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Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gadigel

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Speaker 1: people of the Eur Nation. Hello, and welcome to the

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Speaker 1: Real Story with Joe Hildebrand. I'm Joe Hildebrand. But that's

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Speaker 1: not important right now. What's important is who's going to

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Speaker 1: win the US presidential election. The vote is just two

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Speaker 1: weeks away. And I've got someone on the show right here,

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Speaker 1: right now who reckons he knows the answer he is

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Speaker 1: going to call it. And this is a political guru

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Speaker 1: who got the twenty sixteen result right when everybody else

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Speaker 1: got it wrong. And you might be surprised who is picking.

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Speaker 1: Plus the PM's house on a hill, the cliff top

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Speaker 1: mansion that cost four point three million dollars and the

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Speaker 1: PM just bought it in the middle of a housing crisis.

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Speaker 1: It's unbelievable, isn't it. Yes, it is. That's why I'm

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Speaker 1: choosing just not to believe it. It didn't happen. As far

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Speaker 1: as I'm concerned, there is no way that Albo, who

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Speaker 1: I know and love and is a smart and sensible

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Speaker 1: and decent guy, would ever be that silly or stupid.

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Speaker 1: So clearly it was just a bad dream. Okay, wake

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Speaker 1: up now, See never happened. Don't you feel better now?

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Speaker 1: I know everyone in the Labor Party does. Plus, speaking

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Speaker 1: of the Labor Party, how are they going to go

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Speaker 1: to the next election doing a deal with the Greens

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Speaker 1: when the Greens have been infiltrated by a bunch of

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Speaker 1: terrorist apologists. Well they're not. I've got the amazing secret

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Speaker 1: solution that it looks like Labor will turn to. And

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Speaker 1: you heard it all here first on the real story

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Speaker 1: we picked this week's ago, all that much much more

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Speaker 1: coming up. So the first thing I want to talk

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Speaker 1: about is this revelation after revelation after revelation in every

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Speaker 1: Masthead news organization, from the Australian to the ABC. And

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Speaker 1: you know when the ABC is coming after the Greens,

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Speaker 1: they must have done something pretty bad about all these

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Speaker 1: what you might call terrorist adjacent candidates who seem to

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Speaker 1: be popping their head up for the party. These are

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Speaker 1: candidates have been so elected to run for the Greens

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Speaker 1: in local government elections where they seem to have a

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Speaker 1: pretty strong focus on foreign policy. I'm not sure if

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Speaker 1: they're at the right tier of government for that. But

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Speaker 1: also senators in the actual Australian Parliament who refusing to

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Speaker 1: condemn even the most openly vile, evil acts of terror

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Speaker 1: committed by the most vile and evil organizations. Now, I

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Speaker 1: just want to give you a couple of examples, and

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Speaker 1: I don't want to name any of these people. A

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Speaker 1: lot of them are young. They've done dumb stuff. And

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Speaker 1: I had plenty of dumb stuff when I was young

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Speaker 1: as well. In fact, I actually performed for a Green's

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Speaker 1: fundraiser when I was at UNI. I was an unreconstructed

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Speaker 1: student socialist and I was the lead singer of a

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Speaker 1: band called Luke Warm and the Tepperds. Anyway, like I said,

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Speaker 1: we've all done stuff. So there's one ACT Greens candidate.

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Speaker 1: So this is a candidate for the act Legislative Assembly,

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Speaker 1: so kind of states territory government, kind of more like

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Speaker 1: a local government, but whatever. And he's written on Twitter

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Speaker 1: or x as it's now known, quote, remove hesbler from

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Speaker 1: the list of terrorist organizations. Question mark. You're hearing it

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Speaker 1: more and more. I'm not sure what circles this guy's

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Speaker 1: moving in because I'm not hearing that. It's like, oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: I was just having dinner last night and someone said,

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Speaker 1: you know what we should do, remove Hesbeler from the

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Speaker 1: list of terrorist organizations. Oh good a, Joe, how are

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Speaker 1: you going? Oh gooda, Bob. How lovely days? That's sure,

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Speaker 1: is hey? I was thinking, you know what we should do,

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Speaker 1: remove Hesbela from the list of terrorist organizations. No one

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Speaker 1: is hearing that except you anyway, see how he goes.

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Speaker 1: There was another act Greens Cande and again I just

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Speaker 1: do not know where they get these people a whist.

