're talking

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Speaker 1: about three levels of government into line. They're going to happen.

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Speaker 2: Fair point.

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Speaker 1: Still, in politics, the Opposition of criticizing the government over

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Speaker 1: a meeting between Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke and an

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Speaker 1: advocacy group pushing to repatriate Australian isis brides.

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Speaker 2: Acting PM Richard Marles has maintained the government did not

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Speaker 2: engage in the repatriation of vices Brides beyond what was

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Speaker 2: legally required. He was commenting after reports of Burke held

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Speaker 2: secret talks with advacy group Save the Children ahead of

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Speaker 2: vices Brides being repatriated to Australia minutes of the talk

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Speaker 2: show that Burke declined to provide formal assistance to Australians

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Speaker 2: stranded in Northern Syria. Sounds a little bit like a

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Speaker 2: storman a teacup that one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's the end of the year, Shana rapidly approaching,

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Speaker 1: which means we get all these reports showing what people

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Speaker 1: buy and eat and say, and what they're listening to

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Speaker 1: all of these things. Spotify was up yesterday. It released

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Speaker 1: its top streaming tracks and unsurprisingly, I suppose overseas musicians.

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Speaker 2: Led the way number one. Michael have a guess that's it.

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Speaker 2: It's got to be Taylor Swift, right, It's got to

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Speaker 2: be Taylor Swift, then Drake, then Morgan Wollen. Never heard

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Speaker 2: of Morgan Wollan the Weekend and Billie Eilish The Weekend.

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Speaker 2: I definitely have heard because I bought my daughter tickets

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Speaker 2: for the weekend and it was canceled.

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Speaker 1: So positive experience for you all.

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Speaker 2: I love that. I didn't make it to the country.

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Speaker 1: So you weren't even sure whether Morgan Wollan is a

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Speaker 1: man or a woman.

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Speaker 2: No, I'm starting to talk about without pronouns here because

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Speaker 2: I don't know who morgan.

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Speaker 1: As a gentleman a country singer, right, Okay, I might

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Speaker 1: have gone too far. I don't know that at all.

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Speaker 1: I just googled Morgan Wollan very quickly, trying to show

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Speaker 1: you up on my pop culture knowledge.

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Speaker 2: Well, the next thing, the most streamed track between January

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Speaker 2: one and the mid November cutoff was Ordinary. That's the

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Speaker 2: name of the song by Alex Warren. Thought Alex Warren Ordinary,

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Speaker 2: So I kicked it out. Never heard song, never heard

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Speaker 2: of the person.

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Speaker 1: Really, Okay, okay, stop. You and I work in the

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Speaker 1: Nova studios. Every day we sit there. That song is

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Speaker 1: on all the time the time, all the time you

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Speaker 1: are in your own world.

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Speaker 2: Half time focused on Fear and Greed. I actually had

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Speaker 2: a couple of texts yesterday. I had my nephew text me,

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Speaker 2: and he runs it. He runs a little business and

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Speaker 2: he's number one podcast listing was Fear and Greed, which

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Speaker 2: I thought was pretty cool.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we had a couple of listeners yesterday tag us

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Speaker 1: in post on Instagram. So if you are one of

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Speaker 1: these people who has Fear and Greed appearing very highly

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Speaker 1: on your Spotify raps, then please post it online and

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Speaker 1: tag us. We would love to see that.

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Speaker 2: That's great, just quickly. Top Australian artist The Wiggles okay,

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Speaker 2: followed by kid Leroy, Top Aussie song rip, tied by

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Speaker 2: Van Story. Let's like twenty years old and the Wiggles

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Speaker 2: are like fifty years old. Anyway, personally, I got my list.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, one hundred and ninety one genres of music.

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Speaker 2: Kind of happy about that.

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Speaker 1: That's very mixed, hm.

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Speaker 2: Anyway, I think this is a sort of weekend edition topic. Yeah. Cool.

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Speaker 2: Oh can you imagine Adam. He'd be all over it.

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Speaker 1: He will have such an eclectic mix. Anyway, let's let's

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Speaker 1: bring it up on the weekend.

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Speaker 2: Great call.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news, now Sean, the path ahead for

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Speaker 1: Ukraine peace talks is unclear, US President Donald Trump said

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Speaker 1: yesterday after what he called reasonably good talks between Russian

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Speaker 1: President Vladimir Putin and US envoys.

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Speaker 2: The Kremlin said that Putin accepted some US proposals aimed

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Speaker 2: at ending the war in Ukraine and was prepared to

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Speaker 2: keep working to find a compromise. US special envoys Steve

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Speaker 2: Witkoff and Trump advisor and son in LAWA. Jared Kushner

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Speaker 2: spent hours at the Tremlin. They at the Tremblin at

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Speaker 2: the Kremlin. They I'd be tremblin if Kremlin, I got

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Speaker 2: to tell you. They departed with no specific breakthrough on

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Speaker 2: ending the war. Afterwards, Trump said, I, quote, what comes

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Speaker 2: out of that meeting, I can't tell you because it

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Speaker 2: does take to who to tango. I'm not quite sure

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Speaker 2: what he meant there. Then he added, we have some

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Speaker 2: pretty well worked out stuff with Ukraine, is what he's

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Speaker 2: talking about there. So maybe the Russian Russians aren't tangoing,

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Speaker 2: so to speak.

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Speaker 1: All right, One last one Thailand. Sean has temporarily lifted

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Speaker 1: a decades old ban on the sale of alcoholic drinks

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Speaker 1: in the afternoons as it seeks to boost tourism.

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Speaker 2: So this is a surprise. I've been to Thailand for holidays.

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Speaker 2: I've never noticed the band.

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Speaker 1: I was going to say the same thing. I've been there,

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Speaker 1: never realized I didn't want to say anything at risk

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Speaker 1: of being culturally insensitive. Just that, but you just blame

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Speaker 1: it straight.

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Speaker 2: Through it absolutely licostores, restaurants and another accredited establishments and

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Speaker 2: that can now sell beer, wine and spirits from two

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Speaker 2: till five pm as part of a six month trial.

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Speaker 2: Maybe that's because Michael, you and I we don't drink

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Speaker 2: in the afternoon. Maybe were respectable that couldn't be in

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Speaker 2: The band, which came into forces in nineteen seventy two,

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Speaker 2: is primarily introduced to stop government employees from drinking during

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Speaker 2: work hours. It's easy a way to do that, but

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Speaker 2: it's long long vexed visitors the predominantly Buddhist country, which

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Speaker 2: is also known very much for its party scene. The

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Speaker 2: move comes to stay ahead of Christmas in the New

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Speaker 2: Year holiday period, both peak seasons for tourist arrivals.

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Speaker 1: Okay up next to Fear and Greed Q and A.

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Speaker 1: As we mentioned before Andrew Dale from ecp Asset Management,

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Speaker 1: it is coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot Com DoD au,

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Speaker 1: which is also we sign up for the free daily newsletter.

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Speaker 2: Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Friday, the fifth of December twenty twenty five. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was

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Speaker 1: fear and greed. Have a great day.