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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: With less than two weeks to go until the end

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Speaker 1: of the year, small caps have significantly outperformed large caps

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. Prime Minister Anthony Alberinezi accepts some

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Speaker 1: blame for the Bondai massacre, and the boss of Woodside

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Speaker 1: Energy poached to run BP globally, plus YouTube to broadcast

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Speaker 1: the oscars and a rare adoption in the polar bear community.

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Speaker 1: It is Friday, the nineteenth of December twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Ale.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael Sewan.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. With less than two weeks

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Speaker 1: to go before the end of the year, small caps

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Speaker 1: have outperformed their large counterparts, with gold companies leading the

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Speaker 1: way of the major indices on the AX. Only the

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Speaker 1: Tech index went backwards, but the next worst performing was

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Speaker 1: the top twenty companies.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, after several years of promise, it's a year for

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Speaker 2: smaller companies, with the ASEX two hundred Resources Index, which

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Speaker 2: has a very large number of small stocks on it,

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Speaker 2: up twenty seven percent in twenty twenty five, overaw the

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Speaker 2: ASEX Small Ordinaries index was up eighteen percent, whereas the

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Speaker 2: ASX twenty ie the top twenty stocks, it rose just

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Speaker 2: two percent. The ASX two hundred was five percent. That's

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Speaker 2: across all of them, because the was up five percent.

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Speaker 2: Because the industries are weighted by market cap, the larger

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Speaker 2: stocks have a far greater influence on the course than

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Speaker 2: the smaller caps. But broadly, Michael, the smaller stock was

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five, the better it performed on average.

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Speaker 2: So the ASEX three hundred did better than the two hundred,

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Speaker 2: which did better than the one hundred, which did better

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Speaker 2: than the fifty, which did better than the twenty. No

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Speaker 2: big part of the reason for the outperformance is commodities.

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Speaker 2: It is an only behp Rio Tintom fortest few medals

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Speaker 2: that have done well in recent times. The resource juniors

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Speaker 2: and explorers have generally outperformed. Seventeen of the top twenty

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Speaker 2: performing stocks over the past year are mining related, and

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Speaker 2: less even of those seventeen are gold miners.

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Speaker 1: Yes, but there must be more to it than just

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Speaker 1: commodity prices, right, because you've got companies like Eagles Automotive

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Speaker 1: Tab Corp. A two milk that's not a commodity property. Well,

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Speaker 1: I suppose milk is a soft commodity business. Yes, yes,

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Speaker 1: Property Group, Charter Hall, Annuities, and fund manager Challenger, they're

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Speaker 1: all up fifty percent or more than twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Did you just say milk is a commodity for babies?

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Speaker 2: Well, a milk does powdered milk.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know it, Just it feels like you are

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Speaker 1: specifically pointing out this is just a baby commodity.

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Speaker 2: I like that. Yes, I mean there is. I mean

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Speaker 2: some have got specific stock issues of the two hundred

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Speaker 2: drane shields up nearly three hundred percent this year, and

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Speaker 2: there's lots of wars going on involving draints and that's

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Speaker 2: why that's up so well. Shipbuild Ostel has nearly doubled

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Speaker 2: in size thanks to foreign investors buying in so take

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Speaker 2: over pushing that one. But broadly, smaller companies tend to

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Speaker 2: do better in lower interest rate environments. We have had

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Speaker 2: three rate cuts this year, both because they're often sicklical stocks,

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Speaker 2: also because many of them carry lots of debt, and

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Speaker 2: of course when interest rates go down, their debt bills

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Speaker 2: go down. Also, large caps have run so hard, or

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Speaker 2: they had run so hard. Small caps have been looking

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Speaker 2: relatively cheap quite a while. On the ASEX, some of

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Speaker 2: the biggest stocks have had with really large waiting. If

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Speaker 2: they don't do well, then it drags down the whole index.

