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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Hot inflation dashes hopes of an interest rate cut on

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Speaker 1: Melbourne Cup Day next week. Woolly sales disappoint though the

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Speaker 1: supermarket's outlook is improving, and both Microsoft and Apple past

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Speaker 1: four trillion US dollars in market capitalization. Plus the federal

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Speaker 1: government is under fire over a lack of new social

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Speaker 1: housing and social media companies get creative finding ways to

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Speaker 1: block under sixteen year olds. It is Thursday, the thirtieth

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Speaker 1: of October twenty twenty five. Are Michael Thompson and Good Morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael, Sean. The main story this morning,

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Speaker 1: hopes of a rate cut on Melbourne Cup Day next

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Speaker 1: week have been dashed with a surprise jump in inflation,

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Speaker 1: the first annual increase in underlying price measures in three years.

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Speaker 1: Where did this come from?

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Speaker 2: Well, the September quarter inflation came in at a whopping

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Speaker 2: one point three percent, thanks in part to the end

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Speaker 2: of government electricity rebates. More important is the underlying or

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Speaker 2: trimmed mean measure of inflation that takes out the top

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Speaker 2: fifteen percent and bottom fifteen percent of price rises or reductions.

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Speaker 2: That number that trimmed mean number jumped one percent, way

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Speaker 2: above the Reserve Bank's forecast of zero point six percent.

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Speaker 2: The September quarter reading is only one number from the

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Speaker 2: Australian Bureau of Statistics, but according to market economists, it

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Speaker 2: has pretty much ended the interest rate cutting cycle at

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Speaker 2: least this year. Annual trimmed mean inflation is now running

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Speaker 2: at three percent, at the very top end of the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Banks target band. The headline inflation rate, at three

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Speaker 2: point two percent, is at a fifteen month high already.

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock sounded lukewarm about future rate

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Speaker 2: cuts when the Central Bank Board meets next Tuesday. There's

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Speaker 2: not really any chance, perhaps very little chance, but i'd

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Speaker 2: say no chance of a shift in rates. The increase

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Speaker 2: in prices was widespread, from electricity cars, domestic holiday travel,

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Speaker 2: through to rents, petrol and tobacco. That ain't necessarily a

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Speaker 2: good thing. Services inflation remains high, in fact, it actually increased.

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Speaker 2: But the worry is that goods inflation, stuff that you

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Speaker 2: can buy off the shelf, that's also rising. That's always

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Speaker 2: been the thing that's been running at less than two percent.

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Speaker 2: Economists don't think that's related to US tariffs, just in

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Speaker 2: case you were wondering that, Michael. But just the fact

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Speaker 2: that both services and goods inflation has risen is the problem.

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Speaker 1: You can see. I've got my puzzled, You have your

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Speaker 1: puzzle face. Can you explain something to me. I'm assuming

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Speaker 1: here that there's no rate cut. That's the bottom line here.

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Speaker 1: But how do we get taken by surprise so much

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Speaker 1: with this? Because the Reserve Bank was forecasting point six

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Speaker 1: for the underlying inflation rate economists broadly, we're tipping a

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Speaker 1: bit higher than that at point eight and one percent

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Speaker 1: is well above both of those expectations. But I know

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Speaker 1: we've got these monthly inflation figures which aren't a complete overview.

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Speaker 1: But how do we still get that so wrong?

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Speaker 2: It's unusual to get it this far wrong. A few

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Speaker 2: things happened. The goods inflation jumping was important. There are

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Speaker 2: also signs that businesses are passing through higher costs to consumers.

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Speaker 2: So when there's electricity, we've got the electricity rebate came off,

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Speaker 2: so you think, oh, okay, that's a much higher electricity

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Speaker 2: bill for you and I. Maybe some of that will

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Speaker 2: be taken by the provider. They didn't. They actually passed

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Speaker 2: it all on and consumers paid for it. And so

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Speaker 2: I think that what we have seen in this CPI

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Speaker 2: result is business keeping their profit levels reasonably healthy and

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Speaker 2: passing on higher costs to consumers. Now I'm not saying

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Speaker 2: that is definitely correct, but that's what it feels like happening.