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Speaker 1: I do know it's Australian National University. But point being,

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Speaker 1: this person wrote a blog post under a false name,

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Speaker 1: and this was found out by the ABC. Right, this

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Speaker 1: is the ABC going after the Greens, which is kind

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Speaker 1: of like it's kind of like the alp Terry itself

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Speaker 1: apartment does every other day. But take my point, this

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Speaker 1: is not a right wing conspiracy here. So this candidate

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Speaker 1: has written, and she's very young and you know, hopefully

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Speaker 1: she'll grow out of it. She's written a blog post

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Speaker 1: titled on Martyrdom. I mean again, that's what I do.

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Speaker 1: After I've said goodbye to Bob and we both agreed

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Speaker 1: that Hesbela should be removed from the list of terror organizations,

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Speaker 1: I go home to write a blog post on martyrdom

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Speaker 1: under a false name. And in this blog post she's

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Speaker 1: compared Osama bin Laden to Jesus, not some South American guy,

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Speaker 1: like the Jesus, Jesus Christ, Son of God. And she's

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Speaker 1: put him in the same category as Osama bin Larded.

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Speaker 1: So she's posted this quote, I daydream about dying brutally

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Speaker 1: for my country, my family, my lovers. Well, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if they'd allow that in the sort

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Speaker 1: of culture that a Sarma had been Laden would endorse

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Speaker 1: quite frankly anyway. And it goes on to say, I've

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Speaker 1: gone on to idolize several other martyrs Buggut Singh, Hussaying,

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Speaker 1: Ibin Ali, Guru Teg Bahadur, Shai Grivara, Oh, hello, Jesus

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Speaker 1: Christ Balachandran Prabakaran, Joan of Arc, Osama bin Laden, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: That is quite That is quite the list. You know

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Speaker 1: how they say, you know, if you could just invite

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Speaker 1: you six people to a dinner party, who that's a

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Speaker 1: conversation starter. And you know how that conversation would start.

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Speaker 1: You know what, I think we should remove Hesbela from

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Speaker 1: the list of terrorist organizations.

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Speaker 2: That's where you'd actually hear that's where you would hear

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Speaker 2: that more and more at that dinner party.

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Speaker 1: Anyway. Now, this was claimed by the Greens and the

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Speaker 1: candidate or whatever to have just been a creative writing exercise,

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Speaker 1: all right, creative writing exercise. Never mind the fact that

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Speaker 1: this is a finance student. So it was just a misunderstanding.

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Speaker 1: It was a creative writing exercise that this candidate has

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Speaker 1: just decided to do under a false name for no

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Speaker 1: apparent reason. Except when the ABC started asking questions about this.

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Speaker 1: This creative writing exercise got even more creative because someone,

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Speaker 1: possibly the creative writer, went back to the block and

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Speaker 1: changed it. And so instead of saying shak Jesus Christ

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Speaker 1: Balachandran prabakharan Joan of arc Osama bin Laden, et cetera,

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Speaker 1: they've taken out the name Balachandran Prabakaran, which raises more

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Speaker 1: questions than it answers. I don't know why. Perhaps that

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Speaker 1: was one martyr they didn't want in there, and they've changed,

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Speaker 1: et cetera to laugh my ass off, lmao. I had

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Speaker 1: to get a millennial to translate that for me, but

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Speaker 1: that's what it stands for, laugh my ass off. So

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Speaker 1: just gone back and made it look like a joke.

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Speaker 1: After being called by the ABC, and then said, oh, yes,

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Speaker 1: it was just a joke because look see it says

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Speaker 1: lm am still not sure what the punchline is and

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Speaker 1: abab Laden don't duh, thank you very much. I'll be

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Speaker 1: here all week dry the veil AnyWho ah, But that

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Speaker 1: might just be something that happens in the Act, just

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Speaker 1: the Act Legislative Assembly. Greens, the ones who are actually

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Speaker 1: in a coalition government with the Labor Party, I'm so

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Speaker 1: sorry about that. I can't control what happens in the

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Speaker 1: Canberra bubble. But that's just them, right, that's just It's

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Speaker 1: not like anyone else in the Greens is crazy, oh

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Speaker 1: were It's so because another Greens candate, this time running

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Speaker 1: for Bayside Council in Sydney, also seems a bit confused

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Speaker 1: about what constitutes a terrorist organization. What's the different And

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Speaker 1: we've heard from the very same ABAC that caught out

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Speaker 1: the Greens, an ABAC reporter being confused as to why

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Speaker 1: Hesbeler flags were banned but not Israeli flags. Why why

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Speaker 1: with Hesbela and no mass terrorists? And why isn't Israeli terrorists?

