WEBVTT - Albanese v Dutton: The 'small target' v 'no target' election

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>The twenty twenty five federal election campaign has already begun,

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<v Speaker 1>even if unofficially. While most Australians are still enjoying their summer,

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<v Speaker 1>Anthony Alberisi and Peter Dunn are already in fight mode.

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<v Speaker 1>For Labor, the stakes are high to secure a second term.

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<v Speaker 1>They're hoping to reverse their losses in Queensland and regain

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<v Speaker 1>popularity with an apathetic electorate. For the Coalition, it's about

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<v Speaker 1>regaining ground and suburban seats and capitalizing on the government's

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<v Speaker 1>self inflicted wounds. Today the Saturday Papers Associate editor Martin

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<v Speaker 1>mackenzie Murray on the shadow campaign already underway and what

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<v Speaker 1>Labour insiders say is the biggest threat to the government

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<v Speaker 1>winning a second term. It's Monday, January thirteen. Mardy, Happy

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty five and good morning. I'm not going to

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<v Speaker 1>ask you about what you did this summer, but what

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<v Speaker 1>the Prime Minister did. What's he been up to?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, he didn't go to the sport typically over the holidays.

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<v Speaker 2>There are public appearances. Who had a beautifully dramatic summer

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<v Speaker 2>of cricket the best it was, but Albanizy was a

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<v Speaker 2>little conspicuous by his absence, and that's for good reason.

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<v Speaker 2>He's sending a message that he is committed to work

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<v Speaker 2>in preparation for the election which is imminent. Ish where

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<v Speaker 2>he has been is Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australia,

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<v Speaker 2>where he began his quick tour last week. He went

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<v Speaker 2>up to Cannes. He went to the great mining town

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<v Speaker 2>of Mount iSER where he announced about fifty million dollars

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<v Speaker 2>for housing infrastructure. He then flew to a cattle station

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<v Speaker 2>in the NTA and then onto Kannanara in West Australia's

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<v Speaker 2>Kimberley region.

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<v Speaker 3>Here but in this very vast state of Western Australia,

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<v Speaker 3>we announced two hundred million dollars of additional funding for

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<v Speaker 3>community infrastructure and for housing infrastructure to allow new builds

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<v Speaker 3>in housing.

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<v Speaker 2>So he was out there promising the development of Australia.

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<v Speaker 2>When it was asked of him in a media conference

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<v Speaker 2>in Queensland whether or not government expenditure, including social expenditure,

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<v Speaker 2>had aggravated inflestion, he was sort of unapologetically emphatic about

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<v Speaker 2>defending the government's commitment to social expenditure and you're.

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<v Speaker 3>Going to have to pull some pretty fast leavers to

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<v Speaker 3>convince the electorate. I believe that they're feeling better off

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<v Speaker 3>because right now most people are feeling like they're going backwards.

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<v Speaker 3>Prime Minister, well, under Labor we will continue to build

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<v Speaker 3>Australia's future. Under the Coalition, will go backwards under Peter

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<v Speaker 3>Dutton and things will cost more. Their only plan that

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<v Speaker 3>they've put forward is for nuclear reactors.

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<v Speaker 2>There's sort of this informal campaign at the moment where

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<v Speaker 2>it's not officially stated, but effectively the government has mobilized

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<v Speaker 2>into a campaign activity.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's clearly in campaign mode. Is there a date

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<v Speaker 1>that seems to be firming for when the election will be.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a lot of speculation, and of course, like with

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<v Speaker 2>this tactical coyness, a lot of people are guessing, but

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<v Speaker 2>plenty within the government believe that early April is a

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<v Speaker 2>good gas which would oblige a declaration in early March.

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<v Speaker 1>What are the benefits from a government perspective for choosing

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<v Speaker 1>an early April date?

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<v Speaker 2>So the benefit what I've heard is Albaneze wouldn't mind

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<v Speaker 2>a fortnight of Parliament that's due to be recalled in

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<v Speaker 2>February and then the avoidance of a budget which is

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<v Speaker 2>going to be quite unflattering to the government.