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Speaker 2: So you can throw Commonwealth Banks, CSL, Macquarie, Goodman Group,

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Speaker 2: Woodside Energy, Aristocrat, Leisure, all top twenty stocks that went

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Speaker 2: backwards over the last year.

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Speaker 1: It hasn't been a great year for some other asset

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Speaker 1: classes either. Bitcoin, for example, that will end lower than

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Speaker 1: where it started the year, having jumped nearly thirty percent

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Speaker 1: then fallen more than thirty percent.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I think you said in the afternoon report yesterday

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Speaker 2: that it's only the fourth year, is it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, the only the fourth year since Bitcoin's been

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Speaker 1: around that it will have a negative year.

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Speaker 2: Ethereum's also down, as is cart DOWNO. The Ausie dollars

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Speaker 2: had a dull year. It did tumble below sixty US

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Speaker 2: cents in April briefly, but really it started the year

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Speaker 2: around sixty two to sixty three usns finished around sixty

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Speaker 2: six US sense. That's like a five percent shift. Ain't

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Speaker 2: much going on there. Gold has sword. We know that

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Speaker 2: oil has fallen. All important iron oil prices been pretty

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Speaker 2: in factor. It's held up relatively well as far as.

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Speaker 1: The Aussie dollar. I know we mock it for just

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Speaker 1: being super stable, but for a currency, is stability a

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Speaker 1: good thing like that because at least kind of everyone

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Speaker 1: on both sides knows what they're going to get.

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Speaker 2: Broadly, I mean, it's just like the currency is just

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Speaker 2: a price you buy and sell goods from a country,

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Speaker 2: just like a price of chocolate, you know, and you

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Speaker 2: have sales on and you have higher prices. So it's

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Speaker 2: kind of neither good nor bad. Yeah, it just acts

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Speaker 2: as a shock absorber, yeah, okay, and selling all right,

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Speaker 2: local market.

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Speaker 1: I mean, these are all big picture things. It the

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Speaker 1: whole year. Just tell us about yesterday.

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Speaker 2: What happened yesterday, very exciting day. Michael closed flat eight thousand,

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Speaker 2: five hundred and eighty eight points worse than the market,

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Speaker 2: with the energy and utilities in deceased, best consumer staples.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi sean yesterday he accepted responsibility for

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Speaker 1: what happened at Bondai Beach last weekend as Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: of Australia, but he also called for the nation to

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Speaker 1: be united. In the aftermath of the massacre.

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister is coming under intense fire, mostly for

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Speaker 2: not doing enough to combat anti Semitism. Yesterday, the government

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Speaker 2: said it was moving to shift the threshold of hate

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Speaker 2: speech laws in an effort to capture people spreading hate,

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Speaker 2: division and radicalization, including preachers and leaders who promote violence.

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Speaker 2: It also announced that Business Joy and David Gonsky will

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Speaker 2: lead a twelve month task force to ensure the training

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Speaker 2: education system prevents, tackles and properly responds to anti Semitism.

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Speaker 2: The governments also resisted calls for a Royal commission into

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Speaker 2: the terror attack. Meanwhile, funerals were held yesterday for a

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Speaker 2: number of victims, including ten year old Matilda, who was

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Speaker 2: gunned down while running towards her father.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we'll be back in a moment with the rest

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Speaker 1: of the day's business news. Sean, the CEO of oil

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Speaker 1: giant Woodside Energy, Meg O'Neil, has resigned and will take

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Speaker 1: on the top job at global major BP. That is

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Speaker 1: a big job, it sure is.

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Speaker 2: O'nil will take over on April one. BP chair Albert

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Speaker 2: Manifold said her proven track record of driving transformation, growth

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Speaker 2: and discipline capital allocation makes her the right leader, Woodside

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Speaker 2: said Liz Westcott, who runs your company's Australian operations, will

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Speaker 2: take over as acting chief executive until his successor is found.

