Speaker 1: Almost two years to the day. Since October seven, Israel
Speaker 1: and Tamas have agreed to the first phase of Donald
Speaker 1: Trump's peace plan for Gaza. The agreement involves the release
Speaker 1: of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, with Israel
Speaker 1: pulling back its troops to an agreed uponline and allowing
Speaker 1: aid into Gaza. The first hostages are expected to be
Speaker 1: released as soon as this weekend. I'm Ruby Jones, and
Speaker 1: you're listening to seven.
Speaker 2: AM today Middle East correspondent for The Economist, Greg Carlstrom
Speaker 2: on the negotiations that got us here and what the
Speaker 2: future of Gaza looks like.
Speaker 1: It's Friday, October ten.
Speaker 3: Evening. We are coming on the air with breaking news.
Speaker 3: President Trump has just announced that Israel and Hamas have
Speaker 3: agreed to the first phase of a peace plan that
Speaker 3: eventually could end the war in Gaza.
Speaker 1: So Greg, let's start with what both sides have just
Speaker 1: agreed to tell me about the deal and when it
Speaker 1: takes effect.
Speaker 3: So the deal is meant to be signed at noon
Speaker 3: in Egypt on Thursday. So once it's signed, the fighting
Speaker 3: in Gaza is meant to immediately stop.
Speaker 4: President Trump, writing on Truth Social I am very proud
Speaker 4: to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off
Speaker 4: on the first phase of our peace plan. This means
Speaker 4: that all of the hostages will be released very soon,
Speaker 4: and then after that.
Speaker 3: According to the text of the deal, Hamas is supposed
Speaker 3: to release all of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza.
Speaker 3: There are twenty who are thought to be alive, and
Speaker 3: then another twenty eight who have died in captivity. They
Speaker 3: are meant to be freed within seventy two hours, and
Speaker 3: it's likely that Hamas will more or less hit that deadline.
Speaker 3: The Israelis are thinking by Saturday the hostages will be out.
Speaker 3: Donald Trump is saying it might not happen until Monday,
Speaker 3: but within a few days they will be released. And
Speaker 3: then in parallel to that, Israel will release one nine
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty Palestinian prisoners from its jails. Once that happens,
Speaker 3: the Israeli army will pull back somewhat from its current
Speaker 3: positions in Gaza. It will continue to occupy about half
Speaker 3: of Gaza's territory, but it will pull back from the
Speaker 3: big cities, and it is meant to allow a flood
Speaker 3: of humanitarian eid to come in Via five border crossings.
Speaker 1: And there have been celebrations in Tel Aviv as the
Speaker 1: families of hostages celebrate the return of their loved ones.
Speaker 1: The return of hostages has always been one of Benjaminett
Speaker 1: now who's stated aims. So how is he talking about
Speaker 1: this moment?
Speaker 3: He is calling it a great day for Israel. Yes,
Speaker 3: this is from Netna whose office. They set this out
Speaker 3: on Twitter.
Speaker 5: They say Prime Minister Benjamin Natnall, who just spoke with
Speaker 5: US President Donald Trump. The two held a very emotional
Speaker 5: and warm conversation, congratulating each other on the historic achievement
Speaker 5: of signing the agreement for the release of all the hostages.
Speaker 3: More broadly, Nathaniell is trying to portray this as a
Speaker 3: victory for him politically. He's trying to craft a narrative
Speaker 3: and he's been doing this for a number of days now.
Speaker 2: I think we can advance piece not only between Israel
Speaker 2: and Gaza, but between Israel and many other partners in
Speaker 2: the Middle East and a Muslim countries beyond the Middle East.
Speaker 3: Nathaniel is insisting that this deal is you know, exactly
Speaker 3: what Israel wants. Never mind that Nathaniel for months now
Speaker 3: has been resisting deals quite similar. For this, I think
Speaker 3: he knows now that the chances of early elections are
Speaker 3: rising in Israel, and so he's trying to portray this
Speaker 3: as a political victory for himself.