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<v Speaker 1>Until the election is called, we're, like you said, in

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<v Speaker 1>unofficial campaign mode, what are the early signs of what

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<v Speaker 1>the campaign will actually be about.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, this is the great question.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the battlegrounds?

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<v Speaker 2>So there's the electoral calculus, so perhaps i'll begin there. Sure,

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<v Speaker 2>Queensland was a huge problem in the previous federal election,

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<v Speaker 2>as it was pointed out to me by a campaigner

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<v Speaker 2>labor campaigner. They described it as almost a landslide the

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<v Speaker 2>previous election outside of Queensland. So they had already historic

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<v Speaker 2>heights in South Australian Victoria, they improved upon them. They

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<v Speaker 2>overwhelmed in Western Australia, a state typically difficult for labor,

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<v Speaker 2>but Queensland they in fact went backwards and their represent

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<v Speaker 2>federal representation there is the lowest it's been since nineteen

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<v Speaker 2>ninety six. So Queensland for labor is a focus.

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<v Speaker 3>We built areas where I was yesterday, Carota Kara, just

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<v Speaker 3>around the Gimpi area. We built and started work on

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<v Speaker 3>the Townsville Ring Road, on the mackay Bypath, on all

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<v Speaker 3>of these projects up and down the Bruce, but it

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<v Speaker 3>has been neglected by the former government. We're addressing that.

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<v Speaker 2>For the coalition. Victoria classically a more liberal states lower

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<v Speaker 2>case our liberal one that's been difficult for the coalition.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, my friends, is great to be back in Victoria.

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you very much for being here today. I want

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<v Speaker 4>to repeat what I've said.

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<v Speaker 2>So Albanezy's busyness compelled Dutton's and last weekend he did

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<v Speaker 2>something of his own informal campaign when he went and

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<v Speaker 2>did an event in Melbourne Suburbs, which is an area

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<v Speaker 2>that they're going to have to reclaim some seats.

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<v Speaker 4>If we win Chisholm, we're a step closer to winning government,

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<v Speaker 4>and if we win government, we can get Victoria in

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<v Speaker 4>our country moving again.

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<v Speaker 2>This is kind of the considerable feeling within the coalition

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<v Speaker 2>is that they're going to have to take seats back

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<v Speaker 2>from Labor that they lost in Melbourne Suburbs.

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<v Speaker 1>You've been speaking to inside as people at various levels

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<v Speaker 1>of the Labor Party, including people close to the PM.

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<v Speaker 1>How are I feeling about their prospects.

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<v Speaker 2>It depends who speaks to. So those close to the

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<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister say he's very confident, bullish even about his

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<v Speaker 2>prospects and the sort of the further away you go

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<v Speaker 2>from the Prime Minister's office, I think, the greater the

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<v Speaker 2>skepticism in the prime Minister's wisdom and confidence. There's been

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of grumbling about Albanese's political judgment. That was

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<v Speaker 2>the expensive coastal holiday home, which people were bitterly incredulous about.

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<v Speaker 2>They thought that signified this very surprising absence of political judgment.

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<v Speaker 2>And then of course there was the historic matter of

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<v Speaker 2>Quantus and Albanesi when he was the Minister for Infrastructure

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<v Speaker 2>and Transport, i e. The minister responsible for regulating Quantus,

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<v Speaker 2>who was enjoying certain privileges. When that story came to light,

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<v Speaker 2>Albanese became incredibly kind of bitterly defensive. Again, particularly those

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<v Speaker 2>on the sort of the outskirts, those back benches, particularly

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<v Speaker 2>those are marginal seats and who are becoming quite anxious

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<v Speaker 2>about the polls, grumbled about the Prime Minister's kind of

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<v Speaker 2>serial self harm. So it depends upon who you speak to.

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<v Speaker 2>But certainly Albanesi is confident, and not just confident of returning,

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<v Speaker 2>but confident of returning with a majority.

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<v Speaker 1>After the break, Can the Labor Party ever win outright again?