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Speaker 1: Because aren't they terrorists? To it? Well not, They're a

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Speaker 1: country you see, they're a country, they're a state. They're

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Speaker 1: recognized by the United Nations, not as much as they'd

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Speaker 1: like to be sure, but they're actually a country with

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Speaker 1: their own laws, democracy, parliament, standing army, et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: But that seems to be a bit too confusing for

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Speaker 1: some other Greens candidates. This guy, and again I don't

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Speaker 1: want to name, you can read the whole story in

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Speaker 1: the Daily Telegraph. Who've got a anonymous tip off from

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Speaker 1: someone could have been anyone, could have been an incredibly

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Speaker 1: handsome podcaster who knows he's written again on social media

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Speaker 1: out for everyone to see a quote IDF the Israeli

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Speaker 1: Defense Force are total terrorists, not just partial terrorists, total terrorists.

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Speaker 1: It's proven, lots of evidence out there about it. I

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Speaker 1: reckon they are worse than Hamas or isis what the

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Speaker 1: de Isis have to do. It's just brought in literally

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Speaker 1: the worst terrorist organization and the world has ever seen

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Speaker 1: like this is an organization. ISIS is an organization most

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Speaker 1: famous for being more extreme than Al Qaeda, more extreme

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Speaker 1: than the guys who flew planes into the World Trade Center.

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Speaker 1: So this guy's actually outdone the Issama bin Laden chick.

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Speaker 1: He's actually Trumpter just said hey, I'll see your Assama

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Speaker 1: bin Laden and I'll raise you. Isis it is just

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Speaker 1: a like, even if you're going to do the whole

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Speaker 1: false equivocation of you know, IDF, just as bad as

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Speaker 1: a mass okay, which the Greens and all these activists

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Speaker 1: do all the time. Okay, at least I've seen that before.

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Speaker 1: But isis like, where does that come from?

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Speaker 2: Guys been sitting about it and it says it's proven.

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Speaker 2: Just ask the guy running for Bayside Council.

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Speaker 1: But at least it's just these crazies in you know,

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Speaker 1: the act Legisltive Assembly or local government in Sydney who

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Speaker 1: are running around saying so crazy stuff. Right. No one

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Speaker 1: in the actual Australian Parliament would be a terror apologist,

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Speaker 1: someone who refused to condemn say oh I don't know

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Speaker 1: the October seven terror attacks, or say that clearly her

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Speaker 1: mass has to be removed from Power and the Gaza

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Speaker 1: Strip if we're going to have a lasting piece. No,

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Speaker 1: because we have our dear friend Senator Marine Ferruki just

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Speaker 1: a poor innocent young foot soldiern No, she's a deputy

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Speaker 1: leader of the Greens or one of many deputy leaders.

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Speaker 1: I think they have a few of them anyway, point babe,

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Speaker 1: Senator Ferruki was the guest star at an event that

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Speaker 1: was held in a mosque and organized obviously with that

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Speaker 1: mosque that openly supports Hesbela, that openly supports Hesbela, who

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Speaker 1: has put on its Facebook page pictures of kids wearing

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Speaker 1: Hesbela T shirts and praised the leader of hesbler who

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Speaker 1: was slain. She is gone to that mosque as its

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Speaker 1: guest stars. It's featured kind of guest you know, come

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Speaker 1: and see Senator Mariene Frukie, Green's deputy leader. And you

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Speaker 1: know who organized that event, the guy from Bayside Council

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Speaker 1: who said that the IDF was worse than isis. They're

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Speaker 1: there together, it's amazing. And that's just in the last

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Speaker 1: few weeks. That's just the ones who've come out in

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Speaker 1: the last few weeks. So we all know the Greens

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Speaker 1: are a bunch of crazies, right, But what does the

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Speaker 1: Great Australian Labor Party do about it? Because of course

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Speaker 1: Labor relies on preferences from the Greens from far left