Speaker 1: And as you mentioned, Israel has agreed to withdraw troops
Speaker 1: to a specific line. So tell me a bit about
Speaker 1: that line and what the frontline I suppose is going
Speaker 1: to look like now.
Speaker 3: So it's the first of three lines spelled out in
Speaker 3: the Trump proposal. This one basically involves just pulling back
Speaker 3: by a kilometer or two in all directions from where
Speaker 3: Israeli troops are currently deployed. But what that means is
Speaker 3: they're going to be further away from the big cities
Speaker 3: we've seen this month's long campaign now to try and
Speaker 3: conquer Gaza City. Israeli troops who have been positioned quite
Speaker 3: close to Gaza City are going to move a bit
Speaker 3: further away. But again, they're still going to control most
Speaker 3: of Gaza's territory. They're not going to relinquish more of
Speaker 3: it until some interterminate point later in this agreement.
Speaker 1: Can you tell me a little more about what Gaza
Speaker 1: looks like now and what's going to change there?
Speaker 3: Well, I mean on the ground, Gaza is in ruins.
Speaker 3: You know, there are assessments by the US and by
Speaker 3: independent researchers looking at satellite imagery that suggests, you know,
Speaker 3: seventy or eighty percent of the buildings have either been
Speaker 3: destroyed or so badly damaged that they're uninhabitable. At this point,
Speaker 3: hundreds of thousands of people have lost their homes. Basic
Speaker 3: infrastructure is in shambles. Much of the agricultural land in
Speaker 3: Gaza has been destroyed by fighting, and Israeli troops are
Speaker 3: going to remain on some of that land for the
Speaker 3: foreseeable future. So the immediate challenge is going to be
Speaker 3: just getting humanitarian aid into Gaza, dealing with the ongoing
Speaker 3: famine in Gaza City, dealing with the quite severe hunger
Speaker 3: in other parts of the territory. And then at some point,
Speaker 3: if all goes well, people will turn to the task
Speaker 3: of reconstruction. But that's a monumental task. The World Bank
Speaker 3: thinks it will cost fifty three billion dollars to rebuild Gaza.
Speaker 3: There's an estimate from the UN that it might take
Speaker 3: at least a decade just to clear the rubble that
Speaker 3: has accumulated during two years of war. So the scale
Speaker 3: of what lies ahead in terms of both providing aid
Speaker 3: and eventually trying to rebuild, it's really unimaginable.
Speaker 1: Coming up inside the negotiations that led to this moment.
Speaker 1: Let's talk more about the pressure that has come from
Speaker 1: the US, because this agreement comes just over a weeke
Speaker 1: after Trump released his twenty point pace plan. So what's
Speaker 1: been happening since then to get both sides to agree.
Speaker 3: I think the real shift in terms of the US
Speaker 3: Israeli relationship came after that Israeli airstrike in Kuta a
Speaker 3: month ago, which was a failed attempt to assassinate leaders
Speaker 3: of Hamas who were based in Kutla, including Khalil Haya,
Speaker 3: who was head of the negotiating team in Egypt this week,
Speaker 3: who will sign this agreement on behalf of Hanas tomorrow.
Speaker 3: I think that Israeli airstrike on a country that is
Speaker 3: a close American ally, a country where America has a
Speaker 3: large military base, also a country that just gifted Donald
Speaker 3: Trump a four hundred million dollar airplane when he visited
Speaker 3: a few months ago. I think that strike convinced Trump
Speaker 3: that he really needed to start trying to restrain ben
Speaker 3: You mean Nataniel, the Israeli Prime Minister, that Israel was
Speaker 3: sort of a force for chaos in the region, if
Speaker 3: you will, then that America needed to rein it in.
Speaker 3: And so I think since then you have seen Trump
Speaker 3: working closely with Arab countries and Muslim countries, who he
Speaker 3: met at the United Nations about two weeks ago to
Speaker 3: draft the initial version of this twenty point plan. He's
Speaker 3: deferred to them a lot on ideas for ending the
Speaker 3: Galsa War, which is a sharp contrast with February when
Speaker 3: Trump stood up at the White House and announced the
Speaker 3: plan to ethnically cleans and turned it into a beach resort.
Speaker 3: He's moved a long way from that, and he's now
Speaker 3: embraced what is seen as a serious, if vague plan
Speaker 3: for not just ending the war, but trying to bring
Speaker 3: about something better in Gauza.
Speaker 1: And so, why has Hamas agreed to this plan at
Speaker 1: this particular moment in time.
Speaker 3: I think it also has to do with pressure, but
Speaker 3: pressure from other countries. I think it's pressure from Egypt,
Speaker 3: from Cutler, from Turkey, the Cutteries. I was there a
Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago, and the sense I got from
Speaker 3: speaking to people there was that the cutteries have really
Speaker 3: pushed Hamas to accept the deal. They have warned the
Speaker 3: leaders of Hamas that if they didn't accept this, you know,
Speaker 3: this is your last chance to reach a ceasefire, and
Speaker 3: if you reject it, you might be expelled from Kutter.
Speaker 3: And it's not clear at that point where they would
Speaker 3: go because there aren't many other countries in the world
Speaker 3: willing to accept them. So they have leaned on Hamas.
Speaker 3: I think the Turkish government, which has long standing ties
Speaker 3: with Hamas, has done the same. You had the Arab
Speaker 3: League a few months ago voting unanimously in favor of
Speaker 3: a resolution that called on Hamas to disarm. It's the
Speaker 3: first time the Arab League has ever done that. So
Speaker 3: we've seen the region really united behind trying to get
Speaker 3: Hamas to make a deal.
Speaker 1: And so what happens if either Hamas or Israel don't
Speaker 1: do what they have said that they will.
Speaker 3: Well, you know, in the short term, I'm not particularly
Speaker 3: concerned about that. I think they will in the days
Speaker 3: and weeks to come do what they said. I think
Speaker 3: the issue is when you look at the longer term.
Speaker 3: The Trump plan has two halves or two phases. There's
Speaker 3: one part of it that is focused on what's going
Speaker 3: to happen in these next few days, the hostage release,
Speaker 3: the partial Israeli withdrawal, et cetera. And then there's a
Speaker 3: longer term part of it that has these much more
Speaker 3: ambitious schemes for a transitional authority to governed Gaza and
Speaker 3: international peace keeping force to provide security there. The negotiators
Speaker 3: in Egypt this week ignored that second half of the plan.
Speaker 3: They focused only on the first half. They reached an
Speaker 3: agreement on the first half, but the details of the
Speaker 3: second half have not been worked out at all, and
Speaker 3: so I think the concern now is if everything goes
Speaker 3: well over the next few days, they are meant to
Speaker 3: start talking about Phase two, But that is going to
Speaker 3: be very difficult and very complicated to reach agreement on
Speaker 3: what happens if they don't, what happens if Hanas does
Speaker 3: not agree to relinquish its weapons, for example, as the
Speaker 3: Trunk Plan calls on it to do. If they don't,
Speaker 3: Israel is not going to withdraw further from Gaza. I
Speaker 3: think it's unlikely that donor countries are going to contribute
Speaker 3: much for reconstruction, so that's going to proceed quite slowly,
Speaker 3: you wind up creating a whole bunch of other problems.
Speaker 1: And as you mentioned, part of the agreement is that
Speaker 1: aid will now enter Gaza. Talk to me a bit
Speaker 1: about the scale of aid that is now needed to
Speaker 1: address the humanitarian situation.
Speaker 3: What's spelled out in the Trump plan is that the
Speaker 3: quantities of aid that have to enter Gaza in the
Speaker 3: ceasefire should be at least equivalent to what was entering
Speaker 3: back in January during the previous ceasefire. At that point
Speaker 3: you had consistently five hundred, six hundred trucks a day
Speaker 3: entering Gaza carrying not only food, but medicine, temporary shelters,
Speaker 3: mechanical equipment to try and repair desalination plants, all kinds
Speaker 3: of things that were needed. And back then the UN
Speaker 3: and other aid agencies said there was enough aid entering Gaza.
Speaker 3: There was so much, in fact, that not only were
Speaker 3: people getting enough food, but they were able to stockpile
Speaker 3: aid in warehouses, which is one reason why once Israel
Speaker 3: resumed the war in March and completely shut off the
Speaker 3: flow of aid, famine didn't immediately set in because there
Speaker 3: was aid stockpiled from the period of the ceasefire. So
Speaker 3: that is what's meant to happen again. We're meant to
Speaker 3: go from the you know, one hundred trucks on a
Speaker 3: good day that have been entering recently to something five
Speaker 3: or six times that.
Speaker 1: And this agreement comes almost exactly two years after October seven,
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, And in that two years, at least
Speaker 1: sixty seven thousand Palestinians have been killed, at least twenty
Speaker 1: thousand of them have been children. In that time, there
Speaker 1: have been many attempts at negotiations that have ultimately all failed.
Speaker 1: So how different is this time.
Speaker 3: We'll see. You know, everyone is optimistic for now, but
Speaker 3: then everyone was optimistic back in January when the previous
Speaker 3: ceasefire was reached and that only lasted for six weeks.
Speaker 3: The two things that are going to be key here.
Speaker 3: One is Donald Trump needs to keep pressure on Begnamin
Speaker 3: N'atanielle to abide by the ceasefire, not to resume the war.
Speaker 3: It's always a concern with Trump something that requires sustained
Speaker 3: focus and sustained attention, which is not something he's known for.
Speaker 3: He is going to have to maintain pressure on the
Speaker 3: Israeli government and not do what he did back in January,
Speaker 3: where he ended up giving the Israelis a free pass
Speaker 3: to resume the war. And then the second thing that
Speaker 3: will tell us if this is going to be any
Speaker 3: different is if there's any progress on these face two negotiations.
Speaker 3: If Hamas, for example, is willing to be even somewhat
Speaker 3: flexible on the question of relinquishing its arms, that's something
Speaker 3: it has always refused to do before. If it takes
Speaker 3: a different position now, if it's amenable to doing that,
Speaker 3: then there is a possibility of change in Gaza, of
Speaker 3: a new political entity to govern the territory, of a
Speaker 3: different sort of relationship with Israel, of a serious process
Speaker 3: of reconstruction. But we just don't know yet if any
Speaker 3: of these things are going to happen.
Speaker 1: Well, Greg, thank you so much for speaking with me.
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: Also in the news today, the New South Wales Court
Speaker 1: of Appeal has issued a prohibition order against a pro
Speaker 1: Palestine protest outside the Sydney Opera House. Organizers argued the
Speaker 1: protest could have proceeded peacefully this Sunday with appropriate crowd control,
Speaker 1: but the court agreed with arguments from New South Wales
Speaker 1: police that the estimated attendance numbers posed a public safety risk.
Speaker 1: The protest will now march from Hyde Park to Town Hall,
Speaker 1: with police stationed at the Opera House fore court to
Speaker 1: ensure protesters don't gather there. And an Australian is among
Speaker 1: three scientists that have been awarded the Nobel Prize in
Speaker 1: Chemistry for helping develop metal organic frameworks chemical structures with
Speaker 1: large cavities that enable them to trap and stare other compounds.
Speaker 1: Professor Richard Robson from the University of Melbourne says their
Speaker 1: structures could potentially capture carbon dioxide. Seven Am is a
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Speaker 1: Chris Daniel James, Sarah mcvee, Travis Evans, Sultan Fetcho and
Speaker 1: me Ruby Jones. A theme music is by Ned Beckley
Speaker 1: and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio. Tomorrow, Daniel James will
Speaker 1: bring you a special Saturday edition of seven Am, wrapping
Speaker 1: the week's biggest moments in politics, with contributing editor of
Speaker 1: The New Daily, Amy Ramikus