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Speaker 2: And the bottom line number, that one percent was a

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Speaker 2: real shock to.

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Speaker 1: Everyone, and it does mean really no rate cut next week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Michelle Bullock, earlier in the weeks at

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Speaker 2: a trim demean outcome of zero point nine percent would

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Speaker 2: be a material miss on inflation. We got one percent.

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Speaker 2: In the economics world, that's a big material miss. Surey

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Speaker 2: all sorts. No rate cup this year, Michael. Some economists

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Speaker 2: argue the rate cutting cycle isn't over. Next February, we

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Speaker 2: might see your reduction, but I wouldn't hold your breath

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Speaker 2: based on yesterday's numbers.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, now, the news immediately sent the share market lower

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Speaker 1: the s and basx two hundred and then finishing one

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Speaker 1: percent lower at eighty nine hundred and twenty six points.

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Speaker 2: Pretty Much all of that full happened in the sort

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Speaker 2: of half hour or so after that late eleven thirty

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Speaker 2: am announcement. The property and banking sectors, both which are

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Speaker 2: interst rate sensitive, led the market lower, so they Goodman

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Speaker 2: Center Group, Stockland, Mervack. They all closed lower. The big

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Speaker 2: banks were all lower. Healthcare stocks, which are less interest

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Speaker 2: rate sensitive, they also fell, but that's because CSL dropped

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Speaker 2: four percent after Tuesday's earnings down grade. Away from equities,

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Speaker 2: the Aussie dollar rallied, pushing above sixty six US cents.

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Speaker 2: Higher rates in Australia makes Australia relatively more attractive for

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Speaker 2: overseas investors, so they buy Ossie. The Australian dollar bond

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Speaker 2: traders from now priced in just a four percent chance

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Speaker 2: of a rate cut next week.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's look overseas. What about Wall Street? What's

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Speaker 1: going on?

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Speaker 2: We know in the next twenty four to thirty six

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Speaker 2: hours some of the biggest tech companies are reporting.

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Speaker 1: Ahead of that.

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Speaker 2: Both Microsoft and Apple pushed through the four trillion US

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Speaker 2: dollar mark in terms of their value their market capitalization.

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Speaker 2: Pretty impressive. It happened after open Ai, owner of chat GPT,

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Speaker 2: said it was giving long term back of Microsoft twenty

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Speaker 2: seven percent ownership of the company. Now it's not a gift.

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Speaker 2: They've been negotiating this for about twelve months.

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Speaker 1: It's important to clarify that, so it's not just handing.

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Speaker 2: It over that pushed Microsoft end Apple beyond that four

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Speaker 2: trillion US dollar mark. What was even more interesting, as

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Speaker 2: far as I'm concerned, it values open Ai, which isn't listed.

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Speaker 2: It's a private company at seven hundred and sixty two

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Speaker 2: billion dollars. If that was listed on the New York

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Speaker 2: Stock Exchange, it would be the fourteenth large just a company.

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Speaker 2: This is a company that's two or three years old,

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Speaker 2: Is that right? Very very well? Has really come to

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Speaker 2: our knowledge and.

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Speaker 1: It existed for a while, but it's certainly kind of

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Speaker 1: been a bigger player since launch chat JPT.

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Speaker 2: It's bigger than Visa, bigger than MasterCard, bigger than next

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Speaker 2: on Mobile, Bank of America, Coca Cola, Morgan Stanley, etcetera, etcetera.

