1 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: Annual inflation rises, pushing out the timeline for interest rate cuts. 2 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: Anglo American ends talks with BHP over at seventy five 3 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 1: billion dollar bit and expect the cost of your OJ 4 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 1: in the morning to jump with orange juice prices doubling 5 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: in a year. Welcome to fear and greed. Daily business 6 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: news for people who make their own decisions. It is Thursday, 7 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: the thirtieth of May twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson 8 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean Aylmer. 9 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael. 10 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: Sean. We'll get to our interview in a moment, because 11 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 1: it's all about the main story today. Inflation is no 12 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: longer falling, suggesting that any cut in interest rates is 13 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 1: a long way off. 14 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 2: Annual inflation for the twelve months to the end of 15 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 2: April stepped up to three point six percent from three 16 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:51,279 Speaker 2: and a half percent the previous month. According to this 17 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 2: trade impure of statistics, housing costs and fruit and vegetable 18 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 2: prices rose the latter due to bad weather. Also, the 19 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 2: figure includes the annual increase in health insurance premiums. Other 20 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 2: items to jump sharply include postal services, tobacco and sports 21 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 2: participation in services. Perhaps most concerning is that the trimmed 22 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 2: mean measure, which takes out some of the more volatile 23 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,839 Speaker 2: items like fruit and veggies, ticked up to four point 24 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 2: one percent. While the reading yesterday is monthly and not 25 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:24,040 Speaker 2: anywhere near as comprehensive as a quarterly figure, the trend 26 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 2: is not the Reserve Bank's freend. In this case, inflation 27 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 2: at best is flatlining. Monthly figures are always taken with 28 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:34,959 Speaker 2: a degree of caution. However, they do suggest that headline 29 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 2: inflation is entrenched around three and a half percent underlying 30 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,479 Speaker 2: inflation around four percent, both well above the central banks 31 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 2: target range of two to three percent. The Central Bank 32 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 2: has previously said it doesn't expect to see inflation back 33 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 2: in its target range until later next year, but there 34 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 2: is no way they'll be happy with the flat lining 35 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 2: that's going on now. 36 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: It always amazes me how specific some of the data 37 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: is that goes into this in terms of I understand 38 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 1: obviously about kind of the increase in health insurance premiums. 39 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 1: That's kind of a big ticket kind of thing, but 40 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: then to get as kind of specific as sports participation 41 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 1: and postal services and things, to actually see notice the 42 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,919 Speaker 1: price rises in there, and to kind of feed all 43 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 1: of that in to this overall number. 44 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's pretty incredible, great detail. 45 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 1: What does all that detail mean though, I mean really 46 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: back to self interest? Hreh on what does it mean 47 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 1: for interest rates? 48 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 2: Those wanting a rate cut this year are probably disappointed 49 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 2: This morning. The Reserve Bank minutes of its last board 50 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 2: meeting show that the Central Bank discussed lifting rates, and 51 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 2: yesterday's number would have added some vigor to that discussion 52 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 2: if it had come out ahead of that meeting, as 53 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 2: I mentioned. Yes, So the X factor in all this 54 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 2: is the Stage three tax cuts. People will have more 55 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 2: take home pay in a month's time, and it's unclear 56 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 2: what they're going to do with it. If they rush 57 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 2: out and spend it all rather than paying down debt 58 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 2: or saving, it will definitely be inflationary and that will 59 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 2: keep interest rates higher for longer. In any case, with inflation, 60 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:08,839 Speaker 2: or at least the monthly inflation reading coming into three 61 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 2: point six percent, there is no way the Reserve Bank 62 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 2: will cut rates for some time. In fact, most economists 63 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 2: are now thinking about early next year as when the 64 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 2: Reserve Bank will next move on rates, and most of them, 65 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 2: not all of them, most of them are saying it 66 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 2: will be down. 67 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:27,679 Speaker 1: You know who has a good take on this one, Sean. 68 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 2: Well, Hirelle Murphy, I would say from me why. 69 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 1: You are exactly right? Coincidentally, Charrell Murphy, Chief Economists at 70 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 1: E why is your guest today for the Fear and 71 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: Great Daily Interview? Stick around after the show because you 72 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: get stuck into this whole big question of what's going 73 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: to happen to interest rates? 