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Speaker 1: people who come back to the sensible center left rather

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Speaker 1: than go to the Libs or other fringe parties to

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Speaker 1: much the same way that the Libs rely on the Nationals,

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Speaker 1: with whom they're in an actual formal coalition, but also

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Speaker 1: preferences from one nation that come back overwhelmingly about sixty

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Speaker 1: forty seventy thirty to the Libs. The Greens preferences come

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Speaker 1: about eighty twenty back to the Labor Party. So the

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Speaker 1: Labour Party's got all these extremists who are horrible and

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Speaker 1: making their lives miserable, who are often endorsing vandalism or

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Speaker 1: refusing to condemn it. They've camped outside electorate officers associated

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Speaker 1: with all these crazy nutjob radicals. How do they live

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Speaker 1: with them, how do they have anything to do with

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Speaker 1: them politically, or how do they at least break that

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Speaker 1: intimate connection. If the Greens are kind of terrorist apologists

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Speaker 1: adjacent or indeed in some cases just terrorist apologists, how

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Speaker 1: can Labor sit next to that? Well they can't. They

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Speaker 1: need a circuit breaker. They need something or someone else

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Speaker 1: a buffer between them and the Greens. And guess what

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Speaker 1: you heard it here first weeks ago on the real

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Speaker 1: story with Joe Hildebrand. That's me that there was another

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Speaker 1: party that is broken away from the Greens, actually founded

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Speaker 1: by a former Green who saw what was happening in

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Speaker 1: the party and was horrified. And that party at the

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Speaker 1: upcoming Queensland election has just done a deal with the

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Speaker 1: Labor Party for the two of them to preference each

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Speaker 1: other first before the Greens. So Labor is now preferencing

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Speaker 1: that party before the Green. So it's no longer immediately

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Speaker 1: playing touchy feely foot seas with the Greens. It's got

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Speaker 1: this other party from an ex Green, which could capture

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Speaker 1: a lot of the soft Green vote. And when I

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Speaker 1: say Green, I really mean Green, because this is the

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Speaker 1: legalized cannabis party. But these guys are now the kind

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Speaker 1: of the peace loving hippies that the Greens used to

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Speaker 1: be saying, oh well they know and they just like

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Speaker 1: a bit of a smoke or whatever. I gave all

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Speaker 1: that stuff up years ago, but whatever. But the point being,

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Speaker 1: they're much more reasonable, a whole bunch of other issues,

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Speaker 1: and they provide an alternative to the Greens that Labour

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Speaker 1: can actually live with. And the big question, of course,

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Speaker 1: would this actually happen. Well, you heard the plan rolled

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Speaker 1: out first here on this very podcast and now in

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Speaker 1: the Queensland election, it is actually happening. Of course, Labor

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Speaker 1: is going to lose that election. They are going to

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Speaker 1: be absolutely smashed a white before with them, but that

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Speaker 1: alliance forms a template for the upcoming federal election and

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Speaker 1: they are in talks to do the exact same thing.

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Speaker 1: And this provides Labor with this silverable at this get

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Speaker 1: out of jail free card where they can use another

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Speaker 1: party and get their preferences, still get preferences from the

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Speaker 1: Greens without looking like they're CosIng up to them, or

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Speaker 1: even indeed actually CosIng up to them, and have a

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Speaker 1: different sort of first partner at the ballot box. So

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Speaker 1: there you go. You heard it here first. It's happening

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Speaker 1: in the Queensland election, and you can bet your bippy

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Speaker 1: it's going to happen in the federal one too. Our

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Speaker 1: guest this week is one of the great political master

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Speaker 1: minds of Australian politics, but you've never heard of him.

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Speaker 1: He's a campaign guru. He's worked on every federal election

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Speaker 1: campaign for the Labor Party since two thousand and seven.

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Speaker 1: He's worked on every state campaign in New South Wales

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Speaker 1: since nineteen ninety nine, and he reckons he knows who's

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Speaker 1: going to win the US presidential election. So, without further ado,

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Speaker 1: let's bring him mind, Timmy g Tim Gleeson, Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the real story. How are you good?

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Speaker 3: In the words a popcard, good good. It's a pleasure

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Speaker 3: to be here, Joseph, good.