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Speaker 2: Quite phenomenal, and Vidi remains the market leader. That's worth

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Speaker 2: four point eight five trillion US dollars than Microsoft and

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Speaker 2: Apple just quickly. While on big tech. Chair of Tesla

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Speaker 2: Australian born Robin Denholm. In fact, she's not just Australian born,

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Speaker 2: cheers and Aussie through she has stepped up her campaign

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Speaker 2: to convince their shareholders to agree to a ten year,

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Speaker 2: one trillion the US dollar pay package for mister Musk,

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Speaker 2: warning there is no elon Musk too. If the board

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Speaker 2: is forced to replace him as chief executive.

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Speaker 1: That's a good point. If not him, who else.

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Speaker 2: That's right, that's her point.

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Speaker 1: Okay, just quickly. Copper continues to trade near record highs.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it is worth a mention. We've discussed. Copper is

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Speaker 2: the bill wheather commodity because it's used in so many products,

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Speaker 2: electrical wirying, cars, construction, fertilizes, medical apparatus. There you go,

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Speaker 2: all sorts of things. It's considered a good reflection of

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Speaker 2: how strong the global economy is performing. The market is

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Speaker 2: at near record high. The price of copper is at

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Speaker 2: a new record high, very much as traders await the

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Speaker 2: outcome of the US China talks the next forty eight hours,

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Speaker 2: which does suggest the global economy is doing pretty well.

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Speaker 2: But I'm not so sure about that.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, big start to the show. We'll be

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Speaker 1: back in a moment with the rest of the day's

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Speaker 1: business news. Sean Woolworths has reported disappointing sales for the

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Speaker 1: September quarter, despite a push to cut prices, but chief

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Speaker 1: executive Amanda Bardwell insists that there are some green shoots

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Speaker 1: at the supermarket. I imagine they would be in the

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Speaker 1: fresh produce section.

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Speaker 2: They're online potatoes home that had been sitting there for

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Speaker 2: weeks and weeks. Did you know, you know we're away

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Speaker 2: for ten weeks. We bought potatoes. We've been going through

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Speaker 2: the house and I found some nicely sprouting potatoes.

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Speaker 1: Nothing to do with Woolies.

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Speaker 2: I might have bought them at Woollies, but nothing to

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Speaker 2: do with that. Investors agree that there are green shirts,

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Speaker 2: not of my potatoes, but at Woolies. Its share price

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Speaker 2: was up almost two and a half percent yesterday, and

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Speaker 2: that was a day when the market was sharply lower.

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Speaker 2: Serve market sales at the retailers eleven hundred stores grew

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Speaker 2: by two point one percent just under fourteen billion dollars

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Speaker 2: in the quarter. TATO sales, which includes of course Big

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Speaker 2: w and the New Zealand business, up two point seven percent.

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Speaker 2: Chief Executive Amanda Bardwell said the sales figures were below

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Speaker 2: her aspirations and there remains more to do, but she

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Speaker 2: added that three weeks into the new quarter sales were stronger.

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Speaker 2: Fresh and grocery food sales were good. Last quarter, pet

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Speaker 2: and baby products lower. Interestingly, the sale of tobacco half

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Speaker 2: of what it was a year ago. Coals Coals reports today.

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Speaker 1: Oh god, tobacco sales is being hammered by that illicit trade.

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Speaker 1: Aren't they all right over the place now in camera?

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Speaker 1: The federal government's ten billion dollar Housing Australia Future Fund

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Speaker 1: is being audited after criticisms that it isn't delivering enough

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Speaker 1: social and affordable housing.

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Speaker 2: The fund is supposed to deliver forty thousand new homes,

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Speaker 2: and now the National Audit Office will be checking whether

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Speaker 2: the design of the fund is actually working. Established in

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Speaker 2: late twenty twenty three, is part of the goal for

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Speaker 2: the public and private sectors to build one point two

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Speaker 2: million homes by the middle of twenty twenty nine. The

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Speaker 2: fund so far has delivered not quite the forty thousand.

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Speaker 2: It's delivered about five hundred homes.

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Speaker 1: I think that would be a material miss.

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Speaker 2: I think so the material miss according to the AVC,

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Speaker 2: Because isn't it good that we can link the stories?

