WEBVTT - Why Israel and Hamas agreed to Trump’s peace deal

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<v Speaker 1>Almost two years to the day. Since October seven, Israel

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<v Speaker 1>and Tamas have agreed to the first phase of Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's peace plan for Gaza. The agreement involves the release

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<v Speaker 1>of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, with Israel

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<v Speaker 1>pulling back its troops to an agreed uponline and allowing

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<v Speaker 1>aid into Gaza. The first hostages are expected to be

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<v Speaker 1>released as soon as this weekend. I'm Ruby Jones, and

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<v Speaker 1>you're listening to seven.

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<v Speaker 2>AM today Middle East correspondent for The Economist, Greg Carlstrom

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<v Speaker 2>on the negotiations that got us here and what the

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<v Speaker 2>future of Gaza looks like.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Friday, October ten.

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<v Speaker 3>Evening. We are coming on the air with breaking news.

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<v Speaker 3>President Trump has just announced that Israel and Hamas have

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<v Speaker 3>agreed to the first phase of a peace plan that

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<v Speaker 3>eventually could end the war in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>So Greg, let's start with what both sides have just

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<v Speaker 1>agreed to tell me about the deal and when it

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<v Speaker 1>takes effect.

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<v Speaker 3>So the deal is meant to be signed at noon

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<v Speaker 3>in Egypt on Thursday. So once it's signed, the fighting

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<v Speaker 3>in Gaza is meant to immediately stop.

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<v Speaker 4>President Trump, writing on Truth Social I am very proud

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<v Speaker 4>to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off

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<v Speaker 4>on the first phase of our peace plan. This means

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<v Speaker 4>that all of the hostages will be released very soon,

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<v Speaker 4>and then after that.

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<v Speaker 3>According to the text of the deal, Hamas is supposed

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<v Speaker 3>to release all of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>There are twenty who are thought to be alive, and

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<v Speaker 3>then another twenty eight who have died in captivity. They

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<v Speaker 3>are meant to be freed within seventy two hours, and

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<v Speaker 3>it's likely that Hamas will more or less hit that deadline.

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<v Speaker 3>The Israelis are thinking by Saturday the hostages will be out.

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<v Speaker 3>Donald Trump is saying it might not happen until Monday,

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<v Speaker 3>but within a few days they will be released. And

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<v Speaker 3>then in parallel to that, Israel will release one nine

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<v Speaker 3>hundred and fifty Palestinian prisoners from its jails. Once that happens,

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<v Speaker 3>the Israeli army will pull back somewhat from its current

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<v Speaker 3>positions in Gaza. It will continue to occupy about half

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<v Speaker 3>of Gaza's territory, but it will pull back from the

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<v Speaker 3>big cities, and it is meant to allow a flood

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<v Speaker 3>of humanitarian eid to come in Via five border crossings.

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<v Speaker 1>And there have been celebrations in Tel Aviv as the

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<v Speaker 1>families of hostages celebrate the return of their loved ones.

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<v Speaker 1>The return of hostages has always been one of Benjaminett

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<v Speaker 1>now who's stated aims. So how is he talking about

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<v Speaker 1>this moment?

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<v Speaker 3>He is calling it a great day for Israel. Yes,

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<v Speaker 3>this is from Netna whose office. They set this out

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<v Speaker 3>on Twitter.

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<v Speaker 5>They say Prime Minister Benjamin Natnall, who just spoke with

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<v Speaker 5>US President Donald Trump. The two held a very emotional

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<v Speaker 5>and warm conversation, congratulating each other on the historic achievement

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<v Speaker 5>of signing the agreement for the release of all the hostages.

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<v Speaker 3>More broadly, Nathaniell is trying to portray this as a

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<v Speaker 3>victory for him politically. He's trying to craft a narrative

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<v Speaker 3>and he's been doing this for a number of days now.

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<v Speaker 2>I think we can advance piece not only between Israel

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<v Speaker 2>and Gaza, but between Israel and many other partners in

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East and a Muslim countries beyond the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 3>Nathaniel is insisting that this deal is you know, exactly

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<v Speaker 3>what Israel wants. Never mind that Nathaniel for months now

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<v Speaker 3>has been resisting deals quite similar. For this, I think

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<v Speaker 3>he knows now that the chances of early elections are

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<v Speaker 3>rising in Israel, and so he's trying to portray this

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<v Speaker 3>as a political victory for himself.