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Speaker 1: To sue, you, good to see you. Let's firstly not

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Speaker 1: talk about the house that Albo didn't buy, because, of course,

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Speaker 1: no prime minister would ever buy a multimillion dollar mansion

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Speaker 1: on a cliff top facing the water in the middle

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Speaker 1: of a cost of living and housing crisis, would they. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's right, it didn't happen. See exactly what I told you.

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Speaker 1: But let's get straight to the big game, the big dance,

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Speaker 1: the US presidential election. Now, just before we get into

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Speaker 1: sort of some of the amazing little tidbits of information

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Speaker 1: you've got that could unlock the secret of who's going

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Speaker 1: to win, how have you seen the campaign play out

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Speaker 1: so far? Obviously, as someone on the labor side of politics,

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Speaker 1: you would instinctively be a Democrat. But you actually picked

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump winning in twenty sixteen when virtually everybody else

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Speaker 1: said absolutely no way.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, obviously, to join young labor you have to

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Speaker 3: be passion you know, you get surgically removed from Young

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Speaker 3: Labor if you don't have a passion for US politics.

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Speaker 3: So obviously I'm an expert from day one.

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Speaker 1: How are you seeing Kamala Harris and Donald Trump facing

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Speaker 1: off at the moment? I mean, she obviously won that

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Speaker 1: first and only debate between the two of them. Is

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Speaker 1: that going to be enough to carry her to the

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Speaker 1: White House?

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Speaker 3: No? I don't think it is, Joseph, and I think

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Speaker 3: the results of that debate have sort of been a

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Speaker 3: false economy. Since that debate, she hasn't done any media,

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Speaker 3: and then she was forced into doing media because of

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Speaker 3: the pressure that was applied to her, and they've found

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Speaker 3: out pretty quickly that's not her strong suit.

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Speaker 1: It's very much a case I think with Kamala, and

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Speaker 1: I've said a few times that the more people see

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Speaker 1: of her, the less they seem to like her. The

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Speaker 1: more she seems to come across as either grating or

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Speaker 1: annoying or not across her policy details or even what

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Speaker 1: her policies are. Is that part of the problem for it?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I spoke to somebody in the Democrat Party's the

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Speaker 3: effect that being charitable adversary interviews aren't her specialty, which.

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Speaker 1: I think pretty it nicely.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And they said that in hindsight, they would have

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Speaker 3: been better off wearing the heat for not doing those

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Speaker 3: interviews rather than caving in and starting to do a

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Speaker 3: realm of them. She was so poor to begin with.

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Speaker 3: Now she has to keep doing them to try and

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Speaker 3: improve them, and to be honest, she just not that

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Speaker 3: good at them.

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Speaker 1: And they just keep getting worse and worse and worse.

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Speaker 1: It's almost like a gambler trying to chase his losses.

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Speaker 1: I've got to make up for the last car crash interview,

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Speaker 1: so I'll do another one, and then there's an even

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Speaker 1: bigger car crash, and on it goes. What about that?

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Speaker 1: You've found an incredible statistic, And this is something that

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Speaker 1: none of the America files, the US politics obsessives that

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Speaker 1: I've spoken of, have actually picked up on yet. But

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Speaker 1: there's something very particular about a couple of the swing states,

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Speaker 1: including Pennsylvania, that could determine the election outcome. Tell us

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Speaker 1: what that is.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So in America, it's not because it's a Tuesday. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: there's about twenty odd states where you get two or

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Speaker 3: three hours off from work, paid work to vote. There's

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Speaker 3: another bunch of states where you get time off work

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Speaker 3: to vote, but you don't get paid. But there's another

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Speaker 3: bunch of states, which include Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina

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Speaker 3: through the key swing states where you don't get any

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Speaker 3: time off work. It's not mandated by states, and you'd

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Speaker 3: have to leave work and lose paid to go and vote.

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Speaker 3: So unless you're really passionate about the candidate, it's really

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Speaker 3: hard and onerous for you to get to the ballast box.

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Speaker 1: Well, so, I mean, obviously, people, if you know, whoever

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Speaker 1: wins Pennsylvania almost certainly wins the whole election. So even

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Speaker 1: if you just look at Pennsylvania alone, So basically you

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Speaker 1: have to be willing to I think, as nevill Rand

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Speaker 1: said about this, to had a Labour Party get up

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Speaker 1: to your armpits in blood and shit. But you've really

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Speaker 1: got to wade through the hot lava if you want

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Speaker 1: to vote in Pennsylvania. So you have to be extremely

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Speaker 1: committed to and passionate about your candidate. That to me

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Speaker 1: feels like something that's going to favor Trump voters way

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Speaker 1: over Harris voters, Is that right?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Oh?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, And the Larks election because of the COVID crisis.

