1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,719
Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gatigel

2
00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:04,080
Speaker 1: people of the Eur Nation.

3
00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:11,040
Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to the Real Story with Joe Hildebrand.

4
00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:15,120
Speaker 2: Another blockbuster episode this week, plenty going on. What is

5
00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:17,759
Speaker 2: the real story with the New South Wales Labor Conference.

6
00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,120
Speaker 2: It is the biggest and the best labor conference in

7
00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:23,120
Speaker 2: the country for the nine to nine percent of people.

8
00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:25,439
Speaker 2: They don't give a raths butt for political nerds. It

9
00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,600
Speaker 2: is like Christmas. It is awesome, and no national conference

10
00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:30,840
Speaker 2: is not the biggest or the best. It's what happens

11
00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:33,760
Speaker 2: in Sydney town Hall that really really matters. Plus what's

12
00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:37,160
Speaker 2: going on with Albow's reshuffle? What is he really trying

13
00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:40,159
Speaker 2: to achieve by demoting one of the ministers for poor

14
00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:42,720
Speaker 2: performance and then putting her in one of the most

15
00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:45,720
Speaker 2: important portfolios. I'll give you the real story behind that.

16
00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:53,600
Speaker 2: All that more coming up. Okay, first, I'm going to

17
00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:55,200
Speaker 2: throw a bit of red meat to all the political

18
00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,560
Speaker 2: nerds out there, and quite frankly, if you're listening to this,

19
00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,760
Speaker 2: you are a political nerd. This was, of course a

20
00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:05,160
Speaker 2: New South Wales State Labor Conference, which is the best.

21
00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:07,560
Speaker 2: It is awesome. There is, of course a national conference

22
00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:09,480
Speaker 2: that goes on it's nowhere near as fun as what

23
00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,880
Speaker 2: happens in New South Wales in Sydney Town Hall. This

24
00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,080
Speaker 2: is the spiritual home of the Australian Labor Party. It

25
00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:18,160
Speaker 2: is also the spiritual home of the New South Wales Right,

26
00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:21,280
Speaker 2: which is the backbone of the Australian Labor Party, or

27
00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,920
Speaker 2: at least it is when everything's going swimmingly. And we

28
00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:30,040
Speaker 2: had the Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi address the conference on Saturday.

29
00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,280
Speaker 2: There were protesters outside, no one got inside, no one

30
00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:39,920
Speaker 2: stormed the barricades and there was one sole protester, sol delegate,

31
00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:45,039
Speaker 2: who unfilled a Palestinian flag while the Prime Minister Anthony

32
00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:48,200
Speaker 2: Albanesi was trying to talk about anything but Palestine, trying

33
00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:49,920
Speaker 2: to talk about cost of living because he knows that

34
00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,440
Speaker 2: that's what everyone wants him to talk about. What did

35
00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:56,120
Speaker 2: happen though, in the middle of the PM's speech is

36
00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:59,919
Speaker 2: that a bunch of delegates from the Electrical Trades Union.

37
00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:02,600
Speaker 2: As the PM got up to speak, they got up

38
00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:06,800
Speaker 2: too and walked out. They boycotted the PM's speech. Again.

39
00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:08,720
Speaker 2: Left loves to boycott things because you know, when you

40
00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:12,280
Speaker 2: stand up and walk out on someone, then they're gonna

41
00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,040
Speaker 2: suddenly change their mind about everything they've believed in their

42
00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:19,080
Speaker 2: whole lives. Anyway, Albo, who to his great credit, has

43
00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,440
Speaker 2: already changed his mind about a couple of things he's believed,

44
00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:26,200
Speaker 2: got up did his speech, you know, rallied the troops. Obviously,

45
00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:28,720
Speaker 2: we've got an election coming up at some point over

46
00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:32,480
Speaker 2: the next nine months, and you know, he needs to

47
00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:36,840
Speaker 2: use this opportunity, the first time that a new South

48
00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:40,360
Speaker 2: Wales Premier and a new South Wales Prime Minister have

49
00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:42,960
Speaker 2: been at the same Labor conference in god knows how long,

50
00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:47,200
Speaker 2: at this historic moment, needs to get the party behind him.

51
00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,920
Speaker 2: He's you know, he's flagging the polls. Donte's creeping up

52
00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:52,320
Speaker 2: on him. The coalition is ahead according to a lot

53
00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,760
Speaker 2: of polls in two party preferred terms. So he needs

54
00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:56,040
Speaker 2: all the help he can get. And what did the

55
00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,799
Speaker 2: left do, those great champions of solidarity, What does this

56
00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,800
Speaker 2: rump of the left do to a left wing prime

57
00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,919
Speaker 2: minister from the left faction of the Labor Party. They

58
00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:12,359
Speaker 2: get up and they walk out, they turn away, And

59
00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,720
Speaker 2: why do they do this? For what noble cause? What

60
00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,320
Speaker 2: possible thing could be more important than the sanctity and

61
00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:22,720
Speaker 2: integrity of the great Australian Labor Party and the cause

62
00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:26,239
Speaker 2: of the Progressive Left in Australia. It wasn't the War

63
00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,240
Speaker 2: in Gaza. It was the war on John Setca because

64
00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:34,440
Speaker 2: the e tou were upset that Anthony Albanezi was cracking

65
00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:38,840
Speaker 2: down on alleged corruption in the CFMEU. And yes, you

66
00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,720
Speaker 2: heard all those capital letters correctly, not even their own union,

67
00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:45,000
Speaker 2: another union that they just happened to like, they're just

68
00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,880
Speaker 2: happen to be comrades with, be aligned with. So these

69
00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:52,240
Speaker 2: guys decided, and again, who gives the rats? They can

70
00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,560
Speaker 2: get up, they can walk. No one cares that much anyway,

71
00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:57,480
Speaker 2: although it could matter because there's some numbers going on

72
00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:00,320
Speaker 2: I'll tell you about very shortly. These guys just that

73
00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:02,640
Speaker 2: the ditch they're going to die in. The thing that's

74
00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:07,080
Speaker 2: worth trying to humiliate or undermine a crucial speech from

75
00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,400
Speaker 2: a prime minister who's fighting for his political life. Is

76
00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:17,839
Speaker 2: that prime minister daring to tackle union corruption. You just

77
00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:20,479
Speaker 2: wouldn't read about it, unless, of course, you read my column,

78
00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:22,480
Speaker 2: in which case you would have literally just read about it.

79
00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,279
Speaker 2: So why did the ETU choose not the war in

80
00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,279
Speaker 2: Gaza but the war on John Setka to take their

81
00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:33,120
Speaker 2: mighty stand on and to undermine their own Prime Minister

82
00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,560
Speaker 2: in his greatest hour of need. Is it just because

83
00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:40,000
Speaker 2: they love the c FMU so very very much they

84
00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:43,240
Speaker 2: all get together and gather in the woods and play

85
00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:47,960
Speaker 2: African drums, do trust exercises? I'm not sure. Quite possibly.

