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Speaker 1: Well, there's a poll out today put out by themos

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Speaker 1: Au and it shows the Melanowskis government heading for a

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Speaker 1: landslide win that will decimate the Liberal Party in March

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Speaker 1: next year. Let's talk about that. Director of research at

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Speaker 1: Demos is George Hasanakos. George, good evening, thanks for your time.

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Speaker 2: Well, thank you for having me, Matthew.

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Speaker 1: This is an amazing result if it's reflected across the

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Speaker 1: state and two party preferred sixty six to thirty four,

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Speaker 1: So two out of three voters heading for the Labor

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Speaker 1: Party at least either directly primary votes or certainly once

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Speaker 1: preferences are added in.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, that's correct. That's the result that we had,

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Speaker 2: sixty six to thirty four. In Australian elections, you don't

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Speaker 2: usually see a two to one split. This is reminiscent

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Speaker 2: to the result in w Wayne twenty twenty one, where

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Speaker 2: Labor defeated the Liberals seventy to thirty on a two

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Speaker 2: party protruit basis. But that's very rare. That's once in

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Speaker 2: the blue moon stuff.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so it seems and this is interesting and

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Speaker 1: you've picked up on this because you've you've included breakdowns

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Speaker 1: and preps will go straight to that. It's because one

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Speaker 1: of the big issues in the last almost four years

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Speaker 1: now the term of this government was their promise to

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Speaker 1: end ramping. Ramping is doubled, and yet the popularity of

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Speaker 1: the government untarnished by that.

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Speaker 2: Yes, look, we asked about ten issues, and we asked

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Speaker 2: the respondents whether they believe the Melaniscus State government is

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Speaker 2: doing a good or a bad job managing these issues

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Speaker 2: and hospital ramping. You are correct, it has been one

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Speaker 2: of the biggest issues in state politic success a state politics.

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Speaker 2: That's why we included it. And the government is doing poorly.

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Speaker 2: Is only ten percent believe they're doing a good job

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Speaker 2: and fifty two percent believe they're doing a bad job.

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Speaker 1: What rock are they under? That's unreal, But anyway, okay,

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Speaker 1: that's that's their opinion. The algill bloom that they fared

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Speaker 1: badly on that as well.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes, that's right. Only eleven percent said the state

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Speaker 2: government was doing good job on the algor bloom and

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Speaker 2: forty nine percent said that they were doing a bad job.

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Speaker 1: The improvement I suppose we're at swings around the other way,

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Speaker 1: things like education, whaler still works, job creation, and then

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Speaker 1: you start getting a balance before it tips back to

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Speaker 1: those issues like ramping and cost of living in the

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Speaker 1: algal Bloom.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes, that's right. Look, one could argue that these

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Speaker 2: questions ask for people to give if they want to

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Speaker 2: say government's done a good job, they can't just say satisfactory.

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Speaker 2: But nevertheless, there is a core group of four issues

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Speaker 2: housing the algal Bloom, hospital, ramping and cost of living

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Speaker 2: where bad job is all my is around half is

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Speaker 2: between forty seven to fifty three percent. Then you match

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Speaker 2: that against the two to one result we said so far.

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Speaker 2: That means there must be people who are preferencing the

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Speaker 2: Malamusku state gunman all voting for them, but then turning

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Speaker 2: around saying well, look on these issues we're not happy.

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Speaker 1: But it doesn't seem to matter. They're still going to

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Speaker 1: vote for them despite I mean, we saw at the

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Speaker 1: last election voters weren't happy with hospital ramping and the

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Speaker 1: Marshall government was absolutely turfed out of office. Not so

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Speaker 1: this time around.

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Speaker 2: It seems well, look this is the poll at this

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Speaker 2: point in time, and there's a variety of variety of

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Speaker 2: reasons there. You know, Malanuscus is personally popular, he leads

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Speaker 2: Vincent Tazi fifty eight to nineteen on preferred premiere. But

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Speaker 2: also you know Lebels have had their troubles, troubles in

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Speaker 2: the past and I don't have to go through them,

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Speaker 2: and some see them as divided. But that being said, look,

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Speaker 2: this is what's happened up until now. We still have

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Speaker 2: an election campaign to go through and the government needs

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Speaker 2: to navigate these navigate these issues, and it may be

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Speaker 2: that the opposition in the heat of a campaign to

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Speaker 2: make up some ground. Generally when you see poles like

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Speaker 2: this and where the opposition the government day is very

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Speaker 2: much behind and it's all about saving the furniture. The

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Speaker 2: furniture can still be saved the Liberals even with this pole.