74 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, sure, do definitely check out the interview. Charelle a 75 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 2: former Reserve banker herself very tapped into what's going to happen, 76 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 2: so it's well worth listen. 77 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly is. It's coming up after the show, 78 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 1: so stick around for that one. Local markets, Sean, how 79 00:03:58,600 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 1: do they perform? Yesterday? 80 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 2: Fflation figures did little for the market, with the S 81 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 2: and PAX two hundred closing down one point three percent 82 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 2: to seven six hundred and sixty six points, its the 83 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 2: lowest close in three weeks. The inflation figures didn't help, 84 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 2: but actually the market was much lower ahead of the 85 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 2: eleven thirty am announcement that was pretty much on the 86 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 2: back of a new talk of interest rates staying higher 87 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 2: for longer in the US. Wasn't much like on the 88 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 2: ax yesterday, Michael all eleven sub industries fell. Around three 89 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 2: quarters of all stocks ended lower, and those sub indices 90 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:33,040 Speaker 2: fell by quite a bit. Consumer Staples was down more 91 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 2: than two percent. The best of the sub indices was tech, 92 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:39,039 Speaker 2: it was down half a percent. Among the large caps, 93 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 2: four toes qu Metals fell more than three and a 94 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 2: half percent. Rio Tinto dropped about one and a half 95 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 2: percent after the price of iron ore came off. All 96 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:48,039 Speaker 2: the banks were lower, with Westpac and A and Z 97 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 2: off more than two percent. Telstra was down one point 98 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 2: seven percent, and Aristocrat Leisure dropped nearly three percent. A 99 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,280 Speaker 2: bit of corporate news around Michael News Corp unveiled a 100 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 2: major restructure, leaving the group with three publishing units and 101 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 2: a sales unit to find sixty five million dollars in 102 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,919 Speaker 2: savings this and next financial years. Healthcare company Fisher and 103 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 2: Papal expects net profit after tax in fiscal twenty twenty 104 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 2: five to bounce back after a disappointing twenty twenty four 105 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:15,359 Speaker 2: due to three abnormal items. Its share price was up 106 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 2: more than four percent yesterday, the best of the top 107 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 2: two hundred. The worst was New in Pharmaceuticals. It tumbled 108 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 2: nine percent. Now, remember a week ago it came out 109 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 2: said good phase two trials for its Pitt Hopkins drug. Well, 110 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 2: all those gains from last week have now been retraced. 111 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 1: Okay, so a big day locally. What about international markets? 112 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 2: The International Monetary Fund came out and said it expects 113 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 2: China's economy to grow five percent this year. I think 114 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 2: its forecast from four point six percent. That reflects a 115 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 2: solid start to twenty twenty four and more promised support 116 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 2: from Beijing. Now, China's targeting growth of around five percent. 117 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 2: In the March court of the pace of growth was 118 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 2: running at about a five point three percent level. That 119 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 2: should really be good news for the global economy, and 120 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:58,680 Speaker 2: particularly for Australia since I by so much of the 121 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 2: stuff we dig out of the ground. I've got to 122 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 2: say most investors right now are focused on US inflation 123 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 2: figures you out in the next forty eight hours. Ahead 124 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 2: of that data, the mood turned a bit sour on 125 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 2: Wall Street. That means that people think that rates in 126 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 2: the US may stay higher for longer. I mean, it's 127 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 2: a guessing game changes every week really Anyway, Investors push 128 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,119 Speaker 2: the US dollar higher as a result, and the Aussie 129 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,599 Speaker 2: dollar lower on the belief that those rates will stay higher. 130 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 2: In the United States, gold prices also rose. Oil prices 131 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 2: jumped on the back of a flare up intensions in 132 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 2: the Middle East. There was a vessel attack in the 133 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 2: Red Sea. Of course, we've also had Israeli tanks reaching 134 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 2: the center of Raffa. 135 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 1: All right, we'll be back in a moment with the 136 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: rest of the day's business news. Sean BHP and Anglo 137 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 1: American have failed to reach agreement over the terms of 138 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 1: a seventy five billion dollar takeover offer, with the structure 139 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: of the deal really the sticking point here. BHP asked 140 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 1: for more time, but Anglo rejected the request, meaning no 141 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 1: deal for at least six months. That's right, Michael. Last week, 142 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 1: Anglo American rejected BHP's third offer, but granted the Big 143 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 1: Australian another seven days to negotiate after being pressured by 144 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 1: some of its largest shareholders. That deadline was two am 145 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: this morning, and under the UK's put up or shut 146 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 1: up laws, BHP had to announce a firm intention to 147 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 1: make an offer or announce that it didn't intend to 148 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: make an offer. Hours before the deadline, BHP had requested 149 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: another week extension. A couple of hours later, Anglo Americans 150 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: said no. It said BHP hadn't addressed fundamental concerns over 151 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: the previous week, so it wasn't going to extend that deadline. 