WEBVTT - Labor’s property shake-up is going exactly to plan

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Christian,

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<v Speaker 1>ami it It's Tuesday, August four, twenty twenty six. Just

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<v Speaker 1>fifty five people have been employed through a thirty two

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<v Speaker 1>million dollar government program designed to help employers diversify their workforce.

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<v Speaker 1>That's despired a pledge by the government to get fifteen

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<v Speaker 1>hundred people into work over three years. The Royal Commission

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<v Speaker 1>into Antisemitism and Social Cohesion will hear evidence about a

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<v Speaker 1>violent protest at the Sydney Opera House on October ninth,

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty three, in a new block of public hearings

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<v Speaker 1>starting today. Israeli flags were burned and anti Semitics lures

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<v Speaker 1>were hurled at the demonstration, which came just two days

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<v Speaker 1>after Hummas militants slaughtered twelve hundred Jews in southern Israel

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<v Speaker 1>and took two hundred and fifty women, children and elderly

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<v Speaker 1>people hostage. Ghost stories alive right now at Australian dot

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<v Speaker 1>com dot au. The Albanezy government wanted to turn down

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<v Speaker 1>the temperature on Australia's housing market and help young people

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<v Speaker 1>get a foot onto the property ladder, But just months

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<v Speaker 1>after Labour's property tax shakeup. Home values are crashing, investors

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<v Speaker 1>are running scared, and taxpayers are underwriting billions of dollars

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<v Speaker 1>of debt. So was this all part of the plan.

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<v Speaker 1>The Australian's Political editor, Jeff Chambers is here in just

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<v Speaker 1>a moment. The property market is recording its worst auction

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<v Speaker 1>clearance rates in nearly a decade. We are seeing the

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<v Speaker 1>first fallouts of the federal budget, which are driving by

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<v Speaker 1>a uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 2>Australia has experienced its sharpest monthly fall and house prices

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<v Speaker 2>in nearly four years, as interest rates and tax changers

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<v Speaker 2>take a combined.

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<v Speaker 1>Jeff Chambers is The Australian's Political editor and Jeff, it's

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<v Speaker 1>been a couple of months now since the Albanezy government

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<v Speaker 1>announced a pretty major shake up to Australia's property tax legislation.

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<v Speaker 3>We'll limit negative gearing for residential property to new builds

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<v Speaker 3>from July next year, and we're replacing the fifty percent

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<v Speaker 3>capital gains tax discount with inflation adjusted indexation to restore

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<v Speaker 3>the taxation of real gains.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think it's all working out as intended?

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<v Speaker 4>From the Labor government's perspective, this is how they wanted

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<v Speaker 4>things to pan out. They want house prices to fall.

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<v Speaker 4>They want first home buyers to have a leg up,

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<v Speaker 4>and even if that means that auction clearance rates aren't

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<v Speaker 4>at the same level as they were, If that means

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<v Speaker 4>four months straight of property values going down for the

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<v Speaker 4>Albanesi government from Anthony Albernesi and Jim Charmers down, this

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<v Speaker 4>was their intention. So they do have some policies in

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<v Speaker 4>place to support that, which was around crackdown on negative gearing,

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<v Speaker 4>capital gains, discount trusts, but that still got a bit

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<v Speaker 4>of a wall to play out. The key driver that

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<v Speaker 4>we're seeing is sort of multi folded in terms of

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<v Speaker 4>you know, we've got all these A lot of them

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<v Speaker 4>are Coalition Morrison government era COVID programs intended to help

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<v Speaker 4>first home buyers get into the market. This has generally

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<v Speaker 4>been a state and territory based issue that under Scott

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<v Speaker 4>Morrison has now become a national issue and it's been

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<v Speaker 4>put on steroids. So all the reasonable caps, checks and

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<v Speaker 4>balances have been removed by this government. It's cut blanche.

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<v Speaker 4>It's a free for all. So you're trying to now

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<v Speaker 4>invite these first home buyers in. It doesn't matter how

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<v Speaker 4>old they are. It doesn't matter how much money they're earning.