86
00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:55,040
Speaker 2: Another possible reason is that if the CFMEU is disaffiliated

87
00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,840
Speaker 2: from the Labor Party, they've already suspended it from the

88
00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,520
Speaker 2: New South Wales branch, believe that the Right already had

89
00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:05,640
Speaker 2: the numbers there. The difference is that while the New

90
00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,880
Speaker 2: South Wales branch is still dominated by the right faction

91
00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:10,960
Speaker 2: of the Labor Party, right with a capital R and

92
00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,320
Speaker 2: a small R i E. It is the correct faction

93
00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:19,200
Speaker 2: and thank god it's in charge, the National Conference has

94
00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:24,200
Speaker 2: just recently been taken over by the left faction of

95
00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:29,440
Speaker 2: the party. And how did this happen? This happened because

96
00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:34,600
Speaker 2: the E TOU in every other state and territory of

97
00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:39,719
Speaker 2: Australia is left wing and has been so for a

98
00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:43,080
Speaker 2: very long time, except in New South Wales, where that

99
00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:48,920
Speaker 2: branch of the Union was held by the right. And

100
00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:52,040
Speaker 2: this was the case right up until a year or

101
00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,440
Speaker 2: two ago. Let's say a couple of years ago when

102
00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:59,560
Speaker 2: the left took over the right wing branch of the ETU,

103
00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,839
Speaker 2: which is the biggest state branch, being New South Wales.

104
00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:07,960
Speaker 2: And it is that takeover that flipped National Conference from

105
00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:12,719
Speaker 2: being nominally dominated by the right by a razor's edge,

106
00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:16,600
Speaker 2: to normally dominated by the left. There's all sorts of

107
00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:20,120
Speaker 2: other comings and goings on which quite frankly impossible to understand.

108
00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:26,160
Speaker 2: But either way, it was that branch, that very same

109
00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:29,080
Speaker 2: branch of that very same union that walked out on

110
00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:32,360
Speaker 2: the Prime Minister that were responsible just a couple of

111
00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:37,839
Speaker 2: years ago for flipping the National Conference from the right

112
00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:43,440
Speaker 2: to the left. Well done, well done, you, comrades. Problem is,

113
00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:49,719
Speaker 2: if the CFMEU gets disaffiliated from the party, those numbers

114
00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:54,120
Speaker 2: could flip back the other way. I haven't actually scribbled

115
00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:55,560
Speaker 2: them out on the back of a beer coaster, and

116
00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,719
Speaker 2: I'm not sure you'd probably have to bring Stephen Hawking

117
00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:01,320
Speaker 2: back from the dead in order to do that. So

118
00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,760
Speaker 2: this could have profound consequences for the makeup of the

119
00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:06,600
Speaker 2: entire labor parties a whole, because it used to be

120
00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:10,120
Speaker 2: dominated by the right pretty much in the whole country.

121
00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,720
Speaker 2: But these have been falling New South Wales is now

122
00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:17,240
Speaker 2: one of the few holdouts of right faction power in

123
00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:20,200
Speaker 2: the Labour Party South Australia as the other main one.

124
00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:22,720
Speaker 2: The rest of the states and territories have pretty much

125
00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,200
Speaker 2: gone by the wayside. Victoria because of the clean out

126
00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:29,800
Speaker 2: of the branches under Comrade Dan Chairman Dan has gone

127
00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:33,160
Speaker 2: from right to left. Queensland also because of this weird

128
00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:36,480
Speaker 2: deal that was done between the AW and the former Liquor,

129
00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:42,040
Speaker 2: Hospitality Miscellaneous Workers Union, Queensland has flipped from right to

130
00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:45,040
Speaker 2: left as well. So there's all these sort of weird

131
00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,200
Speaker 2: goings on that most people wouldn't realize was even happening,

132
00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:50,520
Speaker 2: but have profound implications for the party. And who is

133
00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:54,640
Speaker 2: the leader of those states. So the left producers Daniel

134
00:07:54,680 --> 00:08:00,480
Speaker 2: Andrews and Jacinta Allen in Victoria, produces Stephen Miles Inland,

135
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,600
Speaker 2: whereas the right produces people like Chris Min's and New

136
00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,840
Speaker 2: South Wales and Peter Meltnowskus in South Australia. I'll just

137
00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:09,880
Speaker 2: leave you to be the judge on who's doing better

138
00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:12,800
Speaker 2: in that little scenario. And of course then we've got

139
00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:18,240
Speaker 2: Prime Minister Anthony Alberizi, who is a member he's the lord,

140
00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:22,720
Speaker 2: the overlord of the left faction in New South Wales

141
00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:28,640
Speaker 2: and the nation. But of course he is behaving very

142
00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:32,040
Speaker 2: much as a member of the right winging of the

143
00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:34,120
Speaker 2: Labor Party's become much more moderate. He has become a

144
00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:37,080
Speaker 2: centrist over the past few years. He became a centrist

145
00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:39,280
Speaker 2: when he became opposition leader and out fake Bill Shorton,

146
00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:42,800
Speaker 2: who ironically was from the right but talking like someone

147
00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:45,440
Speaker 2: from the left, and Anthony Albanesi basically said, well, I

148
00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:47,040
Speaker 2: can play that game too. I'm from the left. I'm

149
00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:48,559
Speaker 2: going to talk like someone from the right and be

150
00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:54,480
Speaker 2: more conciliatory to business, less class war rhetoric, less policies

151
00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,439
Speaker 2: like the redistribution of wealth if you like, from things

152
00:08:57,520 --> 00:08:59,960
Speaker 2: like banning negative gearing, some of that. And that's how

153
00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:02,960
Speaker 2: Anthony Albanzi one. We'll be talking to the person who

154
00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:06,680
Speaker 2: actually wrote the ALP's policy platform along those lines later

155
00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:08,520
Speaker 2: in the show, so make sure you stick around for

156
00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:12,440
Speaker 2: that point. Being the Labor Party is just very, very weird.

157
00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,800
Speaker 2: It's opposite stay. Everyone's behaving like they're the opposite of

158
00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,240
Speaker 2: what they actually are. And even within the left faction,

159
00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,040
Speaker 2: this is going on. Because I hear you say Hang

160
00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:25,240
Speaker 2: on a minute. These ETU doggates are from the left

161
00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,880
Speaker 2: and Anti Albanzi is from the left. Why aren't they

162
00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:33,200
Speaker 2: getting along? Why these ETU doggets from the left walking

163
00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,800
Speaker 2: out on the speech of a left faction prime minister. Well,

164
00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:39,720
Speaker 2: there are actually two left factions. Yes, the left faction

165
00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:43,800
Speaker 2: itself is split within itself between the soft left and

166
00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:47,559
Speaker 2: the hard left. The other funny thing is though, that

167
00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:49,920
Speaker 2: the soft left is hard and the hard left is soft.

168
00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,360
Speaker 2: So the soft left used to be in charge pretty

169
00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:55,920
Speaker 2: much in New South Wales until a little guy called

170
00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:59,240
Speaker 2: Anthony Alberaneese came along and he basically took over and

171
00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,240
Speaker 2: won the top spots because he's just an amazing organizer.

172
00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:06,760
Speaker 2: He just runs the left machine. And he basically began

173
00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:10,079
Speaker 2: his meteoric rise to power through Sussex Street, through being

174
00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,439
Speaker 2: assistant General Secretary of the Labour Party and then getting

175
00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:16,559
Speaker 2: into Parliament and then eventually becoming leader of the Opposition

176
00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,120
Speaker 2: when Bill Shorten lost the unlosable election in twenty nineteen.

177
00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:20,880
Speaker 2: And now, in case you've been asleep for the last

178
00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:25,280
Speaker 2: two years, he's the Prime minister. So that is Anthony Albanezy.

179
00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:28,719
Speaker 2: He is the leader of the hard left even though

180
00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:32,880
Speaker 2: the hard left is actually softer than the soft left.

