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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business Interview. I'm sure

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Speaker 1: and Alma. Financial markets are bracing for the impact of

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's return to the White House. He was elected

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Speaker 1: on a platform of well space extreme policies, ranging from

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Speaker 1: mass deportations to huge tariffs on trade, and while coming

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Speaker 1: days will reveal just how quickly these policies are implemented,

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Speaker 1: or if they're going to be implemented, investment markets are

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Speaker 1: still set for a volatile ride. Doctor Shane Oliver is

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Speaker 1: chief economist and head of investment Strategy at AMP. Shane,

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Speaker 1: welcome back to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Sean. Nice to be here now.

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Speaker 1: We're speaking on Monday afternoon, just twelve hours before Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump is to be inaugurated. Is there a sense of

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Speaker 1: anticipation in markets that he's going to go hard in

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Speaker 1: the first week.

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Speaker 2: To be honest with you, I think markets are a

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Speaker 2: little bit confused. There's a lot of debate around that.

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Speaker 2: If anything, I think markets have sort of toned back

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Speaker 2: some of their expertstions and are hoping that he doesn't

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Speaker 2: go too hard. But by the same token, I think

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Speaker 2: most analysts that I've seen are expecting significant announcements in

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Speaker 2: the first week, not necessarily day one, but certainly week one.

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Speaker 2: I think it is going to be a vola tile ride.

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Speaker 2: The share markets rallied dramatically after the U S selection

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Speaker 2: or the run up to the US election, and then

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Speaker 2: afterwards into December on the back of his more favorable

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Speaker 2: policies around tax and deregulation. Then they started to worry

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Speaker 2: that would blow the budget deficit out and the tariffs

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Speaker 2: would cause inflation. US dollar has gone up dramatically since

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Speaker 2: last September, since the Democrats peaked in the polls and

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Speaker 2: the Republican states they're big comeback, and bonyls have also

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Speaker 2: gone up, so there is an anticipation that something would happen,

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Speaker 2: and most of those market moves can be put down

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Speaker 2: to markets trying to step out what Donald Trump will

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Speaker 2: do precisely. I guess the big debate is the mix

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Speaker 2: of the positive stuff, the tax cuts deregulation, versus the

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Speaker 2: negative stuff, the tariffs and deportations and so on, and

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Speaker 2: I think markets are sort of leaning more towards a

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Speaker 2: positive stance, but there's still a lot of uncertainty around that.

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Speaker 1: As far as we are concerned Australia, what should we

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Speaker 1: be looking at as it affects US. Is it tariffs

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Speaker 1: and the potential for a trade war that hits US most,

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Speaker 1: or is it some of the other stuff that we

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Speaker 1: should be worried about.

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Speaker 2: Look, I think it's a bit of everything, but it's

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Speaker 2: the tariffs that are the main concern. To be honest,

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Speaker 2: whether you I don't think ultimately we will be paying

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Speaker 2: a ten percent or a twenty percent tariff, or rather

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Speaker 2: Americans will be paying a town of twenty percent tariff

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Speaker 2: on imports from Australia. It is worth noting that only

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Speaker 2: four percent of our goods exports go to the US. Anyway,

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Speaker 2: we actually have a trade deficit with the US. They

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Speaker 2: have a surplus with US. Various comments from Trump's new team,

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Speaker 2: including Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Besson, have indicated that one

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Speaker 2: of the focuses is on countries that have a trade

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Speaker 2: surplus with the US, and we're not that we have

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Speaker 2: a deficit. So I think ultimately it may require a

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Speaker 2: bit of negotiation. Ultimately, I don't think we will face

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Speaker 2: those tariffs by the same poken, we will be impacted.

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Speaker 2: If Trump's tariffs are impact on China, then that means

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Speaker 2: less demand for thirty five percent of our exports that

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Speaker 2: go to China. And also if there is a global

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Speaker 2: trade wark, then we are very exposed to that. That

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Speaker 2: will mean less economic activity globally and that will impact US.

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Speaker 2: I guess the other ways we could be impacted, but

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Speaker 2: it's a bit more secondary is if he blows out

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Speaker 2: the budget deficit, that means higher bond yields, higher borrowing costs.

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Speaker 2: Bond yields keep going up. Just as they've gone up

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Speaker 2: in the US since last September, they've gone up here

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Speaker 2: as well, and that can affect long term borrowing costs,

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Speaker 2: including long term mortgage rates here in Australia. So that's

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Speaker 2: something to watch out for as well. But I think

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Speaker 2: tariffs are probably the big one for Australia.

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Speaker 1: Just explain immigration a populist idea here and in the US,

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Speaker 1: and the idea that he's going to deport you know,

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Speaker 1: all these tens of or hundreds of thousands of people.

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Speaker 1: Explain why it's inflationary.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's a kind of as debate, this one a nauseaum.