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<v Speaker 4>The caps on how much in terms of the value

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<v Speaker 4>of the home is enormous. And then you've got interest

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<v Speaker 4>rates also higher. So it's that sort of combined feel

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<v Speaker 4>for investors who feel like, Okay, this market it's not

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<v Speaker 4>looking too good at the moment, and that confidence is out.

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<v Speaker 4>So yes, you might get more first home buyers in,

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<v Speaker 4>but the overall value of the property market since March quarter,

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<v Speaker 4>which was twelve point seven seven trillion, we've now seen

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<v Speaker 4>up to one hundred and seventy billion dollars of that

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<v Speaker 4>value shaped off.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Senior Labor ministers like Tenure Plippisec are saying, as

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<v Speaker 1>you said, that this policy is all being executed as planned,

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<v Speaker 1>that it's making home ownership more achievable for more people.

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<v Speaker 1>There's never been a better time to be a first

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<v Speaker 1>home buyer. Not in my lifetime has there been a

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<v Speaker 1>better time to be a first home buyer in Australia.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm so happy to see.

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<v Speaker 1>The Treasurer of Jim Chalmers has said, actually it's the

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<v Speaker 1>conflict in the Middle East that's causing the market to

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<v Speaker 1>kind of spiral, and that Labour's policies will cause home

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<v Speaker 1>values to increase, albeit slower than they were before.

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<v Speaker 5>And so all of those things together are playing a

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<v Speaker 5>role here, not just one factor or another. And we

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<v Speaker 5>continue to expect over the course of the coming years

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<v Speaker 5>that prices will continue to rise, but more modestly than before.

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<v Speaker 1>But it seems that young people, who ostensibly this policy

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<v Speaker 1>was desig to help get into homes aren't coming into

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<v Speaker 1>the market at the rate that perhaps the government anticipated,

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<v Speaker 1>and equally, investors are hesitating because the value on new

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<v Speaker 1>builds just isn't there in the long term. Of course,

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<v Speaker 1>new builds are exempted from the changes to negative gearing

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<v Speaker 1>that was announced on Federal budget night. So what do

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<v Speaker 1>you make of the messaging that's coming out of the

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<v Speaker 1>government on this issue.

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, so we've got labor politicians out every day since

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<v Speaker 4>the budget and they use this line that was in

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<v Speaker 4>the budget supplementary papers and they say that the property

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<v Speaker 4>market will grow but a bit slower. In fact, since

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<v Speaker 4>the budget, the property market hasn't grown. That Treasury wording

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<v Speaker 4>it jumped out to me at the time. That is

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<v Speaker 4>very optimistic, That is very unlikely to be fact. But

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<v Speaker 4>it's a typical case of treasury and bureaucrats trying to

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<v Speaker 4>prop up the political outcomes that were wanted by this government,

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<v Speaker 4>and what were those outcomes. Well, the equation was made

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<v Speaker 4>through count focus groups and polling that labor had to

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<v Speaker 4>make a big play for the younger generations. So we

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<v Speaker 4>hear a lot about polling. And if any Australian has asked,

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<v Speaker 4>and this is the same for a whole range of issues,

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<v Speaker 4>do you think it would be a good thing for

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<v Speaker 4>these younger guys to crack the market and house prices

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<v Speaker 4>might come down a little bit. Well, a grand parent

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<v Speaker 4>or a parent might say, well, yeah, look, I think

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<v Speaker 4>that is a good thing if that helps, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>Jimmy or Johnny or whatever it might be get the market. Well,

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<v Speaker 4>I'm happy with that. Now, if you were to say

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<v Speaker 4>something a bit more specific to these people, say well,

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<v Speaker 4>your house values and to go down from one point

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<v Speaker 4>five to one million, are you okay with that? You're

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<v Speaker 4>going to get a different result. There's a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>debate over why the market is the way it currently is.