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Speaker 1: How would you suggest that would happen? Because gee, it

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Speaker 1: looks dire.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look well there these four issues that we've just discussed, housing,

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Speaker 2: the alge hospital, ramping, cost of living. Now cut through

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Speaker 2: isn't necessarily sure, okay, because there's always a question, well

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Speaker 2: what are you going to do? But that being said,

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Speaker 2: there is fertile ground there. If half the population are dissatisfied,

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Speaker 2: well half of all voters, I should say, are dissatisfied

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Speaker 2: with these issues.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is of course a uniform swing we're talking about,

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Speaker 1: as you would be well aware, Georgia, it's electorate by electorate,

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Speaker 1: and the swings that you're seeing in your poll may

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Speaker 1: not necessarily be the case. I mean, they might be

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Speaker 1: bigger in some electorates, but it won't be uniform on

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Speaker 1: the night.

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Speaker 2: We know this, right, Yeah, yeah, of course, of course.

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Speaker 2: So look, the uniform swing is a good shorthand device

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Speaker 2: for people to estimate what seat results will be. But yes, yes, yes,

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Speaker 2: you're exactly right. But that being said, we look at

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Speaker 2: a pendulum. At the moment, this POLS is just eleven

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Speaker 2: point four percent swing away from the Liberals towards Labor. Now,

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Speaker 2: all the liberals metropolitan seats currently, the one with the

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Speaker 2: safest margin from the last election is brag on the

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Speaker 2: seven point two percent. So there will have to be

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Speaker 2: some significant deviations from the state wide swing if this

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Speaker 2: was reflected on election day for the Liberals to save

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Speaker 2: some metropolitan seats.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that means Vincentazia's seat of Hartley as well.

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Speaker 1: Within in the eleven percent what is it two or

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Speaker 1: three and a four percent? I thought? Or okay, then

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Speaker 1: that's that's gone. If this swing is to be reflected.

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Speaker 2: Yes, if we have eleven and a half percent swing

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Speaker 2: across the state, then it is looking it is looking

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Speaker 2: pretty bad for him to hold on. But that being said,

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Speaker 2: they can make up some ground. He may gains birstal

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Speaker 2: popularity with exposure of the campaign. All isn't lost, but

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Speaker 2: it's not looking good at the moment.

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Speaker 1: What are the various demographics shows as you went through

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Speaker 1: you know, sixty plus and I don't know, twenty five

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Speaker 1: to fifty five or whatever. How does that look? Is

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Speaker 1: it uniform through each of the age groups?

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Speaker 2: So look, we just broke it down by three age

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Speaker 2: groups for this poll, and all of them have a

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Speaker 2: labor two party preferred under fifty four years of age,

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Speaker 2: between eighteen and thirty four and seventy three. Thirty five

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Speaker 2: to fifty four is seventy and fifty five plus is

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Speaker 2: fifty nine percent. But what I thought was interesting from

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Speaker 2: the demographic breakdowns was when we looked at gender, the

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Speaker 2: labor vote was higher amongst males fifty one percent to

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Speaker 2: forty three percent. This is the primary vote among females.

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Speaker 2: Now normally you see the end gap with the Greens

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Speaker 2: and the Liberals. The Liberals do a bit better with men,

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Speaker 2: brings a bit better with women and labor it comes

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Speaker 2: out in the wash.

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Speaker 1: So that was a.

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Speaker 2: Very interesting, interesting takeout, and it may explain some of

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Speaker 2: the appeal of Melanoskis, especially amongst men.

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Speaker 1: Interesting. The other thing that I was interested to see

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Speaker 1: is when you've done a percentage of vote per party

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Speaker 1: and you've got Labor at forty seven percent voting intentions

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Speaker 1: Liberals on twenty one, any other candidate is nineteen percent,

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Speaker 1: almost outpolling the Liberals, and that's just an absolute disaster

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Speaker 1: for the Liberal Party.