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Speaker 2: There's an uplift to inflation from immigration because it means

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Speaker 2: more demand in the economy. There's also a downlift from

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Speaker 2: immigration because it means more workers. Now in the US,

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Speaker 2: the bulk of their immigrants relatively low income people coming

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Speaker 2: across the border from Mexico. They tend to be different

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Speaker 2: to the immigrants that come to Australia. We've generally got

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Speaker 2: undocumented or both people. I guess immigration under control pretty

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Speaker 2: much in Australia, so we tend to have pretty much

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Speaker 2: far better control of arm immigration. There's a big mix

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Speaker 2: of skilled people and then there's also a big mix

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Speaker 2: of students in there, and they're perhaps not quite as

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Speaker 2: inflation area as they are in the US. If anything,

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Speaker 2: I'd say that I might put that another way. I'd

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Speaker 2: say that the immigrants coming into the US help keep

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Speaker 2: inflation down more than they do in Australia. The reason

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Speaker 2: for that is is because they tend to be low skilled,

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Speaker 2: they end up doing the jobs that Americans start want

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Speaker 2: to do, so working on farms, working in shops and

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Speaker 2: all those sorts of things. There's a bit of that

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Speaker 2: in Australia, but we've also got a higher skilled component.

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Speaker 2: And also you could argue that when foreign students come here,

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Speaker 2: they don't spend as much potentially as American immigrants do.

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Speaker 2: See go with circles on this. But Americans, I guess

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Speaker 2: the big concern on the part of business in the

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Speaker 2: US is that if you deport people that are already

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Speaker 2: in there, A lot of those people are working on

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Speaker 2: farms in factories, and that would mean an increase in

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Speaker 2: labor costs. More so that it would mean a reduction

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Speaker 2: in spending, and that in turn could add to add

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Speaker 2: to US inflation.

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Speaker 1: Stay with me, Shane, we'll be back in a minute.

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Speaker 1: I'm speaking to to Shane Oliver from AMP Shane one

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Speaker 1: bit before we move kind of to the crystal ball part,

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Speaker 1: or in fact, when you're talking about Donald Trump, you're

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Speaker 1: probably crystal ball gazing all the time around deregulation. What

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Speaker 1: do you think will happen. There's a lot of talk

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Speaker 1: about deregulation under Donald Trump getting rid of bureaucracy. You

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Speaker 1: have Elon Musk wanting to get rid of red tape

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Speaker 1: and reduce the size of government, et cetera. What do

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Speaker 1: you expect to see and why do markets like it?

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Speaker 2: Well, it's interest funny. And then you kept mentioning Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: There.

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Speaker 2: I was watching The Apprentice, that new film about Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump setting up Donald Trump on Friday night with my

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Speaker 2: son and he says, Oh, I mean you most has

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Speaker 2: a similar haircut to you.

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Speaker 1: Dare, Oh, that's a bit rough.

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Speaker 2: I happened at the Scout reduction operation at the top

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Speaker 2: there and he was making those jokes about my hair

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Speaker 2: and Donald Trump's there four years ago, so I'm not

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Speaker 2: too keen about those jokes returning. But at any case, Yep,

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Speaker 2: when I look at Trump's policies, there's actually some very

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Speaker 2: good things. From a purely economic point. They're almost Reaganized

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Speaker 2: in their sense, and economists do get excited about some

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Speaker 2: of that because they could add to productivity. A concern

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Speaker 2: in recent years was that big government was getting the

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Speaker 2: upper hand. More government spending here in in the US

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Speaker 2: and in Australia and elsewhere, and things in that sense

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Speaker 2: could have a negative impact on productivity orreas. Trump, you

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Speaker 2: could argue, is going the other way. He's talking about

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Speaker 2: this Department of Government efficiency with Elon Musk. You could

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Speaker 2: argue that if that is done in a measured, in

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Speaker 2: appropriate way, it could lead to a renaissance in US productivity.

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Speaker 2: It's already doing pretty well, but con bost it even

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Speaker 2: further to the extent that you reduce regulation and reduce

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Speaker 2: the federal bureaucracy. So that could be a good thing.

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Speaker 2: The only thing is that there's a limited amount by

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Speaker 2: which they could do anyway, because the federal bureaucracy in

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Speaker 2: the US hasn't grown that much in recent years anyway,

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Speaker 2: and a lot of spending in the US's mandated, which

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Speaker 2: means if you're going to hit the two trees, then

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Speaker 2: target mask and others have talked about, you've actually got

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Speaker 2: to chop into things like Social Security and Medicare and

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Speaker 2: Medicaid and all those sorts of programs which Americans won't like.

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Speaker 2: So there's a limited amount to which they can do.