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, through our silliness.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I just get so much jargon that I can

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Speaker 1: just drop into everyday conversation.

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Speaker 2: Got into the AVC. The cost of each house has

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Speaker 2: also been much higher, average about seven one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty thousand dollars. Has a lot of money to build

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Speaker 2: a house, certainly is some of them more than a

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Speaker 2: million dollars. I'd like to see these houses. Hasn't been

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Speaker 2: an easy run for the FUN. Last Friday chair Carol

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Speaker 2: Austin said she'd resign. It came after allegations last year

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Speaker 2: that she bullied staff, and investigation found no formal breaches

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Speaker 2: of the code of conduct for the organization.

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Speaker 1: The turnaround in the small business momentum continues, with the

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Speaker 1: lower interest rates boosting consumer spending, which is then helping

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Speaker 1: business exactly.

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Speaker 2: That's a takeout from Zero's Small Business Insights report, and

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Speaker 2: the good news is that momentum is building ahead of

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Speaker 2: the holiday season. Sales growth in the September quarter was

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Speaker 2: the highest in two years. Tasmania and the construction industry

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Speaker 2: have led the rebound, while nearly one in three small

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Speaker 2: businesses threw their workforce, the highest share in nearly two years.

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Speaker 1: One of the country's biggest health insurers, Medibank Private, wants

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Speaker 1: to more than double earnings from its health services business

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Speaker 1: by twenty thirty.

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Speaker 2: So Medibank wants to shift from its core insurance business

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Speaker 2: reposition itself as a health care provider over the next

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Speaker 2: five years. You raise your eyebrows, but if I explain

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Speaker 2: it to you'll think, oh, yeah, of course everyone's doing it.

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Speaker 2: It basically wants to grow. It serves as business. It

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Speaker 2: wants to buy stuff. It's already got a joint venture

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Speaker 2: with Ampler Health, which provides online and telehealth services and

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Speaker 2: home care. It's been investing in short stay hospitals. But

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Speaker 2: if you think Boop is an example as well, they're

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Speaker 2: repositioning themselves as healthcare providers. They're investing in preventative health,

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Speaker 2: which of course helps their insurance business. But like dental clinics,

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Speaker 2: optical stores, medical centers, that sort of stuff.

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Speaker 1: That does make sense. You said, I was going to agree,

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Speaker 1: I was going to see the light. Social media groups

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Speaker 1: Sean scrambling to find ways to operate under the incoming

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Speaker 1: rules banning under sixteen year olds from using their apps,

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Speaker 1: with say Snapchat, for example, set to allow fifteen year

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Speaker 1: olds to freeze their accounts until they turn sixteen, rather

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Speaker 1: than what just delete them entirely.

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Speaker 2: So could you imagine telling your fifteen year old son

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Speaker 2: or daughter, you've got to delete your account.

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Speaker 1: I don't have a fifteen No, I can imagine that

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Speaker 1: would be high risk, high risk.

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Speaker 2: There's just under forty days until the band kicks in,

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Speaker 2: and executives from Meta, TikTok, and Snap have been appearing

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Speaker 2: at Centered Estimates hearings. They all outlined high level steps

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Speaker 2: that's going to be taken under the legislation. TikTok said

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Speaker 2: parents will be able to report in their kids. For example,

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to try that one either, but you know,

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Speaker 2: I'm fortunate. My youngest is just turned seventeen, so I'm

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Speaker 2: beyond this. But Michael, it's all in front of you.

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Speaker 2: Snap will freeze some accounts, while Meta said it will

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Speaker 2: adopt a waterfall approach, using the least intrusive ways to

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Speaker 2: confirm a user's age before progressing to more onerous methods.

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Speaker 2: All three companies said they'll do register users who they

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Speaker 2: know are under sixteen years. TikTok's got About has about

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Speaker 2: two hundred thousand teens in that group, Snap at about

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Speaker 2: four thousand, four hundred users in that group, for.