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Speaker 2: Now I have a confession, Michael hm go On. The

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Speaker 2: CEO I have always wanted to meet is mego neil

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Speaker 2: because she runs an oil and gas company that can't

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Speaker 2: be easy from a ranger stand points, from environment to

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Speaker 2: finance slash capital allocation to how you travel the world

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Speaker 2: like she does. I just like him to know what

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Speaker 2: makes a tick. I've always kind of watched meg O'Neil

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Speaker 2: from AFAR and thought, well, I know people who know her, and.

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Speaker 1: Well we do have one more reporting season to get

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Speaker 1: through before true before she finishes up. So I'm going

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Speaker 1: to set that as your target. As my target, my

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Speaker 1: goal is to see if Meg O'Neil will come on

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Speaker 1: and discuss Woodside's results in for.

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Speaker 2: Would I mean, see how BP that's about as good

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Speaker 2: as it gets in oil and gas. You know she

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Speaker 2: will be a third chief executive in five years of

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Speaker 2: that company hasn't had hugely long tenure. First outsider to

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Speaker 2: lead BHP it's one hundred and sixteen year history, first

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Speaker 2: woman to lead BHP in its one hundred and sixteen

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Speaker 2: year history.

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Speaker 1: First outsider. That's one hundred and sixteen years that is

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Speaker 1: that is big. But she's got a good track record.

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Speaker 2: I mean she has and she's a transformation person and

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Speaker 2: that's what they want. It kind of puts her in

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Speaker 2: the same league as people like it. You probably never

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Speaker 2: remember Charlie Bell. Yes, Brend McDonald's started the rub restore

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Speaker 2: in sea, work his way up to literally run the

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Speaker 2: whole thing, tragically died whilst very young. Andrew Laverez ran

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Speaker 2: our Chemicals. Another one. I mean, I still think the

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Speaker 2: absolute top in terms of success on the global stage

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Speaker 2: has to go Rupert Murdoch. But Mago Nol congratulations you're

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Speaker 2: on the way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely now. Optus workers Sean faced the sack or

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Speaker 1: financial penalties after an independent review exposed a litany of

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Speaker 1: failures behind September's deadly triple zero outage.

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Speaker 2: Telco's chairman called the findings a sobering read for everyone

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Speaker 2: at Optus. The shot review, released yesterday, found at least

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Speaker 2: ten separate mistakes by Uptiss Engineers and Contract and Nokia

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Speaker 2: during what should have been a routine firewall upgrade on

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Speaker 2: September eighteen, those failures left six hundred and fifty five

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Speaker 2: people unable to reach emergency services for almost fourteen hours.

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Speaker 2: Two people died. This is according to nine Media. The

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Speaker 2: review found that of the six hundred and five callers

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Speaker 2: who tried to dial Triple zero across South Australia, Western Australia,

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Speaker 2: in the Northern territorin part New South Wales on that day,

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Speaker 2: just one hundred and fifty got through. It's a seventy

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Speaker 2: five percent failure rate. The opter Sport accepted all twenty

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Speaker 2: one recommendations from the review led by corporate veteran Dot

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Speaker 2: Liil led by corporate veteran doctor Kerry Shott, at a

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Speaker 2: meeting on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Netwealth has agreed to refund almost one hundred million dollars

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Speaker 1: to victims of the failed First Guardian fund who invested

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Speaker 1: in the scheme via its superannuation platform.

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Speaker 2: Networth admitted to the corporate regulator that it had failed

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Speaker 2: to understand or evaluate the risks before offering First Guardian

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Speaker 2: to clients of its platform. It's the second largest compensation

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Speaker 2: order secured by ASSEK, after mcquarie agreed to pay more

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Speaker 2: than three or pay three hundred and fifteen billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: The banking regulator. This training Predential Regulation Authority also secured

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Speaker 2: a court enforceable undertaking from Netwealth and imposed license conditions

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Speaker 2: on another platform, equity Trustees, requiring both to hire independent

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Speaker 2: experts to review their investments. Now, between First Guardian and SHILD,

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Speaker 2: about twelve thousand Australian's collectively lost one point one billion

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Speaker 2: dollars after they were signed up by lead generators and

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Speaker 2: financial advisors, often using high pressure tactics.