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<v Speaker 1>You been speaking with a lot of people inside labor,

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<v Speaker 1>are longtime labor watchers, about how they're trying to reset

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<v Speaker 1>their agenda this year, what are their chances of winning

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<v Speaker 1>re election and how are they thinking about the parts

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<v Speaker 1>of the country they'll do well and will they'll struggle.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so I imagined the electoral significance of Queensland for Labor.

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<v Speaker 2>When you ask me how this might be or where

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<v Speaker 2>it might be fought upon, then there's the thematic stuff,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think this is the dispiriting thing. Certainly. The

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<v Speaker 2>thing that was shared with me by one labor insider

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<v Speaker 2>is that it augurs poorly any expectation we might have

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<v Speaker 2>of a campaign that's fought on substance. And this is

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<v Speaker 2>from a Labor insider. And the reason they say that

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<v Speaker 2>is on one side, you have a weakened Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 2>who seems kind of increasingly hapless, in articulate and charmless.

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<v Speaker 2>The quite critical descriptions of the Prime Minister, who cannot

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<v Speaker 2>sell an articulate and coherent vision for the country. On

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<v Speaker 2>the other you have an opposition leader who has no

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<v Speaker 2>vision whatsoever. And that's not to say he doesn't possess one.

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<v Speaker 2>He certainly doesn't express it, nor has he needed to.

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<v Speaker 2>There's been this kind of pragmatic restraint that Dutton has shown,

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<v Speaker 2>and he's learned something from the previous election right where

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<v Speaker 2>Albenzi could largely sit back, watch Morrison self harm and

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<v Speaker 2>have the electorate not embrace Albanesi but in fact kind

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<v Speaker 2>of reject Morrison. So on one side you have a

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<v Speaker 2>prime minister who kind of offers no coherent, strong, articulate

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<v Speaker 2>vision for the country, and on the other an alternative

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<v Speaker 2>prime minister who needn't offer a vision whatsoever. And so

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<v Speaker 2>what they're preempting with this is a campaign that becomes

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<v Speaker 2>simply a highly personalized referendum on Albenzi.

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<v Speaker 1>Is the government taking the threat from the rise of

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<v Speaker 1>independence in the parliament? Seriously? What are they doing to

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<v Speaker 1>mitigate that risk?

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<v Speaker 2>It's a really really interesting time. We've been trending towards

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<v Speaker 2>this place for a while now, and that place is

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<v Speaker 2>a fairly evenly split electorate. So in the previous federal

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<v Speaker 2>election it was split pretty evenly between Labor, the Coalition

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<v Speaker 2>and Independence and Labor were euphoric obviously previous election. They

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<v Speaker 2>returned to government after nearly a decade in opposition, but

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<v Speaker 2>that euphoria concealed or disguised a really anemic primary vote.

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<v Speaker 2>Labor received thirty two percent of the primary vote, about

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<v Speaker 2>thirty four to thirty five percent the coalition and the

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<v Speaker 2>remainder going to independence. So that is unprecedented. And so

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<v Speaker 2>for all of the euphoria that Labor enjoyed, there was

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<v Speaker 2>still the issue of that primary vote, and the Labor

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<v Speaker 2>inside has said that he felt that the Labor was

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<v Speaker 2>more vulnerable to this kind of erosion of the primary

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<v Speaker 2>vote and this dissolution of traditional tribal loyalties that, as

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<v Speaker 2>the historian Frank Bonjorno was talking to me about, has

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<v Speaker 2>been eroding. Typically a bunch of kind of cultural allegiances.

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<v Speaker 2>It might be to church, it might be to a union,

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<v Speaker 2>it might be to a political party, it might be

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<v Speaker 2>all of the above. These were allegiances that were in

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<v Speaker 2>in the family and often inherited into generation l that's

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<v Speaker 2>no longer true. We're kind of at a hinge point,

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<v Speaker 2>I think. And the sum of this is the Labor

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<v Speaker 2>insiders said they didn't want to be overly dramatic, but

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<v Speaker 2>they did not think it implausible that the previous federal

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<v Speaker 2>election was the last time that Labor would enjoy a majority,

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<v Speaker 2>and when I put that to Frank Bonjoorno, I said,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, this is this alarmist and you know he

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<v Speaker 2>was emphatic, absolutely not. It's hardly controversial judgment to think

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<v Speaker 2>that that might be the case, that Labor will struggle

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<v Speaker 2>to form majority government into the future.