152 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 1: BHP effectively had six hours to make a bid that 153 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 1: didn't happen. The sticking point was BHP's insistence that Anglo 154 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 1: sell two of its South African assets before the deal 155 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 1: went ahead. The prize in all of this for BHP 156 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 1: was supposed to be copper. A successful bid would have 157 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: made BHP the biggest copper producer in the world. Now 158 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: BHP must wait six months before bidding again, and that 159 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: leaves the door open for another bidder, maybe someone like 160 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: Rio Tinto. 161 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 2: They could well emerge. Very interesting corporate maneuvering. Over the 162 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 2: past twenty four hours or so. 163 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: Michael, there has been so much theater and so much 164 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: drama with all of this, and now Sean, you are 165 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 1: dangling this in front of us, the fact that there 166 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: could be another suitor here, say Rio Tinto just sneakily 167 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: coming out going BHP, You're frozen out for six months. 168 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: Now it's our turn. 169 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 2: Well, what this has, this process has done is showed 170 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:35,079 Speaker 2: the price that Anglo American shareholders are prepared to pay 171 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 2: because the price was okay. And the sticking point is 172 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 2: the structure. So these assets in South Africa, so a 173 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 2: new bidder knows exactly what they have to pay and 174 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 2: what they have to do to get Anglo American. So 175 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 2: there is the potential here that BHP has done the 176 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 2: work for another third party to come over the top. 177 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 1: That is amazing. Do you remember that TV show deal 178 00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 1: or no deal? Ah? 179 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,679 Speaker 2: Here we go, yes, no, this is big, possibly the 180 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 2: biggest deal every in the ASEX And we're on the 181 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 2: deal and they deal. Yes, I do remember it. 182 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 1: Oh, tremendous theater. And it feels like this is what 183 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: we're in right now, except instead of kind of one 184 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,559 Speaker 1: thousand dollars in the briefcase or kind of a dollar 185 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 1: in the briefcase, we're dealing with seventy five billion dollars 186 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 1: in the potential to be the biggest copper producer in 187 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: the world. The stakes are slightly higher. 188 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, slightly higher. 189 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: This is an amazing story. Anyway, We'll see how this 190 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: plays out. Sean Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers is decidedly cool 191 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: on Industry Minister Ed Husick's calls for a lower corporate 192 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 1: tax rate, saying the government is already doing enough to 193 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 1: encourage investment. 194 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 2: Now, mister hughsat called for a lower corporate tax rate, 195 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 2: either by cutting it or through using other incentives such 196 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 2: as an investment allowance. It's a significant shift in policy 197 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 2: if it is one, because in opposition, labor generally fought 198 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,559 Speaker 2: against lower taxes for companies. Yesterday, when asked about the comments, 199 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 2: Doctor Chalmers said production tax credits for critical minerals, refining 200 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 2: and hydrogen production introducing the May budget are an example 201 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 2: of the governm using the tax system to encourage investment. 202 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 2: And that's it, he said, no more, clearly not interested 203 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 2: in lowing the corporate tax train. 204 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 1: Can you imagine the phone call sort of been happening 205 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 1: behind the scenes, Ed. 206 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 2: Ed, Ed, what have you said? Ah, Ed, I thought 207 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 2: we talked about this. 208 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: Pull your head in, Ed, Yeah, that kind of thing. 209 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: Head in, Ed go on, Sean, moving on but still 210 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 1: staying in politics. 211 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 2: Really. 212 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Abenezi says the government will reissue a 213 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 1: revised order to replace Direction ninety nine to ensure that 214 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: the protection of the community outweighs any other consideration. 