181
00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,560
Speaker 2: The soft left, also known as the Ferguson Left, is

182
00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:41,360
Speaker 2: the left that the CFMU is a member of, is

183
00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:46,600
Speaker 2: basically foundational too, and so the soft left is the

184
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:52,800
Speaker 2: faction of all those gentle, caring, soft, warm, and fuzzy

185
00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:55,839
Speaker 2: behaviors on construction sites that you might have been reading

186
00:10:55,880 --> 00:11:00,960
Speaker 2: about in recent weeks and years. So the soft left

187
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:04,439
Speaker 2: and the hard left, in keeping with all rules of politics,

188
00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,720
Speaker 2: hate each other more than they hate everybody else who's

189
00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,640
Speaker 2: further away from them politically, which is always what happens

190
00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:12,080
Speaker 2: in politics. You hate the person next to you more

191
00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:13,920
Speaker 2: than you hate the person on the opposite side of

192
00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:18,520
Speaker 2: the political spectrum. And so the ETU, who are aligned

193
00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,200
Speaker 2: with or have decided they're in love with the CFMU,

194
00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:26,440
Speaker 2: who are at war within the left faction against their

195
00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:33,040
Speaker 2: sub factional nemesis Anthony Albanezi, decided that they've got to

196
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,200
Speaker 2: get up and walk out in the middle of the

197
00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:39,680
Speaker 2: Prime Minister's speech, exactly the moment where you would think

198
00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:43,199
Speaker 2: they would be wrapped to be in the winner's circle.

199
00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:48,599
Speaker 2: Does that make sense? Absolutely not, God, I love politics.

200
00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:55,840
Speaker 2: The other big story on the weekend of course, was

201
00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:59,480
Speaker 2: the reshuffle, the cabinet reshuffle by the afore mentioned Prime

202
00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:04,360
Speaker 2: Minister Anthony Albanesi, in which, in what was an absolute

203
00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,520
Speaker 2: foregone conclusion and the worst kept secret in Australian political history,

204
00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,920
Speaker 2: Immigration Minister Andrew Giles was shafted, as was Home Affairs

205
00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,240
Speaker 2: Minister Claire O'Neill, who is the senior minister to Andrew

206
00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:17,959
Speaker 2: Giles in the Home Affairs Portfolio, which is a new

207
00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:22,840
Speaker 2: super portfolio put together by the previous government in which

208
00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:27,960
Speaker 2: Immigration sits underneath Home Affairs. So far, so good. The

209
00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:32,000
Speaker 2: problem is that, as Immigration Minister, Andrew Giles was effectively

210
00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:36,240
Speaker 2: responsible when the High Court made its decision for allowing

211
00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:42,080
Speaker 2: a whole bunch of immigration detainees who had appalling criminal

212
00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,720
Speaker 2: records loose into the community. The Government had no legislation

213
00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:49,319
Speaker 2: ready to stop them from being let out by the

214
00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:52,160
Speaker 2: High Court when it set just one free, they decided

215
00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:55,079
Speaker 2: to just set everybody free for reasons probably best known

216
00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:58,600
Speaker 2: to themselves, and then took their sweet arts time in

217
00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:02,240
Speaker 2: putting together any sort of pol response that would actually

218
00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,120
Speaker 2: stop this from happening, that would enable them to be traced,

219
00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:08,880
Speaker 2: that would enable them to be redetained in a way

220
00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:11,720
Speaker 2: that would keep the community safe, and indeed failed to

221
00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:16,560
Speaker 2: have any policy ready, even though the actual judge in

222
00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,760
Speaker 2: the court case basically told them that she was going

223
00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:24,280
Speaker 2: to do this. But anyway, I digress. Point being, Andrew

224
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:26,840
Speaker 2: Giles was always going to get shafted, by which I

225
00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:29,800
Speaker 2: mean moved sideways. And no, it's not a shafting at all,

226
00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,080
Speaker 2: because everything's totally fine. He's done a great job, and

227
00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:35,760
Speaker 2: Anthony Albanez's factional ally and apparently helps him with the

228
00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:39,600
Speaker 2: numbers in the left in Victoria. I don't really know

229
00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:41,760
Speaker 2: how that works. I'm not even sure that it works,

230
00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:44,760
Speaker 2: but anyway, that is the stories. Apparently in his inner circle.

231
00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:47,600
Speaker 2: Poor old Albo can't be perfect all the time, and

232
00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:51,599
Speaker 2: so he's gone, and he has gone to a portfolio

233
00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:55,320
Speaker 2: which probably few people even know exists. At Skills and Training.

234
00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:58,040
Speaker 2: You've never heard of it, you've never seen the minister

235
00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,160
Speaker 2: who previously represented it. Chances that you couldn't name him

236
00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:03,760
Speaker 2: in a police lineup. And he has now retired, and

237
00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:07,000
Speaker 2: godspeed and all the very best to him and his

238
00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,640
Speaker 2: family as he goes. Point being, it's a portfolio that

239
00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:13,160
Speaker 2: doesn't get into the headlines much, if at all, and

240
00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,560
Speaker 2: that is exactly where the PM obviously wants Andrew Giles.

241
00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:16,760
Speaker 3: Well.

242
00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:18,880
Speaker 2: At the same time, he can say, look, is not sacked.

243
00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,200
Speaker 2: He hasn't been forced to resign. He hasn't even been demoted.

244
00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,080
Speaker 2: He's just been moved around. A cabinet reshuffle caused by

245
00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:28,960
Speaker 2: the retirement of two ministers, that being Brendan O'Connor, the

246
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,840
Speaker 2: aforementioned Skills minister, who I'm sure you've never heard of,

247
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,960
Speaker 2: and Linda Bernie who you probably have heard of, the

248
00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:40,680
Speaker 2: Indigenous Affairs minister, who is retiring now. The other interesting

249
00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:45,320
Speaker 2: move was putting clar O'Neil, who, yes, the buck stops

250
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:49,240
Speaker 2: with her with this immigration fiasco, but doesn't appear that

251
00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:52,240
Speaker 2: she was actually personally sort of responsible for the handling

252
00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,360
Speaker 2: of it. It seems that that was Andrew Giles's stuff up.

253
00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,480
Speaker 2: But she is of course left holding the baby, so

254
00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:00,640
Speaker 2: to speak, and she therefore has to carry some of

255
00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:02,680
Speaker 2: the blame. And of course it would be a bad

256
00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,000
Speaker 2: look if you've got rid of Giles, look like you're

257
00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,760
Speaker 2: sort of throwing someone under the bus to protect the

258
00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:11,440
Speaker 2: senior minister. And so she has had to go as well.

259
00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,240
Speaker 2: She's under a lot of pressure and she goes into

260
00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:19,600
Speaker 2: a portfolio that is the very opposite of the skills

261
00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:22,320
Speaker 2: and training portfolio that Giles has gone into, where he

262
00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,400
Speaker 2: will spend a very quiet life behind a curtain somewhere.

263
00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:30,280
Speaker 2: She has gone into housing, housing and homelessness. Now normally

264
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,720
Speaker 2: this would also be that kind of backwater portfolio. In fact,

265
00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,800
Speaker 2: the last time Labor was in government, this wasn't even

266
00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:40,600
Speaker 2: a cabinet position. Tania Plippa set in fact, who has

267
00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:46,280
Speaker 2: been studiously ignored by Anthony Albertezy in part also because

268
00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:48,680
Speaker 2: of those sort of factional rivalries and the fact that

269
00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:52,000
Speaker 2: she ran as a deputy to Bill Shorten against him

270
00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:57,400
Speaker 2: in the previous Labor leadership challenge. But anyway, she took

271
00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:01,800
Speaker 2: that portfolio the last time Labor was in government and

272
00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:03,960
Speaker 2: came to government from my position, and she made it

273
00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,480
Speaker 2: her own. She worked really, really hard and she made

274
00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:09,160
Speaker 2: it fantastic. But it wasn't even in It was a ministry,

275
00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:11,680
Speaker 2: but it wasn't in cabinet the last time around. That's

276
00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:16,160
Speaker 2: how historically sort of second tier this portfolio has been.