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<v Speaker 1>You talked about the euphoria that Labor felt when they

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<v Speaker 1>won and the big promises that Albanesi made. That not

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<v Speaker 1>the first thing he mentioned was the referendum on the Voice.

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<v Speaker 1>How much damage did the loss of the Voice referendum

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<v Speaker 1>due to Albanesi's popularity.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it was known at the time that it

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<v Speaker 2>was rather damaging, but in retrospect it was more damaging

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<v Speaker 2>than I think even I realized. He had pegged so

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<v Speaker 2>much of himself to it and the reference It wasn't

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<v Speaker 2>a minor loss. It was a rather kind of resounding loss,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think we can look back now and see

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<v Speaker 2>how crippling that was to the government's self conception, its credibility,

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<v Speaker 2>and its optimism.

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<v Speaker 1>This next question probably answers itself mighty, But if Alberanesi

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<v Speaker 1>loses after just one turn, whose fault will there be?

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<v Speaker 2>So one thing I've been talking about a lot this

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<v Speaker 2>week with Labour insiders and also with the historian Frank Bonjorna.

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<v Speaker 2>Is in this era of increasing fractiousness and increasing voter

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<v Speaker 2>in patients, like the conventional wisdom was a first term

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<v Speaker 2>government would not be voted out in Australia. One labor

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<v Speaker 2>insider says to me, well, what's the value of conventional

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<v Speaker 2>wisdom anymore? So when you say whose fault is it?

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<v Speaker 2>How do you pass an era? So the context of

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<v Speaker 2>Albanese leadership, which is an era of declining primary vote

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<v Speaker 2>for the major parties, declining tribal allegiances, a political context

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<v Speaker 2>that is more difficult to assert national mandate. You have

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<v Speaker 2>this kind of larger context, So where do you separate

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<v Speaker 2>that from the individual himself Albanesi? And it's a mixture, right,

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<v Speaker 2>So I think you know when insiders complain about Albanese's inarticulacy,

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<v Speaker 2>his haplessness post referendum, that kind of sudden evaporation of

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<v Speaker 2>credibility and direction. They also had a very awkward inheritance

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<v Speaker 2>of inflation as well, a problem that hadn't stricken Australia

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<v Speaker 2>in decades. Where does one separate those two? And I

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<v Speaker 2>think well, certainly for the labor inside it. There was

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<v Speaker 2>some forgiveness for Albanesi given modern times, given the difficulty

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<v Speaker 2>of governing, but also that he is perhaps the wrong man,

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<v Speaker 2>the wrong man in the wrong time.

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<v Speaker 1>It's going to be a big year, Marty. Thank you

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<v Speaker 1>for coming and thank you for your time.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the US today, special counsel Jack Smith, who

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<v Speaker 1>led too unsuccessful federal cases against President elect Donald Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>has resigned. The former war crimes prosecutor have pursued Trump

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<v Speaker 1>on charges of trying to overturn the results of the

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty election and mishandling classified documents. Mister Smith lost

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<v Speaker 1>in both a district court and in the Supreme Court,

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<v Speaker 1>which was made up of three Trump appointed judges. His

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<v Speaker 1>resignation was expected, and a synagogue and cities Inner West

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<v Speaker 1>has been targeted with anti Semitic graffiti and an attempted

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<v Speaker 1>arson attack. Police Commissioner Karen Webbs that the two people

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<v Speaker 1>believe responsible used a clear liquid to light a fire

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<v Speaker 1>at the synagogue, which distinguished itself in a matter of minutes.

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<v Speaker 1>A number of red swashtickers have being spray painted at

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<v Speaker 1>the front New South Wales Premier Chris Mins says the

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<v Speaker 1>attack marks and escalation in anti Semitic crime in New

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<v Speaker 1>South Wales. The investigation has now been taken over by

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<v Speaker 1>counter terrorism police. I'm Daniel James. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening.