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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. The United States and China

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Speaker 1: talk on tariffs, while fragile peace negotiations take place between

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Speaker 1: India and Pakistan and Russia and Ukraine. Melbourne outperformed Sydney

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Speaker 1: in the home auction market, and a Cold War era

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Speaker 1: of satellite comes crashing to earth after fifty two years plus.

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Speaker 1: Wheat prices hit a five year low, and the battle

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Speaker 1: for the Liberal Party leadership heats up. Welcome to Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed, Daily business news for people who make their

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Speaker 1: own decisions. It is Monday, the twelfth of May twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 1: Good morning Michael, Shawn. Big week. Youre setting off on

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Speaker 1: the very what three hundred and eighty colt I was

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Speaker 1: about to say very long, but it is three hundred

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Speaker 1: and eighty kilometer ride for country kids. This week. It

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Speaker 1: is going to be a very very tiring week for you.

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Speaker 1: But you know what what, Michael, Every day there is

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Speaker 1: still going to be fear and greed. There is still

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Speaker 1: going to be the daily newsletter.

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Speaker 2: There will be the daily newsletter. And if you want

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Speaker 2: to be just a step ahead of your colleague or

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Speaker 2: the person you're going to talk to when you get

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Speaker 2: to work. Read the daily newspapers. I think that'll put

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Speaker 2: you there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. I will just point out you

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Speaker 1: just called it a daily newspaper, which might actually just

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Speaker 1: suggest that you have spent how many working in newspapers?

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Speaker 2: Many many years working in newspapers, Yeah, many many years. Now.

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Speaker 2: I'm an audio guy. Now, Michael, you've taught.

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Speaker 1: Me that that's right, except for the newsletter, which is

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Speaker 1: of course an email. So I'm confusing you here. But

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Speaker 1: sign up at the website Fearanngreed dot com dot a.

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Speaker 1: You will put a link in today's show notes as

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Speaker 1: well so that you can sign up on with the show,

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Speaker 1: though Seawan, the very audio based show. The main story

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Speaker 1: this morning. The US and China have held talks. They're

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Speaker 1: in the process still of holding talks over tariffs, which

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Speaker 1: both sides describe as promising. Vladimir Putin says Russia and

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Speaker 1: Ukraine should meet to negotiate a lasting piece, and India

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Speaker 1: and Pakistan q each other a violations after a ceasefire ideal.

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Speaker 2: It's been a very big few days in geopolitics. The

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Speaker 2: world just doesn't feel quite as safe as it did

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Speaker 2: twelve months ago, which is a weird thing to say,

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Speaker 2: but you know, Starting with the talks between the US

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Speaker 2: and China over tariffs, the two sides met in Switzerland

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Speaker 2: over the weekend after US President Donald Trump suggested an

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Speaker 2: eighty percent tariff might be about right. That's as opposed

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Speaker 2: to the one hundred and forty five percent tariff he

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Speaker 2: has already imposed. Trump claimed a total reset in relations

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Speaker 2: between the world's two biggest economies were happening as a

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Speaker 2: result of the talks, saying they were friendly but constructive. Now,

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Speaker 2: a short term win for Beijing is reduction or removal

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Speaker 2: of the steep tariff's imposed by Washington. A win for

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Speaker 2: the US probably China doing more to restrict the flow

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Speaker 2: of fentanyl into North America. Experts aren't confident that substantive

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Speaker 2: progress will be made unless, say, Trump's penchant for quick

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Speaker 2: fixes doesn't really match up with China's preferred option of slowly,

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Speaker 2: slowly creating substantive change. The second day of talks due

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Speaker 2: to wrap up this morning, probably wrapping up about now.

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Speaker 2: We will wait and see what comes out of those,

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Speaker 2: but at least the tour talking.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, what's happening then with the peace talks or

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Speaker 1: the non talks, I suppose really between Russia and Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: So Russian President Vladimir Putin, Yes, they invited Ukraine to

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Speaker 2: take part in direct talks, is how we put it.