277
00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:20,240
Speaker 2: But of course this time round, we've got a house,

278
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,160
Speaker 2: we've got a cost of living crisis, and at the

279
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:25,400
Speaker 2: very very apex of that crisis is a cost of

280
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:28,080
Speaker 2: housing crisis to the point where there's a rental crisis

281
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:31,880
Speaker 2: as well as a housing affordability crisis. It's just crisis, crisis, crisis,

282
00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:33,640
Speaker 2: and it needs to be fixed. We all know that

283
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,240
Speaker 2: the government has reached an agreement with all the states

284
00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:40,760
Speaker 2: and territories to hit this massive target of new housing

285
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,240
Speaker 2: that it is simply not going to hit. In fact,

286
00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:45,200
Speaker 2: New South Wales government has already come out and said

287
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,280
Speaker 2: that we're not going to get there, sorry, and it

288
00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,960
Speaker 2: has to do this in partnership with states, and it

289
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,200
Speaker 2: knows it can't. It knows it will almost certainly not

290
00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,760
Speaker 2: be able to meet the targets that it has set

291
00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:57,440
Speaker 2: for itself. But it's got a bloody try and it's

292
00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,160
Speaker 2: got to get somewhere otherwise it will just be an

293
00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:06,479
Speaker 2: absolute yes crisis. So what has Albow done. He's taken

294
00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:12,080
Speaker 2: a senior minister in a really really senior portfolio, someone

295
00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:13,919
Speaker 2: who has had to kind of you know, watch this

296
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,640
Speaker 2: space sign over their head for many many years. Who

297
00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,840
Speaker 2: hasn't it's fair to say, done, or as she could

298
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,639
Speaker 2: have possibly dreamed of in the portfolio, the dream portfolio

299
00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 2: she was given and so he's taken it and basically

300
00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:33,320
Speaker 2: jammed her into this other portfolio which needs an absolute miracle,

301
00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,159
Speaker 2: which needs some kind of you know, lightning bolt to

302
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,719
Speaker 2: turn it around and make things happen. And that is

303
00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,960
Speaker 2: exactly the sort of minister you want to put there.

304
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,760
Speaker 2: You basically take someone who's had a bit of the

305
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:48,040
Speaker 2: shine where off they're kind of bauble, and you say, right,

306
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:52,439
Speaker 2: here is your legacy project. Here is your chance to

307
00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:56,920
Speaker 2: redeem your reputation, to prove your metal, and to stamp

308
00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:59,840
Speaker 2: your name in the history books. And he's done it

309
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:04,600
Speaker 2: for it's the exact same thing he did with Bill Shorten. Again,

310
00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:08,280
Speaker 2: disability was once a kind of backwater portfolio. In fact,

311
00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 2: it was a portfolio. And again there's a lot of

312
00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,520
Speaker 2: history kind of repeating itself. I think Mark Twain said

313
00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:16,320
Speaker 2: history doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. There's

314
00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:20,080
Speaker 2: a lot of history rhyming here. Bill Shorten was initially

315
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:24,480
Speaker 2: really disgruntled when he got a very minor portfolio under

316
00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,120
Speaker 2: Kevin Rudd, and he was I think an assistant minister

317
00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,679
Speaker 2: with charge of disabilities. But he just went right, that's it.

318
00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:32,679
Speaker 2: And of course Bill Shorton thought he was going to

319
00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:34,800
Speaker 2: be Prime minister one day a lot of people expected

320
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:37,160
Speaker 2: him to be and he came within a bee's proverbial

321
00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:40,280
Speaker 2: appendage of being prime minister. And here he is, you know,

322
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 2: schlepping it round and this sort of human affairs portfolio

323
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:48,200
Speaker 2: at the bottom sort of rung of the ministerial ladder,

324
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:52,119
Speaker 2: and Shortened threw everything at it. And people remember him

325
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,479
Speaker 2: as being one of the best ministers for people with

326
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 2: disabilities they'd ever seen. So he took this tiny little

327
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:02,080
Speaker 2: thing and just threw everything at it. And that is

328
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:06,640
Speaker 2: exactly what he was tasked with doing. When Albow came around,

329
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:10,679
Speaker 2: unfortunately for Bill, knock Bill from the top position in

330
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:14,560
Speaker 2: the Labor Party, and Albo said, right, I'm going to

331
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:18,120
Speaker 2: take you. I'm going to stick you in the Ndies portfolio.

332
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,560
Speaker 2: You are going to and again, just like housing, you're

333
00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 2: going to fix this thing that's in absolute crisis, the

334
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 2: worst performing thing in our government and the thing that

335
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:30,919
Speaker 2: so many millions of people are completely dependent on, just

336
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 2: like housing, and you are going to go there and

337
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 2: fix it. And of course, what does Bill Shorten do?

338
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,959
Speaker 2: Goes right, I'll show him so that it might not

339
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,239
Speaker 2: be Prime minister, but this will be my legacy. This

340
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:44,119
Speaker 2: will be where my name is etched in the history books.

341
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 2: And so it's actually a really good move. You take

342
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:51,959
Speaker 2: a portfolio that's the size of whatever it is, and

343
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:56,199
Speaker 2: you shove a prime ministerial sized ego into it, and

344
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,360
Speaker 2: then you just watch that little thing go. So that's

345
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,760
Speaker 2: the thing he behind that. I think O'Neil is actually

346
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 2: a very competent minister, and I think she's done a

347
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 2: lot of other good stuff in home affairs, and she

348
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:09,119
Speaker 2: was doing great work you overhauling the migration system before

349
00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:13,320
Speaker 2: this scandal landed her feet courtesy of the immigration minister

350
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,879
Speaker 2: below her. So what can I say? Watch this space.

351
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:24,679
Speaker 2: Another interesting story I saw this week was by the

352
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,640
Speaker 2: Center for Independent Studies, which is a conservative think tank,

353
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 2: which released a report about what people think about companies

354
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,879
Speaker 2: quote unquote going woke things that are called like the

355
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 2: traditional bottom line, including environmental and social outcomes, diversity outcomes

356
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,199
Speaker 2: in the company's performance instead of just you know, how

357
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 2: much profit it makes for shareholders. And it found, perhaps unsurprisingly,

358
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 2: that most shareholders and most employees didn't really give a

359
00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 2: rats about what a company had to say on social

360
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,680
Speaker 2: or political issues. They just wanted to do their job.

361
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 2: And get out of there, or if they were shareholders,

362
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:02,919
Speaker 2: they just wanted the cash, thank you very much. And

363
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,720
Speaker 2: they did all this research that that tracked how much

364
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:10,640
Speaker 2: people were engaged with the position that the company took,

365
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 2: how much stakeholders like shareholders or employees were engaged with

366
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 2: what the company was saying about things like, for example,

367
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 2: same sex marriage or the Voice to Parliament, and it

368
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:24,400
Speaker 2: found there was absolutely and there was very minimal engagement.