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Speaker 2: Well, look, it's fair to say in current Australian politics

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Speaker 2: that others are doing well. For many people, it is

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Speaker 2: more of like a none of the above, people who

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Speaker 2: don't want to vote the major parties and they can't

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Speaker 2: stomach the Greens. What I do find interesting in the

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Speaker 2: South Australian context is if you had to look at

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Speaker 2: our Upper House figures, we didn't break out one nation

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Speaker 2: for the lower House boat, but for the upper House

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Speaker 2: boat we had them on twelve percent, which would be

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Speaker 2: their highest ever bondge in South Australia. They get another

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Speaker 2: one person elected to the Upper House and they'd be

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Speaker 2: within a fighting chance of another as well. So look

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Speaker 2: what I'm saying is South Australia isn't accepted from the

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Speaker 2: current surge for one nation across the country. And it

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Speaker 2: really depends in terms of the Lower House how many

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Speaker 2: candidates they run and what the form of their campaign

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Speaker 2: would be there. Of course that requires a lot more

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Speaker 2: resources than an Upper House campaign, but if they were

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Speaker 2: to put if they were to put in a show there,

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Speaker 2: you could see similar figures in the lower House.

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Speaker 1: Should Vincent Tazia be worried before the election given that

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Speaker 1: you're polling also shows Ashton Hearn as the shadow Health

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Speaker 1: Minister and Ben Hood as a shadow Transport Minister just

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Speaker 1: about as popular as he is.

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Speaker 2: Look looking at those figures. When we looked at positive

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Speaker 2: ratings for the three opposition Liberal people, Tazia, Herne, Hood,

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Speaker 2: they're all out the same. I'm fifteen percent. Yes, yes,

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Speaker 2: you're yes, you're right. But when we look at the negatives,

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Speaker 2: Herne and Huda are at about a quota sor quote

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Speaker 2: a quarter, twenty four to twenty percent, and Tazi is

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Speaker 2: on thirty percent. But there's a huge amount of don't knows,

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Speaker 2: Like there is an argument to be said that Vincent

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Speaker 2: Tazi has not been fully shown to the electric there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of people who either don't know who he

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Speaker 2: is or you know, who aren't moved either way. So

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Speaker 2: you know, obviously these things are not now perview, but

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Speaker 2: there is an argument to be had that Vincent Tazia

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Speaker 2: still had, still deserves more of a shot.

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Speaker 1: All right, So I mean, if the Libs of any

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Speaker 1: money in their campaign chests, they should almost start advertising

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Speaker 1: pretty much. Now, that's what it says.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, well, you know, yes, that's true, that's true.

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Speaker 2: This is the theme of fixed term election. We know

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Speaker 2: when it's going to come. You can do you can

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Speaker 2: do the long run up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well that's it, you know, especially as you say

185
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Speaker 1: there's some areas they could capitalize on. I mean, that

186
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Speaker 1: would be the smart thing. The question is what money

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Speaker 1: do they have in the war chest, and that's the answer,

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Speaker 1: we don't know. But nevertheless, boy, these figures, I mean again,

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Speaker 1: your state wide swing would leave the Liberals with around

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Speaker 1: what three to six seats?

191
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Speaker 2: You say, yes, yes, yes, that's right. So if you

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Speaker 2: have a look at the pendulum, and I apologize if

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Speaker 2: I get some of these names from Schubert, the wronger

194
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Speaker 2: Mount Gambia, Chaffey, Flinders and mckillopall have liberal margins greater

195
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Speaker 2: than the swing against the liberals at the moment. There's

196
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Speaker 2: a few independence in there. Mount Gambia is a vacancy. Now, yes,

197
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Speaker 2: you know they could pick up some of those what

198
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Speaker 2: would otherwise be super safely liberal seats that are held

199
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Speaker 2: by independents. So three to six. It depends what happens

200
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Speaker 2: in those seats, but three to six is what is

201
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Speaker 2: what we're saying based on the swing in this pot.

202
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Speaker 1: And fear to say too the two by elections of

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Speaker 1: Malinowskas government won along the way in Norwood at or

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Speaker 1: Dunstan now and Black in the southern suburbs. The Libs

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Speaker 1: they ain't going to get those back on these numbers.

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Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, I would very it would be very.

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Speaker 1: Very unlikely, unreal. All right, we'll see how it plays

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Speaker 1: out as we get a bit closer. Are you doing

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Speaker 1: other poles You must be in the lead up as well.

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Speaker 2: Oh yes, yes, yes we'll be back with Bell. Don't

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Speaker 2: worry about that.

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Speaker 1: We might have a chat again. Thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for your time tonight.

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Speaker 2: That's okay, thanks a lot.

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Speaker 1: Is George Hassanakos, who is director of researcher Demos. Are

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Speaker 1: you