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Speaker 2: Later this week, it came hours after European leaders urged

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Speaker 2: Moscow to agree to her thirty day ceasefire. In a

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Speaker 2: rare televised late night address from the Kremlin, Putin said

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Speaker 2: Russia was seeking serious negotiations aimed at and I moving

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Speaker 2: towards a lasting, strong peace now. Earlier in the weekend,

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Speaker 2: the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Poland traveled

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Speaker 2: to Kiev in Ukraine to put pressure on Russia to

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Speaker 2: commit to an unconditional ceasefire they wanted to start tonight.

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Speaker 2: Putin has come back, saying later in the week, will

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Speaker 2: let's undertake some dire talks. So there is progress there

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 1: At least there is progress closer to home, somewhat closer

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Speaker 1: to home. Sean, it sounds like the ceasefire between India

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Speaker 1: and Pakistan isn't holding correct.

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Speaker 2: After four days of cross border strikes, India and Pakistan

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Speaker 2: said they had agreed on a full and immediate ceasefire

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Speaker 2: that was Saturday. US President Donald Trump announced the news

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Speaker 2: on his truth social platform, saying that had been broken

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Speaker 2: by the US now. Pakistan's foreign minister later confirmed the

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Speaker 2: agreement had been reached by the two countries, adding that

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Speaker 2: three dozen countries were involved in the diplomacy. According to

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Speaker 2: the BBC, hours after the announcement, residents in the main

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Speaker 2: Indian administered Kashmiri cities of Shrindagarth and Jimu reported hearing

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Speaker 2: the sounds of explosions and seeing flashes in the sky.

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Speaker 2: Both sides, India and Pakistan accused the other of violating

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Speaker 2: the ceasefire. If you're wondering what this is about, Kashmi

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Speaker 2: is claimed in full by India. It's also claimed in

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Speaker 2: full by Pakistan, so it's a disputed territory. They've actually

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Speaker 2: administered it together ever since it was partitioned following independence

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Speaker 2: from Britain in nineteen forty seven. They have had two

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Speaker 2: wars over this Kashmir region previously. But this is definitely

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Speaker 2: the most delicate situation we've had in a couple of decades.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he did make the point, didn't you, that really

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Speaker 1: we've got India, Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine talks between China and US.

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Speaker 1: There's just so much happening on the global stage right now,

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Speaker 1: and it just does not feel quite as settled as

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Speaker 1: we were perhaps twelve months ago. No.

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Speaker 2: Last week we had the US UK trade deal. Now,

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Speaker 2: I noticed Shane Oliver over the week and the AMT

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Speaker 2: Chief economists calling it a joke simply because there's no detail.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you can't just say there's a trade deal

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Speaker 2: and expect that there is a trade deal. So even

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Speaker 2: the successes don't really feel like successes at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, local markets, Sean, where did we finish up? On Friday?

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Speaker 2: The ASX recorded its first negative week in four notwithstanding

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Speaker 2: a half percent rise on Friday for the SMPA six

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Speaker 2: two hundred, it finished two hundred and thirty one points,

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Speaker 2: down half percent for the week. Based on futures training,

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Speaker 2: the local markets should open slightly higher this morning, Michael

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Speaker 2: International Markets. Oil prices jumped a bit over the weekend,

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Speaker 2: but they're still relatively low, trading under sixty four US

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Speaker 2: dollars a barrel, goal is at thirty three hundred US

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Speaker 2: and ounce bitcoins back above one hundred thousand US dollars

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Speaker 2: a unit. In fact, it's almost one hundred and four

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Speaker 2: thousand US dollars a unit, while the Aussie dollar is

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Speaker 2: buying just over sixty four US cents.

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Speaker 1: Sean, Given you are heading off to rural Australia this

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Speaker 1: week on this bike ride and god the fundraising that

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Speaker 1: you were doing, the support from fantastic listeners has been overwhelming,

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Speaker 1: it has been extraordinary, and thank you to everybody who

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Speaker 1: has donated. The ride for Country Kids, raising money for

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Speaker 1: basically children in rural and regional areas who just don't

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Speaker 1: get the opportunities that others haven't. And if you're able

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Speaker 1: to donate, Pa Pa, I'll put a link in today's

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Speaker 1: show notes as well. That is very much appreciated. But

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Speaker 1: given your heading off to rural Australia, you want to

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Speaker 1: talk about wheat, I do. It's Australia's biggest grain crop

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Speaker 1: and there's a bit going.

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Speaker 2: On there is and I think that each day this well,

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Speaker 2: I won't promise that because I must say when I'm

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Speaker 2: on the road, who knows what sort of stories we're

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Speaker 2: going to be getting. But we'll see.

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Speaker 1: That's just today's story. My legs are sore.

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Speaker 2: Next day, my legs are saw. The wheat crops worth

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Speaker 2: about nine billion dollars a year. That's a lot of money.

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Speaker 2: Twenty eight million tons it dwarfs are the crops, so

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Speaker 2: next I think in line is barley than canola and chickpeas,

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Speaker 2: but wheat is far and away our biggest grain crop.

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Speaker 2: Australia accounts for about three to four percent of world

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Speaker 2: wheat production but about fifteen percent of global wheat trade,

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Speaker 2: so we are a player, and it's not as big

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Speaker 2: as places like Russia and Ukraine, but we are certainly significant.

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Speaker 2: Mostly we sell our wheat to be used in I'll

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Speaker 2: give you the This is, according to the Australian Export

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Speaker 2: Grains Innovation Center, used in Asian noodles, baked products, cakes, cookies,

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Speaker 2: steamed foods, pasta and animal feed. The animal feeds a

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Speaker 2: bit of a disappointment, to be honest.

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Speaker 1: I just love how specific it starts out that list

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Speaker 1: Asian noodles and then we just get to broad kind of.

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Speaker 2: Baked as chicken beef either. Anyway, at the point of

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Speaker 2: the story here, the price of wheats around a five

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Speaker 2: year low, basically much higher supply, so the weather in

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Speaker 2: the US has been much more conducive to wheat growth,

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Speaker 2: so we have much more supply coming on now. Over

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Speaker 2: the past five years or so, there has been a

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Speaker 2: real crisis in the wheat industry, particularly because of the

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Speaker 2: war in Ukraine and the fact that that region produces

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Speaker 2: so much wheat. Anyway, things are back to normal five

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Speaker 2: year low, but it is actually back to the long

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Speaker 2: term trend.

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Speaker 1: All right now, sean quick mention of the interview that

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Speaker 1: you've got coming up after the show. First of all,

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Speaker 1: we've got Fear and Greed the week ahead with our

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Speaker 1: resident economist, Stephen could call us after that. You are

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Speaker 1: speaking to Jacomo Tarrantolo from Unsuper, which is a great

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Speaker 1: supporter of the podcast.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we talk about the mismatch between retirees and financial advisors.

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Speaker 2: So what where It's not so much the accumulation stage.

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Speaker 2: It's when you get to retirement and then you start

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Speaker 2: withdrawing from your super and live out your retirement years.

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Speaker 2: So we talk about the mismatch there and how super

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Speaker 2: funds are filling that gap. It's a really we talk

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Speaker 2: a lot about saving for super we don't talk a

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Speaker 2: lot about what happens when you retire, and that's what

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Speaker 2: this is about.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great conversation. It's coming up after the

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Speaker 1: show stick around, though we've got plenty still to come.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news sewn. There were eighteen hundred home

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Speaker 1: auctions over the past week across the nation, the busiest

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Speaker 1: since before Easter, and the preliminary clearance rate held above

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Speaker 1: seventy percent for the second week running.

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Speaker 2: After a few lower preliminary clearance rates, things have certainly

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Speaker 2: picked up. Maybe the enticement of another just rate cut

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Speaker 2: next week helps. Perhaps I'd say Sam again. Melbourne is

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Speaker 2: the capital city leading the way. The last couple of

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Speaker 2: weeks it's been running ahead of Sydney at least in

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Speaker 2: terms of clearance rates, and over the past seven days

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Speaker 2: its rate came at seventy three point two percent. Sydney

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Speaker 2: was sixty eight percent. It's now had eight consecutive weeks

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Speaker 2: where that clearance rate has been below seventy percent. Adelaide

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Speaker 2: and Brisbane came in at sixty seven and seventy percent respectively.