369
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,920
Speaker 2: Very very few were closely time minority were really closely

370
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 2: following it, and some kind of you know, kept half

371
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 2: an eye on it. In other words, any claim that

372
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 2: these were sort of things that were driven by companies,

373
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 2: you know, shareholders demanding a stronger stance on climate change

374
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 2: or by employees wanting the company wanted to be proud

375
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,679
Speaker 2: for the company they worked for, were rubbish. It's just

376
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 2: it's just the company trying to basically boost its brand

377
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 2: and say, hey, we're not just an evil corporation. You know,

378
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,360
Speaker 2: we also really care about things. We care about the environment,

379
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 2: we care about you know, First Nations people or whatever. Whatever. Anyway,

380
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:01,119
Speaker 2: the reason I thought that was very, very interesting is

381
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 2: because I was pretty closely involved with the campaign for

382
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,360
Speaker 2: the Voice to Parliament, which was an absolute debarcle. Unfortunately,

383
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:12,919
Speaker 2: I wasn't closely involved enough it would seem, but I

384
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 2: was a very strong supporter, and I was in touch

385
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:16,880
Speaker 2: with a lot of the people who were running the campaign,

386
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:18,919
Speaker 2: and less so with a lot of people who were

387
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 2: basically sabotaging it with incredibly stupid statements and other people

388
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 2: who were just so incredibly disorganized that the whole campaign

389
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 2: fell into a hot mess. And the result of it

390
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 2: that went basically from about sixty forty people in Australia

391
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 2: being in favor of a Voice Deparliament before the campaign

392
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 2: started to about sixty forty people in Australia being against

393
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,919
Speaker 2: the Voice to Parliament by the time the campaign ended.

394
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 2: And that tells you everything you need to know about

395
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 2: a campaign when it's actually turning people away from them

396
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 2: the longer it goes on and the more they see

397
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 2: of it. And I actually there was a bloke brought

398
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 2: in sort of late in the game to try to

399
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 2: fix all these myriad problems, and unfortunately he couldn't obviously,

400
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 2: but I remember saying to him that it was just

401
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 2: terrible having all these you know, one of the really

402
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 2: big problems with the campaigns was all these big corporate

403
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 2: entities were lending all their support and all their cash

404
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 2: to this campaign, and this didn't help it at all.

405
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,879
Speaker 2: In fact, it turned people off suddenly. People and again

406
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 2: there's plenty of reasons for this, but people were saying,

407
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 2: hang on, this is my decision. I shouldn't be told

408
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 2: what I should be voting for by you know, Quantas

409
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 2: or you know, Woolworths or whatever it may be. This

410
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 2: minus in So people started to clearly say, well, f you.

411
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 2: You know, I'm just going to flip you the bird,

412
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 2: because this makes it sound like a sort of elite,

413
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 2: top down organization or an elite top down movement or

414
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 2: campaign instead of a grassroots one. It made people feel

415
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,199
Speaker 2: also that something that they might have wanted to do

416
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 2: out of the goodness of their own heart, they were

417
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:03,439
Speaker 2: now being let should to or lectured about by people

418
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 2: buy higher ups, be they in government or be they

419
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 2: in business, and that kind of just left a nasty

420
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 2: taste in their mouth. Anyway. So I say to this guy,

421
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 2: I said, mate, you've got it. Just the corporates are

422
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 2: killing this campaign. All this corporate support is destroying it.

423
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 2: And he said, I said, you've got to stop, you know, don't,

424
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 2: don't try to solicit anymore, don't try to get any more,

425
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 2: and he goes, mate, mate, we're not, We're not. I know,

426
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 2: you completely agreed. So the problem is they're all trying

427
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:34,120
Speaker 2: to jump on board, and it looks worse if we

428
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 2: say no, no, you can't because it's a bad look.

429
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 2: Imagine if that got out, and it would just be

430
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:44,199
Speaker 2: an impossible thing to say anyway. And so that I

431
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 2: think is the ultimate irony. It wasn't even the campaign

432
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 2: necessarily itself that was reaching out, and I'm sure there

433
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 2: was a bit of that quite frankly, but these corporations,

434
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 2: corporate entities, big organizations trying to say, hey, look everybody here,

435
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 2: look over here, we're in favor of the and trying

436
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 2: to attach themselves to this campaign so that it made

437
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 2: their brand look better and show everybody how caring and

438
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 2: touching feeler they were. They were like the bloke who's drowning,

439
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 2: grabbing on to the person trying to rescue him and

440
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 2: pulling him under the water as well. They became in

441
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 2: their desperation to sort of jump on board this thing,

442
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 2: they were actually pulling the whole thing down. And of

443
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 2: course we all know how that turned out. Our next

444
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 2: guest is someone who literally wrote the book on labor politics.

445
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 2: He actually wrote the New Labor platform that they took

446
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 2: to the twenty twenty two election and got elected as

447
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 2: a result of He's also a very smart cook. He's

448
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 2: a Fulbright scholar who was studying in Washington, DC, so

449
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 2: he knows everything about US politics as well. And he

450
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 2: was also a war correspondent in Ukraine during Russia's invasion

451
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 2: of it, so he's got a bit going on and

452
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 2: he joins me right now, Mission Zelenski, Welcome to the

453
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 2: real story. How are you, my friend.

454
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 3: I'm well, Joe. Good to be with you, mage.

455
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,160
Speaker 2: Mate, great to have you. First up, let's just get

456
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 2: your thoughts on the conference, the Labor conference over the weekend,

457
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,880
Speaker 2: obviously a very big weekend for labor. We had the

458
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 2: PM and the Premier address the New South Wales Conference,

459
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 2: which people were worried might explode over the Palestine issue,

460
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 2: and then of course the PM's reshuffle on the Sunday.

461
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 2: What did you make of it all?

462
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 1: Well, it was a little bit anticlimactic. So we arrived

463
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:36,880
Speaker 1: there early on, which.

464
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 2: Is a good thing, that's right.

465
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 3: That's a quiet conference is a good conference, Joe.

466
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 1: But we arrived there early Saturday morning and there's talk

467
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 1: of twenty thousand protests that security protocols are very different

468
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 1: on this occasion. A lot of police and you have

469
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,199
Speaker 1: to have a special code to get in and not

470
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 1: like in political sense, a little physical code or they

471
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:55,400
Speaker 1: got sent to you.

472
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 3: In the mail. Wow, and so but it rained and.

473
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's Trut's melt and the wet. But so

474
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,199
Speaker 1: as it turned out, there were some protests, but it

475
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 1: was not as I guess chaotic as are anticipating in

476
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 1: terms of the conference itself. You mentioned the PM was there,

477
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 1: the Premier were there. That's actually the first time since

478
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 1: nineteen forty one that Labour's.

479
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 3: Had a situation.

480
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 1: We've had a first term federal government and a first

481
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 1: term New South Wales state government at the same time.

482
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 2: Both leaders from the state of New South.

483
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 1: Wales, Curtin Chiffley and obviously mckel so a bit of

484
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 1: a quirky history, so a long time and so you

485
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 1: know in New South Wales has been out of government

486
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,479
Speaker 1: for some time now, and so it was a great feeling,

487
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:44,199
Speaker 1: to be honest, to have the PM there, to have

488
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 1: the state premier there, Anthony Alberanezi and Chris Mins.

489
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 3: It was a really good feeling to be honest overall.

490
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 2: And what did you make of the walkout of the

491
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 2: ETU delegates during the PM's a little bit.

492
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: Of I'd never notice that they left, so look, I mean,

493
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 1: people in time to do it they want.

494
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if.

495
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: Alleged corruption in the CFMU is the hill you want

496
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 1: to die on, but if people want to choose to that.

497
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 1: But ultimately it was a very small cohort of one

498
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 1: a small amount of one union, and didn't really disrupt

499
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:15,640
Speaker 1: the conference at all.