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Speaker 3: Forty six percent of the population voted by personal vote,

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Speaker 3: which is a complete outlier for US politics. I think

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Speaker 3: it was sixteen percent in two thousand and sixteen, or

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Speaker 3: was thirteen percent in twenty twelve, and eleven percent in

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Speaker 3: two thousand and eight, So that numbers.

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Speaker 1: Been creeping up, and then it explodes Joe Biden's hiding

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Speaker 1: in his basement all those pre poles. Donald Trump wins

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Speaker 1: the votes on election day, but all those prepoles then

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Speaker 1: come in in favor of Biden, and Harris isn't going

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Speaker 1: to get that big preep.

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Speaker 3: You'd have to ask yourself how many of those people

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Speaker 3: who voted for Joe Biden, say in Pennsylvania, would have

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Speaker 3: got left their desk or their machine, whatever it is,

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Speaker 3: and went to the ballot box to vote for Joe Biden.

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Speaker 1: And lost money doing it. Yes, Whereas if you're voting

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Speaker 1: for Donald Trump, you were going to you are going

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Speaker 1: to walk through the valley of death.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he might turn people off, but he also turns

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Speaker 3: them out. If you're voting for Donald Trump, you get

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Speaker 3: to the ballot box.

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Speaker 1: And I said earlier that this is very much Kamala

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Speaker 1: Harris's election to lou As it seems. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: think with Donald Trump, he's kind of maxed out. I

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Speaker 1: mean after everything that Donald Trump's done or hasn't done,

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Speaker 1: or been through, you know, the conviction, which was pretty

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Speaker 1: trumped up and spurious. But nonetheless, if you're voting for

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump and you haven't been shaken off yet, you

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Speaker 1: are sticking with that guy like a barnacle to a ship.

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Speaker 1: Whereas Harris had all these sort of votes that seemed

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Speaker 1: to come to her as soon as she became the

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Speaker 1: presumptive candidate, but they weren't sort of hard and fast votes,

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Speaker 1: and they now seem to be floating away. Is that

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Speaker 1: about right?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if you're voting for Donald Trump, you're voting for

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump. Like this means been president for forty years,

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Speaker 3: he's been in public life if you want to call

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Speaker 3: greater celebrity for thirty years.

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Speaker 1: The celebrity that's.

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Speaker 3: Convicted of numerous offenses, basically organized the riot to storm

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Speaker 3: the Capitol, and now he's basically and basically now a

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Speaker 3: ray with the Pixie's giving one half of our speeches

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Speaker 3: where he talks about mosquitoes and golfing grips and chip shots.

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Speaker 3: So he's not chasing any swing voters, he has his votes,

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Speaker 3: where Krmala Harris has to put together a whole bunch

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Speaker 3: of swinging voters and regular Democrats to get her out

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Speaker 3: of the line and new voters they are as.

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Speaker 1: Well, so she'll get obviously there anyone but Trump vote

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Speaker 1: the people who really hate Donald Trump and just will

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Speaker 1: vote for his opponent no matter who he or she is.

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Speaker 1: I can't imagine she has many people who love Karmla

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Speaker 1: because she's Karmela, not just because she's the Democratic nominee.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I can't believe she has much of a

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Speaker 1: personal following. Does that say no?

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Speaker 3: And in her defense, she's got a somewhat difficult message

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Speaker 3: to say. She's got to defend her own record yet

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Speaker 3: at the same time saying it's time for a change,

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Speaker 3: and that's why she's been talking a lot on about

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Speaker 3: day one. I'm going to do this when she's actually

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Speaker 3: vice president.

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Speaker 1: What is that just horrendous phrase she keeps using to

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Speaker 1: become unburdened by what was or something like that.

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Speaker 3: What can be unburdened by what has been?

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Speaker 1: That's her, isn't it?

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Speaker 3: That's sums up. It was a great Saturday Night Live

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Speaker 3: skit on the weekend, which basically was family feud, and

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Speaker 3: she hit the buzzer and they said, name something you

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Speaker 3: hide in a glove box, and her response was the

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Speaker 3: actress playing her was up from a middle class.