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Speaker 2: But generally speaking, those sort of policies, you know, lower taxes,

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Speaker 2: less regulation in the US could invigorate or kick US

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Speaker 2: productivity levels at relatively higher levels. And that's part of

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Speaker 2: the reason why the US dollar has gone up. The

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Speaker 2: US dollar has gone up for a whole bunch of reasons. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: if you impose tariffs, your currency goes up relative to

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Speaker 2: other countries to partly compensate for that. If you increase

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Speaker 2: the size of your budget deficit, you've got to borrow more.

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Speaker 2: You run higher interest rates that pushes your currency up.

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Speaker 2: And if you deregulate and do things that enhance the

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Speaker 2: supply side, that means more productivity, which means your country's

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Speaker 2: currency should be higher as well. So all of these

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Speaker 2: things go to explaining why the US dollar has gone up.

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Speaker 2: But generally speaking, markets level that talk about deregulation and

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Speaker 2: dog Department of government efficiency. I mean, maybe some people

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Speaker 2: up myself are getting annoyed with seeing elin mask always

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Speaker 2: at the top of my Twitter feed the four un component. Now,

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Speaker 2: no matter how much I try and go back to

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Speaker 2: the following component, he's always in there every morning. Was

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Speaker 2: some right when common and that comes on to seems

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Speaker 2: a bit of balanced to me. But anyway, most markets

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Speaker 2: generally sort of like all the talk about efficiency.

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Speaker 1: What about in six months time, twelve months time, let's

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Speaker 1: say the end of twenty twenty five, do you think

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Speaker 1: we will have gone through a period of getting used

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Speaker 1: to Donald Trump. Will we have a better idea of

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Speaker 1: what's going on? What's it mean for markets? I'm not

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Speaker 1: talking about it in three months time, but probably in

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Speaker 1: nine months time.

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Speaker 2: I think nine or twelve months time will have a

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Speaker 2: much better idea. Last time it took longer because he

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Speaker 2: moved more slowly and it was all about the dysfunctionality

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Speaker 2: of his team. It may well be the same again,

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Speaker 2: but this time around, I think he's learned to light

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Speaker 2: He's gone with people that he thinks are appropriate as

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Speaker 2: opposed to people that were recommended to him. See praps

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Speaker 2: should see less turnover in his team. But more broadly,

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Speaker 2: twenty seventeen was all about the tax cuts. Twenty eight

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Speaker 2: and it was about tariffs, and then by twenty nineteen

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Speaker 2: it all settled down and we got used to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: This time around, I think it'll happen earlier. You'll probably

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Speaker 2: get all the talk about tax cuts, irregulation and so on,

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Speaker 2: along with whatever he's going to do on tariff's pretty

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Speaker 2: quickly as we go through this year, and therefore by

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Speaker 2: the end of the year, we'll have maybe even nine months.

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Speaker 2: By the second half of the year, As we're going

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Speaker 2: to the second half, you will have a better idea

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Speaker 2: about Donald Trump, and I think things will have settled

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Speaker 2: down a little bit and we will have started to

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Speaker 2: get used to him, whereas last time around that took

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Speaker 2: all the way to twenty nineteen before we got to

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Speaker 2: that point.

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Speaker 1: Are you looking forward to it? As a chief investment officer.

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Speaker 2: Well, to be honest with you know, because it creates

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Speaker 2: a lot of noise. In that sense, it leads to

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Speaker 2: a lot more work just trying to work out what

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump said overnight it doesn't mean anything because he's

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Speaker 2: going to make a lot of announcements that are just noise.

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Speaker 1: Yep.

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Speaker 2: And he did that back in the past. You know,

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Speaker 2: he announced as a twenty five percent tariff on Mexico

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Speaker 2: and it never happens. So that's going to be the

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Speaker 2: case for a lot of these things. You've got to

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Speaker 2: work out what's real and what's not that. I don't

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Speaker 2: like it, and I know I'm not a great fan

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Speaker 2: of Donald Trump's personality. I don't think he's appropriate to

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Speaker 2: be president, even though I can see some merit in

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Speaker 2: some of his economic policies. That said, I mean, it's

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Speaker 2: just just life. You know, we're going cycle. The cycle

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Speaker 2: said more it's freed. You know.

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Speaker 1: Do you know how many presidents you've been an economist for.

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Speaker 1: Have you ever thought about that?

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Speaker 2: Ah? Well, that's question. It started when Reagan was there.

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Speaker 1: Six then maybe maybe too many. We'll leave it at that. Shane,

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Speaker 1: thank you for the.

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Speaker 2: Number of CEOs that I've seen an AMP and it

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Speaker 2: well fair enough.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for talking to us this morning on Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Thanks that it was doctor Shane Oliver, chief economist and

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Speaker 1: head of Investment Strategy at AMP. This is the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed Business Interview. Remember this is general information only,

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Speaker 1: and you'd always seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

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Speaker 1: Join us every morning for the full episode of Fire

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Speaker 1: and Greed, Australia's best business podcast. I'm Sean Elmer. Enjoy

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Speaker 1: your day, h