500
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 2: And you're a former top union official yourself, obviously the

501
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 2: leanings of the unions play a huge role in whether

502
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 2: or not the right or the left have the numbers

503
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 2: at both state and federal conference. The right, thank god,

504
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 2: have the numbers at state level, and the left have

505
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,199
Speaker 2: just got the edge. If the CFMU was to be

506
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 2: disaffiliated from the Labor Party, would that swing the balance

507
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 2: back in favor of the right at the national level.

508
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 1: Maybe make it right in balance again, I don't know

509
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: the exact numbers for the purest playing long at home,

510
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:49,719
Speaker 1: and I'm sure they're on the edge of their seats

511
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 1: all three labor factionalism as you are, Joe. But the

512
00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 1: CFMU in New South I was a part of a

513
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 1: different part of the left, their own part of left

514
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 1: called the soft left. Nationally, they're in sort of another

515
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 1: group called the industrial left in Victoria and other parts.

516
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: So the CFMU don't sit within the kind of hard left,

517
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 1: the Anthey, alb and easy left. They're in a little

518
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 1: bit of their own subgroup. They do tend to caucus

519
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 1: with the left nationally, but they have separately voted against

520
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 1: what the left have wanted in the past. So, for example,

521
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: going right back in history, in the twenty fifteen national

522
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 1: conference that Bill was leader talking about turnbacks at the time,

523
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 1: the CFMU voted with the right to make turn brights policy,

524
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 1: which in the end has become Labour's policy nationally. So

525
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 1: they move around a bit, but I'd suggest it's tightening

526
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 1: numbers right up again at a national level.

527
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 2: That's right. And also the CFMU is factionally split within

528
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 2: the unit itself, that's right, minding an energy division and

529
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 2: the construction division. But better stop now before we lose already. Yeah,

530
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 2: let's go to something that is absolutely never boring, which

531
00:29:58,520 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 2: is Donald J.

532
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 3: Trump.

533
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 2: How do you see the election campaign playing out now

534
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 2: that Kamala Harris is at to get their Democratic.

535
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 1: Carle mallermantum as they say. Look, I think a lot

536
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 1: of people skeptical of Kamala Harris.

537
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 3: I'm going to say that if I was choosing candidate

538
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 3: for the.

539
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 1: Democrats, and you know my feelings there, I think Donald

540
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: Trump is a clear and present threat to democracy, not

541
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 1: just the United States but ever around the world. Should

542
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 1: not be my choice of candidate. However, I think the

543
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 1: number one mood in the country leading into Joe Biden's

544
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 1: decision to not stand again for election in twenty twenty

545
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,239
Speaker 1: four for a second term, the move the electorate is

546
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 1: not so much polarized Republican Democrat, though it is.

547
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 3: It was very much not these two old blokes.

548
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 2: Yeah.

549
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 3: Now, a lot of the focuses not call that the

550
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 3: double haters, right exactly, and so people like that, this

551
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 3: can't be it.

552
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 1: We can't be getting served up a guy we threw

553
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 1: out once and a guy who's nearly eighty two asking

554
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 1: to be eighty six at the end of a second term.

555
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 1: And so I always thought the party that was able

556
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 1: to break with their incumbent first to be the party

557
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 1: to get the biggest boost. Now, the Republicans were unable

558
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 1: to shake Trump through the primaries, but with Biden doing

559
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 1: an extraordinary service. No politician gives up power willfully soon. Tho, Well,

560
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 1: I think that would have been right. I actually wrote

561
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 1: it a column in January of twenty twenty three. It

562
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: just aged very well saying that I think think Biden

563
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:24,719
Speaker 1: should run again. I think I love Joe Biden as

564
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 1: a personal hero of mine. It's fantastic politician. Is exactly

565
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 1: the style of politics that I think, you know, Senate

566
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: Left party should be very working class oriented, very economic

567
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 1: issues at the forefront. But father time undefeated, right and so,

568
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 1: but I think it's recast the election. I think with

569
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: Biden going, you can't win an election, Joe. If three

570
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 1: out of four voters don't believe you have the cognitive

571
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: capacity to be president.

572
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 2: That's right. Yeah. I don't think there's any doubt whatsoever

573
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 2: that he should have stood aside. He should have stood

574
00:31:57,680 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 2: aside a long time ago, as you have said, for

575
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 2: even longer than I've been saying. And obviously Joe Biden's listening.

576
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 3: To I think he tuned out after the factual stuff.

577
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 2: But if he's back, Yeah, but do you think Kama

578
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 2: Harris obviously is someone who has not impressed as Veep.

579
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 2: She's got a big bounce in the poles though, it's

580
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 2: got that momentum you're talking about. She's now either neck

581
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 2: and neck or probably marginally ahead.

582
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 1: Well, there's a new pole of drop today, which is

583
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 1: very interesting. Arizona Harris is head by two, but in

584
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 1: Michigan head by eleven. Yeah, Now that could be a

585
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 1: rogue poll, but I definitely think of what's consistent is

586
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 1: there's been a surge. Now, whether or not that's a

587
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 1: complete surge, but fascinating that those are two states that

588
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 1: are absolutely pivotabal Biden one Arizona and Michigan. Whoever wins

589
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 1: the election is going to need to carry those states.

590
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 1: And so I think it's real and I think the

591
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 1: relief there is a real genuine relief that there's a

592
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:52,479
Speaker 1: fresh choice.

593
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 3: Now.

594
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 1: The way these things tend to go is you get

595
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:59,239
Speaker 1: a surge, there's a great bit of excitement and then

596
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 1: people then take a second look. Now Harris will get

597
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 1: a second look at her, and that people will assess

598
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 1: her record. Now her challenge is, yes, she's not Joe Biden,

599
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,959
Speaker 1: but she's still carrying his record on inflation. And I

600
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 1: think really particularly we talked about turnbacks before on the border.

601
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 3: Yes, the border is a real big problem for the Democrats.

602
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: But I think it shows that switching candidates has paid

603
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 1: off so far. And I think if Harris goes on

604
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 1: to win, and it's a big gift. And my friends

605
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 1: are all mocking me. I said, they said, oh, you

606
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 1: think Harris can win. I said, look, Biden can't win.

607
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 1: Harris could win. Yes, And I think that we now

608
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 1: have a race. But when this is rate written, if

609
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 1: Harris was to go on and win, I think people

610
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 1: look back at the choice of JD. Vance as the

611
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: running mate for Trump. I think that was if you

612
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 1: had it over again. I think Trump's already regretting it.

613
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 2: I think he's not talking might actually swap him out,

614
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 2: But I think that's I.

615
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 3: Mean again, like he might.

616
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:55,240
Speaker 1: I mean Donald Trump made He's loydal himself and himself

617
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 1: only it's been challenging for him because now that he's

618
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 1: picked a hardcore magotype to throw.

619
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 3: Him off the ticket.

620
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 1: Trump could probably pull it off, but it would not

621
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,399
Speaker 1: be without risk. But it just shows you that how

622
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: confident they were. That was hubrious, in my opinion, to

623
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 1: select a guy who doesn't balance your ticket at all.

624
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,839
Speaker 2: Right, he's on this ticket or Donald Trump.

625
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 1: Right right, right right, and so yeah, if Trump had

626
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 1: you wouldn't do it. But if you picked Nikki Hayley,

627
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 1: that would have been a very savvy pick Trump that

628
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 1: you know what, let's just double down, go for broke,

629
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 1: and I think it's backfight and all this weird stuff.