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<v Speaker 1>And as you mentioned, Israel has agreed to withdraw troops

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<v Speaker 1>to a specific line. So tell me a bit about

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<v Speaker 1>that line and what the frontline I suppose is going

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<v Speaker 1>to look like now.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's the first of three lines spelled out in

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<v Speaker 3>the Trump proposal. This one basically involves just pulling back

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<v Speaker 3>by a kilometer or two in all directions from where

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<v Speaker 3>Israeli troops are currently deployed. But what that means is

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<v Speaker 3>they're going to be further away from the big cities

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<v Speaker 3>we've seen this month's long campaign now to try and

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<v Speaker 3>conquer Gaza City. Israeli troops who have been positioned quite

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<v Speaker 3>close to Gaza City are going to move a bit

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<v Speaker 3>further away. But again, they're still going to control most

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<v Speaker 3>of Gaza's territory. They're not going to relinquish more of

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<v Speaker 3>it until some interterminate point later in this agreement.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you tell me a little more about what Gaza

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<v Speaker 1>looks like now and what's going to change there?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean on the ground, Gaza is in ruins.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, there are assessments by the US and by

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<v Speaker 3>independent researchers looking at satellite imagery that suggests, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>seventy or eighty percent of the buildings have either been

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<v Speaker 3>destroyed or so badly damaged that they're uninhabitable. At this point,

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<v Speaker 3>hundreds of thousands of people have lost their homes. Basic

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<v Speaker 3>infrastructure is in shambles. Much of the agricultural land in

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<v Speaker 3>Gaza has been destroyed by fighting, and Israeli troops are

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<v Speaker 3>going to remain on some of that land for the

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<v Speaker 3>foreseeable future. So the immediate challenge is going to be

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<v Speaker 3>just getting humanitarian aid into Gaza, dealing with the ongoing

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<v Speaker 3>famine in Gaza City, dealing with the quite severe hunger

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<v Speaker 3>in other parts of the territory. And then at some point,

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<v Speaker 3>if all goes well, people will turn to the task

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<v Speaker 3>of reconstruction. But that's a monumental task. The World Bank

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<v Speaker 3>thinks it will cost fifty three billion dollars to rebuild Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>There's an estimate from the UN that it might take

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<v Speaker 3>at least a decade just to clear the rubble that

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<v Speaker 3>has accumulated during two years of war. So the scale

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<v Speaker 3>of what lies ahead in terms of both providing aid

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<v Speaker 3>and eventually trying to rebuild, it's really unimaginable.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up inside the negotiations that led to this moment.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk more about the pressure that has come from

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<v Speaker 1>the US, because this agreement comes just over a weeke

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<v Speaker 1>after Trump released his twenty point pace plan. So what's

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<v Speaker 1>been happening since then to get both sides to agree.

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<v Speaker 3>I think the real shift in terms of the US

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<v Speaker 3>Israeli relationship came after that Israeli airstrike in Kuta a

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<v Speaker 3>month ago, which was a failed attempt to assassinate leaders

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<v Speaker 3>of Hamas who were based in Kutla, including Khalil Haya,

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<v Speaker 3>who was head of the negotiating team in Egypt this week,

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<v Speaker 3>who will sign this agreement on behalf of Hanas tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that Israeli airstrike on a country that is

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<v Speaker 3>a close American ally, a country where America has a

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<v Speaker 3>large military base, also a country that just gifted Donald

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<v Speaker 3>Trump a four hundred million dollar airplane when he visited

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<v Speaker 3>a few months ago. I think that strike convinced Trump

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<v Speaker 3>that he really needed to start trying to restrain ben

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<v Speaker 3>You mean Nataniel, the Israeli Prime Minister, that Israel was

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<v Speaker 3>sort of a force for chaos in the region, if

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<v Speaker 3>you will, then that America needed to rein it in.

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<v Speaker 3>And so I think since then you have seen Trump

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<v Speaker 3>working closely with Arab countries and Muslim countries, who he

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<v Speaker 3>met at the United Nations about two weeks ago to

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<v Speaker 3>draft the initial version of this twenty point plan. He's

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<v Speaker 3>deferred to them a lot on ideas for ending the

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<v Speaker 3>Galsa War, which is a sharp contrast with February when

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<v Speaker 3>Trump stood up at the White House and announced the

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<v Speaker 3>plan to ethnically cleans and turned it into a beach resort.

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<v Speaker 3>He's moved a long way from that, and he's now

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<v Speaker 3>embraced what is seen as a serious, if vague plan

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<v Speaker 3>for not just ending the war, but trying to bring

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<v Speaker 3>about something better in Gauza.