215 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:38,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, so it comes after the order allowed non citizen 216 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 2: criminals to remain in the country. Direction ninety nine says 217 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 2: significant weight must be given to a person's ties to Australia, 218 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 2: so in New Zealander, for example, who's lived most of 219 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,960 Speaker 2: their life in Australia might be allowed to stay even 220 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 2: if they're a criminal. The government has come under fire 221 00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 2: for that, particularly Immigration Minister Andrew Vigiles, someone who the 222 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 2: Prime Minister Anthony Obe easy Start supported yesterday. The government's 223 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 2: also abolished the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, which has been following 224 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 2: Direction ninety nine when releasing criminals into the community. So 225 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,079 Speaker 2: the tribunal has done the right thing, but that's now 226 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 2: been abolished. The Direction ninety nine has been rewaited, so 227 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:23,679 Speaker 2: it's not about the person's ties to Australia. The community 228 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,559 Speaker 2: protection outweighs all other considerations. 229 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:30,439 Speaker 1: And also in politics, slightly more positive one this one Sewan. 230 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 1: The Governor General designate Sam Mostyon was due to meet 231 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 1: King Charles overnight and. 232 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,959 Speaker 2: As Moston becomes the Monarch's representative of one July and 233 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 2: head of that was expected in Buckingham Palace. I have 234 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:43,679 Speaker 2: a night. Apparently outgoing Governor General David Hurley will have 235 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 2: one last meeting with the King in July. I never 236 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,320 Speaker 2: wanted to. I mean, I didn't really think about meeting 237 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 2: Queen Elizabeth the second. I'm sure it would have been 238 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:53,199 Speaker 2: a wonderful experience. I would love to meet King Charles 239 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 2: the third. 240 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:55,559 Speaker 1: Would you really? 241 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 2: Yeah? He's like our wacky king, and I just think 242 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:02,200 Speaker 2: that's fantastic if I I want a king that is 243 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:04,079 Speaker 2: not vanilla, and he is not vanilla. 244 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: You know what it feels like if you were meeting 245 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:10,440 Speaker 1: the late Queen you could kind of say all kinds 246 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,319 Speaker 1: of things and she just wouldn't give you anything. She'd 247 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 1: just be like, oh, yes, that's nice, that kind of thing. 248 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: If you were to say something to King Charles, he'll 249 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 1: tell you exactly what he thinks. 250 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 2: So I've told you the story of Sean Turnell, who 251 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 2: a friend of mine, who was in Mienmar and in 252 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 2: jail there for five hundred days or something or other, 253 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:29,200 Speaker 2: and he was let out last year. He went and 254 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 2: met King Charles asked to meet him, so he flew 255 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 2: over to Buckingham Palace and he said it was a 256 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 2: really nice fella. He said, he just very very candid 257 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 2: in what he said. 258 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: That is great. I can see why you might want 259 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: to meet him, because that would actually be again plenty 260 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 1: of theater. 261 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 2: Sure. Yes, Now I'd like to say Seorandon actually told 262 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,319 Speaker 2: me too much what he actually said, because there's a 263 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 2: certain protocol around that, of course, but just enough. 264 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 1: To know that you want to try and get a 265 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:55,719 Speaker 1: meeting if you can. 266 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 2: I'm hoping fingers crossed all right now. 267 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 1: Lend Lease has struck a deer to sell its US 268 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 1: construction business. Three days after unveiling a four point five 269 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 1: billion dollar plan to pull back from its offshore operations 270 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: to focus on Australia instead. 271 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 2: It has agreed terms with a major US construction firm, 272 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 2: Consigli Construction, for the sale of its US East Coast 273 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:19,720 Speaker 2: construction operations. Under the terms of the deal, Consigli will 274 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 2: acquire around forty five current under contract and pre construction projects. 275 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 2: As part of the sale. The majority of len Lease's 276 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 2: US construction workforce will transition to that company, Consigli. Then 277 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 2: Lease isn't disclosing the value of the deal, but it 278 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 2: has previously said it expects to write down one and 279 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 2: a half billion dollars across all its operations internationally as 280 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 2: it divests that business. Lenless's share price closed down two 281 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 2: point four percent yesterday. 282 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 1: Finally, Sean, before we get to international news, how about 283 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 1: this one insurance group IAG allegedly hit loyal customers with 284 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 1: higher prices via a pricing algorithm, according to claims that 285 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: have been filed by class action legal firm Slater and Gordon. 