630
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 1: What's really interesting the talking point now that the Democrats

631
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 1: seemingly are tagging really well on Trump and Advance is

632
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 1: these guys are kind of weird. They want to take

633
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 1: away abortion rights, They want to give voting rights to

634
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 1: people who have children, like you said, should be voting

635
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: on the behalf of your kids, like in a college.

636
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 2: Odd.

637
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 1: All these weird policies around women's reproductive rights, around family

638
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 1: rights all a bit odd. And this Project twenty five

639
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,720
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five stuff, which is really kind of batty

640
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,720
Speaker 1: kind of stuff. I think that's now getting the public conscious.

641
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 2: And Karmala is going really hard on abortion. Biden may

642
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's because of his Catholicism or whatever,

643
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 2: but he didn't want to go too hard on it. Yeah,

644
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,440
Speaker 2: she's not afraid to do that. It's probably easier and

645
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 2: more apt for her to do it as a woman

646
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 2: as well. Yeah, and its something that's right. Pols terribly

647
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 2: for the Republicans, doesn't it terribly terribly?

648
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:21,359
Speaker 3: You see?

649
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 1: Now, this is the thing around Trump being a great

650
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 1: election winner.

651
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 3: He's actually a real big lose.

652
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 1: He fluked in twenty sixteen, then lost terribly in twenty

653
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 1: eighteen midterms, lost in twenty twenty, and in twenty twenty two.

654
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 1: The Republicans got pumped effectively everywhere and all this special

655
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 1: election since and at top of the ticket of the debate,

656
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 1: often in special ballots or referenda, has been the question

657
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 1: of reproductive rights. And even in deep red states like Kansas,

658
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:50,479
Speaker 1: voters there have said, like, we're not for like sort

659
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:54,280
Speaker 1: of nineteen forget nineteen fifties, like eighteen hundred style laws

660
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:55,919
Speaker 1: around reproductive rights for women.

661
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:59,919
Speaker 3: It's absurd, and so there's no constituency.

662
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 1: What's happened here is the Republicans have been kind of

663
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: like the dog that called the political car for a

664
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:09,720
Speaker 1: long time. They've been promising their conservative Bible belt base

665
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 1: that yeah, yeah, will repeal Roe V. Wade, we'll get

666
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 1: rid of abortion rights. But they never thought it would

667
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 1: actually happens.

668
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:17,800
Speaker 2: Right now, everyone's going.

669
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 1: And it polls at twenty five percent popularity, So three

670
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,320
Speaker 1: and four people think it's a stupid idea, and rightly

671
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:24,280
Speaker 1: so it's nuts.

672
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 2: And this is where the problems have started to emerge

673
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,439
Speaker 2: with Trump and Project twenty twenty five. So Project twenty

674
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 2: twenty five is this ultra conservative Republican group that is

675
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 2: actually kind of to the right of Donald Trump. And

676
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 2: so Trump has actually had to say these guys, I

677
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 2: think his campaign director actually said, these guys are a

678
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 2: pain in the ass. They're actually two right wing for

679
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 2: it in But.

680
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:49,280
Speaker 1: You know who wrote that platform or Donald Trump's staffers

681
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:52,840
Speaker 1: right in the first term, and you know who wrote

682
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 1: the preface to the Project twenty twenty five drum roll

683
00:36:56,800 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 1: jd vance. So you can run, but you can't high

684
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 1: Donald when it comes to Project thirty twenty five, it is.

685
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 3: It's a problem.

686
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,479
Speaker 1: And so it's interesting that people have been talking about

687
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:08,800
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five now Project twenty twenty five for a

688
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 1: couple of years, and it's quite scary and dark.

689
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:12,720
Speaker 3: It is a real dark view of the world.

690
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 1: But it's been quite niche and it's now managed to

691
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:18,280
Speaker 1: make its way into the public consciousness. And the Democrats

692
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: been really trying to find a way to make the

693
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 1: future democracy central to their campaign. But they've talked a

694
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 1: lot about Jan six. That's been terrible. It was terrible

695
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 1: what happened on Jan. Six completely unacceptable, and you know,

696
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:30,959
Speaker 1: free and fair elections and the peaceful transfer of power

697
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 1: central to a democracy. But it's backward looking, even though

698
00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:38,839
Speaker 1: I agree it's egregious what happened that day, talking about

699
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 1: the past elections about the future, and so what twenty

700
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,399
Speaker 1: twenty five is actually look at what these guys want

701
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 1: to do if they get in. They've got a game

702
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 1: plan that's quite scary.

703
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 2: And that's obviously been working for them because the head

704
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 2: of Project twenty twenty five is basically announced in the

705
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 2: last couple of days, is just going to follow the lot.

706
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 2: It's like we're just packing up shop. We're just going

707
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 2: to disappear, like that of those state, like the Deep

708
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 2: State or one of those kind of weird spooky stores

709
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,360
Speaker 2: in the Simpsons where they turned around.

710
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I think the damage is done on that.

711
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 1: So they could delete their website, but the documentation will

712
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:15,919
Speaker 1: live on, and in a way, even just disappearing gives

713
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 1: it some other added level of mystique or scariness.

714
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 3: So I think it's in the consciousness.

715
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 2: Now.

716
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 1: Trump's quite good at running away from things that he

717
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 1: wants a distance himself from. But his problem is so

718
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 1: much of the Republican base rallied around this concept of

719
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 1: tearing apart of the government, removing people's civil rights, fiddling

720
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 1: with electoral systems. So I think that's a real, real

721
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 1: electoral millstone around his neck.

722
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 2: And we saw that a bit in the midterms in

723
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, didn't we When the platform that you

724
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 2: had to have to get pre selected as a candidate

725
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:49,840
Speaker 2: by the Trumpian Republican Party was anathema to a platform

726
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 2: that could get you elected at a general election, So

727
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:54,320
Speaker 2: people couldn't get people who could win a general election,

728
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 2: couldn't win the pre selection to run in a general election.

729
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 3: Correct, suffering from that himself. Correct.

730
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:02,800
Speaker 1: Then they blew a number of Senate seats and House seats.

731
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 1: The everyone's talking about there'd be a red wave in

732
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two because of inflation, etc.

733
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 3: Didn't happen. Why, quality of candidates too far gone?

734
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:12,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, they were just really bad candidates in general election,

735
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 1: because the truth of the matter is, we talk a

736
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 1: lot about us being polarized, but people still want relatively

737
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 1: mainstream people to talk about their issues, not about odd

738
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 1: grievances that are very niche and fringe is just what

739
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 1: a lot of the MAGA stuff is. It's fringe stuff.

740
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 2: So Trump has been pulling back and JD. Vance has

741
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 2: been pulling his head in a bit about stuff that

742
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:35,320
Speaker 2: he said that was both to the right and to

743
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:37,839
Speaker 2: the left of Trump. It's this weird, really weird mixed bag.

744
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 2: But you know, on the abortion issue, for example, you know,

745
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 2: Trump has said he's not going to ban the abortion pill,

746
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 2: that a lot is the most common form in the US,

747
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 2: but Project twenty twenty five wanted to, which is an

748
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 2: example of why they were far to the right of

749
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 2: him on what could be a really hot button, bring

750
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 2: out the vote issue. Let's say Donald Trump does kind

751
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,839
Speaker 2: of continue a pace get rid of Project twenty twenty five.

752
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 2: He tries to present as a more moderate candidate, which

753
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 2: I struggled to articulate because it was in the same

754
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:13,280
Speaker 2: sense as Donald Trump. But he's amazingly charismatic, he's amazingly entertaining.

755
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: He's amazingly good at getting momentum and getting attention. Is Karmela,

756
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 2: do you reckon at the high watermark? Is this the

757
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 2: honeymoon the sugar hit? And then it sort of tapers

758
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 2: down and it's all a question of where it meets

759
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 2: Trump or how do you think it plays out from

760
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 2: here on?

761
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 1: It? Well, it all comes out to swing states, all right,

762
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 1: And so I think we talked about the Poli Michigan.

763
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:35,280
Speaker 1: That's interesting because Biden was behind in all the swing

764
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 1: states after the debate.

765
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 3: He just called back actually to be in front in

766
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 3: enough of them.

767
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 1: So really it's going to come down to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

768
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 2: She's going up to Georgia now as well.

769
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, George will be potentially in play because of one

770
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 1: of the things that had happened over the last four

771
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 1: years was the softening of support in the vote amongst

772
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 1: black voters, particularly young black men. So she's called back

773
00:40:58,120 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 1: some of that, though not all of us. That will

774
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 1: bring Georgia with a larger black population. But I think fundamentally,

775
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 1: I think some of this is going to come down

776
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 1: to money and organizing, clearly, but also it'll come down

777
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 1: to is the election about the future. If the election

778
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 1: is considered to be about the future, then I think

779
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,839
Speaker 1: people will rally around Harris. But if it's becomes a

780
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: referendum on how the Biden predecesdency has gone and whether

781
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 1: or not if the focus is on that are you

782
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,160
Speaker 1: better off today than you were four years ago, then

783
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:32,239
Speaker 1: I think then Trump has a chance. But at this

784
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 1: point it's an even race. I think Harris has had

785
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,959
Speaker 1: a surge that will naturally drop down. The big choice

786
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:42,760
Speaker 1: for her now is VP, and she's got some interesting choices.

787
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,479
Speaker 3: There's do you go with a balancing option?

788
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: As we talked about an old white guy, right, is

789
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 1: kind of do you go with the Mark Kelly, who's

790
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 1: the Arizona Senator, who's a top gun fighter pilot.

791
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:56,839
Speaker 2: Was going to say, an astronaut's just looking at him.

792
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,280
Speaker 2: He's got the combat jacket yet.

793
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 1: From a border state, so he understands migration. But then

794
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,279
Speaker 1: people might say, well, does that only highlight the fact

795
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 1: that as inverted commas, Joe Biden's borders are that Harris

796
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 1: doesn't have a good record on migration. Do you go

797
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 1: with someone like Josh Shapiro, who's really charismatic governor of Pennsylvania,

798
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:22,839
Speaker 1: brilliant having said that he's a Jewish guy, and so.

799
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 3: There's a view.

800
00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:25,839
Speaker 1: Do you have a minority candidate in a black woman

801
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 1: at the top of the ticket and a Jewish character,

802
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 1: a Jewish a leader at the bottom of the ticket.

803
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:32,319
Speaker 1: What does that then do in Michigan where there's a

804
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 1: very large Muslim vote there. So it's complex and every

805
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:40,800
Speaker 1: choice you make there's trade offs. Pete Boudaget is another option.

806
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:46,760
Speaker 1: He's the Secretary for Transport, brilliant guy, but really probably

807
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,800
Speaker 1: the best communicator in the Democratic Party. But he's also

808
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,840
Speaker 1: openly gay guy. And the question is is America ready

809
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 1: for I guess a lot of change. He's a black

810
00:42:57,520 --> 00:42:58,879
Speaker 1: woman president and a gay guy.

811
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:03,239
Speaker 2: Definitely run Pete Bodagig against anyone but Donald Trump. Maybe

812
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:04,319
Speaker 2: that's right, but when?

813
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 1: And he's a young guy and he's got time. But

814
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 1: these are the choices, and all those choices will feed

815
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 1: into it. You know, if I had to better see

816
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: either Kelly or Shapiro, and you maybe give a Shapiro

817
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:17,360
Speaker 1: because for Harris to win, she has to carry Pennsylvania.

818
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 1: If she carries Pennsylvania, Trump's toast pretty much. And so

819
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 1: Shapiro is very.

820
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 2: Popular and does the fact that he's Jewish ameliorate her

821
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,280
Speaker 2: hardline stance against Israel.

822
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:28,279
Speaker 3: Maybe maybe that's right.

823
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: But at the same time, one of the things that

824
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 1: was a drag for Biden was young voters having been

825
00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 1: very aggrieved about what they were seeing in Gaza, and

826
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 1: so as a result, you were seeing quite a bit

827
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 1: of softening in support for Biden. One he's an old

828
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 1: guy and two, you know, on the campuses, there's a

829
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:47,239
Speaker 1: lot of support for you know, the Palestinian cause, and

830
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:52,479
Speaker 1: but particular it's very very large Muslim Arab world diaspora there,

831
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 1: and they had did there was the writing campaign not

832
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 1: essentially vote for No. One and that was like one

833
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:00,080
Speaker 1: hundred thousand people, and you know the vote there is

834
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 1: only carried by around ten thousand, so they could be

835
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 1: definitive there.

836
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, these things are always and.

837
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 2: I think more hard young voters have just signed up

838
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 2: after KRMLO basically picked up the torch. Yeah, registered to vote,

839
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:17,239
Speaker 2: I should say yeah. Mission Zelinski national Security nerd extraordinaiir

840
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 2: foreign extraordined air fulbright scholar from Washington, DC, Labor Party insider,

841
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 2: Labor Party gospel writers outside of these days, a former

842
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 2: top union official, the power behind the throne at the

843
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 2: Almighty AWU. Thank you so much for joining us on

844
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 2: the real story.

845
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 3: Thanks so much your great opportunity to plug the book.

846
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 1: Mate, The Sun Will Rise, Available in all bookstores or

847
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 1: on Amazon or wherever you buy a book.

848
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 3: Say so much. Joe loves it. He hasn't read it, but.

849
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:46,240
Speaker 2: Look, couldn't have said it better myself.

850
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 3: Mate. It's a short read, so be over mercifully quickly.

851
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:52,239
Speaker 2: If you don't like it. It's so good that I'm

852
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:53,920
Speaker 2: saying no, do go and get this book. It is

853
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 2: absolutely fantastic. Speak to cham cheers. As I said, we

854
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:00,959
Speaker 2: had a super bumper show this this week and we've

855
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:03,840
Speaker 2: gone right over time. But I do just want to

856
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 2: get to one question, and that's from Richie Melb. He says,

857
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 2: is Joe Hildebrand going to comb his hair? No? And

858
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:14,279
Speaker 2: that's really all we have time for today. Thank you

859
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 2: so much for listening to the real story. If you

860
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 2: love what you hear, or even if you just like

861
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:21,399
Speaker 2: what you hear, it's in the friend zone. Just leave

862
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 2: us a rating and a review. If you hate what

863
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 2: you hear, do not tell us soul, Do not put

864
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:29,239
Speaker 2: it in writing. Take that secret to your grave. If

865
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 2: you want to reach out to us or ask us

866
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 2: a question, ask me anything, seriously, that's a good name

867
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 2: for TV show. Actually, I might just make a note

868
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 2: of that. You can drop me an email the Real

869
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:40,800
Speaker 2: Story at Nova podcast dot com dot au, or you

870
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,760
Speaker 2: can just send me a DM on Instagram. My handle

871
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:47,399
Speaker 2: is at Joe Underscore Hildebrand. And if you can't get

872
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 2: enough of me, I've got columns of course in the

873
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 2: Daily Telegraph every Monday and every Saturday until the day

874
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 2: I die. I'll chat to you next week.