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<v Speaker 1>And so, why has Hamas agreed to this plan at

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<v Speaker 1>this particular moment in time.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it also has to do with pressure, but

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<v Speaker 3>pressure from other countries. I think it's pressure from Egypt,

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<v Speaker 3>from Cutler, from Turkey, the Cutteries. I was there a

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<v Speaker 3>couple of weeks ago, and the sense I got from

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<v Speaker 3>speaking to people there was that the cutteries have really

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<v Speaker 3>pushed Hamas to accept the deal. They have warned the

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<v Speaker 3>leaders of Hamas that if they didn't accept this, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>this is your last chance to reach a ceasefire, and

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<v Speaker 3>if you reject it, you might be expelled from Kutter.

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<v Speaker 3>And it's not clear at that point where they would

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<v Speaker 3>go because there aren't many other countries in the world

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<v Speaker 3>willing to accept them. So they have leaned on Hamas.

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<v Speaker 3>I think the Turkish government, which has long standing ties

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<v Speaker 3>with Hamas, has done the same. You had the Arab

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<v Speaker 3>League a few months ago voting unanimously in favor of

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<v Speaker 3>a resolution that called on Hamas to disarm. It's the

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<v Speaker 3>first time the Arab League has ever done that. So

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<v Speaker 3>we've seen the region really united behind trying to get

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<v Speaker 3>Hamas to make a deal.

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<v Speaker 1>And so what happens if either Hamas or Israel don't

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<v Speaker 1>do what they have said that they will.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, you know, in the short term, I'm not particularly

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<v Speaker 3>concerned about that. I think they will in the days

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<v Speaker 3>and weeks to come do what they said. I think

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<v Speaker 3>the issue is when you look at the longer term.

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<v Speaker 3>The Trump plan has two halves or two phases. There's

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<v Speaker 3>one part of it that is focused on what's going

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<v Speaker 3>to happen in these next few days, the hostage release,

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<v Speaker 3>the partial Israeli withdrawal, et cetera. And then there's a

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<v Speaker 3>longer term part of it that has these much more

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<v Speaker 3>ambitious schemes for a transitional authority to governed Gaza and

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<v Speaker 3>international peace keeping force to provide security there. The negotiators

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<v Speaker 3>in Egypt this week ignored that second half of the plan.

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<v Speaker 3>They focused only on the first half. They reached an

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<v Speaker 3>agreement on the first half, but the details of the

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<v Speaker 3>second half have not been worked out at all, and

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<v Speaker 3>so I think the concern now is if everything goes

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<v Speaker 3>well over the next few days, they are meant to

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<v Speaker 3>start talking about Phase two, But that is going to

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<v Speaker 3>be very difficult and very complicated to reach agreement on

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<v Speaker 3>what happens if they don't, what happens if Hanas does

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<v Speaker 3>not agree to relinquish its weapons, for example, as the

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<v Speaker 3>Trunk Plan calls on it to do. If they don't,

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<v Speaker 3>Israel is not going to withdraw further from Gaza. I

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<v Speaker 3>think it's unlikely that donor countries are going to contribute

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<v Speaker 3>much for reconstruction, so that's going to proceed quite slowly,

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<v Speaker 3>you wind up creating a whole bunch of other problems.

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<v Speaker 1>And as you mentioned, part of the agreement is that

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<v Speaker 1>aid will now enter Gaza. Talk to me a bit

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<v Speaker 1>about the scale of aid that is now needed to

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<v Speaker 1>address the humanitarian situation.

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<v Speaker 3>What's spelled out in the Trump plan is that the

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<v Speaker 3>quantities of aid that have to enter Gaza in the

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<v Speaker 3>ceasefire should be at least equivalent to what was entering

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<v Speaker 3>back in January during the previous ceasefire. At that point

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<v Speaker 3>you had consistently five hundred, six hundred trucks a day

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<v Speaker 3>entering Gaza carrying not only food, but medicine, temporary shelters,

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<v Speaker 3>mechanical equipment to try and repair desalination plants, all kinds

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<v Speaker 3>of things that were needed. And back then the UN

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<v Speaker 3>and other aid agencies said there was enough aid entering Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>There was so much, in fact, that not only were

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<v Speaker 3>people getting enough food, but they were able to stockpile

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<v Speaker 3>aid in warehouses, which is one reason why once Israel

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<v Speaker 3>resumed the war in March and completely shut off the

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<v Speaker 3>flow of aid, famine didn't immediately set in because there

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<v Speaker 3>was aid stockpiled from the period of the ceasefire. So

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<v Speaker 3>that is what's meant to happen again. We're meant to

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<v Speaker 3>go from the you know, one hundred trucks on a

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<v Speaker 3>good day that have been entering recently to something five

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<v Speaker 3>or six times that.