286 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,840 Speaker 2: Slater and Gordon have claimed IAG engaged in unfair tactics 287 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 2: and misleading conduct in selling home insurance policies. Now IAG 288 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 2: totally refutes the allegations, so they haven't been tested. The 289 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 2: lawsuit alleges that IAG's algorithm modeling estimated the likelihood of 290 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 2: existing customers renewing and the price at which they would 291 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 2: probably accept an offer. According to the financial review, it 292 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 2: incorporated how long customers had held policies and how many 293 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 2: policies they had. According to the lawsuit, some customers were 294 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 2: then hit with a loyalty uplift in pricing that was 295 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 2: greater than any subsequent loyalty discount. The claim mimics earlier 296 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 2: action from the Australians Securities and Investments Commission against IAG 297 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:46,160 Speaker 2: on exactly the same issue. IG is also battling a 298 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 2: shareholder class action about disclosure of COVID nineteen related problems 299 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 2: with business insurance. It's got a fair bit going on 300 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 2: that company. 301 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 1: It certainly does. Toyota has unveiled plans for a new 302 00:14:56,720 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: generation of internal combustion engines, betting on a continued need 303 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 1: for older technologies even as car buyers shift towards electric 304 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 1: vehicle makers. 305 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 2: In a very rare joint appearance, the heads of Toyota, Mazda, 306 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 2: and Subaru pledged to continue investing in fuel based technology, 307 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 2: a move that would also benefit hundreds of suppliers struggling 308 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 2: with the shift to electric vehicles. According to The Financial Times, 309 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 2: Toyata's chief executive Coagy Sato said that engines are designed 310 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:29,480 Speaker 2: to be used alongside batteries in hybrid vehicles. Tiata's commitment 311 00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 2: to internal combustion engine technology comes as sales of fully 312 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 2: electric vehicles have slowed due to concerns about costs and 313 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 2: insufficient charging networks. That's led to a boom in demand 314 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 2: for hybrids, of which, particularly in Australia here Toyota is 315 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 2: the market leader. Toyota said earlier in the week its 316 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 2: new engines should go into production around the time that 317 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 2: updated EU emission regulations is due to be phased in 318 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 2: from the end of twenty twenty six, so that's the 319 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 2: other overrowing lots of regulation change in Europe and to 320 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 2: some extent in North America, so these engines need to 321 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 2: fit into that regulatory change. But once again it's a 322 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 2: sign that the car makers reckoned. The future is hybrid 323 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 2: more so than electric. 324 00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: This is very much aligned with what we were talking 325 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: to Trent Nikolic from Drive dot com dot Au a 326 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago. Great interview. Definitely worth going back 327 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: and having a listen to that one because at the 328 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 1: time that you spoke to him, he was doing a 329 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 1: lap of the map who was heading around Australia in 330 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 1: an ev just basically to almost prove the point that 331 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: really we are not equipped for this and maybe the 332 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 1: future is in fact hybrid's at least for now. 333 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 2: I'm sold. 334 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, it was a really good interview. I might put 335 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 1: a link in today's show notes as well. Sean. Last 336 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 1: week we talked about fears of an outbreak of bird 337 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 1: flu after one case in a human and one in 338 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: a chicken was discovered in Australia. Now in Iowa in 339 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: the US, the deadly bird flu was detected in an 340 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: egg laying chicken flock, affecting four point two million birds. 341 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the biggest outbreak since twenty twenty two. Iowa 342 00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 2: is the largest egg producer in the US, nearly twelve 343 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 2: per cent of the cut trees egg laying hens there, 344 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:06,159 Speaker 2: according to the US Department of Agriculture. In the last 345 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 2: large scale outbreak, which was March twenty twenty two, it 346 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 2: affected five million birds directly, but it actually resulted in 347 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 2: the slaughter of tens of millions of birds and also 348 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 2: a surge in the price of eggs. That's a worry. 349 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 2: The virus is now mirthed to dairy cattle, according to Bloomberg. 350 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 2: That's prompted dairy farmers in the US to seek compensation 351 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 2: for milk losses. So far, Australia is the only continent 352 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 2: that hasn't really been affected by an outbreak of bird flu, 353 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 2: even though we've had spreadic cases. We need to keep 354 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 2: it that way. 355 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 1: Finally, Sean I mentioned this one at the top of 356 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: the show. There is a crisis in the world of oranges, 357 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 1: with juice prices hitting record highs driven by bad weather 358 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: and disease in Brazil, which is the world's largest ex water. 