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Speaker 1: Family's all she's been programmed to say.

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Speaker 3: And so when Saturday Night Live were actually really having

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Speaker 3: a go at you and you're a Democrat a few

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Speaker 3: weeks out, it's also a red flat.

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Speaker 4: Instead of having Alec Baldwin doing Trump, they've got someone

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Speaker 4: doing Carver, you know.

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Speaker 1: So let's just get it out on the table. Then

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Speaker 1: it's lay it all down. You think Donald Trump is

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Speaker 1: going to win the US presidential election.

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Speaker 3: I do, because obviously it basically comes down to seven

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Speaker 3: swing states and that Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 3: and Wisconsin. And so of those swing states, I think

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Speaker 3: that's ninety three electoral College votes. So basically whoever wins

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Speaker 3: those or the majority of those, will win the election.

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Speaker 3: In twenty sixteen, Trump won all of those bar Nevada,

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Speaker 3: which is really tough for a Republican to win. And

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty Biden took them all back except for

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Speaker 3: North Carolina. And then the results were eerily the same.

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Speaker 3: It was like three hundred and six to two thirty two.

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Speaker 3: It was a similar result for it was from twenty

431
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 3: sixteen to twenty twenty, just flipped the other way. So really,

432
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,119
Speaker 3: if you can win those states, you'll win the election.

433
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 1: And two seventy is obviously the magic number. You've got

434
00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 1: five hundred and thirty eight electoral College votes. You've got

435
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 1: to win a majority of those. It's not exactly a

436
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 1: popular vote. And of those swing states, I mean, obviously

437
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,880
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is way ahead in Georgia, obviously still had

438
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: South Carolina, and Pennsylvania's is the key one. I think

439
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 1: it's got the most electoral College votes, and it seems

440
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 1: to be a real classic Middle American battleground state. And

441
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 1: that is where if you want to vote for your candidate,

442
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 1: you have to be prepared to actually take time off,

443
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 1: lose money for that time, queue up for god knows

444
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 1: how long on polling days sometimes there are wits of

445
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 1: hours on end, and you've really got to want your

446
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 1: guy or girl to win.

447
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,360
Speaker 3: You've really got to line up. And the latest polling

448
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 3: from Nate Silva, who combines all those polls, and he's

449
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 3: not a Republican has now Trump just zero point five

450
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 3: behind in Pennsylvania, and he's gained every week from the

451
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 3: last three weeks. And the interesting thing to note also

452
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:04,959
Speaker 3: is Trump's polling vote public opinion polls vote is always

453
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 3: lower than it is on election day. In twenty sixteen,

454
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 3: he was around forty three and a half percent in

455
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 3: the in the polls on election day and he got

456
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 3: forty six point one percent of the vote. And in

457
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,439
Speaker 3: twenty twenty he was forty three and a half and

458
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 3: ended up with forty six point eight percent of the vote.

459
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 3: So basically there's a couple of percent that won't admit

460
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 3: over the phone or online they're going to vote for

461
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 3: Donald Trump.

462
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 1: The famous Trump voter I'm.

463
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 3: Not racist, but one of those type things. But and

464
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 3: if you take that into consideration, and the way those

465
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 3: seven swing states are trending, where he's up in four

466
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 3: or five already, that it's getting to a stage where

467
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 3: it could be really, really difficult to find a way

468
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 3: where she can come up with two seventy.

469
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 1: So Trump is actually in a stronger position now despite

470
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 1: everything than he was in twenty sixteen when he won.

471
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, Hillary Clinton was in a lot better position now

472
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 3: than Kamala Harris's so a lot better position, which should

473
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 3: be a red flag. I'm only into red flags.

474
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 1: At the moment. Joseph a red flag after.

475
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 3: The Sydney Swans red final, I said, in hindsight, there

476
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 3: were red flags all over the place. So I've come

477
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 3: on here with a mentality of just looking at red

478
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 3: flags everywhere in the Democrat campaign.

479
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 1: That is why you are the smartest man in Australia.

480
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 3: She just raised a billion dollars. Come on up, Harrison.

481
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,919
Speaker 3: Yesterday on the front page of the New York Times

482
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,640
Speaker 3: was she needs more money. So I don't know.