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Speaker 1: Shawman need to talk politics. The fallout from the election

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Speaker 1: continues in the coalition ranks. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott

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Speaker 1: has endorsed Angus Taylor and Senator Just Center number gin

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Speaker 1: Per Price to become the next Liberal leadership team.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday, Price said she would be Taylor's running mate up

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Speaker 2: against Susan Lee when the Liberal MP's returned to Cambriden

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Speaker 2: tomorrow to select a replacement for Peter Dutton. Miss Rabbit

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Speaker 2: said the Liberal Party Owes Australia a much stronger performance

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Speaker 2: at the next election and that has to start now now.

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Speaker 2: Angus Taylor is certainly a more conservative from more concers

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Speaker 2: served the side of Liberal politics. Susan Lee is definitely

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Speaker 2: one of the more moderates. The Prime Minister Anthony Albanez,

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Speaker 2: he is tomorrow expected to outline his new cabinet.

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Speaker 1: Just staying with labor. Ousted Federal Front bencher Ed Husick

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Speaker 1: has labeled Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles a factional assassin

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Speaker 1: over his move to dump two cabinet ministers and says

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Speaker 1: he was punished in part for speaking out on the

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Speaker 1: war in Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's the only he was the only Muslim member

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Speaker 2: of cabinet and this there's been a lot of play

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Speaker 2: about that. The outgoing Industry Minister also said the government

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Speaker 2: had been shackled by timidity and needed to meet the

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Speaker 2: challenges of the constantly evolving global economic environment. According to

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Speaker 2: report in the finn Review, Hewsic on Friday was one

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Speaker 2: of two cabinet ministers, along with Attorney General Mark Dreyfuss,

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Speaker 2: to be dumped from Labour's front bench as part of

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Speaker 2: a factional play orchestrated by Males, who leads the Victorian

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Speaker 2: Right faction, with Husick's new South Wales Right faction overrepresented

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Speaker 2: in Albanzi's thirty person ministry. The mathematics of Labour's factional

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Speaker 2: carbap means that either Husic, Tony Burk, Chris Bowe or

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Speaker 2: Jason Cleare had to be dumped as the most junior

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Speaker 2: of the fourth Husic was one to get the acts.

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Speaker 1: It's funny. This is kind of the first time in

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Speaker 1: a very long time that there has been open disunity

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Speaker 1: within Labor.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it's fascinating to watch because they are so far

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Speaker 2: in front. I think the latest count I saw the

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Speaker 2: collition was down to thirty nine seeds Labor at least

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Speaker 2: ninety one, maybe even ninety two now. And when you

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Speaker 2: have that big a lead, that in itself causes problem

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Speaker 2: because unity doesn't seem to matter quite as much.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, discipline still required. Sean. There's a bit of

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Speaker 1: corporate news around. Late last week, US based Coastar struck

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Speaker 1: a deal to buy real Estate classified platform Domain for

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Speaker 1: three billion dollars. This came after months of negotiation. We've

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Speaker 1: been talking about it a bit.

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Speaker 2: Actually we have so shares in domain, which is majority

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Speaker 2: owned by Nine Entertainment, jump three percent. Nine share prices

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Speaker 2: up six percent. The US real estate data giant First

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Speaker 2: bought about seventeen percent of domain in February off at

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Speaker 2: a price which nine has agreed to. Nine will walk

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Speaker 2: away with about one point four billion dollars in tax.

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Speaker 2: About half of that is expected to go back to

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Speaker 2: shareholders as a fully franked special dividend.

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Speaker 1: Macquarie Group announced to three point seven billion dollar full

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Speaker 1: year profit and promised to respond to the regulator's criticism

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Speaker 1: of its risk culture and other good story.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the full year profit was up six percent. The

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Speaker 2: group's share price jumped four percent on Friday as a result.

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Speaker 2: It reflected a strong performance by its asset management division

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Speaker 2: growth in loans and deposits. The big issue from Acquiry

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Speaker 2: at the moment is all around governance.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: It's in its annual report, which it released on Friday.