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<v Speaker 1>And this agreement comes almost exactly two years after October seven,

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty three, And in that two years, at least

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<v Speaker 1>sixty seven thousand Palestinians have been killed, at least twenty

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<v Speaker 1>thousand of them have been children. In that time, there

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<v Speaker 1>have been many attempts at negotiations that have ultimately all failed.

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<v Speaker 1>So how different is this time.

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<v Speaker 3>We'll see. You know, everyone is optimistic for now, but

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<v Speaker 3>then everyone was optimistic back in January when the previous

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<v Speaker 3>ceasefire was reached and that only lasted for six weeks.

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<v Speaker 3>The two things that are going to be key here.

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<v Speaker 3>One is Donald Trump needs to keep pressure on Begnamin

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<v Speaker 3>N'atanielle to abide by the ceasefire, not to resume the war.

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<v Speaker 3>It's always a concern with Trump something that requires sustained

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<v Speaker 3>focus and sustained attention, which is not something he's known for.

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<v Speaker 3>He is going to have to maintain pressure on the

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<v Speaker 3>Israeli government and not do what he did back in January,

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<v Speaker 3>where he ended up giving the Israelis a free pass

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<v Speaker 3>to resume the war. And then the second thing that

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<v Speaker 3>will tell us if this is going to be any

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<v Speaker 3>different is if there's any progress on these face two negotiations.

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<v Speaker 3>If Hamas, for example, is willing to be even somewhat

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<v Speaker 3>flexible on the question of relinquishing its arms, that's something

0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:39.160
<v Speaker 3>it has always refused to do before. If it takes

0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:41.680
<v Speaker 3>a different position now, if it's amenable to doing that,

0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:45.680
<v Speaker 3>then there is a possibility of change in Gaza, of

0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:48.920
<v Speaker 3>a new political entity to govern the territory, of a

0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:52.920
<v Speaker 3>different sort of relationship with Israel, of a serious process

0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:55.600
<v Speaker 3>of reconstruction. But we just don't know yet if any

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<v Speaker 3>of these things are going to happen.

0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.000
<v Speaker 1>Well, Greg, thank you so much for speaking with me.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, the New South Wales Court

0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:18.839
<v Speaker 1>of Appeal has issued a prohibition order against a pro

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<v Speaker 1>Palestine protest outside the Sydney Opera House. Organizers argued the

0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:27.280
<v Speaker 1>protest could have proceeded peacefully this Sunday with appropriate crowd control,

0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:29.840
<v Speaker 1>but the court agreed with arguments from New South Wales

0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:33.560
<v Speaker 1>police that the estimated attendance numbers posed a public safety risk.

0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:36.760
<v Speaker 1>The protest will now march from Hyde Park to Town Hall,

0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:39.400
<v Speaker 1>with police stationed at the Opera House fore court to

0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:43.280
<v Speaker 1>ensure protesters don't gather there. And an Australian is among

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<v Speaker 1>three scientists that have been awarded the Nobel Prize in

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:50.040
<v Speaker 1>Chemistry for helping develop metal organic frameworks chemical structures with

0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:53.400
<v Speaker 1>large cavities that enable them to trap and stare other compounds.

0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:56.800
<v Speaker 1>Professor Richard Robson from the University of Melbourne says their

0:14:56.840 --> 0:15:01.840
<v Speaker 1>structures could potentially capture carbon dioxide. Seven Am is a

0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:05.000
<v Speaker 1>daily show from Solstice Media. It's made by Atticus Basto,

0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:09.400
<v Speaker 1>Chris Daniel James, Sarah mcvee, Travis Evans, Sultan Fetcho and

0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:12.360
<v Speaker 1>me Ruby Jones. A theme music is by Ned Beckley

0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:16.120
<v Speaker 1>and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio. Tomorrow, Daniel James will

0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:19.120
<v Speaker 1>bring you a special Saturday edition of seven Am, wrapping

0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:22.280
<v Speaker 1>the week's biggest moments in politics, with contributing editor of

0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:23.800
<v Speaker 1>The New Daily, Amy Ramikus