483
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 1: Now. Again, as I said before, you're one of those

484
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: kind of outside the box thinkers who identifies stuff that

485
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 1: a lot of people may have missed. What are your

486
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 1: three or four hot takes on this election campaign that

487
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 1: may have slipped under the radar for the rest of us.

488
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:02,199
Speaker 3: The importance of primaries. There wasn't any primary with Democrat campaign,

489
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 3: so basically a candidate was anointed and appointed without any

490
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 3: sort of fighting along the way, and it's come back

491
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 3: and hurt the Democrats.

492
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 1: So the need has been bled.

493
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 3: Yes. Another one is it can't all be dessert. It's

494
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 3: got to be some meat first before dinner. You have

495
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 3: to do some hard interviews at the start of the campaign,

496
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:28,880
Speaker 3: not just podcasts apologies Joe, or appearances on the View

497
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 3: or so forth, unless you're gone through primary.

498
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 1: Three minutes then the View, not the other way around.

499
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, you should be doing sixty minutes in February, not

500
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 3: in October basically, and then you should be hitting the

501
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 3: podcast scene with basketballers. Another one is the VP has

502
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 3: got to bring something to the table. He or she

503
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 3: has to compliment you. George W. Bush had Dick Cheney,

504
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 3: so people are a bit concerned. Is he really Ronald

505
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 3: Reagan losing his faculties had George Bush? Tim Waltz is

506
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 3: in now a knucklehead. He's yeah, he's Chuck Norris. He's

507
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 3: missing an action.

508
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: At the Mammoth Hope. He was the one who coined

509
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 1: the kind of you know, they're just weird positioning of

510
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 1: Trump and Vance. But that's all.

511
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 3: I think that's what got him the job. He's one

512
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 3: sentence saying they're just weird. You probably need more qualifications

513
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 3: than a good one liner.

514
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 1: Okay, and your last hot take, Timmy.

515
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 3: G Netflix, Apple TV. The wrest of them, they'll be

516
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 3: piling the documentaries getting them ready on this campaign, which

517
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 3: has been horrific. There'll be more finger pointing Democrats than

518
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 3: there was by Tom Cruise in the last US see

519
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 3: the few good men that it's it's going to be.

520
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 3: As an American guy who I know spoke to me

521
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 3: the other day, I said, how's it looking? He said,

522
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 3: put it this way. I haven't bought any champagne for

523
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 3: election night, just stocking up on Scotch and I think

524
00:29:58,200 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 3: that sums it up.

525
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 1: That's just too perfect. Tim Gleason, political guru, extraordinary. Thank

526
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: you so much for joining us on the real story.

527
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 3: Absolute pleasure, Joseph. And of course if this doesn't turn out,

528
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 3: you've got to burn it. If it doesn't work.

529
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: That's right, that's right. We'll get Netflix to make a

530
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 1: documentary on where this podcast all went horribly wrong.

531
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 3: Yes, can we record the one where she wins?

532
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 4: Record the alternative ethnic Love your work Mate?

533
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: Next up this week, I just wanted to talk about

534
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: the fact that the Prime Minister did not buy a

535
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 1: four point three million dollar cliff top house in the

536
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 1: middle of a housing crisis. Just a quick reminder that

537
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 1: that didn't happen, and he's exactly what I've got to

538
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: say about that not happening, and I stand by that.

539
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 1: And that's all we have time for this week. Thank

540
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Has always been absolute pleasure.

541
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 1: If you're putting any money on Donald Trump winning the

542
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: US election, please give me a ten percent cut, because

543
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 1: remember you heard it here first. If you like what

544
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 1: you heard, leave us a review. Hit the five star thing.

545
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: That's the only button that works, by the way, just

546
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 1: the five star one. Don't even bother trying any of

547
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 1: the other ones. And you can follow me on Instagram

548
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: at Joe Underscore Hildebrand. Slide into my dms if you

549
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 1: want anything talked about on the show, if you've got

550
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: anything you'd like discuss, any questions you want answered, you

551
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,479
Speaker 1: can also email us at the Real Story at novatpodcasts

552
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: dot com dot au. And of course you can read

553
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 1: my columns and the Daily Telegraph and all news. Court

554
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: Master heads around the country on every Monday and Saturday.

555
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 1: That's all and we'll see you next week. Take care,