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Speaker 1: Four hundred and forty Monice thousand, four thousand, you had

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Speaker 1: four hundred and forty.

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Speaker 2: No, that's not many. Four hundred and forty thousand.

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Speaker 1: How about that. That's a lot. Yeah, that is actually,

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Speaker 1: that is and interesting that it's actually more popular with

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Speaker 1: snap with Snapchat for younger TikTok. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so TikTok. Interestingly, TikTok is. We had a meeting

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Speaker 2: about this yesterday, and TikTok is swaying a little older,

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Speaker 2: which is interesting.

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Speaker 1: That is interesting. Well, you see it on the train.

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Speaker 1: I see it, and you just see people of all

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Speaker 1: ages just scrolling, scrolling and scrolling. Occasionally they see a

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Speaker 1: little Fear and Greed video and then they scrolled even faster.

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Speaker 1: Sean turning to international news now and US President Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump that says he would cut tariffs imposed on China

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Speaker 1: over the flow of chemical ingredients for fentanyl. As he

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Speaker 1: arrived in South Korea ahead of a high stakes summit

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Speaker 1: with Chinese leader Jijinping. Everyone's watching this one, yep.

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Speaker 2: Trump said he'd lower the twenty percent tariff he imposed

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Speaker 2: earlier in his term. The levy was designed to put

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Speaker 2: pressure on Beijing to curb the export of precursor chemicals

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Speaker 2: used to make these synthetic opioid. According to a story

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Speaker 2: in the Ft The comment came days after the US

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Speaker 2: and Chinese officials wrapped up trade talks that produced a

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Speaker 2: tentative deal for Trump and She to approve when they

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Speaker 2: meet at Apec tonight.

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Speaker 1: Now, more than sixty people were killed in Rio de

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Speaker 1: Janeiro following a police raid against one of Brazil's top

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Speaker 1: drug cartels that became the most lethal in the city's history.

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Speaker 2: Gunfights erupted between security forces and gang members following the

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Speaker 2: deployment of two and a half thousand agents early on

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Speaker 2: Tuesday in poor hillside communities believed to be a stronghold

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Speaker 2: of a criminal faction. The sixty four fatalities included four officers,

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Speaker 2: according to the state government, and more than eighty suspects

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Speaker 2: were arrested. Police said alleged gang members used drones to

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Speaker 2: drop bombs on special forces during the raid. According to

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Speaker 2: The Financial Times, the operation in favela complexes in the

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Speaker 2: city's northern outskirts occurred days before Rio is due to

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Speaker 2: host events linked to the COP thirty climate summit. Now,

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Speaker 2: rising cocaine consumption in Europe and the US has fueled

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Speaker 2: the expansion of South American Nichotics Cartels Brazil in August

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Speaker 2: launched what it said was its largest ever operation against

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Speaker 2: organized crime, targeting an alleged multi billion dollar money laundering

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Speaker 2: scheme orchestrated by a large drug gang and involving fuel sales,

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Speaker 2: fintech companies, and investment funds. Wow, the size of this

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Speaker 2: is extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: Okay. Up next is Fear and Greed Q and A

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Speaker 1: and something a little bit different shorm I don't normally

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Speaker 1: speak to politicians on the show, but your guest in

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Speaker 1: the studio today is New South Wales Treasurer Daniel Mooki.

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Speaker 2: So Daniel, as part of the government's efforts, not just

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Speaker 2: New South Wales but the whole of the country efforts,

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Speaker 2: is trying to attract fund managers into this country and

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Speaker 2: potentially have them headquartered here for the region. So we

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Speaker 2: talk to them all about that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great Chatter's coming up next to the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at

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Speaker 1: Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is also where you

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Speaker 1: sign up for our free daily newsletter and go into

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Speaker 1: the draw to win Fear and Greed merch Thank you Sean,

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Speaker 1: Thank you Michael It's Thursday, the thirty of October twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and join

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Speaker 1: us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok, and Facebook. I'm

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson. That was fear and greed. Have a great day.