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<v Speaker 4>Is it because of interest rates? Wasn't just too high

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<v Speaker 4>as it was, but this government has certainly distorted the

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<v Speaker 4>market to a point where I think we are seeing

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<v Speaker 4>a crashing confidence and we are seeing material impacts at

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<v Speaker 4>auctions in the major capital cities and further afield. But

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<v Speaker 4>I think the issue is we're seeing people, particularly those

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<v Speaker 4>under these government schemes last year, who have paid a

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<v Speaker 4>lot of money with some government support, and then you

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<v Speaker 4>talk about negative equity, and I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding,

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<v Speaker 4>probably on purpose, across the government ranks, about negative equity,

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<v Speaker 4>and when they're asked about negative equity and the risk

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<v Speaker 4>that is carried through negative equity, they often will just say, well,

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<v Speaker 4>we're just happy that these younger people or first home

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<v Speaker 4>buyers are crack in the market.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Our colleague Noah Yim reported that the government's decision to

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<v Speaker 1>remove the cap on the First home Buyers Guarantee scheme,

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<v Speaker 1>which allows people to buy a property with as little

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<v Speaker 1>as a five percent deposit with the government guaranteeing that loan,

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<v Speaker 1>that that means that tax payers are now underwriting couples

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<v Speaker 1>making in some instances almost seven hundred thousand dollars a

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<v Speaker 1>year combined. They would previously have been ineligible for that

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<v Speaker 1>scheme because they're earning too much. Again, labor ministers like

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<v Speaker 1>ten ycond Jim Chalmers have been optimistic about that, again,

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<v Speaker 1>saying it's making this more achievable for more people. But

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<v Speaker 1>is it actually just putting up more roadblocks to people

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<v Speaker 1>who genuinely need a scheme like that in order to

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<v Speaker 1>get onto the property ladder.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>I think this has been a common theme since the

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<v Speaker 4>Albanezi government was elected in twenty twenty two, whether it

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<v Speaker 4>was EV subsidies or in these housing areas. They don't

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<v Speaker 4>love means testing and they don't like capping programs, and

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<v Speaker 4>that means it costs a lot of money to underwrite

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<v Speaker 4>these things, to fund these types of schemes, and I

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<v Speaker 4>think some economists are correct to call a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>these programs middle to upper class welfare, middle class welfare.

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<v Speaker 4>What is the true intention of this? Is it to

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<v Speaker 4>buy boats? Is it to try and support their political

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<v Speaker 4>hopes that these younger folks that they help into a

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<v Speaker 4>home will always remember we've got to support labor. Or

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<v Speaker 4>is it really about getting genuine first home buyers people

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<v Speaker 4>in their twenties thirties, not people from overseas, not people

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<v Speaker 4>who are older people who are supposed to get into

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<v Speaker 4>a home. Does that home have to be in a

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<v Speaker 4>nicer suburb? Well, a lot of older folk who did

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<v Speaker 4>buy their home will argue that they had to go

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<v Speaker 4>out and buy in the verbs. And I think that's

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<v Speaker 4>the problem that we see a lot with younger people

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<v Speaker 4>is they want to be close to home, They want

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<v Speaker 4>to be close to their families. But sometimes, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>you got to you got to make the sacrifice and

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<v Speaker 4>make those hard decisions. But when these governments are just

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<v Speaker 4>doing these open ended schemes, all very generous schemes, why

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<v Speaker 4>wouldn't you tap into it? I mean, I wish. I'm

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<v Speaker 4>sure if I had an opportunity again and this was available,

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<v Speaker 4>I would probably do the same thing. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>And the other issue that is incredibly hot here that

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<v Speaker 1>also weaves into this issue is migration. Tell me a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit about how that's factoring into the situation we

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<v Speaker 1>now find ourselves in.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think it's you know, this is a labor

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<v Speaker 4>government that back in twenty twenty three pledged that they

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<v Speaker 4>would build one point two million new well located homes

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<v Speaker 4>by mid twenty twenty nine. We're way off that we're

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<v Speaker 4>not going to hit that mark. And that's a real

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<v Speaker 4>shame because one point two million on it's sort of

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<v Speaker 4>just a pretty moderate year of where we've been traditionally

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<v Speaker 4>in recent years that should have been able to be achieved.

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<v Speaker 4>So you've got all these issues with the housing market.