359 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 2: It is so bad, Michael. The manufacturers are looking at 360 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:59,919 Speaker 2: using mandarins to make orange juice. Do you remember that? 361 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,360 Speaker 2: Do you remember the Great Crisis? I think it was McDonald's, 362 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:04,639 Speaker 2: but it could have been KFC. 363 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 1: It was KFC. I know where you're going with this. 364 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 2: And they decided because the iceberg letters price had gone 365 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 2: through the roof because of the floods up north in Queensland, 366 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 2: and they decided to use cabbage instead. 367 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 1: That's right, Yeah, I think letters hit ten dollars each 368 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,360 Speaker 1: and KFC and others just said, no, I can't do this, 369 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 1: We'll replace it with cabbage and no one will notice. 370 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:30,120 Speaker 1: Do you reckon? Do you reckon, Sean? Anyone will notice 371 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 1: if you swap out oranges formandarins. 372 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 2: Nah, Nah, I don't. I actually don't like orange juice. 373 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:39,680 Speaker 2: Oh my god. 374 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:42,160 Speaker 1: Every day I find out about a new well thing 375 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 1: that you don't like. 376 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,119 Speaker 2: To be honest, Jackie was listening to the show yesterday morning. 377 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 2: She rang me on our way to work and said, 378 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 2: you said you don't like chocolate. That's a lie. You're fibbing. 379 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, dark chocolate. You were busted. I was busted. 380 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 1: Someone, so orange juice if they wp it for mandarin 381 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 1: becomes mandarin juice, you're not going to care. 382 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 2: I couldn't give two hoods. 383 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 1: Well, I'll tell you what. It will not fly in 384 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:08,680 Speaker 1: our household. 385 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 2: Well, orange juice futures, basically there allow industry players to 386 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 2: ensure against swings in prices. Futures the cost of that 387 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,680 Speaker 2: insurance effectively have been rising since the end of twenty 388 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 2: twenty two. There's a hurricane and a coal snap devastated 389 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 2: acres of orange grows in Florida, which is the main 390 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 2: growing region in the US. The US is the second 391 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 2: biggest produce of orange juice. The rally has accelerated this 392 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 2: month as the prospect of a dismal harvest in Brazil 393 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 2: has panicked the market. According to the FT and Brazil 394 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 2: exports about eighty percent of the orange juice market. That's 395 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 2: different to the orange market, so we just have to 396 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 2: make that distinction eighty percent of the aj market. There 397 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,359 Speaker 2: you go. Orange futures are currently twice the price of 398 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 2: a year ago. See. 399 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:54,720 Speaker 1: I find this very interesting, and I feel like I 400 00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:57,120 Speaker 1: can't buy it a lot. But it also feels as 401 00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 1: though your heart's not in it because you've declared that 402 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,399 Speaker 1: you hate orange, so now you're just kind of. 403 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 2: Yeah, but I but I by the you know, I 404 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 2: do the groceries. Oh that's right. We have eight people 405 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:06,160 Speaker 2: in this house. 406 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 1: Gollye Okay, all right, maybe it will affect you. Okay, 407 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 1: all that's forgiven, Sean. Up next is the Fear and 408 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 1: Greed Daily Interview. You were speaking today with Charelle Murphy, 409 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 1: chief economist at e Y. 410 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 2: I sure am all about yesterday's inflation figures and what 411 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 2: it means for interest rates. News ain't good, guys. 412 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 1: It's a very interesting interview. Charrell is a great communicator. 413 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: Up next in the Fear and Greed playlist on your 414 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au, which 415 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:33,879 Speaker 1: Sean is also where you can sign up for the 416 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: Fear and Greed weekly newsletter, which went down very very 417 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: well yesterday when it came out, and full of your 418 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 1: opinions and some really quite spicy takes on a few 419 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 1: different topics. 420 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 2: I must say I've changed my mind on the Reserve Bank. 421 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 2: I've always been a great supporter of the Reserve Bank. 422 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 2: I worked there, and I think they've done an amazing 423 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 2: job over a long time. I just starting to shift 424 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 2: a bit on that one. 425 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, you really got stuck in. It was great. So 426 00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,879 Speaker 1: make sure you sign up now for next week. And 427 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:04,280 Speaker 1: so when Sean kind of rips into another institution, you 428 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: hear it first. Thank you very much, Sean. 429 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 2: Thank you. Michael. 430 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,199 Speaker 1: It's Thursday, the thirtieth of May twenty twenty four. Make 431 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,399 Speaker 1: sure you following the podcast and please join us online 432 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson. 433 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 1: And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.