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Speaker 2: Chair Glenn Stevens said the board and management had a

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Speaker 2: responsibility to enjoy the highest standards of professional conduct across

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Speaker 2: the group.

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Speaker 1: Do like how I labeled that one another good story? Yes,

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Speaker 1: as as though you were stories. Yeah, you were waiting

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Speaker 1: for my approval of the stories that you've chosen to

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Speaker 1: include in today's show. I like this next one though,

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, qb E Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So.

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Speaker 1: The chairman, Mike Wilkins, said that state government insurance taxes

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Speaker 1: raised three point five billion dollars more than the entire

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Speaker 1: industry's profits in twenty twenty four, and cutting them would

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Speaker 1: be the fastest way to bring relief to customers hit

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Speaker 1: with higher premiums from the rising costs of well kind

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Speaker 1: of cleaning up after natural disasters.

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Speaker 2: It's a fair point, don't you reckon?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Actually it seems quite legitimate.

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Speaker 2: Thank qba's annual General meeting on Friday, Wilkins criticized policymakers

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Speaker 2: for spending ninety seven percent of disaster funding on recovery

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Speaker 2: after catastrophes and only three percent on mitigation projects like

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Speaker 2: building dams, levies that type of thing. He said, with

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Speaker 2: the average cost of insurance jumping sixteen per cent last year,

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Speaker 2: reducing state taxes is one of the few immediate ways

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Speaker 2: of cutting premiums.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news, Now, Sean, how about this story.

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Speaker 2: I'll be for you.

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Speaker 1: I have been watching this story for weeks, waiting for

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Speaker 1: us to get to this point. A Cold War era

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Speaker 1: spacecraft has come crashing down to Earth after being stuck

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Speaker 1: in orbit for more than five decades. I mean it

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Speaker 1: never even got anywhere near Venus, which is where it

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Speaker 1: was trying to get to.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so a report from Russian space agency ros Cosmos

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Speaker 2: have I said that correctly. YEP claimed that the Cosmos

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Speaker 2: four eight two splashed down in the Indian acean west

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Speaker 2: of Jakarta. According to the Daily Telegraph of London, experts

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Speaker 2: have been monitoring Cosmos four eight two, but its eccentric orbit,

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Speaker 2: coupled with space weather made its potential landing side very

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Speaker 2: difficult to predict. In an update on its telegram channel,

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Speaker 2: ross Cosmos said the descent of the spacecraft was monitored

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Speaker 2: by the Automated Warning System for Hazardous Situations in Near

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Speaker 2: Earth space. I reckon Cosmos four A two falling into

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Speaker 2: the ace I think that's hazardous, so fair.

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Speaker 1: Enough, kind of fits the bill, right, So it described

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Speaker 1: as a five hundred kilogram cannonball.

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Speaker 2: It was launched in the spring of nineteen seventy two

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Speaker 2: to study Venus. As you mentioned, due to a malfunction

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Speaker 2: of the booster block, it remained in high elliptical orbit

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Speaker 2: of the Earth, gradually coming back down fifty two years.

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Speaker 1: It took we were waiting half a century for this

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Speaker 1: thing to come back down. So where is and finally

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Speaker 1: it did? All right. Up next is the Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed Daily Interview with Jacomo Tarantolo from Unisuper, as well

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Speaker 1: as Fear and Greed The Week Ahead with Stephen Cookoulas

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Speaker 1: plenty to talk about big week actual. We've got Labor

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Speaker 1: Force Stata coming out this week.

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Speaker 2: Haven't we We do, and we've got the Wage Price Index,

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Speaker 2: so plenty of stuff around employment and what you're getting

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Speaker 2: paid and all that sort of thing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's some good listening coming up in the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at

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Speaker 1: Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is also where you

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Speaker 1: sign up for that daily newsletter. Thank you, Sean, Thank

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Speaker 1: you Michael. It is Monday, the twelfth of May twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please

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Speaker 1: join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson that with fear and greed, have a

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Speaker 1: great day,