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Speaker 1: Financial Crimes Agency os TRAK is investigating Bendigo and Adelaide

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Speaker 1: Bank's compliance with anti money laundering rules after four people

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Speaker 1: were arrested following suspicious activity at one of the regional

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Speaker 1: lenders branches.

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Speaker 2: Currently last month said it had tasked Delute to investigate

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Speaker 2: any money laundering risks at a review that found weaknesses

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Speaker 2: and deficiencies across many key aspects. Now, the Ostrack investigation

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Speaker 2: announced yesterday came as the Australian Predancial Regulation Authority said

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Speaker 2: it would force the bank to hold extra money fifty

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Speaker 2: million dollars on its balance sheet to mitigate risk. APP

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Speaker 2: has also demanded the lender conduct and independent review of

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Speaker 2: the root causes these issues. According to the finn.

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Speaker 1: In Corporate News yesterday a couple of stories around bapcoor

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Speaker 1: was the top performer on the ASX two hundred following

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Speaker 1: the resignation of chief executive Angus McKay less than eighteen

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Speaker 1: months into the role. Backcour's share price jumped fifteen percent.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that can't be good, can it. I'st not believe,

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Speaker 2: not good for the ego. Actually, a guy called Chris

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Speaker 2: Wallsmith is the replacement. He's super tea would I very

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Speaker 2: highly regarded, So maybe that's the reason.

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Speaker 1: Might be more to do with him.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the other one chairs of uranium minor Boss Energy

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Speaker 2: it felt twenty five percent, So Bapcot was the best

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Speaker 2: on the a SX two hundred, Boss Energy the worst.

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Speaker 2: The A SEX two hundred hit a four year low

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Speaker 2: after withdrawing a feasibility study for its Honeymoon project in

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Speaker 2: South Australia.

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Speaker 1: Ouch okay International News. The Oscars Sean, I know you're

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Speaker 1: a big fan of the Oscars will be exclusively streamed

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Speaker 1: on YouTube. I just love how blankly you looked at.

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Speaker 2: Me just now. So I left to New York for

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Speaker 2: a while and down the hall from us sleep the family,

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Speaker 2: lovely family and the mum. She was a partner. I

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Speaker 2: just can't remember which firm it was, but her job

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Speaker 2: not well sorry, she was a partner at the accounting firm.

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Speaker 2: But when on Oscars night, she'd be that she was

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Speaker 2: the person that walked on with the envelope. The envelopes I.

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Speaker 1: Wasn't at all involved in. Remember the big Starga when

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Speaker 1: the wrong one one was announced and there was the

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Speaker 1: investigation of how the envelopes all kind of how the

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Speaker 1: wrong info got out there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah no, but that's what That's what she did. Didn't

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Speaker 2: say a word, just walked on because it was all

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Speaker 2: of lock and key until the final moment. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Well, we'll be watching it now on YouTube Sean from

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty nine, after the Academy of Motion Picture Arts

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Speaker 1: and Science has struck a deal with YouTube, ending a

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Speaker 1: near fifty year run on free to Our ABC.

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Speaker 2: Doesn't that show you how Hollywood's changed? Oh yeah, Basically,

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Speaker 2: hollywoods confronting shrinking TV audiences, audiences, changing viewing habits, particularly

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Speaker 2: among younger viewers, so they've gone to YouTube. OSCAR ratings

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Speaker 2: have steadily fallen over the past decade from more than

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Speaker 2: thirty four million viewers in twenty sixteen to around twenty

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Speaker 2: million this year. YouTube now accounts for about thirty percent

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Speaker 2: of all TV viewing times in the US, more than

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Speaker 2: any other streaming platform. Quite remarkable. The New York Times

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Speaker 2: reports New York Times reports US network ABC had hoped

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Speaker 2: to retain the rights but at a reduced fee, whereas

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Speaker 2: the Academy wanted to hire some to help fund is

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Speaker 2: year round activities, including film restoration. It's not known how

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Speaker 2: much YouTube paid for the rights, but a seismic shift there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely just so funny that that's what the Academy

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Speaker 1: is doing as well, that you just think the Academy

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Speaker 1: all they do is the oscars. They're restoring films, good

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Speaker 1: other things as well, so they need more money for it,

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Speaker 1: and YouTube is helping them out. Finally, Sean polar Bears.