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<v Speaker 4>Everyone's obsessed with talking about the housing market, so you

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<v Speaker 4>look for something to go, well, okay, why are we

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<v Speaker 4>in this position? Well, it must be immigration, and immigration

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<v Speaker 4>covers so many areas. It covers transport, networks, community infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 4>housing supply. And we have had this huge surge in

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<v Speaker 4>post pandemic migration, two record levels, and those people have

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<v Speaker 4>to live somewhere. So we see one nation and now

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<v Speaker 4>the coalition following one nation leaning very heavily into that area,

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<v Speaker 4>calling for restrictions in terms of who can purchase property

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<v Speaker 4>in this country.

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<v Speaker 2>And I don't believe that foreigners should own any house

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<v Speaker 2>in Australia or our farming land. My attitude is i'd

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<v Speaker 2>actually stop them, and I'd say I'll give you two

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<v Speaker 2>years to sell your product. If you don't, it will

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<v Speaker 2>be And.

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<v Speaker 4>Then you've got labor holding the line around their migration program.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think a lot of that again, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>being cynical as a political journalist is because of vote getting.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, there's a lot of areas where you've got

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<v Speaker 4>big multicultural communities. But the fact there is a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of those multicultural communities, a lot of them have come

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<v Speaker 4>into this country the right way. They themselves are very frustrated.

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<v Speaker 4>They look around and think, ah, this is a problem too.

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<v Speaker 4>So you get the true issues around supply and demand,

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<v Speaker 4>but then you get these tangential issues which are real

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<v Speaker 4>issues too, which takes in migration. And I think come

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<v Speaker 4>the next election, whether it's later next year or early

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<v Speaker 4>twenty twenty eight, migration will absolutely be a hot button

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<v Speaker 4>issue for voters.

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<v Speaker 1>Just lastly, Jeff, we've been here once before when the

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<v Speaker 1>then Treasurer at Paul Keating attempted to quarantine as it

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<v Speaker 1>was called at the time, negative gearing that push rents,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly in Australia's capital cities as investors attempted to recoup

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<v Speaker 1>some of the financial losses that they made as a

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<v Speaker 1>result of that decision. That was reversed by the hawk

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<v Speaker 1>Keating government just two years later in nineteen eighty seven,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's been a pretty hot issue in elections ever

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<v Speaker 1>since then, and particularly since Bill Shorten introduced that as

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<v Speaker 1>a policy and lost at an election. If I can

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<v Speaker 1>ask you to look into your crystal ball for a second,

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<v Speaker 1>do you think we'll see a similar reversal from the

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<v Speaker 1>Albanese government if this situation gets bad enough, or do

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<v Speaker 1>you think that they will stay the course, Noting that

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<v Speaker 1>we're still a couple of years out from an election

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<v Speaker 1>and there is time for the electorate and for the

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<v Speaker 1>market to.

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<v Speaker 4>Settle, they're going to stay the course. This is their

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<v Speaker 4>big generational reform play. They'll live or die by this.

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<v Speaker 4>They've all been wanting to do this for a long time.

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<v Speaker 4>The argument is that it's a different time to when

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<v Speaker 4>Bill Shorten tried to do this in twenty nineteen. Bill Shorten,

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<v Speaker 4>I'm sure we'll disagree with that, but this is their

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<v Speaker 4>big generational reform piece. The long term effects it'll come

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<v Speaker 4>outside the election cycle. And I spoke about the one

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<v Speaker 4>point two million target for new homes that comes in

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<v Speaker 4>mid twenty twenty nine, So you realize a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>these guys targets will come after the next election, and

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<v Speaker 4>whoever's in charge, then good luck. If they win the

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<v Speaker 4>next election, there's going to be a lot of things

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<v Speaker 4>where the government hasn't met the expectations that they've set

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<v Speaker 4>for voters.

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<v Speaker 1>Jeff Chambers, thank you very much. Thanks Jeff Chambers, is

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<v Speaker 1>The Australian's political editor. You can read the latest in Newssport,

0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:41.040
<v Speaker 1>business and politics right now at the Australian dot com

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<v Speaker 1>dot au