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Speaker 1: I don't exactly know what polar bears have to do

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Speaker 1: with business news, but we need a feel good story.

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Speaker 1: It's been a bad week indeed. Researchers tracking wild polar

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Speaker 1: bears in Northern Canada have witnessed something that they've described

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Speaker 1: as exceedingly rare. It is a mother bear adopting a

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Speaker 1: cub that was not biologically her own So there's a

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Speaker 1: five year old mother bear and her ten to eleven

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Speaker 1: month old cubs, including her adoptee, were observed and captured

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Speaker 1: on camera during the annual Polar Bear my along the

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Speaker 1: western Hudson Bay, near a town that is known for

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Speaker 1: its polar bear population. So if you're going to watch

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Speaker 1: polar bears, that's where you go.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so you go to Churchill, Manitoba to watch polar bears.

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Speaker 2: And I'm just saying that out loud because you skipped

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Speaker 2: that name because I think you were worried about how

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Speaker 2: you're going to pronounce Mintoba Manitoba.

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Speaker 1: I was like, I don't know about Manitoba. I was like,

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Speaker 1: you know what, it's not essential anyway. It's only the

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Speaker 1: thirteenth known case of adoption out of the forty six

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Speaker 1: hundred bears stated for nearly five decades in the area.

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Speaker 1: According to the BBC, the mother bear was first captured

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Speaker 1: as she emerged from her maternity then this spring. At

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Speaker 1: the time, she had one cub, which scientists tag for study.

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Speaker 1: In the fall, she was seen again, but this time

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Speaker 1: with two cubs, the original cub that have been tagged

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Speaker 1: and another without a tag. Researchers aren't sure what happened

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Speaker 1: to the new cub's biological mother, but they are trying

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Speaker 1: to identify her with genetic samples. Polar bears in the

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Speaker 1: wild only have a fifty percent chance of surviving into adulthood.

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Speaker 1: Having mother caring for them improves their odds, So this

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Speaker 1: mama bear is doing a cracking job for maybe bear.

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Speaker 1: The cubs appear to be healthy. Research you said they

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Speaker 1: likely stayed with their mum until they're about two and

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Speaker 1: a half years old. That's a great story to finish on.

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Speaker 1: Up next is Fear and Greed Q and A with

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Speaker 1: amps Diana Messina.

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Speaker 2: We love Diana. She's a great supporter of Fear and

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Speaker 2: Greed and she came on and gave us the five

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Speaker 2: things she learned this year and they were not really economic.

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Speaker 2: I mean five things she learned this year about how

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Speaker 2: to read the economy really interesting and.

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Speaker 1: Their impact on markets. There's just so much in it.

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Speaker 1: It's a really good chat. It's coming up next to

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Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or

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Speaker 1: at Fearandgreed dot com dot au. We are back tomorrow

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Speaker 1: with the weekend edition and then Sunday Q and A

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Speaker 1: and then we're moving to the summer series of Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed from Monday.

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Speaker 2: Short shorter episodes. Shorter episodes out every day every day,

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Speaker 2: twice a day, in fact, twice a day, but no newsletter.

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Speaker 2: We're taking the newsletters, taking a break.

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Speaker 1: That's right, that's right. But if you like listening to

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed, never Fear, we will be in your

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Speaker 1: ears every day over summer. So thank you for sticking

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Speaker 1: with us, and thank you Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Friday, the nineteenth of December twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast. Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok, and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed. Have a great day.